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DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying air quality co-benefits to industrial decarbonization: the local Air Emissions Tracking Atlas

Many decarbonization technologies have the added co-benefit of reducing short-lived climate pollutants, such as particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), creating a unique opportunity for identifying strategies that promote both climate change solutions and opportunities for air quality improvement. However, stakeholders and decision-makers may struggle to quantify how these co-benefits will impact public health for the communities most affected by industrial air pollution. To address this problem, the LOCal Air Emissions Tracking Atlas (LOCAETA) fills a data availability and analysis gap by providing estimated air quality benefits from industrial decarbonization options, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). These co-benefits are calculated using an algorithm that connects disparate datasets that separately report greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants at U.S. industrial facilities. Version 1.0 of LOCAETA displays the estimated primary PM 2.5 emission reduction co-benefits from additional pretreatment equipment for CCS on industrial and power facilities across the state of Louisiana, as well as the potential for VOC and NH 3 generation. The emission reductions are presented in the tool alongside facility pollutant emissions information and relevant air quality, environmental, demographic, and public health datasets, such as air toxics cancer risk, satellite and in situ pollutant measurements, and population vulnerability metrics. LOCAETA enables regulators, policymakers, environmental justice communities, and industrial and commercial users to compare and contrast quantifiable public health benefits due to air quality impacts from various climate change mitigation strategies using a free and publicly-available tool. Additional pollutant reductions can be calculated using the same methodology and will be available in future versions of the tool.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Editorial: Water supply sustainability and challenges in Asian megadeltas under global change

Globally, riverine deltas comprise barely 1% of land area, but they support the livelihoods of more than 500 million people (Moorhouse et al., 2021). The Asian megadeltas (e.g., Indus, Bengal, Mekong, Red River, and Yangtze) and their riverine floodplains are the most dynamic economic and environmental systems in the world. These low-lying coastal landforms support surface water bodies and highly productive aquifer systems. However, water resources of the Asian megadeltas are extremely vulnerable to geogenic (e.g., arsenic) and anthropogenic (e.g., bacteria) contamination, increased water salinisation from rising sea levels (Figure 1), and chemicals (e.g., fertilizers, pesticides) from land-use practices (Mukherjee et al., 2024) – all of which are threatening the sustainability of water supply and food security in the region. This Research Topic collection features five original articles that explore water chemistry including arsenic and bacteriological contamination, water salinisation, water-energy-food nexus in irrigated agriculture, and groundwater depletion resulting from irrigation, rapid urbanization, and climate change. Although the Research Topic collection does not include case studies from all the Asian Megadeltas shown in Figure 1, the relevance of multi-hazard driven water risks to all deltaic and river floodplain environments around the world is well-illustrated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Public values failure associated with Hurricane Ian power outages

Power outages from extreme weather events can diminish community resilience, making it difficult for the areas impacted to bounce back after such events. For socially vulnerable populations, the frequency and duration of power outages can be even more severe. Governments have an obligation to protect public values, or those values that are most fundamental to society, which includes equitable resilience. Using Jørgensen and Bozeman's inventory of public values, this manuscript explores how power outages from extreme weather events create public values failures. More specifically, the manuscript evaluates intraorganizational aspects of public administration during power outages in Florida during Hurricane Ian in 2022. Framing power outages as a public values failure may motivate greater time and effort toward improving equitable access to more resilient power systems.

Entress, Rebecca M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Long Island’s Extreme Precipitation and Its Relationship to Tropical Cyclones

Since extreme precipitation impacts society on small scales (i.e., a few kilometers and smaller, it is worthwhile to explore extreme precipitation trends in localized regions, such as Long Island (LI), New York. Its coastal location makes it vulnerable to various extreme events, such as tropical cyclones (TCs). This work aimed to quantify the extreme precipitation events on LI that are caused by TCs, as well as the percentage of TCs passing close to LI that cause extreme precipitation events. Both gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation datasets of varying resolutions (DAYMET, IMERG, and CPC) were used to understand the impact of dataset selection. Results are shown for the common time period of 2001–2020, as well as the full time periods of each dataset. DAYMET shows the highest percentage of extreme precipitation events linked to TCs for 2001–2020 (a maximum of 7.2%) and the highest number of TCs that caused extreme precipitation events (36.5%), with IMERG showing similar results. For the full and common time periods, the highest percentage of extreme precipitation events caused by TCs was found in eastern LI. TC-related extreme precipitation averaged over LI varied year to year, and amounts were dependent on the resolution of the observational dataset, but most datasets showed an increasing trend in the last 19 years that is larger than the trend in mean precipitation. Current infrastructure in the region is likely inadequately prepared for future impacts from TC-related extreme precipitation events in such a population-dense region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Applying Deep Learning for Wildfire Identification: Economical and Accessible Solutions Leveraging Small Datasets

Wildfires significantly impact human health, air quality, visibility, weather, and climate change and cause substantial economic losses. While state and county-operated air quality monitors provide critical insights during wildfires, they are not available in all regions. This highlights the need for affordable, accessible tools that allow the general public to assess air quality impacts. In this study, we apply machine learning with deep neural networks to diagnose air quality rapidly from sky images taken at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, WA, USA. Using a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework, we trained a deep learning model to classify air quality indices based on sky images. By leveraging transfer learning, our approach fine-tunes a pre-trained model on a small dataset of sky images, significantly reducing training time while maintaining high accuracy. Our results demonstrate the potential of deep learning to provide rapid air quality diagnostics during wildfire episodes, offering early warnings to the public and enabling timely mitigation strategies, particularly for vulnerable populations. Additionally, we show that lower respiratory infections pose the highest health risk during acute smoke exposures. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) from wildfire particles further exacerbate health risks by triggering inflammation and other adverse effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Circulating Tumour Cell Numbers Correlate with Platelet Count and Circulating Lymphocyte Subsets in Men with Advanced Prostate Cancer: Data from the ExPeCT Clinical Trial (CTRIAL-IE 15-21)

Interactions between circulating tumour cells (CTCs) and platelets are thought to inhibit natural killer(NK)-cell-induced lysis. We attempted to correlate CTC numbers in men with advanced prostate cancer with platelet counts and circulating lymphocyte numbers. Sixty-one ExPeCT trial participants, divided into overweight/obese and normal weight groups on the basis of a BMI ≥ 25 or <25, were randomized to participate or not in a six-month exercise programme. Blood samples at randomization, and at three and six months, were subjected to ScreenCell filtration, circulating platelet counts were obtained, and flow cytometry was performed on a subset of samples (n = 29). CTC count positively correlated with absolute total lymphocyte count (r 2 = 0.1709, p = 0.0258) and NK-cell count (r 2 = 0.49, p < 0.0001). There was also a positive correlation between platelet count and CTC count (r 2 = 0.094, p = 0.0001). Correlation was also demonstrated within the overweight/obese group (n = 123, p < 0.0001), the non-exercise group (n = 79, p = 0.001) and blood draw samples lacking platelet cloaking (n = 128, p < 0.0001). By flow cytometry, blood samples from the exercise group (n = 15) had a higher proportion of CD3+ T-lymphocytes (p = 0.0003) and lower proportions of B-lymphocytes (p = 0.0264) and NK-cells (p = 0.015) than the non-exercise group (n = 14). These findings suggest that CTCs engage in complex interactions with the coagulation cascade and innate immune system during intravascular transit, and they present an attractive target for directed therapy at a vulnerable stage in metastasis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Systemic Drivers of Electric-Grid-Caused Catastrophic Wildfires: Implications for Resilience in the United States

Wildfires are projected to increase in severity and frequency due to climate change, and the electric grid is both a cause of wildfires and is vulnerable to wildfires. Equipment from the electric grid accounts for 10% of fires burned in California and 3% of fires nationally. Recent catastrophic wildfires, such as the Lahaina Fire, Camp Fire, Marshall Fire, and Smokehouse Creek fires, were all started by electrical equipment and show how devastating these events can be because they threaten lives and structures. Vegetation structure, weather and winds, climate and vegetation response, land use, and human activities all impact the likelihood of severe wildfires. We explore the relationship between the built environment, electric grid infrastructure specifically, and its role in causing catastrophic wildfires to find lessons learned for increasing resilience. Electric grid utility companies currently employ multiple methods to mitigate fire, including (1) early detection, (2) grid hardening, (3) vegetation management, and (4) pre-emptive shutoffs. Utility companies need to consider the conditions for wildfire and the impact that each mitigation strategy has on drivers of wildfire behavior, as a single solution will not be adequate. Utility companies need to work with stakeholders to develop a holistic strategy to reduce ignition likelihood and spread likelihood to reduce catastrophic wildfires and improve resiliency.

Eagleston, Holly (ORCID:0000000178175116)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Entropy of the Quantum–Classical Interface: A Potential Metric for Security

Hybrid quantum–classical systems are emerging as key platforms in quantum computing, sensing, and communication technologies, but the quantum–classical interface (QCI)—the boundary enabling these systems—introduces unique and largely unexplored security vulnerabilities. This position paper proposes using entropy-based metrics to monitor and enhance security, specifically at the QCI. We present a theoretical security outline that leverages well-established information-theoretic entropy measures, such as Shannon entropy, von Neumann entropy, and quantum relative entropy, to detect anomalous behaviors and potential breaches at the QCI. By linking entropy fluctuations to scenarios of practical relevance—including quantum key distribution, quantum sensing, and hybrid control systems—we promote the potential value and applicability of entropy-based security monitoring. While explicitly acknowledging practical limitations and theoretical assumptions, we argue that entropy-based metrics provide a complementary approach to existing security methods, inviting further empirical studies and theoretical refinements that can strengthen future quantum technologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

StructuredFuzzer: Fuzzing Structured Text-Based Control Logic Applications

Rigorous testing methods are essential for ensuring the security and reliability of industrial controller software. Fuzzing, a technique that automatically discovers software bugs, has also proven effective in finding software vulnerabilities. Unsurprisingly, fuzzing has been applied to a wide range of platforms, including programmable logic controllers (PLCs). However, current approaches, such as coverage-guided evolutionary fuzzing implemented in the popular fuzzer American Fuzzy Lop Plus Plus (AFL++), are often inadequate for finding logical errors and bugs in PLC control logic applications. They primarily target generic programming languages like C/C++, Java, and Python, and do not consider the unique characteristics and behaviors of PLCs, which are often programmed using specialized programming languages like Structured Text (ST). Furthermore, these fuzzers are ill suited to deal with complex input structures encapsulated in ST, as they are not specifically designed to generate appropriate input sequences. This renders the application of traditional fuzzing techniques less efficient on these platforms. To address this issue, this paper presents a fuzzing framework designed explicitly for PLC software to discover logic bugs in applications written in ST specified by the IEC 61131-3 standard. The proposed framework incorporates a custom-tailored PLC runtime and a fuzzer designed for the purpose. We demonstrate its effectiveness by fuzzing a collection of ST programs that were crafted for evaluation purposes. We compare the performance against a popular fuzzer, namely, AFL++. The proposed fuzzing framework demonstrated its capabilities in our experiments, successfully detecting logic bugs in the tested PLC control logic applications written in ST. On average, it was at least 83 times faster than AFL++, and in certain cases, for example, it was more than 23,000 times faster.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Trust-Based Detection and Mitigation of Cyber Attacks in Distributed Cooperative Control of Islanded AC Microgrids

In this study, we address the challenge of detecting and mitigating cyber attacks in the distributed cooperative control of islanded AC microgrids, with a particular focus on detecting False Data Injection Attacks (FDIAs), a significant threat to the Smart Grid (SG). The SG integrates traditional power systems with communication networks, creating a complex system with numerous vulnerable links, making it a prime target for cyber attacks. These attacks can lead to the disclosure of private data, control network failures, and even blackouts. Unlike machine learning-based approaches that require extensive datasets and mathematical models dependent on accurate system modeling, our method is free from such dependencies. To enhance the microgrid’s resilience against these threats, we propose a resilient control algorithm by introducing a novel trustworthiness parameter into the traditional cooperative control algorithm. Our method evaluates the trustworthiness of distributed energy resources (DERs) based on their voltage measurements and exchanged information, using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to dynamically adjust control actions. We validated our approach through simulations on both the IEEE-34 bus feeder system with eight DERs and a larger microgrid with twenty-two DERs. The results demonstrated a detection accuracy of around 100%, with millisecond range mitigation time, ensuring rapid system recovery. Additionally, our method improved system stability by up to almost 100% under attack scenarios, showcasing its effectiveness in promptly detecting attacks and maintaining system resilience. These findings highlight the potential of our approach to enhance the security and stability of microgrid systems in the face of cyber threats.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2024

Convex Relaxations of Maximal Load Delivery for Multi-Contingency Analysis of Joint Electric Power and Natural Gas Transmission Networks

Recent increases in gas-fired power generation have engendered increased interdependencies between natural gas and power transmission systems. These interdependencies have amplified existing vulnerabilities in gas and power grids, where disruptions can require the curtailment of load in one or both systems. Although typically operated independently, coordination of these systems during severe disruptions can allow for targeted delivery to lifeline services, including gas delivery for residential heating and power delivery for critical facilities. To address the challenge of estimating maximum joint network capacities under such disruptions, we consider the task of determining feasible steady-state operating points for severely damaged systems while ensuring the maximal delivery of gas and power loads simultaneously, represented mathematically as the nonconvex joint Maximal Load Delivery (MLD) problem. To increase its tractability, we present a mixed-integer convex relaxation of the MLD problem. Then, to demonstrate the relaxation’s effectiveness in determining bounds on network capacities, exact and relaxed MLD formulations are compared across various multi-contingency scenarios on nine joint networks ranging in size from 25 to 1191 nodes. The relaxation-based methodology is observed to accurately and efficiently estimate the impacts of severe joint network disruptions, often converging to the relaxed MLD problem’s globally optimal solution within ten seconds.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time Synchronization Techniques in the Modern Smart Grid: A Comprehensive Survey

In modern smart grids, accurate and synchronized time signals are essential for effective monitoring, protection, and control. Various time synchronization methods exist, each tailored to specific application needs. Widely adopted solutions, such as GPS, however, are vulnerable to challenges such as signal loss and cyber-attacks, underscoring the need for reliable backup or supplementary solutions. This paper examines the timing requirements across different power grid applications and provides a comprehensive review of available time synchronization mechanisms. Through a comparative analysis of timing methods based on accuracy, flexibility, reliability, and security, this study offers insights to guide the selection of optimal solutions for seamless grid integration.

comparison↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recovery of Forest Structure Following Large-Scale Windthrows in the Northwestern Amazon

The dynamics of forest recovery after windthrows (i.e., broken or uprooted trees by wind) are poorly understood in tropical forests. The Northwestern Amazon (NWA) is characterized by a higher occurrence of windthrows, greater rainfall, and higher annual tree mortality rates (~2%) than the Central Amazon (CA). We combined forest inventory data from three sites in the Iquitos region of Peru, with recovery periods spanning 2, 12, and 22 years following windthrow events. Study sites and sampling areas were selected by assessing the windthrow severity using remote sensing. At each site, we recorded all trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 10 cm along transects, capturing the range of windthrow severity from old-growth to highly disturbed (mortality > 60%) forest. Across all damage classes, tree density and basal area recovered to >90% of the old-growth values after 20 years. Aboveground biomass (AGB) in old-growth forest was 380 (±156) Mg ha -1 . In extremely disturbed areas, AGB was still reduced to 163 (±68) Mg ha -1 after 2 years and 323 (± 139) Mg ha -1 after 12 years. This recovery rate is ~50% faster than that reported for Central Amazon forests. The faster recovery of forest structure in our study region may be a function of its higher productivity and adaptability to more frequent and severe windthrows. These varying rates of recovery highlight the importance of extreme wind and rainfall on shaping gradients of forest structure in the Amazon, and the different vulnerabilities of these forests to natural disturbances whose severity and frequency are being altered by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Defining and Measuring Forest Dependence in the United States: Operationalization and Sensitivity Analysis

This manuscript helps bridge a gap between theoretical work that advocates for a broad view of forest dependence, and empirical work that has focused narrowly on economic measures. Background: Forest dependence has been widely recognized as a valuable concept for understanding human communities’ well-being and vulnerability to shocks and changes. Past theoretical literature has highlighted the importance of recognizing various types of dependence—environmental, economic, and social—yet past empirical literature on the topic in the United States has almost exclusively relied on measures of economic dependence such as employment and earnings from the traditional forest products sector. Objective and Methods: As a first step to bridge the gap between the theoretical and empirical, we reviewed the existing, publicly available, reliable, wall-to-wall data sources to identify alternate proxy measures for forest dependence. Data availability made the analysis feasible only at the county level—the administrative subdivisions of the state—or higher. Results and Conclusions: We created environmental, economic, and social criteria based on threshold levels of the following proxy variables: forest area, earnings, employment, and indigenous population. Using these criteria, we identified 524 counties to be potentially forest-dependent of 3140 total counties in the United States. The largest concentration was in the Pacific Northwest and Southeast regions, and a higher proportion were non-metro counties than metro. Varying the threshold levels significantly changes the number of counties identified but does not alter the overall geographic trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Long-Term Persistence of Three Microbial Wildfire Biomarkers in Forest Soils

Long-term monitoring of microbial communities in the rhizosphere of post-fire forests is currently one of the key knowledge gaps. Knowing the time scale of the effects is indispensable to aiding post-fire recovery in vulnerable woodlands, including holm oak forests, that are subjected to a Mediterranean climate, as is the case with forests that are found in protected areas such as the Sierra Nevada National and Natural Park in southeastern Spain. We took rhizosphere soil samples from burned and unburned holm oak trees approximately 3, 6, and 9 years after the 2005 fire that devastated almost 3500 ha in southeastern Spain. We observed that the prokaryotic communities are recovering but have not yet reached the conditions observed in the unburned forest. A common denominator between this fire and other fires is the long-term persistence of three ecosystem recovery biomarkers—specifically, higher proportions of the genera Arthrobacter, Blastococcus, and Massilia in soil microbial communities after a forest fire. These pyrophilous microbes possess remarkable resilience against adverse conditions, exhibiting traits such as xerotolerance, nitrogen mineralization, degradation of aromatic compounds, and copiotrophy in favorable conditions. Furthermore, these biomarkers thrive in alkaline environments, which persist over the long term following forest fires. The relative abundance of these biomarkers showed a decreasing trend over time, but they were still far from the values of the control condition. In conclusion, a decade does not seem to be enough for the complete recovery of the prokaryotic communities in this Mediterranean ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microbial Community Structure and Ecological Networks during Simulation of Diatom Sinking

Microbial-mediated utilization of particulate organic matter (POM) during its downward transport from the surface to the deep ocean constitutes a critical component of the global ocean carbon cycle. However, it remains unclear as to how high hydrostatic pressure (HHP) and low temperature (LT) with the sinking particles affects community structure and network interactions of the particle-attached microorganisms (PAM) and those free-living microorganisms (FLM) in the surrounding water. In this study, we investigated microbial succession and network interactions in experiments simulating POM sinking in the ocean. Diatom-derived 13C- and 12C-labeled POM were used to incubate surface water microbial communities from the East China Sea (ECS) under pressure (temperature) of 0.1 (25 °C), 20 (4 °C), and 40 (4 °C) MPa (megapascal). Our results show that the diversity and species richness of the PAM and FLM communities decreased significantly with HHP and LT. Microbial community analysis indicated an increase in the relative abundance of Bacteroidetes at high pressure (40 MPa), mostly at the expense of Gammaproteobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, and Gracilibacteria at atmospheric pressure. Hydrostatic pressure and temperature affected lifestyle preferences between particle-attached (PA) and free-living (FL) microbes. Ecological network analysis showed that HHP and LT enhanced microbial network interactions and resulted in higher vulnerability to networks of the PAM communities and more resilience of those of the FLM communities. Most interestingly, the PAM communities occupied most of the module hubs of the networks, whereas the FLM communities mainly served as connectors of the modules, suggesting their different ecological roles of the two groups of microbes. These results provided novel insights into how HHP and LT affected microbial community dynamics, ecological networks during POM sinking, and the implications for carbon cycling in the ocean.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Remote Sensing-Informed Zonation for Understanding Snow, Plant and Soil Moisture Dynamics within a Mountain Ecosystem

In the headwater catchments of the Rocky Mountains, plant productivity and its dynamics are largely dependent upon water availability, which is influenced by changing snowmelt dynamics associated with climate change. Understanding and quantifying the interactions between snow, plants and soil moisture is challenging, since these interactions are highly heterogeneous in mountainous terrain, particularly as they are influenced by microtopography within a hillslope. Recent advances in satellite remote sensing have created an opportunity for monitoring snow and plant dynamics at high spatiotemporal resolutions that can capture microtopographic effects. In this study, we investigate the relationships among topography, snowmelt, soil moisture and plant dynamics in the East River watershed, Crested Butte, Colorado, based on a time series of 3-meter resolution PlanetScope normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images. To make use of a large volume of high-resolution time-lapse images (17 images total), we use unsupervised machine learning methods to reduce the dimensionality of the time lapse images by identifying spatial zones that have characteristic NDVI time series. We hypothesize that each zone represents a set of similar snowmelt and plant dynamics that differ from other identified zones and that these zones are associated with key topographic features, plant species and soil moisture. We compare different distance measures (Ward and complete linkage) to understand the effects of their influence on the zonation map. Results show that the identified zones are associated with particular microtopographic features; highly productive zones are associated with low slopes and high topographic wetness index, in contrast with zones of low productivity, which are associated with high slopes and low topographic wetness index. The zones also correspond to particular plant species distributions; higher forb coverage is associated with zones characterized by higher peak productivity combined with rapid senescence in low moisture conditions, while higher sagebrush coverage is associated with low productivity and similar senescence patterns between high and low moisture conditions. In addition, soil moisture probe and sensor data confirm that each zone has a unique soil moisture distribution. This cluster-based analysis can tractably analyze high-resolution time-lapse images to examine plant-soil-snow interactions, guide sampling and sensor placements and identify areas likely vulnerable to ecological change in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning for Automated Detection and Identification of Migrating American Eel Anguilla rostrata from Imaging Sonar Data

Adult American eels (Anguilla rostrata) are vulnerable to hydropower turbine mortality during outmigration from growth habitat in inland waters to the ocean where they spawn. Imaging sonar is a reliable and proven technology for monitoring of fish passage and migration; however, there is no efficient automated method for eel detection. We designed a deep learning model for automated detection of adult American eels from sonar data. The method employs convolution neural network (CNN) to distinguish between 14 images of eels and non-eel objects. Prior to image classification with CNN, background subtraction and wavelet denoising were applied to enhance sonar images. The CNN model was first trained and tested on data obtained from a laboratory experiment, which yielded overall accuracies of >98% for image-based classification. Then, the model was trained and tested on field data that were obtained near the Iroquois Dam located on the St. Lawrence River; the accuracy achieved was commensurate with that of human experts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗