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At least 1,639 records · Page 91

Russia's Conventional Precision Strike Capabilities, Regional Crises, and Nuclear Thresholds

The potential for war between Russia and the West has returned after a long hiatus, despite the many effor ts of the United States and its NATO allies to remake the relationship with Russia by putting it on a much more cooperative footing. A central question for the West is what role nuclear escalation by Russia might play in such a confl ict. It is common today to hear Western experts argue that Russia’s nuclear threshold has fallen—and that it will rise again as Russia’s modernization of its general purpose forces plays out in coming years. A close examination of this topic points to a different set of conclusions. Russia’s nuclear threshold has not so much fallen as changed, becoming more fl uid and less predictable. The modernization that will matter to Russia’s future nuclear threshold is not the modernization of the general purpose forces but the newly diversifi ed strategic toolkit, which includes multiple new non-nuclear tools. Western deterrence strategies must adapt to a circumstance that appears somewhat similar to Cold War challenges but is in fact substantially different.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Microgrid Analysis Tools Summary

The over-arching goal of the Alaska Microgrid Partnership is to reduce the use of total imported fuel into communities to secure all energy services by at least 50% in Alaska's remote microgrids without increasing system life cycle costs while also improving overall system reliability, security, and resilience. One goal of the Alaska Microgrid Partnership is to investigate whether a combination of energy efficiency and high-contribution (from renewable energy) power systems can reduce total imported energy usage by 50% while reducing life cycle costs and improving reliability and resiliency. This presentation provides an overview of the following four renewable energy optimization tools. Information is from respective tool websites, tool developers, and author experience. Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) Microgrid Design Toolkit (MDT) Renewable Energy Optimization (REopt) Tool Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables (HOMER).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Risk Evaluation for Identification and Intervention in Dual Use Research of Concern (DURC) for International Biological R&D Activity

This report summarizes the work performed as part of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development project focused on evaluating and mitigating risk associated with biological dual use research of concern. The academic and scientific community has identified the funding stage as the appropriate place to intervene and mitigate risk, so the framework developed here uses a portfolio-level approach and balances biosafety and biosecurity risks, anticipated project benefits, and available mitigations to identify the best available investment strategies subject to cost constraints. The modeling toolkit was designed for decision analysis for dual use research of concern, but is flexible enough to support a wide variety of portfolio-level funding decisions where risk/benefit tradeoffs are involved. Two mathematical optimization models with two solution methods are included to accommodate stakeholders with varying levels of certainty about priorities between metrics. An example case study is presented.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Industrial Scale Demonstration of Smart Manufacturing, Achieving Transformational Energy Productivity Gains

While many U.S. manufacturing operations utilize optimization for individual unit processes, smart manufacturing (SM) systems that integrate manufacturing intelligence in real time across an entire production operation are rare in large companies and virtually nonexistent in smaller organizations. One example of an area where SM systems can be applied is in the management of waste heat. A smart system that not only seeks to recover waste heat, but also to use energy more efficiently, is a more cost-effective approach because energy use, waste energy loss and product output are optimized together. The overall objective of this project was to develop an industry-accepted SM Platform that enables smart systems by accelerating and lowering the cost of development and implementation scales for use in diverse sets of manufacturing industry sectors, manufacturing operations and company sizes. Specifically, the project (1) designed and demonstrated the application of a prototype SM Platform for two diverse commercial test beds, (2) demonstrated at one and estimated for the other test bed the potential reduction in waste heat generation, and (3) worked with leading automation vendors to catalyze low-cost commercialization of the technology developed. The Smart Manufacturing Application and Data Platform (SM Platform) developed during this project is an innovative approach that marries IT virtualization technologies with operational data and modeling system requirements to construct a ready-to-go platform for enabling sensor – data – modeling – actuation systems, driven by real-time plant data and performance metrics. This SM Platform allows manufacturing organizations, regardless of their industry or size, to assemble new operational systems at a much lower cost, optimizing process knowledge and improving energy productivity by integrating with existing process control and automation systems. Also developed during this project is a methodology for developing energy productivity metrics that use real-time process information and provide comparisons for potential, practical, and actual performance, as well as examples and the methodology for provisioning of an Energy Dashboard that displays alternatives to optimize energy use within specific business contexts aimed at helping improve energy productivity and reduce emissions in U.S. manufacturing. The SM Platform designed utilizes current manufacturing, operational and IT industry standards. The platform can be used to expedite sensor – data – model – actuation system development and deployment in a cloud-based environment using a novel end-to-end workflow as a service capability that is already integrated with data connection, ingestion, and contextualization services. In addition, the methodology for development of energy productivity metrics and reusable application templates called Toolkits have been defined so that they can be tailored to a specific business situation. The project’s two test beds, one in a hydrogen production plant and the other in a forging, heat treatment, and machining operation, utilize sensor-driven modeling, measurement, and simulation systems. In these two test beds, the implementation of these as a comprehensive system has made it possible for energy productivity to be managed in real-time throughout the plant and enterprise using an energy dashboard. The development pathway to direct machine actuation was articulated. During the first year, the project team developed the most highly instrumented steam-methane reformer (SMR) in the U.S. using infrared cameras and thermocouples. Real-time data are streamed to high fidelity and reduced-order models for analysis. A high fidelity CFD model, parallelized in the SM Platform cloud environment, was demonstrated for operational use. This is the first real-time operational productivity system of a steam methane reformer using both high fidelity and data-driven models together in a real time situation to balance natural gas flow to the reformer tubes. An infrared camera system was developed and shown to outperform thermocouples in coverage, accuracy, reliability, and cost effectiveness for use in a high temperature, harsh environment. A forging, heat-treating, machining line operation test bed includes new instrumentation for data capture analysis, modeling, and simulation and will be integrated into SM Platform workflows so that business performance can be managed in real-time. Composable metrics were developed using the SM Platform to drive improvements in energy productivity, environmental performance, safety, asset management, costs, and overall operations. A major focus of the SM systems developed was optimization of energy productivity at the enterprise level, which resulted in reductions in waste heat generation for the two project test beds. Reductions in the waste heat generated will result in greater energy savings than will waste heat recovery due to inefficiencies in the heat transfer process. For the SMR test bed an efficiency improvement of 1 – 2% with a corresponding waste heat reduction of 5% were demonstrated. It should be noted that the test bed SMR unit had an efficiency of more than 90% as compared to 70 to 80% efficiencies of most SMR units. So implementation of similar SM systems at typical SMR units could yield more than 15 to 25% waste heat reductions. Similarly the forging, heat-treating, machining line operation test bed is a DOE AMO Platinum Level Superior Energy Performance plant with a much higher than typical overall operating efficiency. For this test bed heat integration using recuperators is estimated to result in fuel savings of 15.9% due to waste heat recovery compared to the base case without recuperators with negligible changes in part exit conditions. This results in an 18.9% energy efficiency improvement. The project team estimates that broad multi-sector adoption of the developed technology could reduce waste heat generation by an amount equivalent to 1.3% of total U.S. energy use. This waste heat reduction is associated with 69 million tons reduction in annual carbon dioxide emissions. Other potential benefits include reducing process times, solid and liquid wastes, environmental impacts, and water use. It is estimated that this investment has an anticipated payback period of less than one year in energy-intensive applications. The SM Platform could also reduce the costs of deploying SM systems by 50% in manufacturing operations. Commercialization of the SM Platform will require significant cross-industry collaboration and technology provider market changes. Steps taken toward commercialization included 1) analyzing savings from deployment of the SM Platform and 2) holding SM Platform workshops, webinars, and conferences with targeted individual industry segments, with a focus on small and medium-sized organizations. An upgraded community website has been established as a portal for accessing and distributing information. Most importantly, the SM platform enabling technology developed during this project and its commercialization will continue, evolve and expand under the Clean Energy Smart Manufacturing Innovation Institute (CESMII).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Milestone M1 Report: HBM2/3 Evaluation on Many-core CPU WBS 2.4, Milestone ECP-MT-1000

In HIHE01-1, "Evaluate a PathForward/Facilities memory-relevant performance study/analysis," we conducted a focused study on the performance differences between HBM2 and HBM3 as revealed through execution of representative benchmarks. We used measurements on an existing many-core system, Knight's Landing (KNL), to calibrate simulator settings, and then performed Structural Simulation Toolkit (SST) simulations of KNL-like CPUs that access future high bandwidth memories. This report documents our findings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fiscal Year 2017 Report on SCALE Maintenance and Development (Publicly Available)

Develop, deploy, and support a quality-assured computational toolkit that advances the state of the art and exemplifies ease of use in a scalable architecture beginning with fundamental physical data and providing research, production, and licensing calculations for current and emerging nuclear modeling and simulation needs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Code Improvements for FY2016

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analysis of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced reactors. This report summarizes ongoing tasks to modernize the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 code system to improve internal data management, update several other code modules, and add new features. Code modernization activities focused on eliminating legacy data management in the balance-of-plant module, which was the only module that still used non-portable data allocation. Code extensions include the development of a new axial expansion model that can accurately account for non-uniform or heterogeneous fuel compositions. The most significant accomplishment is the addition of uncertainty quantification capabilities for transient simulations using the Dakota toolkit from Sandia National Laboratory. The motivation for performing these updates stems from the relevance of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 to a number of U.S. Department of Energy programs as well as domestic and international collaborations. External collaborations have also produced improvements in the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 code, and these are summarized in this report. SAS4A/SASSYS-1 has a growing user base that continues to strengthen the promotion of advanced reactor concepts such as sodium cooled fast reactors. Additional users will help solidify DOE’s leadership role in fast reactor safety both domestically and in international collaborations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodology: Development of Beta 1.0 MASTODON Toolset

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States, but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the plant elements and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms. Development of the next generation tools and methods for external events PRA is ongoing under the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) technical pathway. The RISMC toolkit development centers on integration of the tools and methods under a common framework, MOOSE. These tools and methods make use of existing and newly developed tools and methods, coupled with the experience and data gained in the past decades, to define and analyze more realistic risk assessment models. Specific focus in this report is on the capability to model seismic risk using advanced SPRA methods. Over the last year, significant capability has been added to Mastodon to simulate 3-D wave passage effects through nonlinear soil. Verification has demonstrated the capability of Mastodon to model wave passage effects in 1-D, 2-D, and 3-D. Methods have been developed to incorporate probabilistic floor response capabilities. Additional capability will be added to Mastodon over the next year to implement a robust gapping and sliding element for cyclic shaking, web-based verification and user manuals, stochastic finite elements, and frequency independent damping. Verification of added capabilities has occured in parallel with code writing activities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Opal: A Centralized Memory Manager for Investigating Disaggregated Memory Systems

Many modern applications have memory footprints that are increasingly large, driving system memory capacities higher and higher. Moreover, these systems are often organized where the bulk of the memory is collocated with the compute capability, which necessitates the need for message passing APIs to facilitate information sharing between compute nodes. Due to the diversity of applications that must run on High-Performance Computing (HPC) systems, the memory utilization can fluctuate wildly from one application to another. And, because memory is located in the node, maintenance can become problematic because each node must be taken offline and upgraded individually. To address these issues, vendors are exploring disaggregated, memory-centric, systems. In this type of organization, there are discrete nodes, reserved solely for memory, which are shared across many compute nodes. Due to their capacity, low-power, and non-volatility, Non-Volatile Memories (NVMs) are ideal candidates for these memory nodes. This report discusses a new component for the Structural Simulation Toolkit (SST), Opal, that can be used to study the impact of using NVMs in a disaggregated system in terms of performance, security, and memory management. This page intentionally left blank.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Shungnak Mini-grid Business Case

A business case analysis was performed for the Village of Shungnak. The business case analysis evaluated the optimal case from the technical analysis performed by the Sandia National Laboratory using Microgrid Design Toolkit (MDT). The optimal case adds a 500 kW wind plant, 100 kW of solar photovoltaics (PV), 100 kW diesel and 46 kW of electric thermal stoves. The project cost 4.3 million. The direct cost of electricity would likely decline from 0.63/kWh to 0.55/kWh. The direct costs don’t include administrative and distribution costs. The addition of the renewable resources reduced diesel fuel consumption by more than 74% or approximately 96,000 gallons. The reduction in cost provides an opportunity for Alaska Village Electric Cooperative to obtain financing through grants and loans to install renewable energy and reduce diesel fuel consumption to the cooperative.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Probabilistic Economic Valuation of Safety Margin Management

The goal of this project was to explore a new methodology for evaluation of potential safety margin upgrades to add a new instrument to the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit. To this end, the RAVEN code developed by the Idaho National Laboratory was used to perform a cost-benefit analysis of several potential power plant safety upgrades to compare the material cost of the upgrades with the probabilistic benefit of avoiding accident scenario consequences to find the most cost-effective safety upgrades. By coupling RAVEN to MELCOR to drive Monte-Carlo method stochastic parameter analysis and using data from existing nuclear codes, as well as MELCOR’s radionuclide relocation tracking capabilities, the radionuclide release source term activity in a severe accident scenario can be estimated. Severe Accident Mitigation upgrades were benchmarked against the Hardened Containment Ventilation upgrade mandated by the USNRC for Mk1 BWRs using dollars spent per Curie of release prevented as a metric by which to evaluate the economic efficacy of the upgrades. Additionally, Fault Tree/Event Tree-based analyses were performed to compare older methods of evaluation to the methodology pioneered in this work, and Monthly Operating Report (MORP) outage data was analyzed for insights into power plant outage optimization and reduction.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway Technical Program Plan

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of nuclear power plants (NPPs). As the current Light Water Reactor (LWR) NPPs age beyond 60 years, there are possibilities for increased frequency of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) degradations or failures that initiate safety-significant events, reduce existing accident mitigation capabilities, or create new failure modes. Plant designers commonly “over-design” portions of NPPs and provide robustness in the form of redundant and diverse engineered safety features to ensure that, even in the case of well-beyond design basis scenarios, public health and safety will be protected with a very high degree of assurance. This form of defense-in-depth is a reasoned response to uncertainties and is often referred to generically as “safety margin.” Historically, specific safety margin provisions have been formulated, primarily based on “engineering judgment.” The ability to better characterize (i.e., describe and quantify) safety margin is important to improved decision making about LWR design and long-term operation. A systematic approach to characterizing safety margins and the subsequent risk informed margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development (R&D) in the LWRS Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs (and concurrently support technological advances in nuclear reactor fuels and plant instrumentation and control systems), needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety, economics, and performance will become known. The purpose of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway R&D is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs over periods of extended plant operations. The goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method that is coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of risk-informed margin management strategies; (2) create an advanced RISMC Toolkit that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margins. The methods and tools provided by RISMC are essential to a comprehensive and integrated risk-informed margin management approach that supports effective preservation of margin for both active and passive SSCs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA/Aero User Manual - Version 4.50

SIERRA/Aero is a compressible fluid dynamics program intended to solve a wide variety compressible fluid flows including transonic and hypersonic problems. This document describes the commands for assembling a fluid model for analysis with this module, henceforth referred to simply as Aero for brevity. Aero is an application developed using the SIERRA Toolkit (STK). The intent of STK is to provide a set of tools for handling common tasks that programmers encounter when developing a code for numerical simulation. For example, components of STK provide field allocation and management, and parallel input/output of field and mesh data. These services also allow the development of coupled mechanics analysis software for a massively parallel computing environment. In the definitions of the commands that follow, the term Real_Max denotes the largest floating point value that can be represented on a given computer. Int_Max is the largest such integer value.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Uncertainty in master-equation-based rate coefficient calculations

Rate coefficients are key quantities in gas phase kinetics and can be determined theoretically via master equation (ME) calculations. Rate coefficients characterize how fast a certain chemical species reacts away due to collisions into a specific product. Some of these collisions are simply transferring energy between the colliding partners, in which case the initial chemical species can undergo a unimolecular reaction: dissociation or isomerization. Other collisions are reactive, and the colliding partners either exchange atoms, these are direct reactions, or form complexes that can themselves react further or get stabilized by deactivating collisions with a bath gas. The input of MEs are molecular parameters: geometries, energies, and frequencies determined from ab initio calculations. While the calculation of these rate coefficients using ab initio data is becoming routine in many cases, the determination of the uncertainties of the rate coefficients are often ignored, sometimes crudely assessed by varying independently just a few of the numerous parameters, and only occasionally studied in detail. In this study, molecular frequencies, barrier heights, well depths, and imaginary frequencies (needed to calculate quantum mechanical tunneling) were automatically perturbed in an uncorrelated fashion. Our Python tool, MEUQ, takes user requests to change all or specified well, barrier, or bimolecular product parameters for a reaction. We propagate the uncertainty in these input parameters and perform global sensitivity analysis in the rate coefficients for the ethyl + O 2 system using state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques via Python interface to UQ Toolkit (www . sandia.gov/uqtoolkit). A total of 10,000 sets of rate coefficients were collected after perturbing 240 molecular parameters. With our methodology, sensitive mechanistic steps can be revealed to a modeler in a straightforward manner for identification of significant and negligible influences in bimolecular reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Calibration of MAMBA and CRUD Sources Using Full-Core CTF+MAMBA

This report outlines a process for the deterministic calibration of MAMBA using the computational toolkit Dakota. The tools and processes for deterministic calibration have been built and are laid out in this report. While completing this milestone, issues emerged with MAMBA that resulted in delays. The consequences for these difficulties to the calibration process are briefly discussed. The report concludes with an outline of a path forward for Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration will be performed next year. This process was laid out by Benjamin Collins, Robert Salko, and Adam Hetzler.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SIERRA/Aero User Manual - Version 4.48

SIERRA/Aero is a compressible fluid dynamics program intended to solve a wide variety compressible fluid flows including transonic and hypersonic problems. This document describes the commands for assembling a fluid model for analysis with this module, henceforth referred to simply as Aero for brevity. Aero is an application developed using the SIERRA Toolkit (STK). The intent of STK is to provide a set of tools for handling common tasks that programmers encounter when developing a code for numerical simulation. For example, components of STK provide field allocation and management, and parallel input/output of field and mesh data. These services also allow the development of coupled mechanics analysis software for a massively parallel computing environment. In the definitions of the commands that follow, the term Real_Max denotes the largest floating point value that can be represented on a given computer. Int_Max is the largest such integer value.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Development of The PaR Tool: Modernization of the Planning and Routing Scripts

The placement of an efficient route for power lines is a poorly understood. Owners of the land are often divided about whether to allow their land to have a pole placed. A planning and routing toolkit allows for the people to allow and deny access to land then instantly see the route recalculate. The original planning and routing scripts were the original proof of concept, there was a series of problems that greatly hindered the functionality of the system. The PaR Tool a fully featured application replaced the proof of concept scripts and the speed of the system was increased by 254%. It is readily extensible and far easier to use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

PETSc Users Manual: Revision 3.10

This manual describes the use of PETSc for the numerical solution of partial differential equa-tions and related problems on high-performance computers. The Portable, Extensible Toolkit forScientific Computation (PETSc) is a suite of data structures and routines that provide the buildingblocks for the implementation of large-scale application codes on parallel (and serial) computers.PETSc uses the MPI standard for all message-passing communication.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗