Pairing directional solar inputs from ray tracing to solar receiver/reactor heat transfer models on unstructured meshes: Development and case studies.
Abstract not provided.
Bush, Hagan Evan↗
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Results for “Solar”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Unlocking Solar Thermochemical Potential: Leveraging CSP Experience for Solar Thermochemistry.
Abstract not provided.
Ambrosini, Andrea↗
Montana Community-Scale Solar Strategy Project (Final Technical Report)
Grid-tied solar photovoltaic (PV) development began gradually in Montana, initially taking root in the early 2000s, largely in the form of small residential systems, rarely larger than two kilowatts. Utility support for solar technology through public benefit funding triggered the installation of the state’s first solar PV installations on community-owned facilities including schools, libraries, fire stations and local government buildings in the mid-2000s. By 2016, solar PV installations totaled approximately 28 megawatts of installed capacity, generating less than 0.05% of electricity sold in Montana. Montana’s solar fleet in 2016 included 17 megawatts of utility-scale solar farms, and three shared solar projects developed by rural electric cooperatives that ranged from 25 to 50 kilowatts in size. However, with only 3,000 households utilizing solar PV, either through an on-site installation or participation in a shared solar project, the potential benefits and reach of solar technology was limited. The Montana Solar Community Project (MSCP) was developed by the Montana Energy Office (MEO) at the Department of Environmental Quality in order to implement a “community-scale” solar energy strategy for the state that would cost-effectively expand Montanans’ access to solar PV. This project defines three types of community-scale solar projects: shared solar, community-sited solar, and group purchasing programs. The MSCP project conducted research and stakeholder engagement that helped to inform and develop model community-scale initiatives and an overarching community-scale solar strategy for Montana. Specifically, the project included a solar market assessment, stakeholder meetings across Montana, development of a menu of community-scale solar options, a study of solar potential on schools, community solar market research, and community-scale project implementation support. MSCP activities were successful in implementing solar projects and supporting solar development in communities across Montana. Project activities realized 280 kW of newly installed solar from two solarize programs, a shared solar array at a rural electric cooperative, and a solar array atop a Bozeman high school. The community-scale project implementation support and Solar on Schools components of the project resulted directly in the analysis and design of nearly 2 MW of distributed solar systems across the state. The Solar on Schools analysis alone produced solar designs for 25 schools, representing 920.8 kW of solar potential. Many of the deliverables from this project provide guidance on future development of community-scale solar in Montana, and resulted in a number of important conclusions about community-scale solar in Montana. There is strong interest in community-scale solar in Montana, as noted during stakeholder meetings, in response to solar market research surveys, and as seen by applications for implementation support grants provided by MEO. Project activities also suggest that Montanans demonstrated a desire and need for more information about solar energy technology, solar financing options, and the state’s policy and regulatory framework. Additionally, the project found that schools will be key partners for future community-scale solar programs. In addition to being excellent hosts for solar arrays, schools have the opportunity to use the installation of a solar array to develop educational materials and curricula to educate Montana’s future leaders about these technologies, which can be shared and replicated across the state. Project activities laid a clear path forward for solar energy in Montana. Certain activities have concrete next steps. For example, numerous solar arrays were designed for schools and other public buildings around the state. Many of those designs will be used as soon as funding becomes available. Other activities have less developed next steps, though lay the foundation for future work. The solar market assessment, solar market research, and community stakeholder meetings are good examples. These documents can be used as stepping stones to increase renewable energy education, increase stakeholder outreach, and support communities as they seek to develop community-scale solar projects.
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Final Report on Community Solar Design Models for Consumer, Industry, & Utility Success
Since the inception of the first community solar program in 2006, a number of different utility, solar industry and consumer driven community solar program models have emerged across the country with varying regulatory and solar market frameworks behind them. There is little consistency in how programs are administered, participant benefits are assigned, and customers are charged for participation. Further, while it is regularly speculated that community solar programs meet the needs of customers, no such consumer research has been completed against different community solar program models. This collaborative research effort addressed three primary issues: Program design models are numerous and evolving, with varying degrees of applicability across different state policy, utility regulatory, and solar market types. The agents, transaction methods, and accruing costs and benefits are highly variable and largely built on anecdotally successful model evolution. ‘Community solar’ (shared/group solar, solar gardens, etc.) has become a catch-all concept that means different things to different stakeholders, limiting constructive program development and growth. Everything from green pricing programs to remote net metering to metering aggregation has been framed as community solar. Consumer research on individual concepts and program models has been done, but no comprehensive and comparative market research on the broader design models and attributes has been performed. SEPA’s collaborative research effort on Community Solar Design Models for Consumer, Industry, & Utility Success is premised on the principle that greater standardization of community solar models and better understanding of consumer interests are key underpinnings of increased community solar deployment. Utilizing a cross-sectional multi-stakeholder working group, as well as focus groups and surveys, webinars, targeted outreach, and other tools, this project aims to expand the community solar knowledge base, facilitate information exchange, identify opportunities for standardization and improvement, determine what consumers’ interests are and how best to message to them, promote the research results within the solar and utility industries, and advance key opportunities for strategic deployment plans for community solar. A summary of these key takeaways/lessons learned during the grant period include: Siting of system should be evaluated up-front in the process Engage stakeholders collaboratively and early to help ensure the best chance for a successful program IT/billing departments must have a seat at the design table Establish upfront target objectives with respect to residential and commercial program access levels helps ensure program success Balance trade-offs to manage utility and developer risk with customer participation carefully to optimize pricing and sizing the program offering Over the course of the 42 month grant period, SEPA and its project team conducted a series of activities all designed to accelerate the number and size of community solar programs across the country. These activities included: Community Solar Program Design Models (2 reports) – SEPA, in collaboration with its projects team, the Coalition for Community Solar Access, and over 60 administrators of actual community solar programs, developed two reports providing hard data on the developments of community solar. These reports touched on program performance, quantity and type of programs, and program design steps, among other aspects. The reports collectively received over 2000 unique downloads. Market Research Report – SEPA, in collaboration with The Shelton Group, conducted a series of national surveys and focus groups to identify what customers were looking for in a community solar offering. The resulting report, “What the Community Solar Customer Wants”, received over 1,000 unique downloads. Technical Assistance Projects – SEPA supported 8 organizations who were pursuing community solar programs. Based on this support, over 5.7 MWs of new solar capacity have been developed. Technical Assistance Case Studies – SEPA developed two case studies detailing the technical assistance work in Fremont, NE Department of Utilities and the public power arm of Minster Ohio. These two reports have received 1,002 unique downloads. Webinar – SEPA hosted two webinars on community solar which collectively received 743 participants. The webinars focused on disseminating the findings of the research conducted under this project, as well as the research conducted in separate solar market pathways projects. Community Solar Design Workshops – 120 registrants learned about the trends in community solar and participated a business case exercise to design their own programs.
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Solar Bankability Data to Advance Transactions and Access (SB-DATA) Final Technical Report
The DOE project “Solar Bankability Data to Advance Transactions and Access”, known in the solar industry and referred to in this report as “Orange Button”, had project objectives of convening key stakeholder participants in the solar project lifecycle to develop a data taxonomy that meets to the solar industry’s needs for standardized data types for use in solar projects. Additional Orange Button deliverables included the development of an online data exchange to act as a clearinghouse of data that conformed to the data standard and additional solar industry data, and a Solar Data Translation Platform that could transform legacy solar project data to conform to the Orange Button data standard. All of these objectives were achieved. The Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA) provided program management, industry participant recruiting and convening, worked with the solar industry to define the scope of the Orange Button data taxonomy, and documented and delivered the taxonomy data requirements to funded project partners to develop both the taxonomy and the data conversion tools. Further efforts included performing extensive industry outreach and awareness to encourage adoption of the Orange Button taxonomy by the solar industry by enumerating the cost saving benefits of using the taxonomy and the public benefit of the increased use of solar energy due to increased bankability and viability of solar development projects. Solar PV panel and component prices have fallen in the last decade, while soft costs have remained stubbornly high and can account for as much as 64% of the total cost of a new solar system. Part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, Orange Button enabled the creation and adoption of industry-led open data standards for rapid and seamless information exchange across the solar value chain, from origination to decommissioning. Standardizing data will reduce soft costs by making it easier to share solar data and speeding up processes. The taxonomy is a product of solar industry participants convening to identify the pain points caused by incompatible data, and to agree on and standardize data types to be used by the actors in the solar project lifecycle. This report focuses on the SEPA led first phase of Orange Button project that included industry outreach and recruiting participants for five industry working groups, widespread industry outreach to increase awareness and encourage eventual adoption of the taxonomy, and the definition of the scope, use cases, and supporting data types of the Orange Button taxonomy. The solar industry has been receptive of the completed Orange Button taxonomy. In SEPA’s work, 401 solar industry participants facilitated by SEPA defined the scope, use cases, and requirements for the taxonomy leading to over 150 taxonomy early adopters incorporating the taxonomy into their software products serving the solar industry, and several large investors and banks have started projects to enable them to utilize the taxonomy to gain back-office efficiencies. Moving forward, as the solar industry more widely embraces the Orange Button taxonomy and begins realizing the tangible benefits of adoption at scale, we expect further pressure on solar soft costs and increases in the bankability of solar projects.
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Solar Resource Calibration, Measurement, and Dissemination: Final Report FY 2016-FY 2018
The Solar Resource Calibration, Measurement, and Dissemination project supports the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) initiative to make solar energy cost-competitive with other forms of electricity by improving the tools and methods to measure and model solar radiation and therefore reduce uncertainty in predicting solar output and improve the bankability of solar projects. This project has three tasks that conduct research on advancing solar resource measurements and modeling: Task 1: Applied solar Radiation Measurements. Task 2: National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). Task 3: Knowledge Sharing. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) activities ensure traceable solar measurements throughout the United States that are essential for project feasibility, due diligence, financing, and plant operations. The SRRL houses NREL's Baseline Measurement System (BMS), which provides a platform for improving the accuracy of solar measurements through research to improve the calibration and characterization of instruments and enable the development of new measurement technology and standards. The platform contains a variety of instruments measuring solar radiation and other meteorological parameters. Following best practices, BMS instruments are calibrated to ensure traceability to the World Radiometric Reference in compliance with ISO/IEC 17025 accreditation requirements. The BMS data sets are quality-controlled and made publicly available through the Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center website. The NSRDB is the most accessed public database of solar irradiance and associated weather parameters for use in energy modeling. It supports SETO's goals of reducing barriers to high penetrations of solar technologies by providing easy access to high-quality, foundational data essential for innovative product development and downstream modeling through the NSRDB website. Data are currently available for the contiguous United States and beyond for 20 years covering 1998-2017. The Physical Solar Model (PSM) that underpins the current NSRDB data sets is a unique physics-based model that has been developed at NREL and has opened the door to the use of next-generation satellite data sets for solar resource assessment and forecasting. Through the American Society for Testing Materials (ASTM) International and other international standards organizations, NREL continues to provide leadership in the development of standards that are relevant to the measurement and modeling of solar radiation for solar energy applications. Standards developed cover the calibration method of pyrheliometers (direct normal irradiance measurements), pyranometers (global horizontal irradiance measurements), spectroradiometers, ultraviolet radiometers, correct field deployment of these instruments, spectral distribution reference tables for photovoltaic modeling, and transfer of indoor calibrations. Further, NREL leads the International Energy Agency (IEA) Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme Task 16: Subtask 1, which focuses on the evaluation of current and emerging resource assessment methodologies. NREL and the IEA updated the Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications, which is widely used by the solar industry.
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Machine-Learning-Based Mapping and Modeling of Solar Energy with Ultra-High Spatiotemporal Granularity
Despite the rapid growth of solar energy, we still lack a dynamic, high-fidelity database that tracks the spatiotemporal variations of solar PVs and their associated infrastructures across different places at a spatially resolved scale. The absence of such data presents a barrier to various applications such as solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar incentive design, and climate risk assessment. In this project, we aim to bridge this gap by developing AI-based algorithms to extract granular information about solar PV installations and their associated infrastructures (i.e., distribution grids) from widely available unstructured data like remote sensing images and street views. As a result, we have built the Solar Energy Atlas, a fine-grained, large-scale geospatial overlay of distributed solar PVs and distribution grids. On top of it, we have advanced the understanding of solar adoption and distribution grid vulnerability to climate-induced extremes. Our major contributions can be summarized as follow: (1) By developing new AI algorithms, we have built the most comprehensive solar PV spatiotemporal database covering the entire US. This is the first time we obtained the exact GPS locations, size, subtype, and installation year information for rooftop solar PVs across the US. This database can be used for solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar energy policy analysis and design, and spatially-resolved climate risk assessment. (2) Leveraging this database, we have uncovered the socioeconomic driving factors that are correlated with earlier onset of solar adoption and higher saturated adoption levels. We have identified the heterogeneity in the effects of different types of financial incentives on solar adoption and provided implications for tailoring incentive design based on local income levels to promote equitable solar adoption. (3) We have developed a distribution grid GIS mapping algorithm which can obtain granular geospatial and topology information about distribution grids using multi-modal open data, reducing the dependency on hard-to-obtain smart meter data of conventional approaches. It shows effectiveness in both the U.S. and Sub-Saharan Africa. Using this algorithm, we have uncovered the non-uniform vulnerability of distribution grids to wildfires in California in the aspects of undergrounding protection and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) preparedness. This has provided important implications for improving the affordability and equity of grid adaptation approaches. (3) We have made our produced database publicly available and provided user-friendly interface to enable various stakeholders and the general public to interact with the data. We have also integrated the produced data into the Data Commons platform to enable the public to access the data and correlate it with other location-specific characteristics simply using natural language as queries. The impact of our project is three-fold: (1) New algorithms for mapping solar PVs and distribution grids across space and time, which are open source to facilitate researchers and industry; (2) New databases of solar PVs and distribution grids that have been made publicly available for engineering, social, and policy applications; (3) New understandings and actionable insights on the potential approaches to promoting solar adoption and reducing energy infrastructure vulnerabilities. In this report, we start by discussing the project background and motivation (section 5), followed by the overview of project objectives (section 6). Results and discussion for each task are presented in section 7. Significant accomplishments are summarized in section 8. This report will be concluded by discussing the paths forwards (section 9), products (section 10), and team roles (section 11).
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SMEX-Lite Modular Solar Array Architecture
For the most part, Goddard solar arrays have been custom designs that are unique to each mission. The solar panel design has been frozen prior to issuing an RFP for their procurement. There has typically been 6-9 months between RFP release and contract award, followed by an additional 24 months for performance of the contract. For Small Explorer (SMEX) missions, with three years between mission definition and launch, this has been a significant problem. The SMEX solar panels have been sufficiently small that the contract performance period has been reduced to 12-15 months. The bulk of this time is used up in the final design definition and fabrication of flight solar cell assemblies. Even so, it has been virtually impossible to have the spacecraft design at a level of maturity sufficient to freeze the solar panel geometry and release the RFP in time to avoid schedule problems with integrating the solar panels to the spacecraft. With that in mind, the SMEX-Lite project team developed a modular architecture for the assembly of solar arrays to greatly reduce the cost and schedule associated with the development of a mission- specific solar array. In the modular architecture, solar cells are fabricated onto small substrate panels. This modular panel (approximately 8.5" x 17" in this case) becomes the building block for constructing solar arrays for multiple missions with varying power requirements and geometrical arrangements. The mechanical framework that holds these modules together as a solar array is the only mission-unique design, changing in size and shape as required for each mission. There are several advantages to this approach. First, the typical solar array development cycle requires a mission unique design, procurement, and qualification including a custom qualification panel. With the modular architecture, a single qualification of the SMEX-Lite modules and the associated mechanical framework in a typical configuration provided a qualification by similarity to multiple missions. It then becomes possible to procure solar array modules in advance of mission definition and respond quickly and inexpensively to a selected mission's unique requirements. The solar array modular architecture allows the procurement of solar array modules before the array geometry has been frozen. This reduces the effect of procurement lead-time on the mission integration and test flow by as much as 50%. Second, by spreading the non-recurring costs over multiple missions, the cost per unit area is also reduced. In the case of the SMEX-Lite procurement, this reduction was by about one third of the cost per unit area compared to previous SMEX mission-unique procurements. Third, the modular architecture greatly facilitates the infusion of new solar cell technologies into flight programs as these technologies become available. New solar cell technologies need only be fabricated onto a standard-sized module to be incorporated into the next available mission. The modular solar array can be flown in a mixed configuration with some new and some standard cell technologies. Since each module has its own wiring terminals, the array can be arranged as desired electrically with little impact to cost and schedule. The solar array modular architecture does impose some additional constraints on systems and subsystem engineers. First, they must work with discrete solar array modules rather than size the array to fit exactly within an available envelope. The array area is constrained to an integer multiple of the module area. Second, the modular design is optimized for space radiation and thermal environments not greatly different from a typical SMEX LEO environment. For example, a mission with a highly elliptical orbit (e.g., Polar, SMEX/FAST) would require thicker coverglasses to protect the solar cells from the more intense radiation environment.
Lyons, John↗
Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)
We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar wind composition, aa, and the IMF strength, respectively, with corresponding figures of approx. 22%, approx. 32%, and approx. 25% for CME-related structures, and approx. 33%, approx. 19%, and approx. 33% for slow solar wind.
Richardson, I. G.↗
Accelerating Low-Income Financing and Transactions (LIFT) for Solar Access Everywhere (Final Technical Report)
The Accelerating Low-Income Financing and Transactions (LIFT) for Solar Access Everywhere project’s goal was to expand Low-to-Moderate Income (LMI) solar access for homeowners and renters. The LIFT project researched and gathered data on 453 LMI community solar project across the country. Following three years of research, the project delivered three groundbreaking research papers in June 2022, focused on 1) customer experience, 2) the growth of community solar programs, and 3) project-level financial best practices for serving LMI communities. These were followed by a user-friendly web-based Toolkit allowing users to interact with project data and key findings in November 2022. The customer experience research examined community solar subscribers’ primary motivations to join and remain satisfied with projects. Our research identified 453 projects across the country that dedicated some portion of the system capacity to LMI households. Seventeen of these projects participated in the LIFT customer experience research, allowing the project team to survey their customers and gain insight into how LMI subscribers feel about community solar and the programs that serve them. Subscribers in our sample indicated that the most critical issue that motivated them to participate in their program, however, was not savings but helping the environment. This was true for both LMI and non-LMI subscribers. Helping the environment was also the most important issue for LMI subscribers to measure how well their program was working for them. LIFT also explored how rapidly community solar has grown since its inception in 2006, publishing results in the Growth of U.S. Community Solar Serving LMI Households report. The results showed that community solar projects serving LMI households are one of the fastest growing segments of the solar industry. The report identifies and recommends ways developers should overcome real or perceived risks to LMI customer acquisition and subscriber management. Through the analysis of community solar project finance research, LIFT showed that most community solar projects serving LMI households are financed in the same ways mainstream community solar projects are financed. The value stacks and financial returns are no different, although LMI inclusion and participation rate varied across programs in our sample, ranging from between 10% and 100%. Based on the findings from the LIFT research, the team built a web-based user-friendly Toolkit, consisting of case studies, project finance best practices, and several tools built around the national dataset of 453 community solar projects that serve LMI households. These allow users to engage with the dataset in multiple ways; to explore the landscape of LMI community solar in the U.S., and to design community solar projects to optimize LMI inclusion, equity, and savings levels. The Toolkit also includes a library of LIFT-generated and LIFT-curated resources for users to learn more about how to best serve LMI communities through community solar. LIFT officially published the Toolkit on October 31, 2022, followed by a launch event (public webinar) on November 17, 2022. The core LIFT partners continue to engage in outreach and dissemination efforts to promote the LIFT Toolkit and research publications. Our driving motivation is to continue enabling solar developers to leverage the findings of this three-year research effort. By implication, the LIFT Toolkit is designed for use by utilities, energy service providers, and financiers or investors as a learning and decision-making tool to rapidly scale project models that optimize LMI inclusion and maximize real household savings.
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Solar cycle variation of interplanetary disturbances observed as Doppler scintillation transients
Interplanetary disturbances characterized by plasma that is more turbulence and/or moves faster than the background solar wind are readily defected as transients in Doppler scintillation measurements of the near-Sun solar wind. Systematic analysis of over 23,000 hours of Pioneer Venus Orbiter Doppler measurements obtained inside 0.5 AU during 1979-1987 have made it possible for the first time to investigate the frequency of occurrence of Doppler scintillation transients under solar minimum conditions and to determine its dependence on solar cycle. On the basis of a total of 142 transients, Doppler scintillation transient rates vary from a high of 0.22 in 1979 (one every 4.6 days) to a low of 0.077 transients/d in 1986 (one every 13 days), a decrease by almost a factor of 3 from solar maximum to solar minimum. This solar cycle variation, the strongest yet of any solar wind Doppler scintillation property, is highly correlated with both solar activity characterized by sunspot number and the coronal mass ejection rates deduced from Solswind and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) coronagraph observations. These results indicate that coronal mass ejections and Doppler scintillation transients are closely related not just during solar maximum, as occasional individual comparisons have shown in the past, but throughout the entire solar cycle, and strengthen the notation that the Doppler scintillation and optical transients are different manifestations of the same physical phenomenon. The magnitudes of the transients, as described by the ratio of peak to pretransient scintillation levels (EF for enhancement factor), and their distribution iwth heliocentric distance also vary with solar cycle. While EF tends to diminish with increasing heliocentric distance during high solar activity, it is more evenly distributed during low solar activity. EF is also lower during solar minimum, as 13% of the transients during solar maximum have values exceeding 23, the highest EF observed during solar minimum. These results are consistent with the fact that occasional major fast-moving interplanetary shocks that are observed during solar maximum are very rate during solar minimum.
Woo, Richard↗
The Impact of Stochastic Perturbations in Physics Variables for Predicting Surface Solar Irradiance
We present a probabilistic framework tailored for solar energy applications referred to as the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). WRF-Solar EPS has been developed by introducing stochastic perturbations into the most relevant physical variables for solar irradiance predictions. In this study, we comprehensively discuss the impact of the stochastic perturbations of WRF-Solar EPS on solar irradiance forecasting compared to a deterministic WRF-Solar prediction (WRF-Solar DET), a stochastic ensemble using the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS), and a WRF-Solar multi-physics ensemble (WRF-Solar PHYS). The performances of the four forecasts are evaluated using irradiance retrievals from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) over the contiguous United States. We focus on the predictability of the day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts during the year of 2018. The results show that the ensemble forecasts improve the quality of the forecasts, compared to the deterministic prediction system, by accounting for the uncertainty derived by the ensemble members. However, the three ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident forecasts due to a lack of calibration. In particular, WRF-Solar EPS produces less optically thick clouds than the other forecasts, which explains the larger positive bias in WRF-Solar EPS (31.7 W/m 2 ) than in the other models (22.7–23.6 W/m 2 ). This study confirms that the WRF-Solar EPS reduced the forecast error by 7.5% in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) compared to WRF-Solar DET, and provides in-depth comparisons of forecast abilities with the conventional scientific probabilistic approaches (i.e., SKEBS and a multi-physics ensemble). Guidelines for improving the performance of WRF-Solar EPS in the future are provided.
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Dust Accumulation and Solar Panel Array Performance on the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Project
One of the most fundamental design considerations for any space vehicle is its power supply system. Many options exist, including batteries, fuel cells, nuclear reactors, radioisotopic thermal generators (RTGs), and solar panel arrays. Solar arrays have many advantages over other types of power generation. They are lightweight and relatively inexpensive, allowing more mass and funding to be allocated for other important devices, such as scientific instruments. For Mars applications, solar power is an excellent option, especially for long missions. One might think that dust storms would be a problem; however, while dust blocks some solar energy, it also scatters it, making it diffuse rather than beamed. Solar cells are still able to capture this diffuse energy and convert it into substantial electrical power. For these reasons, solar power was chosen to be used on the 1997 Mars Pathfinder mission. The success of this mission set a precedent, as NASA engineers have selected solar power as the energy system of choice for all future Mars missions, including the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Project. Solar sells have their drawbacks, however. They are difficult to manufacture and are relatively fragile. In addition, solar cells are highly sensitive to different parts of the solar spectrum, and finding the correct balance is crucial to the success of space missions. Another drawback is that the power generated is not a constant with respect to time, but rather changes with the relative angle to the sun. On Mars, dust accumulation also becomes a factor. Over time, dust settles out of the atmosphere and onto solar panels. This dust blocks and shifts the frequency of the incoming light, degrading solar cell performance. My goal is to analyze solar panel telemetry data from the two MERs (Spirit and Opportunity) in an effort to accurately model the effect of dust accumulation on solar panels. This is no easy process due to the large number of factors involved. Changing solar flux (the amount of solar energy reaching the planet), solar spectrum, solar angle, rover tilt, and optical depth (the opacity of the atmosphere due to dust) were the most significant. Microsoft Excel and Visual Basic are used for data analysis. The results of this work will be used to improve the dust accumulation and atmosphere effects model that was first created after the Mars Pathfinder mission. This model will be utilized and applied when considering the design of solar panel array systems on future Mars projects. Based on this data, and depending upon the tenure and application of the mission, designers may also elect to employ special tools to abate dust accumulation, or decide that the expected level of accumulation is acceptable.
Turgay, Eren H.↗
The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop Report
Solar irradiance, the flux of the Sun s output directed toward Earth, is Earth s main energy source.1 The Sun itself varies on several timescales over billions of years its luminosity increases as it evolves on the main sequence toward becoming a red giant; about every 11 years its sunspot activity cycles; and within just minutes flares can erupt and release massive amounts of energy. Most of the fluctuations from tens to thousands of years are associated with changes in the solar magnetic field. The focus of the National Research Council's September 2011 workshop on solar variability and Earth's climate, and of this summary report, is mainly magnetically driven variability and its possible connection with Earth's climate variations in the past 10,000 years. Even small variations in the amount or distribution of energy received at Earth can have a major influence on Earth's climate when they persist for decades. However, no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the last 50 years. Locally, however, correlations between solar activity and variations in average weather may stand out beyond the global trend; such has been argued to be the case for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, even in the present day. A key area of inquiry deals with establishing a unified record of the solar output and solar-modified particles that extends from the present to the prescientific past. The workshop focused attention on the need for a better understanding of the links between indices of solar activity such as cosmogenic isotopes and solar irradiance. A number of presentations focused on the timescale of the solar cycle and of the satellite record, and on the problem of extending this record back in time. Highlights included a report of progress on pyroheliometer calibration, leading to greater confidence in the time history and future stability of total solar irradiance (TSI), and surprising results on changes in spectral irradiance over the last solar cycle, which elicited spirited discussion. New perspectives on connections between features of the quiet and active areas of the photosphere and variations in TSI were also presented, emphasizing the importance of developing better understanding in order to extrapolate back in time using activity indices. Workshop participants reviews highlighted difficulties as well as causes for optimism in current understanding of the cosmogenic isotope record and the use of observed variability in Sun-like stars in reconstructing variations in TSI occurring on lower frequencies than the sunspot cycle. The workshop succeeded in bringing together informed, focused presentations on major drivers of the Sun-climate connection. The importance of the solar cycle as a unique quasi-periodic probe of climate responses on a timescale between the seasonal and Milankovitch cycles was recognized in several presentations. The signal need only be detectable, not dominant, for it to play this role of a useful probe. Some workshop participants also found encouraging progress in the top-down perspective, according to which solar variability affects surface climate by first perturbing the stratosphere, which then forces the troposphere and surface. This work is now informing and being informed by research on tropospheric responses to the Antarctic ozone hole and volcanic aerosols. In contrast to the top-down perspective is the bottom-up view that the interaction of solar energy with the ocean and surface leads to changes in dynamics and temperature. During the discussion of how dynamical air-sea coupling in the tropical Pacific and solar variability interact from a bottom-up perspective, several participants remarked on the wealth of open research questions in the dynamics of the climatic response to TSI and spectral variability. The discussion of the paleoclimate record emphasized that the link between solar varbility and Earth s climate is multifaceted and that some components are understood better than others. According to two presenters on paleoclimate, there is a need to study the idiosyncrasies of each key proxy record. Yet they also emphasized that there may be an emerging pattern of paleoclimate change coincident with periods of solar activity and inactivity, but only on long timescales of multiple decades to millennia. Several speakers discussed the effects of particle events and cosmic-ray variability. These are all areas of exciting fundamental research; however, they have not yet led to conclusive evidence for significant related climate effects. The key problem of attribution of climate variability on the timescales of the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum were directly addressed in several presentations. Several workshop participants remarked that the combination of solar, paleoclimatic, and climate modeling research has the potential to dramatically improve the credibility of these attribution studies.
Source record↗
The Significance of Helium in the Solar Wind: Insights from 1 AU
Doubly ionized helium is the 2nd most abundant element in the solar wind. The solar wind’s properties are a function of the source region on the Sun from which it emanates. This includesthe abundances of solar wind Helium and rarer, heavier elements. The speed of the solar wind, when observed near Earth, is also related to the type of source region from which the solar wind originated. Early solar wind models are unable to explain how the solar wind achieved the asymptotically fastest, non-transient speeds observed at 1 AU and the solar wind must be accelerated during transit through interplanetary space. Only recently have observations shown that the solar wind from different source regions is accelerated by different mechanisms. However, the solar wind speed is also known to be an insufficient for identifying the type of solar source from which it originated, likely because these different acceleration mechanisms accelerate the solar wind into two different speed regimes that overlap. Furthermore, the mechanism that provides the coronal plasma sufficient energy to accelerate into the solar wind is still undetermined. These mysteries are further complicated by the Sun’s evolution through its 11-year activity cycle and the impact of the solar cycle on in situ observations. Using solar wind observations of the helium abundance from the Wind spacecraft and heavy ion abundances from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) along with observations of the Sunspot Number – a long-studied proxy for the Sun’s activity – we will discuss the imprint of different solar wind source regions on observations collected at 1 AU. We will draw inferences about the role of helium in the acceleration of coronal plasma into the solar wind. Using the Alfvénicity – a metric related to the solar wind acceleration that occurs during transit through interplanetary space – we will derive a solar wind classification scheme for near-Earth observations that is related to the differences in the source regions from which it emanates.
Benjamin Alterman↗
National Solar Jobs Accelerator (Final Technical Report (FTR))
The aptitudes and experiences gained through military service—such as dynamic leadership, teamwork and critical thinking skills, technical specialization, and a mission-completion work ethic—make veterans exceptional candidates for a wide range of solar energy careers. The solar industry offers a highly collaborative and purpose-driven work environment that resonates with service members and veterans looking to rise to their next challenge, and solar employers are eager to tap into this valuable talent pool. From October 2019 - February 2023, The National Solar Jobs Accelerator (publicly the Solar Ready Vets Network TM (SRV Network; SRVN)) enhanced and streamlined options for military service members and veterans to pursue solar training, certification, and employment, while advancing solar employers’ efforts and capacity to invest in military talent as part of a long-term workforce development strategy. The SRVN was led by the Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC) in partnership with the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), the US Chamber of Commerce Foundation’s Hiring Our Heroes program (HOH) and the North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners (NABCEP). Through several direct-impact and indirect, high-impact capacity building initiatives aligned with six key objectives, the SRV Network strengthened solar career pathways, and promoted increased representation of military talent across all levels and sectors of the solar workforce. A work-based learning Corporate Fellowship model connected transitioning service members with on-the-job experience in leadership roles with solar employers nationwide. The project advanced broader veteran recruitment and talent development by expanding GI Bill eligibility and streamlining veterans’ pathways for solar training and credentialing, supported direct connections to jobs with top solar employers, and led coordination among key education and industry partners to advance registered apprenticeships aligned with solar career pathways. To ensure that the project best served the needs of all stakeholders, an Advisory Committee of military-connected solar professionals, solar employers, and training providers met biannually to guide project activities and sustainability plans. The project team engaged the broader “SRV Network” (comprised of over 2,000 veterans, employers and training organizations) through regular newsletters and targeted outreach to share resources, hiring fairs, webinars, and other opportunities for engagement. The work done under this award builds on the previous iterations of the Department of Energy’s Solar Ready Vets ® program. As the solar industry continues to grow rapidly over the next decade, the military community will continue to be a highly valuable source of talent. The relationships established and work accomplished through this project will have an enduring positive impact well beyond the funding period.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation
Providing reliable probabilistic solar radiation information is needed to improve management of the uncertainty and variability of solar generation. Thus, guidance on how to develop skillful and accurate ensemble forecasts is essential and it will ultimately contribute to integration of high amounts of solar energy on the grid. A team from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research had been collaborating to develop the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS) in the past three years to produce probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts and better predict solar energy by quantifying forecast uncertainty. The WRF-Solar EPS basically generates ensemble members for solar irradiance based on stochastic perturbations to provide intraday and day-ahead probabilistic forecasts. This study will present main research steps in developing the WRF-Solar EPS including: (a) tangent linear analysis for identifying key input variables of six WRF-Solar modules significantly related to predicting of cloud and solar irradiance, (b) combining stochastic perturbation technique with the WRF-Solar model, and (c) ensemble calibration method to decrease error and uncertainty of ensemble-based solar forecasts. The capability of WRF-Solar EPS is now updated to the most recent version of standard WRF model. This presentation will summarize comprehensive results from the evaluation of forecasts against the National Solar Radiation Data Base as well as ground-measured observations. Moreover, we will introduce the user's guide for WRF-Solar EPS (e.g., parameters to configure stochastic perturbations) and future extension of this research.
day-ahead forecast↗
Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Solar PV
The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) research platform. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes the behavior of a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane MC250 electrolyzer system, manufactured by Nel Hydrogen , [1] when fed historical data generated by the 430-kW, fixed-axis solar photovoltaic (PV) array located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus. (While the electrolyzer balance of plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack.) Solar PV power output data for the 2020 calendar year were categorized on a daily basis by total energy generation and standard deviation. Each day was then ranked by these metrics, and the 25th, 50th, and 100th percentiles were selected. The 75th percentile day did not exhibit sufficient variability to make for a valuable experiment. A similar process was used for the related historical wind dataset . [2] The historical days in 2020 that represented these percentiles are Dec. 19, March 29, and May 4, respectively. The entire solar day’s power profile was then fed through the MC250 electrolyzer. Due to its length, the 100th percentile day experiment was split into two parts, and the final 3 hours of the solar day were not captured. These final 3 hours contained no spikes or dips of interest and simply represented a slow decay of input solar power. Also, a single timestamp (13:13:47 on Jan. 14, 2026) was lost in the hydrogen system supervisory control and data acquisition. Finally, during the 25th percentile experiment (solar day Dec. 19, 2020) data recording was lost from 11:00:13 to 11:14:45. The roughly 15 minutes of the solar profile were rerun at the end of the experiment and spliced into this time slot during post-processing. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical solar profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the slide deck “Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis: NLR Historical Solar PV Analysis and Profile Generation” accessible with this data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single solar PV electrolysis experiment and is formatted as: {technology}_{percentile}_{scaling factor} For instance, “solarPV-430kW_25_2x.zip” reports the experiment using the 25th percentile solar data from the historical 2020 solar PV dataset, scaled to 200%. Scaling factors were applied to the generated solar PV power output files to more closely match the 1.25-MW capacity of the electrolyzer. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and solar power input. A PDF file detailing the historical solar data statistical analysis used to generate the solar profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_solarPV_experiments.csv". [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser . [2] data.nlr.gov/submissions/316 .
08 HYDROGEN↗