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Modification of a successive corrections objective analysis for improved higher order calculations

The use of objectively analyzed fields of meteorological data for the initialization of numerical prediction models and for complex diagnostic studies places the requirements upon the objective method that derivatives of the gridded fields be accurate and free from interpolation error. A modification was proposed for an objective analysis developed by Barnes that provides improvements in analysis of both the field and its derivatives. Theoretical comparisons, comparisons between analyses of analytical monochromatic waves, and comparisons between analyses of actual weather data are used to show the potential of the new method. The new method restores more of the amplitudes of desired wavelengths while simultaneously filtering more of the amplitudes of undesired wavelengths. These results also hold for the first and second derivatives calculated from the gridded fields. Greatest improvements were for the Laplacian of the height field; the new method reduced the variance of undesirable very short wavelengths by 72 percent. Other improvements were found in the divergence of the gridded wind field and near the boundaries of the field of data.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗

Response of a two-dimensional dual-Doppler radar wind synthesis

The wind field resulting from a two-dimensional dual-Doppler synthesis algorithms is spectrally modified from the true wind field. The effects of spatial filtering on wind fields from the processes of interpolation, the averaging of pulses, and the effect of the finite radar pulse dimension were assessed. The effect resulting from the use of different interpolation techniques was also evaluated. Of those techniques tested, the best are the Cressman distance-weighted averaging and linear distance-weighted averaging, with the closest neighbor and uniform weighting having more undesirable characteristics. The optimum influence radius is defined as the influence radius at which the ratio of the rms difference between the Fourier and least-squares responses (a measure of the aliasing) and the variance of the filtered wind field is minimized. This seeks to minimize the effect of energy aliased into scales other than the input wavelength. For the Cressman interpolation technique, the optimum influence radius is between 1.85 and 2.25 times the maximum data spacing. The range of acceptable influence radii includes consideration of the filtering by the radar of the data as it is collected, as well as the resolution of the final dataset. The optimum influence radius is dependent upon the largest data separation in the analysis domain. The absolute optimum influence radius is not significantly affected by inclusion of the radar-beam filtering effects.

Given, Terence↗

Rainfall Product Evaluation for the TRMM Ground Validation Program

Evaluation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observations is conducted through a comprehensive Ground Validation (GV) Program. Standardized instantaneous and monthly rainfall products are routinely generated using quality-controlled ground based radar data from four primary GV sites. As part of the TRMM GV program, effort is being made to evaluate these GV products and to determine the uncertainties of the rainfall estimates. The evaluation effort is based on comparison to rain gauge data. The variance between the gauge measurement and the true averaged rain amount within the radar pixel is a limiting factor in the evaluation process. While monthly estimates are relatively simple to evaluate, the evaluation of the instantaneous products are much more of a challenge. Scattegrams of point comparisons between radar and rain gauges are extremely noisy for several reasons (e.g. sample volume discrepancies, timing and navigation mismatches, variability of Z(sub e)-R relationships), and therefore useless for evaluating the estimates. Several alternative methods, such as the analysis of the distribution of rain volume by rain rate as derived from gauge intensities and from reflectivities above the gauge network will be presented. Alternative procedures to increase the accuracy of the estimates and to reduce their uncertainties also will be discussed.

Amitai, E.↗

Phase noise in pulsed Doppler lidar and limitations on achievable single-shot velocity accuracy

The smaller sampling volumes afforded by Doppler lidars compared to radars allows for spatial resolutions at and below some sheer and turbulence wind structure scale sizes. This has brought new emphasis on achieving the optimum product of wind velocity and range resolutions. Several recent studies have considered the effects of amplitude noise, reduction algorithms, and possible hardware related signal artifacts on obtainable velocity accuracy. We discuss here the limitation on this accuracy resulting from the incoherent nature and finite temporal extent of backscatter from aerosols. For a lidar return from a hard (or slab) target, the phase of the intermediate frequency (IF) signal is random and the total return energy fluctuates from shot to shot due to speckle; however, the offset from the transmitted frequency is determinable with an accuracy subject only to instrumental effects and the signal to noise ratio (SNR), the noise being determined by the LO power in the shot noise limited regime. This is not the case for a return from a media extending over a range on the order of or greater than the spatial extent of the transmitted pulse, such as from atmospheric aerosols. In this case, the phase of the IF signal will exhibit a temporal random walk like behavior. It will be uncorrelated over times greater than the pulse duration as the transmitted pulse samples non-overlapping volumes of scattering centers. Frequency analysis of the IF signal in a window similar to the transmitted pulse envelope will therefore show shot-to-shot frequency deviations on the order of the inverse pulse duration reflecting the random phase rate variations. Like speckle, these deviations arise from the incoherent nature of the scattering process and diminish if the IF signal is averaged over times greater than a single range resolution cell (here the pulse duration). Apart from limiting the high SNR performance of a Doppler lidar, this shot-to-shot variance in velocity estimates has a practical impact on lidar design parameters. In high SNR operation, for example, a lidar's efficiency in obtaining mean wind measurements is determined by its repetition rate and not pulse energy or average power. In addition, this variance puts a practical limit on the shot-to-shot hard target performance required of a lidar.

Mcnicholl, P.↗

Optical and radio variability in blazars

An analysis is presented of the optical (0.44 micron) and radio flux density variations (4.8, 8.0, and 14.5 GHz) of the five best observed variable AGN, of which three are BL Lac objects and two are optically violent variable (OVV) quasars. For each object the nature of the variability at individual wavelengths is determined by using a structure function analysis and the autocorrelation function as calculated from the discrete correlation technique. Both techniques yield similar results, showing that the optical variations are similar for all objects and are a combination of flicker and shot noise. The radio variability is distinct, being described by shot noise (less variation at short times), with the two OVVs exhibiting the most extreme behavior. The time lag between the variations at the three radio frequencies and the optical flux is studied with the discrete cross-correlation function and the mean variance methods. It is concluded that the optical and radio emitting regions are physically related, exist on distinct time scales, and excite their synchrotron emitting plasmas differently.

Hufnagel, Beth R.↗

Environmental Stress Testing of the Single Sample Cylinder: A Proven Consensus Standard for Internal Gas Analysis (IGA) or Residual Gas Analysis (RGA)

In August 2008, Schuessler Consulting was contracted by NASA GSFC in support of the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) program to perform two separate studies on moisture laden air in a stainless steel cylinder that had been designed to become a consensus standard for Test Method 1018. This Test Method was originally released for hybrids under Mil. Std. 883 but was quickly utilized on other microelectronic devices under the auspice of Mil. Std. 750. The cylinder had subsequently been fabricated for the 750 community. It was back-filled with moist air and subsequently analyzed over a period of time under a previous NASA contract. It had been shown that moisture in the 4000 - 5000 ppm range could be analyzed rather precisely with a mass spectrometer, commonly referred to as a Residual Gas Analyzer (RGA). The scope of this study was to ascertain if the composition and precision varied as a function of thermal shock at sub-zero temperatures and whether there was consensus when the standard was submitted to other RGA units. It was demonstrated and published that the consensus standard would yield precise RGA data for moisture within +/- 1% when optimized for a given RGA unit. It has been subsequently shown in this study at Oneida Research Services, that sub-zero storage did not affect that precision when a well-defined protocol for the analysis was followed. The consensus standard was taken to a second facility for analysis where it was found that moisture adsorption on the transfer lines caused precision to drop to +/- 12%. The Single Sample Cylinder (SSC) is a one liter stainless steel cylinder with associated sampling valves and has considerable weight and volume. But this considerable size allows for approximately 300 gas samples of the same composition to be delivered to any RGA unit. Lastly, a smaller cylinder, approximately 75 cc, of a second consensus standard was fabricated and tested with a different mix of fixed gases where moisture was kept in the 100 ppm range. This second standard has the potential of providing 30 gaseous samples and can be readily shipped to any analytical facility that desires to generate comparison RGA data. A series of comparison residual gas analyses was performed at the Honeywell Federal Manufacturing & Technologies facility in the National Nuclear Facility Administration s plant in Kansas City to complete this project. It was shown that improvements in the precision of a given RGA unit can be done by controlling the cycle time for each analysis and increasing analysis temperatures to minimize moisture adsorption. It was also found that a "one time event" in the subzero storage of the large SSC did not effect the units ability to continuously supply precise samples of the same chemistry, however the "event" caused a permanent +8% shift in the reported value of the moisture content. Lastly, a set of SSC RGA results was plotted on a common graph with DSCC "correlation study" RGA data. The result demonstrates the ability of the SSC to remove many of the individual variances that single, individual samples introduce. The consensus standards are now in storage at Oneida Research Services, one of the DSCC certified houses that does RGA to Military Standards, where they await future studies. The analytical data and the operational parameters of the instruments used are provided in the following discussion. Limitations and suggested means for improvement of both precision and accuracy are provided.

Schuessler, Philipp WH↗

Analysis and statistics of discontinuities as obtained from 3D simulation of MHD turbulence

The turbulent solar wind abounds with MHD discontinuities, and such discontinuities are often found in close connection with turbulence intermittency, constituting a possible main contributor to the turbulence dissipation and solar wind heating. Among the discontinuities, tangential (TD) and rotational (RD) ones are two most important types. Recently, the connection between turbulence intermittency and proton thermodynamics has been being intensively investigated. Such connections are founded to be involved with MHD instablilities, but the difference of TDs an RDs in this process has not yet been covered. Herewith we define new methods for identifying TDs and RDs obtained from a three-dimensional MHD simulation with pressure anisotropy. Especially, we define the Total Variance of Increments (TVI) as a new measure of magnetic field changes. Based on the identified cases, we compare their occurrence rates and heating effects. More specifically, we find that the thermal states embedding TDs, compared with their RD counterparts, tend to be more associated with extreme plasma parameters or instabilites. Some other possible applications of TVI-like norms are also herewith discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Microseismicity Analysis for HFTS Pad and Correlation With Completion Parameters

Microseismic data can be used as a tool to help understand fracturing behavior during hydraulic stimulation. Recent studies have validated complex fracture growth and interaction during fracturing process and there is a need to better utilize microseismic data as a way of improving our understanding of this complexity. Moreover, significant stress variations along the laterals and various formations of interest can be better interpreted by making use of b-value distribution as a proxy measure for stress. In this study, we tie the Frequency Magnitude Distributions (FMD) from microseismic with the 3D seismic and petrophysical data to understand stress variations within the upper and middle Wolfcamp formations. We also look at how temporal microseismic FMD variance can be used as a tool to help understand fracturing behavior with time. Our results highlight the utility of microseismic FMD as a valuable hydraulic fracturing diagnostic tool post fracturing operations and as a validation for observations made during treatment including relevant treatment parameters.

Maity, Debotyam↗

A new multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

Process-based models have been widely used for hydrologic modeling, and it is a common practice to use sensitivity analysis methods for excluding non-influential hydrologic processes from further investigation and/or model improvement. This study develops a new method called multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential system processes and parameters. MMADS is conceptually similar to the Morris method for addressing parametric uncertainty, but has a unique feature to address both process model uncertainty (i.e., a process may be represented by multiple process models) and process model parameter uncertainty (i.e., parameters associated with a process model are random). MMADS first evaluates absolute differences of a quantity of interest (i.e., a system model output) by varying process models and/or process model parameter values, and then calculates the mean and variance of the differences for investigating process influence. The mean measures overall influence of the process on the quantity of interest, and the variance estimates influence of nonlinear effects of the process and/or its interactions with other processes. MMADS is an extension of the Morris method from a parameter space to a joint parameter-model space for explicitly addressing both process model uncertainty and model parameter uncertainty. The performance of MMADS is evaluated by using two numerical experiments. One experiment is based on Sobol’s G*-function with ten product elements, and has analytical solutions of the MMADS mean and variance of absolute differences. The other experiment is for groundwater flow modeling which considers three processes (i.e., recharge, geology, and snowmelt) that interact with each other. Finally, results indicate that MMADS is computationally efficient and can identify non-influential processes of complex hydrological systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Faint submillimeter galaxies revealed by multifield deep ALMA observations: number counts, spatial clustering, and a dark submillimeter line emitter

We present the statistics of faint submillimeter/millimeter galaxies (SMGs) and serendipitous detections of a submillimeter/millimeter line emitter (SLE) with no multi-wavelength continuum counterpart revealed by the deep ALMA observations. We identify faint SMGs with flux densities of 0.1-1.0 mJy in the deep Band-6 and Band-7 maps of 10 independent fields that reduce cosmic variance effects. The differential number counts at 1.2 mm are found to increase with decreasing flux density down to 0.1 mJy. Our number counts indicate that the faint (0.1-1.0 mJy, or SFR{sub IR} ∼ 30-300 M {sub ☉} yr{sup –1}) SMGs contribute nearly a half of the extragalactic background light (EBL), while the remaining half of the EBL is mostly contributed by very faint sources with flux densities of <0.1 mJy (SFR{sub IR} ≲ 30 M {sub ☉} yr{sup –1}). We conduct counts-in-cells analysis with multifield ALMA data for the faint SMGs, and obtain a coarse estimate of galaxy bias, b {sub g} < 4. The galaxy bias suggests that the dark halo masses of the faint SMGs are ≲ 7 × 10{sup 12} M {sub ☉}, which is smaller than those of bright (>1 mJy) SMGs, but consistent with abundant high-z star-forming populations, such as sBzKs, LBGs, and LAEs. Finally, we report the serendipitous detection of SLE-1, which has no continuum counterparts in our 1.2 mm-band or multi-wavelength images, including ultra deep HST/WFC3 and Spitzer data. The SLE has a significant line at 249.9 GHz with a signal-to-noise ratio of 7.1. If the SLE is not a spurious source made by the unknown systematic noise of ALMA, the strong upper limits of our multi-wavelength data suggest that the SLE would be a faint galaxy at z ≳ 6.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Methods for the robust computation of the long-period seismic spectrum of broad-band arrays

SUMMARY We describe array methods to search for low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) signals in long-period seismic data using Fourier analysis. This is motivated by published results that find evidence of solar free oscillations in the Earth's seismic hum. Previous work used data from only one station. In this paper, we describe methods for computing spectra from array data. Arrays reduce noise level through averaging and provide redundancy that we use to distinguish coherent signal from a random background. We describe two algorithms for calculating a robust spectrum from seismic arrays, an algorithm that automatically removes impulsive transient signals from data, a jackknife method for estimating the variance of the spectrum, and a method for assessing the significance of an entire spectral band. We show examples of their application to data recorded by the Homestake Mine 3-D array in Lead, SD and the Piñon Flats PY array. These are two of the quietest small aperture arrays ever deployed in North America. The underground Homestake data has exceptionally low noise, and the borehole sensors of the PY array also have very low noise, making these arrays well suited to finding very weak signals. We find that our methods remove transient signals effectively from the data so that even low-SNR signals in the seismic background can be found and tested. Additionally, we find that the jackknife variance estimate is comparable to the noise floor, and we present initial evidence for solar g-modes in our data through the T2 test, a multivariate generalization of Student's t-test.

Caton, Ross C.↗

ON THE NATURE OF X-RAY SURFACE BRIGHTNESS FLUCTUATIONS IN M87

X-ray images of galaxy clusters and gas-rich elliptical galaxies show a wealth of small-scale features that reflect fluctuations in density and/or temperature of the intracluster medium. In this paper we study these fluctuations in M87/Virgo to establish whether sound waves/shocks, bubbles, or uplifted cold gas dominate the structure. We exploit the strong dependence of the emissivity on density and temperature in different energy bands to distinguish between these processes. Using simulations we demonstrate that our analysis recovers the leading type of fluctuation even in the presence of projection effects and temperature gradients. We confirm the isobaric nature of cool filaments of gas entrained by buoyantly rising bubbles, extending to 7′ to the east and southwest, and the adiabatic nature of the weak shocks at 40″ and 3′ from the center. For features of ∼5–10 kpc, we show that the central 4′ × 4′ region is dominated by cool structures in pressure equilibrium with the ambient hotter gas while up to 30% of the variance in this region can be ascribed to adiabatic fluctuations. The remaining part of the central 14′ × 14′ region, excluding the arms and shocks described above, is dominated by apparently isothermal fluctuations (bubbles) with a possible admixture (at the level of ∼30%) of adiabatic (sound waves) and by isobaric structures. Larger features, of about 30 kpc, show a stronger contribution from isobaric fluctuations. The results broadly agree with a model based on feedback from an active galactic nucleus mediated by bubbles of relativistic plasma.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis and interpretation of satellite fragmentation data

The velocity perturbations of the fragments of a satellite can shed valuable information regarding the nature and intensity of the fragmentation. A feasibility study on calculating the velocity perturbations from existing equations was carried out by analyzing 23 major documented fragmentation events. It was found that whereas the calculated values of the radial components of the velocity change were often unusually high, those in the two other orthogonal directions were mostly reasonable. Since the uncertainties in the radial component necessarily translate into uncertainties in the total velocity change, it is suggested that alternative expressions for the radial component of velocity be sought for the purpose of determining the cause of the fragmentation from the total velocity change. The calculated variances in the velocity perturbations in the two directions orthogonal to the radial vector indicate that they have the smallest values for collision induced breakups and the largest values for low-intensity explosion induced breakups. The corresponding variances for high-intensity explosion induced breakups generally have values intermediate between those of the two extreme categories. A three-dimensional plot of the variances in the two orthogonal velocity perturbations and the plane change angle shows a clear separation between the three major types of breakups. This information is used to reclassify a number of satellite fragmentation events of unknown category.

Tan, Arjun↗

Timing Analysis with INTEGRAL: Comparing Different Reconstruction Algorithms

INTEGRAL is one of the few instruments capable of detecting X-rays above 20keV. It is therefore in principle well suited for studying X-ray variability in this regime. Because INTEGRAL uses coded mask instruments for imaging, the reconstruction of light curves of X-ray sources is highly non-trivial. We present results from the comparison of two commonly employed algorithms, which primarily measure flux from mask deconvolution (ii-lc-extract) and from calculating the pixel illuminated fraction (ii-light). Both methods agree well for timescales above about 10 s, the highest time resolution for which image reconstruction is possible. For higher time resolution, ii-light produces meaningful results, although the overall variance of the lightcurves is not preserved.

Grinberg, V.↗

Implied alignment: a synapomorphy-based multiple-sequence alignment method and its use in cladogram search

A method to align sequence data based on parsimonious synapomorphy schemes generated by direct optimization (DO; earlier termed optimization alignment) is proposed. DO directly diagnoses sequence data on cladograms without an intervening multiple-alignment step, thereby creating topology-specific, dynamic homology statements. Hence, no multiple-alignment is required to generate cladograms. Unlike general and globally optimal multiple-alignment procedures, the method described here, implied alignment (IA), takes these dynamic homologies and traces them back through a single cladogram, linking the unaligned sequence positions in the terminal taxa via DO transformation series. These "lines of correspondence" link ancestor-descendent states and, when displayed as linearly arrayed columns without hypothetical ancestors, are largely indistinguishable from standard multiple alignment. Since this method is based on synapomorphy, the treatment of certain classes of insertion-deletion (indel) events may be different from that of other alignment procedures. As with all alignment methods, results are dependent on parameter assumptions such as indel cost and transversion:transition ratios. Such an IA could be used as a basis for phylogenetic search, but this would be questionable since the homologies derived from the implied alignment depend on its natal cladogram and any variance, between DO and IA + Search, due to heuristic approach. The utility of this procedure in heuristic cladogram searches using DO and the improvement of heuristic cladogram cost calculations are discussed. c2003 The Willi Hennig Society. Published by Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Non-NASA Center↗

Cosmological implications of the full shape of anisotropic clustering measurements in BOSS and eBOSS

We present the analysis of the full shape of anisotropic clustering measurement from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) quasar sample together with the combined galaxy sample from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS), re-analysed using an updated recipe for the non-linear matter power spectrum and the non-local bias parameters. We obtain constraints for flat Lambda cold dark matter cosmologies, focusing on the cosmological parameters that are independent of the Hubble parameter h. Our recovered value for the Root Mean Square (RMS) linear perturbation theory variance as measured on the scale of 12 Mpc is σ 12 = 0.805 ± 0.049, while using the traditional reference scale of 8 h –1 Mpc gives σ 8 = 0.815 ± 0.044. We quantify the agreement between our measurements and the latest cosmic microwave background data from Planck using the suspiciousness metric, and find them to be consistent within 0.64 ± 0.03σ. Combining our clustering constraints with the 3 × 2pt data sample from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 release slightly degrades this agreement to the level of 1.54 ± 0.08σ, while still showing an overall consistency with Planck. We furthermore study the effect of imposing a Planck – like prior on the parameters that define the shape of the linear matter power spectrum, and find significantly tighter constraints on the parameters that control the evolution of density fluctuations. In particular, the combination of low-redshift data sets prefers a value of the physical dark energy density ω DE = 0.335 ± 0.011, which is 1.7σ higher than the one preferred by Planck.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Transcript Analysis for Internal Biodosimetry Using Peripheral Blood from Neuroblastoma Patients Treated with 131 I-mIBG, a Targeted Radionuclide

Calculating internal dose from therapeutic radionuclides currently relies on estimates made from multiple radiation exposure measurements, converted to absorbed dose in specific organs using the Medical Internal Radiation Dose (MIRD) schema. As an alternative biodosimetric approach, we utilized gene expression analysis of whole blood from patients receiving targeted radiotherapy. Collected blood from patients with relapsed or refractory neuroblastoma who received 131 I-labeled metaiodobenzylguanidine ( 131 I-mIBG) at the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) was used to compare calculated internal dose with the modulation of chosen gene expression. A total of 40 patients, median age 9 years, had blood drawn at baseline, 72 and 96 h after 131 I-mIBG infusion. Whole-body absorbed dose was calculated for each patient based on the cumulated activity determined from injected mIBG activity and patient-specific time-activity curves combined with 131 I whole-body S factors. We then assessed transcripts that were the most significant for describing the mixed therapeutic treatments over time using real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Modulation was evaluated statistically using multiple regression analysis for data at 0, 72 and 96 h. A total of 10 genes were analyzed across 40 patients: CDKN1A; FDXR; GADD45A; BCLXL; STAT5B; BAX; BCL2; DDB2; XPC; and MDM2. Six genes were significantly modulated upon exposure to 131 I-mIBG at 72 h, as well as at 96 h. Four genes varied significantly with absorbed dose when controlling for time. A gene expression biodosimetry model was developed to predict absorbed dose based on modulation of gene transcripts within whole blood. Three transcripts explained over 98% of the variance in the modulation of gene expression over the 96 h (CDKN1A, BAX and DDB2). To our knowledge, this is a novel study, which uses whole blood collected from patients treated with a radiopharmaceutical, to characterize biomarkers that may be useful for biodosimetry. Our data indicate that transcripts, which have been previously identified as biomarkers of external exposures in ex vivo whole blood and in vivo radiotherapy patients, are also good early indicators of internal exposure. However, for internal sources of radiation, the biokinetics and physical decay of the radionuclide strongly influence the gene expression.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

LANDSAT-4 MSS and TM Spectral Class Comparison and Coherent Noise Analysis

A detailed spectral analysis is conducted of thematic mapper and MSS data for an area near Des Moines, Iowa. Data are utilized from 7 blocks distributed throughout the area which included agricultural, forest, suburan, urban, and water scene types. The blocks are processed using a clustering algorithm to produce up to 18 cluster groupings for each block. Each cluster class is then identified with a ground-cover class using aerial photography and maps of the area. The clusters from each of the 7 blocks are inspected with regard to separability, mean, and variances. The separability measure used in the transformed divergence function or processor measures the statistical distance between classes based on class means and covariance matrices. The measure has a maximum value of 2,000 and the minimum of 0. Spectrally, very close classes will typically have values as low as 50 to 500.

Anuta, P. E.↗