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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Uncertainty Quantification for Multiscale Thermal Transport Simulations.
Abstract not provided.
Global Sensitivity Analysis and Quantification of Model Error for Large Eddy Simulation in Scramjet Design.
Abstract not provided.
Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of SA Turbulence Model Coefficients in Two and Three Dimensions
The goal of this work is to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes codes due to uncertainty in the values of model coefficients for three wall-bounded flows, and to rank the contribution of each coefficient to uncertainty in various output flow quantities of interest.
Uncertainty Quantification of Wind Turbine Blade Load Measurement Estimation and Transformation.
Abstract not provided.
Multifidelity uncertainty quantification using reduced-basis methods with application to the Reynolds–averaged Navier–Stokes equations
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Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States
To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.
Error quantification of the Arrhenius blending rule for viscosity of hydrocarbon mixtures
Six hundred and seventy-five measurements of dynamic viscosity and density have been used to assess the prediction error of the Arrhenius blending rule for kinematic viscosity of hydrocarbon mixtures. Major trends within the data show that mixture complexity–binary to hundreds of components—and temperature are more important determinants of prediction error than differences in molecular size or hydrogen saturation between the components of the mixtures. Over the range evaluated, no correlation between prediction error and mole fractions was observed, suggesting the log of viscosity truly is linear in mole fraction, as indicated by the Arrhenius blending rule. Mixture complexity and temperature also impact molar volume and its prediction. However, a linear regression between the two model errors explains less than 20% of the observed variation, indicating that mixture viscosity and/or molar volume are not linear with respect to temperature and/or mixture complexity. Extensive discussion of the intermolecular forces and the geometric arrangement of molecules and vacancies in liquids, which ultimately determines its viscosity, is brought into context with the implicit approximations behind the Arrhenius blending rule. The complexity of this physics is not compatible with a simple algebraic correction to the model. However, sufficient data is now available to determine confidence intervals around the prediction of fuel viscosity based on its component mole fractions and viscosities. At -40°C, when all identified components are pure molecules the modeling error is 13.2% of the predicted (nominal) viscosity times the root mean square of the component mole fractions.
Quantification of heterogeneity in human CD8 + T cell responses to vaccine antigens: an HLA-guided perspective
Vaccines have historically played a pivotal role in controlling epidemics. Effective vaccines for viruses causing significant human disease, e.g., Ebola, Lassa fever, or Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever virus, would be invaluable to public health strategies and counter-measure development missions. Here, we propose coverage metrics to quantify vaccine-induced CD8 + T cell-mediated immune protection, as well as metrics to characterize immuno-dominant epitopes, in light of human genetic heterogeneity and viral evolution. Proof-of-principle of our approach and methods are demonstrated for Ebola virus, SARS-CoV-2, and Burkholderia pseudomallei (vaccine) proteins.
ARM-IRL: Adaptive Resilience Metric Quantification Using Inverse Reinforcement Learning
The resilience of safety-critical systems is gaining importance due to the rise in cyber and physical threats, especially within critical infrastructure. Traditional static resilience metrics may not capture dynamic system states, leading to inaccurate assessments and ineffective responses to cyber threats. This work aims to develop a data-driven, adaptive method for resilience metric learning. We propose a data-driven approach using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to learn a single, adaptive resilience metric. The method infers a reward function from expert control actions. Unlike previous approaches using static weights or fuzzy logic, this work applies adversarial inverse reinforcement learning (AIRL), training a generator and discriminator in parallel to learn the reward structure and derive an optimal policy. The proposed approach is evaluated on multiple scenarios: optimal communication network rerouting, power distribution network reconfiguration, and cyber–physical restoration of critical loads using the IEEE 123-bus system. The adaptive, learned resilience metric enables faster critical load restoration in comparison to conventional RL approaches.
Towards the Quantification of 5f Delocalization
By using M4,5 X-ray Emission Spectroscopy (XES) in the tender X-ray regime, it is possible to quantify 5f delocalization in the actinides. Previous analyses, utilizing the Branching Ratio (BR) in the N4,5 X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy (XAS), could not discriminate between the cases of localized n = 2 and delocalized n = 3, in uranium materials, where n is the number of 5f electrons on the U entity. Here, it is shown that, by employing the ubiquitous 6p → 3d XES as a point of normalization, the localized n = 2 and delocalized n = 3 cases can be easily distinguished and quantified.
Optimization of one-step in situ transesterification method for accurate quantification of EPA in Nannochloropsis gaditana
Microalgae are a valuable source of lipid feedstocks for biodiesel and valuable omega-3 fatty acids. Nannochloropsis gaditana has emerged as a promising producer of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) due to its fast growth rate and high EPA content. In the present study, the fatty acid profile of Nannochloropsis gaditana was found to be naturally high in EPA and devoid of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), thereby providing an opportunity to maximize the efficacy of EPA production. Using an optimized one-step in situ transesterification method (methanol:biomass = 90 mL/g; HCl 5% by vol.; 70 °C; 1.5 h), the maximum fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) yield of Nannochloropsis gaditana cultivated under rich condition was quantified as 10.04% ± 0.08% by weight with EPA-yields as high as 4.02% ± 0.17% based on dry biomass. The total FAME and EPA yields were 1.58- and 1.23-fold higher separately than that obtained using conventional two-step method (solvent system: methanol and chloroform). Furthermore, this one-step in situ method provides a fast and simple method to measure fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) yields and could serve as a promising method to generate eicosapentaenoic acid methyl ester from microalgae.
Natural Gas Fugitive Leak Detection Using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle: Localization and Quantification of Emission Rate
We describe a set of methods for locating and quantifying natural gas leaks using a small unmanned aerial system equipped with a path-integrated methane sensor. The algorithms are developed as part of a system to enable the continuous monitoring of methane, supported by a series of over 200 methane release trials covering 51 release location and flow rate combinations. The system was found throughout the trials to reliably distinguish between cases with and without a methane release down to 2 standard cubic feet per hour (0.011 g/s). Among several methods evaluated for horizontal localization, the location corresponding to the maximum path-integrated methane reading performed best with a mean absolute error of 1.2 m if the results from several flights are spatially averaged. Additionally, a method of rotating the data around the estimated leak location according to the wind is developed, with the leak magnitude calculated from the average crosswind integrated flux in the region near the source location. The system is initially applied at the well pad scale (100–1000 m2 area). Validation of these methods is presented including tests with unknown leak locations. Sources of error, including GPS uncertainty, meteorological variables, data averaging, and flight pattern coverage, are discussed. The techniques described here are important for surveys of small facilities where the scales for dispersion-based approaches are not readily applicable.
Uncertainty Quantification in CO2 Trapping Mechanisms: A Case Study of PUNQ-S3 Reservoir Model Using Representative Geological Realizations and Unsupervised Machine Learning
Evaluating uncertainty in CO2 injection projections often requires numerous high-resolution geological realizations (GRs) which, although effective, are computationally demanding. This study proposes the use of representative geological realizations (RGRs) as an efficient approach to capture the uncertainty range of the full set while reducing computational costs. A predetermined number of RGRs is selected using an integrated unsupervised machine learning (UML) framework, which includes Euclidean distance measurement, multidimensional scaling (MDS), and a deterministic K-means (DK-means) clustering algorithm. In the context of the intricate 3D aquifer CO2 storage model, PUNQ-S3, these algorithms are utilized. The UML methodology selects five RGRs from a pool of 25 possibilities (20% of the total), taking into account the reservoir quality index (RQI) as a static parameter of the reservoir. To determine the credibility of these RGRs, their simulation results are scrutinized through the application of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, which analyzes the distribution of the output. In this assessment, 40 CO2 injection wells cover the entire reservoir alongside the full set. The end-point simulation results indicate that the CO2 structural, residual, and solubility trapping within the RGRs and full set follow the same distribution. Simulating five RGRs alongside the full set of 25 GRs over 200 years, involving 10 years of CO2 injection, reveals consistently similar trapping distribution patterns, with an average value of Dmax of 0.21 remaining lower than Dcritical (0.66). Using this methodology, computational expenses related to scenario testing and development planning for CO2 storage reservoirs in the presence of geological uncertainties can be substantially reduced.
Qualification and Quantification of Porosity at the Top of the Fuel Pins in Metallic Fuels Using Image Processing
Approximately 130,000 metal fuel pins were irradiated in the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) during its 30 years of operation to develop and characterize existing and prospective fuels. For many of the metal fuel irradiation experiments, neutron radiography imaging was performed to characterize fuel behavior, such as fuel axial expansion. While several fuel expansion results obtained from neutron radiography imaging have been published, the analysis of neutron radiography for the purpose of describing statistical properties of porous matter formed on top of the fuel pins, also referred to as fluff in previous publications, is significantly less represented in the literature with just a single paper so far. This study aims to validate and augment results reported in previous publications using automated image processing. The paper describes the statistical properties of the porous matter in terms of nine parameters derived from radiography images and correlates those parameters with such fuel properties as composition, expansion, temperature, and burnup. The reported results are based on 1097 fuel pins of eight different fuel compositions. For three major fuel types, U-10Zr, U-8Pu-10Zr, and U-19Pu-10Zr, a clear negative correlation is found between the Pu content and five parameters describing the amount of porous matter generated. The parameters describing granularity properties, however, showed either negative correlation or nonlinear dependency from fuel composition. The parameters describing the amount showed a positive correlation with fuel axial expansion, while granularity parameters showed a negative correlation with axial expansion. The dependency on cladding temperature was found to be weak. A positive correlation is demonstrated for volume parameters and fuel burnup. In general, reported results confirm and validate findings published in previous studies using a much larger number of pins and automated processing techniques, which easily lend themselves to reproducibility, thus avoiding subjective bias.
Machine Learning-Driven Quantification of CO2 Plume Dynamics at Illinois Basin Decatur Project Sites Using Microseismic Data
This study utilizes machine learning to quantify CO2 plume extents by analyzing microseismic data from the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP). Leveraging a unique dataset of well logs, microseismic records, and CO2 injection metrics, this work aims to predict the temporal evolution of subsurface CO2 saturation plumes. The findings illustrate that machine learning can predict plume dynamics, revealing vertical clustering of microseismic events over distinct time periods within certain proximities to the injection well, consistent with an invasion percolation model. The buoyant CO2 plume partially trapped within sandstone intervals periodically breaches localized barriers or baffles, which act as leaky seals and impede vertical migration until buoyancy overcomes gravity and capillary forces, leading to breakthroughs along vertical zones of weakness. Between different unsupervised clustering techniques, K-Means and DBSCAN were applied and analyzed in detail, where K-means outperformed DBSCAN in this specific study by indicating the combination of the highest Silhouette Score and the lowest Davies–Bouldin Index. The predictive capability of machine learning models in quantifying CO2 saturation plume extension is significant for real-time monitoring and management of CO2 sequestration sites. The models exhibit high accuracy, validated against physical models and injection data from the IBDP, reinforcing the viability of CO2 geological sequestration as a climate change mitigation strategy and enhancing advanced tools for safe management of these operations.
Quantification of Uncoupled Spin Domains in Spin-Abundant Disordered Solids
Materials often contain minor heterogeneous phases that are difficult to characterize yet nonetheless significantly influence important properties. Here we describe a solid-state NMR strategy for quantifying minor heterogenous sample regions containing dilute, essentially uncoupled nuclei in materials where the remaining nuclei experience heteronuclear dipolar couplings. NMR signals from the coupled nuclei are dephased while NMR signals from the uncoupled nuclei can be amplified by one or two orders of magnitude using Carr-Meiboom-Purcell-Gill (CPMG) acquisition. The signal amplification by CPMG can be estimated allowing the concentration of the uncoupled spin regions to be determined even when direct observation of the uncoupled spin NMR signal in a single pulse experiment would require an impractically long duration of signal averaging. We use this method to quantify residual graphitic carbon using 13 C CPMG NMR in poly(carbon monofluoride) samples synthesized by direct fluorination of carbon from various sources. Our detection limit for graphitic carbon in these materials is better than 0.05 mol%. The accuracy of the method is discussed and comparisons to other methods are drawn.