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Phase 1 NuScale SMR FOAK Nuclear Demonstration Readiness Project (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The overarching objective of the Phase 1 NuScale SMR First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) Nuclear Demonstration Readiness Project was to enhance competitiveness of the U.S. nuclear industry by enabling timely deployment of the NuScale small modular reactor (SMR). The scope of this Phase 1 project continued to advance the licensing and design maturity, particularly in those areas related to supporting customer readiness, supply chain integration, cost competitiveness, and cost confidence. This investment provided by the Government has accelerated development of these designs and technologies so that the existing domestic fleet of nuclear power plants remains viable and the most mature in the nuclear industry. The intent is to have the new, advanced U.S. designs be deployed as early 2026, and be globally competitive. As a part of the First-of-a-Kind Nuclear Demonstration Readiness Project, NuScale has been developing an advanced reactor design, leading the path for other development projects or complex technology advancements for existing plants that have significant technical and licensing risk. The NuScale Power team (NuScale) is advancing licensing, engineering, supply chain development, testing, and other required activities to enhance the innovation and competitiveness of the U.S. nuclear industry by enabling timely deployment of the NuScale SMR. Specifically, NuScale is performing the following activities in Phase 1. Fully supporting the NRC review of the NuScale DCA to ensure approval of a final safety evaluation report by the end of 2020. Improving plant cost confidence and cost competitiveness through design and supply chain advancement, incorporation of constructability best practices, and margin recovery to increase plant power output. Accelerating design maturity, technology development, and operational program readiness to support a customer commitment for plant deployment. The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), a unit of the Office of Science, fulfills agency-wide responsibilities to collect, preserve, and disseminate both unclassified and classified scientific and technical information (STI) emanating from DOE-funded research and development (R&D) activities at DOE national laboratories and facilities and at universities and other institutions nationwide. This scientific and technical report provides summaries of the analyses and research that was performed by NuScale under this project that achieves the objective of disseminating information to the nuclear industry to ensure the innovations realized are shared for the benefit of the industry at large.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Lander Lighting Solution to Reduce Pilot & Autonomous Approach Errors

The south pole lighting environment will have harsh low inclination sunlight, making overhead judgement of surface features difficult. Autonomous solutions are great, however, the need for visual monitoring and independent go/no-go decisions remain. Our project proposes that lunar landing systems will be better served by including a powerful landing light system that improves visibility of surfaces from overhead by illuminating the ground at critical distances for the crew to make last minute decisions regarding an approach. The project utilized computer-based optical modeling software to predict requirements for a potential landing light system. The analysis based the lamp prediction from commercially available LED chip sets and lamp optics. The goal was to illustrate a method to raise the surface contrast of a landing site within an acceptable contrast threshold for most camera systems and human observers to recognize hazards that would not be noticed with low inclination sunlight alone. The Apollo lunar landings benefitted from overhead sun or dark conditions. The surface lighting at the Lunar South Pole is a harsh environment where surfaces are lit from a low inclination angle by the sun (from the side). This change in lighting condition precipitates a need for updated lunar landing systems that facilitate improved recognition of landing sites, and thereby increase pilot awareness of landing hazards. The reliance on LIDAR and other autonomous mechanisms alone is risky given the known usage of visual monitoring for operator concurrence on current spacecraft programs and present-day autonomous land-based vehicles. Visual monitoring via cameras or windows requires the surface contrast to be within 3 orders of magnitude for reasonable recognition of objects. Artificial overhead illumination, when sufficiently sized, provides a means to even out contrast problems created by low inclination sunlight, potentially reducing piloting errors. Current vehicle requirements do not specify this type of guidance for the purpose of increasing mission success. An optical ray-trace simulation model was developed in Zemax Optics Studio to predict the best combination of LED power, LED optics, lamp quantity, and lamp location to raise the surface contrast to within 2 orders of magnitude from 3 orders required to further increased visibility and reduce risk. The project considered the following design constraints: potential base diameter of lander, approach distance(s) for a go-no-go decision point (200 meter), solar inclination angle (2-7), lunar surface reflectance (10%), LED chip sets, LED focusing optics, LED power, lamp quantity, lamp locations, and illumination diameter of lunar surface landing zone. The results can be used to establish minimum design constraints for vehicle landing light systems. With a solar inclination angle ranging from 2-7 degrees, the horizontal illumination of the lunar surface is attenuated by about 10% when compared to overhead illumination from the Sun. This modifies the sun's maximum of 130,000 lux to 13,000 lux horizontal illuminance. The artificial lighting system was designed to provide an 18-meter-wide illumination zone, to create viewing clearances around a 6-meter-wide lander. The system provides an average illuminance of 300 lux, meeting the 2 orders of magnitude criteria. The solution utilized modern Chip On Board LEDs, that each utilized 17 watts, with focusing Total Internal Reflection (TIR) lenses. A lighting system of 300 LEDs was arrayed along the "bottom" of a “lander”. With 17 watts per LED, the system is estimated to require 5100 watts. This is a large amount of power, but it would only be needed during critical phases during the landing. LED lighting systems can be dimmed, and it is assumed that as the lander arrives closer to the landing site, the lighting system power can be adjusted as needed to produce the necessary surface illuminance. The designed reduction of contrast improves reliability of safety assessments using real time visible light camera systems and out the window viewing by the crew.

T A Clark↗

Thinking the Other Unthinkable: Disarmament in North Korea and Beyond

The P5 have defined nuclear disarmament as both a process and an end state. Differences of view about the latter are sharp, bitter, and abiding. This has stripped the discussion about the former of much of its potential content and value. Where might we get, practically and conceptually, if we were to set aside for now questions about the ultimate feasibility and desirability of the long-term goal and focus instead on the process? Further, what if we were also to posit that there will be no “fundamental transformation” of the international political system of a kind that would make the nuclear-armed states, and their unarmed neighbors, unconcerned about the effectiveness of mechanisms for peace and security in a disarmed and disarming world? In this context, might it be possible to give states the confidence they would require to take more ambitious incremental steps on the disarmament pathway? How could such steps contribute to the relaxation of international tensions that the NPT itself describes as a critical enabler of disarmament? These questions motivate this timely and innovative new work by Toby Dalton and George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Their core objective is to “infuse needed realism into disarmament discussions.” Using North Korean disarmament as a test case, they explore a series of practical challenges and associated conceptual issues to frame a discussion of the possible disarming nucleararmed states. They begin by rightly noting that neither the advocates of the Ban treaty nor the advocates of North Korean disarmament have set our practical agendas for achieving their aims. They conclude that without an infusion of realism the “two polarized blocks” will continue to “stonewall and repel each other” and thus that “the risks of global nuclear disorder will grow.” This is the latest in the series of Livermore Papers begun in 2017 to stimulate the development of new strategic thought on emerging nuclear challenges. Conceptually, it is a follow-on to the inaugural Livermore Paper by Lewis Dunn on disarmament pathways. The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory or any of its sponsors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimization of armored spherical tanks for storage on the lunar surface

A redundancy strategy for reducing micrometeroid armoring mass is investigated, with application to cryogenic reactant storage for a regenerative fuel cell (RFC) on the lunar surface. In that micrometeoroid environment, the cryogenic fuel must be protected from loss due to tank puncture. The tankage must have a sufficiently high probability of survival over the length of the mission so that the probability of system failure due to tank puncture is low compared to the other mission risk factors. Assuming that a single meteoroid penetration can cause a storage tank to lose its contents, two means are available to raise the probability of surviving micrometeoroid attack to the desired level. One can armor the tanks to a thickness sufficient to reduce probability of penetration of any tank to the desired level or add extra capacity in the form of spare tanks that results in survival of a given number out of the ensemble at the desired level. A combination of these strategies (armoring and redundancy) is investigated. The objective is to find the optimum combination which yields the lowest shielding mass per cubic meter of surviving fuel out of the original ensemble. The investigation found that, for the volumes of fuel associated with multikilowatt class cryo storage RFC's, and the armoring methodology and meteoroid models used, storage should be fragmented into small individual tanks. Larger installations (more fuel) pay less of a shielding penalty than small installations. For the same survival probability over the same time period, larger volumes will require less armoring mass per unit volume protected.

Bents, D. J.↗

NASA Countermeasures Evaluation and Validation Project

To support its ISS and exploration class mission objectives, NASA has developed a Countermeasure Evaluation and Validation Project (CEVP). The goal of this project is to evaluate and validate the optimal complement of countermeasures required to maintain astronaut health, safety, and functional ability during and after short- and long-duration space flight missions. The CEVP is the final element of the process in which ideas and concepts emerging from basic research evolve into operational countermeasures. The CEVP is accomplishing these objectives by conducting operational/clinical research to evaluate and validate countermeasures to mitigate these maladaptive responses. Evaluation is accomplished by testing in space flight analog facilities, and validation is accomplished by space flight testing. Both will utilize a standardized complement of integrated physiological and psychological tests, termed the Integrated Testing Regimen (ITR) to examine candidate countermeasure efficacy and intersystem effects. The CEVP emphasis is currently placed on validating the initial complement of ISS countermeasures targeting bone, muscle, and aerobic fitness; followed by countermeasures for neurological, psychological, immunological, nutrition and metabolism, and radiation risks associated with space flight. This presentation will review the processes, plans, and procedures that will enable CEVP to play a vital role in transitioning promising research results into operational countermeasures necessary to maintain crew health and performance during long duration space flight.

Lundquist, Charlie M.↗

Planetary Protection at Marshall Space Flight Center

Introduction: NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is historically known for its role in propulsion. While this is still the mainstay of MSFC’s expertise, many unique capabilities exist at MSFC which pertain to Planetary Protection (PP), including 1) identifying PP threats, and 2) developing novel methods to neutralize those threats. Furthermore, because these capabilities exist among diverse groups at MSFC, this work promotes collaboration both within and outside MSFC to expand and develop PP studies related to a full spectrum of NASA research, design, manufacture, and test interests. This abstract describes the PP research ongoing at MSFC and describes how it contributes to NASA’s overall PP objectives. Microbial Identification in Cleanrooms: One of the greatest threats to successful implementation of PP requirements is recontamination post bioburden reduction. One method to prevent recontamination is to keep the spacecraft in clean environments (i.e. cleanrooms) as much as possible during assembly and integration. However, cleanrooms are not without their own sources of contamination, which is why NASA is interested in monitoring the cleanliness of cleanrooms and characterizing the microbial species present. Such information allows a greater understanding of the resistance of these microbes to cleaning methods, as well as the risk of their contaminating the targeted planetary body of a given mission. MSFC has multiple cleanrooms of various ISO cleanliness levels onsite. We sampled the air and surfaces of three of these rooms, isolated microbes, and then sequenced the 16S rRNA gene or ITS region of the 18S rRNA gene for bacterial and fungal isolates, respectively. This has resulted in a microbial library which currently includes nearly 100 isolates. Microbial Enumeration of Spacecraft Materials: Currently, there are only a couple bioburden reduction methods approved by NASA, and often the harshness of these methods presents additional concerns or risks related to material properties. The goal of this research is to assess the microbial content of solid rocket motor (SRM) materials potentially used for lander missions. This work aims to more accurately define the risk of planetary contamination by providing empirical data associated with commonly used SRM raw materials. In this study, we pulverized nonmetallic SRM materials using a cryogenic grinder, then analyzed the resulting substrate for microbial colony forming units (CFU). We found that many SRM nonmetallic materials do not harbor detectable bioburden, though a range existed depending on the material. The results from this work provide quantitative data to potentially reduce concerns of contamination, while also providing a foundation for follow up studies into additional sterilization methods and molecular identification of contaminating microbes. Space Environmental Effects on Microbial Survival: One potential area of microbial reduction is the space environment. Understanding the survivability of hardy microbes in space-like conditions is a crucial first step in answering how space may reduce bioburden and if it can be relied upon for adherence to PP requirements. This work studied the effects of ultraviolet (UV) and ionizing radiation on survival of Bacillus atrophaeus spores. Microbes were dried on relevant polymeric materials then exposed to space environmental stressors. Coupons were submerged in water, diluted, and plated to determine survival compared with controls. We found that both UV and ionizing radiation were capable of reducing viability by nearly 99%, but there were still survivors, some with changed morphology indicating resistance mechanisms within certain cells. Manufacturing credit: Finally, given the above-mentioned limitations of the NASA-approved bioburden reduction methods, there is interest in understanding if manufacturing processes may provide enough bioburden reduction without additional PP-specific bakeouts. For instance, some material additives may be antimicrobial. Given this, we investigated the effects of several commonly used rubber additives on the growth of B. atrophaeus spores. We found that some of the materials inhibited growth of the spores, possibly supporting the use of these additives on missions with PP constraints. Future work into manufacturing credit for bioburden reduction includes inoculation of green insulation with B. atrophaeus spores, followed by a typical cure. Thermal profiles will be verified for appropriate temperature and durations to meet PP requirements, and cured samples will be analyzed using a cryogenic grinder to determine survivability of spores.

Chelsi D. Cassilly↗

Design, Fabrication and On-Sun Performance Evaluation of SiC Receiver Feature Specimens for CST Applications Using Additively Manufactured SiC Materials

Increasing operating temperatures of solar receivers is paramount to the efficiency of concentrated solar thermal (CST) and solar power (CSP) systems. Successful development of CST systems to generate heat for industrial applications requires significant increase in temperature capability and techno-economically viability of the receiver systems. Supported by an award from the Solar Technology Office (SETO), US Department of Energy (DOE), GE Aerospace Research in collaboration with Heliogen Holdings Inc and Sandia National Lab, is engaged in the development of ultra-High Operating Temperature SiC-matrix Solar Thermal Air Receiver (HOTSSTAR) enabled by additive manufacturing. The program objective is to demonstrate SiC receiver with air exit temperatures up to 1100 oC and high thermal efficiencies. We report design, fabrication and on-sun test results of SiC components of a prototype 50kW (thermal) HOTSSTAR module. The receiver module architecture is based on a radial airflow design and consists of a series of radial SiC receiver sectors organized around a SiC center absorber. The SiC components are fabricated using binder-jet printed SiC followed by melt-infiltration reaction bonding process. To enhance the reliability and to minimize the risk of cracking damage of SiC test articles in thermal gradient and thermal shock environment of the application, the components were laminated with GE’s MI SiC-SiC CMC. Following extensive design and lab test analyses, selected SiC component designs are tested at Heliogen Lancaster Solar field under highly concentrated solar fluxes around 2000 suns to assess the thermal performance characteristics under realistic field conditions. We report on the test results and compare the thermal performances of different HOTSSTAR SiC absorbers. Finally, we discuss fabrication and initial assembly of a 50kW prototype test module in preparation of on-sun field tests to assess the performance of our final design.

CST, CSP, high temperature, air receiver, SiC, add↗

The challenge of the US Space Station

The U.S. Space Station program is described. The objectives of the present national space policy are reviewed. International involvement and commercial use of space are the two strategies involved in the development of the Space Station. The Space Station is to be a multifunctional, modular, permanent facility with manned and unmanned platforms. The functions of the Space Station for space research projects, such as material processing and electrophoresis, are examined. The infrastructure required for commercialization of space is analyzed. NASA's space policy aimed at stimulating space commerce is discussed. NASA's plans to reduce the financial, institutional, and technical risks of space research are studied.

Beggs, J. M.↗

Notional Airspace Operations Demonstration Plan

The airspace operations demonstration (AOD) is intended to show that the Access 5 Step 1 functional requirements can be met. The demonstration will occur in two phases. The initial on-range phase will be carried out in restricted airspace to demonstrate the cooperative collision avoidance (CCA) functional requirements and to provide risk-reduction for the AOD by allowing the test team to rehearse some elements of the demonstration mission. The CCA system to be used in these flights is based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) which is a commercially-available system by which airplanes constantly broadcast their current position and altitude to other aircraft and ground resources over a dedicated radio datalink. The final phase will occur in the national airspace (NAS) and will be the formal demonstration of the remainder of the proposed functional requirements. The general objectives of the AOD are as follows: (1) Demonstrate that the UAS can aviate in the NAS (2) Demonstrate that the UAS can navigate in the NAS (3) Demonstrate that the UAS can communicate with the NAS (4) Demonstrate that the UAS can perform selected collision avoidance functions in the NAS (5) Demonstrate that the UAS can evaluate and avoid weather conflicts in the NAS (6) Demonstrate that the UAS can provide adequate command and control in the NAS In addition to the stated objectives, there are a number of goals for the flight demonstration. The demo can be accomplished successfully without achieving these goals, but these goals are to be used as a guideline for preparing for the mission. The goals are: (1) Mission duration of at least 24 hours (2) Loiter over heavy traffic to evaluate the data block issue identified during the Access 5 Airspace Operations Simulations (3) Document the contingency management process and lessons learned (4) Document the coordination process for Ground Control Stations (GCS) handoff (5) Document lessons learned regarding the process of flying in the NAS Preliminary planning for a notional mission to achieve the objectives and goals has been prepared. The planning is intended to serve as a guide for detailed planning of the AOD.

Trongale, Nicholas A.↗

Solar Dynamics Observatory On-Orbit Jitter Testing, Analysis, and Mitigation Plans

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was designed to understand the Sun and the Sun s influence on Earth. SDO was launched on February 11, 2010 carrying three scientific instruments: the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE). Both AIA and HMI are sensitive to high frequency pointing perturbations and have sub-arcsecond level line-of-sight (LOS) jitter requirements. Extensive modeling and analysis efforts were directed in estimating the amount of jitter disturbing the science instruments. To verify the disturbance models and to validate the jitter performance prior to launch, many jitter-critical components and subassemblies were tested either by the mechanism vendors or at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Although detailed analysis and assembly level tests were performed to obtain good jitter predictions, there were still several sources of uncertainties in the system. The structural finite element model did not have all the modes correlated to test data at high frequencies (greater than 50 Hz). The performance of the instrument stabilization system was not known exactly but was expected to be close to the analytical model. A true disturbance-to-LOS observatory level test was not available due to the tight schedule of the flight spacecraft, the cost in time and manpower, difficulties in creating gravity negation systems, and risks of damaging flight hardware. To protect the observatory jitter performance against model uncertainties, the SDO jitter team devised several on-orbit jitter reduction plans in addition to reserve margins on analysis results. Since some of these plans severely restricted the capabilities of several spacecraft components (e.g. wheels and High Gain Antennas), the SDO team performed on-orbit jitter tests to determine which jitter reduction plans, if any, were necessary to satisfy science LOS jitter requirements. The SDO on-orbit jitter tests were designed to satisfy the following four objectives: 1. Determine the acceptable reaction wheel operational speed range during Science Mode. 2. Determine HGA algorithm jitter parameters (number of stagger steps and enable/disable no-steprequests). 3. Determine acceptable EVE instrument filter wheels spin rates. 4. Determine if AIA instrument filter wheels excite the first AIA telescope structural mode. This paper provides detailed information on the SDO wheel jitter test plan, shows on-orbit jitter measurements and how ground predictions compare to those measurements, and describes the final jitter mitigation plan executed on SDO.

Liu, Kuo-Chia (Alice)↗

Radar Measurements of the LEO Orbital Debris Environment

Access to space and the preservation of the near-Earth space environment is of critical significance. Increased interest in issues surrounding space traffic management and the continued assessment and discussion of orbital debris at the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) illustrates the significance of the topic of orbital debris. There are currently over 20,000 tracked objects in the publicly available satellite catalog on Space-Track.org. The catalog is maintained by the US Air Force Space Command using a network of optical and radar ground-based sensors and is believed to be complete for a characteristic size of 10 cm or larger in low Earth orbit (LEO). Based on the work of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) over approximately the past 40 years it is understood that the small debris population (< 10 cm) increases by orders of magnitude as characteristic size decreases. With population estimates ranging from 500,000 to 1,000,000 small debris objects (> 5 mm) in orbit, it is currently not practical to track and maintain precision orbits on every object. Instead the NASA ODPO uses powerful ground-based radars to sample the low Earth Orbit (LEO) environment and assign approximate orbits to each detection. This poses an interesting signal processing challenge as we are trying to detect the smallest objects possible on the edge of the radar's sensitivity. For approximately the last 30 years, NASA ODPO has partnered with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) to utilize the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR - formerly the Long-Range Imaging Radar or simply Haystack) and the Haystack Auxiliary (HAX) radar to collect orbital debris radar data. Additionally, the ODPO collaborates with the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to use the Goldstone Solar System Radar. The orbital debris detections from these radars serve as inputs for statistical risk models used by the human spaceflight and satellite communities to assess risk to spacecraft posed by orbital debris. In this paper, we will describe the history of orbital debris radar measurements conducted by NASA, provide an overview of current radar measurements techniques and facilities, discuss the signal processing software used for orbital debris measurements and the inference of debris size and orbital parameters from these measurements, and discuss how orbital debris radar measurements are validated for use in models that are used throughout the aerospace industry.

Blackwell, Chris↗

Understanding failure in austenitic steels: Key considerations for molten salt storage in CSP applications

Owing to their excellent properties, austenitic stainless steels are extensively used in boilers, furnaces, molten salt tanks, and other applications that are subjected to extreme mechanical loads and high-temperature conditions. Their high corrosion and creep resistance make them suitable for high-temperature operating environments. Additionally, good fatigue resistance and favorable mechanical and visual properties are essential. However, the premature failure of several components at elevated temperatures has been previously reported. Although the failure analysis of components in service is complex, processes such as cold work and welding have been identified as contributing factors to the performance degradation of these steels. This study aims to analyze the various documented failure modes and mechanisms in austenitic steels, including creep, cracking, stress relaxation cracking, and fatigue, to better understand the multi-objective design requirements for these alloys as structural materials for high-temperature molten salt tanks in Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. Stabilized austenitic grades, such as AISI 347H, demonstrate superior resistance to creep and corrosion-related degradation when compared to non-stabilized grades like AISI 316L at temperatures relevant to concentrated solar power (CSP) applications. In contrast, nickel-based alloys offer enhanced corrosion resistance, albeit at a higher cost. This review underscores that creep, stress relaxation cracking, and thermo-mechanical fatigue are the predominant long-term failure risks in CSP hot tanks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Support for Reactor Operators in Case of Cyber-Security Threats (NEUP Final Report)

Increasing use of digital technology in nuclear power plants (NPPs) poses cyber-security as a crucial threat to public safety and to continuous energy production. Cyber-security risks are comprised of complex known and unknown interactions between various entities, system vulnerabilities, network protocols, human users and malicious attacks. There is little understanding or research geared towards plant operators’ response under cyber-security threats and operational procedures to cope with such threats. This is particularly critical when a cyber-security event masquerades as a safety incident or an evolving accident. Instead of leading operators to the remediation of the accident, the masked cyber event may lead them to circumvent the safety mechanisms of the plant. Given these challenges, the objective of this project is to develop a tool to characterize abnormal NPP events as “cyber” or “safety” incidents, and to further develop this tool as a real-time operator aid to assist in response to the incident. This NEUP Final Report summarizes the research efforts towards the above goals and the results in the following three aspects. First, a methodology for classifying abnormal NPP events as cyber-attacks or safety incidents was developed. This provides the basis for responding to potential cyber-attacks. In this methodology, the causal relationships between various variables (i.e., physical variables, network variables, and control variables) for a nuclear system under consideration are modeled using dynamic Bayesian networks. Based on observations of certain variables (i.e., the evidence), inference is performed to identify the state of hidden variables, which helps indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety incidents. The proposed methodology was applied to the full scope NPP simulator system at The Ohio State University as a case study. The result shows that the proposed methodology is capable of distinguishing between cyber-attacks and safety incidents. Second, a game-theoretic approach for responding to cyber-attacks on nuclear power plants was developed. This is the second major goal of the project, and the method is used to recommend optimal responses to reactor operators in the case of cyber-attacks. We consider two cases in this research. In the first case, the interaction between the defender (i.e., the reactor operator) and the attacker is modeled as a two-player, nonzero-sum, Markov game with an infinite time horizon. In the second case, we consider a semi-Markov game between the defender and the attacker within a finite time horizon. The model in the second case enables us to consider the time sensitive response of the defender. In each case, the method for deriving the Nash equilibrium is developed. The Nash Equilibrium of the game provides the valid prediction of both players’ actions because no single player can benefit from unilaterally deviating from the equilibrium policy if the other player adheres to his/hers, hence it provides the best response of the defender to cyber-attacks. The proposed method in each case is demonstrated through a simplified benchmark digital feedwater control system. Third, a prototype display is developed to integrate the above information. The prototype display depicts the communication information to the operator and incorporates the cyber-security tool developed by the team into the interface. It consists of the regular display in current control rooms, as well as a panel used to indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety events and a panel used to guide the operator’s response to detected cyber-attacks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Weld joint concepts for on-orbit repair of Space Station Freedom fluid system tube assemblies

Because Space Station Freedom (SSF) is an independent satellite, not depending upon another spacecraft for power, attitude control, or thermal regulation, it has a variety of tubular, fluid-carrying assemblies on-board. The systems of interest in this analysis provide breathing air (oxygen and nitrogen), a working fluid (two-phase anhydrous ammonia) for thermal control, and a monopropellant (hydrazine) for station reboost. The tube assemblies run both internally and externally with respect to the habitats. They are found in up to 50 ft. continuous lengths constructed of mostly AISI 316L stainless steel tubing, but also including some Inconel 625 nickel-iron and Monel 400 nickel-copper alloy tubing. The outer diameters (OD) of the tubes range from 0.25-1.25 inches, and the wall thickness between 0.028-.095 inches. The system operational pressures range from 377 psi (for the thermal control system) to 3400 psi (for the high pressure oxygen and nitrogen supply lines in the ECLSS). SSF is designed for a fifteen to thirty year mission. It is likely that the tubular assemblies (TA's) will sustain damage or fail during this lifetime such that they require repair or replacement. The nature of the damage will be combinations of punctures, chips, scratches, and creases and may be cosmetic or actually leaking. The causes of these hypothetical problems are postulated to be: (1) faulty or fatigued fluid joints--both QD's and butt-welds; (2) micro-meteoroid impacts; (3) collison with another man-made object; and (4) over-pressure strain or burst (system origin). While the current NASA baseline may be to temporarily patch the lines by clamping metal c-sections over the defect, and then perform high pressure injection of a sealing compound, it is clear that permanent repair of the line(s) is necessary. This permanent repair could be to replace the entire TA in the segment, or perhaps the segment itself, both alternatives being extremely expensive and risky. The former would likely require extensive EVA to release TA clamps and pose great risk to other engineering subsystems, and the latter would require major de-servicing of the Station.

Jolly, Steven D.↗

The Quest for an OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory) Re-Flight

The objective of the OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory) mission was to make the first space-based measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide with the accuracy needed to quantify sources and sinks of this important greenhouse gas. Unfortunately, the observatory was lost as a result of a launch vehicle failure on 24 February 2009. The JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) was directed to assess the options for the re-flight of the OCO instrument and recovery of the carbon-related measurement, and to understand and quantitatively assess the cost, schedule, and technical and programmatic risks of the identified options. The two most likely solutions were (1) a shared platform with the TIRS (Thermal Infrared Sensor) instrument and (2) a dedicated OSC (Orbital Sciences Corporation) LEOStar-2 spacecraft bus similar to that utilized for the original OCO mission. A joint OCO-TIRS mission study was commissioned and two specific options were examined. However, each presented technical challenges that would drive cost. It was determined that the best option was to rebuild the OCO observatory to the extent possible including another LEOStar-2 spacecraft bus. This lowest risk approach leverages the original OCO design and provides the shortest path to launch, which is targeted for no later than the February 2013 timeframe.

carbon↗

Integrated Mid-Continent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub Project Phase II (Final Summary Report)

The Phase II Integrated Midcontinent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub (IMSCS-HUB) is part of the Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) established by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). CarbonSAFE is phased to support the development of commercial-scale (50 million metric tonnes [Mt] over a 30-year period) carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in the United States. The IMSCS-HUB study area comprises carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources in Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska (the source corridor), and CO 2 sinks in Kansas and Nebraska (the storage corridor), representing the first large-scale project for the Midcontinent region. The stacked storage corridor is characterized by alternating sequences of deep saline formations, oil-bearing reservoirs, shale, and evaporite units that are conducive to vertically stacked CO 2 injection for geologic storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Three sites within the IMSCS-HUB stacked storage corridor were evaluated in Phase II for commercial CCUS feasibility: one in southwest-central Nebraska, Sleepy Hollow Field (SHF), a second in southwestern Nebraska near Madrid (Madrid), and a third in southwestern Kansas, the Patterson Site (composed of the Patterson, Heinitz, Hartland, and Oslo fields). In Phase II, the team assessed the feasibility of storage complexes at the potential storage sites in Nebraska and Kansas to support a commercial-scale storage hub that integrates proven CO 2 capture technology and transport from nearby ethanol sources. Building on lessons learned from the DOE-NETL Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs), the Project Team has identified a clear strategy to meet DOE’s 2025 objective of commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) implementation by developing a CO 2 market and infrastructure that relies on multiple ethanol-based CO 2 sources in the short term and the incorporation of multiple coal-fired power plant CO 2 sources when commercial capture is economically viable. The team also leveraged the updated 45Q tax credit to develop capture and transport infrastructure. Commercial-scale CCUS is feasible at two candidate storage sites studied, the Madrid, Nebraska Site and the Patterson Site in Kearny County, Kansas. The Sleepy Hollow Field in Nebraska was found to be an attractive candidate for stacked storage with CO 2 -EOR (Battelle 2020e). Outreach efforts facilitated engagement from industry, government, and research sectors (Battelle and GPI, 2020) and an outreach plan for future phases of the project was developed to address issues that are of concern in the IMSCS-HUB project area (Battelle, 2020f). All components of a CCUS project were determined to be feasible in the IMSCS-HUB region and Risk Mitigation Plan was developed and includes strategies to mitigate risks associated with each project component (Battelle, 2020j). A roadmap was developed to obtain the required UIC permits for an integrated CCUS project (Battelle, 2020k). The regional storage resource characterization demonstrated significant opportunity for commercial-scale projects in the IMSCS-HUB storage corridor with 577.4 Mt of stacked CO 2 storage capacity and the potential to produce 181.9 MMbbls of oil via EOR across 17 individual storage areas (Battelle and ARI, 2020). The pipeline assessment study found viable pipeline routes that connected 45Q-eligible ethanol plants, coal fired power plants, and other sources in the IMSCS-HUB corridor. The comprehensive results of subsurface characterization, modeling efforts, outreach assessment, and regulatory analysis from were integrated to develop a Detailed Commercial Development Plan for the IMSCS-HUB (Battelle, 2020n). Commercialization efforts will involve obtaining Class VI UIC permits, establishing and finalizing the pipeline route, and evaluating capture projects at participating CO 2 sources. Phases I and II of the IMSCS-HUB CarbonSAFE provide a strong foundation for safely, efficiently, and cost-effectively characterizing and permitting commercial-scale project sites in the region. The plan for implementation of commercial-scale CCUS projects in the IMSCS-HUB is aligned with the objectives of CarbonSAFE Phase III: Site Characterization and CO 2 Capture Assessment.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Tai Chi Training in Cardiorespiratory Fitness of Elderly People

Objectives. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of Tai Chi on cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in elderly people using meta-analysis. Methods. This study used seven electronic databases and data retrieved from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the role of Tai Chi on CRF in the elderly. All these 24 RCTs were screened and selected from 7 literature databases. The Stata 11.2 software (StataCorp, USA) was used for the meta-analysis, subgroup analysis, and bias test, while the Cochrane Collaboration’s tool was used for the assessment of the risk of bias (RoB). 4 researchers independently participated in sample selection, data extraction, and RoB assessment. Results. Following the inclusion criteria, 24 eligible studies were included in our analysis. The meta-analysis indicated that Tai Chi practice significantly increased the maximum rate of oxygen consumption (VO2 max) (weighted mean difference (WMD) = 3.76, 95% CI: 1.25 to 6.26, P < 0.1 ), leading to an overall reduction in the heart rate (HR) (WMD = −1.84, 95% CI: −2.04 to −1.63, P ≤ 0.001 ) and an increase in the O2 pulse (WMD = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.60 to 1.28, P ≤ 0.001 ) in individuals who practiced Tai Chi regularly compared with those who did not. The subgroup analysis suggested that overall in those who practiced Tai Chi, males (WMD = 1.48, 95% CI: 0.85 to 2.12, P ≤ 0.001 ) had higher O2 pulse than females (WMD = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.33 to 1.12, P ≤ 0.001 ). The subgroup analysis also showed an increase in the vital capacity (VC) (WMD = 316.05, 95% CI: 239.74 to 392.35, P ≤ 0.001 ) in individuals practicing Tai Chi. When the samples were further stratified by Tai Chi practicing time, the subgroup analysis suggested that individuals practicing Tai Chi over a period of 24 weeks showed no significant difference in VC (WMD = 82.95, 95% CI: -98.34 to 264.23, P = 0.370 ), while those practicing Tai Chi over a period of 48 weeks showed a significant increase (WMD = 416.62, 95% CI: 280.68 to 552.56, P ≤ 0.001 ). Furthermore, the subgroup analysis demonstrated that the increase in VC is significantly correlated with the Tai Chi practicing time (WMD = 344.97, 95% CI: 227.88 to 442.06, P ≤ 0.001 ). Conclusion. Regular Tai Chi practice could improve the CRF in the elderly, as indicated by significant improvement in indicators including VO2max, O2pulse, VC, and HR. However, gender and practice time might influence the overall beneficial outcomes.

Tan, Tianyang↗

Improving Solar and Solar+Storage Screening Techniques to Reduce Utility Interconnection Time and Costs (Final Technical Report)

Residential PV installations have increased rapidly over the last decade, and the increased application volume has caused permitting delays and lower overall adoption rates. In this project, we developed and evaluated whether data-driven secondary modeling and screening techniques can help utilities assess customer applications more accurately than traditional screening shortcuts. Secondary topologies are predicted using decision trees and commonly available information, such as service transformer, customer, and street locations. Conductors were predicted using a logistic regression method based on real world object (RWO) types, service transformer ratings, conductor length, and distance to transformer. After developing the combined primary and secondary distribution network model, hosting capacity results were used to train a random forest model to predict the pass/fail likelihood of a customer application. Powerflow based models with predicted secondaries and data-driven methods both increased the screening success rate, relative to common utility heuristics, by as much as 55 percentage points. Data-driven screening techniques were described by one utility as a "right-sized" approach for residential customers given the low-risk of small errors and the high-cost of accurate modeling.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗