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At least 1,657 records · Page 92

Reliability Analysis and Reliability-Based Design Optimization of Circular Composite Cylinders Under Axial Compression

This report describes the preliminary results of an investigation on component reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization of thin-walled circular composite cylinders with average diameter and average length of 15 inches. Structural reliability is based on axial buckling strength of the cylinder. Both Monte Carlo simulation and First Order Reliability Method are considered for reliability analysis with the latter incorporated into the reliability-based structural optimization problem. To improve the efficiency of reliability sensitivity analysis and design optimization solution, the buckling strength of the cylinder is estimated using a second-order response surface model. The sensitivity of the reliability index with respect to the mean and standard deviation of each random variable is calculated and compared. The reliability index is found to be extremely sensitive to the applied load and elastic modulus of the material in the fiber direction. The cylinder diameter was found to have the third highest impact on the reliability index. Also the uncertainty in the applied load, captured by examining different values for its coefficient of variation, is found to have a large influence on cylinder reliability. The optimization problem for minimum weight is solved subject to a design constraint on element reliability index. The methodology, solution procedure and optimization results are included in this report.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud↗

Probing the antiknock effect of anisole through an ignition, speciation and modeling study of its blends with isooctane

In order to unravel the reaction pathways relevant to anisole co-oxidation within a fuel blend, a detailed study of isooctane/anisole blends was performed with the ULille RCM. Ignition delays as well as mole fraction profiles were measured during a two-stage ignition delay using sampling and GC techniques. These results are used to validate a kinetic model developed from ab initio calculations for the most relevant rate constants which included H-atom abstraction reactions from anisole, and reactions on the potential energy surfaces of methoxyphenyl + O 2 and anisyl + O 2 . Pressure dependent rate constants were computed for the methoxyphenyl + O 2 and anisyl + O 2 reactive systems using master equation code analysis. The new kinetic model shows good agreement with the experimental data. Dual brute-force sensitivity analysis was performed, on both first- and second-stages of ignition, allowing the identification of the most important reactions in the prediction of both ignition delays. It was observed that while pure anisole does not show NTC behavior, a 60/40 isooctane/anisole blend displays such behavior, as well as two-stage ignition. This suggests anisole addition may not be as beneficial to knock resistance as expected from its high octane number. The kinetic modeling results demonstrate the importance of H-abstraction reactions both from the methoxy group and from the aryl ring in ortho-position and the addition of the resultant radicals to O2, mostly leading to the formation of polar or non-aromatic products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sensitivity of magnetic islands in permanent magnet stellarators using the gradient and Hessian methods

Stellarator plasmas are known to be very sensitive to perturbations in the magnetic field. The permanent magnet stellarator was in part developed as a solution to high machining tolerances placed on the shape properties of electromagnetic coils in traditional stellarators. However, as a consequence of this high sensitivity to the field structure, sensitivities of permanent magnet stellarator plasmas to perturbations of permanent magnet properties must necessarily be well-understood. The gradient and Hessian matrix methods have been previously demonstrated to be useful sensitivity analysis methods for modular coils. We apply these two methods to the study of island width sensitivities in both the MUSE and PM4STELL permanent magnet stellarator projects. These sensitivity methods were used to determine the relative impacts of permanent magnet parameter perturbations on island widths in the vacuum field approximation of both stellarator equilibria. The square of resonant magnetic field perturbation is used here as a proxy for island width. In particular, gradients of magnetizations of individual magnets were examined in MUSE, as well as gradients of magnet group displacements informed by device design. Three different forms of permanent magnet magnetization perturbations are investigated for MUSE, and the flux surface response to perturbations is demonstrated. The Hessian matrix method is applied to PM4STELL, illustrating the sensitivity of dominant island widths to displacements of toroidal wedge structures. These methods allow for selective direction of experimental resources toward regions of heightened sensitivity, while constraints on less impactful permanent magnet parameters can be relaxed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Calibration of reactive burn and Jones-Wilkins-Lee parameters for simulations of a detonation-driven flow experiment with uncertainty quantification

Here, uncertainties in the explosive-specific parameters of the Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) equation of state (EOS) are carefully considered in hydrodynamic simulations of an explosive experiment to minimize the error in the flow prediction. Experimental data of the leading shock position in the transverse direction over time serves as the prediction metric for quantifying simulation prediction error. The uncertainty quantification technique, global sensitivity analysis, is utilized to determine the JWL parameters to which the transverse shock propagation is most sensitive. A polynomial response surface (PRS) is constructed in the space of the most influential JWL parameters, and the point of minimum error between the experimental data and the PRS yields calibrated JWL parameters for the experimental flow. The simulation results following the parameter calibration show good agreement with the experimental data. It was found that two significant parameters, the heat release per unit mass of reactant Q and JWL model exponent R 1 are strongly related, which makes it difficult to identify accurate values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simulation-Length Requirements in the Loads Analysis of Offshore Floating Wind Turbines: Preprint

The goal of this paper is to examine the appropriate length of a floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) simulation - a fundamental question that needs to be answered to develop design requirements. To examine this issue, a loads analysis of an example FOWT was performed in FAST with varying simulation lengths. The offshore wind system used was the OC3-Hywind spar buoy, which was developed for use in the International Energy Agency Code Comparison Collaborative Project and supports NREL's offshore 5-megawatt baseline turbine. Realistic metocean data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and repeated periodic wind files were used to excite the structure. The results of the analysis clearly show that loads do not increase for longer simulations. In regards to fatigue, a sensitivity analysis shows that the procedure used for counting half cycles is more important than the simulation length itself. Based on these results, neither the simulation length nor the periodic wind files affect response statistics and loads for FOWTs (at least for the spar studied here); a result in contrast to the offshore oil and gas industry, where running simulations of at least 3 hours in length is common practice.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Derivatives of buckling loads and vibration frequencies with respect to stiffness and initial strain parameters

A uniform variational approach to sensitivity analysis of vibration frequencies and bifurcation loads of nonlinear structures is developed. Two methods of calculating the sensitivities of bifurcation buckling loads and vibration frequencies of nonlinear structures, with respect to stiffness and initial strain parameters, are presented. A direct method requires calculation of derivatives of the prebuckling state with respect to these parameters. An adjoint method bypasses the need for these derivatives by using instead the strain field associated with the second-order postbuckling state. An operator notation is used and the derivation is based on the principle of virtual work. The derivative computations are easily implemented in structural analysis programs. This is demonstrated by examples using a general purpose, finite element program and a shell-of-revolution program.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗

Lunar Exploration Architecture Level Key Drivers and Sensitivities

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented.

Goodliff, Kandyce↗

A Mechanistic Model for Relative Permeability of Gas and Water Flow in Hydrate-Bearing Porous Media With Capillarity

Lack of mechanistic models to describe petrophysical properties of mobile phases in gas hydrate–bearing sediments is one of the key challenges in accurately predicting gas production. The major drawback of empirical models that are used to fit a relative permeability curve for mobile phases in gas hydrate–bearing sediments is that they are based on experimental data, which are limited, and not able to account for hydrate morphology in pore space. This study proposes a relative permeability model that is mechanistic in nature and developed to account capillarity by building on the original nonempirical relative permeability model that assumes negligible capillary pressure. The proposed model implicitly accounts for capillarity with the help of four empirical parameters (two for each mobile phase) that incorporate each mobile phase pressure. It is shown that the proposed model provides an improved match to relative permeability data (derived from pore–scale simulation of gas hydrate–bearing sediments) than nonempirical relative permeability by accounting for the effect of capillary pressure. Additionally, unlike fully empirical models that can predict relative permeabilities reliably only at gas hydrate saturations for which experimental data are available, the proposed model only requires fitting the empirical parameters once with experimental data at any single gas hydrate saturation and then it can then be used to predict relative permeability at any gas hydrate saturation. Here, the mechanistic nature of the proposed model allows studying relative permeability of hydrate–bearing sediments as a function of hydrate morphology and wettability (fluid phase distribution) besides other physical parameters of the model (e.g., porosity, gas, and water residual saturation). Based on the sensitivity analysis of different hydrate morphologies on gas/water relative permeability, it is found that gas relative permeability is sensitive to hydrate morphologies, while water relative permeability shows little dependency on hydrate localization in pore space.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Preemptive Voltage Monitoring and Control Using Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivities

Increased penetration levels of distributed variable renewable generation can cause random voltage fluctuations and violations at multiple nodes. Traditional methods of voltage control typically involve reactionary responses of capacitor banks, tap changers, and recently even smart inverters. But because of the lack of foresight in voltage violations, these controls are ineffective to completely mitigate the issue. Therefore, new methods of predicting voltage violations subject to random power injection changes in the distribution network are needed, which can be used to guide optimal and dynamic methods of voltage control. This work lays the foundation for such preemptive voltage monitoring and control by proposing an analytical and sensor data-driven voltage sensitivity analysis method. Driven by stochastic data and forecasts, the method can be used to develop probabilistic voltage sensitivities and consequently to predict system nodes with high likelihood of voltage limit violations. The effectiveness of this method is tested on IEEE 69-node distribution system integrated with distributed solar. The results demonstrate the proposed method's ability to successfully predict nodes with high probability of voltage violations for a specific time-series simulation. The results also demonstrate the ability to guide timely power injection control actions to mitigate future voltage violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

CFD Variability for a Civil Transport Aircraft Near Buffet-Onset Conditions

A CFD sensitivity analysis is conducted for an aircraft at several conditions, including flow with substantial separation (buffet onset). The sensitivity is studied using two different Navier-Stokes computer codes, three different turbulence models, and two different grid treatments of the wing trailing edge. This effort is a follow-on to an earlier study of CFD variation over a different aircraft in buffet onset conditions. Similar to the earlier study, the turbulence model is found to have the largest effect, with a variation of 3.8% in lift at the buffet onset angle of attack. Drag and moment variation are 2.9% and 23.6%, respectively. The variations due to code and trailing edge cap grid are smaller than that due to turbulence model. Overall, the combined approximate error band in CFD due to code, turbulence model, and trailing edge treatment at the buffet onset angle of attack are: 4% in lift, 3% in drag, and 31% in moment. The CFD results show similar trends to flight test data, but also exhibit a lift curve break not seen in the data.

Rumsey, Christopher L.↗

NAVIGATION PERFORMANCE IN HIGH EARTH ORBITS USING NAVIGATOR GPS RECEIVER

NASA GSFC has developed a GPS receiver that can acquire and track GPS signals with sensitivity significantly lower than conventional GPS receivers. This opens up the possibility of using GPS based navigation for missions in high altitude orbit, such as Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) in a geostationary orbit, and the Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) Mission, in highly eccentric orbits extending to 12 Earth radii and higher. Indeed much research has been performed to study the feasibility of using GPS navigation in high Earth orbits and the performance achievable. Recently, GSFC has conducted a series of hardware in-the-loop tests to assess the performance of this new GPS receiver in various high Earth orbits of interest. Tracking GPS signals to down to approximately 22-25 dB-Hz, including signals from the GPS transmitter side-lobes, steady-state navigation performance in a geostationary orbit is on the order of 10 meters. This paper presents the results of these tests, as well as sensitivity analysis to such factors as ionosphere masks, use of GPS side-lobe signals, and GPS receiver sensitivity.

Bamford, William↗

Data-Driven Preemptive Voltage Monitoring and Control Using Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivities: Preprint

Increased penetration of distributed variable re-newable generation may cause random voltage fluctuations and violations at multiple nodes. Traditional methods of voltage control typically involve reactionary responses of capacitor banks, tap changers, and recently even smart inverters. But due to the lack of foresight in voltage violations, these controls are ineffective to completely mitigate the issue. Therefore, new methods of predicting voltage violations subject to random power injection changes in the distribution network is needed, which can be used to guide optimal and dynamic methods of voltage control. This work lays the foundation for such preemptive voltage monitoring and control by proposing an analytical and sensor data-driven voltage sensitivity analysis method. Driven by stochastic data and forecasts, the method can be used to develop probabilistic voltage sensitivities and consequently to predict system nodes with high likelihood of voltage limit violations. The effectiveness of this method is tested on IEEE 69 node distribution system integrated with distributed solar. The results demonstrate the proposed method's ability to successfully predict nodes with high probability of voltage violations for a specific time series simulation. The results also demonstrate the ability to guide timely power injection control actions to mitigate future voltage violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mid-L/D Lifting Body Entry Demise Analysis

The mid-lift-to-drag ratio (mid-L/D) lifting body is a fully autonomous spacecraft under design at NASA for enabling a rapid return of scientific payloads from the International Space Station (ISS). For contingency planning and risk assessment for the Earth-return trajectory, an entry demise analysis was performed to examine three potential failure scenarios: (1) nominal entry interface conditions with loss of control, (2) controlled entry at maximum flight path angle, and (3) controlled entry at minimum flight path angle. The objectives of the analysis were to predict the spacecraft breakup sequence and timeline, determine debris survival, and calculate the debris dispersion footprint. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to determine the effect of the initial pitch rate on the spacecraft stability and breakup during the entry. This report describes the mid-L/D lifting body and presents the results of the entry demise and sensitivity analyses.

Ling, Lisa↗

A hybrid data–model approach to map soil thickness in mountain hillslopes

Abstract. Soil thickness plays a central role in the interactions between vegetation, soils, and topography, where it controls the retention and release of water, carbon, nitrogen, and metals. However, mapping soil thickness, here defined as the mobile regolith layer, at high spatial resolution remains challenging. Here, we develop a hybrid model that combines a process-based model and empirical relationships to estimate the spatial heterogeneity of soil thickness with fine spatial resolution (0.5 m). We apply this model to two aspects of hillslopes (southwest- and northeast-facing, respectively) in the East River watershed in Colorado. Two independent measurement methods – auger and cone penetrometer – are used to sample soil thickness at 78 locations to calibrate the local value of unconstrained parameters within the hybrid model. Sensitivity analysis using the hybrid model reveals that the diffusion coefficient used in hillslope diffusion modeling has the largest sensitivity among all input parameters. In addition, our results from both sampling and modeling show that, in general, the northeast-facing hillslope has a deeper soil layer than the southwest-facing hillslope. By comparing the soil thickness estimated between a machine-learning approach and this hybrid model, the hybrid model provides higher accuracy and requires less sampling data. Modeling results further reveal that the southwest-facing hillslope has a slightly faster surface soil erosion rate and soil production rate than the northeast-facing hillslope, which suggests that the relatively less dense vegetation cover and drier surface soils on the southwest-facing slopes influence soil properties. With seven parameters in total for calibration, this hybrid model can provide a realistic soil thickness map with a relatively small amount of sampling dataset comparing to machine-learning approach. Integrating process-based modeling and statistical analysis not only provides a thorough understanding of the fundamental mechanisms for soil thickness prediction but also integrates the strengths of both statistical approaches and process-based modeling approaches.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantitative Extraction and Mass Spectrometry Analysis at a Single-Cell Level

Quantitative live cell mass spectrometry analysis at a subcellular level requires the precisely controlled extraction of subpicoliter volumes of material from the cell, sensitive analysis of the extracted analytes, and their accurate quantification without prior separation. In this study, we demonstrate that localized electroosmotic extraction provides a direct path to addressing this challenge. Specifically, we demonstrate quantitative mass spectrometry analysis of biomolecules in picoliter volumes extracted from live cells. Electroosmotic extraction was performed using two electrodes and a finely pulled nanopipette with tip diameter of <1 µm containing a hydrophobic electrolyte compatible with mass spectrometry analysis. The electroosmotic drag was used to drive analytes out of the cell into the nanopipette. Analyte molecules extracted both from solutions and cell samples were analyzed using nanoelectrospray ionization (nanoESI) directly from the nanopipette into a mass spectrometer. More than 50 metabolites including sugars and flavonoids were detected in positive mode in 2-5 pL volumes of the cytoplasmic material extracted from Allium cepa. Quantification of the extracted glucose was performed using sequential extraction of a known volume of the aqueous solution containing glucose-d2 standard of known concentration. We found that the ratio of the signal of glucose to glucose-d2 increased linearly with glucose concentration. This observation indicates that the approach developed in this study enables quantitative analysis of small volumes of metabolites extracted from cells. Furthermore, we observed efficient separation of hydrophilic and hydrophobic analytes through partitioning into the aqueous and hydrophobic electrolyte phase, respectively, which provides additional important information on the molecular properties of extracted metabolites.

Yin, Ruichuan↗

Evaluation of Rail Decarbonization Alternatives: Framework and Application

The Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework is a comprehensive industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies including biofuels, e-fuels, battery-electric, and hydrogen locomotives. By classifying fuel types into two categories based on deployment requirements, the associated optimal charging/fueling facility location and sizing problem are solved with a five-step framework. Life-cycle analysis (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) are used to estimate carbon reduction, capital investments, cost of carbon reduction, and operational impacts, enabling sensitivity analysis with operational and technological parameters. Here, the framework is illustrated on lower-carbon drop-in fuels as well as battery-electric technology deployments for the US Eastern and Western Class I railroad networks. Drop-in fuel deployments are modeled as admixtures with diesel in existing locomotives, while battery-electric deployments are shown for varying technology penetration levels and locomotive ranges. When mixed in a 50% ratio with diesel, results show biodiesel’s capacity to reduce emissions at 36% with a cost of $\$$ 0.13 per kilogram of CO 2 reduced, while e-fuels offer a potential reduction of 50% of emissions at a cost of $\$$ 0.22 per kilogram of CO 2 reduced. Battery-electric results for 50% deployment over all ton-miles highlight the value of future innovations in battery energy densities as scenarios assuming 800-mi range locomotives show an estimated emissions reduction of 46% with a cost of $\$$ 0.06 per kilogram of CO 2 reduced, compared with 16% emissions reduction at a cost of $\$$ 0.11 per kilogram of CO 2 reduced for 400-mi range locomotives. The NUFRIEND framework provides a systematic method for comparing different alternative energy technologies and identifying potential challenges and benefits in their future deployments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Effects of Gasoline Composition and Operating Parameters on the Response of End-Gas Autoignition to Nitric Oxide in a Lean-Burn DI-SI Engine

Lean operation of spark-ignition engines can lead to engine thermal efficiency gains and lower NOx emissions due to reduced combustion temperatures. Yet, lean operation could still face challenges in end-gas autoignition and knock generation due to higher intake pressures and trapped NO in the residual gas. Here, this study evaluates the impact of NO on end-gas autoignition for two gasoline fuels with similar octane rating but different composition: high cycloalkane fuel (HCA) and high olefin fuel (HO). Experiments were performed at stoichiometric and lean (λ = 2) conditions and at two engine speeds of 1400 rpm and 2000 rpm. Accompanying chemical kinetics simulations in CHEMKIN revealed that the mechanisms controlling the effect of NO on autoignition are similar λ = 2 and λ = 1, with NO + HO 2 = NO 2 + OH being the main pathway for enhancing reactivity by promoting low-temperature heat release (LTHR). The compositionally different fuels reacted differently to NO seeding and engine speed, and differences were augmented at λ = 2 compared to λ = 1 as the end-gas autoignition shifted to the low temperature regime. HO, which has inherent low temperature chemistry, was strongly impacted by engine speed at low NO seeding levels, with no noticeable peak of LTHR detected at 2000 rpm. On the other hand, LTHR of HCA was marginally affected by shortened residence time at higher engine speed as NO + HO 2 reaction was not greatly affected by shorter time scales, since HO 2 production was sustained even at 2000 rpm to support OH generation from NO + HO 2 . Contrary to HO, HCA exhibited greater sensitivity to NO seeding, as the increased OH production at higher NO concentrations offset the OH-quenching effect of cyclopentane, which accounts for 28.6% of HCA’s composition. Consequently, a sensitivity analysis revealed that fuels with weak inherent low-temperature chemistry, like HCA, are likely to be more sensitive to variations in NO concentration and charge temperature, whereas fuels with strong low temperature chemistry are more sensitive to variations in end-gas λ and intake pressure.

Energy↗