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At least 1,639 records · Page 91
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Light-duty Plug-in Electric Vehicles in China: Evolution, Competition, and Outlook

China's plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market with stocks at 7.8 million is the world's largest in 2021, and it accounts for half of the global PEV growth in 2021. The PEV market in China has dramatically evolved since the pandemic in 2020: over 20% of all new PEV sales are from China by mid-2022. Recent features of PEV market dynamics, consumer acceptance, policies, and infrastructure have important implications for both the global energy market and manufacturing stakeholders. From the perspective of demand pull-supply push, this study analyzes China's PEV industry with a market dynamics framework by reviewing sales, product and brand, infrastructure, and government policies from the last few years and outlooking the development of the new government’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025). From the demand side, small-sized sedans and compact sport utility vehicles with increased electric ranges are both popular for PEVs, and the electric range of over 60% of new battery electric vehicles in 2021 has been longer than 400 km. From the supply side, although foreign brands like Tesla are still competitive, the products by Chinese domestic automakers like BYD are becoming more attractive and cannibalizing the high-end market. However, the production capacity and cost of PEVs may be limited by the upstream of the supply chain – the battery manufacturing and supply chain inflation. In addition, it is also uncertain how much sales demand impacts will be caused by the potential global economic recession. The government firmly supports electrification and decarbonization of the vehicle industry by emphasizing the importance of the vehicle industry for promoting the greenhouse gas net zero by 2060. The dual-credit policy is regarded as the most critical regulation in a bid to restrain fuel consumption and promote PEV share. Still, the market is facing some technological obstacles, such as battery safety and driving range anxiety, before real prosperity. In addition, the Chinese electric vehicle market is seeing a trend toward the development of new technologies such as vehicle-to-X, autonomous driving, and connected vehicles.

Hao, Xu↗
DOE OSTI2019

Risk Communication and Community Resilience

Risk communication is crucial to building community resilience and reducing risk from extreme events.True community resilience involves accurate and timely dissemination of risk information to stakeholders. This book examines the policy and science of risk communication in the digital era. Themes include public awareness of risk and public participation in risk communication and resilience building. The first half of the book focuses on conceptual frameworks, components, and the role of citizens in risk communication. The second half examines the role of risk communication in resilience building and provides an overview of some of its challenges in the era of social media. This book looks at the effectiveness of risk communication in socially and culturally diverse communities in the developed and developing world.The interdisciplinary approach bridges academic research and applied policy action. Contributions from Latin America and Asia provide insight into global risk communication at a time when digital technologies have rapidly transformed conventional communication approaches. This book will be of critical interest to policy makers, academicians, and researchers, and will be a valuable reference source for university courses that focus on emergency management, risk communication, and resilience.

Kar, Bandana↗
DOE OSTI2017

Control and Cost-benefit Analysis of Fast Spreading Diseases: The case of Ebola

Mitigating the spread of infectious disease is of great importance for policy makers. Taking the recent outbreak of Ebola as an example, it was difficult for policy makers to identify the best course of action based on the cost-effectiveness of what was available. In effort to address the needs of policy makers to mitigate the spread of infectious disease before an outbreak becomes uncontrollable, we have devised a cost-benefit disease control model to simulate the effect of various control methods on disease incidence and the cost associated with each of the scenarios. Here, we present a case study of Ebola used to quantify the cost effectiveness of vaccination and isolation methods to minimize the spread of the disease. We evaluate the impact of changing strategy levels on the incidence of the disease and address the benefits of choosing one strategy over the other with regards to cost of vaccine and isolation. Disease. We use a general SEIRJ model for disease transmission. Here, S-Susceptible, E- Exposed (latent), IA– Infected (asymptomatic),IM– Infected (mild symptoms), IS– Infected (severe symptoms),JM– Isolated (mild symptoms at home), JS– Isolated (severe symptoms in hospital), and R- Recovered individuals. In this model, we consider the dynamics of the system and the effect of the relative transmissibility of isolated individuals (L) compared to other infected individuals. Cost. Ebola vaccination and treatment are very expensive and not widely available. Some preliminary data shows that it will take$73 million (M) to produce 27 M vaccines plus the cost for vaccine delivery and health care professionals (not included here). On the other hand, the treatment for Ebola in the U.S. would cost $25,000dollars a day per person to ensure proper isolation and adequate care(treatment, health care professionals, facilities and special equipment).Although not included in this research, the proper isolation of Ebola patients would also lead to a loss in hospital revenue of $148,000per day due to reduced patient capacity3. Here, we use $27,000 per individual hospitalized per day and $2.70 per person vaccinated. Model. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of control methods on disease transmission, we assessed the affect of different levels of vaccination coverage on the resulting number of infected individuals. Then, we calculated the overall estimated cost of vaccination and resulting hospitalization for each scenario to identify the lowest cost-benefit ratio. Using a base population of 10 M individuals, we ran scenarios for different levels of vaccination (μ= 0.01, 0.05, 0.1) while varying the relative transmissibility of isolated individuals (L = 0.5, 0.6, 0.65).For each combination, we calculated the incidence, vaccination and hospitalization cost per individual per day (Fig 1). We note that an increase in the relative transmissibility of isolated individuals leads to a higher number of infected people and, therefore, a reduced number of candidates for vaccination and an overall increase in cost. Since the cost of vaccination is 1 ten-thousandth of the cost of hospitalization, our results clearly show the cost-benefit of vaccinating over hospital treatment. In every scenario studied, we observed a measurable reduction in disease incidence when vaccinating a higher fraction of the population compared to isolating individuals post infection. Given these preliminary results, we plan to extend the framework of our model to a dynamic control system where we consider the cost of vaccination and isolation embedded in the system of differential equations. This approach will allow us see the best available control implementation while minimizing the cost of treatment and vaccination.

EBOLA↗
DOE OSTI2018

CERF – A Geospatial Model for Assessing Future Energy Production Technology Expansion Feasibility

Electricity system expansion planning faces significant challenges not only because of commonly modeled uncertainties such as future demand growth, fuel prices, and technology cost and performance, but also because of challenges such as climate change and carbon policies that can affect supply and demand. Changes in energy technology, natural resource availability, and population migration and growth will affect the feasibility of power plant siting, potentially hindering the achievement of policy goals. New modeling approaches are needed that couple future projections of energy system expansion with “on the ground” feasibility modeling—where both are informed by a consistent set of assumptions about future climate trends, resource availability, climate policy, socioeconomics, and environmental regulations. This research describes the development and evaluation of the Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model, a geospatial tool for scenario analysis of electricity system expansions.

grid expansion, water-energy nexus, power plant si↗
NASA NTRS1977

Organizing for low cost space transportation

The paper describes the management concepts and organizational structure NASA is establishing to operate the Space Transportation System. Policies which would encourage public and commercial organizations and private individuals to use the new STS are discussed, and design criteria for experiments, spacecraft, and other systems elements are considered. The design criteria are intented to facilitate cost reductions for space operations. NASA plans for the transition from currently used expendable launch vehicles to Shuttle use and Shuttle pricing policies are explained in detail. Hardware development is basically complete, management functions have been defined, pricing policies have been published, and procedures for user contact and services have been places into operation.

Lee, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Life cycle costing with a discount rate

This article studies life cycle costing for a capability needed for the indefinite future, and specifically investigates the dependence of optimal policies on the discount rate chosen. The two costs considered are reprocurement cost and maintenance and operations (M and O) cost. The procurement price is assumed known, and the M and O costs are assumed to be a known function, in fact, a non-decreasing function, of the time since last reprocurement. The problem is to choose the optimum reprocurement time so as to minimize the quotient of the total cost over a reprocurement period divided by the period. Or one could assume a discount rate and try to minimize the total discounted costs into the indefinite future. It is shown that the optimum policy in the presence of a small discount rate hardly depends on the discount rate at all, and leads to essentially the same policy as in the case in which discounting is not considered.

Posner, E. C.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Industrialization study

The investment process in U.S. industries was studied in order to characterize the critical elements in major high risk investment decisions. Because motivation was determined to be the greatest single factor force in inducing a company to invest in a high risk venture, the relative impact of alternative government programs and policies on personal and financial motivations were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to ascertain the effect on these programs and policies on photovoltaic industrialization. The government alternatives are ranked on the basis of their ease of implementation and their probable effect. The recommended sequence in which government policies would be applied to maximize the industrialization of the photovoltaic venture is discussed.

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NASA NTRS1983

Aeronautics and space report of the President, 1982 activities

Achievements of the space program are summerized in the area of communication, Earth resources, environment, space sciences, transportation, aeronautics, and space energy. Space program activities of the various deprtments and agencies of the Federal Government are discussed in relation to the agencies' goals and policies. Records of U.S. and world spacecraft launchings, successful U.S. launches for 1982, U.S. launched applications and scientific satellites and space probes since 1975, U.S. and Soviet manned spaceflights since 1961, data on U.S. space launch vehicles, and budget summaries are provided. The national space policy and the aeronautical research and technology policy statements are included.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1983

Optimal design and use of retry in fault tolerant real-time computer systems

A new method to determin an optimal retry policy and for use in retry of fault characterization is presented. An optimal retry policy for a given fault characteristic, which determines the maximum allowable retry durations to minimize the total task completion time was derived. The combined fault characterization and retry decision, in which the characteristics of fault are estimated simultaneously with the determination of the optimal retry policy were carried out. Two solution approaches were developed, one based on the point estimation and the other on the Bayes sequential decision. The maximum likelihood estimators are used for the first approach, and the backward induction for testing hypotheses in the second approach. Numerical examples in which all the durations associated with faults have monotone hazard functions, e.g., exponential, Weibull and gamma distributions are presented. These are standard distributions commonly used for modeling analysis and faults.

Lee, Y. H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Channel access schemes and fiber optic configurations for integrated-services local area networks

Local Area Networks are in common use for data communications and have enjoyed great success. Recently, there is a growing interest in using a single network to support many applications in addition to traditional data traffic. These additional applications introduce new requirements in terms of volume of traffic and real-time delivery of data which are not met by existing networks. To satisfy these requirements, a high-bandwidth tranmission medium, such as fiber optics, and a distributed channel access scheme for the efficient sharing of the bandwidth among the various applications are needed. As far as the throughput-delay requirements of the various application are concerned, a network structure along with a distributed channel access are proposed which incorporate appropriate scheduling policies for the transmission of outstanding messages on the network. A dynamic scheduling policy was devised which outperforms all existing policies in terms of minimizing the expected cost per message. A broadcast mechanism was devised for the efficient dissemination of all relevant information. Fiber optic technology is considered for the high-bandwidth transmisison medium.

Nassehi, M. Mehdi↗
NASA NTRS1987

The structuring of NASA launch contracts

The designing of STS Launch Services Agreements (LSAs) in order to balance the U.S. public policy concerns and the needs of domestic and foreign users is described. The subject matter of an LSA is defined by the customer's needs; when and what will be launched is also stated in the LSA. The technical requirements of the launch are contained in the Payload Integration Plan. The price for launching payloads is determined based on factors such as payload control weight and length. The allocation of risks and liability for damage to person and property involved in STS operations is examined; a cross-policy waiver governs property damage, and third-party liability coverage is required. Consideration is given to the policy governing reflying of a commercial mission in the event of an initial failure and to modified LSAs.

O'Brien, John E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Insurance and indemnification implications of future space projects

NASA options regarding insurance and indemnification policies as they relate to NASA customers and contractors are described. The foundation for the discussion is the way in which NASA is planning to return the Space Shuttle fleet to safe flight as well as current U.S. policy concerning future uses of the Shuttle fleet. Issues discussed include: the nature of the Shuttle manifest; the policy regarding property damage or destruction; insurance against liability to third parties; the reduction of the scope of the risk to be insured; NASA as the insurer; a sharing arrangement between the user and NASA; and contractors and subcontractors involved in Shuttle operations.

O'Brien, John E.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Dynamic remapping of parallel computations with varying resource demands

The issue of deciding when to invoke a global load remapping mechanism is studied. Such a decision policy must effectively weigh the costs of remapping against the performance benefits, and should be general enough to apply automatically to a wide range of computations. The authors propose a general mapping decision heuristic, then study its effectiveness and its anticipated behavior on two very different models of load evolution. Assuming only that the remapping cost is known, this policy dynamically minimizes system degradation (including the cost of remapping) for each computation step. This policy is quite simple, choosing to remap when the first local minimum in the degradation function is detected. Simulations show that the decision obtained provides significantly better performance than that achieved by never remapping. The authors also observe that the average intermapping frequency is quite close to the optimal fixed remapping frequency.

Nicol, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The 1989 long-range program plan

The President's National Space Policy of 1988 reaffirms that space activities serve a variety of vital national goals and objectives, including the strengthening of U.S. scientific, technological, political, economic, and international leadership. The new policy stresses that civil space activities contribute significantly to enhancing America's world leadership. Goals and objectives must be defined and redefined, and each advance toward a given objective must be viewed as a potential building block for future programs. This important evolutionary process for research and development is reflected, describing NASA's program planning for FY89 and later years. This plan outlines the direction of NASA's future activities by discussing goals, objectives, current programs, and plans for the future. The 1989 plan is consistent with national policy for both space and aeronautics, and with the FY89 budget that the President submitted to Congress in February 1988.

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NASA NTRS1990

The Space Station decision - Incremental politics and technological choice

Using primary documents and interviews with participants, this book describes the events that led up to the 1984 decision that NASA should build a permanently occupied, international space station in low earth orbit. The role that civil servants in NASA played in initiating the program is highlighted. The trail of the Space Station proposal as its advocates devised strategies to push it through the White House policy review process is followed. The critical analysis focuses on the way in which 'incrementalism' (the tendency of policy makers to introduce incremental changes once projects are under way) operated in connection with the Space Station program. The book calls for a commitment to a long-range space policy.

Mccurdy, Howard E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Applying the take-grant protection model

The Take-Grant Protection Model has in the past been used to model multilevel security hierarchies and simple protection systems. The models are extended to include theft of rights and sharing information, and additional security policies are examined. The analysis suggests that in some cases the basic rules of the Take-Grant Protection Model should be augmented to represent the policy properly; when appropriate, such modifications are made and their efforts with respect to the policy and its Take-Grant representation are discussed.

Bishop, Matt↗
NASA NTRS1992

NSPWG-recommended safety requirements and guidelines for SEI nuclear propulsion

An interagency Nuclear Safety Policy Working Group (NSPWG) was chartered to recommend nuclear safety policy, requirements, and guidelines for the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) nuclear propulsion program to facilitate the implementation of mission planning and conceptual design studies. The NSPWG developed a top-level policy to provide the guiding principles for the development and implementation of the nuclear propulsion safety program and the development of safety functional requirements. In addition, the NSPWG reviewed safety issues for nuclear propulsion and recommended top-level safety requirements and guidelines to address these issues. Safety requirements were developed for reactor start-up, inadvertent criticality, radiological release and exposure, disposal, entry, and safeguards. Guidelines were recommended for risk/reliability, operational safety, flight trajectory and mission abort, space debris and meteoroids, and ground test safety. In this paper the specific requirements and guidelines will be discussed.

Marshall, Albert C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Metrication report to the Congress

The principal NASA metrication activities for FY 1989 were a revision of NASA metric policy and evaluation of the impact of using the metric system of measurement for the design and construction of the Space Station Freedom. Additional studies provided a basis for focusing follow-on activity. In FY 1990, emphasis will shift to implementation of metric policy and development of a long-range metrication plan. The report which follows addresses Policy Development, Planning and Program Evaluation, and Supporting Activities for the past and coming year.

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