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NASA NTRS2001

Imagine the Universe!

Welcome to Imagine the Universe! Contained on this CD-ROM you will find three astronomy and space science learning centers, individually captured from the World Wide Web in December of 2000. Each site contains its own learning adventure full of facts, fun, beautiful images, movies, and excitement. (1) Imagine The Universe: this site is dedicated to a discussion about our Universe... what we know about it, how it is evolving, and the kinds of objects and phenomena it contains. Emphasizing the X-ray and gamma-ray parts of the electromagnetic spectrum, it also discusses how scientists know what they know, what mysteries remain, and how the answers to remaining mysteries may one day be found. Lots of movies, quizzes, and a special section for educators. Geared for ages 14 and up. This site can be viewed on-line at http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/. (2) StarChild- a learning center for young astronomers: the 1998 Webby Award Winner for Best Education Website, StarChild is aimed at ages 4-14. It contains easy-to-understand information about our Solar System, the Universe, and space exploration. There are also activities, songs, movies, and puzzles. This site can be viewed on-line at http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/. (3) Astronomy Picture of the Day: APOD offers a new astronomical image and caption each calendar day. We have captured the year 2000 entries of this award-winning site and included them on the disk. The images and information provide a wonderful resource for all ages. This site can be viewed on-line at http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2012

Optimize Use of Space Research and Technology for Medical Devices

systems, and cutting-edge component technologies to conduct a wide range of scientific observations and measurements. These technologies are also considered for practical applications that benefit society in remarkable ways. At NASA Goddard, the technology transfer initiative promotes matching technologies from Earth and space science needs to targeted industry sectors. This requires clear knowledge of industry needs and priorities and social demands. The process entails matching mature technologies where there are known innovation challenges and good opportunities for matching technology needs. This requires creative thinking and takes commitment of time and resources. Additionally, we also look at applications for known hot industry or societal needs. Doing so has given us occasion to host discussions with representatives from industry, academia, government organizations, and societal special interest groups about the application of NASA Goddard technologies for devices used in medical monitoring and detection tools. As a result, partnerships have been established. Innovation transpired when new products were enabled because of NASA Goddard research and technology programs.

Optimize↗
NASA NTRS2007

Development of a Deployable Nonmetallic Boom for Reconfigurable Systems of Small Modular Spacecraft

Launch vehicle payload capacity and the launch environment represent two of the most operationally limiting constraints on space system mass, volume, and configuration. Large-scale space science and power platforms as well as transit vehicles have been proposed that greatly exceed single-launch capabilities. Reconfigurable systems launched as multiple small modular spacecraft with the ability to rendezvous, approach, mate, and conduct coordinated operations have the potential to make these designs feasible. A key characteristic of these proposed systems is their ability to assemble into desired geometric (spatial) configurations. While flexible and sparse formations may be realized by groups of spacecraft flying in close proximity, flyers physically connected by active structural elements could continuously exchange power, fluids, and heat (via fluids). Configurations of small modular spacecraft temporarily linked together could be sustained as long as needed with minimal propellant use and reconfigured as often as needed over extended missions with changing requirements. For example, these vehicles could operate in extremely compact configurations during boost phases of a mission and then redeploy to generate power or communicate while coasting and upon reaching orbit. In 2005, NASA funded Phase 1 of a program called Modular Reconfigurable High-Energy Technology Demonstrator Assembly Testbed (MRHE) to investigate reconfigurable systems of small spacecraft. The MRHE team was led by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center and included Lockheed Martin's Advanced Technology Center (ATC) in Palo Alto and its subcontractor, ATK. One of the goals of Phase 1 was to develop an MRHE concept demonstration in a relevant 1-g environment to highlight a number of requisite technologies. In Phase 1 of the MRHE program, Lockheed Martin devised and conducted an automated space system assembly demonstration featuring multipurpose free-floating robots representing Spacecraft in the newly built Controls and Automation Laboratory (CAL) at the ATC. The CAL lab features a 12' x 24' granite air-bearing table and an overhead simulated starfield. Among the technologies needed for the concept demo were mating interfaces allowing the spacecraft to dock and deployable structures allowing for adjustable separation between spacecraft after a rigid connection had been established. The decision to use a nonmetallic deployable boom for this purpose was driven by the MRHE concept demo requirements reproduced in Table 1.

Rehnmark, Fredrik↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Closed-Loop Hardware Simulation of Decentralized Satellite Formation Control

In recent years, there has been significant interest in the use of formation flying spacecraft for a variety of earth and space science missions. Formation flying may provide smaller and cheaper satellites that, working together, have more capability than larger and more expensive satellites. Several decentralized architectures have been proposed for autonomous establishment and maintenance of satellite formations. In such architectures, each satellite cooperatively maintains the shape of the formation without a central supervisor, and processing only local measurement information. The Global Positioning System (GPS) sensors are ideally suited to provide such local position and velocity measurements to the individual satellites. An investigation of the feasibility of a decentralized approach to satellite formation flying was originally presented by Carpenter. He extended a decentralized linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) framework proposed by Speyer in a fashion similar to an extended Kalman filter (EKE) which processed GPS position fix solutions. The new decentralized LQG architecture was demonstrated in a numerical simulation for a realistic scenario that is similar to missions that have been proposed by NASA and the U.S. Air Force. Another decentralized architecture was proposed by Park et al. using carrier differential-phase GPS (CDGPS). Recently, Busse et al demonstrated the decentralized CDGPS architecture in a hardware-in-the-loop simulation on the Formation Flying TestBed (FFTB) at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), which features two Spirent Cox 16 channel GPS signal generator. Although representing a step forward by utilizing GPS signal simulators for a spacecraft formation flying simulation, only an open-loop performance, in which no maneuvers were executed based on the real-time state estimates, was considered. In this research, hardware experimentation has been extended to include closed-loop integrated guidance and navigation of multiple spacecraft formations using GPS receivers and real-time vehicle telemetry. A hardware closed-loop simulation has been performed using the decentralized LQG architecture proposed by Carpenter in the GPS test facility at the Center for Space Research (CSR). This is the first presentation using this type of hardware for demonstration of closed-loop spacecraft formation flying.

Ebimuma, Takuji↗
NASA NTRS2017

Virtualized Multi-Mission Operations Center (vMMOC) and its Cloud Services

His presentation will cover, the current and future, technical and organizational opportunities and challenges with virtualizing a multi-mission operations center. The full deployment of Goddard Space Flight Centers (GSFC) Virtualized Multi-Mission Operations Center (vMMOC) is nearly complete. The Space Science Mission Operations (SSMO) organizations spacecraft ACE, Fermi, LRO, MMS(4), OSIRIS-REx, SDO, SOHO, Swift, and Wind are in the process of being fully migrated to the vMMOC. The benefits of the vMMOC will be the normalization and the standardization of IT services, mission operations, maintenance, and development as well as ancillary services and policies such as collaboration tools, change management systems, and IT Security. The vMMOC will also provide operational efficiencies regarding hardware, IT domain expertise, training, maintenance and support.The presentation will also cover SSMO's secure Situational Awareness Dashboard in an integrated, fleet centric, cloud based web services fashion. Additionally the SSMO Telemetry as a Service (TaaS) will be covered, which allows authorized users and processes to access telemetry for the entire SSMO fleet, and for the entirety of each spacecrafts history. Both services leverage cloud services in a secure FISMA High and FedRamp environment, and also leverage distributed object stores in order to house and provide the telemetry. The services are also in the process of leveraging the cloud computing services elasticity and horizontal scalability. In the design phase is the Navigation as a Service (NaaS) which will provide a standardized, efficient, and normalized service for the fleet's space flight dynamics operations. Additional future services that may be considered are Ground Segment as a Service (GSaaS), Telemetry and Command as a Service (TCaaS), Flight Software Simulation as a Service, etc.

Ido, Haisam Kassim↗
NASA NTRS2007

Science Archives in the 21st Century: A NASA LAMBDA Report

Lambda is a thematic data center that focuses on serving the cosmic microwave background (CMB) research community. LAMBDA is an active archive for NASA's Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) and Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) mission data sets. In addition, LAMBDA provides analysis software, on-line tools, relevant ancillary data and important web links. LAMBDA also tries to preserve the most important ground-based and suborbital CMB data sets. CMB data is unlike other astrophysical data, consisting of intrinsically diffuse surface brightness photometry with a signal contrast of the order 1 part in 100,000 relative to the uniform background. Because of the extremely faint signal levels, the signal-to-noise ratio is relatively low and detailed instrument-specific knowledge of the data is essential. While the number of data sets being produced is not especially large, those data sets are becoming large and complex. That tendency will increase when the many polarization experiments currently being deployed begin producing data. The LAMBDA experience supports many aspects of the NASA data archive model developed informally over the last ten years-that small focused data centers are often more effective than larger more ambitious collections, for example; that data centers are usually best run by active scientists; that it can be particularly advantageous if those scientists are leaders in the use of the archived data sets; etc. LAMBDA has done some things so well that they might provide lessons for other archives. A lot of effort has been devoted to developing a simple and consistent interface to data sets, for example; and serving all the documentation required via simple 'more' pages and longer explanatory supplements. Many of the problems faced by LAMBDA will also not surprise anyone trying to manage other space science data. These range from persuading mission scientists to provide their data as quickly as possible, to dealing with a high volume of nuisance (spam) messages. Because so many data center problems and solutions are common across individual data centers and disciplines it would be very valuable to establish some new systems of communication - such as informal email lists for administrators and developers. But resources are very limited, so new timeconsuming and inefficient mechanisms - like too-frequent and too-structured meetingsshould be avoided. Although there are great advantages to being small, agile and independent, there are also some areas where science data centers within and without NASA could be better coordinated - for the assignment of persistent identifiers; to encourage the early adoption of useful standards and technologies; etc. Some super-structure to facilitate such coordination might be beneficial as long as it doesn't begin to control the other work of the archives, and become a "methodology police". In this respect the CCSDS "Reference Model for an Open Archive Information System" is a little worrying. It may be that the closer a data center gets to following such a detailed prescription, the less effective it will become. It is much better to have an informal coordination process than a bureaucratic straight-jacket.

Butterworth, P.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Unified User Interface to Support Effective and Intuitive Data Discovery, Dissemination, and Analysis at NASA GES DISC

Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has been providing access to scientific data sets since 1990s. Beginning as one of the first Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) archive centers, GES DISC has evolved to offer a wide range of science-enabling services. With a growing understanding of needs and goals of its science users, GES DISC continues to improve and expand on its broad set of data discovery and access tools, sub-setting services, and visualization tools. Nonetheless, the multitude of the available tools, a partial overlap of functionality, and independent and uncoupled interfaces employed by these tools often leave the end users confused as of what tools or services are the most appropriate for a task at hand. As a result, some the services remain underutilized or largely unknown to the users, significantly reducing the availability of the data and leading to a great loss of scientific productivity. In order to improve the accessibility of GES DISC tools and services, we have designed and implemented UUI, the Unified User Interface. UUI seeks to provide a simple, unified, and intuitive one-stop shop experience for the key services available at GES DISC, including sub-setting (Simple Subset Wizard), granule file search (Mirador), plotting (Giovanni), and other services. In this poster, we will discuss the main lessons, obstacles, and insights encountered while designing the UUI experience. We will also present the architecture and technology behind UUI, including NodeJS, Angular, and Mongo DB, as well as speculate on the future of the tool at GES DISC as well as in a broader context of the Space Science Informatics.

web portal↗
NASA NTRS1992

Life sciences utilization of Space Station Freedom

Space Station Freedom will provide the United States' first permanently manned laboratory in space. It will allow, for the first time, long term systematic life sciences investigations in microgravity. This presentation provides a top-level overview of the planned utilization of Space Station Freedom by NASA's Life Sciences Division. The historical drivers for conducting life sciences research on a permanently manned laboratory in space as well as the advantages that a space station platform provides for life sciences research are discussed. This background information leads into a description of NASA's strategy for having a fully operational International Life Sciences Research Facility by the year 2000. Achieving this capability requires the development of the five discipline focused 'common core' facilities. Once developed, these facilities will be brought to the space station during the Man-Tended Capability phase, checked out and brought into operation. Their delivery must be integrated with the Space Station Freedom manifest. At the beginning of Permanent Manned Capability, the infrastructure is expected to be completed and the Life Sciences Division's SSF Program will become fully operational. A brief facility description, anticipated launch date and a focused objective is provided for each of the life sciences facilities, including the Biomedical Monitoring and Countermeasures (BMAC) Facility, Gravitational Biology Facility (GBF), Gas Grain Simulation Facility (GGSF), Centrifuge Facility (CF), and Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) Test Facility. In addition, hardware developed by other NASA organizations and the SSF International Partners for an International Life Sciences Research Facility is also discussed.

Chambers, Lawrence P.↗
NASA NTRS2006

High Efficiency Power Combining of Ka-Band TWTs for High Data Rate Communications

Future NASA deep space exploration missions are expected in some cases to require telecommunication systems capable of operating at very high data rates (potentially 1 Gbps or more) for the transmission back to Earth of large volumes of scientific data, which means high frequency transmitters with large bandwidth. Among the Ka band frequencies of interest are the present 500 MHz Deep Space Network (DSN) band of 31.8 to 32.3 GHz and a broader band at 37-38 GHz allocated for space science [1]. The large distances and use of practical antenna sizes dictate the need for high transmitter power of up to 1 kW or more. High electrical efficiency is also a requirement. The approach investigated by NASA GRC is a novel wave guide power combiner architecture based on a hybrid magic-T junction for combining the power output from multiple TWTs [1,2]. This architecture was successfully demonstrated and is capable of both high efficiency (90-95%, depending on frequency) and high data rate transmission (up to 622 Mbps) in a two-way power combiner circuit for two different pairs of Ka band TWTs at two different frequency bands. One pair of TWTs, tested over a frequency range of 29.1 to 29.6 GHz, consisted of two 110-115W TWTs previously used in uplink data transmission evaluation terminals in the NASA Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) program [1,2]. The second pair was two 100W TWTs (Boeing 999H) designed for high efficiency operation (greater than 55%) over the DSN frequency band of 31.8 to 32.3 GHz [3]. The presentation will provide a qualitative description of the wave guide circuit, results for power combining and data transmission measurements, and results of computer modeling of the magic-T and alternative hybrid junctions for improvements in efficiency and power handling capability. The power combiner results presented here are relevant not only to NASA deep space exploration missions, but also to other U.S. Government agency programs.

Wintucky, E. G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight and Direct to Earth/Space Relay Communication System Architecture for GSFC CubeSat Missions

The CubeSat platform is finding increasing use in space science applications due to its low cost and comparative ease of launch. It is becoming a key scientific discovery tool in low Earth orbit (LEO) and beyond, including geosynchronous equatorial orbit (GEO), the Lagrange Points, Lunar missions, and more. The increasing complexity of these missions and their scientific goals must be supported by equal advancements in communications technology. Higher data rates and greater reliability are required every year. However, the reduced Size, Weight, and Power (SWaP) constraints of CubeSat platforms introduce unique challenges in the area of satellite communications. There is currently a lack of communication equipment tailored specifically to the CubeSat platform. This lack of standardized, tested equipment extends development time and reduces mission confidence. Furthermore, missions utilizing the CubeSat platform are often subject to more difficult design constraints. Antenna placement, size, and pointing are often subordinate to the requirements of the payload instruments and mission goals. Traditional link margin estimation techniques are insufficient in these cases, as they emphasize worst case scenarios. In reality the actual link parameters may vary widely even during a single pass. This presents new challenges in predicting communications performance and scheduling ground station contacts, but also new opportunities for improving efficiency. This paper presents the integration, testing, and validation process for a new software defined radio (SDR) designed for the CubeSat platform in conjunction with Vulcan Wireless, Inc. The SDR is planned for use on 5 upcoming CubeSat missions at NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) including a Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) mission and it may also serve as a standard and well-tested option for future missions by enabling a standardized, rapid and low cost CubeSat communication system network integration process. Detailed simulations have been developed to estimate the communication performance of these missions, taking the unique antenna placements and attitude behavior of each satellite into account. These simulations allow a much more accurate analysis of the expected link margin, which varies considerably during each pass for the NASA Space Relay (SR) and Direct to Earth (DTE) network. The modelling procedures are outlined, and the results are used to predict communications performance of the missions.

Space Networks↗
NASA NTRS1998

[Evaluation of super dwarf wheat growth and development in greenhouse "Svet" during cultivation in inhabited pressurized chamber]

Goals of the 3-month experiment GREENHOUSE using the equipment of greenhouse SVET (ECO-PSY-95) were to feature growth and development of wheat through the entire cycle of ontogeny under the maximally mimicked MIR environment, and to try out the procedures and timeline of space experiment GREENHOUSE-2 as a part of the fundamental biology investigations within the MIR/NASA space science program. Irradiation intensity (PAR) was 65 W/m2 and 38 W/m2 in the experiment and laboratory control, respectively. Values of other environmental parameters were MIR average (18-25 degrees C, relative air humidity in the interval between 40% and 75%, total gas pressure of about 660 to 860 mm Hg, partial oxygen pressure within the range from 140 to 200 mm Hg, partial carbon dioxide pressure up to 7 mm Hg). Experimental results showed that wheat cultivation in inhabited chamber under a modified lighting unit providing greater irradiation of the crop area produced more plant mass although seed production dropped. Low grain content in ears could be the aftermath of the gaseous trace contaminants in the chamber atmosphere.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗
NASA NTRS2006

High Performance, Dependable Multiprocessor

With the ever increasing demand for higher bandwidth and processing capacity of today's space exploration, space science, and defense missions, the ability to efficiently apply commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) processors for on-board computing is now a critical need. In response to this need, NASA's New Millennium Program office has commissioned the development of Dependable Multiprocessor (DM) technology for use in payload and robotic missions. The Dependable Multiprocessor technology is a COTS-based, power efficient, high performance, highly dependable, fault tolerant cluster computer. To date, Honeywell has successfully demonstrated a TRL4 prototype of the Dependable Multiprocessor [I], and is now working on the development of a TRLS prototype. For the present effort Honeywell has teamed up with the University of Florida's High-performance Computing and Simulation (HCS) Lab, and together the team has demonstrated major elements of the Dependable Multiprocessor TRLS system.

fault tolerant↗
DOE OSTI2020

KRUSTY Experiment: Reactivity Insertion Accident Analysis

The centerpiece of the Kilopower Project, i.e., the Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY) test, consists of the development and testing of a ground technology demonstration of a small fission power system based on a 1-kW(electric) space science power requirement. The KRUSTY test was authorized by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office. Authorization was obtained by adding an amendment to the existing regulatory documents for the National Criticality Experiments Research Center to cover the KRUSTY experiment. This amendment was reviewed and approved by the DOE. The most important safety question for the experiment was the addition of over 2 $ of excess reactivity to the reactor system. This amount of excess reactivity meant that the analyst could postulate accidents where the reactor went prompt critical, leading to physical shock or melting of the fuel. This paper analyzes these accidents using computer calculations and examines the controls used to mitigate them. The estimation of the impacts both on accident progression and consequences of reactivity insertion events was a significant part of obtaining approval for the KRUSTY experiment. The regulatory approval of KRUSTY was one of the first to be obtained for a completely new reactor concept in many decades.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Electric Sail Design Sensitivities

Electric Sails (E-Sails) are a promising propulsion technology that seek to enable high characteristic propellentless acceleration for spacecraft to reach distant and/or difficult to reach orbits such as rapid transit to heliopause. The E-Sail system exchanges momentum by using positively charged electrostatic tethers to repel solar wind photons to push it through space. This concept was first theorized by Pekka Janhunen in 2004 with further developments occurring including a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts Phase 1 and Phase 2 hosted out of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). These developments led to further maturation of the overall system, and this paper is designed to help identify different design sensitivities of an integrated Electric Sail system. To approach this, a small team at MSFC took an in-house developed three degrees of freedom (3DoF) simulation tool and a trajectory modelling tool to look at different design parameters and to determine a potential ideal E-Sail configuration. An E-Sail system has different design architectures including a barbell design, hub and spoke design, and a potential hybrid solution. The barbell design features two equally massed satellites that spin around a central point in the tether system. The hub and spoke design features a large central spacecraft with small end spacecraft to aid in formation control of the overall E-Sail system. Leveraging elements from both the hub and spoke, and barbell design, a hybrid option exists where one could have a larger central mass and one or two tethers extended to a smaller end mass [2]. In summary, the hub and spoke design is the ideal configuration for E-Sail with tethers spanning kilometers to achieve the designed design characteristic acceleration of at least one mm/s2 with this architecture being the focus of this study. Different key design parameters were varied as part of this study. These parameters include the total number of tethers, the length of the tethers, spin rate, relative spacecraft mass, tether voltage, inertia per tether, and impact of slew rate changes. These results started from an internal MSFC technology demonstration mission design and then the parameters were varied with engineering judgement to ensure that the results were consistent with expected results. These were varied in the MSFC 3DoF tool and compared to baseline results to generate a candidate ideal E-Sail design system. These results were then used to help inform the mission analysis design for the system. The 3DoF trajectory optimization was performed in the Astrodynamics and Space Science Enabling Toolbox (ASSET) and utilized collocation optimization of control vector pointing with the objective function being transfer duration. A representative model of the E-Sail force was derived as a function of the Sun-pointing vector direction. This model was initialized with a zero Sun Incidence Angle (SIA) trajectory for the initial guess generation, then with a portion of the mission optimized SIA time history for fast outbound transfers. After the trajectory is hyperbolic relative to a heliocentric frame, the SIA is maintained at 0 degrees except for any needed trajectory correction maneuvers. This trajectory optimization looked at different characteristic acceleration values to analyze the impact it had on mission performance. As a result of this study, the team can best inform mission designers and technology development efforts to mature the E-Sail system. This study will allow mission designers to have defined rules-of-thumb to design an E-Sail system to meet desired mission needs as well as providing several sample mission profiles. These design drivers will inform maturation efforts on which design requirements to consider for an integrated E-Sail design.

E-Sail↗
NASA NTRS1985

Space Station life sciences guidelines for nonhuman experiment accommodation

Life scientists will utilize one of four habitable modules which constitute the initial Space Station configuration. This module will be initially employed for studies related to nonhuman and human life sciences. At a later date, a new module, devoted entirely to nonhuman life sciences will be launched. This report presents a description of the characteristics of a Space Station laboratory facility from the standpoint of nonhuman research requirements. Attention is given to the science rationale for experiments which support applied medical research and basic gravitational biology, mission profiles and typical equipment and subsystem descriptions, issues associated with the accommodation of nonhuman life sciences on the Space Station, and conceptual designs for the initial operational capability configuration and later Space Station life-sciences research facilities.

Arno, R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

60 Years and Beyond of Reviews of Geophysics

Reviews of Geophysics is an AGU journal, first established in February 1963. It is a hybrid open access invitation-only journal that publishes comprehensive review articles across various disciplines within the Earth and Space Sciences. The selection criteria are rigorous and many submissions are declined without review. The journal is the highest ranked in the fields of Geochemistry and Geophysics, with a high Journal Impact Factor (JIF 2021 = 24.9), which is indicative of its high visibility and influence within the scientific community. The journal's published review papers, beyond a mere summary of literature, provide crucial context for current work, and establish the framework for comprehensive understanding of research progress, challenges, and interconnections between different communities, so that research may be appreciated by a broad audience. Finally, we emphasize the importance of publishing studies that provide a comprehensive overview and synthesis of the current state of knowledge in a field, especially in the case of geophysics, where knowledge is rapidly developing, increasing and becoming more specialized.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of the SYM-H Index Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method With Uncertainty Quantification

We propose a novel deep learning framework, named SYMHnet, which employs a graph neural network and a bidirectional long short-term memory network to cooperatively learn patterns from solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters for short-term forecasts of the SYM-H index based on 1- and 5-min resolution data. SYMHnet takes, as input, the time series of the parameters' values provided by NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive and predicts, as output, the SYM-H index value at time point t + w hours for a given time point t where w is 1 or 2. By incorporating Bayesian inference into the learning framework, SYMHnet can quantify both aleatoric (data) uncertainty and epistemic (model) uncertainty when predicting future SYM-H indices. Experimental results show that SYMHnet works well at quiet time and storm time, for both 1- and 5-min resolution data. The results also show that SYMHnet generally performs better than related machine learning methods. For example, SYMHnet achieves a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.343 compared to the FSS of 0.074 of a recent gradient boosting machine (GBM) method when predicting SYM-H indices (1 hr in advance) in a large storm (SYM-H = -393 nT) using 5-min resolution data. When predicting the SYM-H indices (2 hr in advance) in the large storm, SYMHnet achieves an FSS of 0.553 compared to the FSS of 0.087 of the GBM method. In addition, SYMHnet can provide results for both data and model uncertainty quantification, whereas the related methods cannot.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗