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NASA NTRS1982

Utilization of normal mode initial conditions for detecting errors in the dynamics part of primitive equation global models

When a global atmospheric basic state has constant angular velocity and its temperature varies with altitude only, there exist normal mode solutions to the linearized global primitive equations. The use of these normal modes, which have known behavior in time, is superior to the use of the Rossby-Haurwitz wave as initial conditions for detecting errors in the dynamics part of primitive equation global models. With these initial conditions, integration through only one time step is sufficient to detect many formulation and coding errors. Other tests are still required for detecting problems of nonlinear instability and conservation of integral properties, however.

Chao, W. C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Status of the NASA GMAO Observing System Simulation Experiment

An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a pure modeling study used when actual observations are too expensive or difficult to obtain. OSSEs are valuable tools for determining the potential impact of new observing systems on numerical weather forecasts and for evaluation of data assimilation systems (DAS). An OSSE has been developed at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO, Errico et al 2013). The GMAO OSSE uses a 13-month integration of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts 2005 operational model at T511/L91 resolution for the Nature Run (NR). Synthetic observations have been updated so that they are based on real observations during the summer of 2013. The emulated observation types include AMSU-A, MHS, IASI, AIRS, and HIRS4 radiance data, GPS-RO, and conventional types including aircraft, rawinsonde, profiler, surface, and satellite winds. The synthetic satellite wind observations are colocated with the NR cloud fields, and the rawinsondes are advected during ascent using the NR wind fields. Data counts for the synthetic observations are matched as closely as possible to real data counts, as shown in Figure 2. Errors are added to the synthetic observations to emulate representativeness and instrument errors. The synthetic errors are calibrated so that the statistics of observation innovation and analysis increments in the OSSE are similar to the same statistics for assimilation of real observations, in an iterative method described by Errico et al (2013). The standard deviations of observation minus forecast (xo-H(xb)) are compared for the OSSE and real data in Figure 3. The synthetic errors include both random, uncorrelated errors, and an additional correlated error component for some observational types. Vertically correlated errors are included for conventional sounding data and GPS-RO, and channel correlated errors are introduced to AIRS and IASI (Figure 4). HIRS, AMSU-A, and MHS have a component of horizontally correlated error. The forecast model used by the GMAO OSSE is the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DAS. The model version has been updated to v. 5.13.3, corresponding to the current operational model. Forecasts are run on a cube-sphere grid with 180 points along each edge of the cube (approximately 0.5 degree horizontal resolution) with 72 vertical levels. The DAS is cycled at 6-hour intervals, with 240 hour forecasts launched daily at 0000 UTC. Evaluation of the forecasting skill for July and August is currently underway. Prior versions of the GMAO OSSE have been found to have greater forecasting skill than real world forecasts. It is anticipated that similar forecast skill will be found in the updated OSSE.

OSSE↗
NASA NTRS2006

NASA Tech Briefs, June 2006

Topics covered include: Magnetic-Field-Response Measurement-Acquisition System; Platform for Testing Robotic Vehicles on Simulated Terrain; Interferometer for Low-Uncertainty Vector Metrology; Rayleigh Scattering for Measuring Flow in a Nozzle Testing Facility; "Virtual Feel" Capaciflectors; FETs Based on Doped Polyaniline/Polyethylene Oxide Fibers; Miniature Housings for Electronics With Standard Interfaces; Integrated Modeling Environment; Modified Recursive Hierarchical Segmentation of Data; Sizing Structures and Predicting Weight of a Spacecraft; Stress Testing of Data-Communication Networks; Framework for Flexible Security in Group Communications; Software for Collaborative Use of Large Interactive Displays; Microsphere Insulation Panels; Single-Wall Carbon Nanotube Anodes for Lithium Cells; Tantalum-Based Ceramics for Refractory Composites; Integral Flexure Mounts for Metal Mirrors for Cryogenic Use; Templates for Fabricating Nanowire/Nanoconduit- Based Devices; Measuring Vapors To Monitor the State of Cure of a Resin; Partial-Vacuum-Gasketed Electrochemical Corrosion Cell; Theodolite Ring Lights; Integrating Terrain Maps Into a Reactive Navigation Strategy; Reducing Centroid Error Through Model-Based Noise Reduction; Adaptive Modeling Language and Its Derivatives; Stable Satellite Orbits for Global Coverage of the Moon; and Low-Cost Propellant Launch From a Tethered Balloon

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the effect of wind speed and direction shear on utility‐scale wind turbine power production

Abstract Wind speed and direction variations across the rotor affect power production. As utility‐scale turbines extend higher into the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) with larger rotor diameters and hub heights, they increasingly encounter more complex wind speed and direction variations. We assess three models for power production that account for wind speed and direction shear. Two are based on actuator disc representations, and the third is a blade element representation. We also evaluate the predictions from a standard power curve model that has no knowledge of wind shear. The predictions from each model, driven by wind profile measurements from a profiling LiDAR, are compared to concurrent power measurements from an adjacent utility‐scale wind turbine. In the field measurements of the utility‐scale turbine, discrete combinations of speed and direction shear induce changes in power production of −19% to +34% relative to the turbine power curve for a given hub height wind speed. Positive speed shear generally corresponds to over‐performance and increasing magnitudes of direction shear to greater under‐performance, relative to the power curve. Overall, the blade element model produces both higher correlation and lower error relative to the other models, but its quantitative accuracy depends on induction and controller sub‐models. To further assess the influence of complex, non‐monotonic wind profiles, we also drive the models with best‐fit power law wind speed profiles and linear wind direction profiles. These idealized inputs produce qualitative and quantitative differences in power predictions from each model, demonstrating that time‐varying, non‐monotonic wind shear affects wind power production.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2022

Capacitive/Inductive Corrections for Numerical Implementation of Thin-Slot Transmission Line Models and Other Useful Formulas

Capacitance/inductance corrections for grid induced errors for a thin slot models are given for both one and four point testing on a rectangular grid for surface currents surrounding the slot. In addition a formula for translating from one equivalent radius to another is given for the thin-slot transmission line model. Additional formulas useful for this slot modeling are also given.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1972

Wind speeds in lower atmosphere of Venus: Status report on possible measurement via differential VLBI tracking of entry probes

The potential of very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) is examined for use in the determination of wind speeds in Venus' lower atmosphere via the differential tracking of entry probes. A simplified mathematical model is presented in detail. An incomplete error analysis based on this model permits an educated guess to be made: an uncertainty in wind speed determination of no more than about 100/t m/sec, where t l is the corresponding time resolution in seconds, is an achievable goal, without the use of transponders on the miniprobes. If transponders are available on all probes, there should be little difficulty in estimating wind speeds with useful precision.

Shapiro, I. I.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A study of orbit determination accuracies for future earth observatory missions

It is anticipated that global orbital accuracies of 10 meters will be required for future earth observatory missions. Results are presented of a study of the LANDSAT-1 orbit to determine position accuracies obtainable today so as to assess what future advancements are necessary to meet a 10-meter goal. Accuracies of 50 meters were determined to be achievable now from two-day tracking arcs. One-half-day arcs yield accuracies of about 30 meters. The dominant error source was found to be geopotential model uncertainty. All other systematic errors produced less than 10 meters total position error.

Bryant, W. C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie↗
NASA NTRS2016

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

Kilbourne, Hali↗
NASA NTRS1984

A Monte Carlo comparison of the recovery of winds near upwind and downwind from the SASS-1 model function by means of the sum of squares algorithm and a maximum likelihood estimator

Backscatter measurements at upwind and crosswind are simulated for five incidence angles by means of the SASS-1 model function. The effects of communication noise and attitude errors are simulated by Monte Carlo methods, and the winds are recovered by both the Sum of Square (SOS) algorithm and a Maximum Likelihood Estimater (MLE). The SOS algorithm is shown to fail for light enough winds at all incidence angles and to fail to show areas of calm because backscatter estimates that were negative or that produced incorrect values of K sub p greater than one were discarded. The MLE performs well for all input backscatter estimates and returns calm when both are negative. The use of the SOS algorithm is shown to have introduced errors in the SASS-1 model function that, in part, cancel out the errors that result from using it, but that also cause disagreement with other data sources such as the AAFE circle flight data at light winds. Implications for future scatterometer systems are given.

Pierson, W. J., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Temperature Dependence of the Langmuir Adsorption Model for a Single-Site Metal–Organic Framework

The single-site Langmuir adsorption model, also known as the Langmuir isotherm equation, is one of the simplest possible descriptions of adsorption phenomena, and yet finds widespread applicability across a range of disciplines. In its simplest form, it is deployed to treat adsorption equilibria at constant temperature (i.e., along isotherms); however, at the heart of its derivation is a more general class of models that each incorporate an explicit temperature dependence, subject to assumptions about the spatial/translational degrees of freedom of the adsorbed species. In this work, measurements of the temperature dependence of supercritical adsorption of H 2 on a single-site metal-organic framework (MOF) are presented, and fitted using a range of Langmuir models with distinct treatments of degrees of freedom in the adsorbed phase. Surprisingly, all of the models can be used to adequately represent the measured data, despite yielding significantly different values for binding energy and the temperature dependence of the isosteric enthalpy of adsorption (i.e., the isosteric heat, qst). Furthermore, a critical finding is that the mean-temperature isosteric enthalpy of adsorption remains consistent across all models within experimental error, highlighting its reliability for evaluating adsorption thermodynamics.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2003

A New Objective Technique for Verifying Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models

This report presents a new objective technique to verify predictions of the sea-breeze phenomenon over east-central Florida by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The Contour Error Map (CEM) technique identifies sea-breeze transition times in objectively-analyzed grids of observed and forecast wind, verifies the forecast sea-breeze transition times against the observed times, and computes the mean post-sea breeze wind direction and speed to compare the observed and forecast winds behind the sea-breeze front. The CEM technique is superior to traditional objective verification techniques and previously-used subjective verification methodologies because: It is automated, requiring little manual intervention, It accounts for both spatial and temporal scales and variations, It accurately identifies and verifies the sea-breeze transition times, and It provides verification contour maps and simple statistical parameters for easy interpretation. The CEM uses a parallel lowpass boxcar filter and a high-order bandpass filter to identify the sea-breeze transition times in the observed and model grid points. Once the transition times are identified, CEM fits a Gaussian histogram function to the actual histogram of transition time differences between the model and observations. The fitted parameters of the Gaussian function subsequently explain the timing bias and variance of the timing differences across the valid comparison domain. Once the transition times are all identified at each grid point, the CEM computes the mean wind direction and speed during the remainder of the day for all times and grid points after the sea-breeze transition time. The CEM technique performed quite well when compared to independent meteorological assessments of the sea-breeze transition times and results from a previously published subjective evaluation. The algorithm correctly identified a forecast or observed sea-breeze occurrence or absence 93% of the time during the two- month evaluation period from July and August 2000. Nearly all failures in CEM were the result of complex precipitation features (observed or forecast) that contaminated the wind field, resulting in a false identification of a sea-breeze transition. A qualitative comparison between the CEM timing errors and the subjectively determined observed and forecast transition times indicate that the algorithm performed very well overall. Most discrepancies between the CEM results and the subjective analysis were again caused by observed or forecast areas of precipitation that led to complex wind patterns. The CEM also failed on a day when the observed sea- breeze transition affected only a very small portion of the verification domain. Based on the results of CEM, the RAMS tended to predict the onset and movement of the sea-breeze transition too early and/or quickly. The domain-wide timing biases provided by CEM indicated an early bias on 30 out of 37 days when both an observed and forecast sea breeze occurred over the same portions of the analysis domain. These results are consistent with previous subjective verifications of the RAMS sea breeze predictions. A comparison of the mean post-sea breeze winds indicate that RAMS has a positive wind-speed bias for .all days, which is also consistent with the early bias in the sea-breeze transition time since the higher wind speeds resulted in a faster inland penetration of the sea breeze compared to reality.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evidence of Free-Bound Transitions in Warm Dense Matter and Their Impact on Equation-of-State Measurements

Warm dense matter (WDM) is now routinely created and probed in laboratories around the world, providing unprecedented insights into conditions achieved in stellar atmospheres, planetary interiors, and inertial confinement fusion experiments. However, the interpretation of these experiments is often filtered through models with systematic errors that are difficult to quantify. Due to the simultaneous presence of quantum degeneracy and thermal excitation, transitions in which free electrons are de-excited into thermally unoccupied bound states transferring momentum and energy to a scattered x-ray photon become viable. Here we show that such free-bound transitions are a particular feature of WDM and vanish in the limits of cold and hot temperatures. The inclusion of these transitions into the analysis of recent X-ray Thomson Scattering experiments on WDM at the National Ignition Facility and the Linac Coherent Light Source is required to obtain a physically consistent temperature from the Chihara decomposition. This interpretation is corroborated by agreement with a recently developed model-free thermometry technique and presents an important step for precisely characterizing and understanding the complex WDM state of matter.

Boehme, M [HZDR Dresden]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Magnetostrictive Ultrasonic Waveguide Transducer for In-Pile Thermometry

Real-time and reliable temperature measurement on nuclear fuels is crucial for the safe operation of existing pressurized-water reactors and future advanced nuclear reactors. Magnetostrictive materials deform when subjected to a magnetic field or exhibit magnetization variation when stressed. Here, based on these properties, this study prototyped an ultrasonic thermometer (UT) consisting of a magnetostrictive waveguide, a dc coil providing appropriate magnetic biasing, and an ac coil generating an acoustic impulse and detecting the resulting acoustic echoes. By tracking the time of flight between the excitation pulse and the echoes, the UT can potentially detect nuclear fuel cladding temperature from a long distance. In this study, magnetostrictive iron–gallium alloys, or Galfenol, were selected as the waveguide due to their large magnetostriction, superior temperature survivability, excellent radiation resilience, and high mechanical robustness. A multiphysics finite-element model considering electrical, magnetic, and mechanical dynamics in the magnetostrictive UT was then developed. The model exhibited an error of 0.24% in time-of-flight simulation and, therefore, enabled computer-aided design and guided signal processing. Between room temperature and 120 °C, the new Galfenol-based UT exhibits a linear sensitivity of 162.8×10 ₋6 °C ₋1 , which is 51.7% higher than a previous magnetostrictive UT based on iron–cobalt–vanadium alloys.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2023

Single-Band VLBI Absolute Astrometry

The ionospheric path delay impacts single-band very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) group delays, which limits their applicability for absolute astrometry. I consider two important cases: when observations are made simultaneously in two bands, but delays in only one band are available for a subset of observations and when observations are made at one band design. I developed optimal procedures of data analysis for both cases using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) ionosphere maps, provided a stochastic model that describes ionospheric errors, and evaluated their impact on source position estimates. I demonstrate that the stochastic model is accurate at a level of 15%. I found that using GNSS ionospheric maps as is introduces serious biases in estimates of declination and I developed a procedure that almost eliminates them. I found serendipitously that GNSS ionospheric maps have multiplicative errors and have to be scaled by 0.85 in order to mitigate the declination bias. A similar scale factor was found in comparison of the vertical total electron content from satellite altimetry against GNSS ionospheric maps. I favor interpretation of this scaling factor as a manifestation of the inadequacy of the thin shell model of the ionosphere. I showed that we are able to model the ionospheric path delay to the extent that no noticeable systematic errors emerge and we are able to assess adequately the contribution of the ionosphere-driven random errors on source positions. This makes single-band absolute astrometry a viable option that can be used for source position determination.

Radio astrometry↗
NASA NTRS1994

The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress in a model simulation of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacfic Ocean

The climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific is simulated using a newly developed upper ocean model. The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress are investigated in a hierarchy of numerical experiments with various combinations of vertical mixing algorithms and surface-forcing products. It is found that the large SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific is, to a large extent, controlled by the annually varying mixed layer depth which, in turn, is mainly determined by the competing effects of solar radiation and wind forcing. With the application of our hybrid vertical mixing scheme the model-simulated SST annual cycle is much improved in both amplitude and phase as compared to the case of a constant mixed layer depth. Beside the strong effects on vertical mixing, solar radiation is the primary heating term in the surface layer heat budget, and wind forcing influences SST by driving oceanic advective processes that redistribute heat in the upper ocean. For example, the SST seasonal cycle in the western Pacific basically follows the semiannual variation of solar heating, and the cycle in the central equatorial region is significantly affected by the zonal advective heat flux associated with the seasonally reversing South Equatorial Current. It has been shown in our experiments that the amount of heat flux modification needed to eliminate the annual mean SST errors in the model is, on average, no larger than the annual mean uncertainties among the various surface flux products used in this study. Whereas a bias correction is needed to account for remaining uncertainties in the annual mean heat flux, this study demonstrates that with proper treatment of mixed layer physics and realistic forcing functions the seasonal variability of SST is capable of being simulated successfully in response to external forcing without relying on a relaxation or damping formulation for the dominant surface heat flux contributions.

Chen, Dake↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of regional net CO 2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements

Inverse model intercomparison projects (MIPs) provide a chance to assess the uncertainties in inversion estimates arising from various sources. However, accurately quantifying ensemble CO 2 flux errors remains challenging and often relies on the ensemble spread. This study proposes a method for quantifying the errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimates from models taken from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 MIP by using independent airborne CO 2 measurements for the period 2015–2017. We first calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the ensemble mean of posterior CO 2 concentrations and airborne observations and then isolate the CO 2 concentration errors caused solely by the ensemble mean of posterior net fluxes by subtracting the observation, representation, and transport errors from seven regions. Our analysis reveals that the flux errors projected onto CO 2 space account for 55 %–85 % of the regional average RMSE over the 3 years, ranging from 0.88 to 1.91 ppm. In five regions, the error estimates based on observations exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of posterior fluxes by a factor of 1.33–1.93, implying an underestimation of the actual flux errors, while their magnitudes are comparable in two regions. The adjoint sensitivity analysis identifies that the underestimation of flux errors is prominent where the magnitudes of fossil fuel emissions exceed those of terrestrial-biosphere fluxes by a factor of 3–31 over the 3 years. This suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates associated with errors in the prescribed fossil fuel emissions common to all models. Our study emphasizes the value of airborne measurements for quantifying regional errors in ensemble net CO 2 flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linear viscoelastic characterization of electrically conductive adhesives used as interconnect in photovoltaic modules

Electrically conductive adhesives (ECAs) are incorporated into recent designs of photovoltaic (PV) modules and replace the traditional metallic solders as interconnects. This transition depicts a significant material change, and a proper understanding of the interconnects' mechanical response has not yet been established. However, such an understanding is necessary to (a) identify the driving forces for module degradation and failure, (b) allow for module design optimization, and (c) enable accurate lifetime predictions. This study summarizes the framework for the mechanical materials characterization and modeling of ECAs for PV applications. Only high-fidelity material models are able to capture the rate and temperature dependency of the ECA interconnect and allow for accurate modeling of the materials response. Furthermore, a linear viscoelastic representation is found to describe the mechanical response of the ECAs sufficiently well. The effects of curing conditions and environmental exposure are investigated, and material models for a variety of ECAs are reported and prepared for the use in numerical simulations. Overall, a finite element simulation of a generic submodel of a shingled cell module is used to highlight the need for high-fidelity material models and demonstrates the error made in the predicted stress states by using less sophisticated models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗