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At least 1,657 records · Page 92

COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND LIKELIHOOD APPROXIMATION FOR BANDED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

We investigate sets of random variables that can be arranged sequentially such that a given variable only depends conditionally on its immediate predecessor. For such sets, we show that the full joint probability distribution may be expressed exclusively in terms of uni- and bivariate marginals. Under the assumption that the cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectrum likelihood only exhibits correlations within a banded multipole range, Δl{sub C}, we apply this expression to two outstanding problems in CMB likelihood analysis. First, we derive a statistically well-defined hybrid likelihood estimator, merging two independent (e.g., low- and high-l) likelihoods into a single expression that properly accounts for correlations between the two. Applying this expression to the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) likelihood, we verify that the effect of correlations on cosmological parameters in the transition region is negligible in terms of cosmological parameters for WMAP; the largest relative shift seen for any parameter is 0.06σ. However, because this may not hold for other experimental setups (e.g., for different instrumental noise properties or analysis masks), but must rather be verified on a case-by-case basis, we recommend our new hybridization scheme for future experiments for statistical self-consistency reasons. Second, we use the same expression to improve the convergence rate of the Blackwell-Rao likelihood estimator, reducing the required number of Monte Carlo samples by several orders of magnitude, and thereby extend it to high-l applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parametric Study of Pulse-Combustor-Driven Ejectors at High-Pressure

Pulse-combustor configurations developed in recent studies have demonstrated performance levels at high-pressure operating conditions comparable to those observed at atmospheric conditions. However, problems related to the way fuel was being distributed within the pulse combustor were still limiting performance. In the first part of this study, new configurations are investigated computationally aimed at improving the fuel distribution and performance of the pulse-combustor. Subsequent sections investigate the performance of various pulse-combustor driven ejector configurations operating at highpressure conditions, focusing on the effects of fuel equivalence ratio and ejector throat area. The goal is to design pulse-combustor-ejector configurations that maximize pressure gain while achieving a thermal environment acceptable to a turbine, and at the same time maintain acceptable levels of NOx emissions and flow non-uniformities. The computations presented here have demonstrated pressure gains of up to 2.8%.

pulsejet↗

Role of Fluid and Temperature in Fracture Mechanics and Coupled THMC Processes for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

The ability to sustain high energy extraction efficiency from Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) is affected by the ability to measure, characterize, and predict the effect of different perturbations that arise from fluid injection rates, fluid temperature, and shut-in conditions on existing and stimulated fracture systems throughout a subsurface reservoir’s lifecycle. The difficulty arises from limited knowledge of the interaction of fluid and temperature driven fractures with frictional interfaces that govern local deformation and frictional behavior in the surrounding rock. Thermo-poro-mechanical coupled processes tend to dominate this interaction and strongly affect the permeability and local stress distributions that impact efficiency and prevent optimal stimulation conditions over multi-decadal time frames.

Pyrak-Nolte, Laura [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, ↗

Ion Sources and Acceleration Mechanisms Inferred from Local Distribution Functions

This study investigates the sources of the ions up the complex and nonisotropic H(+) velocity distribution functions observed by the Geotail spacecraft on May 23, 1995, in the near-Earth magnetotail region and recently reported by Frank et al. [1996]. A distribution function observed by Geotail at -10 R(sub E) downtail is used as input for the large scale kinetic (LSK) technique to follow the trajectories of approximately 90,000 H(+) ions backward in time. Time-dependent magnetic and electric fields are taken from a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the magnetosphere and its interactions with appropriate solar wind and IMF conditions. The ion population described by the Geotail distribution function was found to consist of a mixture of particles originating from three distinct sources: the ionosphere, the low latitude boundary layer (LLBL), and the high latitude plasma mantle. Ionospheric particles had direct access along field lines to Geotail, and LLBL ions convected adiabatically to the Geotail location. Plasma mantle ions, on the other hand, exhibited two distinct types of behavior. Most near-Earth mantle ions reached Geotail on adiabatic orbits, while distant mantle ions interacted with the current sheet tailward of Geotail and had mostly nonadiabatic orbits. Ions from the ionosphere, the LLBL, and the near-Earth mantle were directly responsible for the well-separated, low energy structures easily discernible in the observed and modeled distribution functions. Distant mantle ions formed the higher energy portion of the Geotail distribution. Thus, we have been successful in extracting useful information about particle sources, their relative contribution to the measured distribution and the acceleration processes that affected particle transport during this time.

Ashour-Abdalla, M.↗

An Investigation of Hydrate Formation in Unsaturated Sediments Using X-Ray Computed Tomography

Physical properties of hydrate–bearing sediments are often correlated with hydrate saturation with little or no information on hydrate distribution uniformity in the specimens. This study focuses on water redistribution and sediment skeleton shift depending on various hydrate formation conditions in unsaturated systems, as well as on the resulting hydrate distribution patterns. Using X–ray computed tomography, we investigate the factors such as fines content and the pressure–temperature path on mass migration during carbon dioxide hydrate formation. The experiments show water migration, preferential hydrate formation toward the core periphery, localized patchy hydrate distribution, and sediment particle movement toward the core center. Sediment particle movement can be impeded in densely packed specimens. Furthermore, the overall mass migration due to hydrate formation can be significantly suppressed by adding 5% by mass of kaolinite. Hydrate formation initiated by pressurization and then cooling causes less mass migration than the cases where hydrate is formed using cooling followed by pressurization or pressurizing frozen cores followed by heating methods. Freezing can induce water migration and particle pushing in a similar manner as hydrate formation. Image analyses show that the pressure–temperature path and the rates of heat transfer during hydrate nucleation and growth govern the uniformity of hydrate distribution in sediments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

[Results of Simulation Studies]

Lattice Monte Carlo and off-lattice molecular dynamics simulations of h(sub 1)t(sub 4) and h(sub 4)t(sub l) (head/tail) amphiphile solutions have been performed as a function of surfactant concentration and temperature. The lattice and off-lattice systems exhibit quite different self-assembly behavior at equivalent thermodynamic conditions. We found that in the weakly aggregating regime (no preferred-size micelles), all models yield similar micelle size distributions at the same average aggregation number, albeit at different thermodynamic conditions (temperatures). In the strongly aggregating regime, this mapping between models (through temperature adjustment) fails, and the models exhibit qualitatively different micellization behavior. Incipient micellization in a model self-associating telechelic polymer solution results in a network with a transient elastic response that decays by a two-step relaxation: the first is due to a heterogeneous jump-diffusion process involving entrapment of end-groups within well-defined clusters and this is followed by rapid diffusion to neighboring clusters and a decay (terminal relaxation) due to cluster disintegration. The viscoelastic response of the solution manifests characteristics of a glass transition and entangled polymer network.

Source record↗

Deformation analysis of SiC-SiC channel box for BWR applications

Silicon carbide fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC-SiC) composites are being considered as components in light water reactor cores to improve accident tolerance, including channel boxes and fuel cladding. In the nuclear reactor environment, core components like a channel box will be exposed to neutron and other radiation damage and temperature gradients. To ensure reliable and safe operation of a SiC-SiC channel box, it is important to assess its deformation behavior under in-reactor conditions including the expected neutron flux and temperature distributions. In particular, this work has evaluated the effect of non-uniform dimensional changes caused by spatially varying neutron flux and temperatures on the deformation behavior of the channel box over the course of one year. These analyses have been performed using the fuel performance modeling code BISON and the commercial finite element analysis code Abaqus, based on fast flux and temperature boundary conditions that have been calculated using the neutronics and thermal-hydraulics codes Serpent and CTF, respectively. The dependence of dimensions and thermophysical properties on fast flux and temperature has been incorporated into the material models. These initial results indicate significant bowing of the channel box with a lateral displacement greater than 6.5 mm. The channel box bowing behavior is time dependent and driven by the temperature dependence of the SiC irradiation-induced swelling and the neutron flux/fluence gradients. The bowing behavior gradually recovers during the course of the operating cycle as the swelling of the SiC-SiC material saturates. Furthermore, the bending relaxation due to temperature gradients does not fully recover and residual bending remains after the swelling saturates in the entire channel box.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Conditions Data Management System for HEP Experiments

Conditions data infrastructure for both ATLAS and CMS have to deal with the management of several Terabytes of data. Distributed computing access to this data requires particular care and attention to manage request-rates of up to several tens of kHz. Thanks to the large overlap in use cases and requirements, ATLAS and CMS have worked towards a common solution for conditions data management with the aim of using this design for data-taking in Run 3. In the meantime other experiments, including NA62, have expressed an interest in this cross- experiment initiative. For experiments with a smaller payload volume and complexity, there is particular interest in simplifying the payload storage. The conditions data management model is implemented in a small set of relational database tables. A prototype access toolkit consisting of an intermediate web server has been implemented, using standard technologies available in the Java community. Access is provided through a set of REST services for which the API has been described in a generic way using standard Open API specications, implemented in Swagger. Such a solution allows the automatic generation of client code and server stubs and further allows changes in the backend technology transparently. An important advantage of using a REST API for conditions access is the possibility of caching identical URLs, addressing one of the biggest challenges that large distributed computing solutions impose on conditions data access, avoiding direct DB access by means of standard web proxy solutions.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

On hydrologic similarity: A dimensionless flood frequency model using a generalized geomorphologic unit hydrograph and partial area runoff generation

One of the shortcomings of the original theory of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph (GUH) is that it assumes that runoff is generated uniformly from the entire catchment area. It is now recognized that in many catchments much of the runoff during storm events is produced on partial areas which usually form on narrow bands along the stream network. A storm response model that includes runoff generation on partial areas by both Hortonian and Dunne mechanisms was recently developed by the authors. In this paper a methodology for integrating this partial area runoff generation model with the GUH-based runoff routing model is presented; this leads to a generalized GUH. The generalized GUH and the storm response model are then used to estimate physically based flood frequency distributions. In most previous work the initial moisture state of the catchment had been assumed to be constant for all the storms. In this paper we relax this assumption and allow the initial moisture conditions to vary between storms. The resulting flood frequency distributions are cast in a scaled dimensionless framework where issues such as catchment scale and similarity can be conveniently addressed. A number of experiments are performed to study the sensitivity of the flood frequency response to some of the 'similarity' parameters identified in this formulation. The results indicate that one of the most important components of the derived flood frequency model relates to the specification of processes within the runoff generation model; specifically the inclusion of both saturation excess and Horton infiltration excess runoff production mechanisms. The dominance of these mechanisms over different return periods of the flood frequency distribution can significantly affect the distributional shape and confidence limits about the distribution. Comparisons with observed flood distributions seem to indicate that such mixed runoff production mechanisms influence flood distribution shape. The sensitivity analysis also indicated that the incorporation of basin and rainfall storm scale also greatly influences the distributional shape of the flood frequency curve.

Sivapalan, Murugesu↗

Ring formation in rotating protostellar clouds

The formation of a ring during the dynamic collapse of a rotating gas cloud is shown to be an understandable physical phenomenon. By analytically integrating the equation of motion for particles in the equatorial plane of a rotating cloud which collapses in a gravitational potential well defined by a (1 - r-squared) mass density distribution the mechanism which initiates the growth of the toroidal structure is demonstrated. An analysis of the ring formation process indicates that the ring should develop in rotating, self-gravitating gas clouds which collapse from a wide range of axisymmetric intial conditions; the degree of central condensation and the initial distribution of angular momentum in a cloud should affect only the position and size of the developing ring. Ring formation, being a dynamic process in collapsing gas clouds, cannot be explained in terms of the classical ring instability that arises in rapidly rotating, equilibrium spheroids. Conditions in a cloud which should inhibit ring formation are also discussed.

Tohline, J. E.↗

Scaling of Electron Heating by Magnetization During Reconnection and Applications to Dipolarization Fronts and Super-Hot Solar Flares

Electron ring velocity space distributions have previously been seen in numerical simulations of magnetic reconnection exhausts and have been suggested to be caused by the magnetization of the electron outflow jet by the compressed reconnected magnetic fields (Shuster et al., 2014, https://doi. org/10.1002/2014GL060608). Here, we present a theory of the dependence of the major and minor radii of the ring distributions solely in terms of upstream (lobe) plasma conditions, thereby allowing a prediction of the associated temperature and temperature anisotropy of the rings in terms of upstream parameters. We test the validity of the prediction using 2.5-dimensional particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations with varying upstream plasma density and temperature, finding excellent agreement between the predicted and simulated values. We confirm the Shuster et al. suggestion for the cause of the ring distributions, and also find that the ring distributions are located in a region marked by a plateau, or shoulder, in the reconnected magnetic field profile. The predictions of the temperature are consistent with observed electron temperatures in dipolarization fronts, and may provide an explanation for the generation of plasma with temperatures in the 10s of MK in super-hot solar flares. A possible extension of the model to dayside reconnection is discussed. Since ring distributions are known to excite whistler waves, the present results should be useful for quantifying the generation of whistler waves in reconnection exhausts.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The kinetics of composite particle formation during mechanical alloying

The kinetics of composite particle formation during attritor milling of insoluble binary elemental powders have been examined. The effects of processing conditions (i.e., mill power, temperature, and charge ratio) on these kinetics were studied. Particle size distributions and fractions of elemental and composite particles were determined as functions of milling time and processing conditions. This allowed the deduction of phenomenological rate constants describing the propensity for fracture and welding during processing. For the mill-operating conditions investigated, the number of particles in the mill generally decreased with milling time, indicating a greater tendency for particle welding than fracture. Moreover, a bimodal size distribution is often obtained as a result of preferential welding. Copper and chromium 'alloy' primarily by encapsulation of Cr particles within Cu. This form of alloying also occurs in Cu-Nb alloys processed at low mill power and/or for short milling times. For other conditions, however, Cu-Nb alloys develop a lamellar morphology characteristic of mechanically alloyed two-phase ductile metals. Increasing mill power or charge (ball-to-powder weight) ratio (CR) increases the rate of composite particle formation.

Aikin, B. J. M.↗

Dynamic Power Network State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

The operation of distribution networks is becoming increasingly volatile, due to fast variations of renewables and, hence, net-loading conditions. To perform a reliable state estimation under these conditions, this paper considers the case where measurements from meters, phasor measurement units, and distributed energy resources are collected and processed in real time to produce estimates of the state at a fast time scale. Streams of measurements collected in real time and at heterogenous rates render the underlying processing asynchronous, and poses severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms. In this work, a real-time state estimation algorithm is proposed, where data are processed on the fly. Starting from a regularized least-squares model, and leveraging appropriate linear models, the proposed scheme boils down to a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and on the measurement gathered from a few available sensors. The estimation error is shown to be always bounded under mild condition. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Dynamic Power Network State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements: Preprint

The operation of distribution networks is becoming increasingly volatile, due to fast variations of renewables and, hence, net-loading conditions. To perform a reliable state estimation under these conditions, this paper considers the case where measurements from meters, phasor measurement units, and distributed energy resources are collected and processed in real time to produce estimates of the state at a fast time scale. Streams of measurements collected in real time and at heterogenous rates render the underlying processing asynchronous, and poses severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms. In this work, a real-time state estimation algorithm is proposed, where data are processed on the fly. Starting from a regularized least-squares model, and leveraging appropriate linear models, the proposed scheme boils down to a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and on the measurement gathered from a few available sensors. The estimation error is shown to be always bounded under mild condition. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Definition of System Angle Reference for Distribution Level Synchronized Angle Measurement Applications

Distribution phasor measurement units (DPMUs) provide power grid operators unprecedented system monitoring opportunities with local-area, synchronized, low latency, and high-resolution measurements. All raw angle measurements in DPMUs need a common angle reference for comparison since the phase is likely to be shifted by transformers in distribution network. To obtain a robust reference under conditions of data loss or local oscillation, this letter proposes a definition of system angle reference for DPMU. The effectiveness of this system angle is confirmed via real measurement data collected by DPMUs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Preliminary Analysis of SiC BWR Channel Box Performance under Normal Operation

SiC-SiC composites are being considered for applications in the core components, including BWR channel box and fuel rod cladding, of light water reactors to improve accident tolerance. In the extreme nuclear reactor environment, core components like the BWR channel box will be exposed to neutron damage and a corrosive environment. To ensure reliable and safe operation of a SiC channel box, it is important to assess its deformation behavior under in-reactor conditions including the expected neutron flux and temperature distributions. In particular, this work has evaluated the effect of non-uniform dimensional changes caused by spatially varying neutron flux and temperatures on the deformation behavior of the channel box over the course of one cycle of irradiation. These analyses have been performed using the fuel performance modeling code BISON and the commercial finite element analysis code Abaqus, based on fast flux and temperature boundary conditions have been calculated using the neutronics and thermal-hydraulics codes Serpent2 and COBRA-TF, respectively. The dependence of dimensions and thermophysical properties on fast flux and temperature has been incorporated into the material models. These initial results indicate significant bowing of the channel box with a lateral displacement greater than 6.5mm. The channel box bowing behavior is time dependent, and driven by the temperature dependence of the SiC irradiation-induced swelling and the neutron flux/fluence gradients. The bowing behavior gradually recovers during the course of the operating cycle as the swelling of the SiC-SiC material saturates. However, the bending relaxation due to temperature gradients does not fully recover and residual bending remains after the swelling saturates in the entire channel box.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗