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At least 1,639 records · Page 91

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM)

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM) is an Excel-based model that evaluates the economics of an unconventional shale well on a per-well and per-pad basis. The model calculates the net cash flow, internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), payout month and year, and breakeven price (for either oil- or gas-wells). The model can be used to estimate the economics of a well or pad over its lifetime (development through site reclamation) based on (1) the capital and operating costs associated with well/pad development and operations, (2) the revenue associated with oil, gas, and condensate production streams, and (3) accounting for relevant tax policies and asset depreciation applicable for oil and gas operations. The main input for the model is the completion design and production data. Key financial considerations in the model include oil, gas, and condensate market prices, tax-related settings, royalty rates, the discount rate, minimum economic hurdle (IRR) [if performing break-even analysis], and project contingency. The financial consideration can be adjusted to reflect the level of granularity the user requires as input when calculating the economics for a well or pad development. In addition, the model affords users the option to provide their user inputs for all cost categories considered. As a result, the model can be used to generate a multitude of scenario cases for sensitivity analysis of the various financial considerations, as well as production and cost profiles. To make this seamless, the model has the capability for key economic outputs to be exported in large batches through macros-enabled functions on its “Model Output Summary” and “Multi-Well Cost Analysis. The spreadsheet model includes macros and user-defined functions, so the user must enable Excel’s macro capability for the model to function correctly.

Sheriff, Alana↗

Energy-water interdependencies across the three major United States electric grids: A multi-sectoral analysis

As water availability and timing of delivery fluctuates and the US electric grid sees rapid transformation and reconfiguration under decarbonization and resource adequacy strategies, there is a critical need for information and data that supports understanding the water-energy interdependency landscape. The United States currently lacks comprehensive data, informative visualizations, and analysis of energy-water interdependencies at scales necessary to support resource and operational decision-making. This article provides US electricity interconnection-level Sankey diagrams that show the relative reliance of water and energy across various economic sectors. A deeper analysis is additionally provided at the county level to illustrate trends and potential opportunities related to resiliency and efficiency in multi-sectoral water and energy flow distributions and intensities. We find that the electricity interconnections in the US vary dramatically in their water and energy interdependencies across applications and economic sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Long-Term Information Management (LTIM) of Safeguards Data at Repositories: Phase II

One of the challenges of implementing safeguards for geological repositories will be the long-term preservation of safeguards-related data for 100 years or more. While most countries considering the construction and operation of such facilities agree that safeguards information should be preserved, there are gaps with respect to standardized requirements, guidelines, timescales, and approaches. This study analyzes those gaps and explores research to clarify stakeholder needs, identify current policies, approaches, best practices and international standards, and explores existing safeguards information management infrastructure. The study also attempts to clarify what a safeguards data classification system might look like, how long data should be retained, and how information should be exchanged between stakeholders at different phases of a repository’s life cycle. The analysis produced a variety of recommendations on what information to preserve, how to preserve it, where to store it, retention options and how to exchange information in the long term. Key findings include the use of the globally recognized international records management standard, ISO15489, for guidance on the development of information management systems, and the development of a Key Information File (KIF). The KIF could be used to identify only the most relevant, high-level safeguards information and the history of decision making about the repository. The study also suggests implementing on-site and off-site records storage in digital and physical form; developing a safeguards data classification system; long-term records retention with periodic reviews every 5 to 10 years during each phase of the repository life cycle; and establishing transition procedures well in advance so that data shepherds and records officers can transfer information with incoming facility managers effectively and efficiently. These and other recommendations are further analyzed in this study.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Resilience of Adapting Networks: Results from a Stylized Infrastructure Model.

Adaptation is believed to be a source of resilience in systems. It has been difficult to measure the contribution of adaptation to resilience, unlike other resilience mechanisms such as restoration and recovery. One difficulty comes from treating adaptation as a deus ex machina that is interjected after a disruption. This provides no basis for bounding possible adaptive responses. We can bracket the possible effects of adaptation when we recognize that it occurs continuously, and is in part responsible for the current system’s properties. In this way the dynamics of the system’s pre-disruption structure provides information about post-disruption adaptive reaction. Seen as an ongoing process, adaptation has been argued to produce “robust-yet-fragile” systems. Such systems perform well under historical stresses but become committed to specific features of those stresses in a way that makes them vulnerable to system-level collapse when those features change. In effect adaptation lessens the cost of disruptions within a certain historical range, at the expense of increased cost from disruptions outside that range. Historical adaptive responses leave a signature in the structure of the system. Studies of ecological networks have suggested structural metrics that pick out systemic resilience in the underlying ecosystems. If these metrics are generally reliable indicators of resilience they provide another strategy for gaging adaptive resilience. To progress in understanding how the process of adaptation and the property of resilience interrelate in infrastructure systems, we pose some specific questions: Does adaptation confer resilience?; Does it confer resilience to novel shocks as well, or does it tune the system to fragility?; Can structural features predict resilience to novel shocks?; Are there policies or constraints on the adaptive process that improve resilience?.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

AI-enabled traveling wave protection for microgrids

Grid forming inverters provide voltage and frequency regulations for microgrids; in the meantime, new challenges are introduced for microgrid protections. For instance, inverters’ control strategies can affect protection behaviors, and low short-circuit ratios and bi-directional power flows also make protection operations complex. Protection schemes based on conventional principles such as overcurrent and distance relays do not always provide reliable, sensitive, or selective operations. Here, we devise a traveling wave protection approach for microgrids using a wavelet-driven deep neural network named WaveletKernelNet (WKN). Compared with conventional methods, the presented approach provides enhanced sensitivity, higher selectivity, and better identification of various faults in microgrids. Extensive case studies validate the efficacy and excellent performance of the devised approach.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Primary material supply configurations and domestic recycling for cost-effective battery material production in the US

Battery cathode active material costs hinge on regionally concentrated, price-volatile metal supply. Here. we construct a regional facility-level cost model based on over 80 global lithium, cobalt, and nickel mines, refineries, and battery-grade material plants. Our model yields aggregated lithium, nickel, manganese, and cobalt production material costs from 392 region-based supply configurations for five different cathode active materials. Focusing on the United States, all-domestic supply is 9–34% costlier than global average, increasing by cobalt content, while these shortfalls can be overcome by selective low-cost material imports. Furthermore, we analyze costs of two U.S.-based recycling facilities from primary data and techno-economic modelling and compare resulting cathode active material-level costs to primary supply. Although it is still significantly higher on cathode active material cost-level, rising end-of-life flows and lowered black-mass prices will, however, make secondary supply cost-competitive to domestic and foreign primary supply cost floors. Facility-level benchmarks reveal targeted import, scaling, and production cost optimization as levers for a resilient, cost-effective U.S. battery-material supply chain.

Energy↗

MEP Metric Correlations with Socioeconomic and Built Environment Factors [Slides]

NREL's Mobility Energy Productivity tool, or MEP, quantifies the ability of an area's transportation system to connect individuals to goods, services, employment opportunities, and other activities while accounting for time, cost, and energy. However, the MEP tool itself does not examine correlations between mobility energy productivity and other sociodemographic and built environment variables relevant to the urban and transportation planning space. Examining these correlations could have two possible implications -- first, understanding what factors correlate with mobility energy productivity could help urban planners make equitable decisions in allocating transportation resources. Second, as the MEP has not been calculated for all urban areas in the US and is computationally expensive, if other publicly available variables were predictive enough of MEP then a simple model could be used to predict MEP instead of having to compute it for an area for which it has not been updated. A statistical analysis to investigate both of these questions is presented, with many significant associations found between the MEP and identified variables of interest.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Perspectives on User Engagement of Satellite Earth Observation for Water Quality Management

The management and governance of our surface waters is core to life and prosperity on our planet. However, monitoring data are not available to many potential users and the disparate nature of water bodies makes consistent monitoring across so many systems difficult. While satellite Earth observation (EO) offers solutions, there are numerous challenges that limit the use of satellite EO for water monitoring. To understand the perceptions of using satellite EO for water quality monitoring, a survey was conducted within academia and the water quality management sector. Study objectives were to assess community understanding of satellite EO water quality data, identify barriers in the adoption of satellite EO data, and analyse trust in satellite EO data. Most (40 %) participants were beginners with little understanding of satellite EO. Participants indicated problems with satellite EO data accessibility (31 %) and interpretability (26 %). Results showed a high level of trust with satellite EO data and higher trust with in-situ EO data. This study highlighted the gap between water science, applied social science, and policy. A transdisciplinary approach to managing water resources is needed to bridge water disciplines and take a key role in areas such as social issues, knowledge brokering, and translation.

water quality↗

Enriching OpenStreetMap network data for transportation applications: Insights into the impact of urban congestion on accessibility

OpenStreetMap (OSM) data is a valuable open-source resource for various transportation, traffic, and planning applications. However, OSM network data lack operating traffic speed information, which is critical for transport planning and operations. Addressing this shortcoming, this study leverages commercial vendor data (to serve as ground truth) with exogenous, open-source variables characterizing local transport infrastructure, land use, and demographic information to predict average congested traffic speeds on OSM networks. Three machine-learning models were tested and estimated for OSM links with and without speed limit information in the Denver metropolitan region. Among these, XGBoost performed best, with mean absolute errors of 3.27 and 3.62 mph for links with and without speed limits, respectively. The developed models accurately predicted traffic speeds for different hours and days of the week compared to ground truth data. Using these predicted speeds, drive accessibility scores were computed for the Denver region for different time periods using the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric to understand the impact of congestion on energy-efficient accessibility. Results show that congestion-adjusted drive accessibility can be significantly lower compared to accessibility calculated using free flow speeds. Specifically, weekday evening hours saw a 42 % drop in accessibility due to reduced speeds, particularly around downtown Denver. Across the Denver metro region, approximately half as many opportunities and jobs are accessible in under 20 min by car during the evening peak period relative to free flow conditions. These findings underscore the importance of using congestion-adjusted operating speeds rather than speed limits in accessibility calculations, as reliance on speed limits can substantially overestimate energy-efficient drive accessibility in large, car-centric cities susceptible to significant congestion. In conclusion, the methodology presented here could further enrich OSM network data, making them useful for an even broader range of transportation applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrity Levels: A New Paradigm for Protecting Computing Systems

As the field of determined and increasingly sophisticated adversaries multiplies, the risk to integrity of deployed computing devices magnifies. Given the ubiquitous connectivity, substantial storage, and accessibility, the increased reliance on computer platforms make them a significant target for attackers. Over the past decade, malware has transitioned from attacking a single program to subverting the operating system (OS) kernel by means of what is commonly known as a rootkit. While computer systems require patches to fix newly discovered vulnerabilities, undiscovered vulnerabilities remain Furthermore, typical solutions utilize mechanisms that operate within the OS. If the OS becomes compromised, these mechanisms may be vulnerable to being disabled or upon detection of the potential compromise, being "shut down" until patched or otherwise mitigated. We propose an innovative approach to designing computer systems that allows the behavior or functionality of the computer system to change based on the integrity of the system. Instead of attempting to prevent or detect all malware attacks, our proposed approach allows possible graceful degradation of functionality according to the security policy specification as anomalies of security concern are detected. We believe this innovative paradigm can determine the "integrity lever of the system. Based on the integrity level, the computer system may behave differently or limit access to data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Need Help Planning for the Future of Electric Vehicles?

This brochure helps states find tools to make informed decisions about implementing electric vehicles (EVs) and their charging infrastructure. To do so, many states will use funds from the Environmental Mitigation Trust Agreements from the Volkswagen Clean Air Act Settlement. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and its national laboratories provide extensive information on EVs including both community planning and charging infrastructure. This information can help states implement EV and charging infrastructure projects using settlement funds. The tools in this brochure represent a sampling of key DOE resources available to states and other jurisdictions.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Maintenance of Maywood Laboratory Operations Support During Contractor Transition and Replacement of the Project Databases - 16329

In December 2013, Cabrera Services (Cabrera) executed transition of the FUSRAP Maywood Superfund Site remediation project operations, including an on-site accredited environmental lab, from a large business that had established technology infrastructure in place for over a decade which required updating to support the expected remediation scope and client needs. As of November 2015, Cabrera has shipped over 116,000 yd{sup 3} of contaminated soil to disposal facilities. During the transition, the USACE FUSRAP Maywood Laboratory (UFML) continued to support project operations, providing the expected timely and reliable results and maintaining their New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection certification for all parameters of concern, while having to cope with new challenges and additional tasks having the potential to disrupt the laboratory's ability to support project operations. This case study examines the challenges with maintaining a certified radiochemistry laboratory and an aggressive remediation schedule during a period of prime contractor transition which included a complete IT infrastructure overhaul, and conversion of the existing Microsoft Access laboratory database and project Electronic Data Management System (EDMS) to a customized commercial solution. Challenges: I. Procurement of a new database subcontractor and working closely with them to achieve the following: a. Migration of all environmental (including radiological, chemical, and quality control), health and safety, and spatial data as well as reports, queries, and analytical instrument software processes from a MS Access data management system to a SQL server system; and b. Verification that the functionality and data integrity of the databases remained intact. II. The onsite laboratory was changed over to a new onsite network and the following tasks were completed with little or no interruption to site operations by January 10, 2014: i. Installation of new instrument personal computers (PCs) and making them fully operational; ii. Configuration of the lab domain and server to host the LIMS (replaced all servers/domain/workstations with Windows 7 and Server 2012 machines). iii. Networking of the laboratory building into the rest of the project site via fiber optic cabling across the site. iv. Upgrade of the wide area network (WAN) data connection to high-speed Fiber Optic service; v. Upgrade of the telephones into voice over internet protocol (VOIP) phones. vi. Splitting of the database into front ends and a centralized back-end hosted on the new server to allow simultaneous access for fixes and improvements. III. Phone service interruption; phone systems were operational by January 10, 2014. Additional Tasks: I. Revision of the USACE FUSRAP Maywood Laboratory (UFML) Quality Systems Manual Rev. 1 Submitted 01/16/14; II. Writing of the Uniform Federal Policy Quality Assurance Project Plan Rev. 1 (UFP-QAPP) submitted 1/21/14. This document replaced the prior project data quality plan, the Chemical Data Quality Management Plan. III. Support of USACE communications to the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) on lab management and personnel transition to Cabrera. This work was important since it ensured a smooth transition and shows how critical project records infrastructure such as databases, can be upgraded with minimal interruption of project support. Such work may provide benefit to other similar projects, especially long term projects where database infrastructure upgrades may be beneficial in terms of improved efficiencies in data recording and transfer, and improved security in data storage. (authors)

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The Trillion Pixel GeoAI Challenge Workshop

Rapid innovations in satellite and airborne remote sensing capabilities holds the promise of collecting high-resolution imagery with daily, even hourly cadence across the entire planet. Availability of such earth observation data streams at varying spatial and temporal scales, coupled with astonishing progress in AI and transformational advances in high performance computing bring into view the possibility of mapping and interpreting the surface of our planet at unprecedented detail. The implications of such capability for science, technology, policy, and security are far reaching. Moreover, even at a modest 5m resolution, 100 trillion pixels will describe the surface of the Earth every day. Consequently, monitoring the pulse of our planet will entail collecting, refining, analyzing, and curating those 100 trillion pixels within a 24-hour period. That is a challenge with unknown solutions as of today’s advances and therefore serves as a key motivation for this workshop. The GEOINT and AI communities have a unique opportunity to enable detailed monitoring the pulse of our planet and obtain new insights into how humans occupy, interact with, and alter the surface of the Earth over time. From a science and technology standpoint, this is a modern-day moonshot that presents numerous challenges particularly related to scaling the analysis to every pixel covering the planet. The challenge of making sense of all these pixels in a timely fashion include image processing at scale, selective analysis of only the pixels that matter, generalizing AI models across heterogeneous locations, computing on hardware that is memory constrained, and deploying automated feature extraction on edge devices. The designing of capable GeoAI workflows and data pipelines will require interdisciplinary efforts and partnerships. The Trillion Pixel Challenge for GeoAI workshop was is promoted as a first community effort to discuss priority research and development directions and to establish the partnerships and collaborations needed to make progress on critical scientific and operational applications from local to regional to planet scale.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Global Overview of Energy Storage Performance Test Protocols

As part of the World Bank Energy Storage Partnership, this document seeks to provide support and knowledge to a set of stakeholders across the developing world as we all seek to analyze the emerging opportunities and technologies for energy storage in the electric sector. As global prices for renewable energy have dropped dramatically over the last decade and continue to decline and the value of energy storage has increased in many systems, the World Bank technical teams and others have been hearing of a variety of problems. Related, developing countries have been asking a series of questions in this new area. This working group seeks to address the issues raised in part by creating this document and working to gather a variety of experts in this area from across the globe in support of the World Bank efforts. Performance testing, in combination with test beds (Working Group 2), is critical to fulfill the promise offered by these breakthrough technologies and critical to increasing trust in these systems and reducing risk. This document seeks to provide information to stakeholders in developing countries on the current global performance testing landscape of the battery (and broader) performance testing landscape. This document does that by summarizing testing protocols published by key global entities. From this summary, it can be concluded that there are several organizations within each region that set protocols for the testing and specifications of stationary energy storage systems. Across most of these entities, there are extensive protocols for testing batteries for electrical vehicles and mobile devices, but less for large scale energy storage system and their usage cases. The working group and the Partnership more generally agree that the nascent markets for certain technologies and rapid growth make testing more important than ever as these markets continue to mature. This document also seeks to provide a set of "guideposts" to new entrants by pointing out some of the key organizations globally that are currently engaged in performance testing of energy storage systems (often batteries but the larger organizations are likely to engage in tailored tests for emerging thermal and other storage technologies).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Long-Term Corrosion Studies of Pine Derived Bio-Oil and Blends with Heavy Fuel Oil

Biomass derived liquid fuels offer a means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared to those produced by combustion of petroleum derived liquid fuels. However, the corrosivity of bio-oils toward the less expensive structural materials creates a material selection problem for designers of storage tanks and combustion systems. Samples of candidate structural materials are being exposed for thousands of hours in multiple fast pyrolysis bio-oils and conditions to evaluate the corrosion resistance of these materials. One method to mitigate the corrosivity of bio-oils and speed their adoption, while also decreasing the pollution issues associated with low quality petroleum derived fuels, is to utilize blends of bio-oil and heavy fuel oil in engines currently solely burning a petroleum-based fuel. In addition to the corrosion studies conducted in 100% bio-oil, studies were also conducted with blends of the fast pyrolysis bio-oil produced from pine tree components with a heavy fuel oil that is used in ocean-going ships. This bio-oil had a very high carboxylic acid content which made it very corrosive to carbon and 2¼ Cr-1 Mo steel and even 409 stainless steel. The heavy fuel oil was not corrosive to carbon steel, but its sulfur content makes it a significant pollution producer and particularly undesirable for use near coastlines. Corrosion tests were conducted with the individual components and with various blends of the two liquid fuels. Studies showed a significantly lower corrosivity of the blends than would be projected assuming linear mixing behavior. Adoption of such blends holds the potential to reduce production of sulfur-containing exhaust gases as well as carbon dioxide from non-renewable fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

System identity and transformation in petroleum jurisdictions: A multi-method approach for the North Slope Borough, Alaska

Capturing the multidimensionality of a bounded social-environmental system (SES) presents a range of challenges to interdisciplinary researchers due to the need to integrate divergent scientific paradigms, scalar data, and social theories. Contemporary Arctic circumpolar SESs studied under conditions of rapid and unprecedented climatic, ecological, economic, and sociopolitical change, defy any singular established methodological approach that aims to schematize and interpret the system for decision-making purposes. As a small interdisciplinary team working within a large Arctic SES modeling effort, we have found that developing systems models to support resilience in the Arctic requires an understanding of system dynamics that is attentive to holistic indicators of change, measured both quantitatively and qualitatively. Using the Alaska North Slope Borough as a case study, we apply three convergent frameworks to capture significant dimensions of the system for improved problem definition in confronting the challenges of Arctic climate change. We describe contemporary “oil and gas” social-ecological system components and dynamics, the historical processes and transformations that fundamentally altered the system, and the scientific projections for the most likely catalysts of future change. This analysis results in a typology for defining subnational Arctic hydrocarbon SESs. We conclude that the future of oil and gas development as a policy pathway in different locations experiencing rapid climate change can be evaluated when difficult-to-quantify variables are included.

Lovecraft, Amy Lauren↗

The Circular Economy Life Cycle Assessment and Visualization Framework: A Multistate Case Study of Wind Blade Circularity in United States

A circular economy (CE) aims to decouple human activities from economic activities and resource use, and its overall goal is reducing or avoiding negative environmental externalities. The newly developed Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework simulates changes in supply chain environmental impacts as it transitions toward circularity. This study expands CELAVI by incorporating detailed spatial resolution and real-world road routes connecting all facilities within the system. The case study on end-of-life decision making of wind turbine blades in the states of Iowa and Missouri explores how supply chain circularity and environmental impacts are affected by pathway costs and level of wind turbine installations. It demonstrates how high circularity costs might be beneficial for circularity transitions given revenue generated from circular pathways. Finally, impacts have important contributions to the supply chain design and thus show the importance of including detailed spatial resolution in CELAVI and CE studies in general.

circular economy↗

Data for Climate vs Energy Security: Quantifying the Trade-offs of BECCS Deployment and Overcoming Opportunity Costs on Set-Aside Land

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) sits at the nexus of the climate and energy security. We evaluated trade-offs between scenarios that support climate stabilization (negative emissions and net climate benefit) or energy security (ethanol production). Our spatially explicit model indicates that the foregone climate benefit from abandoned cropland (opportunity cost) increased carbon emissions per unit of energy produced by 14–36%, making geologic carbon capture and storage necessary to achieve negative emissions from any given energy crop. The toll of opportunity costs on the climate benefit of BECCS from set-aside land was offset through the spatial allocation of crops based on their individual biophysical constraints. Dedicated energy crops consistently outperformed mixed grasslands. We estimate that BECCS allocation to land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could capture up to 9 Tg C year–1 from the atmosphere, deliver up to 16 Tg CE year–1 in emissions savings, and meet up to 10% of the US energy statutory targets, but contributions varied substantially as the priority shifted from climate stabilization to energy provision. Our results indicate a significant potential to integrate energy security targets into sustainable pathways to climate stabilization but underpin the trade-offs of divergent policy-driven agendas.

Field Data↗