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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

PR100: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy: Preventing and Responding to Extreme Events

This presentation discusses the aftermath of Hurricane Maria's landfall in Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017. Maria incapacitated Puerto Rico's power systems, leaving the entire island without electricity and access to fresh water. Some parts are still recovering years later. A resilient electric grid is vital to Puerto Rico's security, economy, and way of life.

demand impacts↗
DOE OSTI2024

Research Highlight - Dispatch Optimization, System Design and Cost Benefit Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor with Molten Salt Thermal Storage

We highlight our work from our previous publication titled "Dispatch Optimization, System Design, and Cost Benefit Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor with Molten Salt Thermal Storage" published in MDPI Energies 2022 (doi.org/10.3390/en15103599). Variable renewable energy availability has increased the volatility in energy prices in most markets. Nuclear power plants, with a large ratio of capital to variable costs, have historically operated as base load energy suppliers but the need for more flexible operation is increasing. We simulate the techno-economic performance of a 950 MWt nuclear power plant, based on the Westinghouse lead-cooled fast reactor, coupled with molten salt thermal storage as a method for flexible energy dispatch. We use the System Advisor Model to model the nuclear reactor thermal power input and power cycle operating modes. We combine this robust engineering model with a mixed-integer linear program model for optimized dispatch scheduling. We then simulate the coupled nuclear and thermal storage system under different market scenarios with varying price volatility. We find that the coupled plant outperforms the base plant under markets where energy price peaks fluctuate by a factor of two or more about the mean price. We show that a calculated power purchase agreement price for the plant improves by up to 10% when operating under California energy market conditions. Sensitivity analysis on the thermal storage cost shows that the optimal design remains unchanged even when doubling costs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of New Reactor Core Configuration for Power Uprate - Fuel Reload & Heat Processing Analyses, Core Design, System Safety Assessments, and Fuel Performance Analyses

With the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, the United States stands at a critical juncture for the future of nuclear power. These landmark policies provide significant support for clean energy initiatives, positioning nuclear power as a key component of the nation’s strategy to reduce carbon emissions and achieve energy security. This growing emphasis on nuclear energy is driven by the need for reliable, low-carbon power sources as the country transitions away from fossil fuels. Federal policy, along with increasing state-level support, is encouraging investment in nuclear technology advancements to meet these demands. Building new nuclear power plants (NPPs), however, presents significant challenges due to high costs and long construction timelines. As a result, increasing the power output of existing NPPs through power uprates has emerged as a more feasible and cost-effective strategy. One key area of advancement is the development of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), such as chromium-coated zirconium alloy cladding, which offers enhanced material performance, enabling power uprates in light water reactors (LWRs). Given the growing demand for nuclear energy fueled by federal policies and state initiatives, it is essential to evaluate the feasibility and benefits of significant power uprates in existing pressurized water reactors (PWRs) using advanced fuel technologies. The introduction of ATF concepts opens new opportunities for safely and economically achieving these power increases. Assessing whether these innovations can support substantial power uprates while maintaining operational safety is crucial to maximizing the potential of the nation’s existing nuclear infrastructure. This project aims to explore how power uprates can be achieved by boosting reactor thermal power output and optimizing reactor core design, while ensuring the safety and economic viability of NPPs. Specifically, it will focus on demonstrating the technical and economic feasibility of power uprates in a PWR using low 5-10% enrichment uranium (LEU+) high burnup (HBU) fuel combined with ATF concepts. In fiscal year 2024 (FY24), the research and development focus on building foundational models and conducting multi-physics performance and safety analyses to support the power uprate. The findings of the study would be shared through LWRS Seasonal Meetings, conferences and workshops with utility companies and researchers. These also serve as a basis for further study of fuel reloading optimization with ATF claddings.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recent Advancements and Prospects of Chemical Heat Pumps for Temperature Amplification for Nuclear Process Heat Applications

The energy economy is continually evolving, particularly in terms of primary energy sources, their conversions to useful forms such as electricity and heat, and their utilization in different sectors, in response to socio-political factors. Because nuclear energy source is a clean and non-carbon-emitting energy source, it is crucial to consider its role in the evolution of the energy economy. Integrated Energy Systems (IES) are collaboratively controlled systems that can dynamically apportion thermal and/or electrical energy to promote the production of various energy products and have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, improve energy efficiency, improve electrical grid dependability, and enhance energy economics. To realize the benefits of IES with the current reactor fleets, selection and development of a complimentary temperature upgrading technology are necessary for providing process heat and improving economics.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Water and Climate Impacts on ERCOT Long-Term Systems Assessment

Water and climate change pose many potential challenges to the electric power system. Substantial water is withdrawn every day to support thermoelectric power generating unit operations, and changes to water supply have the potential to affect generation dispatch. Climate change can accelerate growing demand for electricity, which can necessitate additional generating capacity, often in locations with limited water supply. Drought conditions also threaten thermoelectric power plant operations due to streamflow and reservoir levels dropping below intake structures, or water temperatures exceeding a power plants' permitted operating conditions. Here we explore how future climate change might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) using a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on the future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation for four future climate projections. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated for these scenarios. These climate impacts are applied to five alternative electricity futures in an electricity capacity expansion model that projects future generation and transmission capacity additions in ERCOT. Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on future generation and transmission capacity needs, with temperature-driven increases in peak and average load resulting in 5-15 GW additional generating capacity and up to 1 GW additional transmission capacity. Additional capacity is a diverse mix of PV, natural gas, and wind, depending on the makeup of economic, policy and technology assumptions. Climate impacts increase total system costs 2-5%, while the marginal cost of energy and emissions are not affected substantially by climate change effects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Framework for optimization of long-term, multi-period investment planning of integrated urban energy systems

In order to achieve stringent greenhouse gas emission reductions, a transition of our entire energy system from fossil to renewable resources needs to be designed. Such an energy transition brings two main challenges: most renewables generate variable electric energy, yet most demand is currently not electric (carrier mismatch) and does not always manifest at the same time as supply (temporal mismatch). Integrating multiple energy infrastructures can address both challenges by using the synergy between different energy carriers; building on existing infrastructure, while allowing a robust and flexible integration of the new. This paper proposes an optimization framework for long-term, multi-period investment planning of urban energy systems in an integrated manner. We formulate it as a mixed-integer linear program, combining a capacitated facility location with a multi-dimensional, capacitated network design problem. It includes generation and network expansion planning as well as interconnections between networks and storage infrastructure for each energy system. It can incorporate pathway effects like techno-economic developments, policy measures, and weather variations. The intended use is to support urban decision makers with long-term investment planning, though it can be tailored to fit other geographical or temporal scales. We demonstrate the model using two cases based on an average city in The Netherlands, which wants to reduce its CO 2 -emissions with 95% by 2050. In the first case, we include explicit carbon-emission constraints to study the effects of the carrier mismatch. In the second case, we implement interannual weather variations to analyze the temporal mismatch. The results give valuable insights into the energy transition design strategy for urban decision makers. They also show the future potential, as well as the computational challenges of the optimization framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Flexible Fully-Decoupled Nuclear Plants with Thermal Energy Storage - Technoeconomic Optimization

New nuclear power plants may be one of the technologies for future zero carbon electricity production. These future systems will however also need significant flexibility to cope with fluctuating demand and large share of intermittent renewable supply, rather than running in conventional baseload generation. The present work explores the use of thermal energy storage (TES) as a buffer between the reactor heat and its conversion to electricity, enabling flexible operation of nuclear plants. The focus is on maximizing flexibility, ideally as full decoupling of the nuclear and power cycle islands, as well as on system efficiency in various modes. A system design presented for a high temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR) presents a slightly complex solution, as separate high- and low-temperature TES systems are required in order to cover the extended temperature range. Although this configuration imposes certain limitations on the discharge system configuration, it also presents the opportunity to design a more efficient system. For this case in particular, a steam reheat cycle is advantageous. Dynamic models were developed for the decoupled system in order to generate insights into aspects of off design operation and system control. A technoeconomic analysis, furthermore, provides sizing and costing of the component, followed by size and dispatch economic optimization considering energy arbitrage. This optimization shows that in all explored markets, the addition of TES system with the proposed configuration results in positive impact on project net present value. Further sensitivity analyses show impact of multiple inputs and possible technical limitations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ecological Quality Evolution and Its Driving Factors in Yunnan Karst Rocky Desertification Areas

Rocky desertification is a key element affecting regional ecological quality. Rocky desertification in Southwest China directly affects the ecological security of the Yangtze River and Pearl River basins and also restricts regional economic and social development. In order to clarify the evolution laws and key influencing factors of ecological quality in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas, a quantitative analysis based on the remote sensing-based ecological index (RSEI) model was conducted to explore the overall evolution characteristics and change laws of ecological quality in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas in the past 30 years. The correlation between RSEI, rock outcrop rate (Fr), and driving factors was determined by redundancy analysis. The results showed the following: (1) RSEI in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas generally showed a decreasing trend, with a fluctuation in the mid-term, followed by a tendency to recover. It fell into three stages: decline, trough, and recovery, with fitting coefficients of -0.121, -0.057, and 0.157, respectively. In contrast, Fr showed an opposite tendency, illustrating the inverse relationship between RSEI and Fr, and the rate of sequential succession was much faster than that of the reverse succession under human measures of intervention. (2) The mean value of RSEI of Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas was generally lower than that of the total Yunnan Province land areas and Yunnan non-karst rocky desertification areas, but the mean value of Fr was generally more than that of both the above-mentioned areas. In addition, the RSEI and Fr of Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas both showed lower stability values than those of both the above-mentioned areas. This generally suggested a low ecological quality and a high degree of desertification under a low stability in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas. (3) The correlation of RSEI and Fr with driving factors followed the order of topographic factors, soil factors > water factors > anthropogenic factors. Anthropogenic factors were the driving force changing the state of rocky desertification, geological factors such as topography and soil to a larger extent determined the original macroscopic ecological relationship of rocky desertification, and water factors lay between the above two. The findings of this research will provide theoretical support and a basis for the improvement of ecological quality and comprehensive control of karst rocky desertification in Yunnan Province.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feedstock to Function (F2F) v1

The Feedstock to Function (F2F) tool was designed to help scientists and companies explore viable biofuels and bioproducts early in the R&D cycle to support more productive experimentation, while reducing early-stage exploration from months/years to days/weeks (feedstock-to-function.lbl.gov). The tool focuses on using machine learning to predict biomass-derived molecule properties, while evaluating the cost, benefits, and risks of promising molecules for sustainable aviation fuels. The tool successfully predicts (within 15% of experimental values) high-throughput aviation properties for over 10,000 molecules while enabling users to explore new possibilities and opportunities rapidly and effortlessly. It also links to lightweight life-cycle analysis and techno-economic tools for cost and emissions analyses. Predicted molecule properties include melting point, boiling point, flash point, yield sooting index, and heat of combustion. To date, F2F is more expansive and outperforms several other molecule property prediction models while enabling users (scientists, companies, and policy makers) to explore new possibilities and opportunities rapidly and effortlessly. F2F provides the foundation for developing an adaptive computational tool that predicts properties, cost, benefits, and risk of promising new and uncertified alternative jet fuel pathways and their blending effects.

Rapp, Vi↗
DOE OSTI2021

Substation-Level Grid Topology Optimization Using Bus Splitting: Preprint

Operations of substation circuit breakers are of high significance for performing system maintenance and topology optimization. Bus splitting is one type of topology changes where the two bus-bars at a substation become electrically disconnected after certain actions of circuit breakers. As these events involve detailed substation modeling, they are not typically considered in power system routine operation and control. In this paper, an improved substation-level topology optimization is developed by expanding traditional line switching with breaker-level bus splitting, which can further reduce grid congestion and generation costs. A tight McCormick relaxation is proposed to reformulate the bi-linear terms in the resultant topology optimization model. Thus, a tractable mixed-integer linear program formulation is presented which can be efficiently solved for real-time control. Numerical studies on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems demonstrate the performance and economic benefits of the proposed topology optimization approach.

bus split↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated Operations for Nuclear: Work Reduction Opportunity Demonstration

Integrated Operations for Nuclear: Work Reduction Opportunity Demonstration The DI BCA document also identifies specific, digitally enabled WRO categories for further study. These were selected as most relevant by Reference Plant personnel from a larger list of WRO areas identified across the nuclear industry as captured INL/RPT-21-64134, “Process for Significant Nuclear Work Function Innovation Based on Integrated Operations Concepts.” This ION WRO demonstration report was developed to provide illustrative, specific, and actionable direction for intertwined PTPG changes associated with digital modernization efforts. The coordinated changes in these areas are intended to maximize safe plant operational and economic performance. This includes enabling WROs associated with detailed configuration, implementation, and use of digital systems and how they are supported over their lifecycle. Illustrating this direction through a minimum set of advanced technology examples establishes a model PTPG framework that can be leveraged across the spectrum of nuclear plant digital modernization efforts going forward. This document addresses many related concepts. To promote an integrated understanding of the topics that make up this work, this document contains an extensive set of internal hyperlinks. This set includes hyperlinks to page numbers in the table of contents, section numbers, items in lists, figures, tables, and references to other documents within the report. When hovering the cursor above hyperlinked text in Adobe, the cursor will change from “ ” to “ .” When the “ ” appears, a left mouse click will take the reader to the referenced location in the document. To return to the original location in the document, the reader need only press and hold the “alt” button on the keyboard and then simultaneously press the “<” directional key on the keyboard.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analyzing Next-Generation Supply Chains Using the Materials Flows through Industry Tool

The Materials Flows through Industry (MFI) tool is a supply chain modeling tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with funding from the Department of Energy's Advanced Manufacturing Office. MFI was created to identify and analyze opportunities to reduce the energy and carbon intensities of the U.S. industrial sector (Hanes and Carpenter 2017). In this work, we present an overview of the MFI tool's structure and capabilities, as well as the results of using MFI to analyze a novel NREL-developed process to 'upcycle' PET plastic into higher-value composite materials (Rorrer et al. 2019). This process combines recycled PET (rPET) plastic with inputs that can be derived from biomass, including muconic acid, acrylic acid, and ethylene glycol, to chemically break down the plastic back to its monomers in a process called glycolization. Then, repolymerization and the application of fiberglass yields the valuable glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP) composite, a performance material used in the manufacture of wind turbine blades, boat hulls, and other applications. This rPET-derived GFRP was found to have superior strength and fiberglass adhesion compared to conventional GFRP formulations. Our findings indicate that this GFRP production process, were it to be widely commercialized beyond its current lab-scale, could potentially reduce the fossil energy intensity of the GFRP supply chain by between 37% and 58% compared to the conventional method of GFRP manufacture from fossil-derived inputs. We also estimate potential supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions between 30% and 40% from this process. Scaling these GHG offset estimates up to annual GFRP production in the U.S. would be roughly equivalent to removing between 150,000 and 200,000 vehicles from U.S. roads. These ranges of impact estimates represent the range of differences associated with the various economic allocation methods we have assumed for the intensity contributions from the first life of the PET plastic. Following Shen et al. (2010), we derive economic allocation factors from the current price ratios of clear- and green-colored recycled PET plastic to virgin PET resin ('waste-valuation' approach) or assume them to be zero in a more simplistic allocation ('cutoff' approach). Future work involving the MFI modeling tool will also be discussed, including preliminary results comparing the energy intensity of conventional and bio-based nylons manufacturing. Attendees will also be encouraged to conduct MFI supply chain modeling of their own by requesting a user account on the MFI web application, which is freely available to the public at the following address: https://mfitool.nrel.gov.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliability-Informed Life Cycle Warranty Cost and Life Cycle Analysis of Newly Manufactured and Remanufactured Units

Standard life cycle techniques such as life cycle warranty cost (LCWC) analysis and life cycle analysis (LCA) are used to respectively quantify the relative economical and environmental advantages of remanufactured goods while simultaneously identifying avenues for improvement. In this paper, we contribute to the literature on life cycle studies by incorporating reliability into LCWC analysis and LCA with the goal of improving long-term/multiple life cycle decision making. We develop a branched power-law model to incorporate the physical degradation mechanisms leading to reduced reuse rates of system parts over multiple life cycles. We then follow a standard LCA protocol to quantify the difference between a new unit and its remanufactured version in terms of environmental impact items such as abiotic depletion potential, global warming potential, and energy consumption. We then devise four practical warranty policies that vary in the choice of replacement and/or provision for extended warranty. All possible replacement scenarios for multiple life cycles are explored for each policy and a mathematically rigorous framework is provided, where the reliability information is used to calculate probabilistic LCWC and life cycle impact items. This reliability-informed LCWC analysis and LCA framework enables design engineers to compare design options and warranty policies by quantifying both economical and environmental impacts to aid in decision making. Although the framework is presented in a general form applicable to any engineered system, we demonstrate the utility of this framework by using a case study of an infinitely variable transmission used in agricultural equipment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of process steady state with autoregressive models and Bayesian inference

To improve efficiency, separations engineers will typically design process circuits containing recirculating streams, which mix one or more of the process outputs with the feed material. Doing so can improve efficiency, but will cause a delay in the system reaching steady state conditions until the recirculating load mass flows stabilize. In testing separation circuits, engineers will often test a variety of factors and complete an analysis from sample results. Knowledge of if a process is at steady state, as well as the steady state conditions of a process, is essential for a valid techno-economic analysis. However, the definition of process steady state is often poorly defined, or does not include uncertainty quantification. If the performance of a process operating under two different sets of conditions are compared, an engineer who does not test for steady state or quantify steady state conditions risks producing a faulty analysis. In this work, a Bayesian statistical method for testing if all streams are at steady state is further motivated and then derived. Then after testing for steady state, the same model is used with a prior distribution that enforces a steady state assumption to estimate steady state conditions. Further, these methods were validated in a solvent extraction pilot plant where steady state conditions for all outflows were inferred with uncertainty quantification. Analysis is completed with functions available to the reader as part of the BayesMassBal (V 1.1.0) software package written in R.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗