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At least 1,639 records · Page 91

Generative models on phase space

Deep generative models such as diffusion and flow matching are powerful machine learning tools capable of learning and sampling from high-dimensional distributions. They are particularly useful when the training data appears to be concentrated on a submanifold of the data embedding space. For high-energy physics data, consisting of collections of relativistic energy-momentum 4-vectors, this submanifold can enforce extremely strong physically-motivated priors, such as energy and momentum conservation. If these constraints are learned only approximately, rather than exactly, this can inhibit the interpretability and reliability of such generative models. To remedy this deficiency, we introduce generative models which are, by construction, confined at every step of their sampling trajectory to the manifold of massless N-particle Lorentz-invariant phase space in the center-of-momentum frame. In the case of diffusion models, the "pure noise" forward process endpoint corresponds to the uniform distribution on phase space, which provides a clear starting point from which to identify how correlations among the particles emerge during the reverse (de-noising) process. We demonstrate that our models are able to learn both few-particle and many-particle distributions with various singularity structures, paving the way for future interpretability studies using generative models trained on simulated jet data.

Bogorad, Zachary [Fermilab]↗

Kinetic model development for single step ethanol to butene rich olefin process over Cu-Y/Beta catalysts

Here, this study presents the first intrinsic kinetic model for the single-step conversion of ethanol to butene-rich olefins over bifunctional Cu-Y/Beta catalysts, addressing a critical gap in the design and scale-up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) processes. The reaction network comprises ten global steps involving dehydrogenation, aldol condensation, hydrogenation, and dehydration reactions, distributed across Cu and rare-earth (Y) active sites. The model incorporates dual-site functionality (Cu and Y site) and explicitly accounts for key intermediates such as crotonaldehyde and butanal. Reaction rates are formulated using Langmuir–Hinshelwood–Hougen–Watson (LHHW) kinetics. Kinetic parameters are extracted by fitting the model to lab-scale packed-bed reactor data across a wide range of temperatures and space velocities, demonstrating strong agreement in ethanol conversion and product selectivity. The reaction kinetics developed in this work provide a foundational basis for constructing reactor models that enable process optimization and scale-up of ethanol-to-jet fuel technologies.

Cu-Y/Beta catalyst↗

Addressing Human and Organizational Factors in Nuclear Industry Modernization: An Operationally Focused Approach to Process and Methodology

Utility owners and operators of commercial nuclear power plants in the United States (U.S.) are and will be modernizing their nuclear power plants by performing a digital transformation involving design of an integrated set of systems that together enable a technology centric operating plant. The Plant Modernization Pathway of the U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program has a strategic action plan that lays the groundwork for a digital transformation of the nuclear industry. The model for this transformation is an advanced concept of operations, with an end point vision, “To achieve the maximum aggregate benefit enabled by this digital transformation.” To achieve this, the digital infrastructure for a nuclear plant must be designed as an integrated set of systems that together enable a technology centric operating model. The digital transformation process obviously needs to involve technology considerations and systems engineering, but it also needs to include human and organizational expertise. Thus, human and organizational factors, including sociotechnical systems methods and techniques (e.g., Cognitive Systems Engineering, Systems Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes, human systems integration, and Macroergonomics) need to be considered for digital transformation projects in order to effectively integrate human and organizational expertise efforts into the new work system that results from nuclear power plant digital modernization. That is, the work system is the basic unit of sociotechnical systems analysis and contains three components: personnel, technical, and organization and management. These components should be jointly optimized with respect to the interdependence of systems performance criteria of effectiveness, efficiency and safety. Joint optimization can be achieved through the application of three human and organization functions: knowledge representation, knowledge elicitation, and cross-functional integration. This report provides a strategic framework for effective integration of human and organizational expertise within nuclear power plant digital modernization efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗

Towards Trustworthy and Interpretable Deep Learning-assisted Ecohydrological Models

The transformational science question we plan to address is: How do we leverage in-situ observations and simulations from process-based ecohydrological model to construct interpretable and trustworthy deep learning (DL) models for improved reliability of prediction of quantities of interest (QoIs) under hydro-climatic extremes?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Analytical Model for the Tension-Shear Coupling of Woven Fabrics with Different Weave Patterns under Large Shear Deformation

It is essential to accurately describe the large shear behavior of woven fabrics in the composite preforming process. An analytical model is proposed to describe the shear behavior of fabrics with different weave patterns, in which tension-shear coupling is considered. The coupling is involved in two parts, the friction between overlapped yarns and the in-plane transverse compression between two parallel yarns. By introducing the concept of inflection points of a yarn, the model is applicable for fabrics with different weave patterns. The analytical model is validated by biaxial tension-shear experiments. A parametric study is conducted to investigate the effects of external load, yarn geometry, and weave structure on the large shear behavior of fabrics. The developed model can reveal the physical mechanism of tension-shear coupling of woven fabrics. Moreover, the model has a high computational efficiency due to its explicit expressions, thus benefiting the material design process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An efficient numerical model for predicting residual stress and strain in parts manufactured by laser powder bed fusion

Abstract Computational modeling of additively manufactured structures plays an increasingly important role in product design and optimization. For laser powder bed fusion processes, the accurate modeling of stress and distortion requires large amount of computational cost due to very localized heat input and evolving complex geometries. The current study takes advantage of a graphics processing unit accelerated explicit finite element analysis code and approximated heat conduction analysis to predict the macroscopic thermo-mechanical behavior in laser selective melting. Adjacent layers and tracks were lumped to reduce the number of time steps and elements in the finite element model. The effects of track and layer grouping on prediction accuracy and solution efficiency are investigated to provide a guidance for a cost-effective simulation. Thin-wall builds from Inconel alloy 625 (IN625) powders were simulated by applying the developed modeling approach to get the detailed residual stress and distortion at a computational speed 50 times higher than conventional approach. Under repeated heating and cooling cycles, a high tensile stress was produced near surfaces of a build due to a larger shrinkage on surface than that in central area. It is also shown that horizontal stresses concentrate near the root and top layers of the IN625 build. The predicted residual elastic strain distribution was validated by the experimental measurement using x-ray synchrotron diffraction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Barium stars as tracers of s -process nucleosynthesis in AGB stars: II. Using machine learning techniques on 169 stars

Barium (Ba) stars are characterised by an abundance of heavy elements made by the slow neutron capture process (s-process). This peculiar observed signature is due to the mass transfer from a stellar companion, bound in a binary stellar system, to the Ba star observed today. The signature is created when the stellar companion is an asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star. We aim to analyse the abundance pattern of 169 Ba stars using machine learning techniques and the AGB final surface abundances predicted by the FRUITY and Monash stellar models. We developed machine learning algorithms that use the abundance pattern of Ba stars as input to classify the initial mass and metallicity of each Ba star’s companion star using stellar model predictions. We used two algorithms. The first exploits neural networks to recognise patterns, and the second is a nearest-neighbour algorithm that focuses on finding the AGB model that predicts the final surface abundances closest to the observed Ba star values. In the second algorithm, we included the error bars and observational uncertainties in order to find the best-fit model. The classification process was based on the abundances of Fe, Rb, Sr, Zr, Ru, Nd, Ce, Sm, and Eu. We selected these elements by systematically removing s-process elements from our AGB model abundance distributions and identifying the elements whose removal had the biggest positive effect on the classification. We excluded Nb, Y, Mo, and La. Our final classification combined the output of both algorithms to identify an initial mass and metallicity range for each Ba star companion. With our analysis tools, we identified the main properties for 166 of the 169 Ba stars in the stellar sample. The classifications based on both stellar sets of AGB final abundances show similar distributions, with an average initial mass of M = 2.23 M ⊙ and 2.34 M ⊙ and an average [Fe/H] = –0.21 and –0.11, respectively. We investigated why the removal of Nb, Y, Mo, and La improves our classification and identified 43 stars for which the exclusion had the biggest effect. We found that these stars have statistically significant and different abundances for these elements compared to the other Ba stars in our sample. We discuss the possible reasons for these differences in the abundance patterns.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Inertial Effects During the Process of Supercritical CO 2 Displacing Brine in a Sandstone: Lattice Boltzmann Simulations Based on the Continuum-Surface-Force and Geometrical Wetting Models

Inertial effects during the process of supercritical CO 2 displacing brine in porous media may not be negligible according to recent studies. Capturing the inertial effects of the physical CO 2 -brine system imposes a requirement on the grid resolution and viscosity to surface tension ratio for pore-scale simulations, which some commonly used simulators may not be able to meet. To fulfill the parameter requirement, we combine the continuum-surface-force based color-gradient lattice Boltzmann (LB) multiphase model and the geometrical wetting model and extend the model to 3D under the multiple-relaxation-time framework. We validate the model via simple benchmarks which show significant improvement over the traditional models. Furthermore, we perform 3D drainage simulations in a heterogeneous micromodel where the simulation result agrees well with experimental data, while our previous work fails to reproduce certain displacement patterns in the experiment due to the use of a traditional LB model that cannot fulfill the parameter requirement. Finally, we perform high-fidelity 3D drainage simulations to study the inertial effects in a Bentheimer sandstone sample. These findings show that stronger inertial effects generally help develop more CO 2 flow pathways for the same capillary number which results in higher CO 2 saturation, consistent with the micromodel results. The phenomena can be found in both low and high capillary number cases, indicating that the inertial effects are not dependent on the mean velocity. In addition, the change of the invasion patterns is not proportional to the change of inertial effects, thus exhibiting threshold behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Integrated Process Testing of MSR Salt Spill Accidents

Part of the licensing process for new nuclear reactors requires vendors to assess the potential consequences of identified accident scenarios using accident progression modeling. The accident scenario that will likely be evaluated by all molten salt reactor (MSR) developers is a spill of radionuclide-bearing fuel salt onto the reactor containment floor (i.e., a salt spill accident). The development of accident progression models requires experimental data to inform which processes to incorporate, to enable the calculation of parameters to model these processes, and to validate the model predictions. The data should quantify the sensitivities of key processes (e.g., molten salt spreading, heat transfer, containment structure corrosion, radionuclide vaporization, and aerosol generation) towards the initial conditions of the spill, the ambient environment, and the features of the containment. In addition, results from integrated process tests that quantify coupled processes are required to validate systems-level models. This report documents results from integrated process tests conducted on simulated molten salt spill accidents. The generated experimental data simultaneously quantify the heat transfer behavior of the spilled salt, compositional changes to the bulk salt, and the release of surrogate fission products from the spilled salt as aerosol particles. All tests that were conducted used FLiNaK doped with surrogate fission products, and the variables that were evaluated included the initial salt temperature and the concentration of surrogate fission products present in the salt. The major accomplishments of this work include identifying surrogate fuel salt compositions that provide insight into the dispersal behavior of radionuclides of potential significance to the source term, employing previously developed methods and measurement techniques to simultaneously measure key processes, generating data on the coupled processes of molten salt heat transfer and surrogate fission product release as aerosol particles, demonstrating new test methods for real-time monitoring of the flow rate of the spill and aerosol size quantification in an argon atmosphere, and developing a mass transfer model for cesium and iodine release from molten FLiNaK to provide insight into aerosol formation by vapor condensation. The same methodology applied herein can be employed to study different salt compositions of interest to MSR developers, different environmental conditions, and other variables that are relevant to postulated accident scenarios. The insights gained from these integrated process tests conducted at a laboratory scale will be incorporated into future integral effects tests conducted at an engineering scale.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Developing a simulator-based satellite dataset for using machine learning techniques to derive aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in models and observations in a consistent framework

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions (ACPI) remain a major uncertainty in understanding the Earth’s radiation budget and water cycle (including extremes). After decades of active research, various observationally based metrics have been developed to constrain ACPI in Earth System Models (ESMs), but direct comparison of model and data estimates can confound scientific understanding because limitations and uncertainties in sampling and retrieval procedures may combine with model deficiencies in process representations of ACPI to obstruct understanding. Furthermore, conventional ACPI metrics often vary from one regime to another, and the ACPI process representation in ESMs is also typically derived based on only a limited area/regime (even though the parameterization applies globally). To bridge the gap between models and data and to correctly describe ACPI in all regimes, we propose to construct a new CALIPSO-CloudSat merged dataset that is produced by the same algorithms used in satellite simulators in ESMs, and to use machine learning techniques to derive new ACPI metrics that can be accurately estimated by satellites and can provide meaningful constraints on cloud microphysical process representations in ESMs. The dataset will include measured and retrieved variables for aerosol, cloud, and precipitation from CALIPSO and CloudSat, and environmental variables from meteorological reanalysis. The data will be used to train a neural network to construct the ACPI metrics as a function of environmental conditions. The new ACPI formula will be used to constrain the ACPI in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), and to augment/reformulate the ACPI process representation in the E3SM to improve the simulation of the evolution of the atmosphere under different environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model orthogonalization and Bayesian forecast mixing via principal component analysis

One can improve predictability in the unknown domain by combining forecasts of imperfect complex computational models using a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework. In many cases, however, the models used in the mixing process are similar. In addition to contaminating the model space, the existence of such similar, or even redundant, models during the multimodeling process can result in misinterpretation of results and deterioration of predictive performance. In this paper we describe a method based on the principal component analysis that eliminates model redundancy. We show that by adding model orthogonalization to the proposed Bayesian model combination framework, one can arrive at better prediction accuracy and reach excellent uncertainty quantification performance.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Long–short-term memory encoder–decoder with regularized hidden dynamics for fault detection in industrial processes

The ability of recurrent neural networks (RNN) to model nonlinear dynamics of high dimensional process data has enabled data-driven RNN-based fault detection algorithms. Previous studies have focused on detecting faults by identifying the discrepancies in data distribution between the faulty and normal data, as reflected in prediction errors generated by RNN models. However, in industrial processes, variations in data distribution can also result from changes in normal control setpoints and compensatory control adjustments in response to disturbances, making it hard to differentiate between normal and faulty conditions. This paper proposes a fault detection method utilizing a long short-term memory (LSTM) encoder–decoder structure with regularized hidden dynamics and reversible instance normalization (RevIN) to compactly represent high-dimensional measurements for effective monitoring. During training, the hidden states of the model are regularized to form a low-dimensional latent space representation of the original multivariate time series data. As a result, the prediction errors of the latent states can be used to monitor the abnormal dynamic variations, while the reconstruction errors of the measured variables are used to monitor the abnormal static variations. Furthermore, the proposed indices can reflect operating conditions, even when the distribution of test data changes, which helps distinguish faults from normal adjustments and disturbances that controllers can settle. Here, data from numerical simulation and the Tennessee Eastman process are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed fault detection method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simulations of flaming combustion and flaming-to-smoldering transition in wildland fire spread at flame scale

Our objective in the present study is to provide basic insights into the coupling between external-gas and solid biomass vegetation processes that control the dynamics of flame spread in wildland fire problems. Here we focus on a modeling approach that resolves processes occurring at vegetation and flame scales, i.e., the formation of flammable vapors due to the thermal degradation of the solid biomass, the subsequent combustion in ambient air, the thermal feedback to the biomass through radiative and convective heat transfer, and the possible transition from flaming combustion (taking place outside of the solid biomass) to smoldering combustion (taking place inside the solid biomass). The capability uses a multiphase combustion framework and treats external-gas processes through a Large Eddy Simulation solver and solid biomass processes through a discrete particle model. The discrete particle model adopts a one-dimensional porous medium formulation, includes descriptions of drying, thermal pyrolysis, oxidative pyrolysis, and char oxidation, as well as a description of the external-gas-to-solid-biomass diffusion of oxygen mass; the discrete particle model thereby provides a treatment of in-depth oxidative processes and allows the simulation of smoldering combustion. The modeling capability is applied to the simulation of fire spread across a surrogate biomass vegetation bed corresponding to a discrete array of cylindrical-shaped, vertically-oriented, pine wood sticks, characterized by a monomodal size distribution, in horizontal flat terrain and under wind-aided conditions. The numerical results demonstrate that the model can simulate successful flaming-to-smoldering transition followed by complete biomass consumption.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Exploration with Scalable Gaussian Process Reinforcement Learning

Exploration is a challenging problem in reinforcement learning (RL), especially in environments with sparse rewards. Quantifying and utilizing the parametric uncertainty has been shown to be paramount for successful exploration [Osband et al., 2018]. Bayesian, or approximately Bayesian, methods present a principled means of estimating the parametric uncertainty in RL problems. Gaussian processes, nonparametric Bayesian models, are often impractical due to poor scalability and computational bottlenecks. We introduce a scalable Gaussian process RL (GPRL) method which directly induces sparsity in the covariance matrix to facilitate faster computation. This is a departure from previous GPRL methods which instead rely on data reduction and subsampling. We compare various covariance-based exploration techniques (Thompson sampling, upper confidence bound, and probabilistic maximum variance) which leverage our scalable GP framework in sparse reward environments. Finally, we show favorable comparison against the bootstrapped deep Q-Network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A localized ensemble of approximate Gaussian processes for fast sequential emulation

More attention has been given to the computational cost associated with the fitting of an emulator. Substantially less attention is given to the computational cost of using that emulator for prediction. This is primarily because the cost of fitting an emulator is usually far greater than that of obtaining a single prediction, and predictions can often be obtained in parallel. In many settings, especially those requiring Markov Chain Monte Carlo, predictions may arrive sequentially and parallelization is not possible. In this case, using an emulator procedure which can produce accurate predictions efficiently can lead to substantial time savings in practice. In this paper, we propose a global model approximate Gaussian process framework via extension of a popular local approximate Gaussian process (laGP) framework. Our proposed emulator can be viewed as a treed Gaussian process where the leaf nodes are laGP models, and the tree structure is learned greedily as a function of the prediction stream. The suggested method (called leapGP) has interpretable tuning parameters which control the time‐memory trade‐off. One reasonable choice of settings leads to an emulator with a training cost and makes predictions rapidly with an asymptotic amortized cost of .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Agricultural Impacts on Nitrogen Cycling: Climate and Air Pollution (Final Technical Report)

We have successfully added a parameterization of ammonia emissions from synthetic fertilizer and manure from agriculture to Earth System Models. We have evaluated how emissions change in the future and the processes driving these changes. We have examined the impact of agricultural ammonia emissions on present-day air quality and have evaluated the impact of resolving the emissions with high temporal resolution. We have also examined the impact of how Earth System Models treat the cycling of emissions in soils. Our code, the Flows of Agricultural Nitrogen – version 2 – model (FANv2) has been run in both the CLM framework and the ELM framework. To my knowledge the code has not yet been fully implemented into ELM. Volatilization of ammonia (NH3) from fertilizers and livestock wastes forms a significant pathway of nitrogen losses in agricultural ecosystems and constitutes the largest source of atmospheric emissions of NH3. We have provided a major update to the process model FAN (Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen), which evaluates NH3 emissions interactively within an Earth system model; in this work, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used. The updated version (FANv2) includes a more detailed treatment of both physical and agricultural processes, which allows the model to differentiate between the volatilization losses from animal housings, manure storage, grazed pastures, and the application of manure and different types of mineral fertilizers. The modeled ammonia emissions are first evaluated at a local scale against experimental data for various types of fertilizers and manure, and they are subsequently run globally to evaluate NH3 emissions for 2010–2015 based on gridded datasets of fertilizer use and livestock populations. Comparison of regional emissions shows that FANv2 agrees with previous inventories for North America and Europe and is within the range of previous inventories for China. However, due to higher NH3 emissions in Africa, India, and Latin America, the global emissions simulated by FANv2(48 Tg N) are 30 %–40 % higher than in the existing inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗