DOE OSTI2014
The VISION model has been developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to provide estimates of the potential energy use, oil use, and carbon emission impacts to the year 2100 of advanced light- and heavy-duty highway vehicle technologies and alternative fuels. DOE supports research of advanced transportation technologies (including fuels) and is frequently asked to provide estimates of the potential impacts of successful market penetration of these technologies, sometimes on a relatively-quick turnaround basis. VISION is a spreadsheet model that was created in Microsoft Excel® that can be used to respond rapidly to quick-turnaround requests, as well as for longer-term analyses. It uses vehicle survival and age-dependent usage characteristics to project total light- and heavy-truck stock, total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and total energy use by technology and fuel type by year, given market penetration and vehicle energy efficiency assumptions developed exogenously. Total carbon emissions for on-highway vehicles by year are also estimated because life-cycle carbon coefficients for various fuels are included in VISION. VISION is not a substitute for the transportation component of the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS incorporates a consumer choice model to project market penetration of advanced vehicles and alternative fuels. The projections are made within the context of the entire US economy. However, the NEMS model requires more time to execute and only makes projections to 2040. VISION complements NEMS with its relative ease of use and by extending the time frame of potential analysis beyond 2040. VISION has been used for a wide variety of purposes. For illustration, we have listed some of its most recent and current uses in Table 1. Figures 1 through 4 illustrate the results of some of those runs. These graphs are not actual model outputs, but they are based on model results. Aside from these, the National Petroleum Council and National Academies used VISION in their recent scenario studies. The original VISION model description and user guide were written in 2004 and 2006, respectively. Since then, the VISION model has been upgraded with new features and functions. Based on the previous two documents, this report describes the 2013 version including all of the new features that have been added since 2006. The main body of this report describes VISION’s methodology and data sources. The methodology and data sources used in the light- and heavy-vehicle portions of the model are discussed separately. Some suggestions for future improvements to the model are made.