Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Process sensitivity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,657 records · Page 92
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

New Technique for Barium Daughter Ion Identification in a Liquid Xe-136 Double Beta Decay Experiment

This work addresses long-standing issues of fundamental interest in elementary particle physics. The most important outcome of this work is a new limit on neutrinoless double beta decay. This is an extremely rare and long-sought-after type of radioactive decay. If discovered, it would require changes in the standard model of the elementary constituents of matter, and would prove that neutrinos and antineutrinos are the same, a revolutionary concept in particle physics. Neutrinos are major components of the matter in the universe that are so small and so weakly interacting with other matter that their masses have not yet been discovered. A discovery of neutrinoless double beta decay could help determine the neutrino masses. An important outcome of the work on this project was the Colorado State University role in operating the EXO-200 neutrinoless double beta decay experiment and in analysis of the data from this experiment. One type of double beta decay of the isotope 136 Xe, the two-neutrino variety, was discovered in this work. Although the other type of double beta decay, the neutrinoless variety, was not yet discovered in this work, a world’s best sensitivity of 1.9x10 25 year half-life was obtained. This result rules out a previous claim of a positive result in a different isotope. This work also establishes that the masses of the neutrinos are less than one millionth of that of electrons. A unique EXO-200 analysis, in which the CSU group had a leading role, has established for the first time ever in a liquid noble gas the fraction of daughter atoms from alpha and beta decay that are ionized. This result has important impact on other pending studies, including nucleon decay and barium tagging. Novel additional discoveries include multiphoton ionization of liquid xenon with UV pulsed lasers, which may find application in calibration of future noble liquid detectors, and studies of association and dissociation reactions of Ba + ions in gaseous xenon. Through this project, we are substantially closer to demonstrating “barium tagging”, i.e., detection of single daughter 136 Ba atoms from 136 Xe double beta decay. Milestones achieved include obtaining spectra of small numbers of Ba atoms and cryoprobe advances toward trapping single 136 Ba atoms in solid xenon and probe extraction for detection. One of the other benefits to society is the training of six Ph.D. students in a variety of state-of-the-art technologies, half under primary support of this grant and half with partial support, with four finishing their Ph.D. degrees and two well on their way.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

The radioactive nuclei 26 Al and 60 Fe in the Cosmos and in the solar system

The cosmic evolution of the chemical elements from the Big Bang to the present time is driven by nuclear fusion reactions inside stars and stellar explosions. A cycle of matter recurrently re-processes metal-enriched stellar ejecta into the next generation of stars. The study of cosmic nucleosynthesis and this matter cycle requires the understanding of the physics of nuclear reactions, of the conditions at which the nuclear reactions are activated inside the stars and stellar explosions, of the stellar ejection mechanisms through winds and explosions, and of the transport of the ejecta towards the next cycle, from hot plasma to cold, star-forming gas. Due to the long timescales of stellar evolution, and because of the infrequent occurrence of stellar explosions, observational studies are challenging, as they have biases in time and space as well as different sensitivities related to the various astronomical methods. Here, we describe in detail the astrophysical and nuclear-physical processes involved in creating two radioactive isotopes useful in such studies, 26 Al and 60 Fe. Due to their radioactive lifetime of the order of a million years, these isotopes are suitable to characterise simultaneously the processes of nuclear fusion reactions and of interstellar transport. We describe and discuss the nuclear reactions involved in the production and destruction of 26 Al and 60 Fe, the key characteristics of the stellar sites of their nucleosynthesis and their interstellar journey after ejection from the nucleosynthesis sites. This allows us to connect the theoretical astrophysical aspects to the variety of astronomical messengers presented here, from stardust and cosmic-ray composition measurements, through observation of γ rays produced by radioactivity, to material deposited in deep-sea ocean crusts and to the inferred composition of the first solids that have formed in the Solar System. We show that considering measurements of the isotopic ratio of 26 Al to 60 Fe eliminate some of the unknowns when interpreting astronomical results, and discuss the lessons learned from these two isotopes on cosmic chemical evolution. This review paper has emerged from an ISSI-BJ Team project in 2017–2019, bringing together nuclear physicists, astronomers, and astrophysicists in this inter-disciplinary discussion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Basic parameter estimation of binary neutron star systems by the advanced LIGO/Vigro network

Within the next five years, it is expected that the Advanced LIGO/Virgo network will have reached a sensitivity sufficient to enable the routine detection of gravitational waves. Beyond the initial detection, the scientific promise of these instruments relies on the effectiveness of our physical parameter estimation capabilities. A major part of this effort has been toward the detection and characterization of gravitational waves from compact binary coalescence, e.g., the coalescence of binary neutron stars. While several previous studies have investigated the accuracy of parameter estimation with advanced detectors, the majority have relied on approximation techniques such as the Fisher Matrix which are insensitive to the non-Gaussian nature of the gravitational wave posterior distribution function. Here we report average statistical uncertainties that will be achievable for strong detection candidates (S/N = 20) over a comprehensive sample of source parameters. We use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo based parameter estimation software developed by the LIGO/Virgo Collaboration with the goal of updating the previously quoted Fisher Matrix bounds. We find the recovery of the individual masses to be fractionally within 9% (15%) at the 68% (95%) credible intervals for equal-mass systems, and within 1.9% (3.7%) for unequal-mass systems. We also find that the Advanced LIGO/Virgo network will constrain the locations of binary neutron star mergers to a median uncertainty of 5.1 deg{sup 2} (13.5 deg{sup 2}) on the sky. This region is improved to 2.3 deg{sup 2} (6 deg{sup 2}) with the addition of the proposed LIGO India detector to the network. We also report the average uncertainties on the luminosity distances and orbital inclinations of strong detections that can be achieved by different network configurations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Characterization Techniques for LiInSe{sub 2} Semiconducting Neutron Detector - Paper 55

As the world supply of helium continues to dwindle, alternatives to neutron detection have been a key focus area of radiation detection research. Solid-state neutron detectors are one possible alternative to the {sup 3}He detectors currently used for neutron detection when large detector areas are not required. Although {sup 6}Li and {sup 10}B are both also commonly used for neutron detection, neither has as high of a thermal cross section as {sup 3}He. The thermal cross sections for {sup 6}Li, {sup 10}B, and {sup 3}He are, respectively, 940 barns, 3840 barns, and 5330 barns. Both boron and helium are used in a gaseous form for neutron detection; however, there is no suitable gaseous form of lithium for neutron detection. Lithium is instead utilized in solid or liquid compounds for neutron detection. In this context, one area of interest is in the development of ternary A{sup I}B{sup III}C{sup IV} semiconductors comprised of isotopically-enriched lithium. Single crystal samples are being prepared through collaboration with the Y12 National Security Complex. This research focuses on the characterization of {sup 6}LiInSe{sub 2} (LISe) crystals, as well as on the development of prototype systems to assess the viability of using LISe crystals as a thermal neutron detector. Data to be obtained will provide previously untested physical parameters to facilitate growth optimization. Eventually, the refined crystals will be developed into solid-state, position-sensitive pixel detectors used for neutron imaging, among a wide array of possible applications including nuclear forensics. For the most part, the research team has been focused on mastering the detector fabrication processes, response tests on the first two batches of crystal samples, and the design of the first iteration detection system (Fig. 2). Response tests using alphas and neutrons have shown sensitivity to both particles. The first iteration detection system developed utilizes a 3-stage filter ladder of resistors and capacitors, similar to an ORTEC 142PC Preamplifier. Ideally, this ladder will reduce the noise associated with the high voltage power supply. The preamplifier is AC coupled to improve its counting rate capability (saturation), and critical components are on insulated posts. The custom circuit is housed in an aluminum box, and initial testing of the circuit has shown expected results. Investigation into further noise reduction is underway and will be the focus of the presented results. Upon completion and successful testing of the final detection system design, further development in spatial resolution and gamma/neutron discrimination will continue. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamics of streamflow permanence in a headwater network: Insights from catchment-scale model simulations

The hillslope and channel dynamics that govern streamflow permanence in headwater systems have important implications for ecosystem functioning and downstream water quality. Recent advancements in process-based, semi-distributed hydrologic models that build upon empirical studies of streamflow permanence in well-monitored headwater catchments show promise for characterizing the dynamics of streamflow permanence in headwater systems. However, few process-based models consider the continuum of hillslope-stream network connectivity as a control on streamflow permanence in headwater systems. The objective of this study was to expand a process-based, catchment-scale hydrologic model to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of headwater streamflow permanence and to identify controls of streamflow expansion and contraction in a headwater network. Further, we aimed to develop an approach that enhanced the fidelity of model simulations, yet required little additional data, with the intent that the model might be later transferred to catchments with limited long-term and spatially explicit measurements. This approach facilitated network-scale estimates of the controls of streamflow expansion and contraction, albeit with higher degrees of uncertainty in individual reaches due to data constraints. Our model simulated that streamflow permanence was highly dynamic in first-order reaches with steep slopes and variable contributing areas. The simulated stream network length ranged from nearly 98±2% of the geomorphic channel extent during wet periods to nearly 50±10% during dry periods. The model identified a discharge threshold of approximately 1 mm d –1 , above which the rate of streamflow expansion decreases by nearly an order of magnitude, indicating a lack of sensitivity of streamflow expansion to hydrologic forcing during high-flow periods. Overall, we demonstrate that process-based, catchment-scale models offer important insights on the controls of streamflow permanence, despite uncertainties and limitations of the model. We encourage researchers to increase data collection efforts and develop benchmarks to better evaluate such models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical coupling of aerosol emissions, dry removal, and turbulent mixing in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1) – Part 2: A semi-discrete error analysis framework for assessing coupling schemes

Abstract. Part 1 (Wan et al., 2024) of this study discusses the motivation and empirical evaluation of a revision to the aerosol-related numerical process coupling in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (EAMv1) to address the previously reported issue of strong sensitivity of the simulated dust aerosol lifetime and dry removal rate to the model's vertical resolution. This paper complements that empirical justification of the revised scheme with a mathematical justification leveraging a semi-discrete analysis framework for assessing the splitting error of process coupling methods. The framework distinguishes the error due to numerical splitting from the error due to the time integration method(s) used for each individual process. Such a distinction results in a framework that provides an intuitive understanding of the causes of the splitting error. The application of this framework to the dust life cycle in EAMv1 confirms (i) that the original EAMv1 scheme artificially strengthens the effect of dry removal processes and (ii) that the revised splitting reduces that artificial strengthening. While the error analysis framework is presented in the context of the dust life cycle in EAMv1, the framework can be broadly leveraged to evaluate process coupling schemes, both in other physical problems and for any number of processes. This framework will be particularly powerful when the various process implementations support a variety of time integration approaches. Whereas traditional local truncation error approaches require separate consideration of each combination of time integration methods, this framework enables evaluation of coupling schemes independent of particular time integration approaches for each process while still allowing for the incorporation of these specific time integration errors if so desired. The framework also explains how the splitting error terms result from (i) the integration of individual processes in isolation from other processes and (ii) the choices of input state and time step size for the isolated integration of processes. Such a perspective has the potential for the rapid development of alternative coupling approaches that utilize knowledge both about the desired accuracy and about the computational costs of individual processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Cryptographic Escrow for Treaty Declarations and Step-by-Step Verification

The verification of arms-control and disarmament agreements requires states to provide declarations, including information on sensitive military sites and assets. There are important cases, however, where negotiations of these agreements are impeded because states are reluctant to provide any such data, because of concerns about prematurely handing over militarily significant information. To address this challenge, we present a cryptographic escrow that allows a state to make a complete declaration of sites and assets at the outset and commit to its content, but only reveal the sensitive information therein sequentially. Combined with an inspection regime, our escrow allows for step-by-step verification of the correctness and completeness of the initial declaration so that the information release and inspections keep pace with parallel diplomatic and political processes. We apply this approach to the possible denuclearization of North Korea. Such approaches can be applied, however, to any agreement requiring the sharing of sensitive information.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

A new and alternative look at nonlinear Alfvénic states

The formulation for studying nonlinear Alfvenic states, sustainable in Hall Magnetohydrodynamics (HMHD), becomes considerably simpler and more tractable when circularly polarized Beltrami vectors (the eigenstates of linear HMHD) are used as the basis functions. Nonlinear HMHD is, then, reduced to a rather simple looking set of scalar equations from which a model problem of three interacting Beltrami modes is formulated and analytically solved. The triplet interactions span a variety of familiar nonlinear processes leading to a redistribution as well as periodic exchange of energy. The energy exchange processes (whose strength is measured by an energy exchange/depletion time) will, perhaps, play a dominant role in determining the spectral content of an eventual Alfvenic state. All nonlinearities (sensitive functions of the interacting wave vectors) operate at par, and none is dominant over any substantial region of k-space; their intricate interplay prevents a “universal” picture from emerging; few generalizations on the processes that may, for instance, lead to a turbulent state, are possible. However, the theory can definitely claim: (1) the energy tends to flow from lower to higher k and (2) the higher k z (in the direction of the ambient magnetic field) components of a mode with a given k are depleted/oscillate faster—in some cases much faster. It is noteworthy that the mode coupling is the strongest (with the shortest depletion time) when the participating wave vectors are nearly perpendicular; perhaps, an expected consequence of the curl (cross product) nonlinearities. Numerical simulations will be necessary to help create a fully reliable picture.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

No Heat Spray Drying Technology

No Heat Spray Drying Technology. ZoomEssence has developed our Zooming™ spray drying technology that atomizes liquids to powders at ambient temperature. The process of drying a liquid into a powder form has been traditionally achieved by mixing a heated gas with an atomized (sprayed) fluid within a vessel (drying chamber) causing the solvent to evaporate. The predominant spray drying process in use today employs air heated up to 400° Fahrenheit to dry an atomized liquid into a powder. Exposing sensitive, volatile liquid ingredients to high temperature causes molecular degradation that negatively impacts solubility, stability and profile of the powder. In short, heat is detrimental to many liquid ingredients. The completed award focused on several areas in order to advance the prototype dryer to a commercial scale integrated pilot system. Prior to the award, ZoomEssence had developed a prototype ‘no-heat’ dryer that firmly established the feasibility of the Zooming™ process. The award focused on three primary areas to improve the technology: (1) improved ability to formulate emulsions for specific flavor groups and improved understanding of the relationship of emulsion properties to final dry particle properties, (2) a new production atomizer, and (3) a dryer controls system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

NEAR-INFRARED EMISSION SPECTRUM OF WASP-103B USING HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE/WIDE FIELD CAMERA 3

We present here our observations and analysis of the dayside emission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-103b. We observed WASP-103b during secondary eclipse using two visits of the Hubble Space Telescope with the G141 grism on Wide Field Camera 3 in spatial scan mode. We generated secondary eclipse light curves of the planet in both blended white-light and spectrally binned wavechannels from 1.1 to 1.7 μm and corrected the light curves for flux contamination from a nearby companion star. We modeled the detector systematics and secondary eclipse spectrum using Gaussian process regression and found that the near-IR emission spectrum of WASP-103b is featureless across the observed near-IR region to down to a sensitivity of 175 ppm, and shows a shallow slope toward the red. The atmosphere has a single brightness temperature of T{sub B}=2890 K across this wavelength range. This region of the spectrum is indistinguishable from isothermal, but may not manifest from a physically isothermal system, i.e., pseudo-isothermal. A solar-metallicity profile with a thermal inversion layer at 10{sup −2} bar fits the spectrum of WASP-103b with high confidence, as do an isothermal profile with solar metallicity and a monotonically decreasing atmosphere with C/O > 1. The data rule out a monotonically decreasing atmospheric profile with solar composition, and we rule out a low-metallicity decreasing profile as unphysical for this system. The pseudo-isothermal profile could be explained by a thermal inversion layer just above the layer probed by our observations, or by clouds or haze in the upper atmosphere. Transmission spectra at optical wavelengths would allow us to better distinguish between potential atmospheric models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiation Monitoring for Volatilized Zinc Contamination Using Gamma-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy

Gamma-ray imaging is a tool that has grown in importance in the applications of non-destructive assay (NDA) for radioactive survey and analysis of nuclear facilities. Imaging techniques have shown great promise in providing valuable information involving radioactive waste management and contamination prevention. For the application studied in this work, 65 Zn has been identified as a radioactive contaminant during tritium extraction. Due to the volatile nature of 65 Zn under the pressure and temperature changes during extraction operations, 65 Zn can easily travel through components of the extraction system as vapor, making it difficult to trap. Previous research involving the development of a filtration system showed that the 65 Zn can be trapped, mitigating product contamination. However, during the extraction process, direct analysis of the equipment to confirm that zinc contamination is trapped in the filter and has not spread to other components is impractical. Here, in this situation, the need to assay the location of the contamination with little-to-no interference with operations is vital. In this work, we demonstrate the use of a commercialized 3D position-sensitive CdZnTe (CZT) gamma-ray imaging spectrometer to provide analysis of the 65 Zn contamination. Onsite measurements during an extraction process are studied to assess the location and migration of the 65 Zn. The results obtained from real-time glovebox monitoring demonstrate the feasibility of gamma-ray imaging for localizing the contamination and providing a preliminary qualitative assessment that is intended to be used in future work quantifying the contamination build-up and activity over time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2016

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification of Reactor Simulation with Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Model

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) is significant part of modelling and simulation. This is particularly important in the nuclear community due to the fact that the licensing of nuclear installations has shifted from conservative to Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodologies. UQ can be broadly classified as forward UQ and inverse UQ. Forward UQ is the process of quantifying the uncertainties in simulation outputs by propagating the uncertainties in input parameters. It requires knowledge in the input uncertainty, which is often specified by ad-hoc expert judgment which lacks mathematical rigor. The inverse UQ is the process to determine the uncertainty in input parameters given observations of the output. The purpose of this paper is to replace such ad-hoc expert judgment of the statistical properties of input model parameters in nuclear reactor simulation. This summary presents work on inverse UQ of a nonlinear Point Reactor Kinetics Equations - lumped thermal-hydraulics parameter coupled problem. Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are used for the inverse UQ. Because MCMC requires a large number of simulations which is impractical for models that are computationally expensive, surrogate models is constructed by generalized Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansion technique. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous Synthesis of Metastable Materials Using a Modular Mixed-Flow Reactor

Understanding and controlling atomic-level processes at solid-liquid interfaces is key to advancing technologies in energy storage, carbon capture, critical element recovery, and materials synthesis. Many of these processes are dominated by the formation of short-lived intermediate precipitates that determine the final properties of synthesized materials. However, studying these intermediates is challenging due to their sensitivity and the reliance on trial-and-error methods. To address this, we developed an automated variable-volume mixed-flow reactor (MFR) to optimize metastable material synthesis and investigate rapid kinetic processes. This state-of-the-art MFR system, paired with an automated modeling framework, enables efficient synthesis and real-time analysis of transient phases. Benchmarking with advanced capabilities, such as wide-/small-angle X-ray scattering, allows us to resolve fast nucleation and growth dynamics that were previously inaccessible. By combining automation, ML-guided optimization, and tailored kinetic modeling, this approach provides a robust platform for improving material design and achieving precise control over solid-liquid reactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sensitivity Analysis of Passive Heat Removal Capability of FHR Based on Efficient Surrogate Model and GenFlow

Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty Evaluation Methodology (CSAU) is used for quantifying reactor safety margins and works as an alternative method for licensing nuclear power plant. In the framework of CSAU, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (SA and UA) should be performed. However, for large-scale complicated thermal hydraulics analysis simulated by code (e.g. RELAP5, CFD and subchannel analysis, the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is really time-consuming. Furthermore, sometimes it is not feasible to perform SA and UA. Specifically, the computation time for Monte Carlo sampling or advanced LHS sampling can be neglected, but the computation time for thermal hydraulics code makes up main part of time during SA and UA process. In order to accelerate the speed of SA and UA, thermal hydraulics code can be improved based on advanced mathematic algorithm or using parallel method. However, the development for new mathematic method needs long time and strict verification and validation process is needed for a new code, which usually takes a couple of years or even longer time to have an approved code that can be used in nuclear industry. An alternative way to improve the speed of SA and UA is using surrogate model. The surrogate model is derived from the input as well as output data of the original code, assuming the code as a black box. The most common method is using response surface method (RSM) as a surrogate for the code, the input parameters are then sampled from their assumed distribution and the corresponding value of the response surface function is calculated. However, a couple of input parameters need hundreds or even thousands of original code calculations. The large number of runs is an obvious disadvantage of this method. Besides, the second disadvantage is an appropriate response surface function must be selected (e.g. quadratic, cubic, quartic, with or without cross product terms, or using a non-polynomial form) to avoid the overfit and underfit problem. This process is time consuming and expensive. Polynomial chaos expansion method is a reasonably fast and attractive alternative, stochastic model. The chaos expansion provides an efficient high-order method of including non-linear effects in stochastic analysis. Usually, the information about the model parameters and their probability distribution is limited and the dependence between them is not known. However, if arbitrary polynomial chaos is used, instead of assuming probability distribution for input parameters which may introduces additional subjectivity into the analysis, the available information can directly and most purely be used in stochastic analysis based on arbitrary data distribution. Thus, it is not necessary to know the exact probability density functions to perform SA and UA based on arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC). The aPC has been applied for uncertainty quantification in many fields (e.g. in solid mechanics, fluid flows, thermal sciences), and become widely used in nuclear industry recently. Mk1 PB-FHR is a small modular fluoride-salt-cooled, high-temperature reactors (FHRs) that is a concept design by University of California, Berkeley (UCB). It has inherently safe features like natural-circulation-driven systems (e.g. direct reactor auxiliary cooling system (DRACS)) to passively remove decay heat from the reactor core during design basis and beyond design. It is necessary to perform SA and UA, since the licensing process of this new kind of reactor is under way and there are many design parameters that have not been fixed. Current nuclear commercial codes, such as RELAP5, have mainly been developed for light water reactors, which require the use of comprehensive two-phase flow models. This capability is not required to simulate single-phase flow phenomena in FHRs, whose baseline coolant, flibe, remains liquid up to 1430 deg. C at atmospheric pressure. The FHR advanced natural circulation analysis (FANCY) code has been developed specifically for FHR technology modeling and validation work has been performed by using CIET data in UCB. The code has been renamed General Flow (GenFlow) because it has been further developed to have the capability to model complicated pipework system based on object-oriented concept for user friendly purpose. Besides, it can be used to simulate both the force circulation as well as natural circulation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Performance assessment modeling of a generic SNF/HLW repository in salt with coupled thermal-hydrologic effects - 15423

This paper describes advances in performance assessment modeling of deep geologic repositories facilitated by a massively parallel, high-performance computing (HPC) environment. Our new Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) Framework utilizes the massively parallel PFLOTRAN multi-physics code to simulate repository performance in the presence of coupled thermal-hydrologic-chemical processes, linked to DAKOTA, an HPC uncertainty sampling and propagation code that provides nested parallelism for multi-realization performance assessment and sensitivity analysis. This enhanced performance assessment (PA) modeling capability is demonstrated with deterministic and probabilistic simulations of a generic repository for SNF and HLW in bedded salt host rock, by comparing repository performance between a case with heat-generating waste ('thermal' case) and a case without heat generation ('isothermal' case). The simulation results provide preliminary insights into the effect of multi-physics processes and thermal-hydrologic coupling on the long-term behavior of a reference-case salt repository. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigating the Evolution of Ice Particle Distributions in Mixed-Phase Clouds

The goal of this project is to conduct modeling studies that focus on the processes that control the macrophysical and microphysical properties of mixed phase clouds, such as the partitioning of water phase and the processes that promote precipitation and govern cloud evolution. The process specific to this project is the collection of vapor-grown non-spherical ice crystals and snow hydrometeors through aggregation, as uncertainty remains in the evolution of particle properties as they aggregate. To aid in the understanding of ice particle evolution from pristine monomers to aggregates, the aggregation process is depicted using an offline simulator for ice crystal collection, namely the Ice Particle and Aggregate Simulator (IPAS). Of particular interest in the context of this work is the influence of monomer habit on aggregation and subsequently on cloud microphysical structure. This overarching goal has been completed by conducting modeling studies using the Adaptive Habit Model (AHM) in mixed-phase cloud systems, which predicts and evolves ice shape. While the AHM is designed with physical detail in mind, those details may be lost on larger spatial or temporal scales. Hence, how the contributions of particle growth and collection control the evolution of ice particle size distributions (PSDs) and redistribute mass within the cloud and at the surface has been investigated. Analyses include microphysical sensitivity investigations that inform on future improvement capabilities of microphysical parameterizations in larger scale models. Further, improvements of processes within ice clouds have resulted from this work as the environmental processes controlling ice crystal growth, microphysical processes, and precipitation are inherently integrated within this investigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the Acute Health Impacts of Fire-Originated PM 2.5 Exposure During the 2017 California Wildfires: Sensitivity to Choices of Inputs

Exposure to wildfire smoke increases the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Health impact assessments, used to inform decision-making processes, characterize the health impacts of environmental exposures by combining preexisting epidemiological concentration–response functions (CRFs) with estimates of exposure. These two key inputs influence the magnitude and uncertainty of the health impacts estimated, but for wildfire-related impact assessments the extent of their impact is largely unknown. We first estimated the number of respiratory, cardiovascular, and asthma hospital admissions attributable to fire-originated PM 2.5 exposure in central California during the October 2017 wildfires, using Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty with respect to the exposure and epidemiological inputs. We next conducted sensitivity analyses, comparing four estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 and two CRFs, wildfire and nonwildfire specific, to understand their impact on the estimation of excess admissions and sources of uncertainty. We estimate the fires accounted for an excess 240 (95% CI: 114, 404) respiratory, 68 (95% CI: -10, 159) cardiovascular, and 45 (95% CI: 18, 81) asthma hospital admissions, with 56% of admissions occurring in the Bay Area. Although differences between impact assessment methods are not statistically significant, the admissions estimates' magnitude is particularly sensitive to the CRF specified while the uncertainty is most sensitive to estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 . Not accounting for the exposure surface's uncertainty leads to an underestimation of the uncertainty of the health impacts estimated. Employing context-specific CRFs and using accurate exposure estimates that combine multiple data sets generates more certain estimates of the acute health impacts of wildfires.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗