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Preliminary Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for Artemis IV

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in- mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. METHODOLOGY: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for the Artemis IV mission. Artemis IV is currently scheduled for 2026 and will visit the Gateway space station in lunar orbit prior to the second lunar landing of the Artemis program. The baseline Artemis IV mission that was modeled was 28 days in duration with phases including Orion outbound, 4 days on the Gateway space station in lunar orbit, 2 crew on the surface of the Moon for approximately one week, an additional 5 days on Gateway, and then return to Earth. This baseline was compared to two alternative 34-day design reference missions (DRMs) that shifted the lunar sortie earlier or later in the mission profile. Assumptions included 2 female and 2 male crew and a notional medical system mass of 25 kg. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk. RESULTS: All three DRMs had very low probability of LOCL from medical conditions, primarily due to short duration. RTDC was also similar across the DRMs. In contrast, TTL was higher in the early lunar sortie DRM due to earlier occurrence of EVA-related medical conditions. Taken as a whole, there was no clinically significant difference in medical risk across the three missions. Results for clinical capabilities and an example medical equipment list will be discussed but were similar across DRMs.

D Hilmers↗
DOE OSTI2015

Resolve survey photometry and volume-limited calibration of the photometric gas fractions technique

We present custom-processed ultraviolet, optical, and near-infrared photometry for the REsolved Spectroscopy of a Local VolumE (RESOLVE) survey, a volume-limited census of stellar, gas, and dynamical mass within two subvolumes of the nearby universe (RESOLVE-A and RESOLVE-B). RESOLVE is complete down to baryonic mass ∼10{sup 9.1−9.3} M{sub ⊙}, probing the upper end of the dwarf galaxy regime. In contrast to standard pipeline photometry (e.g., SDSS), our photometry uses optimal background subtraction, avoids suppressing color gradients, and employs multiple flux extrapolation routines to estimate systematic errors. With these improvements, we measure brighter magnitudes, larger radii, bluer colors, and a real increase in scatter around the red sequence. Combining stellar mass estimates based on our optimized photometry with the nearly complete H i mass census for RESOLVE-A, we create new z = 0 volume-limited calibrations of the photometric gas fractions (PGF) technique, which predicts gas-to-stellar mass ratios (G/S) from galaxy colors and optional additional parameters. We analyze G/S-color residuals versus potential third parameters, finding that axial ratio is the best independent and physically meaningful third parameter. We define a “modified color” from planar fits to G/S as a function of both color and axial ratio. In the complete galaxy population, upper limits on G/S bias linear and planar fits. We therefore model the entire PGF probability density field, enabling iterative statistical modeling of upper limits and prediction of full G/S probability distributions for individual galaxies. These distributions have two-component structure in the red color regime. Finally, we use the RESOLVE-B 21 cm census to test several PGF calibrations, finding that most systematically under- or overestimate gas masses, but the full probability density method performs well.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Pore-scale capillary pressure analysis using multi-scale X-ray micromotography

Here, a multi-scale synchrotron-based X-ray microtomographic dataset of residually trapped air after gravity-driven brine imbibition was acquired for three samples with differing pore topologies and morphologies; image volumes were reconstructed with voxel sizes from 4.44 µm down to 0.64 µm. Capillary pressure distributions among the population of trapped ganglia were investigated by calculating interfacial curvature in order to assess the potential for remobilization of residually-trapped non-wetting ganglia due to differences in capillary pressure presented by neighbor ganglia. For each sample, sintered glass beads, Boise sandstone and Fontainebleau sandstone, sub-volumes with different voxel sizes were analyzed to quantify air/brine interfaces and interfacial curvatures and investigate the effect of image resolution on both fluid phase identification and curvature estimates. Results show that the method developed for interfacial curvature estimation leads to reliable capillary pressure estimates for gas ganglia. Higher resolution images increase confidence in curvature calculations, especially for the sandstone samples that display smaller gas-brine interfaces which are then represented by a higher number of voxels when imaged with a micron or sub-micron voxels size. The analysis of sub-volumes from the Boise and Fontainebleau dataset highlights the presence of a residually-trapped gas phase consisting of ganglia located in one or few pores and presenting significantly different capillary pressures, especially in the case of Fontainebleau sandstone. As a result, Ostwald ripening could occur, leading to gas transfer from ganglia with higher capillary pressure to surrounding ganglia with lower capillary pressures. More generally, at the pore-scale, most gas ganglia do present similar capillary pressures and Ostwald ripening would then not represent a major mechanism for residually-trapped gas transfer and remobilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Preliminary Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for Late Artemis Missions

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in- mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. METHODOLOGY: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for the Artemis IV mission. Artemis IV is currently scheduled for 2026 and will visit the Gateway space station in lunar orbit prior to the second lunar landing of the Artemis program. The baseline Artemis IV mission that was modeled was 28 days in duration with phases including Orion outbound, 4 days on the Gateway space station in lunar orbit, 2 crew on the surface of the Moon for approximately one week, an additional 5 days on Gateway, and then return to Earth. This baseline was compared to two alternative 34-day design reference missions (DRMs) that shifted the lunar sortie earlier or later in the mission profile. Assumptions included 2 female and 2 male crew and a notional medical system mass of 25 kg. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk. RESULTS: All three DRMs had very low probability of LOCL from medical conditions, primarily due to short duration. RTDC was also similar across the DRMs. In contrast, TTL was higher in the early lunar sortie DRM due to earlier occurrence of EVA-related medical conditions. Taken as a whole, there was no clinically significant difference in medical risk across the three missions. Results for clinical capabilities and an example medical equipment list will be discussed but were similar across DRMs.

D. Hilmers↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification of stability and unraveling the electronic and physical properties of bulk and (001)-surfaces of newly synthesized Ti 2 ZnX (X = C, N) MAX phases

MAX phase family has been extended by the addition of late transition metals at the A-site with the expectation of diverse functional properties. Here, we present our systematic density functional investigation on the thermodynamic and phonon stabilities, elastic properties, including elastic constants, elastic moduli and elastic anisotropy of newly synthesized Ti 2 ZnX (X = C, N) phases in comparison with conventional Ti 2 AlX (X = C, N). Due to the smaller size of N as compared to C, the unit cell dimension is reduced when C atoms are replaced by N atoms at the X-site. Furthermore, the Ti 2 ZnC and Ti 2 ZnN are stable at the equilibrium volume of 110.84 Å 3 and 105.70 Å 3 . The thermodynamic, mechanical and dynamical stabilities are validated by estimating the formation energies, elastic constants and phonon dispersions, respectively. The elastic properties of Ti 2 ZnN are less anisotropic as compared to those of Ti 2 ZnC. To understand the thin-film characteristics in Ti 2 ZnX, the surface properties with (001)-terminated slabs are investigated. Both Ti 2 ZnX bulk and (001)-surfaces exhibit metal-like electronic structures. There is a strong covalent bonding between Ti-X and Ti-Zn atoms confirmed by the charge density map and Mulliken population analysis. Additional states are generated at the Fermi level (EF) due to the unusual d-p states hybridization between Ti and Zn atoms. The anisotropy in chemical bonding is confirmed by the cleavage energy difference between Ti-X and Ti-Zn. Here, Ti(X)-001 and Zn-001 terminations are stable surfaces; however, in terms of chemical potentials, Zn-001 termination is the most favourable in Ti 2 ZnX.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Variable cascade dynamics and intermittency in the solar wind at 1 AU

In recent studies by ourselves and others of third-moment expressions for the rate of energy cascade in the solar wind, it has been shown that relatively large volumes of data are needed to produce convergent averages. These averages are in good agreement with independently obtained estimates for the average heating rate for a solar wind plasma under those conditions. The unanswered question has been whether the convergence issue is the result of intermittent dynamics or simple measurement uncertainties. In other words, is the difficulty in obtaining a single result that characterizes many similarly prepared samples due to in situ dynamics that create physically real variations or simple statistics? There have been publications showing evidence of intermittent dynamics in the solar wind. Here we show that the third-moment expressions and the computed energy cascade for relatively small samples of data comparable to the correlation length are generally well-formed estimates of the local dynamics. This leads us to conclude that intermittency and not simple measurement uncertainties are responsible for the slow convergence to expected heating rates. We partially characterize the scale size of the intermittency to be comparable to or smaller than the correlation length of the turbulence and we attempt to rephrase the discussion of third moments in terms of intermittent dynamics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

An image-guidance system for dynamic dose calculation in prostate brachytherapy using ultrasound and fluoroscopy

Purpose: Brachytherapy is a standard option of care for prostate cancer patients but may be improved by dynamic dose calculation based on localized seed positions. The American Brachytherapy Society states that the major current limitation of intraoperative treatment planning is the inability to localize the seeds in relation to the prostate. An image-guidance system was therefore developed to localize seeds for dynamic dose calculation. Methods: The proposed system is based on transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) and mobile C-arm fluoroscopy, while using a simple fiducial with seed-like markers to compute pose from the nonencoded C-arm. Three or more fluoroscopic images and an ultrasound volume are acquired and processed by a pipeline of algorithms: (1) seed segmentation, (2) fiducial detection with pose estimation, (3) seed matching with reconstruction, and (4) fluoroscopy-to-TRUS registration. Results: The system was evaluated on ten phantom cases, resulting in an overall mean error of 1.3 mm. The system was also tested on 37 patients and each algorithm was evaluated. Seed segmentation resulted in a 1% false negative rate and 2% false positive rate. Fiducial detection with pose estimation resulted in a 98% detection rate. Seed matching with reconstruction had a mean error of 0.4 mm. Fluoroscopy-to-TRUS registration had a mean error of 1.3 mm. Moreover, a comparison of dose calculations between the authors’ intraoperative method and an independent postoperative method shows a small difference of 7% and 2% forD{sub 90} and V{sub 100}, respectively. Finally, the system demonstrated the ability to detect cold spots and required a total processing time of approximately 1 min. Conclusions: The proposed image-guidance system is the first practical approach to dynamic dose calculation, outperforming earlier solutions in terms of robustness, ease of use, and functional completeness.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Targeting mitochondria in cancer cells using gold nanoparticle-enhanced radiotherapy: A Monte Carlo study

Purpose: Radiation damage to mitochondria has been shown to alter cellular processes and even lead to apoptosis. Gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) may be used to enhance these effects in scenarios where they collect on the outer membranes of mitochondria. A Monte Carlo (MC) approach is used to estimate mitochondrial dose enhancement under a variety of conditions. Methods: The PENELOPE MC code was used to generate dose distributions resulting from photons striking a 13 nm diameter AuNP with various thicknesses of water-equivalent coatings. Similar dose distributions were generated with the AuNP replaced by water so as to estimate the gain in dose on a microscopic scale due to the presence of AuNPs within an irradiated volume. Models of mitochondria with AuNPs affixed to their outer membrane were then generated—considering variation in mitochondrial size and shape, number of affixed AuNPs, and AuNP coating thickness—and exposed (in a dose calculation sense) to source spectra ranging from 6 MV to 90 kVp. Subsequently dose enhancement ratios (DERs), or the dose with the AuNPs present to that for no AuNPs, for the entire mitochondrion and its components were tallied under these scenarios. Results: For a representative case of a 1000 nm diameter mitochondrion affixed with 565 AuNPs, each with a 13 nm thick coating, the mean DER over the whole organelle ranged from roughly 1.1 to 1.6 for the kilovoltage sources, but was generally less than 1.01 for the megavoltage sources. The outer membrane DERs remained less than 1.01 for the megavoltage sources, but rose to 2.3 for 90 kVp. The voxel maximum DER values were as high as 8.2 for the 90 kVp source and increased further when the particles clustered together. The DER exhibited dependence on the mitochondrion dimensions, number of AuNPs, and the AuNP coating thickness. Conclusions: Substantial dose enhancement directly to the mitochondria can be achieved under the conditions modeled. If the mitochondrion dose can be directly enhanced, as these simulations show, this work suggests the potential for both a tool to study the role of mitochondria in cellular response to radiation and a novel avenue for radiation therapy in that the mitochondria may be targeted, rather than the nuclear DNA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

U-Pb constraints on pulsed eruption of the Deccan Traps across the end-Cretaceous mass extinction

Temporal correlation between some continental flood basalt eruptions and mass extinctions has been proposed to indicate causality, with eruptive volatile release driving environmental degradation and extinction. In this work, we tested this model for the Deccan Traps flood basalt province, which, along with the Chicxulub bolide impact, is implicated in the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) extinction approximately 66 million years ago. We estimated Deccan eruption rates with uranium-lead (U-Pb) zircon geochronology and resolved four high-volume eruptive periods. According to this model, maximum eruption rates occurred before and after the K-Pg extinction, with one such pulse initiating tens of thousands of years prior to both the bolide impact and extinction. Finally, these findings support extinction models that incorporate both catastrophic events as drivers of environmental deterioration associated with the K-Pg extinction and its aftermath.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

pnnl/femp-water-balance

Analysis and reporting for water and irrigation usage PNNL developed the Water Balance Tool, which provides a method to determine potable water consumption, by end-use, of a campus. A water balance compares the total water supply to the volume of water consumed by water-using equipment and applications. The output of the tool provides the estimated potable water consumption by major end-use and compares the sum of the end-uses to the total potable water supplied to the campus.

Kobold, Mark A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examination of Factors Affecting the Cost and Performance of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Equipped with Carbon Dioxide Capture

The purpose of this Technical Note is to report the findings of an examination of the effect of plausible deviations in select study assumptions on the reported cost and performance estimates for a power plant case drawn from NETL’s “Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity” (known as the Fossil Energy Baseline). An F-Class NGCC power plant equipped with state-of-the-art, solvent-based, post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO2) capture (95 percent carbon capture rate)—designated as Case B31B.95—was selected for this work. This sensitivity analysis provides insight into the effects of parameter variations within and across selected categories—ambient conditions, construction cost, natural gas (NG) price, capacity factor, and finance—on the plant performance and capital and operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and the subsequent impact on common figures of merit.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive quantification of height dependence of entrainment mixing between stratiform cloud top and environment

Different entrainment-mixing processes of turbulence are crucial to processes related to clouds; however, only a few qualitative studies have been concentrated on the vertical distributions of entrainment-mixing mechanisms with low vertical resolutions. To quantitatively study vertical profiles of entrainment-mixing mechanisms with a high resolution, the stratiform clouds observed in the Physics of Stratocumulus Top (POST) project are examined. The unique sawtooth flight pattern allows for an examination of the vertical distributions of entrainment-mixing mechanisms with a 5 m vertical resolution. Relative standard deviation of volume mean radius divided by relative standard deviation of liquid water content is introduced to be a new estimation of microphysical homogeneous mixing degree, to overcome difficulties of determining the adiabatic microphysical properties required in existing measures. The vertical profile of this new measure indicates that entrainment-mixing mechanisms become more homogeneous with decreasing altitudes and are consistent with the dynamical measures of Damköhler number and transition scale number. Further analysis shows that the vertical variation of entrainment-mixing mechanisms with decreasing altitudes is due to the increases of turbulent dissipation rate in cloud and relative humidity in droplet-free air and the decrease of size of droplet-free air. The results offer insights into the theoretical understanding and parameterizations of vertical variation of entrainment-mixing mechanisms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat Sizing Methodology for Solar Heat for Industrial Processes

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for industrial process heat (IPH) applications at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550 degrees Celsius. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWhth. Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the levelized cost of heat (LCOH), producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 8 - 12 m2; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats under deployment at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1973

Caloric balance during simulated and actual space flight

The in-flight caloric intakes of all Apollo astronauts are examined and shown to average about 25 kcal per kg per day. Measurement of weight changes following recovery indicates that about 0.15 kg of fat was lost per man per day in-flight for an average deficit of about 19 kcal per kg per day. Measurement of the caloric intake of astronauts under ground-based conditions and during hypobaric exposure indicated a caloric requirement which was not significantly different from the in-flight requirement adjusted for weight loss. Partial metabolic balance data and measurements of bone loss and body volume revealed that protein and mineral losses also occurred to an extent which would reduce the size of estimated in-flight caloric deficits.

Rambaut, P. C.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Rainfall results of the Florida Area Cumulus Experiment, 1970-76

The Florida Area Cumulus Experiment of 1970-76 (FACE-1) is a single-area, randomized, exploratory experiment to determine whether seeding cumuli for dynamic effects (dynamic seeding) can be used to augment convective rainfall over a substantial target area in south Florida. Rainfall is estimated using S-band radar observations after adjustment by raingages. The two primary response variables are rain volumes in the total target (TT) and in the floating target (FT), the most intensely treated portion of the target. The experimental unit is the day and the main observational period is the 6 h after initiation of treatment. Analyses without predictors suggest apparent increases in both the location and the dispersion characteristics of rainfall due to seeding in the FT and TT variables with substantial statistical support for the FT results and lesser statistical support for the TT results. Analyses of covariance using meteorologically meaningful predictor variables suggest a somewhat larger effect of seeding with stronger statistical support. These results are interpreted in terms of the FACE conceptual model.

Woodley, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Estimating the Solubility of Gases in Battery Electrolytes

Estimates in excellent agreement with experimental values. Simple method proposed for estimating solubility of gases in electrolytes of lithium batteries using expressions for energy of vaporization and for molar volume.

Lawson, D. D.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A compact hydrogen maser with exceptional long-term stability

A passive hydrogen maser employing a smaller microwave cavity than previous masers is described. The volume of the entire resonator package, including a conventional source, hexapole state selector, and four magnetic shields, is estimated at 20 liters. The techniques for constructing the ceramic cavity, coating it with FEP, and attaching the endcaps to achieve a stable container (to allow its use as a single vacuum system) are described in detail. Frequency stability measurements were made of four such masers, against an NBS-4 cesium primary standard, against each other, and against eight commercial cesium clocks; frequency stability level is reported as 1.7 x 10 to the -12th tau exp -1/2 from 1 to 100,000 sec, and no drift above 1 x 10 to the -15th/day was found. Pressure and temperature effects on frequency stability were found at the 1 x 10 to the -14th level. Noise behavior beyond 200,000 sec is characterized as random walk. The potential use of a compact stable maser as a clock is suggested.

Howe, D. A.↗