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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,639 records · Page 91
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

The Response of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO

We have successfully reproduced the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) forced by observed sea surface temperatures over a 25-year period. The vertical ozone response to ENSO is consistent with changes in the Walker circulation. We derive the sensitivity of simulated ozone to ENSO variations using linear regression analysis. The western Pacific and Indian Ocean region shows similar positive ozone sensitivities from the surface to the upper troposphere, in response to positive anomalies in the Nino 3.4 Index. The eastern and central Pacific region shows negative sensitivities with the largest sensitivity in the upper troposphere. This vertical response compares well with that derived from SHADOZ ozonesondes in each region. The OEI reveals a response of tropospheric ozone to circulation change that is nearly independent of changes in emissions and thus it is potentially useful in chemistry-climate model evaluation.

Oman, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2021

3D Simulations of the Early Martian Hydrological Cycle Mediated by a H2-CO2 Greenhouse

For decades, the scientific community has been trying to reconcile abundant evidence for fluvialactivity on Noachian and early Hesperian Mars with the faint young Sun and reasonableconstraints on ancient atmospheric pressure and composition. Recently, the investigation of H2-CO2 collision-induced absorption has opened up a new avenue to warm Noachian Mars. We usethe ROCKE-3D global climate model to simulate plausible states of the ancient Martian climatewith this absorptive warming and reasonable constraints on surface paleopressure. We find that1.5-2 bar CO2-dominated atmospheres with ≥3% H2 can produce global mean surfacetemperatures above freezing, while also providing sufficient warming to avoid surfaceatmospheric CO2 condensation at 0°-45° obliquity. Simulations conducted with both moderntopography and a paleotopography, before Tharsis formed, highlight the importance of Tharsis asa cold trap for water on the planet. Additionally, we find that low obliquity (modern and 0°) ismore conducive to rainfall over valley network locations than high (45°) obliquity. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Much evidence tells us that ancient Mars had liquid water on its surface. But reconciling thatwith the fainter young Sun and reasonable constraints on Mars' early atmosphere is challenging.We use a 3D global climate model with an atmosphere containing some amount of hydrogen (apossible greenhouse gas) to study Mars' early hydrological cycle and compare it to the geologicalevidence of surface liquid water billions of years ago. We find that hydrogen and carbon dioxidetogether in an atmosphere twice as thick as modern Earth can warm early Mars above thefreezing point of water and that a low axial tilt produces rainfall patterns that best match thegeologic evidence

Scott D Guzewich↗
DOE OSTI2018

Local radiative feedbacks over the Arctic based on observed short-term climate variations

We compare various radiative feedbacks in response to short-term climate variations estimated from reanalysis, satellite, and global climate model datasets using the combined Kernel-Gregory approach over the Arctic (60-90°N). Except for the shortwave cloud feedback, all feedbacks are positive over the Arctic. Lapse rate feedback is comparable with surface albedo feedback. Relative to the tropics (30°S-30°N), the temperature feedback (lapse rate feedback plus Planck feedback deviation from its global mean) is the largest contributor to Arctic amplification among all feedbacks, followed by surface albedo feedback. The choice of meteorological fields has a small impact on the cloud feedback estimate, but different top-of-the-atmosphere clear-sky fluxes datasets can result in a wide spread of estimated cloud feedbacks. The net cloud feedback over the Arctic is positive due to a larger positive in longwave than the negative shortwave feedback, but has the largest uncertainty. Relative to the tropics, the longwave cloud feedback largely contributes to the Arctic amplification.

Zhang, Rudong↗
DOE OSTI2019

Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India

In June 2013, Uttarakhand experienced a hydro-meteorological disaster due to a 4 d extreme precipitation event of return period more than 100 years, claiming thousands of lives and causing enormous damage to infrastructure. Using the weather@home climate modelling system and its Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts simulations, this study investigates the change in the return period of similar events in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer world, compared to current and pre-industrial levels. We find that the likelihood of such extreme precipitation events will significantly increase under both future scenarios. We also estimate the change in extreme river flow at the Ganges; finding a considerable increase in the risk of flood events. Our results also suggest that until now, anthropogenic aerosols may have effectively counterbalanced the otherwise increased meteorological flood risk due to greenhouse gas (GHG) induced warming. Disentangling the response due to GHGs and aerosols is required to analyses the changes in future rainfall in the South Asia monsoon region. More research with other climate models is also necessary to make sure these results are robust.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Fitting Formulae and Constraints for the Existence of S-type and P-type Habitable Zones in Binary Systems

We derive fitting formulae for the quick determination of the existence of S-type and P-type habitable zones (HZs) in binary systems. Based on previous work, we consider the limits of the climatological HZ in binary systems (which sensitively depend on the system parameters) based on a joint constraint encompassing planetary orbital stability and a habitable region for a possible system planet. Additionally, we employ updated results on planetary climate models obtained by Kopparapu and collaborators. Our results are applied to four P-type systems (Kepler-34, Kepler-35, Kepler-413, and Kepler-1647) and two S-type systems (TrES-2 and KOI-1257). Our method allows us to gauge the existence of climatological HZs for these systems in a straightforward manner with detailed consideration of the observational uncertainties. Further applications may include studies of other existing systems as well as systems to be identified through future observational campaigns.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revisiting the Role of Ocean Circulation Changes in Polar Ocean Heat Transport Anomalies under Global Warming

In response to greenhouse gas forcing, climate models predict that poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) weakens in the Southern Ocean but increases in the Arctic. The role of ocean circulation changes in this OHT response has been evaluated by decomposing OHT anomalies into a dynamic component (holding ocean temperature fixed while circulation evolves) and a thermodynamic component (holding ocean circulation fixed while temperature evolves). However, ocean temperature changes are themselves shaped by circulation changes through redistribution of the existing heat reservoir and subsequent effects on air–sea heat fluxes. The thermodynamic component can therefore be influenced by circulation changes, making the standard thermodynamic–dynamic decomposition incomplete for isolating the role of circulation changes in OHT anomalies. To address this issue, we use a passive–active decomposition to assess the relative contributions of ocean circulation and passive ocean temperature changes to polar OHT anomalies in a fully coupled climate model. Passive temperature changes are defined as those thermally forced by the atmosphere in the absence of circulation changes. In this passive–active decomposition, an advective term involving both circulation and passive temperature changes remains ambiguous—classifying it as active implies circulation changes dominate Southern Ocean OHT anomalies, whereas classifying it as passive implies temperature changes dominate. However, both interpretations imply that ocean circulation changes have a much weaker effect on polar OHT anomalies than inferred from the standard decomposition. In conclusion, these results help reconcile conclusions from studies using the standard decomposition with those using passive tracer methods to assess the role of circulation changes in polar OHT anomalies.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2014

Soot superaggregates from flaming wildfires and their direct radiative forcing

Wildfires contribute significantly to global soot emissions, yet their aerosol formation mechanisms and resulting particle properties are poorly understood and parameterized in climate models. The conventional view holds that soot is formed via the cluster-dilute aggregation mechanism in wildfires and emitted as aggregates with fractal dimension Df < 1.8 mobility diameter Dm # 1 mm, and aerodynamic diameter Da# 300 nm. Here we report the ubiquitous presence of soot superaggregates (SAs) in the outflow from a major wildfire in India. SAs are porous, low-density aggregates of cluster-dilute aggregates with characteristic Df< 2.6, Dm . 1 mm, and Da# 300 nm that form via the cluster-dense aggregation mechanism. We present additional observations of soot SAs in wildfire smoke-laden air masses over Northern California, New Mexico, and Mexico City. We estimate that SAs contribute, per unit optical depth, up to 35% less atmospheric warming than freshly-emitted (Df < 1.8) aggregates, and <90% more warming than the volume-equivalent spherical soot particles simulated in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Time-Varying Changes in the Simulated Structure of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) over the past 55 years. When trends are computed over the past 55 years, the BDC accelerates throughout the stratosphere, consistent with previous modeling results. However, over the second half of the simulations (i.e., since the late 1980s), the model simulates structural changes in the BDC as the temporal evolution of the BDC varies between regions in the stratosphere. In the mid-stratosphere in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere, the BDC does not accelerate in the ensemble mean of our simulations despite increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and warming sea surface temperatures, and it even decelerates in one ensemble member. This deceleration is reminiscent of changes inferred from satellite instruments and in situ measurements. In contrast, the BDC in the lower stratosphere continues to accelerate. The main forcing agents for the recent slowdown in the mid-stratosphere appear to be declining ozone-depleting substance (ODS) concentrations and the timing of volcanic eruptions. Changes in both mean age of air and the tropical upwelling of the residual circulation indicate a lack of recent acceleration. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that climate models simulate a decreasing age throughout the stratosphere only applies over long time periods and is not necessarily the case for the past 25 years, when most tracer measurements were taken.

stratospheric ozone↗
DOE OSTI2019

Stochastic Parameterization of Subgrid-Scale Velocity Enhancement of Sea Surface Fluxes

Abstract Subgrid-scale (SGS) velocity variations result in gridscale sea surface flux enhancements that must be parameterized in weather and climate models. Traditional parameterizations are deterministic in that they assign a unique value of the SGS velocity flux enhancement to any given configuration of the resolved state. In this study, we assess the statistics of SGS velocity flux enhancement over a range of averaging scales (as a proxy for varying model resolution) through systematic coarse-graining of a convection-permitting atmospheric model simulation over the Indian Ocean and west Pacific warm pool. Conditioning the statistics of the SGS velocity flux enhancement on 1) the fluxes associated with the resolved winds and 2) the precipitation rate, we find that the lack of a separation between “resolved” and “unresolved” scales results in a distribution of flux enhancements for each configuration of the resolved state. That is, the SGS velocity flux enhancement should be represented stochastically rather than deterministically. The spatial and temporal statistics of the SGS velocity flux enhancement are investigated by using basic descriptive statistics and through a fit to an anisotropic space–time covariance structure. Potential spatial inhomogeneities of the statistics of the SGS velocity flux enhancement are investigated through regional analysis, although because of the relatively short duration of the simulation (9 days) distinguishing true inhomogeneity from sampling variability is difficult. Perspectives for the implementation of such a stochastic parameterization in weather and climate models are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Dependence of marine stratocumulus reflectivities on liquid water paths

Simple parameterizations that relate cloud liquid water content to cloud reflectivity are often used in general circulation climate models to calculate the effect of clouds in the earth's energy budget. Such parameterizations have been developed by Stephens (1978) and by Slingo and Schrecker (1982) and others. Here researchers seek to verify the parametric relationship through the use of simultaneous observations of cloud liquid water content and cloud reflectivity. The column amount of cloud liquid was measured using a microwave radiometer on San Nicolas Island following techniques described by Hogg et al., (1983). Cloud reflectivity was obtained through spatial coherence analysis of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery data (Coakley and Beckner, 1988). They present the dependence of the observed reflectivity on the observed liquid water path. They also compare this empirical relationship with that proposed by Stephens (1978). Researchers found that by taking clouds to be isotropic reflectors, the observed reflectivities and observed column amounts of cloud liquid water are related in a manner that is consistent with simple parameterizations often used in general circulation climate models to determine the effect of clouds on the earth's radiation budget. Attempts to use the results of radiative transfer calculations to correct for the anisotropy of the AVHRR derived reflectivities resulted in a greater scatter of the points about the relationship expected between liquid water path and reflectivity. The anisotropy of the observed reflectivities proved to be small, much smaller than indicated by theory. To critically assess parameterizations, more simultaneous observations of cloud liquid water and cloud reflectivities and better calibration of the AVHRR sensors are needed.

Coakley, James A., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model

Decadal climate predictability has received considerable scientific interest in recent years, yet the limits and mechanisms for decadal predictability are currently not well known. It is widely accepted that noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics at the air-sea interface influences predictability. The purpose of this paper is to use the interactive ensemble (IE) coupling strategy to quantify how internal atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface impacts decadal predictability. The IE technique can significantly reduce internal atmospheric noise and has proven useful in assessing seasonal-to-interannual variability and predictability. Here we focus on decadal timescales and apply the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method to the Community Climate System Model comparing control simulations with IE simulations. This is the first time the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent has been applied to the state-of-the-art coupled models. The global patterns of decadal predictability are discussed from the perspective of internal atmospheric noise and ocean dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of a New Cloud Microphysics Parameterization on the Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems in E3SM

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are one of the most climatically significant forms of convection because of their large role in water and energy cycles. The mesoscale features associated with MCS are difficult to represent in climate models because the relevant dynamics and physics are absent or poorly represented with coarse model resolution (∼100 km). Using a regionally refined model (RRM) with 0.25° grid spacing embedded in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we explore the impact of cloud microphysics parameterizations on the simulation of precipitation, particularly MCS precipitation over the contiguous United States. The Predicted Particle Properties (P3) cloud microphysics scheme has been modified and implemented into E3SM to overcome the limitations of the default Morrison and Gettelman (MG2) scheme in which rimed precipitating ice particles (graupel/hail) are absent and frozen particles are artificially partitioned into cloud ice and snow. We show that P3 improves the simulation of precipitation statistics including frequency distribution compared with MG2 with a limited effect on the diurnal cycle. P3 predicts higher hourly rain rates, resulting in 20% more MCSs and a higher total MCS precipitation (4.4%) compared to MG2, agreeing better with observations. The improvements with P3 mainly result from improved representations of ice microphysics, which not only produces higher rain rates through melting but also leads to a stronger large‐scale ascending motion by releasing more latent heating. This study suggests that improving microphysics parameterization is important for simulating MCS precipitation as future climate model resolutions continue to increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing the contribution of bioaerosols diversity from complex aerosol particle samples.

Current global change scenarios expect to significantly increase the contribution of pollen to the total organic aerosol budget. In addition, pollen can burst into smaller fragments that are highly efficient as cloud condensation nuclei. However, current climate models still do not incorporate the effects of these particles due to detection and quantification challenges in complex aerosol mixtures. Chemical biomarkers (i.e. fructose) have commonly been used to trace pollen but this approximation can generate false positive results given the large number of shared compounds between different bioaerosols. A previous pilot EMSL experiment performed on pure pollen samples suggested that using a set of metabolites as a fingerprint of bioaerosols could serve to substantially increase detection accuracy over single biomarker approaches. In this proposal we developed novel bioinformatic strategies to characterize and quantify complex pollen mixtures present in the atmosphere. For that, we used diverse machine learning algorithms to analyze metabolic fingerprints from complex mixtures of different pollen acquired with high-resolution mass spectrometry (Orbitrap Q-Exactive). Our preliminary results demonstrated the potential to accurately discern and identify at specific relative abundances different pollen species in complex mixtures. Our research will lead to a significant advancement in the atmospheric chemistry and provide much needed data to improve the accuracy of climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the uncertainty of long-period return values of extreme daily precipitation

Methods for calculating return values of extreme precipitation and their uncertainty are compared using daily precipitation rates over the Western U.S. and Southwestern Canada from a large ensemble of climate model simulations. The roles of return-value estimation procedures and sample size in uncertainty are evaluated for various return periods. We compare two different generalized extreme value (GEV) parameter estimation techniques, namely L-moments and maximum likelihood (MLE), as well as empirical techniques. Even for very large datasets, confidence intervals calculated using GEV techniques are narrower than those calculated using empirical methods. Furthermore, the more efficient L-moments parameter estimation techniques result in narrower confidence intervals than MLE parameter estimation techniques at small sample sizes, but similar best estimates. It should be noted that we do not claim that either parameter fitting technique is better calibrated than the other to estimate long period return values. While a non-stationary MLE methodology is readily available to estimate GEV parameters, it is not for the L-moments method. Comparison of uncertainty quantification methods are found to yield significantly different estimates for small sample sizes but converge to similar results as sample size increases. Finally, practical recommendations about the length and size of climate model ensemble simulations and the choice of statistical methods to robustly estimate long period return values of extreme daily precipitation statistics and quantify their uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

BSSD 2019 Performance Metric – End-of-year summary report

The LANL Science Focus Area program in Terrestrial Microbial Carbon Cycling aims to inform climate modeling and enable carbon management in terrestrial ecosystems. To achieve these aims, the program develops and uses community genomics approaches to discover widespread biological processes that control carbon storage and release in temperate biome soils. The first nine years of the program focused on developing and applying community genomics approaches to examine the composition, spatiotemporal variability, and response of soil microbial communities in two biomes to environmental changes that alter carbon cycling (e.g., elevated atmospheric CO 2 , nitrogen fertilization, and drought). Owing to persistent inability to distinguish cosmetic from functionally consequential responses, the SFA recently shifted research strategy. The new research strategy focuses on soil microbial communities that drive differences in carbon cycling within the same environment. With this approach, there is an inherent cause-effect relationship between microbial community composition and ecosystem function. This approach is revealing core micro-organisms and interactions at different scales (molecular to ecosystem-level) that drive contrasting patterns of carbon cycling. Elaborating processes that shape the composition and function of soil microbial communities driving terrestrial carbon cycling will accelerate progress toward more accurate climate models and strategies for terrestrial carbon sequestration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Increased absorption by coarse aerosol particles over the Gangetic–Himalayan region

Each atmospheric aerosol type has distinctive light-absorption characteristics related to its physical/chemical properties. Climate models treat black carbon as the main light-absorbing component of carbonaceous atmospheric aerosols, while absorption by some organic aerosols is also considered, particularly at ultraviolet wavelengths. Most absorbing aerosols are assumed to be < 1 μm in diameter (sub-micron). Here we present results from a recent field study in India, primarily during the post-monsoon season (October–November), suggesting the presence of absorbing aerosols sized 1–10 μm. Absorption due to super-micron-sized particles was nearly 30% greater than that due to smaller particles. Periods of increased absorption by larger particles ranged from a week to a month. Radiative forcing calculations under clear-sky conditions show that super-micron particles account for nearly 44% of the total aerosol forcing. The origin of the large aerosols is unknown, but meteorological conditions indicate that they are of local origin. Such economic and habitation conditions exist throughout much of the developing world. Furthermore, large absorbing particles could be an important component of the regional-scale atmospheric energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Recent intensification of winter haze in China linked to foreign emissions and meteorology

Wintertime aerosol pollution in Northern China has increased over the past several decades as anthropogenic emissions in China have increased, and has increased dramatically since the beginning of the 21st century, but the causes and their quantitative contributions remain uncertain. Here we use an aerosol source tagging capability implemented in a global aerosol-climate model to assess long-term trends of PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter) in Northern China. Our analysis suggests that increasing PM2.5 concentrations due to local emission increases within China were obscured (~13%) by foreign emission reductions between 1980–2000. As foreign emissions stabilized during 2000-2014, their counteracting effect almost disappeared, uncovering China’s pollution potential from domestic emission increases. The meteorology dominated PM2.5 trend during 1990–1996 and also uncovered the pollution potential due to decadal variations in winds. The stabilized foreign emissions together with changing meteorology explain a quarter of the larger increasing trend of PM2.5 since the beginning of the 21st century. Future foreign emissions are not expected to help hiding China’s pollution, reductions in local emissions are the efficient way to improve future air quality in Northern China.

Yang, Yang↗
NASA NTRS1978

The effect of ground hydrology on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

A zonally averaged climate model is used to investigate the effects of different evaporation parameterizations on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations. The model is based on the annual mean zonally averaged hemispheric climate model of Ohring and Adler (1978), with some modifications on the heating parameterizations. The dynamic model utilizes the two-level quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equations. The heating processes are related to solar radiation, long-wave radiation, convection, evaporation, latent heat release, and ocean transport. Evaporation parameterization has been improved by using a nonlinear formulation in which the Bowen ratio is determined by the vertical gradients of water vapor and temperature near the earth's surface.

Chow, S.-H.↗