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Simulations Supporting the Development of Northstar's Indirect Beam Parameters Monitoring System

NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes, LLC is planning to produce the important medical radioisotope molybdenum-99 (Mo-99), the parent of technetium-99m (Tc-99m), through photonuclear reactions in molybdenum-100 (Mo-100). In this approach, a target comprising multiple thin disks of enriched molybdenum metal is bombarded with a 40-MeV electron beam. Electrons impinged on the molybdenum target produce bremsstrahlung X-rays that cause the nuclear reaction. Because enriched Mo-100 is expensive, there is a desire to utilize as much beam power as possible to achieve maximum production yield and minimize the size of the target. This requirement leads to very high beam power density (and heat deposition in the target), which creates challenging requirements for the cooling of the target. The critical part of the target is the target window. It separates the high-pressure helium cooled target from the vacuum beamline and the subject of structural and thermal stress. The temperature of the target window is proportional to the energy density deposited by the beam, so it is critical to maintain the desired beam profile on the target window. The feasibility of indirectly monitoring the maximum energy density of the beam on the beam window through beam losses at the main collimator (Collimator) before the production target was verified. A model of the NorthStar beam transport line was constructed for this purpose using MAD-X and Tao/Bmad codes. Beam optics were computed for the standard operational scenario, followed by an investigation involving approximately 400 cases with parameter variations in the last tuning quadrupoles. This was done to assess the correlation between losses in the collimator and the peak energy density on the target. We developed a model to explore the potential application of Optical transition radiation (OTR) for controlling beam parameters in the NorthStar beam delivery system. This model was based on a generic formula derived from the fundamental solution of the inhomogeneous wave equation of the vector potential, and allowed us to consider various surfaces, even those with irregular or random features, using numerical integration. We applied the model to OTR generated by relativistic electrons impacting an Inconel® 718 beam window. We examined cases with different levels of the window’s surface roughness, ranging from 0.5 to 3.0 microns of root square mean (RMS) deviation. The results of the OTR simulations provided distributions of OTR photons that can be used to study the limitations of optical systems for controlling beam parameters.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Retrieval Assimilation and Modeling of Atmospheric Water Vapor from Ground- and Space-Based GPS Networks: Investigation of the Global and Regional Hydrological Cycles

Uncertainty over the response of the atmospheric hydrological cycle (particularly the distribution of water vapor and cloudiness) to anthropogenic forcing is a primary source of doubt in current estimates of global climate sensitivity, which raises severe difficulties in evaluating its likely societal impact. Fortunately, a variety of advanced techniques and sensors are beginning to shed new light on the atmospheric hydrological cycle. One of the most promising makes use of the sensitivity of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to the thermodynamic state, and in particular the water vapor content, of the atmosphere through which the radio signals propagate. Our strategy to derive the maximum benefit for hydrological studies from the rapidly increasing GPS data stream will proceed in three stages: (1) systematically analyze and archive quality-controlled retrievals using state-of-the-art techniques; (2) employ both currently available and innovative assimilation procedures to incorporate these determinations into advanced regional and global atmospheric models and assess their effects; and (3) apply the results to investigate selected scientific issues of relevance to regional and global hydrological studies. An archive of GPS-based estimation of total zenith delay (TZD) data and water vapor where applicable has been established with expanded automated quality control. The accuracy of the GPS estimates is being monitored; the investigation of systematic errors is ongoing using comparisons with water vapor radiometers. Meteorological packages have been implemented. The accuracy and utilization of the TZD estimates has been improved by implementing a troposphere gradient model. GPS-based gradients have been validated as real atmospheric moisture gradients, establishing a link between the estimated gradients and the passage of weather fronts. We have developed a generalized ray tracing inversion scheme that can be used to analyze occultation data acquired from space- or land-based receivers. The National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (version MM5) has been adapted for Southern California, and assimilation studies are underway. Additional information is contained in the original.

Dickey, Jean O.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, March 2007

Topics include: Advanced Systems for Monitoring Underwater Sounds; Wireless Data-Acquisition System for Testing Rocket Engines; Processing Raw HST Data With Up-to-Date Calibration Data; Mobile Collection and Automated Interpretation of EEG Data; System for Secure Integration of Aviation Data; Servomotor and Controller Having Large Dynamic Range; Digital Multicasting of Multiple Audio Streams; Translator for Optimizing Fluid-Handling Components; AIRSAR Web-Based Data Processing; Pattern Matcher for Trees Constructed From Lists; Reducing a Knowledge-Base Search Space When Data Are Missing; Ground-Based Correction of Remote-Sensing Spectral Imagery; State-Chart Autocoder; Pointing History Engine for the Spitzer Space Telescope; Low-Friction, High-Stiffness Joint for Uniaxial Load Cell; Magnet-Based System for Docking of Miniature Spacecraft; Electromechanically Actuated Valve for Controlling Flow Rate; Plumbing Fixture for a Microfluidic Cartridge; Camera Mount for a Head-Up Display; Core-Cutoff Tool; Recirculation of Laser Power in an Atomic Fountain; Simplified Generation of High-Angular-Momentum Light Beams; Imaging Spectrometer on a Chip; Interferometric Quantum-Nondemolition Single-Photon Detectors; Ring-Down Spectroscopy for Characterizing a CW Raman Laser; Complex Type-II Interband Cascade MQW Photodetectors; Single-Point Access to Data Distributed on Many Processors; Estimating Dust and Water Ice Content of the Martian Atmosphere From THEMIS Data; Computing a Stability Spectrum by Use of the HHT; Theoretical Studies of Routes to Synthesis of Tetrahedral N4; Estimation Filter for Alignment of the Spitzer Space Telescope; Antenna for Measuring Electric Fields Within the Inner Heliosphere; Improved High-Voltage Gas Isolator for Ion Thruster; and Hybrid Mobile Communication Networks for Planetary Exploration.

Source record↗

The Next Landsat Satellite: The Landsat Data Continuity Mission

The Landsat program is one of the longest running satellite programs for Earth observations from space. The program was initiated by the launch of Landsat 1 in 1972. Since then a series of six more Landsat satellites were launched and at least one of those satellites has been in operations at all times to continuously collect images of the global land surface. The Department of Interior (DOI) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) preserves data collected by all of the Landsat satellites at their Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. This 40-year data archive provides an unmatched record of the Earth's land surface that has undergone dramatic changes in recent decades due to the increasing pressure of a growing population and advancing technologies. EROS provides the ability for anyone to search the archive and order digital Landsat images over the internet for free. The Landsat data are a public resource for observing, characterizing, monitoring, trending, and predicting land use change over time providing an invaluable tool for those addressing the profound consequences of those changes to society. The most recent launch of a Landsat satellite occurred in 1999 when Landsat 7 was placed in orbit. While Landsat 7 remains in operation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the DOI/ USGS are building its successor satellite system currently called the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM). NASA has the lead for building and launching the satellite that will carry two Earth-viewing instruments, the Operational Land Imager (OLI) and the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS). The OLI will take images that measure the amount of sunlight reflected by the land surface at nine wavelengths of light with three of those wavelengths beyond the range of human vision. T1RS will collect coincident images that measure light emitted by the land surface as a function of surface temperature at two longer wavelengths well beyond the range of human vision. The DOI/USGS is developing the ground system that will command and control the LDCM satellite in orbit and manage the OLI and TIRS data transmitted by the satellite. DOI/USGS will thus operate the satellite and collect, archive, and distribute the image data as part of the EROS archive. DOI/USGS has committed to renaming LDCM as Landsat 8 following launch. By either name the satellite and its sensors will extend the 40-year archive with images sufficiently consistent with data from earlier Landsat satellites to allow multi-decadal, broad-area studies of our dynamic landscapes. The next Landsat satellite and ground system are on schedule for a January, 2013 launch.

Rons, James R.↗

Improving the Fire Weather Index System for Peatlands Using Peat-Specific Hydrological Input Data

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, even though originally developed and calibrated for an upland Jack pine forest, is used globally to estimate fire danger for any fire environment. However, for some environments, such as peatlands, the applicability of the FWI in its current form, is often questioned. In this study, we replaced the original moisture codes of the FWI with hydrological estimates resulting from the assimilation of satellite-based L-band passive microwave observations into a peatland-specific land surface model. In a conservative approach that maintains the integrity of the original FWI structure, the distributions of the hydrological estimates were first matched to those of the corresponding original moisture codes before replacement. The resulting adapted FWI, hereafter called FWIpeat, was evaluated using satellite-based information on fire presence over boreal peatlands from 2010 through 2018. Adapting the FWI with model- and satellite-based hydrological information was found to be beneficial in estimating fire danger, especially when replacing the deeper moisture codes of the FWI. For late-season fires, further adaptations of the fine fuel moisture code show even more improvement due to the fact that late-season fires are more hydrologically driven. The proposed FWIpeat should enable improved monitoring of fire risk in boreal peatlands.

Canadian Fire Weather Index↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

Cyber-physical cascading failure and resilience of power grid: A comprehensive review

Smart grid technologies are based on the integration of the cyber network and the power grid into a cyber-physical power system (CPPS). The increasing cyber-physical interdependencies bring about tremendous opportunities for the modeling, monitoring, control, and protection of power grids, but also create new types of vulnerabilities and failure mechanisms threatening the reliability and resiliency of system operation. A major concern regarding the interdependent networks is the cascading failure (CF), where a small initial disturbance/failure in the network results in a seemingly unexpected large-scale failure. Although there has been a significant volume of recent work in the CF research of CPPS, a comprehensive review remains unavailable. This article aims to fill the gap by providing a systematic literature survey regarding the modeling, analysis, and mitigation of CF in CPPS. The open research questions for further research are also discussed. This article allows researchers to easily understand the state of the art of CF research in CPPS and fosters future work required towards full resolutions to the remaining questions and challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The 1985 Biomass Burning Season in South America: Satellite Remote Sensing of Fires, Smoke, and Regional Radiative Energy Budgets

Using satellite imagery, more than five million square kilometers of the forest and cerrado regions over South America are extensively studied to monitor fires and smoke during the 1985 biomass burning season. The results are characterized for four major ecosystems, namely: (1) tropical rain forest, (2) tropical broadleaf seasonal, (3) savannah/grass and seasonal woods (SGW), and (4) mild/warm/hot grass/shrub (MGS). The spatial and temporal distribution of fires are examined from two different methods using the multispectral Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Local Area Coverage data. Using collocated measurements from the instantaneous scanner Earth Radiation Budget Experiment data, the direct regional radiative forcing of biomass burning aerosols is computed. The results show that more than 70% of the fires occur in the MGS and SGW ecosystems due to agricultural practices. The smoke generated from biomass burning has negative instantaneous net radiative forcing values for all four major ecosystems within South America. The smoke found directly over the fires has mean net radiative forcing values ranging from -25.6 to -33.9 W m(exp -2). These results confirm that the regional net radiative impact of biomass burning is one of cooling. The spectral and broadband properties for clear-sky and smoke regions are also presented that could be used as input and/or validation for other studies attempting to model the impact of aerosols on the earth-atmosphere system. These results have important applications for future instruments from the Earth Observing System (EOS) program. Specifically, the combination of the Visible Infrared Scanner and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the combination of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and CERES instruments from the EOS morning crossing mission could provide reliable estimates of the direct radiative forcing of aerosols on a global scale, thereby reducing the uncertainties in current global aerosol radiative forcing values.

Christopher, Sundar A.↗

Energy Management Information Systems Cybersecurity Best Practices

Energy management information systems (EMIS) are a broad and rapidly evolving family of tools that monitor, analyze, and control building energy use and system performance. Critical systems are often integrated with or operate on the same networks as EMIS scope systems, necessitating stable, continuous, and secure communication. When connecting EMIS to building automation and utility control systems, there are also many physical assets that could cause harm to the building and its occupants if a malicious act or human error were introduced. It is imperative to ensure all EMIS scope systems are connected securely to the EMIS and do not open vulnerable pathways to other facility networks and operations. The Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) promotes best practices for impactful utilization of EMIS at federal facilities. This best practice document is part of a series of fact sheets created to help accelerate the market adoption and use of EMIS in the federal sector. It provides an overview of required EMIS cybersecurity standards for compliance and authority to operate along with additional recommendations.

cybersecurity↗

Future CH4 Budgets as Modelled By A Fully Coupled Earth System Model Using Prescribed GHG Concentrations vs. Interactive CH4 Sources and Sinks

We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios. GISS-E2.1 is one of the few ESMs that can be driven by anthropogenic CH4 emissions, as well as interactive natural sources such as wetlands, and can simulate the tropospheric CH4 chemistry. In frame of the recent short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) assessment by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), we used the GISS-E2.1 model with prescribed long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. In the present study, we have supplemented these simulations using the interactive CH4 sources and sinks in order to quantify the model performance and the sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the Eclipse V6b emission database to simulate the future chemical composition and climate impacts from 2015 to 2050. We have also simulated 1995-2014 in order to evaluate the model performance following the AMAP-SLCF protocol. The prescribed GHG version underestimates the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) surface CH4 observations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1% [-8.4%-2.0%], with a correlation (r) of 0.71 [-0.41 0.99]. The largest underestimations are over the continental emission regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia, while biases are smallest over oceans. On the other hand, the simulation with interactive sources and sinks underestimates the GAW observations more than the prescribed simulation, by 18.5% [-25% -10.4%], with a lower r of 0.36 [-0.82 0.93]. Opposite to the prescribed simulation, the biases are largest over oceans and smaller over the continents, however they are still larger over land than the prescribed simulation. The interactive simulation, with large sources virtually over land and strong sink over oceans, has a land/ocean ratio larger than 1 while the prescribed simulation has this ratio equal to 1 as it distributes the global prescribed CH4 concentration equally in longitude over a given latitude. This clearly shows that the interactive sources and sinks should be represented in models in order to realistically simulate the chemical composition and the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. As expected, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In the CLE scenario, increases are largest over the equatorial belt, in particular over India and East China, while the MFR scenario shows increases over the whole Southern Hemisphere, however much smaller compared to CLE. Finally, the interactive simulation shows that the chemical CH4 sink increases in the CLE scenario, while it slightly decreases in the MFR, leading to a larger CH4 lifetime in the MFR scenario compared to in the CLE scenario.

CH4↗

Toward Statistical Real-Time Power Fault Detection

We propose statistical fault detection methodology based on high-frequency data streams that are becoming available in modern power grids. Our approach can be treated as an online (sequential) change point monitoring methodology. However, due to the mostly unexplored and very nonstandard structure of high-frequency power grid streaming data, substantial new statistical development is required to make this methodology practically applicable. The paper includes development of scalar detectors based on multichannel data streams, determination of data-driven alarm thresholds and investigation of the performance and robustness of the new tools. Due to a reasonably large database of faults, we can calculate frequencies of false and correct fault signals, and recommend implementations that optimize these empirical success rates.

bolted faults↗

Wideband Interferometric Sensing and Imaging Polarimetry

Wideband Interferometric Sensing and Imaging Polarimetry (WISIP) has become an important, indispensible tool in wide area military surveillance and global environmental monitoring of the terrestrial and planetary covers. It enables dynamic, real time optimal feature extraction of significant characteristics of desirable targets and/or target sections with simultaneous suppression of undesirable background clutter and propagation path speckle at hitherto unknown clarity and never before achieved quality. WISIP may be adopted to the detection, recognition, and identification (DRI) of any stationary, moving or vibrating targets or distributed scatterer segments versus arbitrary stationary, dynamical changing and/or moving geo-physical/ecological environments, provided the instantaneous 2x2 phasor and 4x4 power density matrices for forward propagation/backward scattering, respectively, can be measured with sufficient accuracy. For example, the DRI of stealthy, dynamically moving inhomogeneous volumetric scatter environments such as precipitation scatter, the ocean/sea/lake surface boundary layers, the littoral coastal surf zones, pack ice and snow or vegetative canopies, dry sands and soils, etc. can now be successfully realized. A comprehensive overview is presented on how these modern high resolution/precision, complete polarimetric co-registered signature sensing and imaging techniques, complemented by full integration of novel navigational electronic tools, such as DGPS, will advance electromagnetic vector wave sensing and imaging towards the limits of physical realization. Various examples utilizing the most recent image data take sets of airborne, space shuttle, and satellite imaging systems demonstrate the utility of WISIP.

Verdi, James Salvatore↗

An Integrated Hydrological and Water Management Study of the Entire Nile River System - Lake Victoria to Nile Delta

The Nile basin River system spans 3 million km(exp 2) distributed over ten nations. The eight upstream riparian nations, Ethiopia, Eretria, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Tanzania and Kenya are the source of approximately 86% of the water inputs to the Nile, while the two downstream riparian countries Sudan and Egypt, presently rely on the river's flow for most of the their needs. Both climate and agriculture contribute to the complicated nature of Nile River management: precipitation in the headwaters regions of Ethiopia and Lake Victoria is variable on a seasonal and inter-annual basis, while demand for irrigation water in the arid downstream region is consistently high. The Nile is, perhaps, one of the most difficult trans-boundary water issue in the world, and this study would be the first initiative to combine NASA satellite observations with the hydrologic models study the overall water balance in a to comprehensive manner. The cornerstone application of NASA's Earth Science Research Results under this project are the NASA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) and the USDA Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model. These two complementary research results are methodologically independent methods for using NASA observations to support water resource analysis in data poor regions. Where an LDAS uses multiple sources of satellite data to inform prognostic simulations of hydrological process, ALEXI diagnoses evapotranspiration and water stress on the basis of thermal infrared satellite imagery. Specifically, this work integrates NASA Land Data Assimilation systems into the water management decision support systems that member countries of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD, located in Nairobi, Kenya) use in water resource analysis, agricultural planning, and acute drought response to support sustainable development of Nile Basin water resources. The project is motivated by the recognition that accurate, frequent, and spatially distributed estimates of the water balance are necessary for effective water management. This creates a challenge for watersheds that are large, include data poor regions, and/or span multiple nations. All of these descriptors apply to the Nile River basin, yet successful management of the Nile is critical for development and political stability in the region. For this reason, improved hydrological data to support cooperative water management in the Nile basin is a priority for USAID, the US State Department, the World Bank and other international organizations. In this project, the U.S. based research team is working with partners at RCMRD, Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), and their member national-level agencies to develop satellite-based land cover maps, satellite-derived evapotranspiration estimates (using the ALEXI algorithm), and NASA's Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) customized to match identified information needs. The cornerstone applied sciences product of the project is the development of a customized "Nile LDAS" that will produce optimal estimates of hydrological states and fluxes, as vetted against the in situ observations of NBI and RCMRD member organizations and independent satellite-derived hydrological estimates. Nile LDAS will be applied to improve the reliability of emerging Decision Support Systems in applications that include drought monitoring, reservoir management, and irrigation planning. The end-users such as RCMRD, NBI, Ethiopian and Kenya Meteorological and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) will be the eventual benefactors of this work. There will be a capacity building process involving the above end-user organizations and transfer the models and the results for these organizations to execute for future use. The team has already initiated this study and the early results of first years' work are shown. The plan is to complete this work by late 2013.

Habib, Shahid↗

2.2.5.401 - Ocean Observing Prize

The Powering the Blue Economy: Ocean Observing Prize is a $2.4M contest that challenges innovators to develop solutions that integrate marine renewable energy with ocean observation platforms to revolutionize our ability to monitor, manage, and understand the ocean. Competitors are challenged to design, build, and test novel, wave-powered, self-charging autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) systems that could be suitable for a 6-month deployment in the Atlantic Ocean to monitor hurricane formation. Through engagement with the end user ocean observing community, the team identified challenges in a lack of data on storm intensity, endangering coastal communities. This challenge could be addressed by collecting data before, during, and after a hurricane develops and strengthens at sea. Amassing this data, however, requires an ocean observing system that can be deployed at sea for long periods, waiting for approaching storms. To help solve this problem, competitors are working to integrate wave energy capture with AUV systems to collect this data, helping to better protect coastal communities from oncoming storms. Solutions developed through this prize aim to enable long-term collection of data before, during, and after a hurricane that will help better forecast storm intensity. The prize mechanism provides an environment to accelerate technology development for innovators and helps to improve awareness of marine energy and its ability to provide power to blue economy applications.

coastal communities↗

How emissions uncertainty influences the distribution and radiative impacts of smoke from fires in North America

Fires and the aerosols that they emit impact air quality, health, and climate, but the abundance and properties of carbonaceous aerosol (both black carbon and organic carbon) from biomass burning (BB) remain uncertain and poorly constrained. We aim to explore the uncertainties associated with fire emissions and their air quality and radiative impacts from underlying dry matter consumed and emissions factors. To investigate this, we compare model simulations from a global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, driven by a variety of fire emission inventories with surface and airborne observations of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD). We focus on two fire-detection-based and/or burned-area-based (FD-BA) inventories using burned area and active fire counts, respectively, i.e., the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4s) with small fires and the Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.5 (FINN1.5), and two fire radiative power (FRP)-based approaches, i.e., the Quick Fire Emission Dataset version 2.4 (QFED2.4) and the Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2 (GFAS1.2). We show that, across the inventories, emissions of BB aerosol (BBA) differ by a factor of 4 to 7 over North America and that dry matter differences, not emissions factors, drive this spread. We find that simulations driven by QFED2.4 generally overestimate BC and, to a lesser extent, OA concentrations observations from two fire-influenced aircraft campaigns in North America (ARCTAS and DC3) and from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, while simulations driven by FINN1.5 substantially underestimate concentrations. The GFED4s and GFAS1.2-driven simulations provide the best agreement with OA and BC mass concentrations at the surface (IMPROVE), BC observed aloft (DC3 and ARCTAS), and AOD observed by MODIS over North America. We also show that a sensitivity simulation including an enhanced source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from fires, based on the NOAA Fire Lab 2016 experiments, produces substantial additional OA; however, the spread in the primary emissions estimates implies that this magnitude of SOA can be neither confirmed nor ruled out when comparing the simulations against the observations explored here. Given the substantial uncertainty in fire emissions, as represented by these four emission inventories, we find a sizeable range in 2012 annual BBA PM2.5 population-weighted exposure over Canada and the contiguous US (0.5 to 1.6 µg/cu. m). We also show that the range in the estimated global direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosol from fires (−0.11 to −0.048 W/sq. m) is large and comparable to the direct radiative forcing of OA (−0.09 W/sq. m) estimated in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our analysis suggests that fire emissions uncertainty challenges our ability to accurately characterize the impact of smoke on air quality and climate.

North America↗

Event Screening Methods for the Eastern Interconnection Situational Awareness and Monitoring System (ESAMS)

The Eastern Interconnection Situational Awareness and Monitoring System (ESAMS) is a tool developed to explore the applications and advantages of sharing phasor measurement unit (PMU) data among operating entities. An initial conclusion from testing was that detected events required further screening before being reported to ensure that events would be of interest to system operators. The methods described in this report were integrated into ESAMS to meet this need. First, an event is screened for whether the change in voltage angle measurements indicates that the detected disturbance is sufficiently large. Next, an event is classified to determine if it was related to a loss of generation. Finally, a neural network is used to determine if the system’s response to the disturbance is normal or abnormal. These methods were tested with one month of field-measured PMU data. Results indicate that the additional information provided by these additional screening tools will improve selection of events for inclusion in the daily event reports automatically generated by ESAMS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Real-time steerable frequency-stepped Doppler backscattering (DBS) system for local helicon wave electric field measurements on the DIII-D tokamak

A new frequency-stepped Doppler backscattering (DBS) system has been integrated into a real-time steerable electron cyclotron heating launcher system to simultaneously probe local background turbulence (f < 10 MHz) and high-frequency (20–550 MHz) density fluctuations in the DIII-D tokamak. The launcher allows for 2D steering (horizontally and vertically) over wide angular ranges to optimize probe location and wavenumber response. The vertical steering can be optimized during a discharge in real time. The new DBS system employs a programmable frequency synthesizer with adjustable dwell time as a source to launch either O or X-mode polarized millimeter waves. This system can step in real-time over the entire E-band frequency range (60–90 GHz). This combination of capabilities allows for the diagnosis of the complex internal spatial structure of high power (>200 kW) helicon waves (476 MHz) injected from an external antenna during helicon current drive experiments in DIII-D. Broadband density fluctuations around the helicon frequency are observed during real-time scans of measurement location and wavenumber during these experiments. Analysis indicates that these broadband high-frequency fluctuations are a result of backscattering of the DBS millimeter-wave probe beam from plasma turbulence modulated by the helicon wave. It is observed that background turbulence is effectively locally “tagged” with the helicon wave electric field, forming images of the turbulent spectrum in the overall density fluctuation spectrum that appear as high-frequency sidebands of the turbulence. These observations of background turbulence and high-frequency fluctuations open up the possibility of monitoring local helicon wave amplitude by comparing the high-frequency signal amplitude to the simultaneously measured background turbulence. In combination with the real-time measurement location and wavenumber scanning capabilities (offered by real-time frequency-stepping and steering), this allows rapid determination of the spatial distribution of the helicon wave power during steady-state plasma operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multi-parameter distributed fiber optic sensing using double-Brillouin peak fiber in Brillouin optical time domain analysis

In this paper, we demonstrate a multi-parameter fiber sensing system based on stimulated Brillouin scattering in a double-Brillouin peak specialty fiber with enhanced Brillouin gain response. The amplitude level of the second Brillouin gain peak, which originated from the higher-order acoustic modes, has been improved with an approximately similar amplitude level to the first Brillouin gain peak from the fundamental acoustic mode. Compared to other multi-Brillouin peak fibers presented in the literature, the proposed fiber significantly reduces the measured Brillouin frequency shift error, thus improving strain and temperature accuracies. By utilizing the sensitivity values of the strain and temperature associated with each Brillouin gain spectrum (BGS) peak, a successful discriminative measurement of strain and temperature is performed with an accuracy of ±13 μɛ, and ±0.5 °C, respectively. The proposed double-Brillouin peak fiber appears to be a possible alternative to other multi-BGS peak fibers, for instance, large effective area fiber and dispersion compensating fibers, which are inherently accompanied by large measurement errors due to the weak Brillouin gain values originating from the higher-order acoustic modes. The demonstrated results show different strain and temperature coefficients of 47 kHz/µɛ, 1.15 MHz/°C for peak 1 and 51 kHz/µɛ, 1.37 MHz/°C for peak 2. Moreover, the enhanced BGS peak gains having nearly the same amplitude levels enable the discriminative measurement of strain and temperature. Such fibers in Brillouin interrogation eliminate the need for complex monitoring setups and reduce measurement errors. We recommend that for long-distance natural gas pipeline monitoring, where discriminative strain and temperature measurement is crucial, the proposed double-Brillouin peak fiber can be highly beneficial.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗