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Present state of knowledge of the upper atmosphere1993: An assessment report, part 2

This document is issued in response to the Clean Air Act Amendment of 1990, Public Law 101-549, which mandates that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and other key agencies submit triennial reports to Congress and the Environmental Protection Agency. NASA is charged with the responsibility to report on the state of our knowledge of the earth's upper atmosphere, particularly the stratosphere. Part 2 (this document) presents summaries of several scientific assessments of our current understanding of the chemical composition and physical structure of the stratosphere, in particular how the abundance and distribution of ozone is predicted to change in the future. These reviews include: (Section B) 'Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1991'; (Section C) 'Methyl bromide and the Ozone Layer: A Summary of Current Understanding', published in 1992; (Section D) 'Concentrations, Lifetimes, and Trends of Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's), Halons, and Related Molecules in the Atmosphere'; (Section E) 'The Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft: Interim Assessment Report of the NASA High-Speed Research Program'; (Section F) 'Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modeling'; and (Section G) a list of the contributors to this report.

Kurylo, Michael J.↗

Meteoroid-Induced Anomalies on Spacecraft

Many programs/projects use a simple meteoroid environment based on Grun's 1985 paper or the old NASA space station spec in their design and risk assessments. These models, which are omni directional and mono-­velocity, bear little resemblance to the actual meteoroid environment, which is sun-fixed, very directional, and which has a complex speed distribution varying by source and particle size. As a result, the simple meteoroid models lead to estimates that underestimate the spacecraft/vehicle risk by a factor of 2 or more. In addition, programs often over-emphasize the risk posed by meteor showers, which typically account for less than ten percent of the meteoroid risk over the vehicle lifetime. Fueled by popular media, the emphasis on meteor showers (the risks from which can usually be mitigated operationally) can lead to ambivalence to the real risk driver, which is the sporadic background.

Cooke, William J.↗

Advanced Silicon Avalanche Photodiodes on NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Mission

Silicon Avalanche Photodiodes (APDs) are used in NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) which was launched in December 2018 and is currently measuring the Earth’s vegetation vertical structure from the International Space Station. The APDs were specially made for space lidar with a much lower hole-to-electron ionization coefficient ratio (k-factor ~0.008) than that of commercially available silicon APDs in order to reduce the APD excess noise from the randomness of the avalanche gain. A silicon heater resistor was used under the APD chip to heat the device up to 70°C and improve its quantum efficiency at 1064 nm laser wavelength while maintaining a low dark current such that the overall signal to noise ratio is improved. Special APD protection circuits were used to raise the overload damage threshold to prevent device damage from strong laser return by specular surfaces, such as still water bodies, and space radiation events. The APD and a hybrid transimpedance amplifier circuit were hermetically sealed in a package with a sufficiently low leak rate to ensure multi-year operation lifetime in space. The detector assemblies underwent a series of pre-launch tests per NASA Goddard Environmental Verification Standard for space qualification. They have performed exactly as expected with GEDI in orbit. A detailed description of the GEDI detector design, signal and noise model, and test results are presented in this paper.

Sun, Xiaoli↗

Perturbations in Stratospheric Aerosol Evolution Due to the Water-Rich Plume of the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Eruption

The January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption injected a relatively small amount of SO2, but significantly more water into the stratosphere than previously seen in the modern satellite record. Here we show that the large amount of water resulted in large perturbations to stratospheric aerosol evolution. Our Community Earth System Model simulation reproduces the enhanced water vapor observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder at pressure levels between 10 and 50 hPa for three months. Compared with a simulation without a water injection, this additional source of water vapor increases OH, which halves the SO2 lifetime. Subsequent coagulation creates larger sulfate particles that double the stratospheric aerosol optical depth. A seasonal forecast of volcanic plume transport in the southern hemisphere indicates this eruption will greatly enhance the aerosol surface area and water vapor near the polar vortex until at least October 2022, suggesting that there will continue to be an impact of the HTHH eruption on the climate system.

Atmospheric science↗

GRACE Mission Design: Impact of Uncertainties in Disturbance Environment and Satellite Force Models

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) primary mission will be performed by making measurements of the inter-satellite range change between two co-planar, low altitude, near-polar orbiting satellites. Understanding the uncertainties in the disturbance environment, particularly the aerodynamic drag and torques, is critical in several mission areas. These include an accurate estimate of the spacecraft orbital lifetime, evaluation of spacecraft attitude control requirements, and estimation of the orbital maintenance maneuver frequency necessitated by differences in the drag forces acting on both satellites. The FREEMOL simulation software has been developed and utilized to analyze and suggest design modifications to the GRACE spacecraft. Aerodynamic accommodation bounding analyses were performed and worst-case envelopes were obtained for the aerodynamic torques and the differential ballistic coefficients between the leading and trailing GRACE spacecraft. These analyses demonstrate how spacecraft aerodynamic design and analysis can benefit from a better understanding of spacecraft surface accommodation properties, and the implications for mission design constraints such as formation spacing control.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗

Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets

This repository contains simulated outputs from superwell – a hydro-economic tool for long-term assessment of groundwater cost and supply – providing globally gridded groundwater extractable volumes and associated unit costs ($/km³) for accessible groundwater production, based on a variety of user-defined depletion and ponded depth scenarios. Key model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S. B., Graham, N. T., Yoon, J., Wild, T. B., Hejazi, M., Watson, D. J., & Vernon, C. R. (2025). Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(5), 1737-1767. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1737-2025 Find the source code of the superwell model on GitHub: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Repository Overview Main output: superwell_outputs.7z contains 6 files (4.5 GB) named as superwell_py_deep_all_0.*PD_0.*DL.csv. These files present superwell outputs of global groundwater extraction volumes and cost estimates on a 0.5° scale for six scenarios with different Ponded Depth (PD; 0.3 and 0.6 m) and Depletion Limit (DL; 5%, 25%, and 40% of available volume) targets over the entire pumping lifetime of a grid cell superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_sample_100.csv contains superwell outputs for 100 data points sampled to match the global inputs' distribution superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_Grid_72548.csv contains superwell output for a single grid cell concept_v5.png provides an overview of the superwell workflow Outputs Description year_number: year of pumping depletion_limit: set depletion limit (DL) as a volume fraction of total available groundwater Mappings: continent, country, gcam_basin_id, Basin_long_name, grid_id: geographic identifiers and basin information Inputs: grid_area (km²): area of the grid cell whyclass: hydrogeological classification of the aquifer permeability (m/day), porosity (%), total_thickness (m), depth_to_water (m): aquifer properties. The geo-processed input data has been published separately: https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 Model outputs: orig_aqfr_sat_thickness (m), aqfr_sat_thickness (m): original and remaining/instantaneous saturated thickness of the aquifer hydraulic_conductivity (m/day), transmissivity (m²/day): hydraulic properties of the aquifer radius_of_influence (m), areal_extent (km²): well radius and area of influence from the center of the well number_of_wells (-): number of wells in a grid cell determined by a ratio of well area and grid area max_drawdown (m), drawdown (m), drawdown_interference (m): well and aquifer drawdown during extraction total_head (m): total lift for the groundwater (depth to water plus drawdown) total_well_length (m): total depth of wells drilled well_yield (m³/day): pumping rate or well yield power (kW), energy (kWh): power and energy required for pumping groundwater Volume Outputs: volume_produced_perwell (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_perwell (m³): production volume metrics per well volume_produced_allwells (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_allwells (m³): aggregate extraction volumes for all wells in a grid cell available_volume (m³): available groundwater in storage for the grid cell as determined by aquifer properties depleted_vol_fraction: fraction of total volume pumped over available volumes in a grid cell (same as depletion limit) Cost Outputs: well_installation_cost ($): well installation cost based on the hydrogeological complexity of the aquifer annual_capital_cost, maintenance_cost, nonenergy_cost ($): nonenergy costs energy_cost_rate ($/kWh): electricity rate energy_cost ($): energy cost of pumping groundwater total_cost_perwell ($), total_cost_allwells ($): total annual energy and non-energy cost for each and all wells in a grid cell a unit_cost ($/m³), unit_cost_per_km3 ($/km³), unit_cost_per_acreft ($/acre-ft): total cost of pumping a unit of groundwater, indicated for different spatial units Key Resources Model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Graham, N., Yoon, J., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024; In-prep). Long-term Hydro-economic Assessment Tool for Evaluating Global Groundwater Cost and Supply: Superwell v1. Geoscientific Model Development. Input data: Niazi, H., Watson, D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Ferencz, S., Vernon, C., Graham, N., Wild, T., & Yoon, J. (2024). Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 superwell source code: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Cite as Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Yoon, J., Graham, N., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024). Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307832 Contact Reach out to Hassan Niazi or Stephen Ferencz or open an issue in the superwell repository for questions or suggestions.

Earth Systems↗

Flow and thermal modelling of the argon volume in the DarkSide-20k TPC

The DarkSide-20k dark matter experiment, currently under construction at LNGS, features a dual-phase time projection chamber (TPC) with a ∼ 50 t argon target from an underground well. At this scale, it is crucial to optimise the argon flow pattern for efficient target purification and for fast distribution of internal gaseous calibration sources with lifetimes of the order of hours. To this end, we have performed computational fluid dynamics simulations and heat transfer calculations. The residence time distribution shows that the detector is well-mixed on time-scales of the turnover time (∼ 40 d). Notably, simulations show that despite a two-order-of-magnitude difference between the turnover time and the half-life of 83m Kr of 1.83 h, source atoms have the highest probability to reach the centre of the TPC 13 min after their injection, allowing for a homogeneous distribution before undergoing radioactive decay. We further analyse the thermal aspects of dual-phase operation and define the requirements for the formation of a stable gas pocket on top of the liquid. We find a best-estimate value for the heat transfer rate at the liquid-gas interface of 62 W with an upper limit of 144 W and a minimum gas pocket inlet temperature of 89 K to avoid condensation on the acrylic anode. This study also informs the placement of liquid inlets and outlets in the TPC. The presented techniques are widely applicable to other large-scale, noble-liquid detectors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Modeling the Conformer-Dependent Electronic Absorption Spectra and Photolysis Rates of Methyl Vinyl Ketone Oxide and Methacrolein Oxide

Criegee intermediates are important atmospheric oxidants, formed via the reaction of ozone with volatile alkenes emitted into the troposphere. Small Criegee intermediates (e.g., CH 2 OO and CH 3 CHOO) are highly reactive, and their removal via unimolecular decay or bimolecular chemistry dominates their atmospheric lifetimes. As the molecular complexity of Criegee intermediates increases, their electronic absorption spectra show a bathochromic shift within the solar spectrum relevant to the troposphere. In such cases, solar photolysis may become a competitive contributor to their atmospheric removal. In this article, we report the conformer-dependent simulated electronic absorption spectra of two four-carbon-centered Criegee intermediates, methyl vinyl ketone oxide (MVK-oxide) and methacrolein oxide (MACR-oxide). Both MVK-oxide and MACR-oxide contain four low-energy conformers, which are convoluted in the experimentally measured spectra. Here, we deconvolute each conformer and estimate contributions from each of the four conformers to the experimentally measured spectra. We also estimate the photolysis rates and predict that solar photolysis should be a more competitive removal process for MVK-oxide and MACR-oxide (cf. CH 2 OO and CH 3 CHOO).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Optimal Sizing and Dispatch of Solar Power with Storage

Designers of utility-scale solar plants with storage, seeking to maximize some aspect of plant performance, face multiple challenges. In many geographic locations, there is significant penetration of photovoltaic generation, which depresses energy prices during the hours of solar availability. An energy storage system affords the opportunity to dispatch during higher-priced time periods, but complicates plant design and dispatch decisions. Solar resource variability compounds these challenges, because determining optimal system sizes requires simultaneously considering how the plant will be operated under the imposed market and weather conditions. We develop an approach to analyze the economic performance of hybrid and single-technology solar power plants, which incorporates optimal dispatch, and considers the expected electricity market and weather conditions. We utilize the System Advisor Model software package to simulate the operation of multiple renewable generation and energy storage technologies, in conjunction with hourly-fidelity generation decisions determined by a revenue-maximizing, mixed-integer linear program. We show that, under our assumed market and weather conditions, the lifetime benefit-to-cost ratio can be improved by 6 to 19 percent, relative to a baseline design without optimizing, and that a concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage design produces significantly more energy per year, but is less profitable under our cost assumptions.

black-box optimization↗

A novel method for quantifying irradiation damage in nuclear graphite using Raman spectroscopy

Raman spectroscopy has long been used in studying irradiation damage in carbon/graphite materials. It is however unclear if the measurements from different types of materials are directly comparable. Further, decoupling the contribution from irradiation temperature and fluence to the total damage in nuclear graphite possessing irradiation damage gradient is currently not readily feasible as it requires a complete set of test reactor irradiation experiments over the relevant temperature and fluence range. A novel methodology has therefore been proposed and developed to quantify total irradiation damage evolution at crystal level based on graphite Raman G-band position shift. Specifically, G-band positions derived from a large number of spectra collected from the fractured surface of microfine-grained POCO ZXF-5Q graphite possessing proton irradiation damage gradient were plotted with open literature Raman data on HOPG, BEPO (AXGP graphite), PCEA and IG-110 graphite as a function of dpa. The total damage level within 2σ beam radius in this POCO graphite was estimated to be equivalent to ~2–5 dpa at ~350–370 °C. Derived G-band positions were then mapped to the three-stage amorphization trajectory model indicating beam centre area has entered the second stage, i.e., transitioning from nanocrystalline graphite into amorphous carbon. G-band position relative shift (ΔG) curve with a ‘turn-around’ peak as a function of total damage can be used for in-service lifetime prediction. Importantly, the developed methodology has the potential to ‘unify’ total damage levels across different grades of nuclear graphite caused by ion, neutron and proton irradiation at different temperatures.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Design principles for lifelong learning AI accelerators

Lifelong learning-an agent's ability to learn throughout its lifetime-is a hallmark of biological learning systems and a central challenge for artificial intelligence (AI). The development of lifelong learning algorithms could lead to a range of novel AI applications, but this will also require the development of appropriate hardware accelerators, particularly if the models are to be deployed on edge platforms, which have strict size, weight and power constraints. Here we explore the design of lifelong learning AI accelerators that are intended for deployment in untethered environments. We identify key desirable capabilities for lifelong learning accelerators and highlight metrics to evaluate such accelerators. We then discuss current edge AI accelerators and explore the future design of lifelong learning accelerators, considering the role that different emerging technologies could play. The Perspective explores the future design of lifelong learning artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators that are intended for deployment in untethered environments, identifying key desirable capabilities for such edge AI accelerators and guidance on metrics to evaluate them.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Representing Complex Systems as Graphs for Debugging and Predictive Maintenance-Preliminary Thoughts

Representing complex systems as graphs enables use of mathematical tools to identify faults or predict failures. Graph nodes correspond to individual modules or subsystems, and edges link coupled system parts. ‘Probes’ measure the node outputs, monitoring the system health for unexpected behavior. Assuming one cannot probe every point, within a system, the fault correlates to a region—not necessarily the specific location. Bayesian networks trained to understand fault patterns can accurately identify the source. The diagnostic tool described aides debugging by pinpointing system failure causes. For predictive maintenance, probe data develop probability distribution functions describing subsystem mean time to failure. Unit lifetime can be estimated through these probability distributions. Two approaches include using Bayesian classifiers to infer the system failure source and developing maintenance schedules by treating systems as collections of random variables. When failure behavior does not follow a closed form function, use of similarity models is proposed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The acidity of atmospheric particles and clouds

Acidity, defined as pH, is a central component of aqueous chemistry. In the atmosphere, the acidity of condensed phases (aerosol particles, cloud water, and fog droplets) governs the phase partitioning of semivolatile gases such as HNO 3 , NH 3 , HCl, and organic acids and bases as well as chemical reaction rates. It has implications for the atmospheric lifetime of pollutants, deposition, and human health. Despite its fundamental role in atmospheric processes, only recently has this field seen a growth in the number of studies on particle acidity. Even with this growth, many fine-particle pH estimates must be based on thermodynamic model calculations since no operational techniques exist for direct measurements. Current information indicates acidic fine particles are ubiquitous, but observationally constrained pH estimates are limited in spatial and temporal coverage. Clouds and fogs are also generally acidic, but to a lesser degree than particles, and have a range of pH that is quite sensitive to anthropogenic emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides, as well as ambient ammonia. Historical measurements indicate that cloud and fog droplet pH has changed in recent decades in response to controls on anthropogenic emissions, while the limited trend data for aerosol particles indicate acidity may be relatively constant due to the semivolatile nature of the key acids and bases and buffering in particles. This paper reviews and synthesizes the current state of knowledge on the acidity of atmospheric condensed phases, specifically particles and cloud droplets. It includes recommendations for estimating acidity and pH, standard nomenclature, a synthesis of current pH estimates based on observations, and new model calculations on the local and global scale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Numerical Study of the Transient Vaporization of an Oxygen Droplet at Sub- and Super-Critical Conditions

Unsteady vaporization of a droplet in a high-pressure quiescent environment has been studied. With spherical symmetry and constant pressure, the process is diffusion controlled. At low pressures droplet heating is significant for most of the droplet lifetime, and an unsteady analysis of the gas phase is required. Then, the vaporization of a liquid oxygen droplet in gaseous hydrogen at moderate and high pressures is considered. At super-critical pressures, the surface temperature reaches the computed critical mixture value where a model for super-critical combustion is needed. The details of the diffusion layer of dissolved hydrogen do not significantly affect the results. Various methods are explored to compute the gas-phase density. Under the model's assumptions, homogeneous nucleation is not likely to occur.

Delplanque, J.-P.↗

Sensor Based Engine Life Calculation: A Probabilistic Perspective

It is generally known that an engine component will accumulate damage (life usage) during its lifetime of use in a harsh operating environment. The commonly used cycle count for engine component usage monitoring has an inherent range of uncertainty which can be overly costly or potentially less safe from an operational standpoint. With the advance of computer technology, engine operation modeling, and the understanding of damage accumulation physics, it is possible (and desirable) to use the available sensor information to make a more accurate assessment of engine component usage. This paper describes a probabilistic approach to quantify the effects of engine operating parameter uncertainties on the thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) life of a selected engine part. A closed-loop engine simulation with a TMF life model is used to calculate the life consumption of different mission cycles. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is used to generate the statistical life usage profile for different operating assumptions. The probabilities of failure of different operating conditions are compared to illustrate the importance of the engine component life calculation using sensor information. The results of this study clearly show that a sensor-based life cycle calculation can greatly reduce the risk of component failure as well as extend on-wing component life by avoiding unnecessary maintenance actions.

Guo, Ten-Huei↗

NASA Astronaut Occupational Surveillance Program and Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health, LSAH, Astronaut Exposures and Risk in the Terrestrial and Spaceflight Environment

United States Astronauts have a very unique occupational exposure profile. In order to understand these risks and properly address them, the National Aeronautics and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, originally created the Longitudinal Study of Astronaut Health, LSAH. The first LSAH was designed to address a variety of needs regarding astronaut health and included a 3 to 1 terrestrial control population in order to compare United States "earth normal" disease and aging to that of a microgravity exposed astronaut. Over the years that program has been modified, now termed Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health, still LSAH. Astronaut spaceflight exposures have also changed, with the move from short duration shuttle flights to long duration stays on international space station and considerable terrestrial training activities. This new LSAH incorporates more of an occupational health and medicine model to the study of occupationally exposed astronauts. The presentation outlines the baseline exposures and monitoring of the astronaut population to exposures, both terrestrial, and in space.

Keprta, Sean R.↗

Consensus International Solar Resource Standards and Best Practices Development: Preprint

Standardization and best practices of data sets and models enable the industry to develop widely accepted protocols for various stages of solar project development and operations. In collaboration with the International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme Task 16, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed and regularly updates the Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications. In collaboration with ASTM members on the radiometry subcommittee, NREL assists in and leads the development of radiometric standards that contribute to increased accuracy in the measurement of solar resources available to conversion systems and to the development and improvement of models. These models can then provide long-term geographic distribution of solar resources for areas where measured solar data are not available. Further, these standards play a preeminent role in all aspects of solar energy projects, including standard conditions, methods and instrumentation, accelerated testing, and service lifetime of materials.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗