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DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Precursor Analysis Report: Blackmatter Ransomware Attack on New Cooperative 2021

The BlackMatter Ransomware Attack on New Cooperative 2021 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the New Cooperative cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. The BlackMatter ransomware was first identified in July 2021 and is reported to have infected more than 50 corporations around the world. , The Iowa-based grain cooperative, New Cooperative, was impacted by the BlackMatter ransomware on or before 18 September 2021. The adversary likely resided on New Cooperative’s networks for 15 days prior to encrypting its network and demanding New Cooperative pay $5.9 million in ransom by 25 September to unlock systems and prevent 1 terabyte (TB) of sensitive data from being publicly released. It is not clear if New Cooperative paid the ransom. The full impact of the ransomware attack is not known; however, according to New Cooperative’s general manager, the attack caused the company’s automated processes to revert back to processes used in the 1970s. , As of 6 October, only 50 percent of New Cooperative’s operations were utilizing automated processes. The company took eight weeks to rebuild the entire network and information technology (IT) systems from the ground up, which puts the date of fully recovery around 13 November. Researchers and analysts identified 20 unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 404 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Seventeen of the identified techniques used during the New Cooperative cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 360 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 284 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 15 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Cyber Attack on Thyssenkrupp Blast Furnace 2014

The Cyber Attack on Thyssenkrupp Blast Furnace 2014 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Thyssenkrupp Steel Mill cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. In December 2014, the German Government’s Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) released a report detailing a cyber attack on a German steel mill that occurred earlier that year, though exact dates and details of the attack were not revealed. While the report did not specify the name of the company, multiple sources identified the victim as one of Europe’s largest steel manufacturers, Thyssenkrupp AG. Further, Thyssenkrupp announced on 16 May of that year that Europe’s largest blast furnace, “Schwelgern 2,” located at its facility in Duisburg, Germany, would be offline for several weeks for repairs and upgrades, suggesting Schwelgern 2 was likely the target of the attack. The attack began in early 2014, when adversaries infiltrated the victim steel mill’s Information Technology (IT) network via a spearphishing campaign, then worked their way into the Operational Technology (OT) environment, where they executed software that caused denial of service, denial of control, and eventually a loss of control. This led to the blast furnace shutting down without proper safety procedures, resulting in catastrophic physical damage. No lives were lost in the incident, but ThyssenKrupp suffered $4 million in damage to the blast furnace and an additional $6 million in lost revenue. The adversaries required specialized knowledge and expertise in steel production, which enabled them to compromise a variety of internal systems and components across both IT and OT networks. The attack also demonstrated detailed knowledge of the industrial control systems (ICS) and production processes being used. This combination resulted in one of the earliest known publicly reported cybersecurity incidents resulting in physical damage to ICS equipment. Researchers and analysts identified 19 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 20 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 454 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Fifteen of the identified techniques used during the Thyssenkrupp cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 369 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 316 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 120 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Database of Environmental Mitigations Extracted from FERC-Licensed Hydropower Projects Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques, 1998-2023

This dataset provides a comprehensive inventory of environmental mitigation measures required by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) licensed hydropower facilities from 461 licenses that were issued from 1998 to 2023. These licenses constitute 446 of the 1015 FERC projects that were active at the end of 2023. 17,612 mentions of environmental mitigations were identified and categorized in 128 unique categories. Mitigations were identified using a Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach, specifically with a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformer (BERT) model. Model-derived results were then reviewed and updated by a subject matter expert as needed. This dataset introduces important enhancements to previous efforts to inventory environmental mitigations, such as including associated license text for each mitigation, tracking the number of instances a mitigation was identified within a license, and providing improved location information. These enhancements significantly expand the dataset's utility, offering greater analytical capabilities and ensuring reproducibility. The dataset is downloadable as a zip file containing the metadata and dataset files.

Ruggles, Thomas [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated identification of local contamination in remote atmospheric composition time series

Abstract. Atmospheric observations in remote locations offer a possibility of exploring trace gas and particle concentrations in pristine environments. However, data from remote areas are often contaminated by pollution from local sources. Detecting this contamination is thus a central and frequently encountered issue. Consequently, many different methods exist today to identify local contamination in atmospheric composition measurement time series, but no single method has been widely accepted. In this study, we present a new method to identify primary pollution in remote atmospheric datasets, e.g., from ship campaigns or stations with a low background signal compared to the contaminated signal. The pollution detection algorithm (PDA) identifies and flags periods of polluted data in five steps. The first and most important step identifies polluted periods based on the derivative (time derivative) of a concentration over time. If this derivative exceeds a given threshold, data are flagged as polluted. Further pollution identification steps are a simple concentration threshold filter, a neighboring points filter (optional), a median, and a sparse data filter (optional). The PDA only relies on the target dataset itself and is independent of ancillary datasets such as meteorological variables. All parameters of each step are adjustable so that the PDA can be “tuned” to be more or less stringent (e.g., flag more or fewer data points as contaminated). The PDA was developed and tested with a particle number concentration dataset collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic. Using strict settings, we identified 62 % of the data as influenced by local contamination. Using a second independent particle number concentration dataset also collected during MOSAiC, we evaluated the performance of the PDA against the same dataset cleaned by visual inspection. The two methods agreed in 94 % of the cases. Additionally, the PDA was successfully applied to a trace gas dataset (CO2), also collected during MOSAiC, and to another particle number concentration dataset, collected at the high-altitude background station Jungfraujoch, Switzerland. Thus, the PDA proves to be a useful and flexible tool to identify periods affected by local contamination in atmospheric composition datasets without the need for ancillary measurements. It is best applied to data representing primary pollution. The user-friendly and open-access code enables reproducible application to a wide suite of different datasets. It is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5761101 (Beck et al., 2021).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Automatic identification of land uses from ERTS-1 data obtained over Milwaukee, Wisconsin

The author has identified the following significant results. Spectrally, thirteen classes of ground cover were identified within Milwaukee County: five classes of water, grassy open areas, beach, two classes of road, woods, suburban, inner city, and industry. A distinct concentric pattern of land use was identified in the county radiating outward from the central business district. The first ring has a principal feature, termed the inner city, which is indicative of the older part of the county. In the second ring, the land use becomes more complex, consisting of suburban areas, parks, and varied institutional features. The third general ring consists primarily of open, grassy land, with scattered residential subdivisions, wood lots, and small water bodies. The five classes of water identified suggest differences in depth, turbidity, and/or color. A number of major roads were identified. Other spectrally identifiable features included the larger county parks and larger cemeteries.

Baumgardner, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Structural Aspects of System Identification

The problem of identifying linear dynamical systems is studied by considering structural and deterministic properties of linear systems that have an impact on stochastic identification algorithms. In particular considered is parametrization of linear systems so that there is a unique solution and all systems in appropriate class can be represented. It is assumed that a parametrization of system matrices has been established from a priori knowledge of the system, and the question is considered of when the unknown parameters of this system can be identified from input/output observations. It is assumed that the transfer function can be asymptotically identified, and the conditions are derived for the local, global and partial identifiability of the parametrization. Then it is shown that, with the right formulation, identifiability in the presence of feedback can be treated in the same way. Similarly the identifiability of parametrizations of systems driven by unobserved white noise is considered using the results from the theory of spectral factorization.

Glover, Keith↗
NASA NTRS1983

Identification of general linear mechanical systems

Previous work in identification theory has been concerned with the general first order time derivative form. Linear mechanical systems, a large and important class, naturally have a second order form. This paper utilizes this additional structural information for the purpose of identification. A realization is obtained from input-output data, and then knowledge of the system input, output, and inertia matrices is used to determine a set of linear equations whereby we identify the remaining unknown system matrices. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the number, type and placement of sensors and actuators are given which guarantee identificability, and less stringent conditions are given which guarantee generic identifiability. Both a priori identifiability and a posteriori identifiability are considered, i.e., identifiability being insured prior to obtaining data, and identifiability being assured with a given data set.

Sirlin, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Magnetosheath quasi-trapped distributions and ion flows associated with reconnection

Using a sample of ISEE 1 and 2 magnetopause crossings previously identified as times of quasi-steady reconnection, flows of medium energy ions in the magnetosheath are identified. The paper then investigates the particle pitch angle distribution immediately before and after each of these events for the signature of quasi-trapped distributions of energetic ions. Several of the ion flows identified were observed simultaneously with previously identified flux transfer events (FTEs). While FTEs identified from the magnetometer tracings typically show evidence of ion flows, the converse is not necessarily true. However, all properties of the magnetosheath ion flows are the same regardless of whether an FTE can be identified from the magnetometer data. Evidence is found for small-scale reconnection processes (FTEs, ion flows) embedded within a larger region of interconnected field, which is traced out by the quasi-trapped particles. Quasi-trapped distributions of medium-energy ions are seen to sandwich reconnection-associated ion flows in the magnetosheath. The results of this survey have been used to suggest a morphology for reconnection events that incorporates both large- and small-scale features.

Neff, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Fault diagnosis

The objective of the research in this area of fault management is to develop and implement a decision aiding concept for diagnosing faults, especially faults which are difficult for pilots to identify, and to develop methods for presenting the diagnosis information to the flight crew in a timely and comprehensible manner. The requirements for the diagnosis concept were identified by interviewing pilots, analyzing actual incident and accident cases, and examining psychology literature on how humans perform diagnosis. The diagnosis decision aiding concept developed based on those requirements takes abnormal sensor readings as input, as identified by a fault monitor. Based on these abnormal sensor readings, the diagnosis concept identifies the cause or source of the fault and all components affected by the fault. This concept was implemented for diagnosis of aircraft propulsion and hydraulic subsystems in a computer program called Draphys (Diagnostic Reasoning About Physical Systems). Draphys is unique in two important ways. First, it uses models of both functional and physical relationships in the subsystems. Using both models enables the diagnostic reasoning to identify the fault propagation as the faulted system continues to operate, and to diagnose physical damage. Draphys also reasons about behavior of the faulted system over time, to eliminate possibilities as more information becomes available, and to update the system status as more components are affected by the fault. The crew interface research is examining display issues associated with presenting diagnosis information to the flight crew. One study examined issues for presenting system status information. One lesson learned from that study was that pilots found fault situations to be more complex if they involved multiple subsystems. Another was pilots could identify the faulted systems more quickly if the system status was presented in pictorial or text format. Another study is currently under way to examine pilot mental models of the aircraft subsystems and their use in diagnosis tasks. Future research plans include piloted simulation evaluation of the diagnosis decision aiding concepts and crew interface issues. Information is given in viewgraph form.

Abbott, Kathy↗
NASA NTRS1995

Attitude determination using an adaptive multiple model filtering Scheme

Attitude determination has been considered as a permanent topic of active research and perhaps remaining as a forever-lasting interest for spacecraft system designers. Its role is to provide a reference for controls such as pointing the directional antennas or solar panels, stabilizing the spacecraft or maneuvering the spacecraft to a new orbit. Least Square Estimation (LSE) technique was utilized to provide attitude determination for the Nimbus 6 and G. Despite its poor performance (estimation accuracy consideration), LSE was considered as an effective and practical approach to meet the urgent need and requirement back in the 70's. One reason for this poor performance associated with the LSE scheme is the lack of dynamic filtering or 'compensation'. In other words, the scheme is based totally on the measurements and no attempts were made to model the dynamic equations of motion of the spacecraft. We propose an adaptive filtering approach which employs a bank of Kalman filters to perform robust attitude estimation. The proposed approach, whose architecture is depicted, is essentially based on the latest proof on the interactive multiple model design framework to handle the unknown of the system noise characteristics or statistics. The concept fundamentally employs a bank of Kalman filter or submodel, instead of using fixed values for the system noise statistics for each submodel (per operating condition) as the traditional multiple model approach does, we use an on-line dynamic system noise identifier to 'identify' the system noise level (statistics) and update the filter noise statistics using 'live' information from the sensor model. The advanced noise identifier, whose architecture is also shown, is implemented using an advanced system identifier. To insure the robust performance for the proposed advanced system identifier, it is also further reinforced by a learning system which is implemented (in the outer loop) using neural networks to identify other unknown quantities such as spacecraft dynamics parameters, gyro biases, dynamic disturbances, or environment variations.

Lam, Quang↗
NASA NTRS1994

Human Factors Engineering: Current and Emerging Dual-Use Applications

Human Factors Engineering is a multidisciplinary endeavor in which information pertaining to human characteristics is used in the development of systems and machines. Six representatives considered to be experts from the public and private sectors were surveyed in an effort to identify the potential dual-use of human factors technology. Each individual was asked to provide a rating as to the dual-use of 85 identified NASA technologies. Results of the survey were as follows: nearly 75 percent of the technologies were identified at least once as high dual-use by one of the six survey respondents, and nearly 25 percent of the identified NASA technologies were identified as high dual-use technologies by a majority of the respondents. The perceived level of dual-use appeared to be independent of the technology category. Successful identification of dual-use technology requires expanded input from industry. As an adjunct, cost-benefit analysis should be conducted to identify the feasibility of the dual-use technology. Concurrent with this effort should be an examination of precedents established by other technologies in other industrial settings. Advances in human factors and systems engineering are critical to reduce risk in any workplace and to enhance industrial competitiveness.

Chandlee, G. O.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Technical Challenges for Next Generation Composite Duct Technology

The Access to Space Study identified the requirement for lightweight structures to achieve orbit with a single stage vehicle. The use of composite components partially fulfills that requirement. The purpose of this presentation is to review the technical challenges in the use of composite materials and processes for lines and ducts on next generation launch vehicles. This presentation will identify current requirements for space and missile system components; review the state of the art for existing system components; identify show stoppers to advancing the state of the art; identify technical issues that might limit the application of advanced materials; identify key materials that might provide a high payoff; and identify opportunities for joint partnerships to overcome these multiple technical challenges.

Ledbetter, Frank E., III↗
NASA NTRS2002

Lipid Biomarkers for Methanogens in Hypersaline Cyanobacterial Mats for Guerrero Negro, Baja California Sur

Analyses of sediments from the vicinity of active methane seeps have uncovered a particular suite of lipid biomarker patterns that characterize methane consuming archaea and their syntrophic, sulfate reducing partners. These isoprenoid biomarkers, largely identified by their anomalously light carbon isotopic signatures, have been a topic of intense research activity and are recorded in numerous methane-rich environments from Holocene to Cenozoic. This phenomenon has implications for depleted kerogens at 2.7 Ga on early Earth (Hinrichs 2002). In contrast, the lipid biosignatures of methane producing archaea are not readily identified through distinct isotopic labels and have received comparably little attention in analyses of archaea in environmental samples. Indeed, environmental analyses generally detect only free archaeal lipids, not the intact, polar molecules found in the membrane of living organisms. As part of the Ames NAI, the 'Early Microbial Ecosystem Research Group' (EMERG) is working to understand microbial processes in the hypersaline cyanobacterial mats growing in the salt evaporation ponds of the Exportadora de Sal at Guerrero Negro, Baja California Sur, Mexico. The aim of this study was to develop methods by which we could identify the organisms responsible for methane generation in this environment. While the ester-bound fatty acids, hopanoids and wax esters provide a means to identify most of the bacterial components of these mats, the archaea which Ere evidently present through genomic assays and the fact of intense methane production (Hoehler et al. 200l), have not been identified through their corresponding lipid signatures. Archaeal core lipids present a number of analytical challenges. The core lipids of methanogens comprise C20, C40 and sometimes C25 isoprenoid chains, linked through ether bonds to glycerol. As well as archaeal (C20), sn-2- and sn-3-hydroxyarchaeol are associated particularly with methylotrophic methanogens. Recently, we have also identified a dihydroxyarchaeol in a hyperthermophilic methanogen (Summons et al. 2002). Additional structural diversity is encoded into the polar head groups that are attached to the glycerol ether cores. The C20 core lipids are readily analyzed by GC-MS as their volatile trimethylsilyl derivatives while compounds with intact polar head groups can only be detected using LC-MS approaches. Our approach was to utilize the alternative of an ether cleavage reagent (BBr3 vs. HI) and a hydride reducing agent to convert all ether lipids to hydrocarbon in order to provide a vertical profile of quantitative information that might be matched to methane fluxes. We have found that while conventional acid hydrolysis and HI treatment will destroy hydroxyarchaeols, molecular information remains intact through use of BBr3 for ether cleavage. This method revealed the presence of traces of biphytane and various ether alkyls associated with some sulfate reducing bacteria within the mat structure. An interesting, and potentially valuable, byproduct of the method utilizing HI was the identification of abundant homohopanoids after superhydride reduction. Evidently present as sulfur-bound diagenetic products these hopanoids are likely cyanobacterial biomarkers in the early stages of diagenetic preservation.

Jahnke, Linda L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A New Objective Technique for Verifying Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models

This report presents a new objective technique to verify predictions of the sea-breeze phenomenon over east-central Florida by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The Contour Error Map (CEM) technique identifies sea-breeze transition times in objectively-analyzed grids of observed and forecast wind, verifies the forecast sea-breeze transition times against the observed times, and computes the mean post-sea breeze wind direction and speed to compare the observed and forecast winds behind the sea-breeze front. The CEM technique is superior to traditional objective verification techniques and previously-used subjective verification methodologies because: It is automated, requiring little manual intervention, It accounts for both spatial and temporal scales and variations, It accurately identifies and verifies the sea-breeze transition times, and It provides verification contour maps and simple statistical parameters for easy interpretation. The CEM uses a parallel lowpass boxcar filter and a high-order bandpass filter to identify the sea-breeze transition times in the observed and model grid points. Once the transition times are identified, CEM fits a Gaussian histogram function to the actual histogram of transition time differences between the model and observations. The fitted parameters of the Gaussian function subsequently explain the timing bias and variance of the timing differences across the valid comparison domain. Once the transition times are all identified at each grid point, the CEM computes the mean wind direction and speed during the remainder of the day for all times and grid points after the sea-breeze transition time. The CEM technique performed quite well when compared to independent meteorological assessments of the sea-breeze transition times and results from a previously published subjective evaluation. The algorithm correctly identified a forecast or observed sea-breeze occurrence or absence 93% of the time during the two- month evaluation period from July and August 2000. Nearly all failures in CEM were the result of complex precipitation features (observed or forecast) that contaminated the wind field, resulting in a false identification of a sea-breeze transition. A qualitative comparison between the CEM timing errors and the subjectively determined observed and forecast transition times indicate that the algorithm performed very well overall. Most discrepancies between the CEM results and the subjective analysis were again caused by observed or forecast areas of precipitation that led to complex wind patterns. The CEM also failed on a day when the observed sea- breeze transition affected only a very small portion of the verification domain. Based on the results of CEM, the RAMS tended to predict the onset and movement of the sea-breeze transition too early and/or quickly. The domain-wide timing biases provided by CEM indicated an early bias on 30 out of 37 days when both an observed and forecast sea breeze occurred over the same portions of the analysis domain. These results are consistent with previous subjective verifications of the RAMS sea breeze predictions. A comparison of the mean post-sea breeze winds indicate that RAMS has a positive wind-speed bias for .all days, which is also consistent with the early bias in the sea-breeze transition time since the higher wind speeds resulted in a faster inland penetration of the sea breeze compared to reality.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

MGS/TES-Odyssey/THEMIS-IR Analysis of Localized Low Albedo Regions in Valles Marineris

We are conducting a systematic analysis of small (approximately 10's of km), localized regions in Valles Marineris that display significant albedo differences relative to their surroundings. This analysis is based on a finding that the locations of the hematite deposits identified by [1] in the interior layered deposits of Valles Marineris typically coincide with regions having a low MGS/TES visible bolometric albedo [1,2]. Until recently, it was difficult to identify the morphology or geologic context of the regions containing the hematite deposits. However, with the recent advent of high-resolution (1/128 /pixel) MOLA grided topography and Mars Odyssey s THEMIS-IR instrument, it has been possible to better understand the morphologic context of TES observations. This analysis combines the use of PDS-released data from the MGS/TES visible bolometer and infrared spectrometer, the Odyssey/THEMIS Infrared imager, and MOLA grided topography. First, the TES infrared bolometer is used to identify regions of interesting albedo variability, and is overlaid on Viking controlled photomosaics for context. THEMIS-IR data, in conjunction with MOLA topography, is then used to: 1) identify the context and morphology of the area; and 2) identify spectrally unique regions at the km scale. In preparation for the latter, all the THEMIS planes are coregistered using an autocorrelation routine, the data are converted to brightness temperature and then each plane is normalized to the brightness temperature of the third plane (1261 cm-1). We then perform a 3-band search for color variations and a Principle Components Analysis (PCA) of the 8 unique bands in the THEMIS-IR dataset. Any variability is then investigated using both THEMIS-IR and TES spectra of the same regions. In both cases, the spectra are ratioed to near-simultaneously acquired spectra of adjacent or "average" regions that do not show this albedo variation, therefore allowing us to identify spectral variability unique to the area of interest. This procedure also allows us to account for calibration problems in THEMIS-IR data, and for any atmospheric effects in both the THEMIS-IR and the TES data.

E Z Noe Dobrea↗
NASA NTRS2000

Problem Definition and Solution Concept for En Route Constrained Airspace Problems

NASA's AATT Program is investigating potential ground-based decision support tool (DST) development for en route controllers and managers. NASA's previous work in en route DST development has focused on Transition airspace, where aircraft are impacted by constraints associated with the transition of aircraft from en route to terminal airspace. This paper investigates the problems associated with aircraft in non-transitional en route airspace, termed Constrained Airspace. A literature search was performed to catalog previously identified constrained airspace problems. The results of this search were investigated with industry representatives to validate these problems were significant in constrained airspace. Three general problem areas were identified. The first problem area involves negative impacts caused by a loss of airspace (e.g., activation of Special Use Airspace (SUA), weather cell formation, and overloaded sectors). The second problem area is the lack of identifying and taking advantage of gained airspace (e.g., SUA deactivation, weather dissipation, and sector loading reductions). The third problem area is unforeseen negative impacts caused by the acceptance of user routing requests (e.g., a route change into an area of congestion that negated the users intended benefit). Based upon the problems identified, an operational concept was developed for a DST to help handle these problems efficiently. The goal is to strategically identify constrained airspace problems and to provide functionality to support ARTCC TMUs in resolving the identified impacts. The capability lends itself well to TMU and Airline Operations Center (AOC) collaboration.

Green, Steven↗