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NASA NTRS2020

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics↗
NASA NTRS1986

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Dean, Edwin B.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Accuracy Assessment of Global Internal-Tide Models Using Satellite Altimetry Models Using Satellite Altimetry

Altimeter measurements are corrected for several geophysical parameters in order to access ocean signals of interest, like mesoscale or sub-mesoscale variability. The ocean tide is one of the most critical corrections due to the amplitude of the tidal elevations and to the aliasing phenomena of high-frequency signals into the lower-frequency band, but the internal-tide signatures at the ocean surface are not yet corrected globally. Internal tides can have a signature of several centimeters at the surface with wavelengths of about 50–250 km for the first mode and even smaller scales for higher-order modes. The goals of the upcoming Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission and other high-resolution ocean measurements make the correction of these small-scale signals a challenge, as the correction of all tidal variability becomes mandatory to access accurate measurements of other oceanic signals. In this context, several scientific teams are working on the development of new internal-tide models, taking advantage of the very long altimeter time series now available, which represent an unprecedented and valuable global ocean database. The internal-tide models presented here focus on the coherent internal-tide signal and they are of three types: empirical models based upon analysis of existing altimeter missions, an assimilative model and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. A detailed comparison and validation of these internal-tide models is proposed using existing satellite altimeter databases. The analysis focuses on the four main tidal constituents: M2, K1, O1 and S2. The validation process is based on a statistical analysis of multi-mission altimetry including Jason-2 and Cryosphere Satellite-2 data. The results show a significant altimeter variance reduction when using internal-tide corrections in all ocean regions where internal tides are generating or propagating. A complementary spectral analysis also gives some estimation of the performance of each model as a function of wavelength and some insight into the residual non-stationary part of internal tides in the different regions of interest. This work led to the implementation of a new internal-tide correction (ZARON'one) in the next geophysical data records version-F (GDR-F) standards.

Loren Carrere↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of Physics-Based 0-10Hz Strong Motion Using High Performance Computing Supporting Refinements to Regional Ground Motion Models for the Central Eastern US

In collaboration with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) the LLNL has developed a computationally efficient simulation platform designed to perform physics-based ground motion simulations for crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using high-performance computing. The main objective of the earthquake simulations was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of existing ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-10Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model (1994). In simulations performed during the first stage of this project the Saikia’s velocity model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for the CEUS region recorded during the Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma (Taylor et al., 2017), and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes. The proposed regional 3D model includes random perturbations to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors (2021). In addition, validation analysis of the rupture generator and regional wave propagation models, using comparisons with different GMMs for Mw6.5 and Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes in the CEUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. For the purposes of seismic hazard assessment at the existing and planned nuclear power plants, NRC is interested in studies aimed at improving the current ground motion models (GMM) for both Stable Continental Regions (SCR) in the Central and Eastern US and Active Crustal Regions (ACR) in the Western US. Due to lack of recorded data, these improvements require synthetic data for short fault distances and large magnitude earthquakes for which the existing recorded data is not enough to uniquely constrain the GMMs. The need for simulations and strong motion data is especially critical for the CEUS region where we do not have recorded data from potentially large damaging earthquakes with moment magnitudes 6.0 and higher. In this the project, we focused on 10Hz simulations of Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes with strike slip and thrust faulting mechanisms. We used more than 50 Mw7.0 earthquake rupture scenarios to investigate the ground motion uncertainty due to unknown earthquake rupture parameters, in particular, the slip distribution, rupture velocity, and faulting mechanism, and their implication on ground motion amplification due to forward rupture directivity effects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1994

A comparison of cosmological hydrodynamic codes

We present a detailed comparison of the simulation results of various hydrodynamic codes. Starting with identical initial conditions based on the cold dark matter scenario for the growth of structure, with parameters h = 0.5 Omega = Omega(sub b) = 1, and sigma(sub 8) = 1, we integrate from redshift z = 20 to z = O to determine the physical state within a representative volume of size L(exp 3) where L = 64 h(exp -1) Mpc. Five indenpendent codes are compared: three of them Eulerian mesh-based and two variants of the smooth particle hydrodynamics 'SPH' Lagrangian approach. The Eulerian codes were run at N(exp 3) = (32(exp 3), 64(exp 3), 128(exp 3), and 256(exp 3)) cells, the SPH codes at N(exp 3) = 32(exp 3) and 64(exp 3) particles. Results were then rebinned to a 16(exp 3) grid with the exception that the rebinned data should converge, by all techniques, to a common and correct result as N approaches infinity. We find that global averages of various physical quantities do, as expected, tend to converge in the rebinned model, but that uncertainites in even primitive quantities such as (T), (rho(exp 2))(exp 1/2) persists at the 3%-17% level achieve comparable and satisfactory accuracy for comparable computer time in their treatment of the high-density, high-temeprature regions as measured in the rebinned data; the variance among the five codes (at highest resolution) for the mean temperature (as weighted by rho(exp 2) is only 4.5%. Examined at high resolution we suspect that the density resolution is better in the SPH codes and the thermal accuracy in low-density regions better in the Eulerian codes. In the low-density, low-temperature regions the SPH codes have poor accuracy due to statiscal effects, and the Jameson code gives the temperatures which are too high, due to overuse of artificial viscosity in these high Mach number regions. Overall the comparison allows us to better estimate errors; it points to ways of improving this current generation ofhydrodynamic codes and of suiting their use to problems which exploit their best individual features.

Kang, Hyesung↗
DOE OSTI2018

Electronics Upgrades to the Green is Clean Phoswich Detector Systems and Programmatic Implementation at LANL - Phase II Completion - 18403

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) radiological facilities produce low-density room trash that, in many cases, is not contaminated with radioactivity. It has been estimated that 50 to 90% of low-density room trash is free of radioactive contamination and eligible for inclusion in LANL's Green is Clean (GIC) program. The GIC program is a verification program for non-regulated waste from radiation controlled areas that has been actively segregated as nonradioactive through the use of the waste generator's acceptable knowledge. The GIC program has employed two large area Phoswich gamma ray detector systems (HERCULES and ZEUS) to verify that GIC candidate low-density waste contains no radioactivity above background. The large area (127 cm{sup 2}) Phoswich detectors consist of a thin NaI front crystal (3 mm thick) that is optically coupled to a thick CsI back crystal (50 mm thick). The scintillation properties of the two crystals are different enough to allow the system's electronic components to identify the origin of any pulse. The original systems utilize Nuclear Instrumentation Module (NIM) electronics to process the detector signals. The electronics currently in use by the systems are out of date and some components are no longer manufactured. In 2015, phase I upgrades to the GIC detector systems were completed. Phase I objectives included identifying more modern commercially available electronics that could replace the NIM electronics. A pulse shape discriminator (PSD) module, the Digital Gamma Finder (DGF) Pixie-4 made by XIA LLC, that fits in a compact National Instruments{sup TM} PXI chassis was identified to replace the majority of the original NIM bin electronics - a single Pixie-4 module replaces four NIM amplifiers and four NIM pulse shape analyzers (PSAs). Another phase I objective was to show that that new PSD could separate out the NaI and CsI detector signals in a manner equivalent to or better than the NIM electronics. Proof of concept was achieved in 2015 when a prototype upgrade system on ZEUS was built and tested and gating parameter settings were determined that successfully separated the NaI and CsI signals. Phase II required establishing a LabVIEW software interface with Pixie-4 electronics in lieu of the manufacturer provided Pixie-4 software called the Pixie Viewer. In addition, phase II included 1) final optimization of the gating parameters on the prototype Pixie-4 ZEUS system, 2) finalizing Requirements, Design and Test Plan documents, 3) LabVIEW software interface quality assurance (QA) testing, 4) setting up the HERCULES system with the Pixie-4 upgrade electronics, 5) check source and background calibration of both systems, 6) absolute efficiency determination on both systems and 7) procedure revisions and implementation of both systems into routine operations. In 2017 phase II was completed including the preparation of detailed Requirements, Design and Test Plan documents. The LabVIEW interface software that communicates and controls the Pixie-4 has been completed, merged with the preexisting LabVIEW operations software and fully tested. Gating parameter optimization, configuration of HERCULES with the Pixie-4 electronics, check source and background calibrations and absolute efficiency determinations have all been performed - quantitative results are presented in the full paper. For performance validation, comparison measurements of actual GIC bags on both the HERCULES system using the old NIM Bin electronics and the ZEUS system using the upgraded Pixie-4 electronics have been done and evaluated. Finally, procedure revisions and implementation of both systems into routine operations is currently in process and planned to be complete by the end of calendar year 2017. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2008

Modern Era Retrospective Restrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Data and Services at the GES DISC

The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset is a NASA satellite era, 30 year (1979 - present), reanalysis using the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project, run out of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at Goddard Space Flight Center, provides the science and application communities with a state-of-the-art global analysis with emphasis on improved estimates of the hydrological cycle over a broad range of weather and climate time scales. MERRA products are generated as a long-term synthesis that places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The MERRA analysis is performed at a horizontal resolution of 2/3 longitude x 1/2 latitude (540x361 global gridpoints) with observational analyses every 6 hours. The MERRA output data will include 3 dimensional state fields for every 6 hourly analysis cycle on 42 pressure levels (or 72 terrain following model coordinate levels) from the surface through the stratosphere. Several data products are specifically designed to support chemistry and stratosphere transport modeling. The 2 dimensional surface and atmospheric diagnostics (numbering 259) are being stored on the native grid at 1 hourly intervals. These include radiation and vertical integrals of the atmosphere for water and energy budget studies and also surface diagnostics where the diurnal cycle is important. The one hourly surface and near surface data product will also facilitate research on the integrated analysis of Earth system observations in the land, ocean and cryosphere. The MERRA products are archived and distributed by the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) through its Modeling DISC Web (MDISC) portal. Multiple data access methods and services are available for MERRA data through MDISC: (1) Mirador offers a quick, comprehensive search of MERRA and all GES DISC archived data holdings, allowing searches on keywords, location names or latitude/longitude box, and date/time, with responses within a few seconds. (2) Giovanni is a GES DISC developed Web application that provides data visualization and analysis online. Giovanni features popular visualizations such as latitude-longitude maps, animations, cross sections, profiles, time series, etc. and some basic statistical analysis functions such as scatter plots and correlation coefficient maps. Users are able to download results in several different formats, including Google Earth. (3) On-the-fly parameter subsetting of data within a spatial/temporal window is provided through a simple select and click Web page. (4) MERRA data are also available via OPeNDAP, GrADS Data Server (GDS) and can be converted to netCDF on the fly.

Berrick, Stephen W.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Are ultra-faint galaxies at z = 6–8 responsible for cosmic reionization? Combined constraints from the Hubble Frontier Fields clusters and parallels

We use deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging of the Frontier Fields to accurately measure the galaxy rest-frame ultraviolet luminosity function (UV LF) in the redshift range z ∼ 6–8. We combine observations in three lensing clusters, A2744, MACS 0416, and MACS 0717, and their associated parallel fields to select high-redshift dropout candidates. We use the latest lensing models to estimate the flux magnification and the effective survey volume in combination with completeness simulations performed in the source plane. We report the detection of 227 galaxy candidates at z = 6–7 and 25 candidates at z ∼ 8. While the total survey area is about 4 arcmin{sup 2} in each parallel field, it drops to about 0.6–1 arcmin{sup 2} in the cluster core fields because of the strong lensing. We compute the UV LF at z ∼ 7 using the combined galaxy sample and perform Monte Carlo simulations to determine the best-fit Schechter parameters. We are able to reliably constrain the LF down to an absolute magnitude of M{sub UV} = −15.25, which corresponds to 0.005 L{sup ⋆}. More importantly, we find that the faint-end slope remains steep down to this magnitude limit with α=−2.04{sub −0.17}{sup +0.13}. We find a characteristic magnitude of M{sup ⋆}=−20.89{sub −0.72}{sup +0.60} and log(ϕ{sup ⋆}) = −3.54{sub −0.45}{sup +0.48}. Our results confirm the most recent results in deep blank fields but extend the LF measurements more than two magnitudes deeper. The UV LF at z ∼ 8 is not very well constrained below M{sub UV} = −18 owing to the small number statistics and incompleteness uncertainties. To assess the contribution of galaxies to cosmic reionization, we derive the UV luminosity density at z ∼ 7 by integrating the UV LF down to an observational limit of M{sub UV} = −15. We show that our determination of log(ρ{sub UV}) = 26.2 ± 0.13 (erg s{sup −1} Hz{sup −1} Mpc{sup −3}) can be sufficient to maintain reionization with an escape fraction of ionizing radiation of f{sub esc} = 10%–15%. Future Hubble Frontier Fields observations will certainly improve the constraints on the UV LF at the epoch of reionization, paving the way to more ambitious programs using cosmic telescopes with the next generation of large aperture telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope and the European Extremely Large Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Diagnostics, Control and Performance Parameters for the BELLA High Repetition Rate Petawatt Class Laser

A laser system producing controllable and stable pulses with high power and ultrashort duration at high repetition rate is a key component of a high energy laser-plasma accelerator (LPA). Precise characterization and control of laser properties are essential to understanding laser-plasma interactions required to build a 10-GeV class LPA. This study discusses the diagnostics, control and performance parameters of a 1 Hz, 1 petawatt (PW) class laser at the Berkeley Lab Laser Accelerator (BELLA) facility. The BELLA PW laser provided up to 46 J on target with a 1% level energy fluctuation and 1.3-μrad pointing stability. The spatial profile was measured and optimized by using a camera, wavefront sensor, and deformable mirror (ILAO system). The focus waist was measured to be r 0 = 53 μm and the fraction of energy within the circular area defined by the first minimum of the diffraction pattern (r = 67 μm) was 0.75. The temporal profile was controlled via the angle of incidence on a stretcher and a compressor, as well as an acousto-optic programmable dispersive. The temporal pulse shape was measured to be about 33 fs in full width at half maximum (WIZZLER and GRENOUILLE diagnostics). In order to accurately evaluate peak intensity, the energy-normalized peak fluence, and energy-normalized peak power were analyzed for the measured spatial and temporal mode profiles, and were found to be 15 kJ/(cm 2 J) with 6% fluctuation (standard deviation) and 25 TW/J with 5% fluctuation for 46-J on-target energy, respectively. This yielded a peak power of 1.2 PW and a peak intensity of 17×10 18 W/cm 2 with 8% fluctuation. A method to model the pulse shape for arbitrary compressor grating distance with high accuracy was developed. The pulse contrast above the amplified spontaneous emission pedestal was measured by SEQUOIA and found to be better than 10 9 . The first order spatiotemporal couplings (STCs) were measured with GRENOUILLE, and a simulation of the pulse's evolution at the vicinity of the target was presented. A maximum pulse front tilt angle of less than 7 mrad was achieved. The reduction of the peak power caused by the first order STCs was estimated to be less than 1%. Finally, the capabilities described in this paper are essential for generation of high quality electron beams.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

First multi-institutional systematic comparison of the neutron ambient dose equivalent produced by proton therapy systems

Objective. Isochronous cyclotrons, synchrocyclotrons, and synchrotrons are used to accelerate protons for proton therapy. An accurate measurement of neutron doses generated by these accelerators and associated delivery systems and its clinical relevance requires systematic protocols and proper neutron dosimetry for a meaningful assessment. We present the first comprehensive comparison of neutron ambient dose equivalent (H*(10)) produced by clinically operational proton therapy systems. Approach. Treatment plans with 10 cm modulation-depth and ranges of 10 cm (R10M10) and 25 cm (R25M10) were created to cover a 10 × 10 × 10 cm 3 water target. The pencil beam scanning proton therapy machines studied were: two gantry-mounted synchrocyclotrons (Hyperscan, Mevion, half-gantry), two isochronous cyclotrons (ProBeam, Varian, full-gantry), one isochronous cyclotron (Proteus, IBA, full-gantry), and two synchrotrons (PROBEAT, Hitachi, full- and half-gantry). Proton beams were delivered to 30 × 30 × 40 cm 3 plastic water phantoms. WENDI-II and LUPIN-BF3-NP neutron rem-meters were positioned at three angles (0°, 45°, 90°) relative to the beam direction to measure the neutron H*(10) at distances between 50–300 cm from the isocenter. Main results. H*(10) showed dependence on beam energy, machine type, and measurement location. The highest reading was for the gantry-mounted synchrocyclotron, whereas other systems produced approximately comparable neutron doses. In all cases, the H*(10) reduced with distance from the isocenter. The H*(10) drop at 2 m distance compared to that at 0.5 m was a factor of ∼5 for the gantry-mounted synchrocyclotron whereas in other systems the decrease was a factor of 10. The WENDI-II device suffered from dead-time-associated under-estimation of the dose by a factor of ∼2–3 under the synchrocyclotron beam due to its high dose-per-pulse. However, WENDI-II and LUPIN-BF3-NP results were within reasonable agreement in isochronous cyclotron and synchrotron beams, indicating that both devices are suitable for those systems. Significance. Neutron H*(10) is dependent on various parameters including beam energy, measurement location, as well as machine design. Caution must be exercised in choosing the appropriate neutron-dose-measurement device to be used for low-duty-factor, particularly in high-instantaneous-rate proton delivery systems. By delivering the same volumetric proton dose across different machines, this work provides a benchmark for inter-system comparisons and serves as a foundation for future studies.

LUPIN↗
DOE OSTI2021

GAMA/DEVILS: constraining the cosmic star formation history from improved measurements of the 0.3–2.2 μm extragalactic background light

We present a revised measurement of the optical extragalactic background light (EBL), based on the contribution of resolved galaxies to the integrated galaxy light (IGL). The cosmic optical background radiation (COB), encodes the light generated by star formation, and provides a wealth of information about the cosmic star formation history (CSFH). We combine wide and deep galaxy number counts from the Galaxy And Mass Assembly survey (GAMA) and Deep Extragalactic VIsible Legacy Survey (DEVILS), along with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) archive and other deep survey data sets, in nine multiwavelength filters to measure the COB in the range from 0.35 μm to 2.2 μm. We derive the luminosity density in each band independently and show good agreement with recent and complementary estimates of the optical-EBL from very high-energy (VHE) experiments. Our error analysis suggests that the IGL and γ-ray measurements are now fully consistent to within $\sim 10{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, suggesting little need for any additional source of diffuse light beyond the known galaxy population. We use our revised IGL measurements to constrain the CSFH, and place amplitude constraints on a number of recent estimates. As a consistency check, we can now demonstrate convincingly, that the CSFH, stellar mass growth, and the optical-EBL provide a fully consistent picture of galaxy evolution. Here, we conclude that the peak of star formation rate lies in the range 0.066–0.076 M ⊙ yr -1 Mpc -3 at a lookback time of 9.1 to 10.9 Gyr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived from Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived From Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS1994

Photosynthetic fractionation of 13C and concentrations of dissolved CO2 in the central equatorial Pacific during the last 255,000 years

Carbon isotopically based estimates of CO2 levels have been generated from a record of the photosynthetic fractionation of 13C [is equivalent to epsilon(p)] in a central equatorial Pacific sediment core that spans the last approximately 255 ka. Contents of 13C in phytoplanktonic biomass were determined by analysis of C37 alkadienones. These compounds are exclusive products of Prymnesiophyte algae which at present grow most abundantly at depths of 70-90 m in the central equatorial Pacific. A record of the isotopic composition of dissolved CO2 was constructed from isotopic analyses of the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, which calcifies at 70-90 m in the same region. Values of epsilon(p), derived by comparison of the organic and inorganic delta values, were transformed to yield concentrations of dissolved CO2 [is equivalent to c(e)] based on a new, site-specific calibration of the relationship between epsilon(p) and c(e). The calibration was based on reassessment of existing epsilon(p) versus c(e) data, which support a physiologically based model in which epsilon(p) is inversely related to c(e). Values of PCO2, the partial pressure of CO2 that would be in equilibrium with the estimated concentrations of dissolved CO2, were calculated using Henry's law and the temperature determined from the alkenone-unsaturation index U(K/37). Uncertainties in these values arise mainly from uncertainties about the appropriateness (particularly over time) of the site-specific relationship between epsilon(p) and 1/c(e). These are discussed in detail and it is concluded that the observed record of epsilon(p) most probably reflects significant variations in delta pCO2, the ocean-atmosphere disequilibrium, which appears to have ranged from approximately 110 microatmospheres during glacial intervals (ocean > atmosphere) to approximately 60 microatmospheres during interglacials. Fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere would thus have been significantly larger during glacial intervals. If this were characteristic of large areas of the equatorial Pacific, then greater glacial sinks for the equatorially evaded CO2 must have existed elsewhere. Statistical analysis of air-sea pCO2 differences and other parameters revealed significant (p<0.01) inverse correlations of delta pCO2 with sea surface temperature and with the mass accumulation rate of opal. The former suggests response to the strength of upwelling, the latter may indicate either drawdown of CO2 by siliceous phytoplankton or variation of [CO2]/[Si(OH)4] ratios in upwelling waters.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Burnup BWR LOCA Burst Analysis Framework Development and Demonstration

Nuclear power currently contributes approximately 20% of total electricity generation in the United States and more than 10% globally. Given the increasing reliance on nuclear energy to achieve our nation’s goal of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, there is significant pressure on the existing nuclear industry to extend plant operational licenses and improve efficiency. This is crucial as the existing nuclear fleet serves as a vital bridge until new light water and advanced reactors can be developed and deployed, bolstering the supply of carbon-free energy to meet domestic demands. Operational costs primarily consist of plant operation and maintenance and fuel costs, influenced by materials and reactor core designs. These factors, coupled with heavily subsidized renewable energy markets, create a challenging economic environment for the existing light water reactor fleet, as well as for new build projects. To address these economic challenges, the nuclear industry has developed a strategic blueprint aimed at enhancing nuclear power’s economic sustainability. Past initiatives, such as efforts to eliminate fuel failures by 2010 and reduce operating costs by 30% before 2020, have laid the groundwork. Optimizing core design parameters, including burnup limits and enrichment levels, can lengthen cycles, reduce outages, reduce batch reload batch fractions and spent fuel storage requirements, and lower maintenance and operating expenses, thereby enhancing economic viability. In the United States, boiling water reactors (BWRs) comprise approximately one-third of the fleet, although much of the research and development focus has traditionally been on pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Advances in modeling and simulation, particularly through the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, are crucial to the long-term viability of BWRs, just as they are for PWRs. A key research area of the high burnup/increased enriched fuel initiative is focused on addressing loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA)-related issues. NEAMS has dedicated significant effort to enhancing tools to better support BWRs, with a current focus on showcasing the BWR framework for high-burnup LOCA analysis. This high-fidelity work will demonstrate a best estimate pin-by-pin high-burnup BWR LOCA analysis to assess full-core cladding rupture behavior. This modeling capability will help with better understanding and realistic evaluation of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) phenomena at BWRs, which then could be used to prevent FFRD at BWRs without penalizing operational parameters. In addition, the results of this work will help identify strategies to identify additional margins or to potentially limit cladding rupture through core design optimizations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

The evaluation of a 2D diode array in “magic phantom” for use in high dose rate brachytherapy pretreatment quality assurance

Purpose: High dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy is a treatment method that is used increasingly worldwide. The development of a sound quality assurance program for the verification of treatment deliveries can be challenging due to the high source activity utilized and the need for precise measurements of dwell positions and times. This paper describes the application of a novel phantom, based on a 2D 11 × 11 diode array detection system, named “magic phantom” (MPh), to accurately measure plan dwell positions and times, compare them directly to the treatment plan, determine errors in treatment delivery, and calculate absorbed dose. Methods: The magic phantom system was CT scanned and a 20 catheter plan was generated to simulate a nonspecific treatment scenario. This plan was delivered to the MPh and, using a custom developed software suite, the dwell positions and times were measured and compared to the plan. The original plan was also modified, with changes not disclosed to the primary authors, and measured again using the device and software to determine the modifications. A new metric, the “position–time gamma index,” was developed to quantify the quality of a treatment delivery when compared to the treatment plan. The MPh was evaluated to determine the minimum measurable dwell time and step size. The incorporation of the TG-43U1 formalism directly into the software allows for dose calculations to be made based on the measured plan. The estimated dose distributions calculated by the software were compared to the treatment plan and to calibrated EBT3 film, using the 2D gamma analysis method. Results: For the original plan, the magic phantom system was capable of measuring all dwell points and dwell times and the majority were found to be within 0.93 mm and 0.25 s, respectively, from the plan. By measuring the altered plan and comparing it to the unmodified treatment plan, the use of the position–time gamma index showed that all modifications made could be readily detected. The MPh was able to measure dwell times down to 0.067 ± 0.001 s and planned dwell positions separated by 1 mm. The dose calculation carried out by the MPh software was found to be in agreement with values calculated by the treatment planning system within 0.75%. Using the 2D gamma index, the dose map of the MPh plane and measured EBT3 were found to have a pass rate of over 95% when compared to the original plan. Conclusions: The application of this magic phantom quality assurance system to HDR brachytherapy has demonstrated promising ability to perform the verification of treatment plans, based upon the measured dwell positions and times. The introduction of the quantitative position–time gamma index allows for direct comparison of measured parameters against the plan and could be used prior to patient treatment to ensure accurate delivery.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗