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NASA NTRS2012

Receivers Gather Data for Climate, Weather Prediction

Signals from global positioning system (GPS) satellites are now being used for more than just location and navigation information. By looking at the radio waves from GPS satellites, a technology developed at NASA s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) not only precisely calculates its position, but can also use a technique known as radio occultation to help scientists study the Earth s atmosphere and gravity field to improve weather forecasts, monitor climate change, and enhance space weather research. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), a nonprofit group of universities in Boulder, Colorado, compares radio occultation to the appearance of a pencil when viewed though a glass of water. The water molecules change the path of visible light waves so that the pencil appears bent, just like molecules in the air bend GPS radio signals as they pass through (or are occulted by) the atmosphere. Through measurements of the amount of bending in the signals, scientists can construct detailed images of the ionosphere (the energetic upper part of the atmosphere) and also gather information about atmospheric density, pressure, temperature, and moisture. Once collected, this data can be input into weather forecasting and climate models for weather prediction and climate studies. Traditionally, such information is obtained through the use of weather balloons. In 1998, JPL started developing a new class of GPS space science receivers, called Black Jack, that could take precise measurements of how GPS signals are distorted or delayed along their way to the receiver. By 2006, the first demonstration of a GPS radio occultation constellation was launched through a collaboration among Taiwan s National Science Council and National Space Organization, the U.S. National Science Foundation, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and other Federal entities. Called the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), JPL was responsible for designing COSMIC s primary instrument - based on its revolutionary Black Jack receiver.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2025

Remote Influence of Andean Convection on Amazonian Rainfall and Its Mechanisms

Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 produce too much precipitation over the Andes but too little over the Amazon or the Wet Andes-Dry Amazon (WADA) bias pattern. Unlike the conventional view that convection parameterization and land model deficiencies can contribute to Amazonian rainfall biases, we approach this long-standing biased model behavior through the lens of Andean convection. Using Community Earth System Model v1.1 and focusing on the wet season, our mechanism-denial experiments demonstrate that Andean convection notably reduces precipitation over the Amazon during austral summer. The Andean forced Amazonian response operates on weather timescale. Furthermore, the reduction of Amazonian rainfall is detectable within a few hours after initial Andean forcing. The precipitation response is primarily driven by variations in the moisture budget and is moderated by changes in convective available potential energy over the Amazon. Changes in the total advection of moisture over the Amazon are dominated by the vertical advection term and can be attributed to discrepancies in the dynamic omega field. In the experiments, the Andean east flank region is scrutinized where the vertical velocity and moisture fields play an intermediary role for the Andean driven WADA connection. The Andean forcing induces descending anomalies on the Andean east flank. The disturbances of wind and geopotential fields over the Andean east flank propagate eastward via Kelvin waves. Over the Amazon, descending anomalies and advective drying lead to reduction of mid-to-high level cloud, increase of shortwave cloud forcing and surface net radiation, and enhancement of themodynamic stability and rainfall reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electrically Engaged UnduLation (EEL) Marine Energy System

Current technologies at the forefront of instrumentation for ocean observation through acoustic mapping are powered by batteries that cannot achieve the lasting durations required for high-resolution measurements. Pyro-E has designed an Electrically Engaged unduLation (EEL) system capable of in situ energy harvest and deployment in sub-sea configurations. By extracting kinetic energy from the ocean, EEL proposes to provide power output ranging from 1 mW to 1,000 mW. Such a magnitude of power can sustain active instrumentation with onboard processing of data and over-the-horizon telemetry. Pyro-E and Oak Ridge National Laboratory have utilized software tools and powerful computing resources to develop a techno-economic design of the EEL capable of harvesting 5 W. The material response of the EEL under simulated hydromechanical loads is described through time-accurate predictions. All physical tests were conducted by Pyro-E to guide simulations at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS2006

Aquarius: A Mission to Monitor Sea Surface Salinity from Space

Aquarius is a combination radiometer and scatterometer (radar) operating at L-band (1.413 GHz for the radiometer and 1.26 GHz for the scatterometer). The primary instrument for measuring salinity is the radiometer. The scatterometer will provide a correction for surface roughness (waves) which is one of the largest potential sources of error in the retrieval. Unique features of the sensor are the large reflector (2.5 meter offset fed reflector with three feeds), polarimetric operation, and the tight thermal control. The three feeds produce three beams arranged to image in pushbroom fashion looking to the side of the orbit away from the sun to avoid sunglint. Polarimetric operation is included to assist in correcting for Faraday rotation which can be important at L-band. The tight thermal control is necessary to meet stability requirements (less than 0.12K drift over 7 days) which have been imposed to assist in meeting the science requirements for the retrieval of surface salinity (0.2 psu). The sensor will be in a sun-synchronous orbit at about 650 km with equatorial crossings of 6ad6pm (ascending at 6 pm). The objective is to monitor the seasonal and interannual variation of the large scale features of the surface salinity field in the open ocean. To accomplish this, the measurement goals are a spatial resolution of 100 km and retrieval accuracy of 0.2 psu globally on a monthly basis. Aquarius is being developed by NASA and is a partnership between JPL and the Goddard Space Flight Center. The SAC-D mission is being developed by CONAE and will include the spacecraft and several additional instruments, including visible and infrared cameras and a microwave radiometer to monitor rain and wind velocity over the oceans, and sea ice.

LeVine, D. M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Adjustable Stiffness Torsional Magnetic Spring with a Linear Stroke Length

This paper presents the analysis, mechanical design, and proof-of-principle experimental testing of a new type of adjustable stiffness torsional magnetic spring for an ocean generator application. Unlike prior published designs the rotary magnetic spring is shown to have a highly linear adjustable stroke length. The presented torsional spring is experimentally shown to be able to create a ± 45° angular stroke range with a peak torque of ± 39.1 N·m. The stiffness is adjusted by using a stepper motor to axially adjust the axial magnet offset. The stepper motor contains a brake so that power is not expended when maintaining a desired spring stiffness. It is shown that by using a series spring arrangement the stroke length can be extended to ± 90°.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deployment Readiness Framework for Marine Energy

As electricity prices continue to rise and extreme weather events related to climate change become more frequent, many island and remote coastal communities are prioritizing their energy future. Isolated locations and coastal environments pose challenges for energy costs and grid resilience, but the ocean can be a key solution. Marine energy could provide these communities with clean, affordable, and reliable power. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are developing the Deployment Readiness Framework (DRF) to support remote, coastal, and island community-driven energy transitions. This framework can be used to better understand the readiness of communities for marine energy technology demonstration projects and their operation. The DRF builds on the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) supported in part by DOE's Water Power Technologies Office.

community readiness↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating Marine Environmental Degradation of Additive Manufacturing Materials for Renewable Energy Applications

Marine renewable energy is a relatively young industry where there is a great need for rapid prototyping in design-build-test campaigns to quickly mature groundbreaking technologies. Additive manufacturing has an important role to play in the industry; however, little information is available to marine energy developers to help inform them on which additive manufacturing materials are appropriate for highly loaded structures in harsh marine environments. This paper presents an initial study on the mechanical characterization of polymeric additive manufacturing materials and the degradation effects due to the marine environment. Ultem 9085, acrylonitrile styrene acrylate, and chopped carbon-filled nylon, as well as continuous carbon and glass fiber-reinforced nylon were chosen for this study. Samples were manufactured to perform a variety of tension, shear, and compression mechanical characterization tests on the materials. Half of the samples were conditioned in Pacific Ocean water for approximately 6 months at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Marine and Coastal Research Laboratory before being returned for mechanical characterization. The mechanical testing results showed that the Ultem 9085 and acrylonitrile styrene acrylate materials experienced little to no degradation in stiffness or strength after exposure to the marine environment. On the other hand, the nylon-based materials suffered significant stiffness and strength degradation (over 50% in some cases) after environmental conditioning. Ultimately, these data sets should serve as starting points to allow marine renewable energy developers to make informed additive manufacturing material choices for their prototype deployments.

additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing Spatial and Temporal Variability of California’s Coastal Upwelling Using a Satellite-Derived CUTI Index

Ocean upwelling off California is a wind-driven coastal process with complex interactions between spatial wind patterns and sea surface temperatures. Large-scale spatial and temporal upwelling characterizations are traditionally based on numerical models, while quantifying upwelling with direct observations is not straightforward. To complement model-based upwelling characterizations, here we use satellite estimates of winds, sea surface temperatures, and ocean currents along the California coast to calculate the coastal upwelling transport index (CUTI), originally calculated from a numerical ocean model. The CUTI framework accounts for both Ekman and geostrophic offshore-directed ocean transport, the latter of which is often neglected in satellite-based upwelling assessments. The approach yields the CUTI over a 30-yr period at a daily temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution to analyze upwelling patterns, with focus on potential Morro Bay and Humboldt wind energy areas. Morro Bay (CUTI median of 0.63 m 2 s −1 ) exhibits stronger, more consistent upwelling throughout the year, whereas Humboldt (CUTI median of 0.45 m 2 s −1 ) exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle with strongest upwelling in the summer and occasional downwelling in winter. The cluster analysis of 1993–2022 satellite maps of CUTI identifies four characteristic spatial upwelling patterns along the coast, corresponding to distinct spatial distributions of sea surface temperature anomalies, Ekman transport, and geostrophic ocean water transport. This dataset provides an observation-based foundation for characterizing natural coastal upwelling off the California coast, showing good agreement with the original model CUTI while being based on satellite data and offering increased spatial resolution.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computational Fluid Dynamics Study of a Cross-Flow Marine Hydrokinetic Turbine and the Combined Influence of Struts and Helical Blades

A computational fluid dynamics study was performed for a cross-flow marine hydrokinetic turbine. The analysis was done in three dimensions and used the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solver in the commercial code STAR-CCM+. The base turbine configuration is the RivGen(R) Turbine, designed by the Ocean Renewable Power Company. A convergence and uncertainty analysis was performed for both the spatial and temporal discretization; this was done using the base configuration, which features support struts and helical foils. Both struts and helical blades introduce three-dimensional flow effects, influencing the complex flow phenomenon of dynamic stall. The study compares the relative impact of struts on power performance and blade loading for both helical and straight blades, and found that for this turbine the relative loss in power from struts was lower with helical blades.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring Multiscale Earth System and Human-Earth System Dynamics in the Puget Sound Region

With its mountain-to-coast hydroclimate, strong influence of Pacific Ocean weather systems and climate patterns, and unique land use history with strong rural-to-urban gradients, the Puget Sound region is a natural laboratory for studying a number of complex processes in, and interactions among, different Earth and human systems. A 1-year scoping study was initiated by the Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling program of the Department of Energy’s Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research. It was intended to elucidate and highlight the rich opportunities Puget Sound offers to advance our understanding of and ability to simulate Earth system changes and human-Earth system interactions. A literature review, multi-day community workshop, and external input were used to develop this scoping study report. The report first summarizes scientific understanding and knowledge gaps associated with major regional systems, including atmosphere and climate, the land surface, coastal and marine processes, and human systems, as well as how these systems are changing over time. It then highlights some of the most notable extreme events in the region, including heat waves, atmospheric rivers, droughts, and wildfires. Finally, key research opportunities for Earth and environmental systems modeling in, above, and around Puget Sound are highlighted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

OC7 phase I: Toward practical sea-state-dependent modeling of hydrodynamic viscous drag and damping

Here, this article presents a collaborative research campaign under the OC7 project on refining the engineering modeling approach for hydrodynamic viscous drag and damping on floating wind platforms, focusing on the adjustment of hydrodynamic drag and damping coefficients for different sea states. The participant simulation results show significant improvements over the previous OC6 project in predicting the low-frequency resonance motion under nonoperational conditions. The improvements are mainly due to enhanced modeling, including the adoption of wave stretching, and directly tuning the coefficients to measured platform motion in waves instead of free decay. For accurate predictions of mean- and slow-drift motion, the better performing models use a decreasing column splash zone drag coefficient and increasing surge damping/drag with increasing wave height. The model tuning for heave and pitch resonance shows less consistency. Generally, both quadratic drag and additional heave or pitch damping are needed for accurate predictions. Alternatively, a quadratic drag formulation with velocity filtering for the rectangular pontoons leads to improved predictions without additional damping. This model is also potentially more predictive, requiring minimal adjustment to its parameters for different conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1988

Iridium, shocked minerals, and trace elements across the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary at Maud Rise, Wedell Sea, and Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic Ocean

Sediments spanning a 5 meter section across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary at ODP holes 689B and 690D, Maud Rise, Wedell Sea and hole 527, Walvis Ridge, are being analyzed for shock deformation, PGE's and other trace elements (including REE's). Mineral separates from each sample were studied with optical microscopy to determine the distribution and microstructural state of quartz and feldspar present in the sediments. Samples from Maud Rise were taken of the K/T transition and at about 50 cm intervals above and below it. These samples consist of carbonate-rich sediments, with the K/T transition marked by a change from white Maastrichtian oozes to a greenish ooze with higher concentrations of altered volcanic clay and vitric ash. The Walvis Ridge site is characterized by more clay-rich sediments with average carbonate content about 60 to 70 percent. Initial results from RNAA studies indicate that iridium is present in all the Maud Rise samples in concentrations equal to or greater than 0.01 ppb (whole-rock basis). Preliminary results from optical microscopy indicate the occurrence of shock mosaicism in quartz and feldspar in all of the samples studied. The pervasiveness of shock mosaicism and presence of planar features to 2 meters from the K/T boundary indicates that a single impact or volcanic explosion 66 ma may be ruled out as responsible for the K/T event. A similar conclusion may be drawn independently from the distribution of iridium and other trace elements. Regardless of the source of the shock waves and sediment contamination, multiple events are required over a ca.0.5 my timespan; currently we favor endogenous sources.

Huffman, Alan R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Shallow-to-Deep Convective Transition in the Amazon (Final Report)

The frequent and extensive deep cloud formations over the Amazon Basin provide a vast area of atmospheric heating in the Tropics, forcing large-scale global circulations on daily to secular time scales. Motivated by the importance of these systems to the global climate system and the well-documented seasonal cycle in rainfall over the Amazon Basin, this study focused on improving understanding of the processes governing these systems on seasonal time scales and their impact on the typical growth of convection from early afternoon through evening, termed the shallow-to-deep transition. This study is based on observations from the Department of Energy (DOE) ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) near Manacapuru, Brazil collected during the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign from 1 January 2014 to 30 November 2015, together with total column water vapor (CWV) and surface meteorological observations from a dense Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network within 50 km of the AMF site provided by the CHUVA Program collected in coordination with the GOAmazon campaign. The specific objectives of this study were to address the following questions: 1) What environmental conditions support the shallow-to-deep convective transition over the Central Amazon? 2) How does the relative importance of these conditions compare during the wet and dry seasons? 3) How are these conditions modulated by basin-scale transient forcing? 4) How well are these processes captured by regional model simulations convective resolving scale? Our main hypothesis was that intra-seasonal atmospheric disturbances were a primary driver of rainfall during the wet season in the Central Amazon, while localized surface heating of the land was the primary driver of enhanced rainfall during the dry season. Overall, our findings supported our hypothesis, with the convectively active phase of atmospheric Kelvin waves strongly favoring the development of larger, more organized rain systems during the wet season, while localized isolated deep convection dominated the types of rain events seen during the dry season. These results have implications for the predictability of rainfall over the Central Amazon and for its representation in climate and weather models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Life Cycle Emissions Factors for Electricity Generation Technologies

This dataset consists of a table containing the distribution of literature estimates of greenhouse gas emissions for the following electricity generation and storage technologies: biopower, coal, concentrating solar power, geothermal, hydrogen storage, hydropower, lithium-ion battery storage, natural gas, nuclear, ocean, oil, photovoltaic, pumped-storage hydropower, and wind. Quartile estimates of life cycle emissions factors in units of grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt hour of generation (g CO2e/kWh) are provided for the following life cycle stages: one-time upstream, ongoing combustion, ongoing non-combustion, one-time downstream, and total. Literature estimates were compiled by the LCA Harmonization study and subsequent updates, as detailed in the factsheet which accompanies this dataset, https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy21osti/80580.pdf .

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Climate of Early Mars

The nature of the early Martian climate is one of the major unanswered questions of planetary science. Key challenges remain, but a new wave of orbital and in situ observations and improvements in climate modeling have led to significant advances over the past decade. Multiple lines of geologic evidence now point to an episodically warm surface during the late Noachian and early Hesperian periods 3–4 Ga. The low solar flux received by Mars in its first billion years and inefficiency of plausible greenhouse gases such as CO2 mean that the steady-state early Martian climate was likely cold. A denser CO2 atmosphere would have caused adiabatic cooling of the surface and hence migration of water ice to the higher-altitude equatorial and southern regions of the planet. Transient warming caused melting of snow and ice deposits and a temporarily active hydrological cycle, leading to erosion of the valley networks and other fluvial features. Precise details of the warming mechanisms remain unclear, but impacts, volcanism, and orbital forcing all likely played an important role. The lack of evidence for glaciation across much of Mars’s ancient terrain suggests the late Noachian surface water inventory was not sufficient to sustain a northern ocean. Though mainly inhospitable on the surface, early Mars may nonetheless have presented significant opportunities for the development of microbial life.

Mars↗

DOE OSTI2023

Year-long buoy-based observations of the air–sea transition zone off the US west coast

Abstract. Two buoys equipped with Doppler lidars owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE) were deployed off the coast of California in autumn of 2020 by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The buoys collected data for an entire annual cycle at two offshore locations proposed for offshore wind development by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. One of the buoys was deployed approximately 50 km off the coast near Morro Bay in central California in 1100 m of water. The second buoy was deployed approximately 40 km off Humboldt County in northern California in 625 m of water. The buoys provided the first-ever continuous measurements of the air–sea transition zone off the coast of California. The atmospheric and oceanographic characteristics of the area and estimates of annual energy production at both the Morro Bay and Humboldt wind energy areas show that both locations have a high wind energy yield and are prime locations for future floating offshore wind turbines. This article provides a description and comprehensive analysis of the data collected by the buoys, and a final post-processed dataset is uploaded to a data archive maintained by the DOE. Additional analysis was conducted to show the value of the data collected by the DOE buoys. All post-processed data from this study are available on the Wind Data Hub website: https://a2e.energy.gov/data# (last access: 14 September 2023). Near-surface, wave, current, and cloud datasets for Humboldt and Morro Bay are provided at https://doi.org/10.21947/1783807 (Krishnamurthy and Sheridan, 2023b) and https://doi.org/10.21947/1959715 (Krishnamurthy and Sheridan, 2023a), respectively. Lidar datasets for Humboldt and Morro Bay are provided at https://doi.org/10.21947/1783809 (Krishnamurthy and Sheridan, 2023d) and https://doi.org/10.21947/1959721 (Krishnamurthy and Sheridan, 2023c), respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Introduction to: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)

A striking conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report is the crucial role that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play in anthropogenic climate change. However, these IPCC coupled climate simulations show a broad range of uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of AMOC transport change ranging from none to nearly complete collapse within the 21st century. The potential consequences of large changes in the characteristics of AMOC have motivated the creation in the United States of an interagency program and implementation plan to develop monitoring and prediction capabilities for the AMOC This program parallels the development of substantial monitoring efforts by European, South American and African countries -- notably the UK Rapid and Rapid-Watch programs. The papers contained in this volume are derived from presentations at the First U.S. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Meeting held 4 - 6 May, 2009 to review the US implementation plan and its coordination with other monitoring activities. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation consists of multiple components illustrated in an attached figure. Water enters the South Atlantic at upper and intermediate depths through both western and eastern routes (where eddy transport is especially important) and is transported northward across the equator, where it recirculates within the northern subtropical and subpolar gyres. The northern end is defined by the sinking regions of the Nordic Seas and the Labrador Sea where the waters that eventually form the upper and lower branches of North Atlantic Deep Water are conditioned. High surface salinities, the result of high net evaporation in the tropics and subtropics (including the Mediterranean Sea), and presence of regions of the Arctic Ocean that remain ice-free even in winter allow for the rapid cooling and thus densification of surface water. This dense surface water becomes the source of deep water formation in the sinking regions. In addition to transporting mass, the AMOC transports roughly half of the total amount of heat carried northward through the northern subtropics (down the temperature-gradient) by the ocean. In contrast in the Southern Hemisphere AMOC transports heat up-gradient from the cool Circumpolar Current to the warm tropics. Paleoevidence suggests that AMOC heat transport in the two hemispheres has varied over time in ways intimately tied to millennial changes in the Earth's climate. In one example, the abrupt Younger Dryas spell of cold weather over the North Atlantic, which began 13,000 years ago, has generally been linked to a millennial shutdown of the AMOC as a result of massive freshwater discharge from the North American continent. The current AMOC monitoring array consists of a series of instrumented transects located across key passages (see Cunningham et al., 2010 for a recent review). In the Arctic and sub-Arctic, transects cross Fram Strait, Denmark Strait and the Faroe Channel (connecting Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom), as well as the entrance to the Labrador Sea. Further south and extending outwards from the east coast of North America there are a series of monitoring arrays including arrays of the Canadian Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program, deployments of the Rapid Western Atlantic Variability Experiment (WAVE), Line W at 39 N, as well as the Rapid-MOC moored array. The latter spans the entire Atlantic basin along 26.5 N. At tropical latitudes we have the Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE) array at 16 N, while in the Southern Hemisphere a corresponding basin-spanning transect is being established at the latitude of Cape of Good Hope, complemented by arrays at Drake Passage.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

NASA NTRS2018

Prediction Skill of the MJO Teleconnection Signals in the NASA GEOS Subseasonal Reforecasts

Tropical-extratropical teleconnections are considered key to advancing subseasonal prediction. The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), characterized by large scale convective envelopes propagating along the tropical Indo-Pacific sector, is known to modulate midlatitude circulation and associated weather patterns. Although there is a general consensus on the MJO's influence on the midlatitude circulation, which is thought to be due to modulations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific North America (PNA) pattern, relatively less is known about the predictability of these teleconnection signals in dynamical forecast models. The composite evolution of the midlatitude circulation anomalies and associated wave train structure as the delayed response to tropical heating are reported in many studies that have examined reanalyses and long model simulations. However, it is yet to be determined whether they lend any beneficial subseasonal forecast skill, especially to weekly mean surface temperature and precipitation over North America. Investigating useful predictable signals from the MJO teleconnections is also complicated by the fact that the MJO is a moving heat source with an approximate periodicity of 30-60 days, and that the structure and amplitude of the midlatitude response can be sensitive to the longitudinal positioning of the heating anomaly as well as the propagation speed of the MJO. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of MJO teleconnections on forecast accuracy at 2-3 week lead over North America, with an emphasis on the above-mentioned lesser known aspects of these teleconnections. To this end, we utilize a suite of subseasonal reforecasts performed with the latest NASA GEOS-5 seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) system. These reforecasts were performed as part of the NOAA SubX project, wherein the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model was run at degree horizontal resolution, initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2016. The GEOS-5 model shows skillful predictions of the MJO, with the correlation coefficient based on the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index staying at or above 0.5 up to forecast lead 26-36 days. The system is thus a useful tool for investigating MJO teleconnection processes.

Achuthavarier, Deepthi↗