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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Subjective Assessment of Initial and Mid-Term UAM Operations and the Impact on Air Traffic Controllers' Workload

The emergence of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) marks a new era of aviation that will be characterized by a shift in transportation dynamics marked by safe, efficient, and sustainable air travel within urban areas. Although UAM will provide significant advantages, increased air travel demand has the potential to impact air traffic controllers (ATCo) workload. Therefore, industry, government, and academia in the UAM ecosystem are actively working to overcome potential implementation challenges that include airspace integration and air traffic management. As part of this effort, researchers from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are studying the challenges associated with UAM operations’ interactions with air traffic control (ATC). The present research paper presents an analysis of subjective assessments to determine the usability and acceptability of airspace procedures under two different operating conditions – Initial and Mid-Term – and two different levels of UAM traffic. The completion of these investigations will be a steppingstone in supporting the successful implementation of UAM operations into the National Airspace System.

Urban Air Mobility, Air Traffic Control, Workload↗
NASA NTRS2024

Long-term effects of acute irradiation and isolation on crew age-matched mice

The future of space missions beyond low-Earth orbit presents exciting opportunities but may come with formidable health challenges. Astronauts face a unique combination of space stressors capable of exerting effects on the central nervous system (CNS) with possible sex-dependent differences. The interaction of these combined spaceflight stressors may induce oxidative stress, thereby altering brain integrity and behavioral performance. Understanding these changes is critical for safeguarding astronaut health and enabling successful exploration. By understanding the physiological responses to the combined effects of ionizing radiation (IR) and social isolation in the brain through immunohistochemistry (IHC), proteomics and cytokine expression analyses, we aim to identify CNS pathways ripe for countermeasure development to mitigate adverse brain changes with future deep space exploration. Here, we study the combined effects of simulated 5-ion galactic cosmic radiation (GCRsim) at acute dosage (5, 15, and 50 cGy) and social isolation on crew age-matched male and female mice at 124 days post-irradiation. We conducted analyses of hippocampal cytokine biomarkers and proteomic profiling on hippocampal lysates. Our findings reveal sex-specific regulation of hippocampal cytokines and proteomic profiles. Ongoing immunohistochemistry findings on the hippocampus will provide qualitative information regarding key protein expression and cellular changes such as microglial activation, blood brain barrier integrity, and neuroinflammation. With future plans for long-duration space missions, such as Mars exploration, understanding CNS changes over extended periods in mice can provide insights into potential long-term health impacts on astronauts. This project will provide us with valuable insights into sex-differences in neurobiological processes and disease mechanisms impacting men and women in space.

space radiation↗
NASA NTRS2024

Long-Term Groundwater Monitoring Report Industrial Area Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This report presents the 2023 groundwater sampling results from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Industrial Area (IA) Long-Term Monitoring (LTM) activities. Due to the project contract ending in 2023, this report presents one year of LTM activities instead of the two-year timeframe presented in previous reports. The NASA IA LTM Program includes the following 12 sites: - Ransom Road Landfill (RRLF) – Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 003 - Building M7-0505 Treatment Tank Area (M505) – SWMU 039 - Operations and Checkout Building (O&C) – SWMU 076 - Vertical Processing Facility (VPF) – SWMU 077 - Environmental Health Facility (EHF) – SWMU 079 - Kennedy Athletic, Recreation, and Social Park 1 (KARS Park 1) – SWMU 084 - Engineering Development Laboratory (EDL) – SWMU 085 - Launch Equipment Test Facility (LETF) – SWMU 091 - Mobil Service Station (MOBIL) – SWMU 093 - General Services Administration Seized Property (GSSP) – SWMU 095 - Space Station Processing Facility (SSPF) – SWMU 098 - Fuel Storage Area #1 Underground Storage Tank [Building 1044] (FSA1) – Potential Release Location (PRL) 157 Sampling events for the IA LTM Program are conducted seasonally during the dry and wet seasons, which occur in May and November, respectively. The sites in the NASA IA LTM Program are sampled on annual, biennial, or 5-year sampling frequencies based on historical trends. The current sampling frequencies for the NASA IA LTM sites are as follows: - FSA1 is sampled annually, alternating between wet and dry seasons. - GSSP is sampled annually during the wet season. - Seven sites are sampled biennially, alternating between the wet and dry seasons (RRLF, M505, O&C, VPF, LETF, MOBIL, and SSPF). - EHF and EDL are sampled biennially during the wet season. - KARS Park 1 is sampled once every 5 years.

remediation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Numerical Investigation of the Effect of Cooling Airflow inside High-Pressure Turbine using the Source Term Approach

In this study, the Open National Combustion code (OpenNCC) is applied to simulate the airflow inside the high-pressure turbine (HPT) of the energy efficient engine (EEE). The main objective of this study is to compare the characteristics of the HPT performance obtained by using three different approaches (Case 1: the realistic combustion products are considered at the HPT inlet, but the cooling airflows are not included, Case 2: the working fluid is assumed to be a single gas (i.e., air), and the cooling airflows are considered, Case 3: the cooling airflow and the combustion products at the HPT inlet are included). To mimic the cooling airflows at the HPT surface, we use the surface source team approach, in which we impose the source term at a specific area of a cooling airflow hole at the solid surfaces by specifying an injection angle, temperature, turbulent intensity, and mass flowrate of each cooling airflow. For the validation of the model, the data for the EEE model was obtained from the General Electric (GE) test campaign (RDG10), and the full scale warm-air rig test condition representing a test point close to the integrated core/low spool design condition was considered. This validation test was done using the stationary uniform inflow condition (i.e., the reported total temperature and total pressure). Secondly, we considered the Sea-Level Take-off (SLTO) engine condition and separately performed the combustor simulation to obtain a more realistic time-averaged, spatially-nonuniform HPT inflow condition. This work provides a better understanding the effect of the cooling airflow model with different assumptions on the HPT performance. It is found that using different working gas have a minor effect on the performance metric, however the presence of the cooling airflows significantly affects the HPT performance such as the turbine efficiency.

CFD Hot-streaks↗
NASA NTRS2024

Long-Term Trends in Aerosols, Low Clouds, and Large-scale Meteorology over the Western North Atlantic from 2003 to 2020

A continuous decrease of aerosol over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) on decadal timescales provides a long-term experiment to evaluate how other natural and anthropogenic processes affect the manifestation of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region. Furthermore, the WNAO is a natural laboratory with diverse aerosol sources, marine boundary layer clouds that are more variable than marine stratocumulus deck regions, and unique flow regimes set up by the Gulf Stream and semi-permanent Bermuda High. We investigate how satellite-retrieved macrophysical and microphysical properties of low clouds and the surface shortwave irradiance changed from 2003 to 2020, in tandem with this aerosol decrease. The decadal changes in large-scale meteorology relating to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are also examined. We find no significant changes in low-cloud fraction but a widespread reduction in low-cloud optical depth attributed to fewer and larger cloud droplets with almost no change in cloud liquid water path. Despite robust signals in low-cloud optical properties together with aerosol decrease, a corresponding increase in the surface shortwave irradiance trends, also called surface brightening, is lacking. This absence of brightening is potentially due to concomitant changes found in large-scale meteorology associated with NAO— a Bermuda High strengthening, sea surface warming, and atmospheric moistening— as well as an increase in high cloud fraction that can counteract the surface brightening. Ultimately, our findings suggest that spatial patterns in the decadal meteorological variability, likely set up by NAO, contribute more to the surface cloud radiative effect over the WNAO than aerosol-cloud interactions.

J Minnie Park↗
NASA NTRS2024

Launch Complex 39A, SWMU 008 2023 Long-Term Monitoring Report Kennedy Space Center, Florida

The 2023 Long-Term Monitoring (LTM) Report (LTMR) presents the annual and semi-annual groundwater monitoring results for Launch Complex 39A (LC39A), Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 008, at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The reporting period covered under this LTMR is from January to December 2023, and represents the first year of site-wide monitoring following Air Sparge (AS) system shutdown at the end of 2022. AS system operation at LC39A began operation in 2015. The AS system consisted of a total of 173 AS wells ranging in depth from 11 to 37 feet below land surface. The overall remedial objective for the AS Interim Measure was to actively decrease concentrations of COCs to less than their respective Florida Department of Environmental Protection Natural Attenuation Default Concentrations, so that LC39A can transition into an LTM program. This objective was achieved in 2022, with 2023 marking Year 1 of the LTM program to monitor the residual groundwater plume. VOC results indicate that COC concentrations have continued to decrease or stabilize, with no rebound observed since AS system shutdown. Vinyl chloride was the only COC detected above its GCTL, with the highest concentration detected at 8.0 μg/L. PFAS results detected 15 different PFAS compounds (out of 32 analyzed) between the six monitoring wells sampled. Two PFAS compounds, perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), currently have FDEP Provisional GCTLs of 70 nanograms per liter (ng/L). PFOS was detected in one of the six samples above the FDEP Provisional GCTL at a concentration of 200 ng/L. PFOA was not detected above the FDEP Provisional GCTL in any of the six samples. PFOS and PFOA also currently have United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) of 4 ng/L. PFOS was detected in all six samples above the USEPA MCL. PFOA was detected in three of the six samples above the USEPA MCL. Three other PFAS compounds, perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS), perfluoro-n-nonanoic acid (PFNA), and hexafluoropropylene oxide dimer acid (GenX), currently have USEPA MCLs of 10 ng/L. PFHxS, PFNA, and GenX were not detected at concentrations greater than their respective USEPA MCLs in any of the six wells. Additional PFAS sampling will occur as part of a PFAS Site Assessment to be conducted in the future. Based on Year 1 LC39A LTM results, recommendations for 2024 are to continue with the second year of LTM in 2024 with the same monitoring well network as Year 1 (18 wells). The three wells that were on a semi-annual schedule will transition to an annual schedule to align with the remaining wells. The next annual event is scheduled for May 2024. The three wells that were found to be inadvertently destroyed will be properly abandoned and a replacement well in the vicinity of former monitoring well 21ST-MW0030I will be installed. This new well will be added to the LTM sampling plan upon installation.

Deborah M. Wilson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Subjective Assessment of Initial and Mid-Term UAM Operations and the Impact on Air Traffic Controllers' Workload

The emergence of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) marks a new era of aviation that will be characterized by a shift in transportation dynamics marked by safe, efficient, and sustainable air travel within urban areas. Although UAM will provide significant advantages, increased air travel demand has the potential to impact air traffic controllers (ATCo) workload. Therefore, industry, government, and academia in the UAM ecosystem are actively working to overcome potential implementation challenges that include airspace integration and air traffic management. As part of this effort, researchers from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are studying the challenges associated with UAM operations’ interactions with air traffic control (ATC). The present research paper presents an analysis of subjective assessments to determine the usability and acceptability of airspace procedures under two different operating conditions – Initial and Mid-Term – and two different levels of UAM traffic. The completion of these investigations will be a steppingstone in supporting the successful implementation of UAM operations into the National Airspace System.

Urban Air Mobility↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Relative Motion for Short-Term Loitering in the Gateway NRHO

Numerous vehicles will visit Gateway throughout the expected mission lifetime, and much like Gateway, these vehicles will operate in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO). Short-term loitering strategies are explored for these vehicles. The objective of this analysis is to illuminate concepts that enable safe loitering, while considering the operational limitations to the design process. To highlight relative motion, a linear sensitivity analysis is applied. The linear approach offers an initial guess strategy for generating loiter architectures in the high-fidelity gravity model. Methods of constructing transfers between loitering regimes are explored.

Stephen T Scheuerle↗
NASA NTRS2024

Short-Term Elevated Temperature Mechanical Performance and Microstructure of A Niobium-Zirconium Alloy Produced via Laser Powder Bed Fusion In-Situ Alloying

Nb-1Zr is a readily fabricable, dispersion-strengthened niobium alloy with improved elevated temperature properties compared to commercially pure niobium. This low to moderate strength niobium alloy is desirable in thermal management systems for fission power and propulsion applications; however, pre-alloyed spherical feedstock for powder-based additive manufacturing processes is generally unavailable. Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) in-situ alloying of a Nb-1Zr chemistry was performed using a high-purity niobium feedstock coated with 1 wt% of zirconium-based ceramic compound nano-powders: ZrO 2 , ZrC, and ZrH 2 . The additively manufactured material was mechanically tested at elevated temperatures within a controlled environment in the as-built condition. For comparison, traditionally manufactured wrought feedstock was also tested within an identical environment. Examination of the materials’ microstructure and short-term elevated temperature mechanical response determined: in-situ alloying of spherical Nb powder feedstock with Zr-based ceramic nanoparticles can be successfully implemented; the ZrO 2 addition offered the greatest elevated temperature stability and strength but exhibited brittle behavior; the ZrC addition achieved a balance of room temperature ductility and elevated temperature strength; and the ZrH 2 -modified material had the lowest as-built interstitial content and showed high ductility with mechanical performance most similar to wrought Nb-1Zr.

Niobium Alloy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate Information and Lessons Learned from the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX), Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (NASA SPoRT), and the NASA Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES)

Climate resilience can emerge from a combination of (1) climate projections that enable future-oriented planning and (2) contemporary observations that can be used for adaptation in the face of realized climate. NASA is uniquely positioned to provide global climate projections and satellite-based observations to users who must take a global perspective on climate risk (e.g., supply chain managers). Here, we will share the capabilities and experiences of three NASA projects. The first project, the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX) provides two downscaled climate projections, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, a global 25 km resolution product, and NEX-DCP30-CMIP6, an 800 m resolution product covering the coterminous U.S. specifically designed for U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). NEX also offers land surface products that mirror the twice-daily products provided by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) but are derived from operational geostationary weather satellite data collected at 5-10 minutes intervals. The second project, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), was established in 2002 to transition unique NASA satellite products and capabilities to stakeholders to improve decision-making that benefits society. SPoRT provides products and capabilities derived from NASA observations and models to end users in government, academia, and the private sector. SPoRT translates NASA Earth science into actionable solutions reaching over 400 stakeholders across 80 organizations. Finally, the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is designed to facilitate regional-scale evaluations of climate models by providing standardized access to a vast and comprehensive set of observations, such as satellite, in-situ, and reanalyses, and modeling resources such as CMIP & CORDEX. These three projects form part of the core capabilities at the NASA Centers deliver climate information under the new NASA Earth Science to Action (ES2A) strategy.

NEX↗
NASA NTRS2023

Long-term 4.6 µm Variability in Brown Dwarfs and a New Technique for Identifying Brown Dwarf Binary Candidates

Using a sample of 361 nearby brown dwarfs, we have searched for 4.6 μm variability, indicative of large-scale rotational modulations or large-scale, long-term changes on timescales of over 10 yr. Our findings show no statistically significant variability in Spitzer's Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) channel 2 (ch2) or Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer W2 photometry. For Spitzer the ch2 1σ limits are ∼8 mmag for objects at 11.5 mag and ∼22 mmag for objects at 16 mag. This corresponds to no variability above 4.5% at 11.5 mag and 12.5% at 16 mag. We conclude that highly variable brown dwarfs, at least two previously published examples of which have been shown to have 4.6 μm variability above 80 mmag, are very rare. While analyzing the data, we also developed a new technique for identifying brown dwarf binary candidates in Spitzer data. We find that known binaries have IRAC ch2 point response function (PRF) flux measurements that are consistently dimmer than aperture flux measurements. We have identified 59 objects that exhibit such PRF versus aperture flux differences and are thus excellent binary brown dwarf candidates.

Hunter Brooks↗
NASA NTRS2024

Launch Complex 34, SWMU CC054 2023 DNAPL Source Zone Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring, Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring, and Hot Spot 6 Air Sparge System Annual Performance Monitoring and Phase Two Expansion Construction Completion Report Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida

This Annual Performance Monitoring Report (PMR) for the Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) Source Zone (DSZ), Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring (LTM), and Hot Spot 6 (HS 6) Air Sparge (AS) System presents the results of Year 14 operations and performance monitoring of the hydraulic containment (HC) Interim Measure (IM), details associated with construction and implementation of the HS 6 AS system expansion (Phase Two), and the results of operations and performance sampling of the HS 6 AS IM at Launch Complex 34 (LC34), located at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS), Florida. The timeframe for activities documented in this PMR extends from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024. LC34 has been designated Solid Waste Management Unit CC054 under the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program. The objective of the HC IM at LC34 is to contain the shallow and deep DSZ and surrounding dissolved-phase trichloroethene (TCE) high concentration plume via operation of a hydraulic containment system (HCS). The pre-IM design 300 micrograms per liter (μg/L) TCE groundwater contour was used to establish the deep zone capture area for deep recovery wells, and the shallow zone capture area was defined by the DSZ. The system began operating in 2010, and in 2015, the system was expanded to provide HC for areas within the 300 μg/L TCE groundwater isocontours of HS 3 and 4. In 2018 and 2019, an investigation was conducted to recharacterize the DSZ, which included investigating TCE mass in Layer 7. This data was subsequently used to optimize the pumping rates of the HCS and install additional recovery wells in Layer 7 to more adequately capture residual contaminant mass. The operational period for Year 14 of the HCS was from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024. Operational runtime for the system was 94 percent during Year 14, with downtime events attributed to planned maintenance, system repairs, and power outages. As of March 31, 2024, a total of 344,849,634 cumulative gallons of groundwater containing 94,656 pounds of chlorinated volatile organic compounds (CVOCs) have been removed by the HCS. During the reporting period covered under this report, the HCS recovered 31,176,393 gallons and approximately 6,319 pounds of CVOC mass. Total combined influent concentrations of TCE have decreased since startup from approximately 280,000 µg/L (January 2010) to 25,000 µg/L (March 2024). During the reporting period, all effluent concentrations from the HCS (aqueous and vapor) were below regulatory reporting limits, indicating the system continues to operate as intended. Performance monitoring was conducted in January 2024 within the DSZ to evaluate TCE contamination. Groundwater samples were collected via DPT at nine locations, consistent with previous events between 2017 and 2022. Full vertical profile sampling was completed at each DPT from 8 to 98 feet below land surface (bls), at 5-foot intervals. The DPT performance monitoring results are summarized in this PMR. The results revealed TCE remains at concentrations greater than 11,000 µg/L in the DSZ (1-percent solubility, indicative of DNAPL) at eight of the nine DPT locations and at depths ranging from 28 to 98 feet bls. An overall decreasing trend of TCE concentrations was observed in DPT samples during this reporting period, which is a reduction from the previous event (December 2022) and the peak event in December 2021, where TCE percentages appeared to increase in all depth zones because several recovery wells were turned off during the AS pilot study in the DSZ. The maximum TCE concentration in January 2024 was 1,600,000 µg/L in the 53 feet bls depth interval at DPT594 (previous maximum result in 2022 was 1,800,000 µg/L in the 48 feet bls depth interval at DPT599). This maximum concentration in the 53 feet bls depth interval is in the deep capture zone. During the January 2024 DPT event, the largest portion of TCE mass was observed in the 48 feet bls interval above/within Layer 4. This trend remains consistent with previous years and appears to indicate continued mass discharge from Layer 4 (fine-grained unit). In addition to DPT sampling, annual groundwater samples were collected from 11 deep monitoring wells in the DSZ area (Layers 7 and 8) in December 2023 to verify vertical and horizontal delineation. Three of the wells were also sampled biweekly to evaluate operations of recovery well RW21D (screened 86 to 106 feet bls), which was installed in January 2023. Of the Layer 7/8 monitoring sampled only annually, results were non-detect or less than groundwater cleanup target levels GCTLs in December 2023, with the exception of one well, IW45D2, which had a cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE), detection greater than the GCTL. Of the three wells sampled biweekly during the operational period, the well located closest to Layer 7 recovery well RW21D (IW44D2, screened 105 to 115 feet bls) had concentrations of TCE, cDCE and vinyl chloride (VC) greater than GCTLs throughout the operational period, but displayed a decreasing trend since the peak concentrations in September 2023. The maximum TCE concentration during this operational period was 190,000 µg/L at IW44D2 in September 2023, but reduced to 700 µg/L in March 2024, indicating the HCS is still effectively removing mass from the source area. Expansion of the HCS and addition of new recovery wells is ongoing and will continue to be evaluated as the groundwater recovery scheme is optimized. Details of the expansion and optimization will be provided in a future PMR. The HS 6 AS IM was initiated in 2018 with 160 AS wells and expanded in 2019 with another 140 AS wells. An additional expansion of the HS 6 AS IM was completed during the reporting period covered under this report and details of the construction implementation and startup of the expansion are detailed in Section III of this report. The new expansion, referred to as Phase Two, was implemented between August 17, 2022 and August 28, 2023, and included the installation of 190 air sparge wells to treat an additional 11.2 acres. The original configuration (referred to as Phase One) operated until Phase Two came online, then all but 52 AS wells were turned off so the components could be moved and utilized in the Phase Two area. The 52 AS wells that remain on are in a barrier configuration preventing contaminated groundwater from impacting the treated area. The HS 6 AS system (both Phase One and Two) operated normally during the reporting period covered under this report. Semi-annual performance monitoring of the Phase One configuration was conducted in April and November 2023, consistent with previous years. For the Phase Two configuration, 21 new monitoring wells were installed and sampled quarterly, with a baseline event in July 2023, and quarterly events in November 2023 and February 2024 summarized in this report. Semi-annual monitoring results collected in April and October 2023 show concentrations of contaminants of concern (cDCE, trans-1,2-dichloroethene, and VC) have decreased to less than GCTLs in nearly all wells and not impacting the surface water drainage canal, indicating the HS 6 IM continues to meet objectives. The baseline and quarterly sampling for the Phase Two configuration indicate generally decreasing concentrations in wells within and around the perimeter of the treatment area. At least two more quarters of monitoring will be conducted and once those results are evaluated a reduced the sampling frequency may be considered. Overall, the tasks associated with Year 14 operation of the HC IM and operation of the HS 6 AS IM were performed in accordance with recommendations included in the previous 2022 LC34 (Year 13) PMR. Evaluation of results from the HC IM and HS 6 IM show that these systems are operating as designed and meeting performance objectives.

groundwater remediation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Long-Term Health Risk Quantification

Astronauts face hazards during spaceflight, including space radiation exposure, isolation and confinement, traveling far distances from Earth, reduced gravity levels, and closed and hostile environments. These hazards drive the definition of human health and performance risks associated with spaceflight. NASA’s Human System Risk Board maintains the human spaceflight risk posture for in-mission risks, as well as post-flight, Long-Term Health (LTH)risks potentially occurring later in the astronaut’s life. LTH risk encompasses the timeframe from immediately post-flight, through the rest of an astronaut’s career, through retirement, and until death. Possible LTH risk outcomes include the time and interventions needed for the astronaut to return to preflight physiological states after experiencing spaceflight hazards and recovery from any in-mission medical events that persist into the post-flight timeframe. It includes chronic complications that may arise due to experiencing in-flight medical conditions or injuries and medical conditions that occur later in life with a higher probability of occurrence or with more severity because of their spaceflight exposure. Finally, LTH risk outcomes can also include a reduction in life expectancy due to spaceflight exposures. There have been 144 medical conditions identified by NASA’s Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health team to be associated with LTH risk. Epidemiological studies have been performed for some of these conditions to determine if astronauts suffer from an increased prevalence or severity of the condition due to their spaceflight experience compared to a comparable cohort .Differences in astronaut mortality or morbidity due to spaceflight experience were not detected in several of these studies. There were two cases where a modest increase in the incidence rate of astronaut LTH outcomes was detected. The first suggested an increase in the incidence of melanoma cases in astronauts, where the number of cases in astronauts were similar to the elevated number of cases observed in airplane pilots. The second provided some evidence of elevated numbers of cardiovascular disease events in astronauts compared to an appropriate healthy comparator cohort, which may warrant additional investigation. The lack of detection of LTH risk outcomes should not ease concerns about astronaut LTH. The studies highlighted here constitute only a small portion of the potential LTH conditions that could occur. Once epidemiological studies are performed on all conditions, significant findings may be detected. The analysis of astronaut LTH also suffers from limited numbers of data points because of the limited numbers of astronauts overall and the even fewer who have reached an age where LTH outcomes may begin to manifest. As shuttle and ISS astronauts begin to age and increase the feasibility of analysis, LTH outcomes may be detected. An application of risk quantification is the use of risk metrics within trade studies for resource prioritization and decision making. Trade studies regarding countermeasures to LTH risk outcomes would benefit from a quantification of LTH risk. NASA has ground-based processes in place such as astronaut screening and access to continuous medical monitoring and care during and after their astronaut career which are the main methods for mitigating LTH risk. In-mission countermeasures, such as acceptable levels of medical care and available countermeasures to counter spaceflight related physiological decrements, can mitigate a poor health and performance status immediately post-flight. Identifying appropriate risk metrics, obtaining valid quantities for them, and tying them to LTH countermeasures are necessary steps for realizing their use in trade studies. This presentation will highlight the challenges associated with the identification, quantification, and utilization of LTH risk metrics

Beth Lewandowski↗
NASA NTRS2025

Time-Dependent Satellite Explosion Probabilities for Long-Term Orbital Debris Environment Modeling

On-orbit accidental explosions are a significant contributor to the growth of the orbital debris population. Certain types of satellites have been seen to exhibit different behaviors and timelines of explosions. Recent assessments of on-orbit explosions for three categories of satellites – Russian Sistema Obespecheniya Zapuska (SOZ, Proton 4th stage attitude and ullage motors) units, spacecraft, and rocket bodies – suggest that on-orbit explosions can be modeled using a continuous, time-dependent probability of explosion. This paper discusses the methodology for developing a time-dependent probability of explosion as a function of the satellite’s orbital lifetime based on historical explosions. The SOZ units are found to be best modeled by a modified Gaussian probability distribution, with the peak probability of explosion occurring around 10.4 years on-orbit. Spacecraft and rocket bodies both exhibit exponentially decaying explosion probabilities, with rocket bodies showing fast-, medium-, and slow-time modes of decay. Total cumulative probabilities of explosion are approximately 57% for SOZ units, 4% for spacecraft, and 2% for rocket bodies. Examples of implementation in a simulation of the orbital debris environment using NASA's long-term evolutionary model are given, showing the overall explosion behavior over two centuries is significantly different from that using a previously implemented constant-probability type-dependent explosion rate model and provides a better representation of the historical explosion record.

Alyssa P Manis↗
DOE OSTI2020

DOE EM Sponsored Research on Long-Term Dry Storage of Aluminum Clad SNF

This PowerPoint presentation describes and discusses DOE EM and INL lead studies on addressing potential technical issues associated with long-term dry storage of aluminum clad spent nuclear fuel. This same presentation was made to the US Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board in Nov 2019.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Analysis for Long Term Capital Structures, Systems, and Components Refurbishment and Replacement

As commercial Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operation in the form of Second License Renewal (SLR), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term safe and economic performance. At the current time, several utilities have announced an intention to pursue extended operation for one or more of their NPPs via SLR . The goal of this research is to develop a risk-informed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions for NPP operations. Since the capital investments are influenced by various factors, such as markets, safety and regulatory, the decision-making process of NPP operations should take into account relevant factors for balancing risks, costs and profits. The traditional method of capital budgeting is based on the priority list of candidate projects using economic measures such as benefit-investment ratio, net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return. In the literatures, the problem of capital budgeting or the variant can be represented by an appropriate knapsack problem. The knapsack approach to capital budgeting takes as input as investment, along with the cost and profit of each project. The objective of capital budgeting is to find the combination of the binary decisions for every investment such that the overall profit is as large as possible. The output is a collection of projects to be carried out, and we refer this selected collection of projects as a project portfolio. One limitation of traditional optimization models for capital budgeting is that they do not account for risk/uncertainty in profit and cost streams associated with individual projects, they do not account for risk in resource availability in future years [1,2,3]. Projects can incur cost over-runs, especially when projects are large, performed infrequently, and when there is risk regarding technical viability, external contractors, and/or suppliers of requisite parts and materials. Occasionally, projects are performed ahead of schedule and with cost savings. Planned budgets for capital improvements can be cut and key personnel may be lost. Or, there may be surprise windfalls in budgets for maintenance activities due to decreased costs for “unplanned” maintenance. In these cases, how should we resolve capital budgeting when we have risk forecasts for costs, profits and budgets? One approach we proposed in this summary is to re-solve the optimization models based on assumed statistical distributions of given parameters. If these distributions were not available, a two-stage stochastic optimization approach can be used to provide priority lists to decision-makers to support better risk-informed decisions [4, 5]. In this summary, we will only focus on the first approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗