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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,639 records · Page 91
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Characteristics of Solar Energetic Ions as a Function of Longitude

Since the 2006 launch of STEREO , multi-spacecraft studies have yielded several surprising results regarding the spread of solar energetic particles (SEPs) within the inner heliosphere. We have investigated the role of energy and ridigity, using ACE and STEREO 10 MeV n{sup −1} oxygen data to identify 41 large SEP events observed by two or three spacecraft. We calculated fluence spectra from ∼0.1 to >10 MeV n{sup −1} for H, He, O, and Fe for each event at the observing spacecraft (including SOHO and GOES ). The particle fluences at 0.3, 1, and 10 MeV n{sup −1} were examined as a function of the distance between the associated solar flare longitude and the spacecraft magnetic footpoints at the Sun to determine the longitudinal spread of particles and study how the distribution centers and widths depend on energy and charge-to-mass (Q/M) for the first time. On average, the three-spacecraft event distributions were centered at 22 ± 4° west of the flare site and were 43 ± 1° wide, though there was substantial variability, while the fit to the aggregate of the two-spacecraft event fluences yielded significantly wider distributions at 0.3 and 1 MeV n{sup −1}. The widths derived from both the three- and two-spacecraft events show an energy dependence with distributions narrowing with increasing energy, consistent with lower energy ions experiencing more field line co-rotation, or being accelerated over a larger portion of the CME-driven shock or for longer times as the shock expands. Surprisingly, no clear evidence was found for a Q/M dependence to the widths or centers suggesting that rigidity-related processes are not the dominant means of spreading particles in longitude.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)↗
DOE OSTI2013

ON THE DETECTION AND TRACKING OF SPACE DEBRIS USING THE MURCHISON WIDEFIELD ARRAY. I. SIMULATIONS AND TEST OBSERVATIONS DEMONSTRATE FEASIBILITY

The Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) is a new low-frequency interferometric radio telescope, operating in the benign radio frequency environment of remote Western Australia. The MWA is the low-frequency precursor to the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) and is the first of three SKA precursors to be operational, supporting a varied science mission ranging from the attempted detection of the Epoch of Reionization to the monitoring of solar flares and space weather. In this paper we explore the possibility that the MWA can be used for the purposes of Space Situational Awareness (SSA). In particular we propose that the MWA can be used as an element of a passive radar facility operating in the frequency range 87.5-108 MHz (the commercial FM broadcast band). In this scenario the MWA can be considered the receiving element in a bi-static radar configuration, with FM broadcast stations serving as non-cooperative transmitters. The FM broadcasts propagate into space, are reflected off debris in Earth orbit, and are received at the MWA. The imaging capabilities of the MWA can be used to simultaneously detect multiple pieces of space debris, image their positions on the sky as a function of time, and provide tracking data that can be used to determine orbital parameters. Such a capability would be a valuable addition to Australian and global SSA assets, in terms of southern and eastern hemispheric coverage. We provide a feasibility assessment of this proposal, based on simple calculations and electromagnetic simulations, that shows that the detection of sub-meter size debris should be possible (debris radius of >0.5 m to ∼1000 km altitude). We also present a proof-of-concept set of observations that demonstrate the feasibility of the proposal, based on the detection and tracking of the International Space Station via reflected FM broadcast signals originating in southwest Western Australia. These observations broadly validate our calculations and simulations. We discuss some significant challenges that need to be addressed in order to turn the feasible concept into a robust operational capability for SSA. The aggregate received power due to reflections off space debris in the FM band is equivalent to a <1 mJy increase in the background confusion noise for the long integrations needed for Epoch of Reionization experiments, which is insignificant.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Q1-2024 Solar Cost Benchmarks

Each year, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) and its national laboratory partners develop cost benchmarks for U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. These benchmarks track progress toward reducing solar costs and guide R&D priorities. Unlike typical studies that report only $/W, SETO uses intrinsic units (e.g., $/m² for mounting structures) to better capture how technology improvements such as module efficiency would impact system costs. This allows flexible modeling where inputs can vary significantly to assess cost sensitivity. Costs are reported in two ways: Minimum Sustainable Price (MSP): Long term, financially viable price under stable market conditions. Modeled Market Price (MMP): Actual market price, influenced by short term distortions such as tariffs or subsidies. Three national labs collect cost data from industry stakeholders, ensuring no duplication in outreach to stakeholders. Data reflects real transactions (primarily from Q1) and is weighted based on the number of sources per cost element. The PV System Cost Model (PVSCM) divides total installed system cost into eight categories: 1. Module (PV) 2. Inverter 3. Energy Storage System (ESS) 4. Structural BOS (SBOS) 5. Electrical BOS (EBOS) 6. Fieldwork 7. Office work 8. Other (developer/EPC costs) The first five are hardware costs, while the last three are soft costs. Each category includes fixed and variable cost components, where “size” depends on context (e.g., manufacturing capacity for modules vs. system capacity for installation costs). Variable costs are expressed using appropriate intrinsic units. The model reflects the owner’s upfront overnight capital cost, excluding tax credits. Tariffs and subsidies are treated as temporary market distortions affecting MMP but not MSP. PVSCM is implemented in Excel, where cost elements are aggregated into total system cost. Additional sheets handle unit conversions and operation & maintenance (O&M), with O&M costs levelized over the system’s lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exploring Intentional Driving Volatility in Naturalistic Driving Environment Prior to Involvement in Unsafe Events

The sequence of instantaneous driving decisions and its variations prior to involvement in safety critical events, defined as event-based volatility, can be a leading indicator of safety. The research issue is characterizing volatility in instantaneous driving decisions in longitudinal and lateral directions, and how it varies across drivers involved in normal driving, crash, and near-crash events. A rigorous quasi-experimental study design is adopted to help compare driving behaviors in normal vs unsafe outcomes. Using a unique real-world naturalistic driving database from the SHRP 2, a test set of 9,593 driving events featuring 2.2 million temporal samples of real-world driving are analyzed. Twenty-four aggregate and segmented driving volatility measures based on acceleration and vehicular jerk are proposed, capturing variations in intentional and unintentional extreme instantaneous driving decisions. Given the possibility of unobserved heterogeneity/omitted variable bias, fixed- and random-parameter discrete choice models are developed that relate crash propensity to driving volatility and other factors. Statistically significant evidence is found that driver volatilities in near-crash and crash events are significantly greater than volatility in normal driving events. After controlling for traffic, roadway, and unobserved factors, the results suggest that greater intentional volatility increases the likelihood of both crash and near-crash events. Importantly, intentional volatility in longitudinal negative jerk has more negative consequences than intentional volatility in positive vehicular jerk. Compared to acceleration/deceleration, vehicular jerk can better characterize the volatility in microscopic driving decisions. The study demonstrates the value of big data analytics for understanding extreme driving behaviors in safe vs. unsafe driving outcomes.

Wali, Behram↗
DOE OSTI2023

GAHLS: an optimized graph analytics based high level synthesis framework

The urgent need for low latency, high-compute and low power on-board intelligence in autonomous systems, cyber-physical systems, robotics, edge computing, evolvable computing, and complex data science calls for determining the optimal amount and type of specialized hardware together with reconfigurability capabilities. With these goals in mind, we propose a novel comprehensive graph analytics based high level synthesis (GAHLS) framework that efficiently analyzes complex high level programs through a combined compiler-based approach and graph theoretic optimization and synthesizes them into message passing domain-specific accelerators. This GAHLS framework first constructs a compiler-assisted dependency graph (CaDG) from low level virtual machine (LLVM) intermediate representation (IR) of high level programs and converts it into a hardware friendly description representation. Next, the GAHLS framework performs a memory design space exploration while account for the identified computational properties from the CaDG and optimizing the system performance for higher bandwidth. The GAHLS framework also performs a robust optimization to identify the CaDG subgraphs with similar computational structures and aggregate them into intelligent processing clusters in order to optimize the usage of underlying hardware resources. Finally, the GAHLS framework synthesizes this compressed specialized CaDG into processing elements while optimizing the system performance and area metrics. Evaluations of the GAHLS framework on several real-life applications (e.g., deep learning, brain machine interfaces) demonstrate that it provides 14.27× performance improvements compared to state-of-the-art approaches such as LegUp 6.2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthetic β-sheets mimicking fibrillar and oligomeric structures for evaluation of spectral X-ray scattering technique for biomarker quantification

Archetypical cross-β spines sharpen the boundary between functional and pathological proteins including β-amyloid, tau, α-synuclein and transthyretin are linked to many debilitating human neurodegenerative and non-neurodegenerative amyloidoses. An increased focus on development of pathogenic β-sheet specific fluid and imaging structural biomarkers and conformation-specific monoclonal antibodies in targeted therapies has been recently observed. Identification and quantification of pathogenic oligomers remain challenging for existing neuroimaging modalities. We propose two artificial β-sheets which can mimic the nanoscopic structural characteristics of pathogenic oligomers and fibrils for evaluating the performance of a label free, X-ray based biomarker detection and quantification technique. Highly similar structure with elliptical cross-section and parallel cross-β motif is observed among recombinant α-synuclein fibril, Aβ-42 fibril and artificial β-sheet fibrils. We then use these β-sheet models to assess the performance of spectral small angle X-ray scattering (sSAXS) technique for detecting β-sheet structures. sSAXS showed quantitatively accurate detection of antiparallel, cross-β artificial oligomers from a tissue mimicking environment and significant distinction between different oligomer packing densities such as diffuse and dense packings. The proposed synthetic β-sheet models mimicked the nanoscopic structural characteristics of β-sheets of fibrillar and oligomeric states of Aβ and α-synuclein based on the ATR-FTIR and SAXS data. The tunability of β-sheet proportions and shapes of structural motifs, and the low-cost of these β-sheet models can become useful test materials for evaluating β-sheet or amyloid specific biomarkers in a wide range of neurological diseases. By using the proposed synthetic β-sheet models, our study indicates that the sSAXS has potential to evaluate different stages of β-sheet-enriched structures including oligomers of pathogenic proteins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient, Predictive Tomography of Multi-Qubit Quantum Processors

After decades of R&D, quantum computers comprising more than 2 qubits are appearing. If this progress is to continue, the research community requires a capability for precise characterization (“tomography”) of these enlarged devices, which will enable benchmarking, improvement, and finally certification as mission-ready. As world leaders in characterization -- our gate set tomography (GST) method is the current state of the art – the project team is keenly aware that every existing protocol is either (1) catastrophically inefficient for more than 2 qubits, or (2) not rich enough to predict device behavior. GST scales poorly, while the popular randomized benchmarking technique only measures a single aggregated error probability. This project explored a new insight: that the combinatorial explosion plaguing standard GST could be avoided by using an ansatz of few-qubit interactions to build a complete, efficient model for multi-qubit errors. We developed this approach, prototyped it, and tested it on a cutting-edge quantum processor developed by Rigetti Quantum Computing (RQC), a US-based startup. We implemented our new models within Sandia’s PyGSTi open-source code, and tested them experimentally on the RQC device by probing crosstalk. We found two major results: first, our schema worked and is viable for further development; second, while the Rigetti device is indeed a “real” 8-qubit quantum processor, its behavior fluctuated significantly over time while we were experimenting with it and this drift made it difficult to fit our models of crosstalk to the data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing Current THD’s Dependency on Solar Irradiance and Supraharmonics Profiling for a Grid-Tied Photovoltaic Power Plant

The rapidly increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) in power systems are now getting interconnected to set community grid structures, where power quality will be a major concern. The grid-to-grid (G2G) bidirectional power transfer among the distribution microgrid will not be considered commercially feasible unless the upstream harmonics are under the limits. The aggregation of such harmonics, measured as total harmonic distortion (THD), is feared to be beyond tolerable limits with the progression of rooftop grid-tied PV-like installations. Hence, this THD needs to be characterized with DER generation end variables. In this work, the photovoltaic (PV) DERs’ dependency on environment variables such as irradiance was profiled in the context of generating and injecting harmonics into the grid. A mathematical model of a grid-tied three-phase PV DER was developed as part of this correlation characterization, matching the fundamental unit structure of a 1.4 MW solar canopy located on the Florida International University (FIU) Miami campus. To determine the qualitative association with produced THD patterns, the model was evaluated with various irradiance settings. A real-time digital simulation (RTDS) platform was used to verify it. Following this confirmation, sets of data from power quality meters at the point of common coupling and FIU field sensors were utilized to validate further the correlation model. The results showed that the grid current’s THD exhibited a high correlation with the irradiance profile and its variation over time. The early morning and late afternoon periods of the day, associated with a low irradiance, constantly had higher harmonics generated from the PV DER. The midday THD was rather rational with partial shadings, hence a geolocation-dependent factor. These findings were verified by an RTDS and validated by real field data. In quantifying the THD injected by a single DER at a high-frequency (2–150 kHz) supraharmonics (SH) level, a 3% peak increment in magnitude was observed from the high-fixed to the low-fixed irradiance profile. The correlation characteristics depicted that the hybrid microgrid suffered from a daytime-dependent harmonic insertion from the grid-tied DER. This is a global problem unless specific measures are taken to mitigate the harmonics. The electrically notorious higher-frequency SH was found to increase proportionally. The G2G power transfer can be limited because of the higher THD in the early morning and late afternoon, which will also worsen because the numbers of grid-tied PV DERs (i.e., rooftop solar and industrial solar) are likely to increase rapidly soon. The community grid structure can thus have a controlled harmonics filtration setup purposefully designed to address the findings of this work, which also fall within the scope of our future research.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

Cs atoms on helium nanodroplets and the immersion of Cs{sup +} into the nanodroplet

We report the non-desorption of cesium (Cs) atoms on the surface of helium nanodroplets (He{sub N}) in their 6{sup 2}P{sub 1/2} ({sup 2}{Pi}{sub 1/2}) state upon photo-excitation as well as the immersion of Cs{sup +} into the He{sub N} upon photo-ionization via the 6{sup 2}P{sub 1/2} ({sup 2}{Pi}{sub 1/2}) state. Cesium atoms on the surface of helium nanodroplets are excited with a laser to the 6{sup 2}P states. We compare laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) spectra with a desorption-sensitive method (Langmuir-Taylor detection) for different excitation energies. Dispersed fluorescence spectra show a broadening of the emission spectrum only when Cs-He{sub N} is excited with photon energies close to the atomic D{sub 1}-line, which implies an attractive character of the excited state system (Cs*-He{sub N}) potential energy curve. The experimental data are compared with a calculation of the potential energy curves of the Cs atom as a function of its distance R from the center of the He{sub N} in a pseudo-diatomic model. Calculated Franck-Condon factors for emission from the 6{sup 2}P{sub 1/2} ({sup 2}{Pi}{sub 1/2}) to the 6{sup 2}S{sub 1/2} ({sup 2}{Sigma}{sub 1/2}) state help to explain the experimental data. The stability of the Cs*-He{sub N} system allows to form Cs{sup +} snowballs in the He{sub N}, where we use the non-desorbing 6{sup 2}P{sub 1/2} ({sup 2}{Pi}{sub 1/2}) state as a springboard for ionization in a two-step ionization scheme. Subsequent immersion of positively charged Cs ions is observed in time-of-flight mass spectra, where masses up to several thousand amu were monitored. Only ionization via the 6{sup 2}P{sub 1/2} ({sup 2}{Pi}{sub 1/2}) state gives rise to a very high yield of immersed Cs{sup +} in contrast to an ionization scheme via the 6{sup 2}P{sub 3/2} ({sup 2}{Pi}{sub 3/2}) state. When resonant two-photon ionization is applied to cesium dimers on He droplets, Cs{sub 2}{sup +}-He{sub N} aggregates are observed in time-of-flight mass spectra.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

A workflow for segmenting soil and plant X-ray computed tomography images with deep learning in Google’s Colaboratory

X-ray micro-computed tomography (X-ray μCT) has enabled the characterization of the properties and processes that take place in plants and soils at the micron scale. Despite the widespread use of this advanced technique, major limitations in both hardware and software limit the speed and accuracy of image processing and data analysis. Recent advances in machine learning, specifically the application of convolutional neural networks to image analysis, have enabled rapid and accurate segmentation of image data. Yet, challenges remain in applying convolutional neural networks to the analysis of environmentally and agriculturally relevant images. Specifically, there is a disconnect between the computer scientists and engineers, who build these AI/ML tools, and the potential end users in agricultural research, who may be unsure of how to apply these tools in their work. Additionally, the computing resources required for training and applying deep learning models are unique, more common to computer gaming systems or graphics design work, than to traditional computational systems. To navigate these challenges, we developed a modular workflow for applying convolutional neural networks to X-ray μCT images, using low-cost resources in Google’s Colaboratory web application. Here we present the results of the workflow, illustrating how parameters can be optimized to achieve best results using example scans from walnut leaves, almond flower buds, and a soil aggregate. We expect that this framework will accelerate the adoption and use of emerging deep learning techniques within the plant and soil sciences.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: Wall and Roof Insulation and New Windows

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock and ComStock models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on an upgrade package of three end-use savings shapes upgrades - Window Replacement, Exterior Wall Insulation, and Roof Insulation, which we will refer to collectively as the "High Efficiency Envelope" package. More details on the individual upgrades can be found on the ComStock Measures Documentation page. An upgrade package applies two or more EUSS upgrades to a single building model simulation. Since ComStock is a bottom-up physics-based model, an upgrade package will go beyond aggregating or summing the individual upgrade results and produce novel results by simulating interactions between the upgrades. For example, pairing an envelope upgrade with an electrification upgrade would likely result in higher savings results than the sum of these upgrades individually, and the size of the heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment may be reduced if the envelope upgrade reduces the loads significantly.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Insights into the variability of nucleated amyloid polymerization by a minimalistic model of stochastic protein assembly

Self-assembly of proteins into amyloid aggregates is an important biological phenomenon associated with human diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease. Amyloid fibrils also have potential applications in nano-engineering of biomaterials. The kinetics of amyloid assembly show an exponential growth phase preceded by a lag phase, variable in duration as seen in bulk experiments and experiments that mimic the small volumes of cells. Here, to investigate the origins and the properties of the observed variability in the lag phase of amyloid assembly currently not accounted for by deterministic nucleation dependent mechanisms, we formulate a new stochastic minimal model that is capable of describing the characteristics of amyloid growth curves despite its simplicity. We then solve the stochastic differential equations of our model and give mathematical proof of a central limit theorem for the sample growth trajectories of the nucleated aggregation process. These results give an asymptotic description for our simple model, from which closed form analytical results capable of describing and predicting the variability of nucleated amyloid assembly were derived. We also demonstrate the application of our results to inform experiments in a conceptually friendly and clear fashion. Our model offers a new perspective and paves the way for a new and efficient approach on extracting vital information regarding the key initial events of amyloid formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Monitoring of dielectric permittivity in accelerated alkali-silica reaction concrete with microwave backscattering

Deterioration of concrete due to the alkali–silica reaction (ASR) involves a reaction between alkaline ions in the cement pore solution and non-crystalline silica found in many aggregates. The product of reaction is a porous hydrophilic ASR gel, which causes expansion and cracking of concrete structure. Currently, there is no reliable method for non-destructive evaluation of ASR. We have investigated the feasibility of using relative dielectric permittivity obtained from X-band microwave backscattering of concrete. Advantages of this method of concrete evaluation are that measurements are non-contact and one-sided, and the approach is scalable to arbitrary-size concrete structures. The exploratory study was performed using an unrestrained set of accelerated ASR concrete prism specimens developed according to the ASTM1293 standard. One set of specimens contained no entrained air, while another set was contained entrained air. The specimens were removed from the environmental chamber at different times during a year-long study to create a set of different ASR maturity specimens. Strain measurements were performed on all specimens. Strain data both air entrained and non-air entrained sets were shown to be in close agreement with Larive model of isothermal unrestrained ASR expansion with similar fitting parameters. Furthermore, relative dielectric permittivity of concrete specimens was correlated with strain data. Both sets show correlation between dielectric permittivity and strain, with stronger linear correlation observed for the air-entrained specimens. Development of such correlation would enable estimating expansion of actual concrete structures from microwave backscattering measurements, which could be used for risk stratification to guide and minimize coring.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of Confidence Metrics for Nuclear Criticality Safety

Nuclear criticality safety standards provide guidance on the requirements and recommendations to establish confidence in computerized model results used to support operation with fissionable materials. By design, the guidance is not prescriptive, leaving the analysts free to determine how various sources of uncertainties are to be statistically aggregated. This report compares the analyses and key assumptions behind four notable methodologies documented in the nuclear criticality safety literature: the parametric, nonparametric, Whisper, and TSURFER methodologies. Because of the involved use of statistics entangled with heuristic recipes, the results of these methodologies are often difficult to interpret. Also, they are augmented by additional large administrative margins, eliminating the incentive to understand their differences. With the new resurgent wave of advanced nuclear systems focused on economizing operation—including advanced reactors, fuel cycles, and fuel concepts—there is a strong need to develop a clear understanding of uncertainties and their fusion methodologies to reduce uncertainties in a scientifically defensible manner. This report offers a deep dive into the various assumptions of the four noted methodologies, their adequacy, and their limitations, to provide guidance on developing confidence for the emergent nuclear systems. These systems are expected to be challenged by the scarcity of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

User Manual - HydraGNN: Distributed PyTorch Implementation of Multi-Headed Graph Convolutional Neural Networks

This document serves as user manual for HydraGNN, a scalable graph neural network (GNN) architecture that allows for a simultaneous prediction of multiple target properties using multi-task learning (MTL). The HydraGNN architecture is constructed by successive superposition of three different sets of layers. The first set is made of message-passing layers to exchange information across nodes in the graph and use this to update the nodal features. The second set is made of global pooling layers that aggregate information from all the nodes in the graph and map it into a scalar, and is needed only for global target properties that are related to the entire graph. The third set of layers is dedicated to the implementation of MTL, which is enabled by forking of the architecture into separate heads, each one of them dedicated to the predictive task of one specific target property. Through an object-oriented programming paradigm, HydraGNN is templated over different message-passing policies, which allows for a user-friendly hyperparameter study to assess the sensitivity of the predictive performance of the HydraGNN architecture on a specific dataset with respect to the choice of the message-passing policy. The object-oriented paradigm used by HydraGNN also allows for a user-friendly inclusion of newly developed message passing policies within the existing framework. HydraGNN supports distributed computing capabilities for scalable data reading and scalable training on leadership-class supercomputers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Common functionally important motions of the nucleotide‐binding domain of H sp70

ABSTRACT The 70 kDa heat shock proteins (Hsp70) are a family of molecular chaperones involved in protein folding, aggregate prevention, and protein disaggregation. They consist of the substrate‐binding domain (SBD) that binds client substrates, and the nucleotide‐binding domain (NBD), whose cycles of nucleotide hydrolysis and exchange underpin the activity of the chaperone. To characterize the structure–function relationships that link the binding state of the NBD to its conformational behavior, we analyzed the dynamics of the NBD of the Hsp70 chaperone from Bos taurus (PDB 3C7N:B) by all‐atom canonical molecular dynamics simulations. It was found that essential motions within the NBD fall into three major classes: the mutual class, reflecting tendencies common to all binding states, and the ADP‐ and ATP‐unique classes, which reflect conformational trends that are unique to either the ADP‐ or ATP‐bound states, respectively. “Mutual” class motions generally describe “in‐plane” and/or “out‐of‐plane” (scissor‐like) rotation of the subdomains within the NBD. This result is consistent with experimental nuclear magnetic resonance data on the NBD. The “unique” class motions target specific regions on the NBD, usually surface loops or sites involved in nucleotide binding and are, therefore, expected to be involved in allostery and signal transmission. For all classes, and especially for those of the “unique” type, regions of enhanced mobility can be identified; these are termed “hot spots,” and their locations generally parallel those found by NMR spectroscopy. The presence of magnesium and potassium cations in the nucleotide‐binding pocket was also found to influence the dynamics of the NBD significantly. Proteins 2015; 83:282–299. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Gołaś, Ewa I.↗