Results for “decision analysis” — Page 91

NASA NTRS2011

SPoRT's Participation in the GOES-R Proving Ground Activity

The next generation geostationary satellite, GOES-R, will carry two new instruments with unique atmospheric and surface observing capabilities, the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), to study short-term weather processes. The ABI will bring enhanced multispectral observing capabilities with frequent refresh rates for regional and full disk coverage to geostationary orbit to address many existing and new forecast challenges. The GLM will, for the first time, provide the continuous monitoring of total lightning flashes over a hemispherical region from space. NOAA established the GOES-R Proving Ground activity several years ago to demonstrate the new capabilities of these instruments and to prepare forecasters for their day one use. Proving Ground partners work closely with algorithm developers and the end user community to develop and transition proxy data sets representing GOES-R observing capabilities. This close collaboration helps to maximize refine algorithms leading to the delivery of a product that effectively address a forecast challenge. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has been a participant in the NOAA GOES-R Proving Ground activity by developing and disseminating selected GOES-R proxy products to collaborating WFOs and National Centers. Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the SPoRT program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral data from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. Participation in the Proving Ground activities extends SPoRT s activities and taps its experience and expertise in diagnostic weather analysis, short-term weather forecasting, and the transition of research and experimental data to operational decision support systems like NAWIPS, AWIPS, AWIPS2, and Google Earth. Recent SPoRT Proving Ground activities supporting the development and use of a pseudo GLM total lightning product and the transition of the AWG s Convective Initiation (CI) product, both of which were available in AWIPS and AWIPS II environments, by forecasters during the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment. SPoRT is also providing a suite of SEVIRI and MODIS RGB image products, and a high resolution composite SST product to several National Centers for use in there ongoing demonstration activities. Additionally, SPoRT has involved numerous WFOs in the evaluation of a GOES-MODIS hybrid product which brings ABI-like data sets in front of the forecaster for everyday use. An overview of this activity will be presented at the conference.

Jedlovec, Gary↗

NASA NTRS2015

Rule-Based Flight Software Cost Estimation

This paper discusses the fundamental process for the computation of Flight Software (FSW) cost estimates. This process has been incorporated in a rule-based expert system [1] that can be used for Independent Cost Estimates (ICEs), Proposals, and for the validation of Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) submissions. A high-level directed graph (referred to here as a decision graph) illustrates the steps taken in the production of these estimated costs and serves as a basis of design for the expert system described in this paper. Detailed discussions are subsequently given elaborating upon the methodology, tools, charts, and caveats related to the various nodes of the graph. We present general principles for the estimation of FSW using SEER-SEM as an illustration of these principles when appropriate. Since Source Lines of Code (SLOC) is a major cost driver, a discussion of various SLOC data sources for the preparation of the estimates is given together with an explanation of how contractor SLOC estimates compare with the SLOC estimates used by JPL. Obtaining consistency in code counting will be presented as well as factors used in reconciling SLOC estimates from different code counters. When sufficient data is obtained, a mapping into the JPL Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) from the SEER-SEM output is illustrated. For across the board FSW estimates, as was done for the NASA Discovery Mission proposal estimates performed at JPL, a comparative high-level summary sheet for all missions with the SLOC, data description, brief mission description and the most relevant SEER-SEM parameter values is given to illustrate an encapsulation of the used and calculated data involved in the estimates. The rule-based expert system described provides the user with inputs useful or sufficient to run generic cost estimation programs. This system's incarnation is achieved via the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and will be addressed at the end of this paper.

computational intelligence↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Comparison of Surface Roughness Effects on Pressure Data from SLS Wind Tunnel Test

Unsteady flows are becoming a more characterized field of study as advancements in technology is allowing for more high-speed, time-resolved data acquisition. It is important to understand these flows as the shock-wave boundary-layer interactions and separation they are involved with can generate extreme loads caused by high pressure and temperature on the body of a flight vehicle. It is vital to characterize these loads, as they can impede upon the structural integrity of a high-speed system. A common instrument utilized today to characterize pressure distributions caused by unsteady flows are unsteady pressure transducers. Set flush with the surface of a flight vehicle or wind tunnel model, these transducers can provide a pressure distribution, capturing the frequency of unsteady loads that could impinge upon the test article. A couple negative aspects of this instrumentation is that they are expensive, have long lead times, and a pressure distribution can only be determined in one discrete location where the transducer is installed. An optical diagnostic known as unsteady pressure-sensitive paint (uPSP) can help to satisfy these deficiencies. This is a spray paint that can be applied to a surface of a model to provide a global pressure distribution across the whole painted region.2 A complete picture of the fluid dynamic pressures occurring on the surface of a test article can be analyzed, especially in locations where it may have been impossible to install a transducer. Pressure-sensitive paint is also less expensive than traditional pressure transducers, which are, on average, about $2,000 each including the cost of installation.3 Unsteady PSP will not replace unsteady pressure transducers, but the transducers can be used to validate the PSP response to the flow and measure frequencies higher than the frequency response of the paint. One issue that can arise using these tools simultaneously, is that the surface roughness of the uPSP can affect the pressure readings of the transducers. Applying the uPSP to the surface of the model is going to affect the flow in some way as the topography of the model is now different than if it was not painted. One study with steady PSP conducted by Amer, Obara, and Liu at NASA Langley concluded that the PSP surface roughness was minimally intrusive at different test conditions with various lift, drag, etc., however, it was noted that data from some pressure transducers had decreased, likely due to the uneven application of the PSP in the localized region of the transducers.9 Sugioka et. al. tested various formulations of uPSP to study surface roughness effects on a Common Research Model (CRM) in transonic flow. The influence of uPSP on the surface of the model, depending on how it was formulated, was noted to have the possibility of relocating the shock wave present in the flow. This study was conducted to examine and compare transducer data acquired in December 2017 of a 4% scale model of the Space Launch System (SLS) performed at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT). One goal of the test was to demonstrate to the customer the potential of the uPSP system developed at NASA ARC. The effect of uPSP on transducer signals also became an interest in this experiment and is the reason for this data analysis. The results of this study were discussed with the SLS team to help them make decisions regarding the next test on an SLS model with the PSP and Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel teams.

pressure-sensitive paint↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Testing of In-Time Safety Assurance Technologies for UAS Operations

Ongoing research at NASA is driven by a strategic plan defined by the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate and a vision for future In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS) as described by the National Academies. In both visions, system safety awareness and provision are expanded through increased access to relevant data; integrated analysis and predictive capabilities; improved real-time detection and alerting of domain-specific hazards; decision support, and in some cases, automated risk mitigation strategies. One primary research focus is to develop means by which more timely (i.e., “in-time”) actions may be taken to mitigate precursors, anomalies, or trends that are observed during operations. In this paper, we describe such means as a collection of Services, Functions, and Capabilities (SFCs) that are supported by an underlying information system. For example, an integrated risk assessment capability is envisioned that continuously monitors safety-related metrics and margins and recommends timely operational changes. Assessment functions and/or services can be based on data analytics and predictive models derived from heterogeneous data sets that span relevant indicator metrics and their time histories. Likewise, on-board functions can identify and reduce susceptibility to precursor conditions that have led (and can lead) to aircraft loss-of-control or out-of-control accidents. This paper summarizes development and testing of such an information system tailored to hazards anticipated for future highly autonomous flight missions near and over densely populated areas. Testing is accomplished via simulation and by using small, unmanned aircraft operating over a test range at NASA’s Langley Research Center. Flight plans and test scenarios are defined to emulate several use-cases, including package delivery; reconnaissance; fire management; and urban air taxi vertiport operations. Two test phases are summarized with Phase 1 occurring in (2019-2020) and Phase 2 ongoing (2021-present). Results focus on SFC performance, technology readiness level assessment, and requirements discovery/validation. Companion papers are cited throughout for additional details on the recent testing.

safety management↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Leveraging CSPP: Building a cloud based direct broadcast processing system

Reducing the time that it takes to have useful satellite information is very important because timely access allows for more informed decision making. This is especially true in time critical situations like disaster response and financial market analysis. One way to achieve reductions in the overall time between information capture and delivery to use the direct broadcast from weather satellites. In this work, we describe a state driven satellite information system that captures a satellite’s direct broadcast signal and uses cloud-based resources to provide end-user controlled processing. The system takes advantage of the reliability and customizability of Amazon Web Services to provide fast and reliable access to a system that takes the direct broadcast signal and leverages the CSPP software as well as dynamically supplied end-user processing modules to produce a user desired information product. Finally, we describe the development process and how a flexible design allowed for changes as the capabilities of the processing platform evolved and the lessons we learned from the process.

CSPP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Space Transportation Sensitivity to Roundtrip Mission Duration and Mars Vicinity Stay Time

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate has been developing architecture concepts for human missions to Mars in alignment with the agency’s Moon-to-Mars Strategy & Objectives. One of the key components of a human Mars mission is the in-space transportation system that delivers crew and cargo to Mars vicinity and returns the crew safely back to Earth. The Mars Architecture Team within ESDMD’s Strategy and Architecture Office has been evaluating multiple in-space transportation options to satisfy this functional need. The first step of this evaluation is to understand key architectural drivers for in-space transportation systems. Lunar and Mars missions have unique challenges, and systems designed for one may not be directly applicable to the other as they have different energy and mission needs. In addition, the time and distance for a Mars mission will be drastically different from the historical and current programs, requiring a new paradigm for mission architects. This paper investigates the impact of mission duration on a variety of different transportation options. As mission duration decreases, the total energy required to perform a roundtrip Mars mission increases exponentially, significantly increasing the required Earth departure mass. Sensitivity analyses of various in-space transportation system concepts were shown in this paper to begin mapping out the in-space transportation trade space. Each of the transportation systems has its own strengths and weaknesses, especially in the context of the continuous mission duration and vicinity stay time trade space. Although mission duration and Mars vicinity stay time may be key architecture drivers from an in-space transportation perspective, the decision of acceptable mission duration cannot be made solely from this perspective. Mission duration also has tangible impacts to crew health and performance, as well as system reliability and other key architecture considerations. The integrated nature of the architecture decision road map will be the primary focus of the Mars Architecture Team in the coming analysis cycle. This in-space transportation analysis will serve as the first guidepost of this critical activity that will guide the Moon-to-Mars Architecture into the humans to Mars segment.

Mars↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Space Transportation Sensitivity to Roundtrip Mission Duration and Mars Vicinity Stay Time

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate has been developing architecture concepts for human missions to Mars in alignment with the agency’s Moon-to-Mars Strategy & Objectives. One of the key components of a human Mars mission is the in-space transportation system that delivers crew and cargo to Mars vicinity and returns the crew safely back to Earth. The Mars Architecture Team within ESDMD’s Strategy and Architecture Office has been evaluating multiple in-space transportation options to satisfy this functional need. The first step of this evaluation is to understand key architectural drivers for in-space transportation systems. Lunar and Mars missions have unique challenges, and systems designed for one may not be directly applicable to the other as they have different energy and mission needs. In addition, the time and distance for a Mars mission will be drastically different from the historical and current programs, requiring a new paradigm for mission architects. This paper investigates the impact of mission duration on a variety of different transportation options. As mission duration decreases, the total energy required to perform a roundtrip Mars mission increases exponentially, significantly increasing the required Earth departure mass. Sensitivity analyses of various in-space transportation system concepts were shown in this paper to begin mapping out the in-space transportation trade space. Each of the transportation systems has its own strengths and weaknesses, especially in the context of the continuous mission duration and vicinity stay time trade space. Although mission duration and Mars vicinity stay time may be key architecture drivers from an in-space transportation perspective, the decision of acceptable mission duration cannot be made solely from this perspective. Mission duration also has tangible impacts to crew health and performance, as well as system reliability and other key architecture considerations. The integrated nature of the architecture decision road map will be the primary focus of the Mars Architecture Team in the coming analysis cycle. This in-space transportation analysis will serve as the first guidepost of this critical activity that will guide the Moon-to-Mars Architecture into the humans to Mars segment.

Mars↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Web-Based Negotiation Tool for Conflict Resolution in Upper Class E Traffic Management

In Upper Class E airspace 60,000 feet (or Flight level / FL600), vehicles such as High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) balloons and slow fixed-wing gliders have diverse vehicle characteristics and limited maneuverability. Due to these unique characteristics of high-altitude operations, a new type of strategic negotiation-based conflict resolution method has been proposed to avoid potential conflict between vehicles in Upper Class E airspace, well in advance of the conflict point and with ample time for bilateral negotiation. This paper introduces the first real-time web-based negotiation tool for high-altitude operations. To facilitate negotiation, this tool incorporates a bilateral negotiation model with an algorithm to assess conflict risks and generate new flight trajectories with a given flight path deviation. This tool allows users to make decisions during negotiation manually and automatically while enforcing the needed constraints for negotiation to be successful. Operators can make decisions at every step while they interact with each other on separate devices. To conduct sensitivity analysis, a mechanism that automates human inputs to the user interface is also developed for this web-based negotiation tool, such that fast-time simulations can be constructed and used to explore various scenarios to gain insights into this web-based negotiation model. Using this tool, a study was conducted to evaluate the impact of different negotiation strategies, vehicle types, vehicle crossing angles, and operator response times during the negotiations on metrics such as total negotiation completion time, number of negotiation rounds, and extra flight distance to avoid the conflict due to negotiation, compared to ones without negotiation. The results suggest that operators benefit from using negotiated flight paths with quick response times, across various crossing angles and vehicle types. Various Negotiation Strategies are investigated to simulate the behaviors associated with different types of negotiations. The findings demonstrate that, in comparison to the conventional method where a single operator assumes full responsibility, negotiation-based strategic deconfliction reduces the total extra flight distance by an average of 24% - 27%. On an individual basis, each operator may be able to save an average of 65% of their extra flight distance.

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Natural Language Processing for Extracting Rich Disease Data Aligned To Satellite Meteorological Data

Global climate change is redefining our understanding of how diseases spread. In Sri Lanka, vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever, encephalitis, and leptospirosis historically surged during the monsoon seasons when temperatures were high enough for mosquito eggs to hatch. Unfortunately, due to rising temperatures and more erratic rainfall patterns, mosquito eggs can now hatch year-round and are increasingly unpredictable, leading to an alarmingly increasing number of hospitalizations and deaths. More data is needed to adapt our response to these diseases in an increasingly warmer world. In the contemporary landscape, a wealth of disease information is available, yet accessibility remains limited due to unstructured data formats such as PDFs. Therefore, converting unstructured disease reports into structured formats is necessary for effectively leveraging data. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for collecting unstructured disease reports and transforming them into analyzable formats. By creating separate models tailored to each data format, we can ensure accuracy compared to general models. These straightforward models enhance accessibility and empower other researchers to use our tools. The returned structured data can then be harnessed for analysis, statistical purposes, and informing evidence-based public health interventions, thus facilitating more informed decision-making in healthcare. We deploy this framework to produce geospatial data for Sri Lanka and Brazil for many different conditions and align these data with satellite environmental data, providing for the first time a structured, aligned powerful dataset for disease modeling.

Open Source Open Science↗

DOE OSTI2018

2017 Publications Demonstrate Advancements in Wind Energy Research

In 2017, wind energy experts at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) made significant strides to advance wind energy. Many of these achievements were presented in articles published in scientific and engineering journals and technical reports that detailed research accomplishments in new and progressing wind energy technologies. During fiscal year 2017, NREL wind energy thought leaders shared knowledge and insights through 45 journal articles and 25 technical reports, benefiting academic and national-lab research communities; industry stakeholders; and local, state, and federal decision makers. Such publications serve as important outreach, informing the public of how NREL wind research, analysis, and deployment activities complement advanced energy growth in the United States and around the world. The publications also illustrate some of the noteworthy outcomes of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and Laboratory Directed Research and Development funding, as well as funding and facilities leveraged through strategic partnerships and other collaborations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Desktop Audits: Overview, Case Studies, Guidance

The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 requires that federal agencies audit 25% of their 3.1 billion square feet of covered facilities each year. Several newer, advanced options such as monitoring-based commissioning, fault detection and diagnostics, and energy management systems can help support data collection and analysis to be used for EISA compliance. The Federal Energy Management Program's (FEMP’s) Audit Decision Tree, Audit Definitions, and FEMP Guidance can be used by Agencies to determine the best approaches to evaluate their facilities. FEMP continues to develop additional resources to support agencies in meeting EISA compliance. This presentation gives an overview of desktop audits, including case studies and guidance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the US

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2020

Incorporating the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology in a Performance Assessment Model - 20403

The evidence of climate change is increasingly well-documented and impacts should be incorporated in performance assessment studies. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. Probabilistic modeling is a core requirement for quantifying uncertainty and evaluating its impacts. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment because of the existence of uncertainty is contradictory to good modeling practices - the most uncertain issues and parameters require the most attention in effective probabilistic modeling. Excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. In this work we develop methods to use the output from hydrologic models and analysis of historical aerial imagery to quantify and implement the impacts of climate change on hydrologic processes at a nuclear waste site in West Valley, New York. Specifically, we used the HELP (Hydraulic Performance of Landfill Performance) model to characterize key hydrologic processes under both current and future climate conditions to assess the impacts of changing climate on hydrology. A suite of previous climatic models were reviewed and synthesized to produce a cohesive representation of the current state of knowledge of the impact of climate change on important model inputs such as precipitation. Output from the HELP simulations was coupled to the GoldSim model that was used to develop the Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) approach through the application of a novel 'nearest neighbor' technique. First, several thousand realizations were generated from the HELP model using a Latin Hypercube experimental design to ensure adequate coverage of the parameter space of explanatory variables used to drive HELP. For example, porosity is a physical parameter that is used as an input to both HELP and the GoldSim PA model. We then ran sensitivity analysis (SA) algorithms on the output of HELP for each of the responses of interest. For each predictor, each time we build an SA model we get a different value for the sensitivity index (SI). From the collection of all the SA models, the average was computed among all of the SIs to represent the predictor within the context of the nearest neighbor approach. That is, we conduct SA on each HELP outcome for each scenario. This gives us parameter sensitivity indices for the outcomes. We average the parameter sensitivity indices across the outcomes to get the average SI for a scenario. For each realization that is generated from the Goldsim PA model, Goldsim generates random values for physical/empirical parameters that HELP uses as well. For each vector of physical/empirical parameters that Goldsim generates, the vector from the 5,000 HELP runs that is most 'similar' to the Goldsim vector is computed using the nearest neighbor approach. In this context 'similar' means minimization of the SA-weighted sum of the absolute differences among the 5,000 values computed for this statistic, where each value corresponds to a different HELP realization. In order to account for the impacts of climate change, this process was repeated using the spatially downscaled future climate projections. For each of the key parameters of interest, it was assumed that a linear change depicted the relationship between the values for the present day and those for 2100. In this way, the climatically-driven changes in key parameters used to inform the GoldSim model are quantified and incorporated into the PA model output for the future. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the U.S. - 4P Model

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

carbon↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards a Circular Economy for PET Bottles in the U.S. - 4P Framework

The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country. Along with that GHG emissions from the global plastic economy are expected to increase to 15% of the global carbon budget by 2050. It is imperative that plastic recycling is made a reality to reduce both plastic pollution in the environment and GHG emissions. A portfolio of end-of-life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different utility and lifetime. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. The novel analysis framework, Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) has been equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, techno-economic analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) down-cycling to lower-quality resin, closed-loop recycling to food-grade PET bottles, up-cycling to fiber-reinforced plastic (FRP), and conversion to non-plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy-wide basis. Integrating system dynamics into this robust plastics model that already incorporates techno-economics, circularity, and environmental impacts will enable identification of key bottlenecks between manufacturers, waste sorters, and reclaimers that currently prevent rapid decarbonization of the plastics economy. System dynamics (SD) explore the evolution of activities and technologies based on changed macro parameters such as plastic demand and supply, market shifts, and cross-sectoral interactions. This project particularly aims to explore the interplay between, waste collection, plastic waste sorting, recycling, and manufacturing, as well as the effect of plastic bale quality and plastic reuse initiatives on the surrounding process stages. This functionality will facilitate combinatory analysis in which a portfolio of end-of-life pathways are assessed simultaneously, with the exact makeup of that portfolio affected by parameters such as technology scales, resource constraints, and waste mitigation efforts. Integrating SD with the 4P framework enables analyzing the effect of increased revenue and reinvestment into improving process efficiencies, sorting and collection quantities. Through that, market effects of increased recycled resin availability can be studied for the plastics systems model for the US. The results will help identify technical or economic bottlenecks that currently limit efforts to decarbonize the U.S. plastics economy.

circular economy↗

NASA NTRS2011

Integration of Off-Track Sonic Boom Analysis in Conceptual Design of Supersonic Aircraft

A highly desired capability for the conceptual design of aircraft is the ability to rapidly and accurately evaluate new concepts to avoid adverse trade decisions that may hinder the development process in the later stages of design. Evaluating the robustness of new low-boom concepts is important for the conceptual design of supersonic aircraft. Here, robustness means that the aircraft configuration has a low-boom ground signature at both under- and off-track locations. An integrated process for off-track boom analysis is developed to facilitate the design of robust low-boom supersonic aircraft. The integrated off-track analysis can also be used to study the sonic boom impact and to plan future flight trajectories where flight conditions and ground elevation might have a significant effect on ground signatures. The key enabler for off-track sonic boom analysis is accurate computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solutions for off-body pressure distributions. To ensure the numerical accuracy of the off-body pressure distributions, a mesh study is performed with Cart3D to determine the mesh requirements for off- body CFD analysis and comparisons are made between the Cart3D and USM3D results. The variations in ground signatures that result from changes in the initial location of the near-field waveform are also examined. Finally, a complete under- and off-track sonic boom analysis is presented for two distinct supersonic concepts to demonstrate the capability of the integrated analysis process.

Ordaz, Irian↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sampling and Analysis Plan for LSL2 Underground Storage Tank Evaluation of PFAS in Soil: Protection of Groundwater

This SAP gathers all pertinent information relevant to the sampling and analysis of soil at the removal site for a former 10,000-gallon UST and reference sites in the vicinity of the excavation site. Data Quality Objectives establishes the process and steps for the acquisition of data. Data Flow Diagram establishes the decisions and next steps. Quality Assurance Project Plan establishes the quality requirements for data collection, including planning, implementation, and assessment of sampling, field measurements, and laboratory analysis. The work is being completed for DOE-SC Pacific Northwest Site Office.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2006

Postoptimality analysis in the selection of technology portfolios

This paper describes an approach for qualifying optimal technology portfolios obtained with a multi-attribute decision support system. The goal is twofold: to gauge the degree of confidence in the optimal solution and to provide the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy non-technical constraints.

portfolios↗