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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Time-Extended Payoffs for Collectives of Autonomous Agents

A collective is a set of self-interested agents which try to maximize their own utilities, along with a a well-defined, time-extended world utility function which rates the performance of the entire system. In this paper, we use theory of collectives to design time-extended payoff utilities for agents that are both aligned with the world utility, and are "learnable", i.e., the agents can readily see how their behavior affects their utility. We show that in systems where each agent aims to optimize such payoff functions, coordination arises as a byproduct of the agents selfishly pursuing their own goals. A game theoretic analysis shows that such payoff functions have the net effect of aligning the Nash equilibrium, Pareto optimal solution and world utility optimum, thus eliminating undesirable behavior such as agents working at cross-purposes. We then apply collective-based payoff functions to the token collection in a gridworld problem where agents need to optimize the aggregate value of tokens collected across an episode of finite duration (i.e., an abstracted version of rovers on Mars collecting scientifically interesting rock samples, subject to power limitations). We show that, regardless of the initial token distribution, reinforcement learning agents using collective-based payoff functions significantly outperform both natural extensions of single agent algorithms and global reinforcement learning solutions based on "team games".

Tumer, Kagan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Distributed Approach to High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking Within a Virtualized Environment

The High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking (HDTN) project has taken a distributed service-based approach to the development of a highly efficient delay tolerant networking (DTN) implementation. Through the analysis of many DTN implementations, system and mission requirements as well as the DTN protocol specifications, HDTN has worked to infuse modern computing technologies into the NASA approach to interplanetary networking. The initial use case of the HDTN software runs on a hypervisor representative of the International Space Station (ISS) DTN Gateway. In this scenario, multiple emulated payloads will send science data through HDTN to a mission operations center. HDTN will provide store and forward capability as well as network flow management. This paper discusses the infusion path of cognitive networking technologies in the NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) networks using the DTN architecture and protocols as the basis for cognitive routing and network management capabilities. HDTN has been developing the Bundle Protocol encoding and decoding mechanisms and messaging framework that can be used as the basis for integrating DTN with various learning and decision-making processes. The concepts of distributed computing, network virtualization, software defined networking and delay tolerant networking are basic building blocks which will further the development of cognitive networking. In addition to discussion of the HDTN software development and testing, this paper examines the role that each of these technologies play in the evolution of the current state of space networking into an intelligent network of networks.

Rachel Mary Dudukovich↗
DOE OSTI2026

From bulk to surface: Structure and dynamics of amorphous alumina from deep potential molecular dynamics

Understanding the atomic-scale structure and dynamics of amorphous oxide surfaces is essential for interpreting their chemical reactivity, mechanical stability, and interfacial behavior, yet direct experimental characterization remains challenging. We employ Deep Potential (DP) molecular dynamics to generate large-scale, ab initio -quality models of amorphous Al 2 O 3 bulk glasses and melt-quenched free surfaces, enabling a quantitative analysis of both structure and relaxation dynamics with statistical confidence inaccessible to direct ab initio simulation. The trained DP model reproduces experimental liquid and glass structure, captures the cooling-rate dependence of the bulk glass transition, and corrects systematic biases in the polyhedral populations predicted by widely used classical force fields. At the free surface, mass density recovers to bulk values over ~10 Å, while local coordination requires a slightly wider subsurface region to fully converge. The outermost layer is oxygen-enriched, exhibits altered polyhedral connectivity with contracted Al–O bonds, and hosts a broad population of under-coordinated motifs (notably AlO 3 and OAl 2 ) whose abundances are governed by glass stability. These under-coordinated surface motifs exhibit distinct vibrational signatures and occur as locally paired Lewis acid and Brønsted base sites consistent with bond-valence compensation, yet remain spatially dispersed rather than aggregating into extended clusters. Despite this pronounced structural heterogeneity, surface relaxation and the glass-transition temperature remain comparable to their bulk counterparts, suggesting that the disordered surface is kinetically stable once formed. Together, these results establish a molecular-level picture of amorphous alumina surfaces and demonstrate the capability of machine-learned potentials to resolve structure–property relationships in disordered oxide interfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

From Femtoseconds to Gigaseconds: The SolDeg Platform for the Performance Degradation Analysis of Silicon Heterojunction Solar Cells

Heterojunction Si solar cells exhibit notable performance degradation. Here, we modeled this degradation by electronic defects getting generated by thermal activation across energy barriers over time. To analyze the physics of this degradation, we developed the SolDeg platform to simulate the dynamics of electronic defect generation. First, femtosecond molecular dynamics simulations were performed to create a-Si/c-Si stacks, using the machine learning-based Gaussian approximation potential. Second, we created shocked clusters by a cluster blaster method. Third, the shocked clusters were analyzed to identify which of them supported electronic defects. Fourth, the distribution of energy barriers that control the generation of these electronic defects was determined. Fifth, an accelerated Monte Carlo method was developed to simulate the thermally activated time-dependent defect generation across the barriers. Our main conclusions are as follows. (1) The degradation of a-Si/c-Si heterojunction solar cells via defect generation is controlled by a broad distribution of energy barriers. (2) We developed the SolDeg platform to track the microscopic dynamics of defect generation across this wide barrier distribution and determined the time-dependent defect density N(t) from femtoseconds to gigaseconds, over 24 orders of magnitude in time. (3) We have shown that a stretched exponential analytical form can successfully describe the defect generation N(t) over at least 10 orders of magnitude in time. (4) We found that in relative terms, Voc degrades at a rate of 0.2%/year over the first year, slowing with advancing time. (5) We developed the time correspondence curve to calibrate and validate the accelerated testing of solar cells. We found a compellingly simple scaling relationship between accelerated and normal times t normal ∝ t accel T(accel)/T(normal) . (6) We also carried out experimental studies of defect generation in a-Si:H/c-Si stacks. We found a relatively high degradation rate at early times that slowed considerably at longer time scales.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
NASA NTRS1995

ZBLAN Microgravity Study

One of the greatest obstacles with the fluorozirconate ZBLAN (ZrF4-BaF2-LaF3-AIF3-NaF) is the problem of devitrification. Fluoride glasses have a narrow working range and the viscosity is a strong function of temperature. Rates of nucleation and growth of crystals in the glass depend on the viscosity, making these glasses unstable and prone to crystallization. The viscosity of ZBLAN at the drawing temperature is low, usually between two to five poise, so it is difficult to obtain fibers from their preform melts without crystallization. The preforms usually contain heterogeneous nuclei which grow into microcrystallites above the glass transition temperature, T(g). Since microcrystallites in an optical fiber cause extrinsic light scattering losses of the optical signal, fiber drawing must be completed in a short time to minimize the generation of light scattering centers. To keep these losses to a minimum and to fabricate low scattering loss fibers and other optical components, this research deals with the possibility of minimizing crystallite formation by removing the gravitational influence of solutal segregation of the ZBLAN elements. This report reviews the early work on the KC-135 aircraft, the development of the ZBLAN Rocket Experiment, preparations at the White Sands Missile Range, analysis of the flight and ground test results, lessons learned and future experimentation.

Workman, Gary L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Sensors Observations of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What We Learned from the Great Tohoku Earthquake?

The lessons learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) will affect our future observations and an analysis is the main focus of this presentation. Multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research is presented in our study of the phenomena preceding major earthquakes Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which been reported by others in connections with earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation; temperature; concentration of electrons in the ionosphere; radon/ion activities; and atmospheric temperature/humidity [Ouzounov et al, 2011]. We used the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of several possible paradigms [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011] to interpret our observations. We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of three different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere, ionosphere the ground surface several days before the March 11, 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake Namely: (i) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; (ii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations; and (iii) The change in the foreshock sequence (rate, space and time); Our results show that on March 8th, 2011 a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed and an anomaly developed near the epicenter with largest value occurring on March 11 at 07.30 LT. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting from this day in the lower ionosphere there was also observed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. We use the Japanese GPS network stations and method of Radio Tomography to study the spatiotemporal structure of ionospheric perturbations, and to distinguish ionospheric responses to processes of EQ preparation against the effects of other factors. The 2-D snapshots of the electron density over Japan showed abnormal increase over the maximum stress during the night, a few hours before the main shock. Our results from recording atmospheric and ionospheric conditions during the earthquake indicate the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere and ionospheres occurring consistently over regions of maximum stress near the epicenter. Due to their long duration (hours and days) and spatial appearance (only over the Sendai region) these results do not appear to be caused by meteorological or magnetic activity. They reveal the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to the earthquake, which indicates new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004).

Ouzonounov, D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The impact of the $\text{WHIM}$ on the $\text{IGM}$ thermal state determined from the low- z Lyman $\alpha$ forest

At z ≲ 1, shock heating caused by large-scale velocity flows and possibly violent feedback from galaxy formation, converts a significant fraction of the cool gas (T ~ 10 4 K) in the intergalactic medium (IGM) into warm–hot phase (WHIM) with T > 10 5 K, resulting in a significant deviation from the previously tight power-law IGM temperature–density relationship, T = T 0 (P/$\bar{p}$) γ-1 ⁠. This study explores the impact of the WHIM on measurements of the low-z IGM thermal state, [T 0 , γ], based on the b–NH 1 distribution of the Ly α forest. Exploiting a machine learning-enabled simulation-based inference method trained on Nyx hydrodynamical simulations, we demonstrate that [T 0 , γ] can still be reliably measured from the b–NH 1 distribution at z = 0.1, notwithstanding the substantial WHIM in the IGM. To investigate the effects of different feedback, we apply this inference methodology to mock spectra derived from the IllustrisTNG and Illustris simulations at z = 0.1. The results suggest that the underlying [T 0 , γ] of both simulations can be recovered with biases as low as |Δlog(T 0 /K)| ≲ 0.05 dex, |Δγ| ≲ 0.1, smaller than the precision of a typical measurement. Given the large differences in the volume-weighted WHIM fractions between the three simulations (Illustris 38 percent, IllustrisTNG 10 percent, and Nyx 4 per cent), we conclude that the b–N H1 distribution is not sensitive to the WHIM under realistic conditions. Finally, we investigate the physical properties of the detectable Ly α absorbers, and discover that although their T and Δ distributions remain mostly unaffected by feedback, they are correlated with the photoionization rate used in the simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2021

Optimizing serendipitous detections of kilonovae: cadence and filter selection

The rise of multimessenger astronomy has brought with it the need to exploit all available data streams and learn more about the astrophysical objects that fall within its breadth. One possible avenue is the search for serendipitous optical/near-infrared counterparts of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and gravitational-wave (GW) signals, known as kilonovae. With surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), which observes the sky with a cadence of ∼3 d, the existing counterpart locations are likely to be observed; however, due to the significant amount of sky to explore, it is difficult to search for these fast-evolving candidates. Thus, it is beneficial to optimize the survey cadence for realtime kilonova identification and enable further photometric and spectroscopic observations. We explore how the cadence of wide field-of-view surveys like ZTF can be improved to facilitate such identifications. We show that with improved observational choices, e.g. the adoption of three epochs per night on a ∼ nightly basis, and the prioritization of redder photometric bands, detection efficiencies improve by about a factor of two relative to the nominal cadence. We also provide realistic hypothetical constraints on the kilonova rate as a form of comparison between strategies, assuming that no kilonovae are detected throughout the long-term execution of the respective observing plan. These results demonstrate how an optimal use of ZTF increases the likelihood of kilonova discovery independent of GWs or GRBs, thereby allowing for a sensitive search with less interruption of its nominal cadence through Target of Opportunity programs.

methods: observational↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensor Recommendations for Long Term Monitoring of the F-Area Seepage Basins

In mid-2018, a new paradigm for long-term monitoring was developed after of decade of applied research projects funded by the Department of Energy’s office of Environmental Management Technology Development program. The program at SRNL was focused on transitioning complex environmental waste sites from active to passive remediations strategies. A key result of these studies was that the use of enhanced attenuation approaches at radiologically contaminated sites will result in the creation of secondary source areas in the subsurface that will require monitoring for decades. Alternative monitoring approaches are being developed and tested at the Savannah River Site’s F-Area Hazardous Waste Management Facility, the new paradigm provides innovative solutions that will significantly lower costs of monitoring through the coupling of data collection, machine learning and deterministic groundwater modeling. The foundation of this approach is a well-optimized network of sensors for measuring hydrogeochemical master variables that control, and therefore act as indicators of groundwater contaminant transport. By monitoring changes in the controlling master variables over time arising from geological and environmental shifts, predictive modelling can assist with identifying new strategies for ensuring regulatory requirements are met if trends toward conditions for potential remobilization of attenuated contaminants are detected. In this report, we evaluated commercially available single parameter sensor platforms (e.g., temperature/depth) and configurable multi-parameter sensor platforms (e.g., pH, oxidation-reduction potential, temperature, depth, dissolved oxygen, and conductivity). Each was scored using an optimization function based on how well the system supports the proposed long-term monitoring paradigm, in general, and the site-specific conditions at F-Area, in particular. Several viable sensor systems were identified. Of these, a combined platform including the In-Situ Aqua TROLL 500 multi-parameter sensor platform and the In-Situ temperature/depth sensor had the highest rating and was identified as the most suitable candidate for installation and monitoring of the master variables and potentiometric surface that control groundwater contaminant plumes emanating from the F-Area Seepage Basins. The discussion of recommended potential deployment locations builds upon recommendations made by Denham et al (2019).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collectedunder structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore,their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distanceto the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensembleof trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fittingobserved in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inversephysical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of thesource strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations ofunderlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-assisted combustion simulations with dynamic submodel assignment using random forests

This investigation outlines a data-assisted approach that employs random forest classifiers for local and dynamic submodel assignment in turbulent-combustion simulations. This method is demonstrated in simulations of a single-element GOX/GCH4 rocket combustor; a priori as well as a posteriori assessments are conducted to (i) evaluate the accuracy and adjustability of the classifier for targeting different quantities of interest (QoIs), and (ii) assess improvements, resulting from the data-assisted combustion model assignment, in predicting target QoIs during simulation runtime. Results from the a priori study show that random forests, trained with local flow properties as input variables and combustion model errors as training labels, assign three different combustion models – finite-rate chemistry (FRC), flamelet progress variable (FPV) model, and inert mixing (IM) – with reasonable classification performance even when targeting multiple QoIs. Applications in a posteriori studies demonstrate improved predictions from data-assisted simulations, in temperature and CO mass fraction, when compared with monolithic FPV calculations. An additional a posteriori data-assisted simulation of a modified configuration demonstrates that the present approach can be successfully applied to different configurations, as long as thermophysical behavior can be represented by the training data. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that this data-driven framework holds promise for dynamic combustion submodel assignments in reacting flow simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Creep and Creep Fracture Modeling with Surrogate Creep Models and the Extended Finite Element Method

Alloy components in advanced nuclear reactors will be subjected to environmental conditions that could include high temperatures, irradiation, and exposure to corrosive salts. These conditions could lead to the formation of crack-like defects, which could grow over time in a mechanism known as creep crack growth (CCG). Predicting growth rates of these defects is important for assessing the safe operating life of advanced reactors. This project documents progress toward developing and testing next-generation data-driven constitutive models for deformation creep. It also documents the application of the extended finite element method in conjunction with surrogate creep models to predict CCG parameters under a variety of conditions. These important incremental developments contribute to the longer-term objective of developing microstructure-aware constitutive models that can be used for predicting creep deformation and CCG at the component scale with improved accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods of Association Tested on Dense Nodal Arrays

The association of phase picks to form events is one of the fundamental components of seismology. Large and dense sensor networks, such as >1000 geophone arrays (and distributed acoustic sensing), offer unique challenges in association due to the vast numbers of observations and high likelihood of errant picks. In addition, the large number of stations can greatly increase the time it takes to perform the association. For this reason, machine learning (ML) methods might provide a more optimal method of association for such networks. In this work, we examine how well ML methods (e.g., Gaussian mixture model association, PhaseLink, and Graph Earthquake Neural Interpretation Engine) can incorporate dense seismic arrays into regional networks and how well they handle the increasing numbers of stations. Here, we test their capabilities on two dense seismic deployments, one within Rock Valley Nevada (52 nodes and a 9-station sparse local network), and the LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma dense nodal array (>1800 vertical-component geophones). Processing data from these two different styles of dense seismic deployments allows testing of how the ML algorithms can merge array data with a broader regional network, how they deal with poorly picked phases, and how they handle anthropogenic noise. We compare the ML-associated bulletins to those obtained using the Rapid Earthquake Association and Location algorithm, a more traditional method of association. We find that there are very small differences in results between the methods for small networks (<100 stations) with low pick rates. For large networks (>1000), there are enough errant picks that some of the ML methods start to create false events out of noise. We also find that the ML methods vary in computation time significantly but are all faster than the traditional method tested here.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

NASA's Ares I and Ares V Launch Vehicles--Effective Space Operations Through Efficient Ground Operations

The United States (U.S.) is charting a renewed course for lunar exploration, with the fielding of a new human-rated space transportation system to replace the venerable Space Shuttle, which will be retired after it completes its missions of building the International Space Station (ISS) and servicing the Hubble Space Telescope. Powering the future of space-based scientific exploration will be the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle, which will transport the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle to orbit where it will rendezvous with the Altair Lunar Lander, which will be delivered by the Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle (fig. 1). This configuration will empower rekindled investigation of Earth's natural satellite in the not too distant future. This new exploration infrastructure, developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), will allow astronauts to leave low-Earth orbit (LEO) for extended lunar missions and preparation for the first long-distance journeys to Mars. All space-based operations - to LEO and beyond - are controlled from Earth. NASA's philosophy is to deliver safe, reliable, and cost-effective architecture solutions to sustain this multi-billion-dollar program across several decades. Leveraging SO years of lessons learned, NASA is partnering with private industry and academia, while building on proven hardware experience. This paper outlines a few ways that the Engineering Directorate at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center is working with the Constellation Program and its project offices to streamline ground operations concepts by designing for operability, which reduces lifecycle costs and promotes sustainable space exploration.

Singer, Christopher E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Disruption event characterization and forecasting in tokamaks

Disruption prediction and avoidance is a critical need for next-step tokamaks, such as ITER. Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting (DECAF) research fully automates analysis of tokamak data to determine chains of events that lead to disruptions and to forecast their evolution allowing sufficient time for mitigation or complete avoidance of the disruption. Disruption event chains related to local rotating or global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes and vertical instability are examined with warnings issued for many off-normal physics events, including density limits, plasma dynamics, confinement transitions, and profile variations. Along with Greenwald density limit evaluation, a local radiative island power balance theory is evaluated and compared to the observation of island growth. Automated decomposition and analysis of rotating tearing modes produce physical event chains leading to disruptions. A total MHD state warning model comprised of 15 separate criteria produces a disruption forecast about 180 ms before a standard locked mode detector warning. Single DECAF event analyses have begun on KSTAR, MAST, and NSTX/-U databases with thousands of shot seconds of device operation using from 0.5 to 1 × 10 6 tested sample times per device. An initial multi-device database comparison illustrates a highly important result that plasma disruptivity does not need to increase as βN increases. Global MHD instabilities, such as resistive wall modes (RWMs), can give the briefest time period of warning before disruption compared to other physics events. In an NSTX database with unstable RWMs, the mode onset, loss of boundary and current control, and disruption event warnings are found in all cases and vertical displacement events are found in 91% of cases. An initial time-dependent reduced physics model of kinetic RWM stabilization created to forecast the disruption chain predicts instability 84% of the time for experimentally unstable cases with a relatively low false positive rate. Instances of the disruption event chain analysis illustrate dynamics including H–L back transitions for rotating MHD and global RWM triggering events. Furthermore, disruption warnings are issued with sufficient time before the disruption (on transport timescales) to potentially allow active profile control for disruption avoidance, active mode control, or mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimization of Water-Alternating-CO2 Injection Field Operations Using a Machine-Learning-Assisted Workflow

Summary This paper will present a robust workflow to address multiobjective optimization (MOO) of carbon dioxide (CO2)-enhanced oil recovery (EOR)-sequestration projects with a large number of operational control parameters. Farnsworth unit (FWU) field, a mature oil reservoir undergoing CO2 alternating water injection (CO2-WAG) EOR, will be used as a field case to validate the proposed optimization protocol. The expected outcome of this work would be a repository of Pareto-optimal solutions of multiple objective functions, including oil recovery, carbon storage volume, and project economics. FWU’s numerical model is used to demonstrate the proposed optimization workflow. Because using MOO requires computationally intensive procedures, machine-learning-based proxies are introduced to substitute for the high-fidelity model, thus reducing the total computation overhead. The vector machine regression combined with the Gaussian kernel (Gaussian-SVR) is used to construct proxies. An iterative self-adjusting process prepares the training knowledge base to develop robust proxies and minimizes computational time. The proxies’ hyperparameters will be optimally designed using Bayesian optimization to achieve better generalization performance. Trained proxies will be coupled with multiobjective particle swarm Optimization (MOPSO) protocol to construct the Pareto-front solution repository. The outcomes of this workflow will be a repository containing Pareto-optimal solutions of multiple objectives considered in the CO2-WAG project. The proposed optimization workflow will be compared with another established methodology using a multilayer neural network (MLNN) to validate its feasibility in handling MOO with a large number of parameters to control. Optimization parameters used include operational variables that might be used to control the CO2-WAG process, such as the duration of the water/gas injection period, producer bottomhole pressure (BHP) control, and water injection rate of each well included in the numerical model. It is proved that the workflow coupling Gaussian-SVR proxies and the iterative self-adjusting protocol is more computationally efficient. The MOO process is made more rapid by squeezing the size of the required training knowledge base while maintaining the high accuracy of the optimized results. The outcomes of the optimization study show promising results in successfully establishing the solution repository considering multiple objective functions. Results are also verified by validating the Pareto fronts with simulation results using obtained optimized control parameters. The outcome from this work could provide field operators an opportunity to design a CO2-WAG project using as many inputs as possible from the reservoir models. The proposed work introduces a novel concept that couples Gaussian-SVR proxies with a self-adjusting protocol to increase the computational efficiency of the proposed workflow and to guarantee the high accuracy of the obtained optimized results. More importantly, the workflow can optimize a large number of control parameters used in a complex CO2-WAG process, which greatly extends its utility in solving large-scale MOO problems in various projects with similar desired outcomes.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combined Pre-supernova Alert System with KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande

Preceding a core-collapse supernova (CCSN), various processes produce an increasing amount of neutrinos of all flavors characterized by mounting energies from the interior of massive stars. Among them, the electron antineutrinos are potentially detectable by terrestrial neutrino experiments such as KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande (SK) via inverse beta decay interactions. Once these pre-supernova (pre-SN) neutrinos are observed, an early warning of the upcoming CCSN can be provided. In light of this, KamLAND and SK, both located in the Kamioka mine in Japan, have been monitoring pre-SN neutrinos since 2015 and 2021, respectively. Recently, we performed a joint study between KamLAND and SK on pre-SN neutrino detection. A pre-SN alert system combining the KamLAND detector and the SK detector was developed and put into operation, which can provide a supernova alert to the astrophysics community. Fully leveraging the complementary properties of these two detectors, the combined alert is expected to resolve a pre-SN neutrino signal from a 15 M ⊙ star within 510 pc of the Earth at a significance level corresponding to a false alarm rate of no more than 1 per century. For a Betelgeuse-like model with optimistic parameters, it can provide early warnings up to 12 hr in advance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗