Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Normal Distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,657 records · Page 92
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Plasma Heating in Solar Microflares: Statistics and Analysis

In this paper we present the results of an analysis of 481 weak solar flares, from A0.01 class flares to the B GOES class, that were observed during the period of extremely low solar activity from 2009 April to July. For all flares we measured the temperature of the plasma in the isothermal and two-temperature approximations and tried to fit its relationship with the X-ray class using exponential and power-law functions. We found that the whole temperature distribution in the range from A0.01 to X-class cannot be fit by one exponential function. The fitting for weak flares below A1.0 is significantly steeper than that for medium and large flares. The power-law approximation seems to be more reliable: the corresponding functions were found to be in good agreement with experimental data both for microflares and for normal flares. Our study predicts that evidence of plasma heating can be found in flares starting from the A0.0002 X-ray class. Weaker events presumably cannot heat the surrounding plasma. We also estimated emission measures for all flares studied and the thermal energy for 113 events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-I-87: Calibrating Cherenkov Emission to Match Superficial Dose in Tissue

Purpose: Through Monte Carlo simulations and phantom studies, the dominant factors affecting the calibration of superficial Cherenkov intensity to absolute surface dose was investigated, including tissue optical properties, curvatures, beam properties and imaging angle. Methods: The phasespace files for the TrueBeam system from Varian were used in GAMOS (a GEANT4 based Monte Carlo simulation toolkit) to simulate surface emission Cherenkov signals and the correlated deposited dose. The parameters examined were: i) different tissue optical properties (skin color from light to dark), ii) beam types (X-ray and electron beam), iii) beam energies, iv) thickness of tissues (2.5 cm to 20 cm), v) SSD (80 cm to 120 cm), vi) field sizes (0.5×0.5 cm2 to 20×20 cm2), vii) entrance/exit sides, viii) curvatures (cylinders with diameters from 2.5 cm to 20cm) and ix) imaging angles (0 to 90 degrees). In a specific case, for any Cherenkov photon emitted from the surface, the original position and direction, final position and direction and energy were recorded. Similar experimental measurements were taken in a range of the most pertinent parameters using tissue phantoms. Results: Combining the dose distribution and sampling sensitivity of Cherenkov emission, quantitatively accurate calibration factors (the amount of radiation dose represented by a single Cherenkov photon) were calculated. The data showed relatively large dependence upon different optical properties, curvature, entrance/exit and beam types. For a diffusive surface, the calibration factor was insensitive to imaging angles smaller than 60 degrees. Normalization with the reflectance image was experimentally validated as a simple and accurate method for calibrations of different optical properties. Conclusion: This study sheds light on how and to what extent different conditions affect the calibration from Cherenkov intensity to absolute superficial dose and provides practical solutions to allow quantitative Cherenkov imaging to be used as a dose surrogate for imaging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Areal interpolation of population projections consistent with different SSPs from 1-km resolution to block level based on USA Structures dataset

Population data are normally collected at various census administrative levels, and areal interpolation of population is often required to transform population to the desired spatial resolution. Building footprint datasets, such as Microsoft building footprints, have proven to be useful in estimating population distribution and can therefore be used for areal interpolation of population. In addition to Microsoft building footprints, the recently released USA Structures dataset provides additional information such as building type and building height for some regions, which may provide valuable information for a better depiction of population distribution and improved population areal interpolation accuracy. In this study, we have conducted areal interpolation of population projections consistent with three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5) from 1-km grid cells to block level in Washington state for every ten years from 2020 to 2040 based on USA Structures. We assessed USA Structures-based population downscaling accuracy using U.S. decennial survey data in 2020 under three different downscaling schemes, including population downscaling from census tracts to block groups, from census tracts to blocks, and from block groups to blocks. The resulting accuracies were compared with those based on Microsoft building footprints. The comparison showed that USA Structures achieved higher accuracies across different population density regions and areas with different urbanization extent within our study area.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Systematics in the XENON1T data: The 15-keV anti-axion

The XENON1T collaboration Aprile et al. [2020] has found an excess of electron recoil events in their Science Run 1 data below ~7 keV with a spectral shape consistent with that expected from a solar-axion-induced signal. The claimed statistical significance of the solar-axion model over the null hypothesis is 3.5σ. In this work we provide suggestive evidence for mismodeling in the electron recoil data that may decrease the local significance of the axion model. To reach this conclusion, we search for a signal with the spectral template of the solar axion model, but shifted to higher (unphysical) energies above ~7 keV. We find that the distribution of significances found from this side-band analysis does not follow the expected chi-square distribution. For example, we find a high-significance feature in the data, with a global $p$-value $p≈0.026$, when the solar axion model is shifted upwards in energy by ~15 keV and allowed to have a negative normalization. We argue that such statistical tests, if performed a priori, provide a data-driven way to test and potentially account for systematic uncertainties on the background model in low-threshold dark matter experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Pre-equilibrium dynamics and heavy-ion observables

To bracket the importance of the pre-equilibrium stage on relativistic heavy-ion collision observables, we compare simulations where it is modeled by either free-streaming partons or fluid dynamics. These cases implement the assumptions of extremely weak vs. extremely strong coupling in the initial collision stage. Accounting for flow generated in the pre-equilibrium stage, we study the sensitivity of radial, elliptic and triangular flow on the switching time when the hydrodynamic description becomes valid. Using the hybrid code iEBE-VISHNU [1] we perform a multi-parameter search, constrained by particle ratios, integrated elliptic and triangular charged hadron flow, the mean transverse momenta of pions, kaons and protons, and the second moment of the proton transverse momentum spectrum, to identify optimized values for the switching time \tau_s from pre-equilibrium to hydrodynamics, the specific shear viscosity eta/s, the normalization factor of the temperature-dependent specific bulk viscosity (zeta/s)(T), and the switching temperature T_sw from viscous hydrodynamics to the hadron cascade UrQMD. With the optimized parameters, we predict and compare with experiment the p_T -distributions of pi, K, p, Lambda, Xi and Omega yields and their elliptic flow coefficients, focusing specifically on the mass-ordering of the elliptic flow for protons and Lambda hyperons which is incorrectly described by VISHNU without pre-equilibrium flow.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Sources and Transport Processes During Extreme Ammonia Episodes in the U.S. Corn Belt

Abstract Atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ) is the primary form of reactive nitrogen (N r ) and a precursor of ammonium (NH 4 + ) aerosols. Ammonia has been linked to adverse impacts on human health, the loss of ecosystem biodiversity, and plays a key role in aerosol radiative forcing. The midwestern United States is the major NH 3 source in North America because of dense livestock operations and the high use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. Here, we combine tall‐tower (100 m) observations in Minnesota and Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) modeling to investigate high and low NH 3 emission episodes within the U.S. Corn Belt to improve our understanding of the distribution of emission sources and transport processes. We examined observations and performed model simulations for cases in February through November of 2017 and 2018. The results showed the following: (1) Peak emissions in November 2017 were enhanced by above‐normal air temperatures, implying a Q 10 (i.e., the change in NH 3 emissions for a temperature increase of 10°C) of 2.5 for emissions. (2) The intensive livestock emissions rom northern Iowa, approximately 400 km away from the tall tower, accounted for 17.6% of the abundance in tall‐tower NH 3 mixing ratios. (3) Ammonia mixing ratios in the innermost domain 3 frequently (i.e., 336 hr, 48% of November 2017) exceeded 5.3 ppb, an important air quality health standard. (4) In November 2017, simulated NH 3 net ecosystem exchange (the difference between NH 3 emissions and dry deposition) accounted for 60–65% of gross NH 3 emissions for agricultural areas and was 2.8–3.1 times the emissions of forested areas. (5) We estimated a mean annual NH 3 net ecosystem exchange of 1.60 ± 0.06 nmol · m −2 · s −1 for agricultural lands and −0.07 ± 0.02 nmol · m −2 · s −1 for forested lands. These results imply that future warmer fall temperatures will enhance agricultural NH 3 emissions, increase the frequency of dangerous NH 3 episodes, and enhance dry NH 3 deposition in adjacent forested lands.

Hu, Cheng↗
DOE OSTI2011

THE GLOBULAR CLUSTER POPULATION OF NGC 7457: CLUES TO THE EVOLUTION OF FIELD S0 GALAXIES

In this paper, we present the results of a wide-field imaging study of the globular cluster (GC) system of the field S0 galaxy NGC 7457. To derive the global properties of the GC system, we obtained deep BVR images with the WIYN 3.5 m telescope and Minimosaic Imager and studied the GC population of NGC 7457 to a projected radius of {approx}30 kpc. Our ground-based data were combined with archival and published Hubble Space Telescope data to probe the properties of the GC system close to the galaxy center and reduce contamination in the GC candidate sample from foreground stars and background galaxies. We performed surface photometry of NGC 7457 and compared the galaxy's surface brightness profile with the surface density profile of the GC system. The profiles have similar shapes in the inner 1' (3.9 kpc), but the GC system profile appears to flatten relative to the galaxy light at larger radii. The GC system of NGC 7457 is noticeably elliptical in our images; we measure {epsilon} = 0.66 {+-} 0.14 for the GC distribution, which is consistent with our measured ellipticity of the galaxy light. We integrated the radial surface density profile of the GC system to derive a total number of GCs, N{sub GC} = 210 {+-} 30. The GC specific frequencies normalized by the galaxy luminosity and mass are S{sub N} = 3.1 {+-} 0.7 and T = 4.8 {+-} 1.1, respectively. Comparing the derived GC system properties and other empirical data for NGC 7457 to S0 formation scenarios suggests that this field S0 galaxy may have formed in an unequal-mass merger.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Quasi-adiabatic dynamics of ions in a bifurcated current sheet

The study is devoted to ion dynamics in bifurcated current sheets with a two-peak current-density distribution observed in the Earth's magnetotail and solar wind. The ion motion is described by a Hamiltonian system with two degrees of freedom. The presence of a small parameter {kappa} characterizing the ratio between the amplitudes of the normal and tangential magnetic field components allows one to separate variables into fast and slow ones and introduce the quasi-adiabatic invariant of motion I{sub z}. Conservation of this invariant makes it possible to analytically describe the dynamics of charged particles. Deviations of the particle dynamics from the quasi-adiabatic one, which are caused by the nonconservation of the quasi-adiabatic invariant, are investigated. The jump of the invariant {Delta}I{sub z} is shown to depend on the small parameter according to the power-law {Delta}I{sub z} {approx} {kappa}{sup h}, where the exponent h varies between unity and 3/4, depending on the level of current sheet bifurcation. The obtained dependence of {Delta}I{sub z} on {kappa} coincides with analytic expressions in the limiting cases of nonbifurcated and completely bifurcated current sheets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The secret structure of the gravitational vacuum

We argue that the vacuum of quantum gravity must contain a hierarchical structure of correlations spanning all length scales. These correlated domains (called “vecros”) correspond to virtual fluctuations of black hole microstates. Larger fluctuations are suppressed by their larger action, but this suppression is offset by a correspondingly larger phase space of possible configurations. We give an explicit lattice model of these vecro fluctuations, noting how their distribution changes as the gravitational pull of a star becomes stronger. At the threshold of formation of a closed trapped surface, these virtual fluctuations transition into on-shell black hole microstates (fuzzballs). Fuzzballs radiate from their surface like normal bodies, resolving the information paradox. Here, we also argue that any model without vecro-type extended vacuum correlations cannot resolve the paradox.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Triso Analysis Tool For Predictive Source Terms

Source term modeling for TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel has been performed for previous reactor designs, but few are available in the open literature. Thus, there is a need to develop a simple, versatile, and mechanistic model of fission product release and transport in gas reactor cores that can be applied to a variety of reactors through user inputs and reactor-specific radionuclide inventories. To meet this need, the TRISO Analysis Tool for Predictive Source terms (TRISO-ATOPS) was developed. This model calculates the release of the key safety-important fission products by diffusion through the kernel, silicon carbide and graphite based on fuel and graphite temperatures in the reactor under normal operation. These releases from the fuel enter the coolant where they can plate-out on cooler surfaces. A clean-up model is included for designs with a coolant purification system for removing fission gases. This initial distribution of fission products in the reactor serves as an initial condition for potential releases under postulated accident conditions. From this initial condition, the model calculates the fission product release for any transient temperature profile, and the fission product releases can then be used to assess radiological dose to the workers and the public using conventional radiological dose tools. Data on the diffusion of fission products is based on historic German TRISO experiments and the more current Department of Energy Advanced Gas Reactor TRISO fuel development program. The example cases in this work demonstrate the flexibility of the model

Stoyer, Benjamin [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
DOE OSTI2016

Bayesian analysis of cosmic ray propagation: evidence against homogeneous diffusion

We present the results of the most complete scan of the parameter space for cosmic ray (CR) injection and propagation. We perform a Bayesian search of the main GALPROP parameters, using the MultiNest nested sampling algorithm, augmented by the BAMBI neural network machine-learning package. This is the first study to separate out low-mass isotopes (p, p-bar , and He) from the usual light elements (Be, B, C, N, and O). We find that the propagation parameters that best-fit p, p-bar , and He data are significantly different from those that fit light elements, including the B/C and {sup 10}Be/{sup 9}Be secondary-to-primary ratios normally used to calibrate propagation parameters. This suggests that each set of species is probing a very different interstellar medium, and that the standard approach of calibrating propagation parameters using B/C can lead to incorrect results. We present posterior distributions and best-fit parameters for propagation of both sets of nuclei, as well as for the injection abundances of elements from H to Si. The input GALDEF files with these new parameters will be included in an upcoming public GALPROP update.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

"Source Term Modeling for Advanced Gas Micro-Reactors"

Maintaining the safety of the public, environment, and operating personnel is the most important factor in designing, operating, maintaining, and decommissioning nuclear reactors. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the development of micro-reactors employing TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel. In gas reactors, TRISO fuel plays an important role in the safety case for high temperature reactors because of the fission product retention properties of the fuel. This ability enables the use of a functional containment strategy for the reactor where multiple barriers are used to prevent fission product release to the environment. Part of the safety analysis of these advanced reactors is the assessment of radionuclide releases under normal and accident conditions through the multiple credited safety barriers. Using conservative assumptions, a mechanistic analysis can be performed to quantify these releases that combines the probabilistic assessment of failure with analytic solutions to radionuclide transport equations. Source term modeling for TRISO fuel has been performed for previous reactor designs; however, these models are outdated, in many cases proprietary, and need updates to be applied to the current state of TRISO fuel technology and alternative gas reactor core configurations [1]. Currently, the only publicly available source term assessment for gas reactors is an expert-based Monte Carlo simulation based on the effectiveness of the fuel kernel, coating layers, and graphite block in a modular high temperature gas reactor [2]. Thus, there is a need to develop a simple, versatile, and mechanistic model of fission product release and transport in gas reactor cores that could be applied to a variety of reactors through user inputs and reactor-specific radionuclide inventories. The release is calculated by the diffusion of the key safety important fission products through the kernel, silicon carbide (SiC), graphite for both intact and defective TRISO particles based on fuel and graphite temperatures in the reactor under normal operation. These releases from the fuel enter the coolant where they can plate-out on cooler surfaces. A clean-up model is included for designs with a coolant purification system to remove fission gases. This initial distribution of fission products in the reactor serves as an initial condition for potential releases under postulated accident conditions. The model then can calculate the fission product release for any transient temperature profile and fission product releases can then be used to assess radiological dose to the workers and the public using conventional dose tools. Data on the diffusion of fission products is based on historic German TRISO experiments and the more current Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) TRISO fuel development program. The model is coded in python with inputs and outputs in excel spreadsheets, as well as python plotting utilities to aid in the interpretation of the results. References: [1] INL, NGNP Mechanistic Source Term White Paper, INL-10-17997, July 2010. [2] David A. Petti, Richard R. Hobbins, Peter Lowry, Hans Gougar, “Representative Source Terms and The Influence of Reactor Attributes on Functional Containment in Modular High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors,” Nuclear Technology, Vol. 184, p. 181-197, Nov. 2013.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluating the effect of internal aperture variability on transport in kilometer scale discrete fracture networks

The apertures of natural fractures in fractured rock are highly heterogeneous. However, in-fracture aperture variability is often neglected in flow and transport modeling and individual fractures are assumed to have uniform aperture distribution. The relative importance of in-fracture variability in flow and transport modeling within kilometer18 scale field–scale fracture networks has been under a matter of debate for a long time because the flow in each single fracture is controlled not only by in-fracture variability but also by boundary conditions. Computational limitations have previously prohibited researchers from investigating the relative importance of in-fracture variability in flow and transport modeling within large-scale fracture networks. We address this question by incorporating internal heterogeneity of individual fractures into 23 flow simulations within kilometer scale three-dimensional fracture networks, where fracture intensity, P32 (ratio between total fracture area and domain volume) is between 0.027 and 0.031 [1/m]. A recently developed discrete fracture network (DFN) simulation capability, dfnWorks, is used to generate DFNs that include in-fracture aperture variability represented by a stationary log-normal stochastic field with various correlation lengths and variances. The Lagrangian transport parameters, non-reacting travel time and cumulative retention, are calculated along particles streamlines. It is observed that due to local flow channeling early particle travel times are more sensitive to in-fracture variability than the tails of travel time distributions, where no significant effect of the in-fracture transmissivity variations and spatial correlation length is observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Adaptive Voltage Regulation for Solar Power Inverters on Distribution Systems

The most recent version of IEEE 1547 has incorporated four reactive power control modes, including constant power factor, voltage-reactive power (Volt-Var), active power-reactive power and constant reactive power. These modes are specified to be mutually exclusive, and they don’t include every smart inverter function proposed by industry collaboration. In earlier work, we found that Volt-Var settings could be optimized but were sensitive to changes in the normal grid voltage. This sensitivity can be mitigated by combining Volt-Var with dynamic reactive current (DRC), but neither DRC nor combined modes appear in IEEE 1547. One problem with Volt-Var is the default dead-band; it mitigates the sensitivity to setpoint, but also limits the effectiveness in managing voltage fluctuations. There has been continued interest in tuning smart inverter functions locally, and in combining central with local control, but this process still requires extensive simulations. The goal is to find a default inverter setting that will effectively mitigate voltage fluctuations even as grid conditions change. It must be compatible with the current version of IEEE 1547. It should also be compatible with advanced control methods when available. Otherwise, it should not require communications, detailed engineering studies or field commissioning of custom settings. This would facilitate the integration of distributed solar in larger amounts. Adaptive voltage regulation (AVR) is a Volt-Var implementation, but with “autonomously adjusting” setpoint as described below Table 8 in IEEE 1547. Through simulation of a test system in OpenDSS, it was shown that AVR having a high gain and a time constant of 300 seconds could work well in any location. This mode and setting should be considered for a new universal default setting on smart inverters.

McDermott, Thomas E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurements of angular distance and momentum ratio distributions in three-jet and $${\text {Z}}$$ + two-jet final states in $${\text {p}}{\text {p}}$$ collisions

Collinear (small-angle) and large-angle, as well as soft and hard radiations are investigated in three-jet and Z + two-jet events collected in proton-proton collisions at the LHC. The normalized production cross sections are measured as a function of the ratio of transverse momenta of two jets and their angular separation. The measurements in the three-jet and Z + two-jet events are based on data collected at a center-of-mass energy of 8TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.8fb -1 . The Z + two-jet events are reconstructed in the dimuon decay channel of the Z boson. The three-jet measurement is extended to include $\sqrt {s}$=13TeV data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.3fb -1 . The results are compared to predictions from event generators that include parton showers, multiple parton interactions, and hadronization. The collinear and soft regions are in general well described by parton showers, whereas the regions of large angular separation are often best described by calculations using higher-order matrix elements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solving high-dimensional inverse problems using amortized likelihood-free inference with noisy and incomplete data

Here, we present a likelihood-free probabilistic inversion method based on normalizing flows for high-dimensional inverse problems. The proposed method is composed of two complementary networks: a summary network for data compression and an inference network for parameter estimation. The summary network encodes raw observations into a fixed-size vector of summary features, while the inference network generates samples of the approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters based on these summary features. The posterior samples are produced in a deep generative fashion by sampling from a latent Gaussian distribution and passing these samples through an invertible transformation. We construct this invertible transformation by sequentially alternating conditional invertible neural network and conditional neural spline flow layers. The summary and inference networks are trained simultaneously. We apply the proposed method to an inversion problem in groundwater hydrology to estimate the posterior distribution of the log-conductivity field conditioned on spatially sparse time-series observations of the system’s hydraulic head responses. The conductivity field is represented with 706 degrees of freedom in the considered problem. Comparison with the likelihood-based iterative ensemble smoother PEST-IES method demonstrates that the proposed method accurately estimates the parameter posterior distribution and the observations’ predictive posterior distribution at a fraction of the inference time of PEST-IES.

conditional invertible neural network↗
DOE OSTI2016

SUPERNOVA DRIVING. III. SYNTHETIC MOLECULAR CLOUD OBSERVATIONS

We present a comparison of molecular clouds (MCs) from a simulation of supernova (SN) driven interstellar medium (ISM) turbulence with real MCs from the Outer Galaxy Survey. The radiative transfer calculations to compute synthetic CO spectra are carried out assuming that the CO relative abundance depends only on gas density, according to four different models. Synthetic MCs are selected above a threshold brightness temperature value, T {sub B,min} = 1.4 K, of the J = 1 − 0 {sup 12}CO line, generating 16 synthetic catalogs (four different spatial resolutions and four CO abundance models), each containing up to several thousands MCs. The comparison with the observations focuses on the mass and size distributions and on the velocity–size and mass–size Larson relations. The mass and size distributions are found to be consistent with the observations, with no significant variations with spatial resolution or chemical model, except in the case of the unrealistic model with constant CO abundance. The velocity–size relation is slightly too steep for some of the models, while the mass–size relation is a bit too shallow for all models only at a spatial resolution dx ≈ 1 pc. The normalizations of the Larson relations show a clear dependence on spatial resolution, for both the synthetic and the real MCs. The comparison of the velocity–size normalization suggests that the SN rate in the Perseus arm is approximately 70% or less of the rate adopted in the simulation. Overall, the realistic properties of the synthetic clouds confirm that SN-driven turbulence can explain the origin and dynamics of MCs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Personal Fuel Economy in Conventional and Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Integrating Driving Cycle Predictions with Power Distribution Optimization

Improving fuel efficiency and lowering emissions are key societal goals. Standard driving cycles, pre-designed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have long been used to estimate vehicle fuel efficiency in laboratory controlled conditions. They have also been used to test and tune different energy management strategies for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). This study uses standard driving cycles as a base for comparison, while aiming to develop fuel efficiency estimates based on personalized driving cycles that can inform consumers’ vehicle purchase and use decisions. To do this, we extracted driving cycles for conventional vehicles and HEVs from a large-scale survey that contains real-world GPS-based driving records. Next, the driving cycles were assigned to one of three categories: aggressive, normal, or calm. Then the driving cycles were used along with a driver-vehicle simulation that captures driver decisions (vehicle speed during a trip), powertrain, and vehicle dynamics to estimate personal fuel efficiency for conventional vehicles and HEVs. To optimize personal fuel efficiency estimates, the Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy (ECMS) is applied. Depending on the driving style (aggressive, normal, or calm) and the driving scenario (city or highway driving), conventional vehicle fuel consumption can vary widely compared with standard EPA driving cycles. Specifically, conventional vehicle fuel efficiency was 13% lower in calm city driving, but almost 34% higher for aggressive highway driving compared with standard EPA driving cycles. Interestingly, when a driving cycle is predicted based on application of case-based reasoning and used to tune the power distribution in HEVs, their fuel consumption can improve by up to 12% in city driving. Implications and limitations of the findings are discussed in the paper.

Liu, Jun↗