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DOE OSTI2021

Simulated aging processes of black carbon and its impact during a severe winter haze event in the Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region

Black carbon (BC) can mitigate or worsen air pollution through perturbing meteorological conditions. BC aging processes are important for the evolution of particle size, concentration, and optical properties of BC that determines its influence on the meteorology. Here we use the online coupled Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model to quantify the role of BC aging processes, including physical processes (PP) and absorption enhancements (AE), in exerting BC-induced meteorological changes and the associated feedback to PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter) and O3 concentrations during a severe haze event in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during 21-27 February 2014. Our results show that, compared to the simulation without the PP treatment, the simulated near-surface BC concentration and BC mass loading in BTH region is lowered by 6.6 % and 12.1 %, respectively, during the haze event with the PP included. PP increases the proportion of large-size BC (particle diameter greater than 0.312 µm) from 28 %-33 % to 59 %-64 % below 1000 m in BTH region. Both PP and AE enhance the “dome effect” of BC. With both PP and AE considered, a reduction in PBL height due to BC-PBL interaction is 116.3 m (20.7 %), compared to 75.7 m (13.5 %) without AE and 66.6 m (11.9 %) without both PP and AE. However, during this haze event, anomalous northeasterly winds are produced by the direct radiative effect of BC, which further affects the mixing and transport of aerosols. When PBL height is decreased (from 10:00 to 21:00), combining all the impacts on multiple meteorological factors, BC effect without PP and AE, without AE, and with PP and AE, respectively, increases surface concentrations of PM2.5 by 8.3 µg m-3 (6.1 % relative to the mean value), 6.1 µg m-3 (4.5 %) and 9.6 µg m-3 (7.0 %) but decreases surface O3 concentrations by 2.8 ppbv (7.4 %), 4.0 ppbv (9.0 %) and 5.0 ppbv (10.8 %) in BTH region averaged over 21-27 February 2014. Our results highlight the importance of the aging processes and absorption enhancements of BC in simulating weather and air quality.

Chen, Donglin↗

DOE OSTI2017

Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Winds

Hurricane Patricia in 2015 was the strongest Pacific hurricane to make landfall in Mexico. Although Patricia fortuitously spared major cities, it reminded us of the threat tropical cyclones (TCs) pose in the eastern North Pacific (ENP) and the importance of improving our understanding and prediction of ENP TCs. Patricia’s intensity and the active 2015 ENP hurricane season have been partially attributed to the strong El Niño in 2015, however there is still a lack of fundamental understanding of the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENP TCs. Here, we demonstrate that ENSO drives intrabasin variability of ENP TCs, with enhanced (reduced) TC frequency in the western portion of the ENP during El Niño (La Niña), but reduced (enhanced) TC frequency in the eastern nearshore area, where landfalling TCs preferentially form. This intrabasin difference is primarily driven by the Central American Gap Winds (CAGW), which intensify (weaken) during El Niño (La Niña), producing low-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) relative vorticity anomalies and thus an unfavorable (favorable) environment for TC genesis. These findings shed new light on the dynamics linking ENP TC activity to ENSO, and highlight the importance of improving CAGW representation in models to make skillful seasonal forecasts of ENP TCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fringing Analysis and Simulation for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time

Abstract The presence of fringing in astronomical Charge-Coupled Device (CCD) images will have an impact on photometric quality and measurements. Yet its impact on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) has not been fully studied. We present a detailed study on fringing for CCDs already implemented on the Rubin Observatory LSST Camera’s focal plane. After making physical measurements and knowing the compositions, we developed a model for the e2v CCDs. We present a method to fit for the internal height variation of the epoxy layer within the sensors based on fringing measurements in a laboratory setting. This method is generic enough that it can be easily modified to work for other CCDs. Using the derived fringing model, we successfully reproduce comparable fringing amplitudes that match the observed levels in images taken by existing telescopes with different optical designs. This model is then used to forecast the expected level of fringing in a single LSST y -band sky background exposure with Rubin telescope optics in the presence of a realistic time-varying sky spectrum. The predicted fringing amplitude in LSST images ranges from 0.04% to 0.2% depending on the location of a CCD on the focal plane. We find that the predicted variation in surface brightness caused by fringing in LSST y -band sky background images is about 0.6 μ Jy arcsec − 2 , which is 40 times larger than the current measurement error. We conclude that it is necessary to include fringing correction in the Rubin’s LSST image processing pipeline.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2011

Optimal constraints on local primordial non-Gaussianity from the two-point statistics of large-scale structure

One of the main signatures of primordial non-Gaussianity of the local type is a scale-dependent correction to the bias of large-scale structure tracers such as galaxies or clusters, whose amplitude depends on the bias of the tracers itself. The dominant source of noise in the power spectrum of the tracers is caused by sampling variance on large scales (where the non-Gaussian signal is strongest) and shot noise arising from their discrete nature. Recent work has argued that one can avoid sampling variance by comparing multiple tracers of different bias, and suppress shot noise by optimally weighting halos of different mass. Here we combine these ideas and investigate how well the signatures of non-Gaussian fluctuations in the primordial potential can be extracted from the two-point correlations of halos and dark matter. On the basis of large N-body simulations with local non-Gaussian initial conditions and their halo catalogs we perform a Fisher matrix analysis of the two-point statistics. Compared to the standard analysis, optimal weighting and multiple-tracer techniques applied to halos can yield up to 1 order of magnitude improvements in f{sub NL}-constraints, even if the underlying dark matter density field is not known. In this case one needs to resolve all halos down to 10{sup 10}h{sup -1}M{sub sun} at z=0, while with the dark matter this is already achieved at a mass threshold of 10{sup 12}h{sup -1}M{sub sun}. We compare our numerical results to the halo model and find satisfactory agreement. Forecasting the optimal f{sub NL}-constraints that can be achieved with our methods when applied to existing and future survey data, we find that a survey of 50h{sup -3} Gpc{sup 3} volume resolving all halos down to 10{sup 11}h{sup -1}M{sub sun} at z=1 will be able to obtain {sigma}{sub f{sub N{sub L}}}{approx}1 (68% cl), a factor of {approx}20 improvement over the current limits. Decreasing the minimum mass of resolved halos, increasing the survey volume or obtaining the dark matter maps can further improve these limits, potentially reaching the level of {sigma}{sub f{sub N{sub L}}}{approx}0.1. This precision opens up the possibility to distinguish different types of primordial non-Gaussianity and to probe inflationary physics of the very early Universe.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty-Informed Operation Coordination in a Water-Energy Nexus

The widespread deployment of smart heterogeneous technologies and the growing complexity in our modern society calls for effective coordination of the interdependent lifeline networks. In particular, operation coordination of electric power and water infrastructures is urgently needed as the water system is one of the most energy-intensive networks, an interruption in which may quickly evolve into a dramatic societal concern. This paper develops a novel analytic for uncertainty-aware day-ahead operation optimization of the interconnected power and water systems (PaWS). Joint probabilistic constraint (JPC) programming is employed to capture the uncertainties in wind resources and water demand forecasts. The proposed integrated stochastic model is presented as a non-linear non-convex optimization problem, where the non-linear hydraulic constraints in the water network are linearized using piece-wise linearization technique, and the non-convexity is efficiently tackled with a solution methodology to convert the proposed model with JPCs to a tractable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation that can be quickly solved to optimality. Here, the suggested framework is applied to a 15-node commercial-scale water network jointly operated with a power transmission system using a modified IEEE 57-bus test system. The numerical results demonstrate the of the proposed stochastic framework, resulting in cost reduction (13% on average when compared to the traditional setting) and energy saving of the integrated model under different realizations of uncertain renewable energy sources (RESs) and water demand scenarios. Additionally, the scalability of the proposed model is tested on a modified IEEE 118-bus test system connected to five water networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2016

Bidding strategy for microgrid in day-ahead market based on hybrid stochastic/robust optimization

In this paper, we propose an optimal bidding strategy in the day-ahead market of a microgrid consisting of intermittent distributed generation (DG), storage, dispatchable DG and price responsive loads. The microgrid coordinates the energy consumption or production of its components and trades electricity in both the day-ahead and real-time markets to minimize its operating cost as a single entity. The bidding problem is challenging due to a variety of uncertainties, including power output of intermittent DG, load variation, day-ahead and real-time market prices. A hybrid stochastic/robust optimization model is proposed to minimize the expected net cost, i.e., expected total cost of operation minus total benefit of demand. This formulation can be solved by mixed integer linear programming. The uncertain output of intermittent DG and day-ahead market price are modeled via scenarios based on forecast results, while a robust optimization is proposed to limit the unbalanced power in real-time market taking account of the uncertainty of real-time market price. Numerical simulations on a microgrid consisting of a wind turbine, a PV panel, a fuel cell, a micro-turbine, a diesel generator, a battery and a responsive load show the advantage of stochastic optimization in addition to robust optimization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning Image Segmentation for Atmospheric Rivers

Abstract The identification of atmospheric rivers (ARs) is crucial for weather and climate predictions as they are often associated with severe storm systems and extreme precipitation, which can cause large impacts on society. This study presents a deep learning model, termed ARDetect, for image segmentation of ARs using ERA5 data from 1960 to 2020 with labels obtained from the TempestExtremes tracking algorithm. ARDetect is a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based U-Net model, with its structure having been optimized using automatic hyperparameter tuning. Inputs to ARDetect were selected to be the integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and total column water (TCW) fields, as well as the AR mask from TempestExtremes from the previous time step to the one being considered. ARDetect achieved a mean intersection-over-union (mIoU) rate of 89.04% for ARs, indicating its high accuracy in identifying these weather patterns and a superior performance than most deep learning–based models for AR detection. In addition, ARDetect can be executed faster than the TempestExtremes method (seconds vs minutes) for the same period. This provides a significant benefit for online AR detection, especially for high-resolution global models. An ensemble of 10 models, each trained on the same dataset but having different starting weights, was used to further improve on the performance produced by ARDetect, thus demonstrating the importance of model diversity in improving performance. ARDetect provides an effective and fast deep learning–based model for researchers and weather forecasters to better detect and understand ARs, which have significant impacts on weather-related events such as floods and droughts.

Galea, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Methodology for Estimating the Energy and Moisture Budget of the Convective Boundary Layer Using Continuous Ground-Based Infrared Spectrometer Observations

Abstract Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in both the atmospheric water and energy cycles. Changes in soil moisture and vegetation alter the partitioning of surface water and energy fluxes, influencing diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The mixing-diagram framework has proven useful in understanding the evolution of the heat and moisture budget within the convective boundary layer (CBL). We demonstrate that observations from the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site provide all of the needed inputs needed for the mixing-diagram framework, allowing us to quantify the impact from the surface fluxes, advection, radiative heating, encroachment, and entrainment on the evolution of the CBL. Profiles of temperature and humidity retrieved from the ground-based infrared spectrometer [Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI)] are a critical component in this analysis. Large-eddy simulation results demonstrate that mean mixed-layer values derived are shown to be critical to close the energy and moisture budgets. A novel approach demonstrated here is the use of network of AERIs and Doppler lidars to quantify the advective fluxes of heat and moisture. The framework enables the estimation of the entrainment fluxes as a residual, providing a way to observe the entrainment fluxes without using multiple lidar systems. The high temporal resolution of the AERI observations enables the morning, midday, and afternoon evolution of the CBL to be quantified. This work provides a new way to use observations in this framework to evaluate weather and climate models. Significance Statement The energy and moisture budget of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is influenced by multiple sources, and accurately representing this evolution in numerical models is critical for weather forecasts and climate predictions. The mixing-diagram approach, driven by profiling observations as illustrated here, provides a powerful way to quantify the contributions from each of these sources. In particular, the energy and moisture mixed into the PBL from above the PBL can be determined accurately from ground-based remote sensors using this approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radiosonde Observations of Environments Supporting Deep Moist Convection Initiation during RELAMPAGO-CACTI

The Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) and Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) projects deployed a high-spatiotemporal-resolution radiosonde network to examine environments supporting deep convection in the complex terrain of central Argentina. This study aims to characterize atmospheric profiles most representative of the near-cloud environment (in time and space) to identify the mesoscale ingredients affecting storm initiation and growth. Spatiotemporal autocorrelation analysis of the soundings reveals that there is considerable environmental heterogeneity, with boundary layer thermodynamic and kinematic fields becoming statistically uncorrelated on scales of 1–2 h and 30 km. Using this as guidance, we examine a variety of environmental parameters derived from soundings collected within close proximity (30 km in space and 30 min in time) of 44 events over 9 days where the atmosphere either: 1) supported the initiation of sustained precipitating convection, 2) yielded weak and short-lived precipitating convection, or 3) produced no precipitating convection in disagreement with numerical forecasts from convection-allowing models (i.e., Null events). There are large statistical differences between the Null event environments and those supporting any convective precipitation. Null event profiles contained larger convective available potential energy, but had low free-tropospheric relative humidity, higher freezing levels, and evidence of limited horizontal convergence near the terrain at low levels that likely suppressed deep convective growth. Here, we also present evidence from the radiosonde and satellite measurements that flow–terrain interactions may yield gravity wave activity that affects CI outcome.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

2001 Atlanta Household Travel Survey

The 2001 Atlanta Household Travel Survey collected demographic, socioeconomic, and travel information on work and non-work travel behavior for a 48-hour travel period. The study was conducted on behalf of the Atlanta Regional Commission, and it is an essential element in the transportation planning and modeling efforts for the 13-county Atlanta region. The main objective of the study was to produce data that could be used to develop and calibrate travel demand models for use in travel forecasting, land use planning, and air quality planning to improve the transportation system. The second component in the survey was the deployment of an electronic travel diary with person-based GPS and an accelerometer to collect health and activity information. Travel data includes trip generation, trip distribution, and modal choice. The survey recruited a total of 12,184 households to participate in the study. Of these, 8,069 households (66%) completed travel. The 8,069 households, when weighted, represent 21,323 persons, 14,449 vehicles, and 126,127 places visited from April 2001 through April 2002. This dataset is part of the Metropolitan Travel Survey Archive, which includes travel surveys from numerous public agencies across the United States and is archived by the Transportation Secure Data Center to ensure their continued public availability.

1Hz data↗

DOE OSTI2026

2002 Maricopa Regional Household Travel Survey

The Maricopa Regional Household Travel Survey was conducted by NuStats from February through December 2001 under the auspices of the Maricopa Association of Governments. The purpose of the survey was to obtain information related to travel behavior. The study objective was to produce data that could be used to develop and calibrate travel demand models for use in travel forecasting and air quality planning. A total of 5,478 households were recruited to participate in the study, and travel information was gathered from all household members regardless of age in Maricopa County and a small portion of Pinal County. Of these, 4,018 households (73%) completed travel diaries, representing 10,030 people, 6,589 vehicles, and 78,511 places visited during the 48-hour travel period.

1Hz data↗

DOE OSTI2015

Overview and Meteorological Validation of the Wind Integration National Dataset toolkit

The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this report fulfills these requirements, and constitutes a state-of-the-art national wind resource data set covering the contiguous United States from 2007 to 2013 for use in a variety of next-generation wind integration analyses and wind power planning. The toolkit is a wind resource data set, wind forecast data set, and wind power production and forecast data set derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. WIND Toolkit data are available online for over 116,000 land-based and 10,000 offshore sites representing existing and potential wind facilities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Completion Report for Well ER-2-2 Corrective Action Unit 97: Yucca Flat/Climax Mine

Well ER-2-2 was drilled for the U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada National Security Administration Nevada Field Office in support of the Underground Test Area (UGTA) Activity. The well was drilled from January 17 to February 8, 2016, as part of the Corrective Action Investigation Plan (CAIP) for Corrective Action Unit 97: Yucca Flat/Climax Mine, Nevada Test Site, Nevada. The primary purpose of the well was to collect hydrogeologic data to evaluate uncertainty in the flow and transport conceptual model and its contamination boundary forecasts, and to detect radionuclides in groundwater from the CALABASH (U2av) underground test. Well ER-2-2 was not completed as planned due to borehole stability problems. As completed, the well includes a piezometer (p1) to 582 meters (m) (1,909 feet [ft]) below ground surface (bgs) installed in the Timber Mountain lower vitric-tuff aquifer (TMLVTA) and a 12.25-inch (in.) diameter open borehole to 836 m (2,743 ft) bgs in the Lower tuff confining unit (LTCU). A 13.375-in. diameter carbon-steel casing is installed from the surface to a depth of 607 m (1,990 ft) bgs. Data collected during borehole construction include composite drill cutting samples collected every 3.0 m (10 ft), geophysical logs to a depth of 672.4 m (2,206 ft) bgs, water-quality measurements (including tritium), water-level measurements, and slug test data. The well penetrated 384.05 m (1,260 ft) of Quaternary alluvium, 541.93 m (1,778 ft) of Tertiary Volcanics (Tv) rocks, and 127.71 m (419 ft) of Paleozoic carbonates. The stratigraphy and lithology were generally as expected. However, several of the stratigraphic units were significantly thicker then predicted—principally, the Tunnel formation (Tn), which had been predicted to be 30 m (100 ft) thick; the actual thickness of this unit was 268.22 m (880 ft). Fluid depths were measured in the borehole during drilling as follows: (1) in the piezometer (p1) at 552.15 m (1,811.53 ft) bgs and (2) in the main casing (m1) at 551.69 m (1,810.01 ft) bgs. As expected, field measurements for tritium were above the Safe Drinking Water Act limit (20,000 picocuries per liter). All Fluid Management Plan requirements were met.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Completion Report for Well ER-2-2 Corrective Action Unit 97: Yucca Flat/Climax Mine, Revision 1

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Profiling at Oliktok Point to Enhance Year of Polar Prediction Experiments (POPEYE) Science Plan

The arctic region is rapidly evolving, and enhanced predictive capabilities, for both weather and climate, are urgently required. Therefore, the international community has formulated plans for the execution of an extended period of focused observations and modeling of the arctic environment, dubbed the “Year of Polar Prediction” or YOPP. The YOPP will feature “special observing periods” (SOPs), with the first occurring in the spring of 2018, and a second during the late summer and early fall. This project deploys additional U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility resources to Oliktok Point, Alaska during the second three-month special observing period (1 July 2018-30 September 2018). These resources include additional radiosondes (1 more per day), ARM-operated unmanned aircraft (DH2) and ARM-operated tethered balloon systems (TBS). These instruments will conduct routine profiling activities over the course of the SOP to obtain measurements of atmospheric thermodynamic structure, cloud and precipitation properties, and aerosol properties, enhancing the measurements obtained from the third ARM Mobile Facility at Oliktok Point (AMF3). We anticipate that these measurements will be used for a variety of purposes, including: 1) to conduct detailed studies of arctic cloud and aerosol processes; 2) to inform YOPP modeling efforts through real-time availability for assimilation into operational and research analysis products; 3) to evaluate and improve retrieval algorithms involving ARM remote sensors; 4) to evaluate and improve a variety of modeling tools being used to forecast arctic weather and climate; and 5) to initialize and evaluate simulations associated with a potential arctic large-eddy simulation (LES) framework similar to the ongoing LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) project.

Arctic processes, Oliktok Point, Year of Polar Pre↗

DOE OSTI2023

First Ever Field Pilot on Alaska's North Slope to Validate the Use of Polymer Floods for Heavy Oil EOR a.k.a Alaska North Slope Field Laboratory (ANSFL)

Alaska’s high viscosity oil resources that range between 20–30+ billion barrels represent about a third of known North Slope original oil in place (OOIP). These resources are primarily concentrated in the Schrader Bluff formation (also called West Sak on the Western North Slope) and Ugnu reservoirs and are categorized as “viscous oils” and “heavy oils” owing to their in-situ viscosities between 5–10,000 cP and up to a million+ cP respectively. The viscous oil deposits are relatively deeper (2,000 – 5,000 ft), whereas the heavy oils are somewhat shallower (2,000 – 4,000 ft). The typically shallow depths and the proximity to the continuous permafrost results in relatively lower formation temperatures and pressures, and consequently higher viscosities. The vertical depth vs. viscosity delineated in Paskvan et al. (2016) differentiates the viscous and heavy oils. As depicted in Paskvan et al. (2016), currently the main focus (referred to as “developing”) is on the viscous oils in the Schrader Bluff formation in the Milne Point Unit (MPU). Notwithstanding this Alaska North Slope (ANS) specific categorization, we use the industry adopted, all-inclusive term “heavy oil” for all high viscosity oils. Resource characterization and additional details can be found in topical publications of Paskvan et al. (2016) and Targac et al. (2005). Despite the vast resource base, the development pace, vis-à-vis the production of heavy oils has been very slow and limited due to multiple factors such as cost, logistics, challenging arctic environment, poor waterflood sweep efficiency due to mobility contrasts, and significantly high minimum miscibility pressures (MMP). Most importantly, typical or standard thermal methods that are commonplace elsewhere (Canada, California) are inapplicable due to the continuous permafrost. As a consequence, cumulative production of heavy and viscous oils is a little over 1% of OOIP slope wide and currently, there is hardly any production from Ugnu. However, on a broader level, these unfavorable factors are outweighed by the fact that (1) these resources, within the established infrastructure, are too large to ignore because of their strategic importance to the Nation and the State of Alaska and (2) Prudhoe Bay type diluent crude oil is still available for heavy oil transport through the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). Similarly, from a reservoir standpoint, the following factors also are important offsets: (1) favorable rock characteristics of Schrader Bluff; (2) the promise demonstrated by the initial scoping studies (Seright 2010, 2011) suggesting significant increase of heavy oil recovery using polymer flooding; (3) successful field implementation in Canada, China and elsewhere in the world, and (4) availability of the existing pairs of horizontal injector-producer in Schrader Bluff The foregoing was recognized as the best readily available opportunity for significant investment by the US Department of Energy and the field operator Hilcorp Alaska LLC to conduct the first ever field scale experiment to test the polymer flooding technology to unlock the vast heavy oil resources on ANS. With this primary goal in mind, the research team embarked on a ~4.5 years long project that focused on the field polymer pilot complemented by supporting laboratory and simulation studies. As documented in this final report, over the course of the project, many lessons have been learned and valuable field and supporting laboratory data has been collected, which also is complemented by numerical reservoir simulations. We have been able to establish the injectivity of polymer solution, evidence of significant reduction in the water cut of previously waterflooded pattern, effective propagation of a hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM), benefits of low salinity water, provide practical guidance on handling of produced fluids containing breakthrough polymer, fit-for-purpose forecast-worthy history matched simulation model, polymer EOR benefit of 700-1000 bopd over waterflood, and most importantly a low polymer utilization factor of ~1.7 lb/stb. In summary this project is deemed as a scientific, technical and economic success, having met all objectives, fulfilled deliverables and within budget, providing impetus to apply polymer EOR throughout the Milne Point Field paving the way for even heavier viscosity oils in the Ugnu area, eventually extending the economic life of TAPS.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grid Resilience to Extreme Events – Connecting Science to Investments and Policy

A workshop co-hosted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Seattle City Light was held at the Seattle Municipal Tower on November 8–10, 2022. Participants from research organizations, utilities, professional associations, consultants, and government organizations attended. The purpose of the workshop was to develop a vision for addressing climate extremes that include improving forecasting and characterization, infrastructure resilience modeling, and investment planning and decision support. The workshop also aimed to provide a platform for sharing approaches and information and identifying possible collaborations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States

Major droughts in the United States have heavily impacted the hydrologic system, negatively effecting energy and food production. Improved understanding of historical drought is critical for accurate forecasts. Data from global climate models (GCMs), commonly used to assess drought, cannot effectively evaluate local patterns because of their low spatial scale. This research leverages downscaled (~4 km grid spacing) temperature and precipitation estimates from nine GCMs’ data under the business-as-usual scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) to examine drought patterns. Drought severity is estimated using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with the Thornthwaite evapotranspiration method. The specific objectives were (1) To reproduce historical (1966–2005) drought and calculate near-term to future (2011–2050) drought patterns over the conterminous USA. (2) To uncover the local variability of spatial drought patterns in California between 2012 and 2018 using a network-based approach. Our estimates of land proportions affected by drought agree with the known historical drought events of the mid-1960s, late 1970s to early 1980s, early 2000s, and between 2012 and 2015. Network analysis showed heterogeneity in spatial drought patterns in California, indicating local variability of drought occurrence. The high spatial scale at which the analysis was performed allowed us to uncover significant local differences in drought patterns. This is critical for highlighting possible weak systems that could inform adaptation strategies such as in the energy and agricultural sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗