Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Scenario development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,657 records · Page 92

Identification of Performance Shaping Factor Lag and Linger Effects for Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis: Application of Experimental Data

Many researchers have emphasized the importance of dynamic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), which highlights the necessity of studies for dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA). Dynamic HRA concentrates on a dynamic account of human actions or how performance shaping factors (PSFs) can dynamically modify the human error probability (HEP) over time. In contrast, existing static HRA does not consider human actions as changes over time or event progressions. Accordingly, previous research on dynamic HRA conceptually suggested PSF lag and linger effects to treat dependence between operator actions in dynamic HRA versus existing approaches. As follow-up research, this study attempted to identify PSF lag and linger effects for dynamic HRA on the basis of experimental data. Firstly, mathematical models for PSF lag and linger effects were developed based on a literature survey in the field of biology. Secondly, we analyzed experimental scenarios from a control room study to identify operator actions considered in PSA. Lastly, based on the experimental data, the effect of the stress PSF with lag and linger effects was compared to that without PSF lag and linger effects. This paper concludes with an overall discussion of PSF lag and linger effects based on the relation between the stress PSF and error occurrence.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Current and Projected Future Distribution of Plant Community Types for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Landscape scale maps of plant community distribution at 5 m resolution were developed for southern Seward Peninsula. A Random Forest based environmental niche model was developed using topographic and climate data sets. Models were trained for the 2010-2019 period and applied to develop plant community distributions for contemporary (2010-2019) period. Trained model was applied to project the plant community distributions under future climate. Using downscaled projections for RCP8.5 scenario from five climate models (CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3) and multi-model mean, a six member ensemble of plant community distribution were developed for current decade (2010-2019) and for future decades (2020-2029, 2030-2039, 2040-2049, 2050-2059). Contains *.tif and *.sh files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metrics and Analytical Frameworks for Valuing Energy Efficiency and Distributed Energy Resources in the Built Environment: Preprint

This paper summarizes efforts to develop new—and enhance existing—analytical frameworks and metrics to quantify the value that grid-interactive efficient homes with solar (GEB-solar homes) can provide. Industry is working to characterize and understand these capabilities and benefits, but existing analytical frameworks for evaluating energy efficiency (EE) are often siloed from those that evaluate distributed energy resources (DERs). Five metrics were adapted from an extensive literature review and applied to case studies of a modeled home in Riverside, California: ramp up/down, cover factor demand/supply, and curtailable load. Eight different technology scenarios were analyzed using a more tightly connected suite of building-to-grid models (BEopt, REopt, ReEDS, and PLEXOS). Additionally, an initial version of the Cambium tool was developed, characterizing the marginal prices and emissions from NREL’s 2018 Standard Scenarios. These grid costs were extended to a time-varying proxy retail rate and applied as part of a new grid alignment metric. In the results, a more integrated combination of GEB-solar technologies led to a higher cover factor demand—the percentage of gross home load covered by on-site solar—however, a benchmark was required to determine what range of cover factor was “best” for given grid conditions. To that end, a grid alignment cost metric was applied to the case study scenarios. The average cost to serve the net load of the home decreased from a median of ~$0.24/kWh to ~$0.10/kWh when the most integrated technology scenario was optimized towards the grid pricing proxy versus the time-of-use (TOU) rate.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Perovskite Sorbent Oxygen Separation Modeling with MFiX

This document chronicles the development and implementation of computational kinetic rate models that capture absorption and desorption characteristics of the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) developed perovskite, Sr 1-x Ca x FeO 3-δ . Two paths to create accurate kinetic rates were followed: (1) an isothermal rate approach where thermogravimetric (TGA) data are recast as oxygen capacities through a pseudo-second order Lagergren equation (He et al., 2009); and (2) a more traditional Arrhenius approach where experimental data are fit with a power law model to derive associate activation energies (Bulfin et al., 2020a). For reference, the mathematics and associate experimental strategies that support these derivations are included in this report. In addition, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models were developed to utilize both kinetic rate formulations and applied to simulate oxygen uptake and release in small scale scenarios. The program Multiphase Flow with interphase eXchanges (MFiX) was used to create: (1) discrete element method (DEM) simulations of a single tube of granular perovskite experiencing isothermal O 2 -absorption; and desorption and (2) two-fluid-model (TFM) non-isothermal simulations of perovskite O 2 -absorption and desorption tubes that share a wall. Conjugate heat transfer between steel walled tubes and the perovskite bed were managed with user-defined functions. As the project moves to simulating larger scale devices that will require more robust conjugate heat transfer methods, developed kinetic rates and associate methodologies have been recast for use in the ANSYS Fluent CFD program.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Towards autonomous fuzzy control

The efficient implementation of on-line adaptation in real time is an important research problem in fuzzy control. The goal is to develop autonomous self-organizing controllers employing system-independent control meta-knowledge which enables them to adjust their control policies depending on the systems they control and the environments in which they operate. An autonomous fuzzy controller would continuously observe system behavior while implementing its control actions and would use the outcomes of these actions to refine its control policy. It could be designed to lie dormant when its control actions give rise to adequate performance characteristics but could rapidly and autonomously initiate real-time adaptation whenever its performance degrades. Such an autonomous fuzzy controller would have immense practical value. It could accommodate individual variations in system characteristics and also compensate for degradations in system characteristics caused by wear and tear. It could also potentially deal with black-box systems and control scenarios. On-going research in autonomous fuzzy control is reported. The ultimate research objective is to develop robust and relatively inexpensive autonomous fuzzy control hardware suitable for use in real time environments.

Shenoi, Sujeet↗

Biomaterials Out of Thin Air: In Situ, On-Demand Printing of Advanced Biocomposites: A New Materials Design and Production Technique Using 3D-Printed Arrays of Bioengineered Cells

We have completed the proof of concept described in our Phase I proposal, a two-material array of nonstructural proteins. We created an implementation of each step in our technology concept and demonstrated its critical functionality. The biological chassis and printing hardware we created as part of this work can be re-used for future work by inserting a material coding region upstream of the fluorescent tag. Overall, we showed that our technology concept is sound. The mission benefit analyses, as described in our Phase I proposal, are complete and contained in this report. These calculations show that our technology can save hundreds of kilograms of upmass for a potential planetary human habit construction mission: the mass per habitat module can be reduced by approximately one third if the biomaterials are manufactured on Earth and included in the mission upmass, and the full 240 kg per module can be saved if the materials are derived entirely from in situ resources. Mass savings between these two extremes is expected for an actual mission, depending on the level of in situ resource extraction technology. We have shown that continued advancement of this technology concept for use in a space mission environment is justified. Our survey of future development pathways proved extremely informative in light of the lessons learned from our proof of concept work and mission scenario analyses. For example, we were able for the first time to distinguish between the levels of functionality provided by production of structural proteins, other polymers such as polysaccharides, and true organic-inorganic composites such as bone and mineralized shell. This new information represents a significant advance in formulating specific applications, and key enabling technologies, for our proposed concept. We surveyed potential collaborations with other projects and synergies with enabling technologies that are developing. We have received requests for collaboration from other institutions, including labs at Stanford University and Drexel University. We have also received visits from industry, including Organovo, a tissue engineering company, and Autodesk, a major 3D and materials design software company. Finally, we have been in touch with the team behind the 2013 NIAC Phase ll 'Super Ball Bot-Structures for Planetary Landing and Exploration' and are planning to develop our biomaterial printing technology with the goal of enabling tensegrity-based rovers such as theirs to use lighter, more robust materials. A smooth transition from TRL 2 to TRL 3 assumes that the implementations of the technology concept which demonstrate critical functionality are also pathways for future development; while this is the case for most hardware or software projects, the multidisciplinary nature of our project, particularly the biological aspect of it, means that this is not always true. For example, as part of this work we showed that although there are large number of known genetic parts that correspond to non-structural materials, this is not true for sequences for structural organic proteins, let alone biominerals. These realizations allowed us to further subdivide our concept into more detailed development areas, some of which are clearly established at TRL 3, others of which were newly identified sub-technologies moved from TRL 1 to TRL 2. Similarly, although a single feasibility /benefit analysis is sufficient for advancement from TRL 2 to TRL 3, not all potential benefits to a technology concept as broad in scope as ours are apparent at TRL 2. Both our future pathways survey and our proof of concept work highlighted that the true mass savings potential of our technology concept cannot be quantified without modification of existing materials modelling tools to take into account the possibility of positional materials properties customization. Therefore, we have simultaneously both advanced one potential set of applications of our technology concept from TRL 2 to TRL 3 and also identified a previously unknown set of applications and advanced it from TRL 1 to TRL 2. Overall, we have moved the original formulation of our concept forward from TRL 2 to TRL 3, and the expanded formulation of it presented in this document has been advanced from a combination of TRL 1 and early 1RL 2 to an overall late TRL 2. We have also identified the key areas necessary for both short-term and long-term advancement, and made recommendations for specific future work in the most promising directions. With future work on a 1-2 year timeframe to continue advancement to overall TRL 3, we will be well positioned to begin work on a specific space mission technology insertion path.

Biology↗

A Systems Engineering Approach to Architecture Development

Architecture development is often conducted prior to system concept design when there is a need to determine the best-value mix of systems that works collectively in specific scenarios and time frames to accomplish a set of mission area objectives. While multiple architecture frameworks exist, they often require use of unique taxonomies and data structures. In contrast, this paper characterizes architecture development using terminology widely understood within the systems engineering community. Using a notional civil space architecture example, it employs a multi-tier framework to describe the enterprise level architecture and illustrates how results of lower tier, mission area architectures integrate into the enterprise architecture. It also presents practices for conducting effective mission area architecture studies, including establishing the trade space, developing functions and metrics, evaluating the ability of potential design solutions to meet the required functions, and expediting study execution through the use of iterative design cycles.

Multi-tier Framework↗

A Systems Engineering Approach to Architecture Development

Architecture development is often conducted prior to system concept design when there is a need to determine the best-value mix of systems that works collectively in specific scenarios and time frames to accomplish a set of mission area objectives. While multiple architecture frameworks exist, they often require use of unique taxonomies and data structures. In contrast, this paper characterizes architecture development using terminology widely understood within the systems engineering community. Using a notional civil space architecture example, it employs a multi-tier framework to describe the enterprise level architecture and illustrates how results of lower tier, mission area architectures integrate into the enterprise architecture. It also presents practices for conducting effective mission area architecture studies, including establishing the trade space, developing functions and metrics, evaluating the ability of potential design solutions to meet the required functions, and expediting study execution through the use of iterative design cycles

Architecture Development↗

Lunar Outpost Life Support Trade Studies

Engineering trade-off studies of life support system architecture and technology options were conducted for potential lunar surface mission scenarios within NASA's Constellation Program. The scenarios investigated are based largely on results of the NASA Lunar Architecture Team (LAT) Phase II study. In particular, the possibility of Hosted Sortie missions, the high cost of power during eclipse periods, and the potential to reduce life support consumables through scavenging, in-situ resources, and alternative EVA technologies were all examined. These trade studies were performed within the Systems Integration, Modeling and Analysis (SIMA) element of NASA's Exploration Life Support (ELS) technology development project. The tools and methodology used in the study are described briefly, followed by a discussion of mission scenarios, life support technology options and results presented in terms of equivalent system mass for various regenerative life support technologies and architectures. Three classes of repeated or extended lunar surface missions were investigated in this study along with several life support resource scenarios for each mission class. Individual mission durations of 14 days, 90 days and 180 days were considered with 10 missions assumed for each at a rate of 2 missions per year. The 14-day missions represent a class of Hosted Sortie missions where a pre-deployed and potentially mobile habitat provides life support for multiple crews at one or more locations. The 90-day and 180-day missions represent lunar outpost expeditions with a larger fixed habitat. The 180-day missions assume continuous human presence and must provide life support through eclipse periods of up to 122 hours while the 90-day missions are planned for best-case periods of nearly continuous sunlight. This paper investigates system optimization within the assumptions of each scenario and addresses how the scenario selected drives the life support system to different designs. Subsequently, these analysis results can be used to determine which technologies may be good choices throughout a broad range of architectures.

Lange, Kevin E.↗

Physics basis for the reference flat-top plasma scenario in the ST–E1 fusion power plant

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Milestone-Based Fusion Energy Development Program, Tokamak Energy has completed the pre-concept design of the ST–E1 fusion power plant. ST–E1 is envisaged to operate in two phases: a pilot plant phase, targeting sustained net power production of 300 - 500 MWe for a duration >1 hr, followed by a commercial power plant phase targeting steady-state operations and a normalised overnight capital cost of ⩽12 000 $\$$/kWe. The design process adopted was highly iterative, integrating all major plant systems and progressing in a phased fidelity approach. At the pre-conceptual stage, the emphasis has been on exploring the design space, identifying the main system-level trade-offs, and making the key decisions that define the overall plant concept, rather than optimising a single operating point. This paper, part of a focused collection detailing the ST–E1 pre-concept design, addresses the development of a series of reference flat-top plasma operating points for the pilot plant phase. A modelling workflow was established to develop and assess candidate plasma design points and explore key dependencies. The workflow includes integrated core plasma modelling, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability assessment, equilibrium generation, scrape-off-layer and exhaust modelling, heating & current drive design and optimisation, and turbulent transport modelling. Using this framework, the impact of several key parameters on the flat-top operating space was investigated, including the density limit, core radiation fraction and divertor power loading, level of external heating and curent drive power and assumed pedestal characteristics. The MHD stability, controllability and micro-stability characteristics of these plasmas were also analysed. These investigations informed the definition of a set of fully non-inductive, flat-top reference operating points that satisfy the high-level ST–E1 mission, including a low and high density case, a case that is stable to resistive wall modes and a case with reduced divertor power loading.

ST–E1↗

Long-Range Biometric Identification in Real World Scenarios: A Comprehensive Evaluation Framework Based on Missions

The considerable body of data available for evaluating biometric recognition systems in Research and Development (R&D) environments has contributed to the increasingly common problem of target performance mismatch. Biometric algorithms are frequently tested against data that may not reflect the real world applications they target. From a Testing and Evaluation (T&E) standpoint, this domain mismatch causes difficulty assessing when improvements in State-of-the-Art (SOTA) research actually translate to improved applied outcomes. This problem can be addressed with thoughtful preparation of data and experimental methods to reflect specific use-cases and scenarios.To that end, this paper evaluates research solutions for identifying individuals at ranges and altitudes, which could support various application areas such as counterterrorism, protection of critical infrastructure facilities, military force protection, and border security. We address challenges including image quality issues and reliance on face recognition as the sole biometric modality. By fusing face and body features, we propose developing robust biometric systems for effective long-range identification from both the ground and steep pitch angles. Preliminary results show promising progress in whole-body recognition. This paper presents these early findings and discusses potential future directions for advancing long-range biometric identification systems based on mission-driven metrics.

Aykac, Deniz↗

The Trash Compaction Processing System (TCPS) Technology Demonstration and Risk Reduction Updates FY23-FY24

The Next STEP Phase BTrash Compaction Processing System (TCPS) is being developed for a technology demonstration on the International Space Station(ISS) to process common spacecraft consumables trash such as food packaging and clothing to reduce trash storage volume, recover water, safen(e.g. reduce biological activity), and shape the trash for storage, jettison, reuse (e.g.,radiation shielding) and/or recycling. Sierra Space is developing the flight demonstration hardware and National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA) continues to conduct risk reduction activities to exploreoperational scenarios, setting the stage for successful on-orbit tests. After the flight demonstration on ISS, the TCPS becomes available to be infused into NASA short-and long-term missions.This paper will discuss the rationale for the updated requirement definitions outlined in the 2023 International Conference on Environmental System TCPS paper and the ongoing risk reduction activities. In addition, drawing from lessons learned in the development of the TCPS, a discussion of other compression technologies will be introduced for various mission types.

Trash Compaction Processing System↗

The Trash Compaction Processing System (TCPS) Technology Demonstration and Risk Reduction Updates FY23-FY24 Presentation

The Next STEP Phase BTrash Compaction Processing System (TCPS) is being developed for a technology demonstration on the International Space Station(ISS) to process common spacecraft consumables trash such as food packaging and clothing to reduce trash storage volume, recover water, safen(e.g. reduce biological activity), and shape the trash for storage, jettison, reuse (e.g.,radiation shielding) and/or recycling. Sierra Space is developing the flight demonstration hardware and National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA) continues to conduct risk reduction activities to exploreoperational scenarios, setting the stage for successful on-orbit tests. After the flight demonstration on ISS, the TCPS becomes available to be infused into NASA short-and long-term missions.This paper will discuss the rationale for the updated requirement definitions outlined in the 2023 International Conference on Environmental System TCPS paper and the ongoing risk reduction activities. In addition, drawing from lessons learned in the development of the TCPS, a discussion of other compression technologies will be introduced for various mission types.

Trash Compaction Processing System↗

Rigging Test Bed Enables Development of Multi-Stage Decelerator Extraction

The Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) project developed a Parachute Deployment System (PDS) for use on its Supersonic Flight Dynamics Tests (SFDT). The PDS involves a multi-stage pilot driven extraction of a supersonic parachute. The uncertainties and complexities of developing the design for the lines and rigging of the PDS were addressed through testing in the Rigging Test Bed (RTB). The RTB provided a facility capable of simulating a variety of extraction scenarios with full scale hardware on the ground. Through more than 100 tests conducted in the facility, a wealth of data and experience were gained that fueled the PDS development. The utility of this testing and the lessons learned are presented in this paper. The goal is to inform the development of similar systems in the future and highlight the value and flexibility this type of testing offers rapid hardware development. The RTB provided a great compliment to the analytical models greatly compressing what would have otherwise been a very lengthy analytical effort or potentially much expanded flight test campaign.

Kenig, Sivan J.↗

Accelerating cavity fault prediction using deep learning at Jefferson Laboratory

Abstract Accelerating cavities are an integral part of the continuous electron beam accelerator facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Laboratory. When any of the over 400 cavities in CEBAF experiences a fault, it disrupts beam delivery to experimental user halls. In this study, we propose the use of a deep learning model to predict slowly developing cavity faults. By utilizing pre-fault signals, we train a long short-term memory-convolutional neural network binary classifier to distinguish between radio-frequency (RF) signals during normal operation and RF signals indicative of impending faults. We optimize the model by adjusting the fault confidence threshold and implementing a multiple consecutive window criterion to identify fault events, ensuring a low false positive rate. Results obtained from analysis of a real dataset collected from the accelerating cavities simulating a deployed scenario demonstrate the model’s ability to identify normal signals with 99.99% accuracy and correctly predict 80% of slowly developing faults. Notably, these achievements were achieved in the context of a highly imbalanced dataset, and fault predictions were made several hundred milliseconds before the onset of the fault. Anticipating faults enables preemptive measures to improve operational efficiency by preventing or mitigating their occurrence.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Evaluation of Human and Anthropomorphic Test Device Finite Element Models under Spaceflight Loading Conditions

In an effort to develop occupant protection standards for future multipurpose crew vehicles, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has looked to evaluate the test device for human occupant restraint with the modification kit (THOR‐K) anthropomorphic test device (ATD) in relevant impact test scenarios. With the allowance and support of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, NASA has performed a series of sled impact tests on the latest developed THOR‐K ATD. These tests were performed to match test conditions from human volunteer data previously collected by the U.S. Air Force. The objective of this study was to evaluate the THOR‐K finite element (FE) model and the Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS) FE model with respect to the tests performed. These models were evaluated in spinal and frontal impacts against kinematic and kinetic data recorded in ATD and human testing. Methods: The FE simulations were developed based on recorded pretest ATD/human position and sled acceleration pulses measured during testing. Predicted responses by both human and ATD models were compared to test data recorded under the same impact conditions. The kinematic responses of the models were quantitatively evaluated using the ISO‐metric curve rating system. In addition, ATD injury criteria and human stress/strain data were calculated to evaluate the risk of injury predicted by the ATD and human model, respectively. Results: Preliminary results show well‐correlated response between both FE models and their physical counterparts. In addition, predicted ATD injury criteria and human model stress/strain values are shown to positively relate. Kinematic comparison between human and ATD models indicates promising biofidelic response, although a slightly stiffer response is observed within the ATD. Conclusion: As a compliment to ATD testing, numerical simulation provides efficient means to assess vehicle safety throughout the design process and further improve the design of physical ATDs. The assessment of the THOR‐K and THUMS FE models in a spaceflight testing condition is an essential first step to implementing these models in the computational evaluation of spacecraft occupant safety. Promising results suggest future use of these models in the aerospace field.

Putnam, Jacob P.↗

Analysis of Advanced Respiratory Support Onboard ISS and CCV

NASA is collaborating with private entities for the development of commercial space vehicles. The Space and Clinical Operations Division was tasked to review the oxygen and respiratory support system and recommend what capabilities, if any, the vehicle should have to support the return of an ill or injured crewmember. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was utilized as a data source for the development of these recommendations. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was used to simulate a six month, six crew, International Space Station (ISS) mission. Three medical system scenarios were considered based on the availability of (1) oxygen only, (2) oxygen and a ventilator, or (3) neither oxygen nor ventilator. The IMM analysis provided probability estimates of medical events that would require either oxygen or ventilator support. It also provided estimates of crew health, the probability of evacuation, and the probability of loss of crew life secondary to medical events for each of the three medical system scenarios. These IMM outputs were used as objective data to enable evidence‐based decisions regarding oxygen and respiratory support system requirements for commercial crew vehicles. The IMM provides data that may be utilized to support informed decisions regarding the development of medical systems for commercial crew vehicles.

Shah, Ronak V.↗