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At least 1,639 records · Page 91

Principal Component Noise Filtering for NAST-I Radiometric Calibration

The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Airborne Sounder Testbed- Interferometer (NAST-I) instrument is a high-resolution scanning interferometer that measures emitted thermal radiation between 3.3 and 18 microns. The NAST-I radiometric calibration is achieved using internal blackbody calibration references at ambient and hot temperatures. In this paper, we introduce a refined calibration technique that utilizes a principal component (PC) noise filter to compensate for instrument distortions and artifacts, therefore, further improve the absolute radiometric calibration accuracy. To test the procedure and estimate the PC filter noise performance, we form dependent and independent test samples using odd and even sets of blackbody spectra. To determine the optimal number of eigenvectors, the PC filter algorithm is applied to both dependent and independent blackbody spectra with a varying number of eigenvectors. The optimal number of PCs is selected so that the total root-mean-square (RMS) error is minimized. To estimate the filter noise performance, we examine four different scenarios: apply PC filtering to both dependent and independent datasets, apply PC filtering to dependent calibration data only, apply PC filtering to independent data only, and no PC filters. The independent blackbody radiances are predicted for each case and comparisons are made. The results show significant reduction in noise in the final calibrated radiances with the implementation of the PC filtering algorithm.

Tian, Jialin↗

Model error estimation for large flexible spacecraft

The basic model obtained for spacecraft control system design applications is used to develop the control and estimation algorithms which constitute integral elements of the control system. The performance of this system is limited on account of modeling errors. The presence of such errors is inevitable in connection with truncated dynamics, parameter uncertainties, neglected nonlinearities, and external disturbances. In many cases, an approximate knowledge of the model errors can only be established by means of an estimation procedure. The present investigation has the objective to outline an approach to estimate errors inherent in a reduced-order model and to illustrate its application to modeling problems arising in spacecraft control system design. The considered procedure makes use of the principle of least-squares. In the discussed application this principle is employed to minimize a quadratic functional of the model errors.

Rodriguez, G.↗

Flight evaluation of a Mach 3 cruise longitudinal autopilot

At high Mach numbers (approximately 3) and altitudes greater than 70,000 feet, the original altitude and Mach hold modes of the YF-12 autopilot produced aircraft excursions that were erratic or divergent or both. Data analysis and simulator studies showed that static pressure port sensitivity to angle of attack had a detrimental effect on the performance of both altitude and Mach hold modes. Good altitude hold performance was obtained when a high-passed pitch rate feedback was added to compensate for angle-of-attack sensitivity and the altitude error and integral altitude gains were reduced. Good Mach hold performance was obtained with the removal of angle-of-attack sensitivity.

Gilyard, G. B.↗

Air data position-error calibration using state reconstruction techniques

During the highly maneuverable aircraft technology (HiMAT) flight test program recently completed at NASA Ames Research Center's Dryden Flight Research Facility, numerous problems were experienced in airspeed calibration. This necessitated the use of state reconstruction techniques to arrive at a position-error calibration. For the HiMAT aircraft, most of the calibration effort was expended on flights in which the air data pressure transducers were not performing accurately. Following discovery of this problem, the air data transducers of both aircraft were wrapped in heater blankets to correct the problem. Additional calibration flights were performed, and from the resulting data a satisfactory position-error calibration was obtained. This calibration and data obtained before installation of the heater blankets were used to develop an alternate calibration method. The alternate approach took advantage of high-quality inertial data that was readily available. A linearized Kalman filter (LKF) was used to reconstruct the aircraft's wind-relative trajectory; the trajectory was then used to separate transducer measurement errors from the aircraft position error. This calibration method is accurate and inexpensive. The LKF technique has an inherent advantage of requiring that no flight maneuvers be specially designed for airspeed calibrations. It is of particular use when the measurements of the wind-relative quantities are suspected to have transducer-related errors.

Whitmore, S. A.↗

Cache-based error recovery for shared memory multiprocessor systems

A multiprocessor cache-based checkpointing and recovery scheme for of recovering from transient processor errors in a shared-memory multiprocessor with private caches is presented. New implementation techniques that use checkpoint identifiers and recovery stacks to reduce performance degradation in processor utilization during normal execution are examined. This cache-based checkpointing technique prevents rollback propagation, provides for rapid recovery, and can be integrated into standard cache coherence protocols. An analytical model is used to estimate the relative performance of the scheme during normal execution. Extensions that take error latency into account are presented.

Wu, Kun-Lung↗

Neural Network and Regression Methods Demonstrated in the Design Optimization of a Subsonic Aircraft

The neural network and regression methods of NASA Glenn Research Center s COMETBOARDS design optimization testbed were used to generate approximate analysis and design models for a subsonic aircraft operating at Mach 0.85 cruise speed. The analytical model is defined by nine design variables: wing aspect ratio, engine thrust, wing area, sweep angle, chord-thickness ratio, turbine temperature, pressure ratio, bypass ratio, fan pressure; and eight response parameters: weight, landing velocity, takeoff and landing field lengths, approach thrust, overall efficiency, and compressor pressure and temperature. The variables were adjusted to optimally balance the engines to the airframe. The solution strategy included a sensitivity model and the soft analysis model. Researchers generated the sensitivity model by training the approximators to predict an optimum design. The trained neural network predicted all response variables, within 5-percent error. This was reduced to 1 percent by the regression method. The soft analysis model was developed to replace aircraft analysis as the reanalyzer in design optimization. Soft models have been generated for a neural network method, a regression method, and a hybrid method obtained by combining the approximators. The performance of the models is graphed for aircraft weight versus thrust as well as for wing area and turbine temperature. The regression method followed the analytical solution with little error. The neural network exhibited 5-percent maximum error over all parameters. Performance of the hybrid method was intermediate in comparison to the individual approximators. Error in the response variable is smaller than that shown in the figure because of a distortion scale factor. The overall performance of the approximators was considered to be satisfactory because aircraft analysis with NASA Langley Research Center s FLOPS (Flight Optimization System) code is a synthesis of diverse disciplines: weight estimation, aerodynamic analysis, engine cycle analysis, propulsion data interpolation, mission performance, airfield length for landing and takeoff, noise footprint, and others.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗

Effect of Correlated Precision Errors on Uncertainty of a Subsonic Venturi Calibration

An uncertainty analysis performed in conjunction with the calibration of a subsonic venturi for use in a turbine test facility produced some unanticipated results that may have a significant impact in a variety of test situations. Precision uncertainty estimates using the preferred propagation techniques in the applicable American National Standards Institute/American Society of Mechanical Engineers standards were an order of magnitude larger than precision uncertainty estimates calculated directly from a sample of results (discharge coefficient) obtained at the same experimental set point. The differences were attributable to the effect of correlated precision errors, which previously have been considered negligible. An analysis explaining this phenomenon is presented. The article is not meant to document the venturi calibration, but rather to give a real example of results where correlated precision terms are important. The significance of the correlated precision terms could apply to many test situations.

Hudson, S. T.↗

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Streamlining Ocean Dynamics Modeling with Fourier Neural Operators: A Multiobjective Hyperparameter and Architecture Optimization Approach

Training an effective deep learning model to learn ocean processes involves careful choices of various hyperparameters. We leverage DeepHyper’s advanced search algorithms for multiobjective optimization, streamlining the development of neural networks tailored for ocean modeling. The focus is on optimizing Fourier neural operators (FNOs), a data-driven model capable of simulating complex ocean behaviors. Selecting the correct model and tuning the hyperparameters are challenging tasks, requiring much effort to ensure model accuracy. DeepHyper allows efficient exploration of hyperparameters associated with data preprocessing, FNO architecture-related hyperparameters, and various model training strategies. We aim to obtain an optimal set of hyperparameters leading to the most performant model. Moreover, on top of the commonly used mean squared error for model training, we propose adopting the negative anomaly correlation coefficient as the additional loss term to improve model performance and investigate the potential trade-off between the two terms. The numerical experiments show that the optimal set of hyperparameters enhanced model performance in single timestepping forecasting and greatly exceeded the baseline configuration in the autoregressive rollout for long-horizon forecasting up to 30 days. Utilizing DeepHyper, we demonstrate an approach to enhance the use of FNO in ocean dynamics forecasting, offering a scalable solution with improved precision.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Initial test results on state estimation on the SCOLE mast

Modal state estimation tests are performed on the SCOLE mast for the fixed Shuttle platform case. Kalman filter state estimation results from a five mode computer model of the SCOLE mast, developed from a finite element analysis, are compared with those state estimates obtained from laboratory tests. Two comparison runs are presented, one an excitation of the first two bending modes, another, an excitation of the first torsional mode of the mast. Results from both runs show poor agreement in modal estimation between the computer model simulations and the laboratory test data. At present, the reason(s) for this poor performance is unknown. Both the laboratory hardware and software and the computer model are being checked for possible sources of errors. Further computer simulations as well as laboratory testing will be performed.

Sparks, D., Jr.↗

Investigation of cosmic ray impact on transmon qubits with different materials through fast decay detection at Fermilab’s SQMS laboratory

Noise sources affecting superconducting qubits, such as cosmic rays and ambient gamma radiation, have garnered attention for their potential impact. These radiations deposit energy in the qubit's substrate, generating high-energy phonons that break Cooper pairs, leading to the formation of quasi-particles. When these quasi-particles tunnel across Josephson junctions, they induce qubit de-excitation, causing relaxation errors. In this study, we employ a fast feedback mechanism for performing qubit reset to detect decay events with high time resolution. This capability along with frequency multiplexed readout allows us to explore error correlations across time and space. Transmon qubits, manufactured within the Superconducting Quantum Materials and Systems (SQMS) center [1], are investigated at the above-ground lab. We study the impact of cosmic rays on qubits with different encapsulations, geometries, and locations on the same or different chips. We present preliminary findings and discuss the implications for the performance of contemporary quantum hardware.

Roy, Tanay↗

Numerical modeling based machine learning approach for the optimization of falling - film evaporator in thermal desalination application

Scale formation that drastically increases thermal resistance and reduces freshwater production remains a critical challenge in thermal desalination. Novel designs of falling film evaporator and optimal operating condition hold great promise to mitigate scale formation, and increase heat transfer performance and fresh water production. In this work, CFD simulation based machine learning and multi-objective optimization are performed to identify optimal conditions and tube arrangement for evaporator. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm is adopted to determine and analyze the optimal pareto front for multiple objectives in desalination criteria. The errors of training, validation, and testing set are computed to identify an optimal hyperparameter set. For performance ratio, fouling resistance, and water production rate, the average relative error is 2.26%, 3.67%, and 3.24%. At pareto front, both performance ratio and water production rate increase at high temperature with fouling resistance (thermal resistance of the fouling layer) increasing as well. Tradeoffs between mitigating scale formation and enhancing desalination performance are evaluated in optimizations for different objectives. Finally, potential optima are identified and can be applied as guidelines to determine evaporator design and system operating conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The physics of the environmental sensitivity of rubidium gas cell atomic frequency standards

Environmental sensitivity is often the most significant limitation to the practical stability of rubidium frequency standards (RFS). For example, temperature sensitivity can cause a rapid frequency change of several parts in 10(exp 10) for a tactical RFS that has an aging of only 1 times 10(exp -11)/month. Other important environmental factors are barometric pressure, vibration, magnetic field, and nuclear radiation. The physical mechanisms that lie behind these environmental sensitivities are considered. These physical mechanisms are related to the performance of actual rubidium frequency standards. For the user of these devices, a better knowledge of the causes for Rb clock instability will aid in their testing and proper application. For the time frequency specialist, a review of these factors may prove useful toward improving RFS design. Some of the RFS environmental sensitivities are due to simple physical mechanisms like the effect of dc magnetic field on the Rb hyperfine resonance frequency. For these, an analysis can be based on physical principles and straightforward design factors. Other environment factors, like temperature sensitivity, are more complex combinations of many effects, both physical and practical, and the analysis often takes the form of an error budget with large unit-to-unit variations. Today's rubidium frequency standards span a wide performance range from small, inexpensive units with pp 10(exp 10) error budgets to larger, higher performance versions offering pp 10(exp 10) stabilities. For both extremes, however, environmental sensitivity can be the most significant performance limitation. Why this is the case and how to make improvements are discussed.

Riley, William J.↗

Machine Learning Screening of Metal-Ion Battery Electrode Materials

Here, in this work we present deep neural network regression machine learning models (ML) for predicting the average voltage and the percentage change in volume of battery electrodes upon charging and discharging with metal ions. Our models exhibit good performance as measured by the average mean absolute error obtained from a 10-fold cross-validation as well as on independent test sets. We further assess the robustness our ML models by investigating their screening potential beyond the training database. We produce novel Na-ion electrodes by systematically replacing Li-ions in the original database by Na-ions, and then selecting a set of 22 electrodes that exhibit a good performance in energy density as well as small volume variations upon charging and discharging, as predicted by the machine learning model. The ML predictions for these new materials are then compared to quantum-mechanics based calculations. Our results reaffirm the significant role of machine learning techniques in the exploration of materials for battery applications.

,electrode volume change↗

Stable Machine‐Learning Parameterization of Subgrid Processes in a Comprehensive Atmospheric Model Learned From Embedded Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Modern climate projections often suffer from inadequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational limitations, resulting in inaccurate representations of sub-grid processes. A promising technique to address this is the multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which embeds a kilometer-resolution cloud-resolving model (CRM) within each atmospheric column of a host climate model to replace traditional convection and cloud parameterizations. Machine learning offers a unique opportunity to make MMF more accessible by emulating the embedded CRM and reducing its substantial computational cost. Although many studies have demonstrated proof-of-concept success of achieving stable hybrid simulations, it remains a challenge to achieve near operational-level success with real geography and comprehensive variable emulation that includes, for example, explicit cloud condensate coupling. In this study, we present a stable hybrid model capable of integrating for at least 5 years with near operational-level complexity, including coarse-grid geography, seasonality, explicit cloud condensate and wind predictions, and land coupling. Our model demonstrates skillful online performance, achieving a 5-year zonal mean tropospheric temperature bias within 2 K, water vapor bias within 1 g/kg, and a precipitation root mean square error of 0.96 mm/day. Key factors contributing to our online performance include an expressive U-Net architecture and physical thermodynamic constraints for microphysics. With microphysical constraints mitigating unrealistic cloud formation, our work is the first to demonstrate realistic multi-year cloud condensate climatology under the MMF framework. Despite these advances, online diagnostics reveal persistent biases in certain regions, highlighting the need for innovative strategies to further optimize online performance.

Hu, Zeyuan [NVIDIA Corporation, Santa Clara, CA (U↗

Fabrication-robust silicon photonic devices in standard sub-micron silicon-on-insulator processes

Perturbations to the effective refractive index from nanometer-scale fabrication variations in waveguide geometry plague high index-contrast photonic platforms; this includes the ubiquitous sub-micron silicon-on-insulator (SOI) process. Such variations are particularly troublesome for phase-sensitive devices, such as interferometers and resonators, which exhibit drastic changes in performance as a result of these fabrication-induced phase errors. In this Letter, we propose and experimentally demonstrate a design methodology for dramatically reducing device sensitivity to silicon width variations. We apply this methodology to a highly phase-sensitive device, the ring-assisted Mach–Zehnder interferometer (RAMZI), and show comparable performance and footprint to state-of-the-art devices, while substantially reducing stochastic phase errors from etch variations. This decrease in sensitivity is directly realized as energy savings by significantly reducing the required corrective thermal tuning power, providing a promising path toward ultra-energy-efficient large-scale silicon photonic circuits.

Rizzo, Anthony (ORCID:000000034752797X)↗

Automation Bias: Decision Making and Performance in High-Tech Cockpits

Automated aids and decision support tools are rapidly becoming indispensible tools in high-technology cockpits, and are assuming increasing control of "cognitive" flight tasks, such as calculating fuel-efficient routes, navigating, or detecting and diagnosing system malfunctions and abnormalities. This study was designed to investigate "automation bias," a recently documented factor in the use of automated aids and decision support systems. The term refers to omission and commission errors resulting from the use of automated cues as a heuristic replacement for vigilant information seeking and processing. Glass-cockpit pilots flew flight scenarios involving automation "events," or opportunities for automation-related omission and commission errors. Pilots who perceived themselves as "accountable" for their performance and strategies of interaction with the automation were more likely to double-check automated functioning against other cues, and less likely to commit errors. Pilots were also likely to erroneously "remember" the presence of expected cues when describing their decision-making processes.

Mosier, Kathleen L.↗

Measurements and Model Improvement: Insight into NWP Model Error Using Doppler Lidar and Other WFIP2 Measurement Systems

Abstract Doppler-lidar wind-profile measurements at three sites were used to evaluate NWP model errors from two versions of NOAA’s 3-km-grid HRRR model, to see whether updates in the latest version 4 reduced errors when compared against the original version 1. Nested (750-m grid) versions of each were also tested to see how grid spacing affected forecast skill. The measurements were part of the field phase of the Second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2), an 18-month deployment into central Oregon–Washington, a major wind-energy-producing region. This study focuses on errors in simulating marine intrusions, a summertime, 600–800-m-deep, regional sea-breeze flow found to generate large errors. HRRR errors proved to be complex and site dependent. The most prominent error resulted from a premature drop in modeled marine-intrusion wind speeds after local midnight, when lidar-measured winds of greater than 8 m s −1 persisted through the next morning. These large negative errors were offset at low levels by positive errors due to excessive mixing, complicating the interpretation of model “improvement,” such that the updates to the full-scale versions produced mixed results, sometimes enhancing but sometimes degrading model skill. Nesting consistently improved model performance, with version 1’s nest producing the smallest errors overall. HRRR’s ability to represent the stages of sea-breeze forcing was evaluated using radiation budget, surface-energy balance, and near-surface temperature measurements available during WFIP2. The significant site-to-site differences in model error and the complex nature of these errors mean that field-measurement campaigns having dense arrays of profiling sensors are necessary to properly diagnose and characterize model errors, as part of a systematic approach to NWP model improvement. Significance Statement Dramatic increases in NWP model skill will be required over the coming decades. This paper describes the role of major deployments of accurate profiling sensors in achieving that goal and presents an example from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Program (WFIP2). Wind-profile data from scanning Doppler lidars were used to evaluate two versions of HRRR, the original and an updated version, and nested versions of each. This study focuses on the ability of updated HRRR versions to improve upon predicting a regional sea-breeze flow, which was found to generate large errors by the original HRRR. Updates to the full-scale HRRR versions produced mixed results, but the finer-mesh versions consistently reduced model errors.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗