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The use of a sensitivity equation method to computer derivatives for optimization based design algorithms are discussed. The problem of designing an optimal forebody simulator is used to motivate the algorithm and to illustrate the basic ideas. Finally, how an existing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code can be modified to compute sensitivities and a numerical example is presented.
The sensitivities of oxygen-dimer (O4) slant column densities (SCDs) to changes in aerosol layer height are investigated using the simulated radiances by a radiative transfer model, the linearized pseudo-spherical vector discrete ordinate radiative transfer (VLIDORT), and the differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) technique. The sensitivities of the O4 index (O4I), which is defined as dividing O4 SCD by 10(sup 40) molecules (sup 2) per centimeters(sup -5), to aerosol types and optical properties are also evaluated and compared. Among the O4 absorption bands at 340, 360, 380, and 477 nanometers, the O4 absorption band at 477 nanometers is found to be the most suitable to retrieve the aerosol effective height. However, the O4I at 477 nanometers is significantly influenced not only by the aerosol layer effective height but also by aerosol vertical profiles, optical properties including single scattering albedo (SSA), aerosol optical depth (AOD), particle size, and surface albedo. Overall, the error of the retrieved aerosol effective height is estimated to be 1276, 846, and 739 meters for dust, non-absorbing, and absorbing aerosol, respectively, assuming knowledge on the aerosol vertical distribution shape. Using radiance data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), a new algorithm is developed to derive the aerosol effective height over East Asia after the determination of the aerosol type and AOD from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). About 80 percent of retrieved aerosol effective heights are within the error range of 1 kilometer compared to those obtained from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) measurements on thick aerosol layer cases.
Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific in austral spring and summer. Previous work found an enhancement in planetary wave activity in the South Pacific in austral spring, and a warming of 3-5 K in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during austral summer, in WPEN events as compared with ENSO neutral. In this presentation, we show that weakening of the Antarctic vortex during WPEN affects the structure and magnitude of high-latitude total ozone. We use total ozone data from TOMS and OMI, as well as station data from Argentina and Antarctica, to identify shifts in the longitudinal location of the springtime ozone minimum from its climatological position. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of the WPEN-related ozone response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). We then compare the observed response to WPEN events with Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model, version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) simulations. Two, 50-year time-slice simulations are forced by annually repeating SST and sea ice climatologies, one set representing observed WPEN events and the second set representing neutral ENSO events, in a present-day climate. By comparing the two simulations, we isolate the impact of WPEN events on lower stratospheric ozone, and furthermore, examine the sensitivity of the WPEN ozone response to the phase of the QBO.
The helicopter Microwave Landing System flight-test investigations, conducted by a joint NASA/FAA effort in order to gather statistical data for establishing terminal instrument procedures criteria, and to provide a performance data base for developing advanced MLS guidance concepts, are presented. The specific flight-test objectives were to: (1) develop acceptable angle-only MLS approach profiles; (2) determine tracking errors; (3) determine altitude loss during missed approach; (4) evaluate guidance display sensitivities; and (5) evaluate pilot acceptability. Fourteen pilots flew 140 manual (without stability augmentation) dual-pilot simulated instrument approaches in a UH-1H helicopter. The flight profiles flown included 3-, 6-, and 9-degree glideslope, centerline approaches to decision heights of 50, 100, and 150 ft, respectively. The angular guidance display sensitivities and the data acquisition system are also described. Eight major conclusions are made, and include the following: (1) the use of pitch attitude to control airspeed and collective to control glideslope was the preferred pilot technique for the steep glideslope approaches, and (2) angular guidance deviation indicator sensitivity requirements for helicopter MLS approaches to STOLports and heliports have been found to be significantly different from standard ILS sensitivities.
This study synthesizes the results of 13 high-resolution simulations of deep convective updrafts forming over idealized terrain using environments observed during the RELAMPAGO and CACTI field projects. Using composite soundings from multiple observed cases, and variations upon them, we explore the sensitivity of updraft properties (e.g., size, buoyancy, and vertical pressure gradient forces) to influences of environmental relative humidity, wind shear, and mesoscale orographic forcing that support or suppress deep convection initiation (CI). Emphasis is placed on differentiating physical processes affecting the development of updrafts (e.g., entrainment-driven dilution of updrafts) in environments typifying observed successful and null (i.e., no CI despite affirmative operational forecasts) CI events. Thermally-induced mesoscale orographic lift favors the production of deep updrafts originating from ~1–2-km-wide boundary layer thermals. Simulations without terrain forcing required much larger ( ~5-km-wide) thermals to yield precipitating convection. CI outcome was quite sensitive to environmental relative humidity; updrafts with increased buoyancy, depth, and intensity thrived in otherwise inhospitable environments by simply increasing the free tropospheric relative humidity. This implicates the entrainment of free-tropospheric air into updrafts as a prominent governor of CI, consistent with previous studies. Sensitivity of CI to the environmental wind is manifested by: 1) low-level flow affecting the strength and depth of mesoscale convergence along the terrain, and 2) clouds encountering updraft-suppressing pressure gradient forces while interacting with vertical wind shear in the free-troposphere. Among the ensemble of thermals occurring in each simulation, the widest deep updrafts in each simulation were the most sensitive to environmental influences.
Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.
Nuclear criticality experiments are essential to the validation of nuclear data used in simulation software. The quality of nuclear data becomes paramount as simulation software becomes more relied upon for criticality safety studies and designs of nuclear systems. To improve the quality of nuclear data, experimenters can design critical experiments that are sensitive to isotope reaction pairs in materials of interest. The efforts conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA) Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) Subgroup 8: Preservation of Expert Knowledge and Judgement Applied to Criticality Benchmarks (SG8) to categorize benchmarks according to their usefulness for nuclear data validation have been of great importance. Based on the OECD studies benchmark experiments included in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook are concisely used by nuclear data evaluators, criticality safety engineers and others to validate nuclear data and simulation results. A lack of benchmarks sensitive to molybdenum in the (ICSBEP), particularly in the intermediate range, was noted by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), and Y-12 National Security Site prompting them to submit a joint integral experiment request to the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) in 2019. The request included both HEU and Plutonium systems in order to validate differential nuclear data focusing on the intermediate energy range but also includes thermal and fast configurations. This document represents the preliminary design work for a series of molybdenum integral experiments known as Molybdenum Optimized Benchmark System Demonstrating Integral Correlations (MOBY DICK).
Described here is the development of a flexible simulation model for scramjet hypersonic propulsion systems. The primary goal is determination of sensitivity of the thrust vector and other system parameters to angle of attack changes of the vehicle. Such information is crucial in design and analysis of control system performance for hypersonic vehicles. The code is also intended to be a key element in carrying out dynamic interaction studies involving the influence of vehicle vibrations on propulsion system/control system coupling and flight stability. Simple models are employed to represent the various processes comprising the propulsion system. A method of characteristics (MOC) approach is used to solve the forebody and external nozzle flow fields. This results in a very fast computational algorithm capable of carrying out the vast number of simulation computations needed in guidance, stability, and control studies. The three-dimensional fore- and aft body (nozzle) geometry is characterized by the centerline profiles as represented by a series of coordinate points and body cross-section curvature. The engine module geometry is represented by an adjustable vertical grid to accommodate variations of the field parameters throughout the inlet and combustor. The scramjet inlet is modeled as a two-dimensional supersonic flow containing adjustable sidewall wedges and multiple fuel injection struts. The inlet geometry including the sidewall wedge angles, the number of injection struts, their sweepback relative to the vehicle reference line, and strut cross-section are user selectable. Combustion is currently represented by a Rayleigh line calculation including corrections for variable gas properties; improved models are being developed for this important element of the propulsion flow field. The program generates (1) variation of thrust magnitude and direction with angle of attack, (2) pitching moment and line of action of the thrust vector, (3) pressure and temperature distributions throughout the system, and (4) performance parameters such as thrust coefficient, specific impulse, mass flow rates, and equivalence ratio. Preliminary results are in good agreement with available performance data for systems resembling the NASP vehicle configuration.
In this work, medium scale (30 cm diameter) methanol pool fires were simulated using the latest fire modeling suite implemented in Sierra/Fuego, a low Mach number multiphysics reacting flow code. The sensitivity of model outputs to various model parameters was studied with the objective of providing model validation. This work also assesses model performance relative to other recently published large eddy simulations (LES) of the same validation case. Two pool surface boundary conditions were simulated. The first was a prescribed fuel mass flux and the second used an algorithm to predict mass flux based on a mass and energy balance at the fuel surface. Gray gas radiation model parameters (absorption coefficients and gas radiation sources) were varied to assess radiant heat losses to the surroundings and pool surface. The radiation model was calibrated by comparing the simulated radiant fraction of the plume to experimental data. The effects of mesh resolution were also quantified starting with a grid resolution representative of engineering type fire calculations and then uniformly refining that mesh in the plume region. Simulation data were compared to experimental data collected at the University of Waterloo and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Validation data included plume temperature, radial and axial velocities, velocity temperature turbulent correlations, velocity velocity turbulent correlations, radiant and convective heat fluxes to the pool surface, and plume radiant fraction. Additional analyses were performed in the pool boundary layer to assess simulated flame anchoring and the effect on convective heat fluxes. This work assesses the capability of the latest Fuego physics and chemistry model suite and provides additional insight into pool fire modeling for nonluminous, non-sooting flames.
The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (Shist). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of Shist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (1862–2012 and 1955–2012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, Shist, ranges from 1.3 °Cto 3.1 °C(5%–95% range) over the full instrumental period (1862–2012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 °C–4.6 °C if using the shorter period (1955–2012).We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values.We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium.
Gamma-gamma coincidence spectrometers have the potential to significantly enhance detection sensitivity for ultra-trace radionuclide measurements. The implementation of these spectrometers, however, is limited by the complexity of acquisition hardware, data processing and quantification. This work reports development of a novel radionuclide quantification software for γ-γ coincidence measurements. For any radionuclide, the software parses the Evaluated Nuclear Structure Data File (ENSDF) database, recursively simulating all possible γ-γ coincidence signatures and their respective emission and detection probabilities. Implemented using Python programming language, the software employs several strategies to boost overall computational performance. Since coincidence-based spectrometers are of notable interest in monitoring compliance for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), the software’s execution was tested for 84 CTBT-relevant radionuclides. To date, the software has been experimentally validated for 15 radionuclides using the Advanced Radionuclide Gamma spectrOmeter (ARGO) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, USA (PNNL). Notably, the software can be operated in convergence mode, whereby coincidence detection efficiency’s convergence behavior can help avoid unreliable radionuclide activity estimates. With growing number of coincidence spectrometers worldwide, this paper aims to assist the radiation metrology community in developing similar software for their system.
One of the proposed concepts for mitigating the warming effect of increasing greenhouse gases is seeding cirrus cloud with ice nuclei (IN) in order to reduce the lifetime and coverage of cold cirrus that have a net warming impact on the earth's surface. Global model simulations of the net impact of changing upper tropospheric IN have given widely disparate results, partly as a result of poor understanding of ice nucleation processes in the current atmosphere, and partly as a result of poor representation of these processes in global models. Here, we present detailed process-model simulations of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) transport and cirrus formation with ice nuclei properties based on recent laboratory nucleation experiments and field measurements of aerosol composition. The model is used to assess the sensitivity of TTL cirrus occurrence frequency and microphysical properties to the abundance and efficacy of ice nuclei. The simulated cloud properties compared with recent high-altitude aircraft measurements of TTL cirrus and ice supersaturation. We find that abundant effective IN (either from glassy organic aerosols or crystalline ammonium sulfate with concentrations greater than about 100/L) prevent the occurrences of large ice concentration and large ice supersaturations, both of which are clearly indicated by the in situ observations. We find that concentrations of effective ice nuclei larger than about 50/L can drive significant changes in cirrus microphysical properties and occurrence frequency. However, the cloud occurrence frequency can either increase or decrease, depending on the efficacy and abundance of IN added to the TTL. We suggest that our lack of information about ice nuclei properties in the current atmosphere, as well as uncertainties in ice nucleation processes and their representations in global models, preclude meaningful estimates of climate impacts associated with addition of ice nuclei in the upper troposphere. We will briefly discuss the key field measurements needed to constrain ice nucleation processes.
The effect on airfoil characteristics of surface roughness of varying degrees and types at different locations on an airfoil was investigated at high values of the Reynolds number in a variable density wind tunnel. Tests were made on a number of National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA) 0012 airfoil models on which the nature of the surface was varied from a rough to a very smooth finish. The effect on the airfoil characteristics of varying the location of a rough area in the region of the leading edge was also investigated. Airfoils with surfaces simulating lap joints were also tested. Measurable adverse effects were found to be caused by small irregularities in airfoil surfaces which might ordinarily be overlooked. The flow is sensitive to small irregularities of approximately 0.0002c in depth near the leading edge. The tests made on the surfaces simulating lap joints indicated that such surfaces cause small adverse effects. Additional data from earlier tests of another symmetrical airfoil are also included to indicate the variation of the maximum lift coefficient with the Reynolds number for an airfoil with a polished surface and with a very rough one.
Bulk power systems operations, in both simulation and practice, are often built on the principle of minimizing production costs, which assumes to first order that demand is fixed and that the only degrees of freedom for balancing generation and load are supply-side unit commitment and dispatch decisions. The purpose of this report is to interrogate the value of welfare-maximizing markets that not only physically balance demand and supply but also ensure that market outcomes provide consumer value by directly maximizing welfare, defined as the value of consumption minus production costs.
This report provides an initial study for producing reduced-order models (ROMs) of pebble-bed high temperature gas reactor (HTGR) models for the purposes of design optimization. As an initial study, this work is meant to be exploratory---identifying useful workflows and methods for ROM generation---and not meant to be a catch-all analysis of HTGR ROM generation and usage for optimization. This report summarizes three tasks performed in Fiscal Year 2022: 1) the creation of HTGR model, 2) the sensitivity analysis of model design parameters, and 3) an introduction to ROM generation techniques. The representative HTGR model created in this work is a multiphysics equilibrium-core using the BlueCRAB (comprehensive reactor analysis bundle) reactor analysis application, coupling four physical phenomena: neutronics, streamline depletion, porous flow thermal hydraulics, and pebble heat conduction. Part of the model creation was identifying some design parameters and quantities of interest that are relevant in an optimization analysis and adjustable in the model. The sensitivity analysis utilized a polynomial chaos expansion methodology to compute global sensitivity metrics. This analysis showed that thermal hydraulics parameters and quantities of interest had a relatively small impact on simulation results. Finally, the ROM generation work involved exploring three different ROM methodologies: polynomial regression, a Gaussian process, and artificial neural networks. Using a cross-validation technique to characterize ROM performance, the Gaussian process and single-layer artificial neural networks showed the most promising results. Overall, this study was insightful and the lessons learned will be invaluable for the eventual development of an HTGR design optimization workflow.
The UC Irvine project for Trace-P (PI: Prather) is a collaboration with Frontier-Japan (Wild and Akimoto) and U. Oslo (Sundet and Isaksen) to make high-resolution global T63 CTM simulations of trace gases and the oxidant budgets for the Trace-P period. Research at FRS and Oslo is not funded by GTE/TRACE-P. Completed control runs for the Trace-P period at T63L40 resolution using the standard emissions with the two related, but independent CTMs at Frontier-UCI and at U. Oslo. Preliminary diagnosis of the impact of Asian emissions on ozone and oxidant budgets is completed. A series of sensitivity runs is beginning to analyze where uncertainty in emissions is related to better simulation of the Trace-P observations.
Catalyst design has traditionally focused on tuning active site properties to optimally bind reaction intermediates and balance the kinetic requirements of multiple competing chemical processes, as necessitated by the Sabatier principle. It has recently been proposed that for reactions following certain potential energy landscapes, the activity limit imposed by the Sabatier principle may be overcome by using programmed oscillations of surface electron density at the timescales of surface reactions (i.e., “catalytic resonance”). Here, we use a combination of density functional theory (DFT) simulations and transient kinetic models (TKMs) to simulate the kinetics of steam methane reforming (SMR) on Ru(211) surfaces under statically and dynamically applied charges. DFT-calculated binding energies of SMR intermediates and transition states exhibit strong sensitivity to positively applied charges and follow unique scaling relationships that deviate from linear periodic trends across transition metals. Our simulations demonstrate that applying a small positive charge to Ru dramatically enhances the steady-state turnover frequency (TOF) of SMR by up to 5 orders of magnitude above the TOF observed over neutral Ru. Thus, statically charging Ru catalysts may be an effective strategy to lower the temperature requirements for SMR. Dynamic square-wave oscillations in charge resulted in SMR catalytic resonance with an onset frequency f ∼ 106 Hz and the corresponding average TOFs exceeding the statically charged Ru surface by an additional 15%. Here, based on sensitivity analyses performed for the two end points of oscillation, we propose that dynamic TOF improvement beyond the Sabatier maximum can be expected when the system oscillates between two kinetic regimes that are uniquely controlled by distinct elementary steps.
The optimization of non-premixed rotating detonation combustors (RDCs) requires improved understanding of the coupled effects of reactant stratification, fluid property gradients, and complex shock-wave interactions on the detonation wave structure within annular geometries. In the current work, simultaneous orthogonal views of chemiluminescence and hydroxyl planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) are utilized to establish the existence of a dual-wave system characterized by leading and trailing detonation waves that are closely coupled by the local flow physics. These features are persistent over a wide range of mass flow rates and are consistent with prior observations of non-premixed rotating detonations in annular geometries. The detailed instantaneous time sequences are compared with a 3D reactive unsteady Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) simulation to more clearly elucidate the in-situ combustion dynamics and the sensitivity to reactant inlet conditions. It is found that the dual-wave system results from unburned reactants that survive the leading detonation wave in the injector near field and are consumed within a trailing azimuthal reflected-shock combustion (ARSC) zone. By contrast, the injector far field is characterized by rapid mixing due to a sudden drop to subsonic conditions, and the bifurcated detonation wave structure collapses into a stronger, single-wave detonation front with higher overall pressure ratio as compared with the dual-wave system. While each RDC will have different inflow, mixing, and combustion characteristics, the underlying interactions between the stratified reactants and azimuthal wave dynamics identified through the combination of advanced MHz-rate diagnostics and 3D numerical simulations have important implications for the study of detonation wave stability, mode transition, and combustion efficiency in non-premixed annular RDCs.