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DOE OSTI2026

The Value of Forecasters‐in‐the‐Loop in Real‐Time Flood Forecasting in the Age of Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) applications in hydrological forecasting are increasingly prevalent and show great potential. However, many previous studies have only evaluated performance through reanalysis or retrospective simulations compared to simplified baselines. This study provides the first assessment of ML performance against actual operational forecasting systems operated by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), which combines the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) with forecasters-in-the-loop. Results demonstrate that forecasters-in-the-loop systems consistently outperform ML models in both general forecasts and flood alerting across lead times up to 96 hr, even when ML models use observed forcings, while CNRFC operational process relies on biased weather forecasts. Our analysis reveals that forecaster expertise maintains forecast reliability despite inaccurate precipitation inputs, with human-guided systems showing superior performance degradation characteristics at extended lead times. These findings highlight the irreplaceable value of human expertise in operational forecasting and caution against overstating current ML capabilities in real-world applications.

Tran, Vinh Ngoc [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerical challenges in modeling gravothermal collapse in Self-Interacting Dark Matter halos

When dark matter has a large cross section for self scattering, halos can undergo a process known as gravothermal core collapse, where the inner core rapidly increases in density and temperature. To date, several methods have been used to implement Self-Interacting Dark Matter (SIDM) in N-body codes, but there has been no systematic study of these different methods or their accuracy in the core-collapse phase. In this paper, we compare three different numerical implementations of SIDM, including the standard methods from the GIZMO and Arepo codes, by simulating idealized dwarf halos undergoing significant dark matter self interactions (σ/m = 50 cm 2 /g). When simulating these halos, we also vary the mass resolution, time-stepping criteria, and gravitational force-softening scheme. The various SIDM methods lead to distinct differences in a halo's evolution during the core-collapse phase, as each results in spurious scattering rate differences and energy gains/losses. The use of adaptive force softening for gravity can lead to numerical heating that artificially accelerates core collapse, while an insufficiently small simulation time step can cause core evolution to stall or completely reverse. Additionally, particle numbers must be large enough to ensure that the simulated halos are not sensitive to noise in the initial conditions. Even for the highest-resolution simulations tested in this study (10 6 particles per halo), we find that variations of order 10% in collapse time are still present. Here, the results of this work underscore the sensitivity of SIDM modeling on the choice of numerical implementation and motivate a careful study of how these results generalize to halos in a cosmological context.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hyperparameter Studies for Vision Transformers Trained on High-Fidelity Simulations

This library is a collection of python modules that define, train, and analyze vision-transformer (ViT) machine learning models. The code implements, with mild modifications, ViT models that have been made publicly available through publication and GitHub code. The training data for these models is hydrodynamic simulation output in the form of numpy arrays. This library contains code to train these ViT models on the hydrodynamic simulation output with a variety of hyperparameters, and to compare the results of such models. Furthermore, the library contains definitions of simple convolutional neural network (CNN) machine learning architectures which can be trained on the same hydrodynamic simulation output. These are included as a reference point to compare the ViT models to. Additionally, the library includes trained ViT and CNN models and example input data for demonstration purposes. The code is based on the PyTorch python library.

Callis, Skylar↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiple Environmental Influences on the Lightning of Cold-Based Continental Cumulonimbus Clouds. Part I: Description and Validation of Model

In this two-part paper, influences from environmental factors on lightning in a convective storm are assessed with a model. In Part I, an electrical component is described and applied in the Aerosol–Cloud model (AC). AC treats many types of secondary (e.g., breakup in ice–ice collisions, raindrop-freezing fragmentation, rime splintering) and primary (heterogeneous, homogeneous freezing) ice initiation. AC represents lightning flashes with a statistical treatment of branching from a fractal law constrained by video imagery. The storm simulated is from the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS; 19/20 June 2000). The simulation was validated microphysically [e.g., ice/droplet concentrations and mean sizes, liquid water content (LWC), reflectivity, surface precipitation] and dynamically (e.g., ascent) in our 2017 paper. Predicted ice concentrations (~10 L -1 ) agreed—to within a factor of about 2—with aircraft data at flight levels (-10° to -15°C). Here, electrical statistics of the same simulation are compared with observations. Flash rates (to within a factor of 2), triggering altitudes and polarity of flashes, and electric fields, all agree with the coincident STEPS observations. The “normal” tripole of charge structure observed during an electrical balloon sounding is reproduced by AC. It is related to reversal of polarity of noninductive charging in ice–ice collisions seen in laboratory experiments when temperature or LWC are varied. Positively charged graupel and negatively charged snow at most midlevels, charged away from the fastest updrafts, is predicted to cause the normal tripole. Total charge separated in the simulated storm is dominated by collisions involving secondary ice from fragmentation in graupel–snow collisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

From Feast to Famine: A Systematic Study of Accretion onto Oblique Pulsars with 3D GRMHD Simulations

Disk-fed accretion onto neutron stars can power a wide range of astrophysical sources ranging from X-ray binaries, to accretion-powered millisecond pulsars, ultraluminous X-ray sources, and gamma-ray bursts. A crucial parameter controlling the gas–magnetosphere interaction is the strength of the stellar dipole. In addition, coherent X-ray pulsations in many neutron star systems indicate that the star's dipole moment is oblique relative to its rotation axis. Therefore, it is critical to systematically explore the 2D parameter space of the star's magnetic field strength and obliquity, which is what this work does, for the first time, in the framework of 3D general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamics. If the accretion disk carries its own vertical magnetic field, this introduces an additional factor: the relative polarity of the disk and stellar magnetic fields. We find that depending on the strength of the stellar dipole and the star–disk relative polarity, the neutron star's jet power can either increase or decrease with increasing obliquity. For weak dipole strength (equivalently, high accretion rate), the parallel polarity results in a positive correlation between jet power and obliquity, whereas the antiparallel orientation displays the opposite trend. For stronger dipoles, the relative-polarity effect disappears, and jet power always decreases with increasing obliquity. The influence of the relative polarity gradually disappears as obliquity increases. Highly oblique pulsars tend to have an increased magnetospheric radius, a lower mass accretion rate, and enter the propeller regime at lower magnetic moments than aligned stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

How to estimate soil organic carbon stocks of agricultural fields? perspectives using ex-ante evaluation

Estimating soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of agricultural fields has a range of important applications from development of sustainable management practices to monitoring carbon stocks. There are many estimation strategies with the potential for more reliable estimates of SOC stock and more efficient use of soil sampling and analysis resources, especially by leveraging readily available auxiliary information such as remote sensing. However, concrete guidance for strategy selection is lacking. This study narrows this gap with a comparison of strategies for estimating deep SOC stock (0–60 cm) in a prototypical field. Using high density SOC stock measurements and simulation, we built on past studies by 1) ex-ante evaluating a large number of strategy options, 2) using a Bayesian approach to quantify the uncertainty of the comparison, and 3) considering multiple Bayesian models to assess sensitivity to this modeling choice. We found that, using readily available auxiliary information, both balanced and stratified sampling offer substantial improvements over simple random sampling. The auxiliary information most important for this improvement is a Sentinel-2 SOC index = blue / (green × red), followed by the topographic wetness index. We found that these results are robust to the choice of mapping method, but that there is uncertainty in the magnitude of improvement. Here, we recommend future studies implement this Bayesian approach for simulated ex-ante evaluation of SOC stock estimation strategies across more fields to investigate the generalizability of these findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulating Turbulence-aided Neutrino-driven Core-collapse Supernova Explosions in One Dimension

The core-collapse supernova (CCSN) mechanism is fundamentally 3D, with instabilities, convection, and turbulence playing crucial roles in aiding neutrino-driven explosions. Simulations of CCNSe including accurate treatments of neutrino transport and sufficient resolution to capture key instabilities remain among the most expensive numerical simulations in astrophysics, prohibiting large parameter studies in 2D and 3D. Studies spanning a large swath of the incredibly varied initial conditions of CCSNe are possible in 1D, though such simulations must be artificially driven to explode. We present a new method for including the most important effects of convection and turbulence in 1D simulations of neutrino-driven CCSNe, called Supernova Turbulence In Reduced-dimensionality, or STIR. Our new approach includes crucial terms resulting from the turbulent and convective motions of the flow. We estimate the strength of convection and turbulence using a modified mixinglength theory approach, introducing a few free parameters to the model that are fit to the results of 3D simulations. For sufficiently large values of the mixing-length parameter, turbulence-aided neutrino-driven explosions are obtained. We compare the results of STIR to high-fidelity 3D simulations and perform a parameter study of CCSN explosion using 200 solar-metallicity progenitor models from 9 to 120 M ⊙ . We find that STIR is a better predictor of which models will explode in multidimensional simulations than other methods of driving explosions in 1D. We also present a preliminary investigation of predicted observable characteristics of the CCSN population from STIR, such as the distributions of explosion energies and remnant masses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mechanical properties, failure mechanisms, and scaling laws of bicontinuous nanoporous metallic glasses

Molecular dynamics simulations are employed to study the mechanical properties of nanoporous Cu x Zr 1-x metallic glasses (MGs) with five different compositions, x = 0.28, 0.36, 0.50, 0.64, and 0.72, and porosity in the range 0.1 < Φ < 0.7. Results from tensile loading simulations indicate a strong dependence of Young's modulus, E, and Ultimate Tensile Strength (UTS) on porosity and composition. By increasing the porosity from Φ = 0.1 to Φ = 0.7, the topology of the nanoporous MG shifts from closed cell to open-cell bicontinuous. The change in nanoporous topology enables a brittle-to-ductile transition in deformation and failure mechanisms from a single critical shear band to necking and rupture of ligaments. Genetic Programming (GP) is employed to find scaling laws for E and UTS as a function of porosity and composition. Here, a comparison of the GP-derived scaling laws against existing relationships shows that the GP method is able to uncover expressions that can predict accurately both the values of E and UTS in the whole range of porosity and compositions considered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Energy performance analysis of smart wall system with switchable insulation and thermal storage capacity

The ever-increasing global energy demand and the issues caused by population growth and unsustainable energy resource usages have several environmental and economic impacts. The on-demand capability of dynamic wall systems with switchable insulation systems can contribute toward energy efficiency and reduced electric cost using "building-as-a-battery." In this paper, the performance of an exterior envelope system that employs a switchable insulation system is investigated. A COMSOL simulation was used to study the envelope performance under three switchable insulation locations in the wall system. The on and off switching cycle included insulating or conducting the exterior, interior, or both sides of the mass wall system. To validate the simulation work, an experimental test was conducted in climate chamber on a 4 × 8 in. wall system with identical wall components used in the COMSOL simulation. Results show a good agreement between the experiment and simulation results. The wall system with switchable insulation placed on the exterior side provided the highest interior inward heat flux when compared with the interior or split insulation. Also, an exterior switchable insulation system in addition to a thermal mass maintained a positive heat flow for more hours when the outdoor temperature was lower than the interior temperature.

Iffa, Emishaw↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance of microchannel plate based detectors for <25 keV x rays: Monte Carlo simulations and comparisons with experimental results

We present the results of Monte Carlo simulations of the microchannel plate (MCP) response to x rays in the 250 eV to 25 keV energy range as a function of both x-ray energy and impact angle and their comparisons with the experimental results from the X8A beamline at the National Synchrotron Light Source at Brookhaven National Laboratory. Incoming x rays interact with the lead glass of the microchannel plate, producing photoelectrons. Transport of the photoelectrons is neglected in this model, and it is assumed that photoelectrons deposit all their energy at the point they are created. This deposition leads to the generation of many secondary electrons, some fraction of which diffuse to the MCP pore surface where they can initiate secondary electron cascades in the pore under an external voltage bias. X-ray penetration through multiple MCP pore walls is increasingly important above 5 keV, and the effect of this penetration on MCP performance is studied. In agreement with past measurements, we find that the dependence of MCP sensitivity with angle relative to the pore bias changes from a cotangent dependence to angular independence and then proceeds to a secant dependence as the x-ray energy increases. We also find that with the increasing x-ray energy, the MCP gain sensitivity as a function of bias voltage decreases. The simulations also demonstrate that for x rays incident normal to the MCP surface, spatial resolution shows little dependence on the x-ray energy but degrades with the increasing x-ray energy as the angle of incidence relative to the surface normal increases. This agrees with experimental measurements. Simulation studies have also been completed for MCPs gated with a subnanosecond voltage pulse. In this work, we find that the optical gate profile width increases as the x-ray energy is increased above 5 keV, a consequence of increased x-ray penetration at energies >5 keV. Simulations of the pulsed dynamic range show that the dynamic range varies between ~100 and 1000 depending on x-ray energy and peak voltage.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Developing a PSCAD Model of the Reduced 240-Bus WECC Test System: Preprint

Fast-acting controls of inverter-based resources (IBR) introduce unprecedented dynamics to bulk power systems and island power grids, especially the high-frequency dynamics ranging from $>5$ Hz to hundreds of Hz. These oscillatory stability problems cannot be captured by the phasor domain simulations, e.g., in PSS/E, Powerworld and TSAT, due to insufficient modeling. Instead, they should be studied by electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations by using proper EMT dynamic models. This paper develops and validates the PSCAD model of the reduced 240-bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) test system. The PSCAD model will be released to the public, which can be used by both academia and power industry practitioners for studying the fast dynamic problems without any Critical Energy/Electric Infrastructure Information (CEII).

240-bus WECC test system↗

DOE OSTI2022

Highly supercooled riming and unusual triple-frequency radar signatures over McMurdo Station, Antarctica

Abstract. Riming of ice crystals by supercooled water droplets is an efficient ice growth process, but its basic properties are still poorly known. While it has been shown to contribute significantly to surface precipitation at mid-latitudes, little is known about its occurrence at high latitudes. In Antarctica, two competing effects can influence the occurrence of riming: (i) the scarcity of supercooled liquid water clouds due to the extremely low tropospheric temperatures and (ii) the low aerosol concentration, which may lead to the formation of fewer and larger supercooled drops potentially resulting in an enhanced riming efficiency. In this work, by exploiting the deployment of an unprecedented number of multiwavelength remote sensing systems (including triple-frequency radar measurements) in West Antarctica, during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) field campaign, we evaluate the riming incidence at McMurdo Station and find that riming occurs at much lower temperatures when compared to previous results in the mid-latitudes. This suggests the possible occurrence of a common atmospheric state over Antarctica that includes a rather stable atmosphere inhibiting turbulent mixing, and a high riming efficiency driven by large cloud droplets. We then focus on a peculiar case study featuring a persistent layer with a particularly pronounced riming signature in triple-frequency radar data but only a relatively modest amount of supercooled liquid water. In-depth analysis of the radar observations suggests that such signatures can only be explained by the combined effects of moderately rimed aggregates or similarly shaped florid polycrystals and a narrow particle size distribution (PSD). Simulations of this case study performed with a one-dimensional bin model indicate that similar triple-frequency radar observations can be reproduced when narrow PSDs are simulated. Such narrow PSDs can in turn be explained by two key factors: (i) the presence of a shallow homogeneous droplet or humidified aerosol freezing layer aloft seeding an underlying supercooled liquid layer, and (ii) the absence of turbulent mixing throughout a stable polar atmosphere that sustains narrow PSDs, as hydrometeors grow from the nucleation region aloft to ice particles of several millimeters in size, by vapor deposition and then riming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Geant4 Simulation of Cherenkov Photons in Perovskite CsPbBr 3 Gamma-Ray Detectors

Perovskite materials have recently attracted significant attention for hard X-ray and gamma-ray detection. Cherenkov light generated by fast electrons due to gamma-ray interaction with the material can be used to provide fast timing information. Here, in this study, we report Geant4 simulation results of Cherenkov photon generation, transport, and detection within perovskite CsPbBr3. The Cherenkov photon yield, energy spectrum and temporal distribution are investigated under different gamma-ray energy deposition within CsPbBr3. CsPbBr 3 has a similar Cherenkov photon yield as of TlBr that has demonstrated fast-timing capability based on Cherenkov light. The effect of crystal volume, surface finish and SiPM photon detection efficiency on the Cherenkov detection is also discussed. This work provides insights into Cherenkov processes of CsPbBr3.

Cherenkov photon↗

DOE OSTI2023

Study of Cathode and Cavity Geometries in Electropolishing (EP): Electric Field Simulation

Niobium (Nb) superconducting radio frequency (SRF) cavities require electropolishing surface treatment to reach high acceleration gradient. EP performed in the plateau region of an I-V curve [1] leads to a smooth finish of the cavity surface including the equator surface. The equator surface is vital because a rough equator surface leads to premature quench and limit the cavity performance. Previous experimental work was performed to optimize EP parameters for low-beta (LB) 650 MHz Nb cavity [1]. It was found that different cathode surface areas vary the plateau onset voltage. A lower onset voltage was achieved for HB650 cavity with an enlarged cathode surface area. The aim of the study is to perform electrostatic and electrochemical simulation to understand the impact of both cavity geometry and cathodes. This report covers an initial result on electric field simulation performed with HB and LB 650 MHz cavities.

Loer, Bereket↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulation-guided analysis of resonant soft X-ray scattering for determining the microstructure of triblock copolymers

Resonant soft X-ray scattering (RSoXS) probes structure with chemical sensitivity that is useful for determining the morphology of multiblock copolymers. However, the hyperspectral scattering data produced by this technique can be challenging to interpret. Here, in this study, we use computational scattering simulations to extract the microstructure of a model triblock copolymer from the energy-dependent scattering from RSoXS. An ABC triblock terpolymer formed from poly(4-methylcaprolactone) (P4MCL), poly(2,2,2-trifluoroethylacrylate) (PTFEA), and poly (dodecylacrylate) (PDDA), P4MCL-block-PTFEA-block-PDDA, was synthesized as the model triblock system. Through quantitative evaluation of simulated scattering data from a physics-informed set of candidate structure models against experimental RSoXS data, we find the best agreement with hexagonally packed core–shell cylinders. This result is also consistent with electron-density reconstruction from hard X-ray scattering data evaluated against electron-density maps generated with the same model set. These results demonstrate the utility of simulation-guided scattering analysis to study complex microstructures that are challenging to image by microscopy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

pH-Dependent Vibrational Dynamics Drives Excited-State Quenching in the Phycobiliprotein Complex PC645

Phycocyanin 645 (PC645) is a closed-form lightharvesting complex found in the lumen of the photosynthetic membrane of cryptophyte algae. These peripheral antenna complexes contain bilin chromophores that absorb sunlight and transfer excitation energy to the core antenna complexes embedded in the thylakoid membrane. The location of cryptophyte antenna complex on the luminal side of the membrane is unusual. During photosynthetic activity, the pH of the lumen drops, by up to two pH units. There is little known about how this pH-change affects the light-harvesting complexes. In this study, we report multiscale simulations using a computationally efficient density functional tight-binding framework to investigate the spectroscopy and excitation energy transfer in the PC645 complex. Complementary experiments were conducted using both steady-state and time-resolved spectroscopic measurements at low, neutral, and high pH values. Our study shows that (de)protonation of specific bilin pigments, namely, the mesobiliverdins (MBVs), modulates the excitation energies, excitonic couplings, and spectral densities. These changes cause excitation transfer rates to increase by up to a factor of two to three, leading to pH-dependent energy transfer pathways in the complex. Using this model, we calculated the pH-dependent fluorescence quantum yield of the system, obtaining quantitative agreement with the experimental results. These computational simulations, supported by experiments, identify MBVs as a more prominent excitation sink than previously realized, and that this role is tuned by pH.

Maity, Sayan [Constructor Univ., Bremen (Germany);↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning–assisted prediction of heat fluxes through thermally anisotropic building envelopes

Thermally anisotropic building envelope (TABE) is a novel active building envelope that can save energy use to maintain thermal comfort in buildings by redirecting heat and coolness from building envelopes to thermal loops. Finite element models (FEMs) can be used to compute the heat fluxes through TABEs, but the high computational cost of finite element simulations has prevented parametric studies and design optimizations. This paper proposes a domain knowledge–informed, finite element–based machine learning framework to reduce the computation cost for the energy management of buildings installed with TABE that uses a ground thermal loop. First, the training heat flux data set was generated by FEM simulations with different thermal loop schedules. Then, both shallow learning models (i.e., multivariate linear regression and eXtreme Gradient Boost, or XGBoost) and a deep learning model (i.e., deep neural network, or DNN) were trained to predict the heat fluxes. Domain knowledge was used for data preprocessing and feature selection. Finally, the suitability of the selected machine learning model was tested under different thermal loop schedules. Herein, the case study results showed that: (1) XGBoost can be as accurate as DNN (coefficient of determination equal to 0.81) with much less training time; (2) the annual energy cost savings for different thermal loop schedules obtained by the XGBoost-predicted and FEM-calculated heat fluxes are consistent, having a difference of only 4%; and (3) XGBoost can reduce the computation time for the annual energy analysis of the case study building with a given thermal loop schedule from around 12 h by using FEM to less than 1 min.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗