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At least 1,621 records · Page 90

Lightning Tracking Tool for Assessment of Total Cloud Lightning within AWIPS II

Total lightning (intra‐cloud and cloud‐to‐ground) has been widely researched and shown to be a valuable tool to aid real‐time warning forecasters in the assessment of severe weather potential of convective storms. The trend of total lightning has been related to the strength of a storm's updraft. Therefore a rapid increase in total lightning signifies the strengthening of the parent thunderstorm. The assessment of severe weather potential occurs in a time limited environment and therefore constrains the use of total lightning. A tool has been developed at NASA's Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center to assist in quickly analyzing the total lightning signature of multiple storms. The development of this tool comes as a direct result of forecaster feedback from numerous assessments requesting a real‐time display of the time series of total lightning. This tool also takes advantage of the new architecture available within the AWIPS II environment. SPoRT's lightning tracking tool has been tested in the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Program and significant changes have been made based on the feedback. In addition to the updates in response to the HWT assessment, the lightning tracking tool may also be extended to incorporate other requested displays, such as the intra‐cloud to cloud‐to‐ground ratio as well as incorporate the lightning jump algorithm.

Burks, Jason E.↗

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

Launch Control System Master Console Event Message Reduction

System monitoring and control (SMC) message browsers receive so many messages daily that operators do not need to see. Important messages are often mixed up among the less important ones. My job is to reduce the messages displayed in the message browser so that warning and emergency messages can be seen easily and therefore, responded promptly. There are multiple methods to achieve this. Firstly, duplicate messages should not appear many times in the message browser. Instead, the message should appear only once but with a number that counts the times that it appears. This method is called duplicate message suppression. Secondly, messages that update the most recent state (e.g. up/down) of a component should replace the old-state messages. This method is called state based message correlation. Thirdly, messages that display "normal" alarm level should be suppressed unless it's a response to an operator action. In addition to message reduction, I also work on correcting the severity level and text formats on messages.

messages↗

A Sounding-based Severe Weather Tool to Support Daily Operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Hail↗

LCS Master Console Event Message Reduction

System monitoring and control (SMC) message browsers receive so many messages daily that operators are unable to keep track all of them. Important messages are often mixed up among the less important ones. My job is to reduce the messages so that warning and emergency messages can be seen easily and therefore, responded promptly. There are multiple methods to achieve this. Firstly, messages that look the same should not appear many times in the message browser. Instead, the message should appear only once but with a number that counts the times that it appears. This method is called duplicate message suppression. Messages that display "normal" or "advisory" alarm level should be suppressed. Secondly, messages that update the most recent status of a system should replace the old-status messages. This method is called state based message correlation. Thirdly, some unnecessary messages should be sent straight to history after being displayed or not displayed at all. For an example, normal messages that are not a response to an operator's action should not be displayed. I also work on fixing messages that are not color-coded and formatted properly.

messages↗

The Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Tropopause folds are identified by warm, dry, high-potential vorticity, ozone-rich air and are one explanation for damaging non-convective wind events. Could improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated tropopause folding improve non-convective wind forecasts and high wind warnings? The goal of this study is to assess the impact of assimilating Hyperspectral Infrared (IR) profiles on forecasting stratospheric air, tropopause folds, and associated non-convective winds: (1) AIRS: Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (2) IASI: Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (3) CrIMSS: Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite

Brendt. Emily↗

A Comparison of Perturbed Initial Conditions and Multiphysics Ensembles in a Severe Weather Episode in Spain

Ensembles of numerical model forecasts are of interest to operational early warning forecasters as the spread of the ensemble provides an indication of the uncertainty of the alerts, and the mean value is deemed to outperform the forecasts of the individual models. This paper explores two ensembles on a severe weather episode in Spain, aiming to ascertain the relative usefulness of each one. One ensemble uses sensible choices of physical parameterizations (precipitation microphysics, land surface physics, and cumulus physics) while the other follows a perturbed initial conditions approach. The results show that, depending on the parameterizations, large differences can be expected in terms of storm location, spatial structure of the precipitation field, and rain intensity. It is also found that the spread of the perturbed initial conditions ensemble is smaller than the dispersion due to physical parameterizations. This confirms that in severe weather situations operational forecasts should address moist physics deficiencies to realize the full benefits of the ensemble approach, in addition to optimizing initial conditions. The results also provide insights into differences in simulations arising from ensembles of weather models using several combinations of different physical parameterizations.

severe weather↗

A System for Fault Management and Fault Consequences Analysis for NASA's Deep Space Habitat

NASA's exploration program envisions the utilization of a Deep Space Habitat (DSH) for human exploration of the space environment in the vicinity of Mars and/or asteroids. Communication latencies with ground control of as long as 20+ minutes make it imperative that DSH operations be highly autonomous, as any telemetry-based detection of a systems problem on Earth could well occur too late to assist the crew with the problem. A DSH-based development program has been initiated to develop and test the automation technologies necessary to support highly autonomous DSH operations. One such technology is a fault management tool to support performance monitoring of vehicle systems operations and to assist with real-time decision making in connection with operational anomalies and failures. Toward that end, we are developing Advanced Caution and Warning System (ACAWS), a tool that combines dynamic and interactive graphical representations of spacecraft systems, systems modeling, automated diagnostic analysis and root cause identification, system and mission impact assessment, and mitigation procedure identification to help spacecraft operators (both flight controllers and crew) understand and respond to anomalies more effectively. In this paper, we describe four major architecture elements of ACAWS: Anomaly Detection, Fault Isolation, System Effects Analysis, and Graphic User Interface (GUI), and how these elements work in concert with each other and with other tools to provide fault management support to both the controllers and crew. We then describe recent evaluations and tests of ACAWS on the DSH testbed. The results of these tests support the feasibility and strength of our approach to failure management automation and enhanced operational autonomy

System Effects Analysis↗

Advanced Extravehicular Mobility Unit Informatics Software Design

This is a description of the software design for the 2013 edition of the Advanced Extravehicular Mobility Unit (AEMU) Informatics computer assembly. The Informatics system is an optional part of the space suit assembly. It adds a graphical interface for displaying suit status, timelines, procedures, and caution and warning information. In the future it will display maps with GPS position data, and video and still images captured by the astronaut.

extravehicular mobility units↗

Design and Development of Functionally Effective Human-Machine Interfaces for Firing Room Displays

This project involves creating software for support equipment used on the Space Launch System (SLS). The goal is to create applications and displays that will be used to remotely operate equipment from the firing room and will continue to support the SLS launch vehicle to the extent of its program. These displays include design practices that help to convey information effectively, such as minimizing distractions at normal operating state and displaying intentional distractions during a warning or alarm state. The general practice for creating an operator display is to reduce the detail of unimportant aspects of the display and promote focus on data and dynamic information. These practices include using minimalist design, using muted tones for background colors, using a standard font at a readable text size, displaying alarms visible for immediate attention, grouping data logically, and displaying data appropriately varying on the type of data. Users of these displays are more likely to stay focused on operating for longer periods by using design practices that reduce eye strain and fatigue. Effective operator displays will improve safety by reducing human errors during operation, which will help prevent catastrophic accidents. This report entails the details of my work on developing remote displays for the Hypergolic fuel servicing system. Before developing a prototype display, the design and requirements of the system are outlined and compiled into a document. Then each subsystem has schematic representations drawn that meet the specifications detailed in the document. The schematics are then used as the outline to create display representations of each subsystem. Each display is first tested individually. Then the displays are integrated with a prototype of the master system, and they are tested in a simulated environment then retested in the real environment. Extensive testing is important to ensure the displays function reliably as intended.

displays↗

Physical and Dynamical Linkages between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

Physical and Dynamical Linkages Between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

Tethered Satellites as an Enabling Platform for Operational Space Weather Monitoring Systems

Tethered satellites offer the potential to be an important enabling technology to support operational space weather monitoring systems. Space weather "nowcasting" and forecasting models rely on assimilation of near-real-time (NRT) space environment data to provide warnings for storm events and deleterious effects on the global societal infrastructure. Typically, these models are initialized by a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g., via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative semi-empirical physics-based forward-prediction calculations. Many challenges are associated with the development of an operational system, from the top-level architecture (e.g., the required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models) down to the individual instruments capable of making the NRT measurements. This study focuses on the latter challenge: we present some examples of how tethered satellites (from 100s of m to 20 km) are uniquely suited to address certain shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements are presented for two examples of space environment observables.

Gilchrist, Brian E.↗

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought

Central Great Plains precipitation deficits during May-August 2012 were the most severe since at least 1895, eclipsing the Dust Bowl summers of 1934 and 1936. Drought developed suddenly in May, following near-normal precipitation during winter and early spring. Its proximate causes were a reduction in atmospheric moisture transport into the Great Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. Processes that generally provide air mass lift and condensation were mostly absent, including a lack of frontal cyclones in late spring followed by suppressed deep convection in summer owing to large-scale subsidence and atmospheric stabilization. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the summer 2012 central Great Plains drought development, which therefore arrived without early warning. Climate simulations and empirical analysis suggest that ocean surface temperatures together with changes in greenhouse gases did not induce a substantial reduction in summertime precipitation over the central Great Plains during 2012. Yet, diagnosis of the retrospective climate simulations also reveals a regime shift toward warmer and drier summertime Great Plains conditions during the recent decade, most probably due to natural decadal variability. As a consequence, the probability for severe summer Great Plains drought may have increased in the last decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s, and the so-called tail-risk for severe drought may have been heightened in summer 2012. Such an extreme drought event was nonetheless still found to be a rare occurrence within the spread of 2012 climate model simulations. Implications of this study's findings for U.S. seasonal drought forecasting are discussed.

Forecasts↗

NASA Wearable Technology CLUSTER 2013-2014 Report

Wearable technology has the potential to revolutionize the way humans interact with one another, with information, and with the electronic systems that surround them. This change can already be seen in the dramatic increase in the availability and use of wearable health and activity monitors. These devices continuously monitor the wearer using on-­‐body sensors and wireless communication. They provide feedback that can be used to improve physical health and performance. Smart watches and head mounted displays are also receiving a great deal of commercial attention, providing immediate access to information via graphical displays, as well as additional sensing features. For the purposes of the Wearable Technology CLUSTER, wearable technology is broadly defined as any electronic sensing, human interfaces, computing, or communication that is mounted on the body. Current commercially available wearable devices primarily house electronics in rigid packaging to provide protection from flexing, moisture, and other contaminants. NASA mentors are interested in this approach, but are also interested in direct integration of electronics into clothing to enable more comfortable systems. For human spaceflight, wearable technology holds a great deal of promise for significantly improving safety, efficiency, autonomy, and research capacity for the crew in space and support personnel on the ground. Specific capabilities of interest include: Continuous biomedical monitoring for research and detection of health problems. Environmental monitoring for individual exposure assessments and alarms. Activity monitoring for responsive robotics and environments. Multi-modal caution and warning using tactile, auditory, and visual alarms. Wireless, hands-free, on-demand voice communication. Mobile, on-demand access to space vehicle and robotic displays and controls. Many technical challenges must be overcome to realize these wearable technology applications. For example, to make a wearable device that is both functional and comfortable for long duration wear, developers must strive to reduce electronic mass and volume while also addressing constraints imposed by the body attachment method. Depending on the application, the device must be placed in a location that the user can see and reach, and that provides the appropriate access to air and the wearer's skin. Limited power is available from body-­‐worn batteries and heat must be managed to prevent discomfort. If the clothing is to be washed, there are additional durability and washability hurdles that traditional electronics are not designed to address. Finally, each specific capability has unique technical challenges that will likely require unique solutions. In addition to the technical challenges, development of wearable devices is made more difficult by the diversity of skills required and the historic lack of collaboration across domains. Wearable technology development requires expertise in textiles engineering, apparel design, software and computer engineering, electronic design and manufacturing, human factors engineering, and application-­‐specific fields such as acoustics, medical devices, and sensing. Knowledge from each of these domains must be integrated to create functional and comfortable devices. For this reason, the diversity of knowledge and experience represented in the Wearable Technology is critical to overcoming the fundamental challenges in the field.

Simon, Cory↗

MODIS NDVI Change Detection Techniques and Products Used in the Near Real Time ForWarn System for Detecting, Monitoring, and Analyzing Regional Forest Disturbances

This presentation discusses MODIS NDVI change detection methods and products used in the ForWarn Early Warning System (EWS) for near real time (NRT) recognition and tracking of regionally evident forest disturbances throughout the conterminous US (CONUS). The latter has provided NRT forest change products to the forest health protection community since 2010, using temporally processed MODIS Aqua and Terra NDVI time series data to currently compute and post 6 different forest change products for CONUS every 8 days. Multiple change products are required to improve detectability and to more fully assess the nature of apparent disturbances. Each type of forest change product reports per pixel percent change in NDVI for a given 24 day interval, comparing current versus a given historical baseline NDVI. EMODIS 7 day expedited MODIS MOD13 data are used to obtain current and historical NDVIs, respectively. Historical NDVI data is processed with Time Series Product Tool (TSPT); and 2) the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool (PPET) software. While each change products employ maximum value compositing (MVC) of NDVI, the design of specific products primarily differs in terms of the historical baseline. The three main change products use either 1, 3, or all previous years of MVC NDVI as a baseline. Another product uses an Adaptive Length Compositing (ALC) version of MVC to derive an alternative current NDVI that is the freshest quality NDVI as opposed to merely the MVC NDVI across a 24 day time frame. The ALC approach can improve detection speed by 8 to 16 days. ForWarn also includes 2 change products that improve detectability of forest disturbances in lieu of climatic fluctuations, especially in the spring and fall. One compares current MVC NDVI to the zonal maximum under the curve NDVI per pheno-region cluster class, considering all previous years in the MODIS record. The other compares current maximum NDVI to the mean of maximum NDVI for all previous MODIS years.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Power, Avionics and Software Communication Network Architecture

This document describes the communication architecture for the Power, Avionics and Software (PAS) 2.0 subsystem for the Advanced Extravehicular Mobile Unit (AEMU). The following systems are described in detail: Caution Warn- ing and Control System, Informatics, Storage, Video, Audio, Communication, and Monitoring Test and Validation. This document also provides some background as well as the purpose and goals of the PAS project at Glenn Research Center (GRC).

Avionics↗

The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment Mission and its Potential Contributions to Human Exploration of Asteroids

The joint ESA and NASA Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission, involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. AIDA's primary objective is to demonstrate a kinetic impact deflection and characterize the binary NEA Didymos. The science and technical data obtained from AIDA will aid in the planning of future human exploration missions to NEAs and other small bodies. The dual robotic missions of AIDA, ESA's Asteroid Impact Monitor (AIM) and NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), will provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of the binary target Didymos both prior to and after the kinetic impact demonstration. The knowledge gained from this mission will help identify asteroidal physical properties in order to maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for future small body missions. The AIDA data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations.

Abell, Paul A.↗