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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,639 records · Page 91
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Prognostic simulations of mixed-phase clouds with model AC-1D v1.0: the impact of aerosol types and freezing parameterizations on ice crystal budgets

Mixed-phase clouds at high latitudes contribute to the uncertainty in predicting cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity, mainly due to the complexity of microphysical processes that influence the partitioning between the supercooled liquid and ice phases, and hence, cloud radiative effects on regional scales. Particularly in Arctic mixed-phase clouds, the activation of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) from various aerosol populations remains a leading source of uncertainty. We developed an aerosol-cloud one-dimensional (AC-1D) model, which provides a novel framework to prognostically treat INP and ice crystal budgets while explicitly accounting for polydisperse and multicomponent aerosol that activate INPs following different freezing parameterizations. The AC-1D model is informed by large-eddy simulations to probe the impact of INP representation on predicted ice crystal number concentrations (N i ) and ice crystal budgets in mixed-phase Arctic stratus. We apply three immersion freezing (IMF) parameterizations, two time-independent (singular) and one time-dependent (classical nucleation theory), to predict the evolution of the INP reservoir and resulting ice crystal budget from polydisperse mineral dust, organic (humic-like substances), and sea spray aerosol particle size distributions. Our analysis focuses on how variations in aerosol number concentration and cloud system parameters such as cloud cooling rate, cloud-top entrainment rate, and ice crystal fall speed influence the INP reservoir and ice crystal budgets. Furthermore, this study investigates the competitive ice nucleation dynamics in mixed aerosol environments and provides a process-level quantification of the INP budget terms, which directly controls ice crystal budgets. For all studied case scenarios, the aerosol types and associated particle size distributions significantly impact INP and N i , and the choice between a time-dependent and a singular freezing description yields orders-of-magnitude differences in the predicted INP and N i over the 10 h simulation time, reflecting typical cloud lifetimes. Our results show that the influence of cloud cooling, INP entrainment, and sedimentation varies significantly depending on the chosen freezing parameterization. These findings underscore the critical need for robust IMF parameterizations and precise cloud system observations to enhance the accuracy of models in predicting mixed-phase cloud structure and evolution.

Arctic clouds↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photon–photon chemical thermodynamics of frequency conversion processes in highly multimode systems

Abstract Frequency generation in highly multimode nonlinear optical systems is inherently a complex process, giving rise to an exceedingly convoluted landscape of evolution dynamics. While predicting and controlling the global conversion efficiencies in such nonlinear environments has long been considered impossible, here, we formally address this challenge even in scenarios involving a very large number of spatial modes. By utilizing fundamental notions from optical statistical mechanics, we develop a universal theoretical framework that effectively treats all frequency components as chemical reactants/products, capable of undergoing optical thermodynamic reactions facilitated by a variety of multi-wave mixing effects. These photon–photon reactions are governed by conservation laws that directly determine the optical temperatures and chemical potentials of the ensued chemical equilibria for each frequency species. In this context, we develop a comprehensive stoichiometric model and formally derive an expression that relates the chemical potentials to the optical stoichiometric coefficients, in a manner akin to atomic/molecular chemical reactions. This advancement unlocks new predictive capabilities that can facilitate the optimization of frequency generation in highly multimode photonic arrangements, surpassing the limitations of conventional schemes that rely exclusively on nonlinear optical dynamics. Notably, we identify a universal regime of Rayleigh–Jeans thermalization where an optical reaction at near-zero optical temperatures can promote the complete and entropically irreversible conversion of light to the fundamental mode at a target frequency. Our theoretical results are corroborated by numerical simulations in settings where second-harmonic generation, sum-frequency generation and four-wave mixing processes can manifest.

Optics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deterministic incident-wave elevation prediction in intermediate water depth

Potential performance gains from optimal (non-causal) impedance-matching control of wave energy devices in irregular ocean waves are dependent on deterministic wave elevation prediction techniques that work well in practical applications. Although a number of devices are designed for operation in intermediate water depths, little work has been reported on deterministic wave prediction in such depths. Here, we investigated a deterministic wave-prediction technique based on an approximate propagation model that leads to an analytical formulation, which may be convenient to implement in practice. To improve accuracy, an approach to combine predictions based on multiple up-wave measurement points is evaluated. The overall method is tested using experimental time-series measurements recorded in the U.S. Navy MASK basin in Carderock, MD, USA. For comparison, an alternative prediction approach based on Fourier coefficients is also tested with the same data. Comparison of prediction approaches with direct measurements suggest room for improvement. Possible sources of error including tank reflections are estimated, and potential mitigation approaches are discussed.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2023

Building thermal dynamics modeling with deep transfer learning using a large residential smart thermostat dataset

Understanding thermal dynamics and obtaining the computational model of residential buildings enable its scaled application in energy retrofits, control optimization and decarbonization. In this paper, we present a deep learning approach to model building thermal dynamics with smart thermostat data collected from residential buildings, with the goal to investigate model generalizability. In the first stage, we developed and compared different Deep Learning architectures including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models and CNN-LSTM to predict indoor air temperature in a multi-step time horizon. In the second stage, we implemented a Transfer Learning (TL) process, which aims to improve the prediction performance on a new set of buildings (targets), exploiting the knowledge of related or similar buildings (sources). Different TL strategies and source model identification methods were investigated. The study showed that the CNN-LSTM performed the best among the architectures compared, with an average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.26 °C for one-hour-ahead (twelve 5-min future steps) predictions. Furthermore, the results showed that freezing the LSTM layer and fine-tuning the other layers of the CNN-LSTM achieved the best performance among four TL strategies, which further improved the performance with respect to a machine learning approach by 10%, and proving the effectiveness and generalizability of the proposed approach. A comparison of three different source model identification methods showed that randomly selecting source models constrained by similar building characteristics can provide good TL performance while retaining simplicity comparing with other quantitative source identification methods.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Anisotropic Electron Fluid Closure Validated by in Situ Spacecraft Observations in the far Exhaust of Guide-field Reconnection

Anisotropic electron heating predictions of the equations of state of Le et al. (2009); https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.102.085001 (“the EoS”) are applied to reconnection in the Earth's magnetosheath. The model is applicable to open systems where electrons are streaming along magnetic field lines into the reconnection region, sourced by fixed external reservoirs of plasma ambient to the reconnection region. While spacecraft observations have previously shown the EoS to hold in the region near the X-line, we find that for an event observed far downstream (~100 d i ) from the X-line both inflows and the exhaust follow the predictions of the EoS. Furthermore, the model underlying the EoS is extended to include additional perpendicular heating terms relevant to the considered event undergoing active magnetic compression with local electron trapping. Finally, the agreement between the spacecraft observations and the EoS emphasizes the roles of the ambient plasma sources and the dynamics of trapped and passing electrons in setting and controlling the anisotropic electron heating at large scale in naturally occurring plasma configurations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bridging 20 Years of Soil Organic Matter Frameworks: Empirical Support, Model Representation, and Next Steps

Abstract In the past few decades, there has been an evolution in our understanding of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics from one of inherent biochemical recalcitrance to one deriving from plant‐microbe‐mineral interactions. This shift in understanding has been driven, in part, by influential conceptual frameworks which put forth hypotheses about SOM dynamics. Here, we summarize several focal conceptual frameworks and derive from them six controls related to SOM formation, (de)stabilization, and loss. These include: (a) physical inaccessibility; (b) organo‐mineral and ‐metal stabilization; (c) biodegradability of plant inputs; (d) abiotic environmental factors; (e) biochemical reactivity and diversity; and (f) microbial physiology and morphology. We then review the empirical evidence for these controls, their model representation, and outstanding knowledge gaps. We find relatively strong empirical support and model representation of abiotic environmental factors but disparities between data and models for biochemical reactivity and diversity, organo‐mineral and ‐metal stabilization, and biodegradability of plant inputs, particularly with respect to SOM destabilization for the latter two controls. More empirical research on physical inaccessibility and microbial physiology and morphology is needed to deepen our understanding of these critical SOM controls and improve their model representation. The SOM controls are highly interactive and also present some inconsistencies which may be reconciled by considering methodological limitations or temporal and spatial variation. Future conceptual frameworks must simultaneously refine our understanding of these six SOM controls at various spatial and temporal scales and within a hierarchical structure, while incorporating emerging insights. This will advance our ability to accurately predict SOM dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Summary of the IAEA technical meeting on plasma disruptions and their mitigation

Here we summarize the contributions presented at the IAEA technical meeting on plasma disruptions and their mitigation, held virtually, 20–23 July 2020. The meeting brought together more than 120 experts from nuclear fusion research sites worldwide to discuss experimental, theoretical and modelling work in the field of plasma disruptions with special emphasis on developing a solid basis for possible disruption mitigation strategies in ITER and next generation fusion devices. The main topics of the meeting were: (i) disruption consequences, including electromagnetic loads, heat loads, and runaway electrons; (ii) disruption prediction and avoidance, including machine learning and physics-based approaches, and control aspects; and (iii) disruption mitigation, including shattered pellet injection, alternative techniques and general aspects of disruption mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flux Balancing Control of Ungapped Nanocrystalline Core-Based Transformer in Dual Active Bridge Converters

Transformer flux dc bias is a critical issue, impacting the reliable operation of dual active bridge (DAB) converters especially when ungapped high permeability nanocrystalline core is used. Steady state current dc bias can easily saturate ungapped nanocrystalline transformers, and it is even more dangerous in transient conditions. A dc bias model is proposed to analyze steady state dc bias in different load conditions. The magnetizing current detection is necessary for closed-loop control of dc bias; conductors' position is shown to impact sensor noise, and it is analyzed in detail. To deal with both steady state and transient dc bias, a unified flux balancing control (UFBC) is proposed introducing a predictive bias suppression (PBS) method with closed-loop flux balancing control (CFBC). With the proposed PBS, both primary/secondary current balance and flux balance can be achieved within one switching cycle using UFBC. Power characteristics and interaction between power control and flux balancing control of DAB converters are analyzed, and the CFBC needs to work in a low bandwidth due to sensor bandwidth limitation and interaction between power control and flux balancing control. Lastly, the UFBC is verified on a 300-kW cascaded DAB converter prototype.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transcriptional Control of hgcAB by an ArsR-Like Regulator in Pseudodesulfovibrio mercurii ND132

The hgcAB gene pair encodes mercury (Hg) methylation capability in a diverse group of microorganisms, but its evolution and transcriptional regulation remain unknown. Working from the possibility that the evolutionary function of HgcAB may not be Hg methylation, we test a possible link to arsenic resistance. Using model Hg methylator Pseudodesulfovibrio mercurii ND132, we evaluated transcriptional control of hgcAB by a putative ArsR encoded upstream and cotranscribed with hgcAB. This regulator shares homology with ArsR repressors of arsenic resistance and S-adenosylhomocysteine (SAH)- responsive regulators of methionine biosynthesis but is distinct from other ArsR/SahR proteins in P. mercurii. Using quantitative PCR (qPCR) and RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) transcriptome analyses, we confirmed this ArsR regulates hgcAB transcription and is responsive to arsenic and SAH. Additionally, RNA-seq indicated a possible link between hgcAB activity and arsenic transformations, with significant upregulation of other ArsRregulated arsenic resistance operons alongside hgcAB. Interestingly, wild-type ND132 was less sensitive to As(V) (but not As(III)) than an hgcAB knockout strain, supporting the idea that hgcAB may be linked to arsenic resistance. Arsenic significantly impacted rates of Hg methylation by ND132; however, responses varied with culture conditions. Differences in growth and metabolic activity did not account for arsenic impacts on methylation. While arsenic significantly increased hgcAB expression, hgcAB gene and transcript abundance was not a good predictor of Hg methylation rates. Taken together, these results support the idea that Hg and As cycling are linked in P. mercurii ND132. Our results may hold clues to the evolution of hgcAB and the controls on Hg methylation in nature. This work reveals a link between microbial mercury methylation and arsenic resistance and may hold clues to the evolution of mercury methylation genes (hgcAB). Microbes with hgcAB produce methylmercury, a strong neurotoxin that readily accumulates in the food web. This study addresses a critical gap in our understanding about the environmental factors that control hgcAB expression. We show that hgcAB expression is controlled by an ArsR-like regulator responsive to both arsenic and S-adenosylhomocysteine in our model organism, Pseudodesulfovibrio mercurii ND132. Exposure to arsenic also significantly impacted Pseudodesulfovibrio mercurii ND132 mercury methylation rates. However, expression of hgcAB was not always a good predictor of Hg methylation rates, highlighting the roles of Hg bioavailability and other biochemical mechanisms in methylmercury production. This study improves our understanding of the controls on hgcAB expression, which is needed to better predict environmental methylmercury production

RNA-seq↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observation of four-top-quark production in the multilepton final state with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents the observation of four-top-quark ($t$$\overline{t}$$t$$\overline{t}$) production in proton-proton collisions at the LHC. The analysis is performed using an integrated luminosity of 140 fb -1 at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected using the ATLAS detector. Events containing two leptons with the same electric charge or at least three leptons (electrons or muons) are selected. Event kinematics are used to separate signal from background through a multivariate discriminant, and dedicated control regions are used to constrain the dominant backgrounds. The observed (expected) significance of the measured $t$$\overline{t}$$t$$\overline{t}$ signal with respect to the standard model (SM) background-only hypothesis is 6.1 (4.3) standard deviations. The $t$$\overline{t}$$t$$\overline{t}$ production cross section is measured to be ${22.5}^{+6.6}_{-5.5}$, consistent with the SM prediction of 12.0 ± 2.4 fb within 1.8 standard deviations. Data are also used to set limits on the three-top-quark production cross section, being an irreducible background not measured previously, and to constrain the top-Higgs Yukawa coupling and effective field theory operator coefficients that affect $t$$\overline{t}$$t$$\overline{t}$ production.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Modeling Input Parameters on Wind Turbine Loads in Deterministic Transient Load Cases

Aero-hydro-elastic-servo numerical models used to design and analyze wind turbines are based on thousands of variable input parameters that dictate the inflow, aerodynamic, structural, and control characteristics of the system as well as sea state, hydrodynamic, and mooring characteristics for fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines. Each of these parameters has some level of uncertainty, which can significantly impact the predicted loads. Understanding the uncertainty in the inputs is critical to understanding the uncertainty in the outputs. This work demonstrates a screening technique to identify which parameters ultimate loads are most sensitive to so that more focus can be given to quantifying the possible range of those parameters. This technique has been demonstrated previously for different turbine and load case types and is extended here for a floating offshore wind turbine in design load cases with transient events both in the inflow and operations. Each load case features a deterministic gust, including variations in wind speed, direction, and shear. Load cases are considered with an operating turbine as well as with prescribed fault, startup, and shutdown procedures. The study found that key input parameters with a large impact on loads include the length of the gust, the magnitude of direction change and speed in the gust, the initial wind speed, and the shape of the gust profile.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Validation of a Command and Control Traffic Detection Model

Network intrusion detection systems (NIDS) are commonly used to detect malware communications, including command-and-control (C2) traffic from botnets. NIDS performance assessments have been studied for decades, but mathematical modeling has rarely been used to explore NIDS performance. This paper details a mathematical model that describes a NIDS performing packet inspection and its detection of malware's C2 traffic. Here, the paper further describes an emulation testbed and a set of cyber experiments that used the testbed to validate the model. These experiments included a commonly used NIDS (Snort) and traffic with contents from a pervasive malware (Emotet). Results are presented for two scenarios: a nominal scenario and a “stressed” scenario in which the NIDS cannot process all incoming packets. Model and experiment results match well, with model estimates mostly falling within 95 % confidence intervals on the experiment means. Model results were produced 70-3000 times faster than the experimental results. Consequently, the model's predictive capability could potentially be used to support decisions about NIDS configuration and effectiveness that require high confidence results, quantification of uncertainty, and exploration of large parameter spaces. Furthermore, the experiments provide an example for how emulation testbeds can be used to validate cyber models that include stochastic variability.

mathematical model↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predictive Models and Novel Accelerated Tests for the Reliability of Cell Metallization and Solder Joints in Photovoltaic Modules

Interconnect, solder, and metallization-related failures are the primary reason for premature Si-based photovoltaic panel failure [1, 2] and can lead to a cascade of other failures, including thermal events. This combination of high severity and high occurrence means that understanding interconnect-related failures is key to the long-term health of the photovoltaic industry, and it is crucial that the industry adopt efficient and effective tests that aid in design-for-reliability and manufacturing quality control.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning to predict biomass sorghum yields under future climate scenarios

Crop yield modeling is critical in the design of national strategies for agricultural production, particularly in the context of a changing climate. Forecasting yields of bioenergy crops at fine spatial resolutions can help to evaluate near-term and long-term pathways for scaling up bio-based fuel and chemical production, and for understanding the impacts of abiotic stressors such as severe droughts and temperature extremes on potential biomass supply. In this work we used a large dataset of 28,364 Sorghum bicolor yield samples (uniquely identified by county and year of observation), environmental variables, and multiple approaches to analyze historical trends in sorghum productivity across the USA. We selected the most accurate machine learning approach (a variation of the random forest approach) to predict future trends in sorghum yields under four greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios and two irrigation regimes. We identified irrigation practices, vapor pressure deficit, and time (a proxy for technological improvement) as the most important predictors of sorghum productivity. Our results showed a decreasing trend of sorghum yields over future years (on average 2.7% from 2018 to 2099), with greater decline under a high GHG emissions scenario (3.8%) and in the absence of irrigation (4.6%). Geographically, we observed the steepest predicted declines in the Great Lakes (8.2%), Upper Midwest (7.5%), and Heartland (6.7%) regions. Our study demonstrates the use of machine learning to identify environmental controllers of sorghum biomass yield and predict yields with reasonable accuracy. These results can inform the development of more realistic biomass supply projections for bioenergy if sorghum production is scaled up. (c) 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal conductivity of 3D-printed block-copolymer-inspired structures

This study primarily focuses on examining the impact that geometric structure has on thermal conductivity of multi-phase constructs in different 3D-printed poly(lactic acid), PLA, samples. The investigated structures are inspired by morphologies formed by diblock copolymers: lamellae, hexagonally packed cylinders, and gyroid. This research also investigates how volume percentage and material combination influence the thermal conductivity of these structures. Further, the samples can be tailored to simulate various thermal management structures observed in practical applications, such as thermal interface materials in electronic devices. Thermal conductivity ratio is controlled using air, the least conductive material at 0.026 W/(m K), PLA at 0.136 W/(m K), and thermal paste at 5.11 W/(m K). Different models were tested against thermal conductivity measurements in order to capture the effect of material type (PLA-Air versus PLA-Thermal Paste), volume percentage, structure, and orientation. Simple, effective medium models were good predictions of thermal conductivity in lamellar structures, but it was necessary to develop models for conduction through cylindrical and gyroid structures. Finally, all results were normalized to find a universal model that is independent of structure and material. This approach provides a simple method to predict how to reduce or enhance transport properties and heat management capabilities of 3D printed objects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cyber threat assessment of machine learning driven autonomous control systems of nuclear power plants

We report advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber–physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Data and Prediction Quality of High-Throughput Perovskite Synthesis with Model Fusion

Combinatorial fusion analysis (CFA) is an approach for combining multiple scoring systems using the rank-score characteristic function and cognitive diversity measure. One example is to combine diverse machine learning models to achieve better prediction quality. In this work, we apply CFA to the synthesis of metal halide perovskites containing organic ammonium cations via inverse temperature crystallization. Using a data set generated by high-throughput experimentation, four individual models (support vector machines, random forests, weighted logistic classifier, and gradient boosted trees) were developed. We characterize each of these scoring systems and explore 66 possible combinations of the models. When measured by the precision on predicting crystal formation, the majority of the combination models improves the individual model results. The best combination models outperform the best individual models by 3.9 percentage points in precision. In addition to improving prediction quality, we demonstrate how the fusion models can be used to identify mislabeled input data and address issues of data quality. In particular, we identify example cases where all single models and all fusion models do not give the correct prediction. Experimental replication of these syntheses reveals that these compositions are sensitive to modest temperature variations across the different locations of the heating element that can hinder or enhance the crystallization process. In summary, we demonstrate that model fusion using CFA can not only identify a previously unconsidered influence on reaction outcome but also be used as a form of quality control for high-throughput experimentation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Terrestrial carbon dynamics in an era of increasing wildfire

In an increasingly flammable world, wildfire is altering the terrestrial carbon balance. However, the degree to which novel wildfire regimes disrupt biological function remains unclear. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of above and below ground processes that govern carbon loss and recovery across diverse ecosystems. In this study, we find that intensifying wildfire regimes are increasingly exceeding biological thresholds of resilience, causing ecosystems to convert to a lower carbon-carrying capacity. Growing evidence suggests that plants compensate for fire damage by allocating carbon below ground to access nutrients released by fire, while wildfire selects for microbial communities with rapid growth rates and the ability to metabolize pyrolyzed carbon. Determining controls on carbon dynamics following wildfire requires integration of experimental and modeling frameworks across scales and ecosystems. Fire severity is expected to increase as a result of warming. This will potentially amplify climate change due to its impact on the carbon cycle. This Review discusses ecosystem carbon loss and recovery following wildfire, and highlights where further work is needed to inform model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗