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The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA)

The process by which raw astronomical data acquisition is transformed into scientifically meaningful results and interpretation typically involves many statistical steps. Traditional astronomy limits itself to a narrow range of old and familiar statistical methods: means and standard deviations; least-squares methods like chi(sup 2) minimization; and simple nonparametric procedures such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. These tools are often inadequate for the complex problems and datasets under investigations, and recent years have witnessed an increased usage of maximum-likelihood, survival analysis, multivariate analysis, wavelet and advanced time-series methods. The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA) assisted astronomers with the use of sophisticated tools, and to match these tools with specific problems. The SCCA operated with two professors of statistics and a professor of astronomy working together. Questions were received by e-mail, and were discussed in detail with the questioner. Summaries of those questions and answers leading to new approaches were posted on the Web (www.state.psu.edu/ mga/SCCA). In addition to serving individual astronomers, the SCCA established a Web site for general use that provides hypertext links to selected on-line public-domain statistical software and services. The StatCodes site (www.astro.psu.edu/statcodes) provides over 200 links in the areas of: Bayesian statistics; censored and truncated data; correlation and regression, density estimation and smoothing, general statistics packages and information; image analysis; interactive Web tools; multivariate analysis; multivariate clustering and classification; nonparametric analysis; software written by astronomers; spatial statistics; statistical distributions; time series analysis; and visualization tools. StatCodes has received a remarkable high and constant hit rate of 250 hits/week (over 10,000/year) since its inception in mid-1997. It is of interest to scientists both within and outside of astronomy. The most popular sections are multivariate techniques, image analysis, and time series analysis. Hundreds of copies of the ASURV, SLOPES and CENS-TAU codes developed by SCCA scientists were also downloaded from the StatCodes site. In addition to formal SCCA duties, SCCA scientists continued a variety of related activities in astrostatistics, including refereeing of statistically oriented papers submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, talks in meetings including Feigelson's talk to science journalists entitled "The reemergence of astrostatistics" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting, and published papers of astrostatistical content.

Akritas, Michael↗

The partially averaged field approach to cosmic ray diffusion

The kinetic equation for particles interacting with turbulent fluctuations is derived by a new nonlinear technique which successfully corrects the difficulties associated with quasilinear theory. In this new method the effects of the fluctuations are evaluated along particle orbits which themselves include the effects of a statistically averaged subset of the possible configurations of the turbulence. The new method is illustrated by calculating the pitch angle diffusion coefficient D sub Mu Mu for particles interacting with slab model magnetic turbulence, i.e., magnetic fluctuations linearly polarized transverse to a mean magnetic field. Results are compared with those of quasilinear theory and also with those of Monte Carlo calculations. The major effect of the nonlinear treatment in this illustration is the determination of D sub Mu Mu in the vicinity of 90 deg pitch angles where quasilinear theory breaks down. The spatial diffusion coefficient parallel to a mean magnetic field is evaluated using D sub Mu Mu as calculated by this technique. It is argued that the partially averaged field method is not limited to small amplitude fluctuating fields and is hence not a perturbation theory.

Jones, F. C.↗

Topological Interpretability for Deep Learning

With the growing adoption of AI-based systems across everyday life, the need to understand their decision-making mechanisms is correspondingly increasing. The level at which we can trust the statistical inferences made from AI-based decision systems is an increasing concern, especially in high-risk systems such as criminal justice or medical diagnosis, where incorrect inferences may have tragic consequences. Despite their successes in providing solutions to problems involving real-world data, deep learning (DL) models cannot quantify the certainty of their predictions. These models are frequently quite confident, even when their solutions are incorrect. This work presents a method to infer prominent features in two DL classification models trained on clinical and non-clinical text by employing techniques from topological and geometric data analysis. We create a graph of a model's feature space and cluster the inputs into the graph's vertices by the similarity of features and prediction statistics. We then extract subgraphs demonstrating high-predictive accuracy for a given label. These subgraphs contain a wealth of information about features that the DL model has recognized as relevant to its decisions. We infer these features for a given label using a distance metric between probability measures, and demonstrate the stability of our method compared to the LIME and SHAP interpretability methods. This work establishes that we may gain insights into the decision mechanism of a DL model. This method allows us to ascertain if the model is making its decisions based on information germane to the problem or identifies extraneous patterns within the data.

Spannaus, Adam↗

An evaluation with the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) of which land-surface parameters are of greatest importance in atmospheric modeling

Land-surface parameterizations based on a statistical-dynamical have been suggested recently to improve the representation of the surface forcing from heterogeneous land in atmospheric models. With this approach, land-surface characteristics are prescribed by probability density functions (PDFs) rather than single 'representative' values as in 'big-leaf' parameterizations. Yet the use of many PDFs results in an increased computational burden and requires the complex problem of representing covariances between PDFs to be addressed. In this study, a sensitivity analysis of a land-surface parameterization for atmospheric modeling was performed to evaluate the surface parameters most important to the variability of surface heat fluxes. The Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) used for this analysis determines the relative contribution of individual input parameters to the variance of energy fluxes resulting from a heterogeneous surface. By simultaneously varying all parameters according to their individual probability density functions, the number of computations needed is very much reduced by this technique. This analysis demonstrates that most of the variability of surface heat fluxes may be described by the distributions of relative stomatal conductance and surface roughness. Thus, the statistical-dynamical approach may be simplified by the use of only these two probability density functions.

Collins, Dan C.↗

Application of Systems Engineering Principles and Techniques in Biological Big Data Analytics: A Review

In the past few decades, we have witnessed tremendous advancements in biology, life sciences and healthcare. These advancements are due in no small part to the big data made available by various high-throughput technologies, the ever-advancing computing power, and the algorithmic advancements in machine learning. Specifically, big data analytics such as statistical and machine learning has become an essential tool in these rapidly developing fields. As a result, the subject has drawn increased attention and many review papers have been published in just the past few years on the subject. Different from all existing reviews, this work focuses on the application of systems, engineering principles and techniques in addressing some of the common challenges in big data analytics for biological, biomedical and healthcare applications. Specifically, this review focuses on the following three key areas in biological big data analytics where systems engineering principles and techniques have been playing important roles: the principle of parsimony in addressing overfitting, the dynamic analysis of biological data, and the role of domain knowledge in biological data analytics.

dynamic analysis↗

Velocity Statistics and Spectra in Three-Stream Jets

Velocimetry measurements were obtained in three-stream jets at the NASA Glenn Research Center Nozzle Acoustics Test Rig using the time-resolved Doppler global velocimetry technique. These measurements afford exceptional frequency response, to 125 kHz bandwidth, in order to study the detailed dynamics of turbulence in developing shear flows. Mean stream-wise velocity is compared to measurements acquired using particle image velocimetry for validation. Detailed results for convective velocity distributions throughout an axisymmetric plume and the thick side of a plume with an offset third-stream duct are provided. The convective velocity results exhibit that, as expected, the eddy speeds are reduced on the thick side of the plume compared to the axisymmetric case. The results indicate that the time-resolved Doppler global velocimetry method holds promise for obtaining results valuable to the implementation and refinement of jet noise prediction methods being developed for three-stream jets.

Three-Stream Jets↗

Long-term 4.6 µm Variability in Brown Dwarfs and a New Technique for Identifying Brown Dwarf Binary Candidates

Using a sample of 361 nearby brown dwarfs, we have searched for 4.6 μm variability, indicative of large-scale rotational modulations or large-scale, long-term changes on timescales of over 10 yr. Our findings show no statistically significant variability in Spitzer's Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) channel 2 (ch2) or Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer W2 photometry. For Spitzer the ch2 1σ limits are ∼8 mmag for objects at 11.5 mag and ∼22 mmag for objects at 16 mag. This corresponds to no variability above 4.5% at 11.5 mag and 12.5% at 16 mag. We conclude that highly variable brown dwarfs, at least two previously published examples of which have been shown to have 4.6 μm variability above 80 mmag, are very rare. While analyzing the data, we also developed a new technique for identifying brown dwarf binary candidates in Spitzer data. We find that known binaries have IRAC ch2 point response function (PRF) flux measurements that are consistently dimmer than aperture flux measurements. We have identified 59 objects that exhibit such PRF versus aperture flux differences and are thus excellent binary brown dwarf candidates.

Hunter Brooks↗

Differentiable Preisach Modeling for Characterization and Optimization of Particle Accelerator Systems with Hysteresis

Future improvements in particle accelerator performance are predicated on increasingly accurate online modeling of accelerators. Hysteresis effects in magnetic, mechanical, and material components of accelerators are often neglected in online accelerator models used to inform control algorithms, even though reproducibility errors from systems exhibiting hysteresis are not negligible in high precision accelerators. Here, we combine the classical Preisach model of hysteresis with machine learning techniques to efficiently create nonparametric, high-fidelity models of arbitrary systems exhibiting hysteresis. We experimentally demonstrate how these methods can be used in situ, where a hysteresis model of an accelerator magnet is combined with a Bayesian statistical model of the beam response, allowing characterization of magnetic hysteresis solely from beam-based measurements. Finally, we explore how using these joint hysteresis-Bayesian statistical models allows us to overcome optimization performance limitations that arise when hysteresis effects are ignored.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Insights into distorted lamellar phases with small-angle scattering and machine learning

Lamellar phases are essential in various soft matter systems, with topological defects significantly influencing their mechanical properties. In this report, we present a machine-learning approach for quantitatively analyzing the structure and dynamics of distorted lamellar phases using scattering techniques. By leveraging the mathematical framework of Kolmogorov–Arnold networks, we demonstrate that the conformations of these distorted phases – expressed as superpositions of complex waves – can be reconstructed from small-angle scattering intensities. Through the contour analysis of wave field phase singularities, we obtain the statistics of the spatial distribution of topological defects. Furthermore, we establish that the temporal evolution of these defects can be derived from the time-dependent traveling wave field, informed by the dispersion relation of spectral components. This method opens new avenues for investigating the dynamics of distorted lamellar phases using various dynamic scattering techniques such as neutron spin echo and X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy. These findings enhance our microscopic understanding of how defects influence the physical properties of lamellar materials, with implications for both equilibrium and non-equilibrium states in general lamellar systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Momentum informed muon scattering tomography for monitoring spent nuclear fuels in dry storage cask

Development of an effective monitoring method for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in a dry storage cask (DSC) is important to meet the increasing demand for dry storage investigations. The DSC investigation should provide information about the quantity of stored SNF, and quality assurance of materials should be possible without opening the cask. However, traditional nondestructive examination (NDE) methods such as x-rays are difficult to deploy for DSC investigation because a typical DSC is intentionally designed to shield against radiation. To address this challenge, cosmic ray muons (CRMs) are used as an alternative NDE radiation probe because they can easily penetrate an entire DSC system; however, a wide application of muons is often hindered due to the naturally low CRM flux (~10 4 muons/m 2 /min). This paper introduces a newly proposed imaging algorithm, momentum-informed muon scattering tomography (MMST) , and presents how a limitation of the current muon scattering tomography technique has been addressed by measuring muon momentum. To demonstrate its functionality, a commercial DSC with 24 pressurized light water reactor fuel assemblies (FAs) and the MMST system were designed in GEANT4. Three noticeable improvements were observed for MMST system as a DSC investigation tool: (1) a signal stabilization, (2) an enhanced capability to differentiate various materials, and (3) statistically increased precision to identify and locate missing FAs. The results show that MMST improves the investigation accuracy from 79 to 98% when one FA is missing and 51% to 88% when one-half FA is missing. The advancement of the NDE technique using CRM for DSC verification is expected to resolve long-standing problems in increasing demand for DSC inspections and nuclear security.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Study of the processes $χ_{cJ}$ → $Ξ^–\overline{Ξ}^+$ and $Ξ^0 \overline{Ξ} ^0$

Using 448.1 x 10 6 $\psi$(3686) decays collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII $e^+e^-$ storage rings, the branching fractions and angular distributions of the decays $χ_{cJ}$ → $Ξ^–\overline{Ξ}^+$ and $Ξ^0 \overline{Ξ} ^0$ (J = 0, 1, 2) are measured based on a partial-reconstruction technique. The decays $χ_{c1}$ → $Ξ^0 \overline{Ξ} ^0$ and $χ_{c2}$ → $Ξ^0 \overline{Ξ} ^0$ are observed for the first time with statistical significances of 7σ and 15σ, respectively. The results of this analysis are in good agreement with previous measurements and have significantly improved precision.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Fission fragment decay simulations with the CGMF code

The CGMF code implements the Hauser-Feshbach statistical nuclear reaction model to follow the de-excitation of fission fragments by successive emissions of prompt neutrons and γ rays. The Monte Carlo technique is used to facilitate the analysis of complex distributions and correlations among the prompt fission observables. Starting from initial configurations for the fission fragments in mass, charge, kinetic energy, excitation energy, spin, and parity, Y(A,Z,KE,U,J,π), CGMF samples neutron and γ-ray probability distributions at each stage of the decay process, conserving energy, spin and parity. Nuclear structure and reaction input data from the RIPL3 library are used to describe fission fragment properties and decay probabilities. Characteristics of prompt fission neutrons, prompt fission γ rays, and independent fission yields can be studied consistently. Correlations in energy, angle and multiplicity among the emitted neutrons and γ rays can be easily analyzed as a function of the emitting fragments. Finally, in its current version, CGMF is limited to certain spontaneous fission reactions on Pu and Cf isotopes, as well as neutron-induced fission reactions up to 20 MeV on U, Np, and Pu isotopes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Machine Learning technique for isotopic determination of radioisotopes using HPGe γ-ray spectra

γ-ray spectroscopy is a quantitative, non-destructive technique that may be utilized for the identification and quantitative isotopic estimation of radionuclides. Traditional methods of isotopic determination have various challenges that contribute to statistical and systematic uncertainties in the estimated isotopics. Furthermore, these methods typically require numerous pre-processing steps, and have only been rigorously tested in laboratory settings with limited shielding. Here, in this work, we examine the application of a number of machine learning based regression algorithms as alternatives to conventional approaches for analyzing γ-ray spectroscopy data in the Emergency Response arena. This approach not only eliminates many steps in the analysis procedure, and therefore offers potential to reduce this source of systematic uncertainty, but is also shown to offer comparable performance to conventional approaches in the Emergency Response Application.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Top-down proteomics

Proteoforms arising from posttranslational modifications, genetic polymorphisms, and RNA splice variants, play a pivotal role as the key drivers in biology. Thus, a comprehensive understanding of proteoforms is essential for unraveling the intricacies of biological systems and bridging the gap between genotype and phenotype. By analyzing whole proteins without digestion, top-down proteomics (TDP) provides a holistic view of the proteome and presents a next-generation approach for deciphering protein function, uncovering disease mechanisms, and advancing precision medicine. This Primer embarks on a journey into the world of TDP by encapsulating its historical context, underlying principles, recent advances, and an outlook on the future of TDP. The experimental section navigates instrumentation, sample preparation, intact protein separation, tandem mass spectrometry techniques, and data collection. Results decipher raw data, visualize intact protein spectra, unravel data analysis, and explain proteoform identification, characterization, and quantitation, as well as statistical analysis. Various applications of TDP spanning the human proteoform project, biomedical, biopharmaceutical, and clinical applications are described. These are complemented by discussions on measurement reproducibility, limitations, and a forward-looking perspective outlining uncharted waters where the field can advance, and potential exciting future applications of TDP.

Roberts, David S.↗

Discovering strongly lensed quasar candidates with catalogue-based methods from DESI Legacy Surveys

The Hubble tension, revealed by a ~5σ discrepancy between measurements of the Hubble-Lemaitre constant among observations of the early and local Universe, is one of the most significant problems in modern cosmology. In order to better understand the origin of this mismatch, independent techniques to measure H 0 , such as strong lensing time delays, are required. Notably, the sample size of such systems is key to minimising the statistical uncertainties and cosmic variance, which can be improved by exploring the datasets of large-scale sky surveys such as Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We identify possible strong lensing time-delay systems within DESI by selecting candidate multiply imaged lensed quasars from a catalogue of 24 440 816 candidate QSOs contained in the ninth data release of the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys (DESI-LS). Using a friend-of-friends-like algorithm on spatial co-ordinates, our method generates an initial list of compact quasar groups. This list is subsequently filtered using a measure of the similarity of colours among a group’s members and the likelihood that they are quasars. A visual inspection finally selects candidate strong lensing systems based on the spatial configuration of the group members. We identified 620 new candidate multiply imaged lensed quasars (101 grade-A, 214 grade-B, 305 grade-C). This number excludes 53 known spectroscopically confirmed systems and existing candidate systems identified in other similar catalogues. When available, these new candidates will be further checked by combining the spectroscopic and photometric data from DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Study of the atmospheric conditions affecting infrared astronomical measurements at White Mountain, California

Measurements are described of atmospheric conditions affecting astronomical observations at White Mountain, California. Measurements were made at more than 1400 times spaced over more than 170 days at the Summit Laboratory and a small number of days at the Barcroft Laboratory. The recorded quantities were ten micron sky noise and precipitable water vapor, plus wet and dry bulb temperatures, wind speed and direction, brightness of the sky near the sun, fisheye lens photographs of the sky, description of cloud cover and other observable parameters, color photographs of air pollution astronomical seeing, and occasional determinations of the visible light brightness of the night sky. Measurements of some of these parameters have been made for over twenty years at the Barcroft and Crooked Creek Laboratories, and statistical analyses were made of them. These results and interpretations are given. The bulk of the collected data are statistically analyzed, and disposition of the detailed data is described. Most of the data are available in machine readable form. A detailed discussion of the techniques proposed for operation at White Mountain is given, showing how to cope with the mountain and climatic problems.

Field, G. B.↗

Cosmic dust in the atmosphere and in the interplanetary space at 1 AU today and in the early solar system

A description of techniques used in recent experiments to detect and analyze cosmic dust and micrometeorites is given and the results both from the study of lunar crater statistics and from in situ measurements are reviewed. The results from lunar crater statistics show an agreement with the results obtained from in situ measurements in interplanetary space and derived from zodiacal light measurements. The near earth results show an enhancement in the flux numbers. This can be caused either by secondary lunar debris or by disintegration of low density fireballs in the outer atmosphere.

Fechtig, H.↗

Evaluation criteria for software classification inventories, accuracies, and maps

Statistical criteria are presented for modifying the contingency table used to evaluate tabular classification results obtained from remote sensing and ground truth maps. This classification technique contains information on the spatial complexity of the test site, on the relative location of classification errors, on agreement of the classification maps with ground truth maps, and reduces back to the original information normally found in a contingency table.

Jayroe, R. R., Jr.↗