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At least 1,657 records · Page 92

The Effect of Spray Strips on a Model of the P3M-1 Flying Boat Hull

This note presents the results of a series of tests made in the N.A.C.A. tank on a one-sixth full-size model of the hull and side floats of the Navy P3M-1 flying boat for the purpose of finding a method of reducing the amount of spray thrown into the propellers of this craft when taking off and landing. The model was tested without spray strips and with five different spray-strip arrangements. The best arrangement was an improvement over the bare hull with no spray strips, but the improvement was not sufficient to be satisfactory with the propellers in the designed position.

Dawson, John R↗

Decadal Prediction Efforts in GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office)

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) plans to use our GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) to explore issues associated with predictability on decadal time scales and to contribute to the decadal prediction project that is part ofCMIP5. The GEOS-5 AOGCM is comprised of the GEOS-5 AGCM with the Catchment Land Surface Model, coupled to GFDL's MOM, version 4. We have assimilation systems for both the atmosphere and ocean. For our climate prediction efforts, the atmosphere will be initialized from the GEOS-5 Modem Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), available from 1979 to present at 112 resolution, and from 1948 to present at 2 resolution. The ocean assimilation is conducted within the coupled model framework, using the MERRA as a constraint for both the atmosphere and the ocean. The decadal prediction experiments will be conducted with a 1 atmosphere and a 112 ocean. Some initial results will be presented, focusing on initialization aspects of the GEOS-5 system.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗

Analysis of Summertime Convective Initiation in Central Alabama Using the Land Information System

During the summer months in the southeastern United States, convective initiation presents a frequent challenge to operational forecasters. Thunderstorm development has traditionally been referred to as random due to their disorganized, sporadic appearance and lack of atmospheric forcing. Horizontal variations in land surface characteristics such as soil moisture, soil type, land and vegetation cover could possibly be a focus mechanism for afternoon convection during the summer months. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) provides a stand-alone land surface modeling framework that incorporates these varying soil and vegetation properties, antecedent precipitation, and atmospheric forcing to represent the soil state at high resolution. The use of LIS as a diagnostic tool may help forecasters to identify boundaries in land surface characteristics that could correlate to favored regions of convection initiation. The NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) team has been collaborating with the National Weather Service Office in Birmingham, AL to help incorporate LIS products into their operational forecasting methods. This paper highlights selected convective case dates from summer 2009 when synoptic forcing was weak, and identifies any boundaries in land surface characteristics that may have contributed to convective initiation. The LIS output depicts the effects of increased sensible heat flux from urban areas on the development of convection, as well as convection along gradients in land surface characteristics and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These features may promote mesoscale circulations and/or feedback processes that can either enhance or inhibit convection. With this output previously unavailable to operational forecasters, LIS provides a new tool to forecasters in order to help eliminate the randomness of summertime convective initiation.

James, Robert S.↗

The effect of plant physiological responses to rising CO 2 on global streamflow

River flow statistics are expected to change as a result of increasing atmospheric CO 2 but uncertainty in Earth system model projections is high. While this is partly driven by changing precipitation, with well-known Earth system model uncertainties, in this work we show that the influence of plant stomatal conductance feedbacks can cause equally large changes in regional flood extremes and even act as the main control on future low latitude streamflow. Over most tropical land masses, modern climate predictions suggest that plant physiological effects will boost streamflow, overwhelming opposing effects of soil drying driven by the effects of CO 2 on atmospheric radiation, warming and rainfall redistribution. The relatively unknown uncertainties in representing eco-physiological processes must therefore be better constrained in land-surface models. To this end, we identify a distinct plant physiological fingerprint on annual peak, low and mean discharge throughout the tropics and identify river basins where physiological responses dominate radiative responses to rising CO 2 in modern climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Satellite Gravimetry Applied to Drought Monitoring

Near-surface wetness conditions change rapidly with the weather, which limits their usefulness as drought indicators. Deeper stores of water, including root-zone soil wetness and groundwater, portend longer-term weather trends and climate variations, thus they are well suited for quantifying droughts. However, the existing in situ networks for monitoring these variables suffer from significant discontinuities (short records and spatial undersampling), as well as the inherent human and mechanical errors associated with the soil moisture and groundwater observation. Remote sensing is a promising alternative, but standard remote sensors, which measure various wavelengths of light emitted or reflected from Earth's surface and atmosphere, can only directly detect wetness conditions within the first few centimeters of the land s surface. Such sensors include the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) C-band passive microwave measurement system on the National Aeronautic and Space Administration's (NASA) Aqua satellite, and the combined active and passive L-band microwave system currently under development for NASA's planned Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission. These instruments are sensitive to water as deep as the top 2 cm and 5 cm of the soil column, respectively, with the specific depth depending on vegetation cover. Thermal infrared (TIR) imaging has been used to infer water stored in the full root zone, with limitations: auxiliary information including soil grain size is required, the TIR temperature versus soil water content curve becomes flat as wetness increases, and dense vegetation and cloud cover impede measurement. Numerical models of land surface hydrology are another potential solution, but the quality of output from such models is limited by errors in the input data and tradeoffs between model realism and computational efficiency. This chapter is divided into eight sections, the next of which describes the theory behind satellite gravimetry. Following that is a summary of the GRACE mission and how hydrological information is gleaned from its gravity products. The fourth section provides examples of hydrological science enabled by GRACE. The fifth and sixth sections list the challenging aspects of GRACE derived hydrology data and how they are being overcome, including the use of data assimilation. The seventh section describes recent progress in applying GRACE for drought monitoring, including the development of new soil moisture and drought indicator products, and that is followed by a discussion of future prospects in satellite gravimetry based drought monitoring.

Rodell, Matthew↗

Forest expansion dominates China’s land carbon sink since 1980

Carbon budget accounting relies heavily on Food and Agriculture Organization land-use data reported by governments. Here we develop a new land-use and cover-change database for China, finding that differing historical survey methods biased China’s reported data causing large errors in Food and Agriculture Organization databases. Land ecosystem model simulations driven with the new data reveal a strong carbon sink of 8.9 ± 0.8 Pg carbon from 1980 to 2019 in China, which was not captured in Food and Agriculture Organization data-based estimations due to biased land-use and cover-change signals. The land-use and cover-change in China, characterized by a rapid forest expansion from 1980 to 2019, contributed to nearly 44% of the national terrestrial carbon sink. In contrast, climate changes (22.3%), increasing nitrogen deposition (12.9%), and rising carbon dioxide (8.1%) are less important contributors. This indicates that previous studies have greatly underestimated the impact of land-use and cover-change on the terrestrial carbon balance of China. This study underlines the importance of reliable land-use and cover-change databases in global carbon budget accounting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advances in POST2 End-to-End Descent and Landing Simulation for the ALHAT Project

Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) is used as a basis for an end-to-end descent and landing trajectory simulation that is essential in determining design and integration capability and system performance of the lunar descent and landing system and environment models for the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) project. The POST2 simulation provides a six degree-of-freedom capability necessary to test, design and operate a descent and landing system for successful lunar landing. This paper presents advances in the development and model-implementation of the POST2 simulation, as well as preliminary system performance analysis, used for the testing and evaluation of ALHAT project system models.

Davis, Jody L.↗

Assessment of the ParFlow–CLM CONUS 1.0 integrated hydrologic model: evaluation of hyper-resolution water balance components across the contiguous United States

Abstract. Recent advancements in computational efficiency and Earth system modeling have awarded hydrologists with increasingly high-resolution models of terrestrial hydrology, which are paramount to understanding and predicting complex fluxes of moisture and energy. Continental-scale hydrologic simulations are, in particular, of interest to the hydrologic community for numerous societal, scientific, and operational benefits. The coupled hydrology–land surface model ParFlow–CLM configured over the continental United States (PFCONUS) has been employed in previous literature to study scale-dependent connections between water table depth, topography, recharge, and evapotranspiration, as well as to explore impacts of anthropogenic aquifer depletion to the water and energy balance. These studies have allowed for an unprecedented process-based understanding of the continental water cycle at high resolution. Here, we provide the most comprehensive evaluation of PFCONUS version 1.0 (PFCONUSv1) performance to date by comparing numerous modeled water balance components with thousands of in situ observations and several remote sensing products and using a range of statistical performance metrics for evaluation. PFCONUSv1 comparisons with these datasets are a promising indicator of model fidelity and ability to reproduce the continental-scale water balance at high resolution. Areas for improvement are identified, such as a positive streamflow bias at gauges in the eastern Great Plains, a shallow water table bias over many areas of the model domain, and low bias in seasonal total water storage amplitude, especially for the Ohio, Missouri, and Arkansas River basins. We discuss several potential sources for model bias and suggest that minimizing error in topographic processing and meteorological forcing would considerably improve model performance. Results here provide a benchmark and guidance for further PFCONUS model development, and they highlight the importance of concurrently evaluating all hydrologic components and fluxes to provide a multivariate, holistic validation of the complete modeled water balance.

O'Neill, Mary M. F. (ORCID:0000000221455165)↗

A Comparison of FIFE Observation with GEOS Assimilated Data Including a Heterogeneous LSM

Several recent studies have shown that much can be learned by comparing grid-point data from a data assimilation system with in-situ observations from field experiments. While the surface heterogeneity is acknowledged in these studies, they lack quantitative representations of the influence of heterogeneity on the near-surface meteorology and surface hydrologic and energy balance. Here, we use the Betts and Ball FIFE site-averaged data. Standard deviations of the site-average will provide an estimate of the FIFE site heterogeneity. Recently, the Mosaic Land-Surface Model (LSM) has been incorporated into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The Mosaic LSM computes the surface energy and hydrologic balance for nine distinct surface types at each grid-point. Each surface type is proportionally weighted to determine the mean grid point properties. Hence, we can compare modeled and observed grid-point variability in addition to the mean properties. Also, assimilated data sets created with and without the LSM are compared. The results indicate the importance of including quantitative estimates of heterogeneity in the analysis of the land surface hydrology and energy balances in assimilation systems.

Bosilovich, M.↗

Validation of Land-Surface Mosaic Heterogeneity in the GEOS DAS

The Mosaic Land-surface Model (LSM) has been included into the current GEOS Data Assimilation System (DAS). The LSM uses a more advanced representation of physical processes than previous versions of the GEOS DAS, including the representation of sub-grid heterogeneity of the land-surface through the Mosaic approach. As a first approximation, Mosaic assumes that all similar surface types within a grid-cell can be lumped together as a single'tile'. Within one GCM grid-cell, there might be 1 - 5 different tiles or surface types. All tiles are subjected to the grid-scale forcing (radiation, air temperature and specific humidity, and precipitation), and the sub-grid variability is a function of the tile characteristics. In this paper, we validate the LSM sub-grid scale variability (tiles) using a variety of surface observing stations from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. One of the primary goals of SGP ARM is to study the variability of atmospheric radiation within a G,CM grid-cell. Enough surface data has been collected by ARM to extend this goal to sub-grid variability of the land-surface energy and water budgets. The time period of this study is the Summer of 1998 (June I - September 1). The ARM site data consists of surface meteorology, energy flux (eddy correlation and bowen ratio), soil water observations spread over an area similar to the size of a G-CM grid-cell. Various ARM stations are described as wheat and alfalfa crops, pasture and range land. The LSM tiles considered at the grid-space (2 x 2.5) nearest the ARM site include, grassland, deciduous forests, bare soil and dwarf trees. Surface energy and water balances for each tile type are compared with observations. Furthermore, we will discuss the land-surface sub-grid variability of both the ARM observations and the DAS.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Enabling NLDAS-2 Anomaly Analysis Using Giovanni

A newly implemented feature in Giovanni (GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Interface) allows users to explore and visualize anomaly data from the NLDAS-2 Primary Forcing and Noah model data sets. For a given measurement and location, an anomaly describes how conditions for a particular time period compare to normal conditions, based on long-term averages. Analyzing anomalies is important for monitoring droughts, determining weather trends, and studying land surface processes relevant for meteorology, hydrology, and climate. Using Giovanni to analyze anomalies for NLDAS-2 data allows for these studies to be efficiently conducted for the central North American region. Phase 2 of NLDAS (NLDAS-2) currently runs at an 1/8th degree resolution, in near-real time, with data sets extending back to January 1979. NLDAS-2 provides data for soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and other hydrology measurements. Hourly, monthly, and 30-year (1980-2009) monthly climatology data are available for several land surface models and forcing data sets. The Giovanni anomaly tool calculates monthly anomalies, for a given user-defined variable, as the difference between the NLDAS-2 monthly climatology data and the monthly data. The resulting anomaly describes how a chosen month compares to the 30-year monthly average. The presentation will demonstrate the capabilities and usefulness of Giovanni's anomaly tool, detail the recently added NLDAS-2 variables for which anomalies are available, and show how users can access the data.

drough↗

Land management and climate change determine second‐generation bioenergy potential of the US Northern Great Plains

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO2 concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.

climate change↗

Predictive Fallout Composition Modeling: Improvements and Applications of the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code

This paper outlines several improvements to the Particle Activity Module of the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC). The modeling of each phase of the fallout process is discussed within DELFIC to demonstrate the capabilities and limitations with the code for modeling and simulation. Expansion of the DELFIC isotopic library to include actinides and light elements is shown. Several key features of the new library are demonstrated, including compliance with ENDF/B-VII standards, augmentation of hardwired activated soil and actinide decay calculations with exact Bateman calculations, and full physical and chemical fractionation of all material inventories. Improvements to the radionuclide source term are demonstrated, including the ability to specify heterogeneous fission types and the ability to import source terms from irradiation calculations using the Oak Ridge Isotope Generation (ORIGEN) code. Additionally, the dose, kerma, and effective dose conversion factors are revised. Finally, the application of DELFIC for consequence management planning and forensic analysis is presented. For consequence management, DELFIC is shown to provide disaster recovery teams with simulations of real-time events, including the location, composition, time of arrival, activity rates, and dose rates of fallout, accounting for site-specific atmospheric effects. The results from DELFIC are also demonstrated for use by nuclear forensics teams to plan collection routes (including the determination of optimal collection locations), estimate dose rates to collectors, and anticipate the composition of material at collection sites. These capabilities give mission planners the ability to maximize their effectiveness in the field while minimizing risk to their collectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Best practices in software development for robust and reproducible geoscientific models based on insights from the Global Carbon Budget's dynamic vegetation models

Computational models play an increasingly vital role in scientific research by enabling the numerical simulation of complex processes. Such models are also fundamental in geosciences. For instance, they offer critical insights into the impacts of global change on the Earth system today and in the future. Beyond their value as research tools, models are also software products and should therefore adhere to certain established software engineering standards. However, scientists are rarely trained as software developers, which can lead to potential deficiencies in software quality like unreadable, inefficient, or erroneous code. The complexity of models, coupled with their integration into broader workflows, also often makes it challenging to reproduce results, evaluate processes, and build upon them. In this paper, we review the state and current practices of the development processes of the state-of-the-art land surface models used by the Global Carbon Budget. We combine the experience of modelers from the respective research groups with the expertise of software engineers from tech companies to outline key principles and tools for improving software quality in research. We explore four main areas: (1) model testing and validation, (2) scientific, technical, and user documentation, (3) version control, continuous integration, and code review, and (4) the portability and reproducibility of workflows. Our review reveals that while modeling communities are incorporating many best practices, significant room for improvement remains in areas such as automated testing, automated documentation, and reproducibility. Therefore, we here identify and promote essential software engineering practices, including numerous examples of practices from within the community that can serve as guidelines for other models and could help streamline processes across the entire community. We conclude with an open-source example implementation of these principles, demonstrating portable and reproducible data flows, a continuous integration setup, and web-based visualizations. This example may serve as a practical resource for model developers, users, and all scientists engaged in scientific programming.

Gregor, Konstantin [Technical Univ. of Munich (Ger↗

Mapping Arctic plant functional type distributions in the Barrow Environmental Observatory using WorldView-2 and LiDAR datasets

Multi-scale modeling of Arctic tundra vegetation requires characterization of the heterogeneous tundra landscape, which includes representation of distinct plant functional types (PFTs). We combined high-resolution multi-spectral remote sensing imagery from the WorldView-2 satellite with light detecting and ranging (LiDAR)-derived digital elevation models (DEM) to characterize the tundra landscape in and around the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), a 3021-hectare research reserve located at the northern edge of the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain. Vegetation surveys were conducted during the growing season (June August) of 2012 from 48 1 m 1 m plots in the study region for estimating the percent cover of PFTs (i.e., sedges, grasses, forbs, shrubs, lichens and mosses). Statistical relationships were developed between spectral and topographic remote sensing characteristics and PFT fractions at the vegetation plots from field surveys. These derived relationships were employed to statistically upscale PFT fractions for our study region of 586 hectares at 0.25-m resolution around the sampling areas within the BEO, which was bounded by the LiDAR footprint. We employed an unsupervised clustering for stratification of this polygonal tundra landscape and used the clusters for segregating the field data for our upscaling algorithm over our study region, which was an inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation. We describe two versions of PFT distribution maps upscaled by IDW from WorldView-2 imagery and LiDAR: (1) a version computed from a single image in the middle of the growing season; and (2) a version computed from multiple images through the growing season. This approach allowed us to quantify the value of phenology for improving PFT distribution estimates. We also evaluated the representativeness of the field surveys by measuring the Euclidean distance between every pixel. This guided the ground-truthing campaign in late July of 2014 for addressing uncertainty based on representativeness analysis by selecting 24 1 m 1 m plots that were well and poorly represented. Ground-truthing indicated that including phenology had a better accuracy (R 2 =0.75, RMSE=9.94) than the single image upscaling (R 2 =0.63 , RMSE=12.05) predicted from IDW. We also updated our upscaling approach to include the 24 ground-truthing plots, and a second ground-truthing campaign in late August of 2014 indicated a better accuracy for the phenology model (R 2 =0.61 , RMSE=13.78 ) than only using the original 48 plots for the phenology model (R 2 =0.23 , RMSE=17.49). After all, we believe that the cluster-based IDW upscaling approach and the representativeness analysis offer new insights for upscaling high-resolution data in fragmented landscapes. This analysis and approach provides PFT maps needed to inform land surface models in Arctic ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote sensing-based vegetation and soil moisture constraints reduce irrigation estimation uncertainty

Understanding the human water footprint and its impact on the hydrological cycle is essential to inform water management under climate change. Despite efforts in estimating irrigation water withdrawals in earth system models, uncertainties and discrepancies exist within and across modeling systems conditioned by model structure, irrigation parameterization, and the choice of input datasets. Achieving model reliability could be much more challenging for data-sparse regions, given limited access to ground truth for parameterization and validation. Here, we demonstrate the potential of utilizing remotely sensed vegetation and soil moisture observations in constraining irrigation estimation in the Noah-MP land surface model. Results indicate that the two constraints together can effectively reduce model sensitivity to the choice of irrigation parameterization by 7%–43%. It also improves the characterization of the spatial patterns of irrigation and its impact on evapotranspiration and surface soil moisture by correcting for vegetation conditions and irrigation timing. This study highlights the importance of utilizing remotely sensed soil moisture and vegetation measurements in detecting irrigation signals and correcting for vegetation growth. Integrating the two remote sensing datasets into the model provides an effective and less feature engineered approach to constraining the uncertainty of irrigation modeling. Such strategies can be potentially transferred to other modeling systems and applied to regions across the globe.

Wanshu Nie↗

Improving Surface Soil Moisture Estimates in West Africa Through GRACE Data Assimilation

Recent annual trends of precipitation and terrestrial water storage (TWS) in West Africa have been increasing over the past decade. Despite a significant impact of soil moisture on the TWS in West Africa, there is little research on the recent spatial and temporal behaviors of surface soil moisture (SSM) along with the hydrological trends and variability in West Africa. In this study, we assimilate TWS estimates from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission into the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) and evaluate its impacts on SSM simulations for the years, 2002–2017. The evaluation is performed using reference datasets: the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) in situ soil moisture observations, three currently available microwave satellite SSM observations from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellites and also the triple collocation analysis (TCA). Overall, modeled SSM shows good agreement with the reference datasets in terms of the anomaly SSM correlations. However, both modeled and ASCAT SSM are limited in their representation of the drying rates, as observed by ground observations, SMOS and SMAP estimates. Further, GRACE data assimilation results in improved SSM simulations in the humid regions with large annual TWS variability. This study demonstrates the utility of land data assimilation to inform hydrological conditions in West Africa, where soil moisture monitoring is necessary for water resource and livestock management.

West Africa↗

Groundwater Drought: Environmental Controls and Monitoring

Arising from a long-term deficit of precipitation, groundwater drought often lags meteorological drought by months to years, depending on climate and subsurface hydrogeological conditions. Due to the paucity of in situ groundwater data in many parts of the world, global monitoring of groundwater storage variations and drought may be best achieved using satellite observations and/or groundwater time series simulated by hydrological models. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow On (GRACE-FO) missions have greatly benefitted the modeling and monitoring of groundwater storage changes and drought at the global scale. In this chapter, we first review environmental controls on the temporal variability of groundwater using in situ data. We then describe an approach that infuses GRACE and GRACE-FO observations into a land surface model for assessing groundwater storage changes and drought globally. We also discuss characteristics of simulated groundwater drought and the limitations of current groundwater drought monitoring approaches.

Bailing Li↗