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At least 1,639 records · Page 91

Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.

AMI data↗

Ring baffle pressure distribution and slosh damping in large cylindrical tanks

An investigation was conducted to determine the pressure loads and damping associated with rigid ring baffles in relatively large cylindrical tanks. The radial and circumferential pressure distribution, as well as the damping, was measured on a ring baffle subjected to fundamental antisymmetric slosh in a 284-cm-diameter rigid tank. Experimental and analytical data are presented as a function of slosh velocity or amplitude, baffle spacing, and baffle locations both above and below the liquid surface. Results suggest that pressure distributions and damping values can be determined from available theories for the design of single and multiple baffle configurations.

Scholl, H. F.↗

Reliability and Safety Assessment of Urban Air Mobility Concept Vehicles

The following work was commissioned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to guide industry and future regulation related to urban air mobility (UAM). Prior studies compared the relative safety of NASA concept vehicles, Figure ES1, designed for UAM and provided recommendations for industry research, aircraft architectural improvements, and regulatory updates. After the prior study completed, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) released regulatory guidance in the form of a special condition (SC), SC-VTOL-01, for multirotors with distributed propulsion and flight controls (DPFC). The objective of the current work was to develop DPFC architectures that will comply with SC-VTOL-01. Vehicle designs, DPFC architectures, and stability & control (S&C) models were developed to find limitations and trends to guide industry. To guide this task, NASA developed quad, hex, and an octorotor to better define vehicle attributes and trade space. Aircraft for study included electric, hybrid-electric, and turboshaft powerplants and collective and RPM control schemes. Assessments are in terms of the safety level achieved, and/or aircraft component/features needed to meet SC-VTOL-01. The most challenging criteria being the catastrophic failure rate, ≤10-9 catastrophic failures per flight hour, and that no single failures may result in a catastrophic event. A disciplined process was followed, similar to that in Aerospace Recommended Practice (ARP) 4761. A preliminary system safety assessment (PSSA) leveraged prior work as a basis of creating failure rate budgets for system design teams. System designs were updated and iterated upon, working with reliability and safety subject matter experts to develop SC-VTOL-01 compliant designs. Design changes were reflected in updated PSSAs for initial verification of compliance. The DPFC architecture was broken into four system design teams, the (1) flight control system (FCS), (2) drive and power system, (3) thermal management system (TMS), and (4) electrical power and distribution system. The FCS including elements necessary to control the aircraft, drive and power including elements necessary to generate and transmit shaft power, the TMS including elements necessary to maintain temperature limits in all operating environments, and electrical pow-er and distribution including equipment necessary to store and transmit electrical energy. Results found that all aircraft evaluated may have paths to comply with SC-VTOL-01, Figure ES2. However, S&C models showed large power transients that must be addressed and PSSA results show that future work is needed in single load path structures, high voltage power storage and distribution, and in motor/rotor overspeed protection.

Boeing↗

Managing Uncertainty and Flexibility in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

Net load imbalances from day ahead forecasts can lead to significant grid operations costs and are expected to increase as variable renewable energy adoption grows. We propose a new wholesale market product to manage the risk of net load imbalances called Flexibility Options. This product relies on probabilistic forecasts to estimate flexibility demand and would be co-optimized in the day-ahead market. We also propose stochastic methods that enable DER and flexible load aggregators to participate in flexibility markets while considering the uncertainty in weather and occupant behavior.

day-ahead market↗

Design considerations for large space electric power systems

As power levels of spacecraft rise to the 50 to 100 kW range, it becomes apparent that low voltage (28 V) dc power distribution and management systems will not operate efficiently at these higher power levels. The concept of transforming a solar array voltage at 150 V dc into a 1000 V ac distribution system operating at 20 kHz is examined. The transformation is accomplished with series-resonant inverter by using a rotary transformer to isolate the solar array from the spacecraft. The power can then be distributed in any desired method such as three phase delta to delta. The distribution voltage can be easily transformed to any desired load voltage and operating frequency. The reasons for the voltage limitations on the solar array due to plasma interactions and the many advantages of a high voltage, high frequency at distribution system are discussed.

Renz, D. D.↗

Probabilistic assessment of space trusses subjected to combined mechanical and thermal loads

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated to quantify the range of uncertainties of buckling loads and member forces due to nonuniform thermal loads, applied loads and moments (mechanical loads), and combination of both. The truss members are assumed to be made from Aluminum tubes or high modulus graphite-fiber/intermediate modulus epoxy-matrix composite tubes. Cumulative distribution function results show that certain combinations of thermal loads with mechanical loads reduce the probabilistic buckling loads and increase the magnitude of the member axial forces for the aluminum truss. The same trend is observed for the composite truss as well, as however, the thermal effects on the probabilistic buckling loads and member axial forces are not as substantial as that for an aluminum truss. This can be attributed to the large differences in the values of coefficient of thermal expansion. Finally, the sensitivities associated with the uncertainties in the structural, material, and load variables (primitive variables) are investigated. They show that buckling loads and member axial forces are most sensitive to the uncertainties in spacial (geometry) variables.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

Optimal Renewable Resource Allocation and Load Scheduling of Resilient Communities

This paper presents a methodology for enhancing community resilience through optimal renewable resource allocation and load scheduling in order to minimize unserved load and thermal discomfort. The proposed control architecture distributes the computational effort and is easier to be scaled up than traditional centralized control. The decentralized control architecture consists of two layers: The community operator layer (COL) allocates the limited amount of renewable energy resource according to the power flexibility of each building. The building agent layer (BAL) addresses the optimal load scheduling problem for each building with the allowable load determined by the COL. Both layers are formulated as a model predictive control (MPC) based optimization. Simulation scenarios are designed to compare different combinations of building weighting methods and objective functions to provide guidance for real-world deployment by community and microgrid operators. The results indicate that the impact of power flexibility is more prominent than the weighting factor to the resource allocation process. Allocation based purely on occupancy status could lead to an increase of PV curtailment. Further, it is necessary for the building agent to have multi-objective optimization to minimize unserved load ratio and maximize comfort simultaneously.

model predictive control↗

2022 Peer Review Project Summary: Advanced Protection for Microgrids and DER in Secondary Networks and Meshed Distribution Systems

Although there are increasing numbers of distributed energy resources (DERs) and microgrids being deployed, current IEEE and utility standards generally strictly limit their interconnection inside secondary networks. Secondary networks are low-voltage meshed (non-radial) distribution systems that create redundancy in the path from the main grid source to each load. This redundancy provides a high level of immunity to disruptions in the distribution system, and thus extremely high reliability of electric power service. There are two main types of secondary networks, called grid and spot secondary networks, both of which are used worldwide. In the future, primary networks in distribution systems that might include looped or meshed distribution systems at the primary-voltage (mediumvoltage) level may also become common as a means for improving distribution reliability and resilience. The objective of this multiyear project is to increase the adoption of microgrids in secondary networks and meshed distribution systems by developing novel protection schemes that allow for safe reliable operation of DERs in secondary networks. We will address these challenges by working with the appropriate stakeholders of secondary network operators, protection vendors, and standards committee. The outcomes of this project include: a) development and/or demonstration of candidate methods for enabling protection of secondary networks containing high levels of DER; b) development of modeling and testing tools for protection systems designed for use with secondary networks including DERs; and c) development of new industrial partnerships to facilitate widespread results dissemination and eventual commercialization of results as appropriate.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advanced Protection for Microgrids and DER in Secondary Networks and Meshed Distribution Systems

Although there are increasing numbers of distributed energy resources (DERs) and microgrids being deployed, current IEEE and utility standards generally strictly limit their interconnection inside secondary networks. Secondary networks are low-voltage meshed (non-radial) distribution systems that create redundancy in the path from the main grid source to each load. This redundancy provides a high level of immunity to disruptions in the distribution system, and thus extremely high reliability of electric power service. There are two main types of secondary networks, called grid and spot secondary networks, both of which are used worldwide. In the future, primary networks in distribution systems that might include looped or meshed distribution systems at the primary-voltage (medium-voltage) level may also become common as a means for improving distribution reliability and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Lubrication of optimized-design tapered-roller bearings to 2.4 million DN

The performance of 120.65 mm (4.75 in.) bore high speed design, tapered roller bearings was investigated at shaft speeds to 20,000 rpm (2.4 million DN) under combined thrust and radial load. The test bearing design was computer optimized for high speed operation. Temperature distribution bearing heat generation were determined as a function of shaft speed, radial and thrust loads, lubricant flow rates, and lubricant inlet temperature. The high speed design, tapered roller bearing operated successfully at shaft speeds up to 20,000 rpm under heavy thrust and radial loads. Bearing temperatures and heat generation with the high speed design bearing were significantly less than those of a modified standard bearing tested previously. Cup cooling was effective in decreasing the high cup temperatures to levels equal to the cone temperature.

Parker, R. J.↗

Dynamic Load Balancing for Computational Plasticity on Parallel Computers

The simulation of the computational plasticity on a complex structure remains a formidable computational task, especially when a highly nonlinear, complex material model was used. It appears that the computational requirements for a such problem can only be satisfied by massively parallel architectures. In order to effectively harness the tremendous computational power provided by such architectures, it is imperative to investigate and to study the algorithmic and implementation issues pertaining to dynamic load balancing for computational plasticity on a highly parallel, distributed-memory, multiple-instruction, multiple-data computers. This paper will measure the effectiveness of the algorithms developed in handling the dynamic load balancing.

Pramono, Eddy↗

Nonlinear shell analyses of the space shuttle solid rocket boosters

A variety of structural analyses have been performed on the Solid Rocket Boosters (SRB's) to provide information that would contribute to the understanding of the failure which destroyed the Space Shuttle Challenger. This paper describes nonlinear shell analyses that were performed to characterize the behavior of an overall SRB structure and a segment of the SRB in the vicinity of the External Tank Attachment (ETA) ring. Shell finite element models were used that would accurately reflect the global load transfer in an SRB in a manner such that nonlinear shell collapse and ovalization could be assessed. The purpose of these analyses was to calculate the overall deflection and stress distributions for these SRB models when subjected to mechanical loads corresponding to critical times during the launch sequence. Static analyses of these SRB models were performed using a snapshot picture of the loads. Analytical results obtained using these models show no evidence of nonlinear shell collapse for the pre-liftoff loading cases considered.

Knight, Norman F., Jr.↗

Nonlinear shell analysis of the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Boosters

A variety of structural analyses have been performed on the Solid Rocket Boosters (SRB's) to provide information that would contribute to the understanding of the failure which destroyed the Space Shuttle Challenger. This paper describes nonlinear shell analyses that were performed to characterize the behavior of an overall SRB structure and a segment of the SRB in the vicinity of the External Tank Attachment (ETA) ring. Shell finite element models were used that would accurately reflect the global load transfer in an SRB in a manner such that nonlinear shell collapse and ovalization could be assessed. The purpose of these analyses was to calculate the overall deflection and stress distributions for these SRB models when subjected to mechanical loads corresponding to critical times during the launch sequence. Static analyses of these SRB models were performed using a 'snapshot picture' of the loads. Analytical results obtained using these models show no evidence of nonlinear shell collapse for the pre-liftoff loading cases considered.

Knight, N. F., Jr.↗

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Grid-Supportive Loads for Fast Frequency Response

Flexibility in inverter-based loads could be used to support the converter-dominated power grid by offering a rapid, autonomous, and adjustable power reserve during system transients to help maintain system stability. Based on technical potential, ancillary service (AS) value, and implementation costs, this study illustrates the cost-benefit analysis of grid-supportive loads (GSLs) for the supply of fast frequency response (FFR). The net benefit for each GSL is demonstrated using a case study and relevant data sources. The findings suggest that implementation costs for enabling GSL features are low compared to the value that grid operators get from the acquisition of responsive reserve services. The authors believe that, given the rising popularity of renewable energy sources, GSLs can be a useful tool for grid stability in low-inertia systems.

cost-benefit analysis↗

OpenSAMPL: An Open Source Library for Timing and Synchronization Measurements and Analytics

Today's power grid operators are implementing timing and synchronization solutions that provide resilience to Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) vulnerabilities. These vendor-specific solutions often come with additional software applications that are designed to monitor that vendor's synchronization performance data. However, resilient timing architectures often resulting in multi-vendor solutions, including approaches that blend terrestrial clocks with space-based subscription services. In such an environment, collecting, analyzing, and visualizing data from a variety of sources within a single platform was heretofore not possible. To address this need, the US Department of Energy's Center for Alternative Synchronization and Timing (CAST) developed OpenSAMPL, the Open Synchronized Analytics and Monitoring Platform, an open-source Python framework for processing, loading, and observing clock measurement data from distributed devices. OpenSAMPL enables the ingestion of diverse clock-probe sources into a scalable time-series database and applies robust analytics. OpenSAMPL currently supports two vendor data pipelines, and will be extended to more in the near future, enabling seamless monitoring of a variety of timing and synchronization devices in a common environment.

Grant, Josh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000163475060)↗

Data-Driven Probabilistic Voltage Risk Assessment of MiniWECC System with Uncertain PVs and Wind Generations using Realistic Data

Here, it is found from actual data that due to generation dispatch and uncertain renewable generations and loads with complicated correlations, inferring the probabilistic distributions for uncertain inputs is challenging. Many probabilistic power flow approaches have been developed in the literature but their validations using realistic systems and data are lacking. This paper proposes a data-driven probabilistic analysis approach for system risk assessment of the miniWECC system using actual data. The sparse Gaussian process (SGP) is advocated to quantify the impacts of uncertain inputs on voltage security. SGP does not need the probability distribution function of uncertain inputs, can handle correlations and is highly computationally efficient. Results on the miniWECC system using realistic data show that SGP outperforms existing approaches and is able to quantify the voltage violation risks.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Deployment of inference as a service at the US CMS Tier-2 data centers

Coprocessors, especially GPUs, will be a vital ingredient of data production workflows at the HL-LHC. At CMS, the GPU-as-a-service approach for production workflows is implemented by the SONIC project (Services for Optimized Network Inference on Coprocessors). SONIC provides a mechanism for outsourcing computationally demanding algorithms, such as neural network inference, to remote servers, where requests from multiple clients are intelligently distributed across multiple GPUs by a load-balancing service. This talk highlights the recent progress in deploying SONIC at selected U.S. CMS Tier-2 data centers. Using realistic CMS Run3 data processing workflows, such as those containing transformer-based algorithms, we demonstrate how SONIC is integrated into the production-like environment to enable accelerated inference offloading. We will present developments from both the client and server sides, including production job and data center configurations for NVIDIA and AMD GPUs. We will also present performance scaling benchmarks and discuss the challenges of operating SONIC in CMS production, such as server discovery, GPU saturation, fallback server logic, etc.

Holzman, Burt↗