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DOE OSTI2017

Various Local Heating Events in the Earliest Phase of Flux Emergence

Emerging flux regions (EFRs) are known to exhibit various sporadic local heating events in the lower atmosphere. To investigate the characteristics of these events, especially to link the photospheric magnetic fields and atmospheric dynamics, we analyze Hinode, Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS), and Solar Dynamics Observatory data of a new EFR in NOAA AR 12401. Out of 151 bright points (BPs) identified in Hinode/SOT Ca images, 29 are overlapped by an SOT/SP scan. Seven BPs in the EFR center possess mixed-polarity magnetic backgrounds in the photosphere. Their IRIS UV spectra (e.g., Si iv 1402.8 Å) are strongly enhanced and red- or blueshifted, with tails reaching ±150 km s{sup −1}, which is highly suggestive of bi-directional jets; each brightening lasts for 10–15 minutes, leaving flare-like light curves. Most of this group show bald patches, the U-shaped photospheric magnetic loops. Another 10 BPs are found in unipolar regions at the EFR edges. They are generally weaker in UV intensities and exhibit systematic redshifts with Doppler speeds up to 40 km s{sup −1}, which could exceed the local sound speed in the transition region. Both types of BPs show signs of strong temperature increase in the low chromosphere. These observational results support the physical picture that heating events in the EFR center are due to magnetic reconnection within cancelling undular fields like Ellerman bombs, while the peripheral heating events are due to shocks or strong compressions caused by fast downflows along the overlying arch filament system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Velocity Anisotropy in Self-gravitating Molecular Clouds. I. Simulation

The complex interplay between turbulence, magnetic fields, and self-gravity leads to the formation of molecular clouds out of the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM). One avenue of studying this interplay is by analyzing statistical features derived from observations, where the interpretation of these features is greatly facilitated by comparisons with numerical simulations. Here we focus on the statistical anisotropy present in synthetic maps of velocity centroid data, which we derive from three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of a turbulent, magnetized, self-gravitating patch of ISM. We study how the orientation and magnitude of the velocity anisotropy correlate with the magnetic field and with the structures generated by gravitational collapse. Motivated by recent observational constraints, our simulations focus on the supersonic (sonic Mach number M≈2--17) but sub- to trans-alfvénic (alfvénic Mach number M{sub A}≈0.2--1.2) turbulence regime, and we consider clouds that are barely to mildly magnetically supercritical (mass-to-flux ratio equal to once or twice the critical value). Additionally we explore the impact of the turbulence driving mechanism (solenoidal or compressive) on the velocity anisotropy. While we confirm previous findings that the velocity anisotropy generally aligns well with the plane-of-sky magnetic field, our inclusion of the effects of self-gravity reveals that in regions of higher column density, the velocity anisotropy may be destroyed or even reoriented to align with the gravitationally formed structures. We provide evidence that this effect is not necessarily due to the increase of M{sub A} inside the high-density regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Global Crustal Dynamics of Magnetars in Relation to Their Bright X-Ray Outbursts

This paper considers the yielding response of a neutron star crust to smooth, unbalanced Maxwell stresses imposed at the core–crust boundary, and the coupling of the dynamic crust to the external magnetic field. Stress buildup and yielding in a magnetar crust are global phenomena: an elastic distortion radiating from one plastically deforming zone is shown to dramatically increase the creep rate in distant zones. Runaway creep to dynamical rates is shown to be possible, being enhanced by in situ heating and suppressed by thermal conduction and shearing of an embedded magnetic field. A global and time-dependent model of elastic, plastic, magnetic, and thermal evolution is developed. Fault-like structures develop naturally, and a range of outburst timescales is observed. Transient events with time profiles similar to giant magnetar flares (millisecond rise, ∼0.1 s duration, and decaying power-law tails) result from runaway creep that starts in localized sub-kilometer-sized patches and spreads across the crust. A one-dimensional model of stress relaxation in the vertically stratified crust shows that a modest increase in applied stress allows embedded magnetic shear to escape the star over ∼3–10 ms, dissipating greater energy if the exterior field is already sheared. Several such zones coupled to each other naturally yield a burst of duration ∼0.1 s, as is observed over a wide range of burst energies. The collective interaction of many plastic zones forces an overstability of global elastic modes of the crust, consistent with quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) activity extending over ∼100 s. Giant flares probably involve sudden meltdown in localized zones, with high-frequency (≫100 Hz) QPOs corresponding to standing Alfvén waves within these zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Magnetic Flux Emergence and Decay Rates for Preceder and Follower Sunspots Observed with HMI

We quantify the emergence and decay rates of preceder (p) and follower (f) sunspots within 10 active regions from 2010 to 2014 using Space-weather Helioseismic Magnetic Imager Active Region Patch data. The sunspots are small to mid-sized regions and contain a signed flux within a single polarity sunspot of (1.1--6.5)×10{sup 21} Mx. The net unsigned flux within the regions, including plage, ranges from (5.1--20)×10{sup 21} Mx. Rates are calculated with and without intensity contours to differentiate between sunspot formation and flux emergence. Signed flux emergence rates, calculated with intensity contours, for the p (f) spots average 6.8(4.9)×10{sup 19} Mx hr{sup −1}, while decay rates are −1.9(−3.4)×10{sup 19} Mx hr{sup −1}. The mean, signed flux emergence rate of the regions, including plage, is 7.1×10{sup 19} Mx hr{sup −1}, for a mean peak flux of 5.9×10{sup 21} Mx. Using a synthesis of these results and others reported previously, there is a clear trend for larger flux regions to emerge faster than smaller ones. Observed emergence rates (dϕ/dt, Mx hr{sup −1}) scale with total signed peak flux, ϕ-tilde {sub max}, as a power law with an exponent of 0.36, i.e., dϕ/dt=A ϕ-tilde {sub max}{sup 0.36}. The observed rates may assist in constraining the boundary and initial conditions in simulations which already demonstrate increased rates for flux tubes with higher buoyancy and twist, or in the presence of a strong upflow. Overall, the observed emergence rates are smaller than those in simulations, which may indicate a slower rise of the flux in the interior than what is captured in simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Kiloparsec-scale Simulations of Star Formation in Disk Galaxies. IV. Regulation of Galactic Star Formation Rates by Stellar Feedback

Star formation from the interstellar medium of galactic disks is a basic process controlling the evolution of galaxies. Understanding the star formation rate (SFR) in a local patch of a disk with a given gas mass is thus an important challenge for theoretical models. Here we simulate a kiloparsec region of a disk, following the evolution of self-gravitating molecular clouds down to subparsec scales, as they form stars that then inject feedback energy by dissociating and ionizing UV photons and supernova explosions. We assess the relative importance of each feedback mechanism. We find that H{sub 2}-dissociating feedback results in the largest absolute reduction in star formation compared to the run with no feedback. Subsequently adding photoionization feedback produces a more modest reduction. Our fiducial models that combine all three feedback mechanisms yield, without fine-tuning, SFRs that are in excellent agreement with observations, with H{sub 2}-dissociating photons playing a crucial role. Models that only include supernova feedback—a common method in galaxy evolution simulations—settle to similar SFRs, but with very different temperatures and chemical states of the gas, and with very different spatial distributions of young stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Predicting Solar Flares Using SDO /HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and the Random Forest Algorithm

Adverse space-weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, the prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence, while flare prediction efforts utilizing this unprecedented data source are still limited. Here we report results of flare prediction using physical parameters provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and related data products. We survey X-ray flares that occurred from 2010 May to 2016 December and categorize their source regions into four classes (B, C, M, and X) according to the maximum GOES magnitude of flares they generated. We then retrieve SHARP-related parameters for each selected region at the beginning of its flare date to build a database. Finally, we train a machine-learning algorithm, called random forest (RF), to predict the occurrence of a certain class of flares in a given active region within 24 hr, evaluate the classifier performance using the 10-fold cross-validation scheme, and characterize the results using standard performance metrics. Compared to previous works, our experiments indicate that using the HMI parameters and RF is a valid method for flare forecasting with fairly reasonable prediction performance. To our knowledge, this is the first time that RF has been used to make multiclass predictions of solar flares. We also find that the total unsigned quantities of vertical current, current helicity, and flux near the polarity inversion line are among the most important parameters for classifying flaring regions into different classes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Solar Active Region Coronal Jets. II. Triggering and Evolution of Violent Jets

We study a series of X-ray-bright, rapidly evolving active region coronal jets outside the leading sunspot of AR 12259, using Hinode/X-ray telescope, Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) data. The detailed evolution of such rapidly evolving “violent” jets remained a mystery after our previous investigation of active region jets. The jets we investigate here erupt from three localized subregions, each containing a rapidly evolving (positive) minority-polarity magnetic-flux patch bathed in a (majority) negative-polarity magnetic-flux background. At least several of the jets begin with eruptions of what appear to be thin (thickness ≲2{sup ′′}) miniature-filament (minifilament) “strands” from a magnetic neutral line where magnetic flux cancelation is ongoing, consistent with the magnetic configuration presented for coronal-hole jets in Sterling et al. (2016). Some jets strands are difficult/impossible to detect, perhaps due to, e.g., their thinness, obscuration by surrounding bright or dark features, or the absence of erupting cool-material minifilaments in those jets. Tracing in detail the flux evolution in one of the subregions, we find bursts of strong jetting occurring only during times of strong flux cancelation. Averaged over seven jetting episodes, the cancelation rate was ∼1.5×10{sup 19} Mx hr{sup −1}. An average flux of ∼5×10{sup 18} Mx canceled prior to each episode, arguably building up ∼10{sup 28}–10{sup 29} erg of free magnetic energy per jet. From these and previous observations, we infer that flux cancelation is the fundamental process responsible for the pre-eruption build up and triggering of at least many jets in active regions, quiet regions, and coronal holes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Successive Two-sided Loop Jets Caused by Magnetic Reconnection between Two Adjacent Filamentary Threads

We present observational analysis of two successive two-sided loop jets observed by the ground-based New Vacuum Solar Telescope and the space-borne Solar Dynamics Observatory . The two successive two-sided loop jets manifested similar evolution processes and both were associated with the interaction of two small-scale adjacent filamentary threads, magnetic emerging, and cancellation processes at the jet’s source region. High temporal and high spatial resolution observations reveal that the two adjacent ends of the two filamentary threads are rooted in opposite magnetic polarities within the source region. The two threads approached each other, and then an obvious brightening patch is observed at the interaction position. Subsequently, a pair of hot plasma ejections are observed heading in opposite directions along the paths of the two filamentary threads at a typical speed for two-sided loop jets of the order 150 km s{sup −1}. Close to the end of the second jet, we report the formation of a bright hot loop structure at the source region, which suggests the formation of new loops during the interaction. Based on the observational results, we propose that the observed two-sided loop jets are caused by magnetic reconnection between the two adjacent filamentary threads, largely different from the previous scenario that a two-sided loop jet is generated by magnetic reconnection between an emerging bipole and the overlying horizontal magnetic fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Comparison of Maps and Power Spectra Determined from South Pole Telescope and Planck Data

We study the consistency of 150 GHz data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and 143 GHz data from the \textit{Planck} satellite over the 2540 $\text{deg}^2$ patch of sky covered by the SPT-SZ survey. We first visually compare the maps and find that the map residuals appear consistent with noise after we account for differences in angular resolution and filtering. To make a more quantitative comparison, we calculate (1) the cross-spectrum between two independent halves of SPT 150 GHz data, (2) the cross-spectrum between two independent halves of \textit{Planck} 143 GHz data, and (3) the cross-spectrum between SPT 150 GHz and \textit{Planck} 143 GHz data. We find the three cross-spectra are well-fit (PTE = 0.30) by the null hypothesis in which both experiments have measured the same sky map up to a single free parameter characterizing the relative calibration between the two. As a by-product of this analysis, we improve the calibration of SPT data by nearly an order of magnitude, from 2.6\% to 0.3\% in power; the best-fit power calibration factor relative to the most recent published SPT calibration is $1.0174 \pm 0.0033$. Finally, we compare all three cross-spectra to the full-sky \textit{Planck} $143 \times 143$ power spectrum and find a hint ($\sim$1.5$\sigma$) for differences in the power spectrum of the SPT-SZ footprint and the full-sky power spectrum, which we model and fit as a power law in the spectrum. The best-fit value of this tilt is consistent between the three cross-spectra in the SPT-SZ footprint, implying that the source of this tilt---assuming it is real---is a sample variance fluctuation in the SPT-SZ region relative to the full sky. Despite the precision of our tests, we find no evidence for systematic errors in either data set. The consistency of cosmological parameters derived from these datasets is discussed in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Radius-to-frequency Mapping and FRB Frequency Drifts

We build a model of radius-to-frequency mapping in magnetospheres of neutron stars and apply it to frequency drifts observed in fast radio bursts (FRBs). We assume that an emission patch propagates along the dipolar magnetic field lines, producing coherent emission with frequency, direction, and polarization defined by the local magnetic field. The observed temporal evolution of the frequency depends on the relativistic effects of time contraction and the curvature of the magnetic field lines. The model generically produces linear scaling of the drift rate, $\dot{\omega}$ ∝-${\omega}$, matching both numerically and parametrically the rates observed in FBRs; a more complicated behavior of $\dot{\omega}$ is also possible. Fast rotating magnetospheres produce higher drifts rates for similar viewing parameters than the slowly rotating ones. In the case of repeaters, the same source may show variable drift patterns depending on the observing phase. We expect rotational of polarization position angle through a burst, though by smaller amount than in radio pulsars. All of these findings compare favorably with properties of FBRs, strengthening their possible loci in the magnetospheres of neutron stars.

Magnetars↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of the Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization Lensing Power Spectrum from Two Years of POLARBEAR Data

Here, we present a measurement of the gravitational lensing deflection power spectrum reconstructed with two seasons of cosmic microwave background polarization data from the Polarbear experiment. Observations were taken at 150 GHz from 2012 to 2014 and surveyed three patches of sky totaling 30 square degrees. We test the consistency of the lensing spectrum with a cold dark matter cosmology and reject the no-lensing hypothesis at a confidence of 10.9σ, including statistical and systematic uncertainties. We observe a value of A L = 1.33 ± 0.32 (statistical) ±0.02 (systematic) ±0.07 (foreground) using all polarization lensing estimators, which corresponds to a 24% accurate measurement of the lensing amplitude. Compared to the analysis of the first-year data, we have improved the breadth of both the suite of null tests and the error terms included in the estimation of systematic contamination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Molecular Hydrogen in Low-metallicity Galaxies

We use a suite of hydrodynamics simulations of the interstellar medium (ISM) within a galactic disk, which includes radiative transfer, a nonequilibrium model of molecular hydrogen, and a realistic model for star formation and feedback, to study the structure of the ISM and H 2 abundance as a function of local ISM properties. We show that the star formation rate and structure of the ISM are sensitive to the metallicity of the gas with a progressively smoother density distribution with decreasing metallicity. In addition to the well-known trend of the H I–H 2 transition shifting to higher densities with decreasing metallicity, the maximum achieved molecular fraction in the ISM drops drastically at Z ≲ 0.2 Z ⊙ as the formation time of H 2 becomes much longer than a typical lifetime of dense regions of the ISM. We present accurate fitting formulae for both volumetric and projected ƒ H 2 measured on different scales as a function of gas metallicity, UV radiation field, and gas density. We show that when the formulae are applied to the patches in the simulated galaxy, the overall molecular gas mass is reproduced to better than a factor of ≲1.5 across the entire range of metallicities and scales. We also show that the presented fit is considerably more accurate than any of the previous ƒ H 2 models and fitting formulae in the low-metallicity regime. The fit can thus be used for modeling molecular gas in low-resolution simulations and semi-analytic models of galaxy formation in the dwarf and high-redshift regimes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

CMB-S4: Foreground-cleaning Pipeline Comparison for Measuring Primordial Gravitational Waves

We compare multiple foreground-cleaning pipelines for estimating the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, using simulated maps of the planned CMB-S4 experiment within the context of the South Pole Deep Patch. To evaluate robustness, we analyze bias and uncertainty on r across various foreground suites using map-based simulations. The foreground-cleaning methods include: a parametric maximum likelihood approach applied to auto- and cross-power spectra between frequency maps; a map-based parametric maximum-likelihood method; and a harmonic-space internal linear combination using frequency maps. We summarize the conceptual basis of each method to highlight their similarities and differences. To better probe the impact of foreground residuals, we implement an iterative internal delensing step, leveraging a map-based pipeline to generate a lensing B-mode template from the large aperture telescope frequency maps. Our results show that the performance of the three approaches is comparable for simple and intermediate-complexity foregrounds, with σ(r) ranging from 3–5 ×10 −4 . However, biases at the 1σ–2σ level appear when analyzing more complex forms of foreground emission. By extending the baseline pipelines to marginalize over foreground residuals, we demonstrate that contamination can be reduced to within statistical uncertainties, albeit with a pipeline-dependent impact on σ(r), which translates to a detection significance between 2σ and 4σ for an input value of r = 0.003. These findings suggest varying levels of maturity among the tested pipelines, with the auto- and cross-spectra-based approach demonstrating the best stability and overall performance. Moreover, given the extremely low noise levels, mutual validation of independent foreground-cleaning pipelines is essential to ensure the robustness of any potential detection.

astronomy data analysis↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Tale of Two Emergences: Sunrise II Observations of Emergence Sites in a Solar Active Region

In 2013 June, the two scientific instruments on board the second Sunrise mission witnessed, in detail, a small-scale magnetic flux emergence event as part of the birth of an active region. The Imaging Magnetograph Experiment (IMaX) recorded two small (∼5{sup ′′}) emerging flux patches in the polarized filtergrams of a photospheric Fe i spectral line. Meanwhile, the Sunrise Filter Imager (SuFI) captured the highly dynamic chromospheric response to the magnetic fields pushing their way through the lower solar atmosphere. The serendipitous capture of this event offers a closer look at the inner workings of active region emergence sites. In particular, it reveals in meticulous detail how the rising magnetic fields interact with the granulation as they push through the Sun’s surface, dragging photospheric plasma in their upward travel. The plasma that is burdening the rising field slides along the field lines, creating fast downflowing channels at the footpoints. The weight of this material anchors this field to the surface at semi-regular spatial intervals, shaping it in an undulatory fashion. Finally, magnetic reconnection enables the field to release itself from its photospheric anchors, allowing it to continue its voyage up to higher layers. This process releases energy that lights up the arch-filament systems and heats the surrounding chromosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Revised Catalog of GALEX Ultraviolet Sources. I. The All-Sky Survey: GUVcat-AIS

The Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) imaged the sky in two ultraviolet (UV) bands, far-UV (FUV, λ {sub eff} ∼ 1528 Å), and near-UV (NUV, λ {sub eff} ∼ 2310 Å), delivering the first comprehensive sky surveys at these wavelengths. The GALEX database contains FUV and NUV images, ∼500 million source measurements and over 100,000 low-resolution UV spectra. The UV surveys are a unique resource for statistical studies of hot stellar objects, z ≲ 2 QSOs, star-forming galaxies, nebulae and the interstellar medium, and provide a roadmap for planning future UV instrumentation and follow-up observing programs. We present science-enhanced, “clean” catalogs of GALEX UV sources, with useful tags to facilitate scientific investigations. The catalogs are an improved and expanded version of our previous catalogs of UV sources (BCScat). With respect to BCScat, we have patched 640 fields for which the pipeline had improperly coadded non-overlapping observations, and we provide a version with a larger sky coverage (about 10%) by relaxing the restriction to the central area of the GALEX field to 1.°1 diameter (GUVcat-AIS-fov055), as well as the cleaner, more restrictive version using only the 1° central portion of each field as in BCScat (GUVcat-AIS-fov050). We added new tags to facilitate selection and cleaning of statistical samples for science applications: we flag sources within the footprint of extended objects (nearby galaxies, stellar clusters) so that these regions can be excluded for estimating source density. As in our previous catalogs, in GUVcat duplicate measurements of the same source are removed, so that each astrophysical object has only one entry. Such a unique-source catalog is needed to study the density and distributions of sources, and to match UV sources with catalogs at other wavelengths. The catalog includes all observations from the All-Sky Imaging Survey (AIS), the survey with the largest area coverage, with both FUV and NUV detectors exposed: over 28,700 fields, made up of a total of 57,000 observations (“visits”). The total area covered, when overlaps are removed and gaps are accounted for, is 24,790 square degrees for GUVcat-AIS-fov055 (GUVcat-AIS-fov055) and 22,125 square degrees for (GUVcat-AIS-fov050). The total numbers of “unique” AIS sources (eliminating duplicate measurements) are 82,992,086 (GUVcat-AIS-fov055) and 69,772,677 (GUVcat-AIS-fov050). The typical depth of the GUVcat-AIS catalog is FUV = 19.9, NUV = 20.8 AB mag.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Supernova-driven Turbulent Metal Mixing in High-redshift Galactic Disks: Metallicity Fluctuations in the Interstellar Medium and its Imprints on Metal-poor Stars in the Milky Way

The extent to which turbulence mixes gas in the face of recurrent infusions of fresh metals by supernovae (SN) could help provide important constraints on the local star formation conditions. This includes predictions of the metallicity dispersion among metal-poor stars, which suggests that the interstellar medium was not very well mixed at these early times. The purpose of this Letter is to help isolate, via a series of numerical experiments, some of the key processes that regulate turbulent mixing of SN elements in galactic disks. We study the gas interactions in small simulated patches of a galaxy disk with the goal of resolving the small-scale mixing effects of metals at parsec scales, which enables us to measure the turbulent diffusion coefficient in various galaxy environments. By investigating the statistics of variations of α elements in these simulations, we are able to derive constraints not only on the allowed range of intrinsic yield variations in SN explosions but also on the star formation history of the Milky Way. We argue that the observed dispersion of [Mg/Fe] in metal-poor halo stars is compatible with the star-forming conditions expected in dwarf satellites or in an early low-star-forming Milky Way progenitor. In particular, metal variations in stars that have not been phase-mixed can be used to infer the star-forming conditions of disrupted dwarf satellites.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on Inflationary Gravitational Waves with Two Years of SPT-3G Data

We present a measurement of the $B$-mode polarization power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background anisotropies at 32 $\le$$\ell$$<$ 502 for three bands centered at 95, 150, and 220 GHz using data from the SPT-3G receiver on the South Pole Telescope. This work uses SPT-3G observations from the 2019 and 2020 winter observing seasons of a $\sim$1500 deg$^2$ patch of sky that directly overlaps with fields observed with the BICEP/Keck family of telescopes, and covers part of the proposed Simons Observatory and CMB-S4 deep fields. Employing new techniques for mitigating polarized atmospheric noise, the SPT-3G data demonstrates a white noise level of 9.3 (6.7) $\mu$K-arcmin at $\ell \sim 500$ for the 95 GHz (150 GHz) data, with a $1/\ell$ noise knee at $\ell$=128 (182). We fit the observed six auto- and cross-frequency $B$-mode power spectra to a model including lensed $\Lambda$CDM $B$-modes and a combination of Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds. This work characterizes foregrounds in the vicinity of the BICEP/Keck survey area, finding foreground power consistent with that reported by the BICEP/Keck collaboration within the same region, and a factor of $\sim$ 3 higher power over the full SPT-3G survey area. Using SPT-3G data over the BICEP/Keck survey area, we place a 95% upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio of $r < 0.25$ and find the statistical uncertainty on $r$ to be $\sigma(r) = 0.067$.

Zebrowski, J. A. [Chicago U., KICP; Chicago U., As↗

DOE OSTI2022

Representativeness assessment of the pan-Arctic eddy covariance site network and optimized future enhancements

Abstract. Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, a growing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established across the Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network's representativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking. This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data across sites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbon budgets and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here > = 60∘ N) EC sites, which has also been made available online (https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/, last access: 25 January 2022). Our database currently comprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 of these active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map the representativeness of this EC network, we evaluated the similarity between environmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those within the larger Arctic study domain based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphic variables. This allows us to assess a general level of similarity between ecosystem conditions within the domain, while not necessarily reflecting changes in greenhouse gas flux rates directly. We define two metrics based on this representativeness score: one that measures whether a location is represented by an EC tower with similar characteristics (ER1) and a second for which we assess if a minimum level of representation for statistically rigorous extrapolation is met (ER4). We find that while half of the domain is represented by at least one tower, only a third has enough towers in similar locations to allow reliable extrapolation. When we consider methane measurements or year-round (including wintertime) measurements, the values drop to about 1/5 and 1/10 of the domain, respectively. With the majority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions were assigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large parts of Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as underrepresented. Across the Arctic, mountainous regions were particularly poorly represented by the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations or upgrades of existing sites that optimally enhance the representativeness of the current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve the representativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 %, upgrading as few as 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes or remain active during wintertime can improve their respective ER1 network coverage by 28 % to 33 %. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearly superior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading to substantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively small investments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗