Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “generator parameter estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,621 records · Page 90

An Integrated Approach To Offshore Wind Energy Assessment: Great Lakes 3D Wind Experiment

This grant supported fundamental research into the characterization of flow parameters of relevance to the wind energy industry focused on offshore and the coastal zone. A major focus of the project was application of the latest generation of remote sensing instrumentation and also integration of measurements and numerical modeling to optimize characterization of time-evolving atmospheric flow parameters in 3-D. Our research developed a new data-constrained Wind Atlas for the Great Lakes, and developed new insights into flow parameters in heterogeneous environments. Four experiments were conducted during the project: At a large operating onshore wind farm in May 2012; At the National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Wind Technology Center (NREL NWTC) during February 2013; At the shoreline of Lake Erie in May 2013; and At the Wind Energy Institute of Canada on Prince Edward Island in May 2015. The experiment we conducted in the coastal zone of Lake Erie indicated very complex flow fields and the frequent presence of upward momentum fluxes and resulting distortion of the wind speed profile at turbine relevant heights due to swells in the Great Lakes. Additionally, our data (and modeling) indicate the frequent presence of low level jets at 600 m height over the Lake and occasions when the wind speed profile across the rotor plane may be impacted by this phenomenon. Experimental data and modeling of the fourth experiment on Prince Edward Island showed that at 10-14 m escarpment adjacent to long-overseas fetch the zone of wind speed decrease before the terrain feature and the increase at (and slightly downwind of) the escarpment is ~3–5% at turbine hub-heights. Additionally, our measurements were used to improve methods to compute the uncertainty in lidar-derived flow properties and to optimize lidar-scanning strategies. For example, on the basis of the experimental data we collected plus those from one of our research partners we advanced a new methodology to estimate a priori the uncertainty in wind speed retrievals from arc scans based on site characteristics such as wind velocity, turbulence intensity and proposed scan geometry. Insights regarding use of remote sensing technologies deriving from project experiments were used to compile a best practice document http://doi.org/10.7298/X4QV3JGF for measuring wind speeds and turbulence offshore through in-situ and remote sensing technologies. A project-specific web-site was developed and is available at: http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/PeoplePlaces/Faculty/spryor/DoE_AIATOWEA/index.html

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Failure Mode Classification for Life Prediction Modeling of Solid-State Lighting

Since the passing of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, the U.S. government has mandated greater energy independence which has acted as a catalyst for accelerating and facilitating research efforts toward the development and deployment of market-driven solutions for energy-saving homes, buildings and manufacturing, as well as sustainable transportation and renewable electricity generation. As part of this effort, an emphasis toward advancing solid-state lighting technology through research, development, demonstration, and commercial applications is assisting in the phase out of the common incandescent light bulb, as well as developing a more economical lighting source that is less toxic than compact fluorescent lighting. This has led lighting manufacturers to pursue SSL technologies for a wide range of consumer lighting applications. An SSL luminaire’s lifetime can be characterized in terms of lumen maintenance life. Lumen maintenance or lumen depreciation is the percentage decrease in the relative luminous flux from that of the original, pristine luminous flux value. Lumen maintenance life is the estimated operating time, in hours, when the desired failure threshold is projected to be reached at normal operating conditions. One accepted failure threshold of SSL luminaires is lumen maintenance of 70% -- a 30% reduction in the light output of the luminaire. Currently, the only approved lighting standard that puts forth a recommendation for long-term luminous flux maintenance projections towards a specified failure threshold of an SSL luminaire is the IES TM-28-14 (TM28) standard. iii TM28 was derived as a means to compare luminaires that have been tested at different facilities, research labs or companies. TM28 recommends the use of the Arrhenius equation to determine SSL device specific reaction rates from thermally driven failure mechanisms used to characterize a single failure mode – the relative change in the luminous flux output or “light power” of the SSL luminaire. The use of the Arrhenius equation necessitates two different temperature conditions, 25°C and 45°C are suggested by TM28, to determine the SSL lamp specific activation energy. One principal issue with TM28 is the lack of additional stresses or parameters needed to characterize non-temperature dependent failure mechanisms. Another principal issue with TM28 is the assumption that lumen maintenance or lumen depreciation gives an adequate comparison between SSL luminaires. Additionally, TM28 has no process for the determination of acceleration factors or lifetime estimations. Currently, a literature gap exists for established accelerated test methods for SSL devices to assess quality, reliability and durability before being introduced into the marketplace. Furthermore, there is a need for Physics-of-Failure based approaches to understand the processes and mechanisms that induce failure for the assessment of SSL reliability in order to develop generalized acceleration factors that better represent SSL product lifetime. This and the deficiencies in TM28 validate the need behind the development of acceleration techniques to quantify SSL reliability under a variety of environmental conditions. The ability to assess damage accrual and investigate reliability of SSL components and systems is essential to understanding the life time of the SSL device itself. The methodologies developed in this work increases the understanding of SSL devices iv through the investigation of component and device reliability under a variety of accelerated test conditions. The approaches for suitable lifetime predictions through the development of novel generalized acceleration factors, as well as a prognostics and health management framework, will greatly reduce the time and effort needed to produce SSL acceleration factors for the development of lifetime predictions.

Sakalaukus, Peter Joseph↗

Wake Vortex Inverse Model User's Guide

NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA) has developed an inverse model for inverting landing aircraft vortex data. The data used for the inversion are the time evolution of the lateral transport position and vertical position of both the port and starboard vortices. The inverse model performs iterative forward model runs using various estimates of vortex parameters, vertical crosswind profiles, and vortex circulation as a function of wake age. Forward model predictions of lateral transport and altitude are then compared with the observed data. Differences between the data and model predictions guide the choice of vortex parameter values, crosswind profile and circulation evolution in the next iteration. Iterations are performed until a user-defined criterion is satisfied. Currently, the inverse model is set to stop when the improvement in the rms deviation between the data and model predictions is less than 1 percent for two consecutive iterations. The forward model used in this inverse model is a modified version of the Shear-APA model. A detailed description of this forward model, the inverse model, and its validation are presented in a different report (Lai, Mellman, Robins, and Delisi, 2007). This document is a User's Guide for the Wake Vortex Inverse Model. Section 2 presents an overview of the inverse model program. Execution of the inverse model is described in Section 3. When executing the inverse model, a user is requested to provide the name of an input file which contains the inverse model parameters, the various datasets, and directories needed for the inversion. A detailed description of the list of parameters in the inversion input file is presented in Section 4. A user has an option to save the inversion results of each lidar track in a mat-file (a condensed data file in Matlab format). These saved mat-files can be used for post-inversion analysis. A description of the contents of the saved files is given in Section 5. An example of an inversion input file, with preferred parameters values, is given in Appendix A. An example of the plot generated at a normal completion of the inversion is shown in Appendix B.

Lai, David↗

ROBUST ONLINE MONITORING FOR CALIBRATION ASSESSMENT OF TRANSMITTERS AND INSTRUMENTATION

Robust online monitoring (OLM) technologies are expected to enable the extension or elimination of periodic sensor calibration intervals in operating and new reactors. Specifically, the next generation of OLM technology is expected to include newly developed advanced algorithms that improve monitoring of sensor/system performance and enable the use of plant data to derive information that currently cannot be measured. These advances in OLM technologies will improve the safety and reliability of current and planned nuclear power systems through improved accuracy and increased reliability of sensors used to monitor key parameters. In this paper, we discuss an overview of research being performed within the Nuclear Energy Enabling Technologies (NEET)/Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) program, for the development of OLM algorithms to use sensor outputs and, in combination with other available information, 1) determine whether one or more sensors are out of calibration or failing and 2) replace a failing sensor with reliable, accurate sensor outputs. Algorithm development is focused on the following OLM functions: • Signal validation – fault detection and selection of acceptance criteria • Virtual sensing – signal value prediction and acceptance criteria • Response-time assessment – fault detection and acceptance criteria selection A GP-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) method previously developed for UQ in OLM, was adapted for use in sensor-fault detection and virtual sensing. For signal validation, the various components to the OLM residual (which is computed using an AAKR model) were explicitly defined and modeled using a GP. Evaluation was conducted using flow loop data from multiple sources. Results using experimental data from laboratory-scale flow loops indicate that the approach, while capable of detecting sensor drift, may be incapable of discriminating between sensor drift and model inadequacy. This may be due to a simplification applied in the initial modeling, where the sensor degradation is assumed to be stationary. In the case of virtual sensors, the GP model was used in a predictive mode to estimate the correct sensor reading for sensors that may have failed. Results have indicated the viability of using this approach for virtual sensing. However, the GP model has proven to be computationally expensive, and so alternative algorithms for virtual sensing are being evaluated. Finally, automated approaches to performing noise analysis for extracting sensor response time were developed. Evaluation of this technique using laboratory-scale data indicates that it compares well with manual techniques previously used for noise analysis. Moreover, the automated and manual approaches for noise analysis also compare well with the current “gold standard”, hydraulic ramp testing, for response time monitoring. Ongoing research in this project is focused on further evaluation of the algorithms, optimization for accuracy and computational efficiency, and integration into a suite of tools for robust OLM that are applicable to monitoring sensor calibration state in nuclear power plants.

calibration interval extension↗

Examination of L-Band Brightness Temperature Forecasts in the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Analysis

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission [4] has been providing L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations since April 2015. By assimilating the Tb observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model [5] using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office generates the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, which provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with ~2.5-day latency for use in research and applications [6]. The L4_SM product also includes estimates of soil temperature, land surface fluxes, and assimilation diagnostics such as the model forecast and observed Tb values [7]. The output from the L4_SM system is routinely monitored by the L4_SM team. Such monitoring provides valuable information; instances of unusually large Tb observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals can indicate events during which soil moisture conditions are poorly described in the land modeling system [7,8]. For example, repeated occurrences of very large Tb O-F values in central Australia were traced back to deficiencies in the gauge-based precipitation product used in the land modeling system through L4_SM Version 5; this discovery prompted the use, beginning in Version 6, of satellite- and gauge-based precipitation observations outside of North America [9]. Recently, a statistical analysis of the Tb O-F residuals revealed systematic errors in the “tau-omega” L-band radiative transfer model that converts the land-model simulated soil moisture and temperature into the forecast Tb prior to the L4_SM analysis. The L4_SM analysis is built on the ensemble Kalman filter and assumes unbiased forecast errors. The presence of systematic Tb forecast errors could thus adversely impact the quality of the analyzed soil moisture. In this paper, we examine the Tb O-F residuals of the latest Version 7 L4_SM data (Science Version ID Vv7030 and Vv7032) [10,11,12]. In the L4_SM Version 7 algorithm, key parameters of the L-band radiative transfer model, including soil roughness, scattering albedo, and a (seasonally varying) climatology of vegetation opacity, are obtained from the SMAP Level-2 Radiometer retrieval product (Version 5) [1]. Additionally, we also use ground measurements of surface soil moisture and soil temperature from the SMAP core validation sites as in situ reference of soil conditions [2,3]. As part of the L4_SM system calibration, the seasonally-varying bias between the model forecast Tb and the observed values is removed prior to the assimilation of the SMAP Tb observations [7]. That is, the L4_SM system is designed to only correct errors in synoptic-scale and interannual variations from the long-term mean seasonal cycle while maintaining the model’s (potentially erroneous) climatology. The Tb O-F residuals examined here are thus computed using SMAP Tb observations after they are rescaled to the mean seasonal cycle of Tb from the modeling system without SMAP data assimilation. Consequently, the long-term average of the Tb O-F residuals has a global mean of only 0.13 K and locally small values, ranging from -1 to 3 K. Despite the small time-average values of the Tb O-F residuals, the model forecast Tb was nevertheless found to exhibit undesirable systematic errors. At some locations, the time-average Tb O-F values strongly depend on surface soil moisture (SM). At the Yanco SMAP core validation site, for example, the Tb O-F residuals typically range from 5 to 15 K under dry soil moisture conditions (SM < 0.15 m3 m-3) yet are predominantly negative under wet soil moisture conditions (SM > 0.25 m3 m-3), with values ranging from 0 to -40 K. This results in soil moisture analysis increments that persistently make the soil drier under dry SM conditions and persistently make the soil wetter under wet SM conditions, suggesting an error in the dynamic range of the simulated Tb, soil moisture or soil temperature. In this paper, we describe the higher-order systematic Tb forecast errors in more detail, examine their impact on the L4_SM product quality, and explore potential avenues to further improve the L4_SM algorithm.

Rolf Reichle↗

Acoustic sensors for fission gas characterization: R and D skills devoted to innovative instrumentation in MTR, non-destructive devices in hot lab facilities and specific transducers for measurements of LWR rods in nuclear plants

First of all, we will present the main principle of the method. A piezoelectric transducer, driven by a pulse generator, generates the acoustic waves in a cavity that may be the fuel rod or a chamber connected to an instrumented rod. The composition determination consists in measuring the time of flight of the acoustic signal emitted. The pressure can be estimated by a calibration process, above the measurement of the amplitude of the signal. Two projects will then be detailed. The first project consists in the development of advanced instrumentation for in-pile experiments in Material Testing Reactor. It constitutes a main goal for the improvement of the nuclear fuel behavior knowledge. This acoustic method was tested with success during a first experiment called REMORA 3, and the results were used to differentiate helium and fission gas release kinetics under transient operating conditions. This experiment was lead at OSIRIS reactor (CEA Saclay, France). As a first step of the development program, we performed in-pile tests on the most sensitive component, i.e., the piezoelectric transducer. For this purpose, the active part of this sensor has been qualified on gamma and neutron radiations and at high temperature. Various industrial piezo-ceramics were exposed to a high activity Cobalt source for few days. The cumulated dose was ranged from 50 kGy up to 2 MGy. Next, these devices were placed inside a Material Test Reactor to investigate their reliability towards neutron fluence. The final fluence after 150 days of irradiation was up to 1.6.10{sup 21}n/cm{sup 2} (for thermal neutron). Irreversible variations have been measured. Next, a specific sensor has been implemented on an instrumented fuel rod and tested in the frame of a REMORA 3 Irradiation test. It was the first experiment under high mixed, temperature neutron and gamma flux. A first irradiation phase took place in March 2010 in the OSIRIS reactor and in November 2010 for the second step of the irradiation. The instrumented fuel rod incorporating the ultrasonic gas composition sensor was finally irradiated during 2 weeks in nominal conditions. Neutronics calculation will be performed in order to calculate the thermal and fast neutron fluence and the gamma dose absorbed by acoustic sensor. A first evaluation gives a thermal fluence about 4,5.10{sup 19} n/cm{sup 2}, a fast neutrons fluence about 4,5.1018 n/cm{sup 2} and a total gamma dose up to 0,25 MGy The maximal temperature during the irradiation test was about 150 C. Although the ultrasonic sensor appears to be damaged, the optimization of the electrical attack parameters and the development of a new signal processing maintain the measurement feasibility up the end of the irradiation campaign. It was the first time that the composition of fission gas has been monitored all along an irradiation experiment in a MTR, giving access to the gas release kinetics. New researches involve thick film transducers produced by screen-printing process in order to propose piezoelectric structures for harsh temperature and irradiation measurements. The second project consists in the development of a non-destructive device that can be directly applied on a LWR fuel rod. The problem to be solved relates to the measurement of the fission gas pressure and composition in a fuel rod using a non-destructive method. Fuel rod internal pressure is one of the safety criteria applied in nuclear power analyses. This criterion must be verified in order to avoid any fuel-cladding gap reopening risk and therefore any local clad ballooning. Apart from the safety implications, this parameter is also a fuel behaviour indicator and reflects the overall fuel performance in operation, but also during shipping and long-term storage. Rod internal pressure is one criterion amongst others, like cladding corrosion, against which the acceptable fuel burn-up limit is set. A sensor has been achieved in 2007. A full-scale hot cell test of the internal gas pressure and composition measurement by an acoustic sensor was conducted successfully between 2008 and 2010 on 5 high burn-up MOX fuel rods and 2 very high burn-up UO{sub 2} fuel rods in LECA Facility at Cadarache Centre. An improvement of this sensor has been proposed, allowing us to divide by two the uncertainty on the pressure measurement. In the case of hot-cell measurements, viscous liquid can be used to couple the sensor with the rod. For gas content with a pressure exceeding 15 bars and a 10% Xe/Kr ratio, such coupling may reduce relative acoustic method accuracy by ±7% for pressure measurement result and ±0.25 % for the assessment of gas composition. These results make it possible to demonstrate the feasibility of the technique on LWR fuel rods. The transducer and the associated methodology are now operational for non-destructive measurements in hot lab facilities and allow characterising the fission gas without puncturing the fuel rods. Up to now, any other non-destructive method can be proposed. A next step will be the development of an industrial application in a fuel storage pool in order to perform a large number of measurements on a fuel assembly in nuclear plants.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Storage Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) is a fundamental component in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to increase the plant's dispatchability, capacity factor, while reducing the levelized cost of electricity. In central receivers CSP plants, nitrate molten salts have been used for several years for operation temperatures of up to 565 degrees C. Despite many efforts to advance nitrate salt to higher operation temperatures (even considering a replacement with molten chloride salts) to achieve higher energy conversion efficiencies, the 565 degrees C temperature is currently considered the state-of-the art. Although molten salt tanks have been broadly deployed in commercial CSP plants worldwide, several failures have been reported in these tanks after a few months or years of operation, causing significant economic loss and mistrust in CSP technologies. Most of these failures are associated with the infancy of the technology and multiple issues related to tank design, fabrication, commissioning, and aggressive operation. A technical standard dedicated to the design and fabrication of molten nitrate TES tanks does not exist today. Current in-service molten salt tanks have been generally designed based on the American Petroleum Institute's (API) 650 and ASME Section II standards. The API 650 code provides guidelines for dimensions and fabrication for oil storage tanks up to 260 degrees C. The ASME standard provides allowable stress values for various materials at a range of temperatures and conditions. Both standards seem to be limited for molten salt TES tanks where high temperatures, thermal cycling, and transient conditions are expected. In 2020, NREL released the Concentrating Solar Power Best Practices Study (NREL/TP-5500-75763) that summarized multiple issues in CSP plants, along with potential alternatives and recommendations to address those issues based on information collected from participants representing about 80% of operating CSP plants in the world. One of the recommendations from this study was the development of accurate and validated models to evaluate the plant's transient operation, capable of capturing the effect of short-term clouds and operator response, while being flexible in being adapted to various spatial and temporal resource data. The "Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants" project was inspired on this recommendation and was focused on (1) the development and validation of a physics-based model for a representative, commercial-scale molten salt tank, (2) performing simulations to evaluate the behavior of the tank as a function of typical plant operation conditions, (3) understanding tank failures mechanisms, (4) determining the residual stress and distortion in the tank floor after welding fabrication and evaluating their impact in the stresses developed in the tank during operation, (5) assessing the impact of key operation parameters on the temperature and stress distribution, (6) conduct a preliminary evaluation of design features to reduce stress and improve tank's reliability, and (7) estimate the tank's service life based on the stress developed under diverse operation scenarios. From the analysis conducted in the project and presented in this report, it was found that maximum stresses surpassing the yield strength point of the stainless steel (SS) 347H are developed on the tank floor near the perimeter. These large stresses are strongly influenced by the initial residual stresses and distortion of the tank floor after welding fabrication. During operation, large stresses are developed in the tank floor at high operation temperatures with large salt inventory levels during transient operation. High stresses are also related to elevated temperature gradients in the tank floor that could be attributed to insufficient mixing within the salt inflow and the salt inventory. Based on the analysis, creep is the predominant failure mechanism. However, the large stress levels could favor the plastic deformation into buckles, and crack formation due to stress relaxation cracking during cycle operation. A lifetime below 3 years was estimated for the typical plant operation conditions and a specific initial residual stress and deformation distribution of the tank floor. The estimated life agrees with the service time to failure reported in several commercial molten salt tanks. Desing and operation guidelines can be extracted from the analysis presented in this report, which could be adopted by tank manufacturers and CSP operators to advance toward an ultimate solution for tank failures by reducing residual and operational stresses to achieve a tank service life of more than 30 years. Addressing failures in molten salt TES tanks is fundamental for the CSP industry's survivability, but it is also important for other industrial and power generation applications using this technology, including nuclear and concentrating solar thermal.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Acoustic Emission signal acquired by the microphones placed in the CABRI test device along the fourteen last R.I.A. experiments: an example of reproducible research in nuclear science

The CABRI facility is an experimental nuclear reactor of the French Atomic Energy Commission. It is located at the Cadarache Research Centre in southern France and it is designed to act as a support to the French nuclear infrastructure. The purpose of the new testing programme termed, 'CABRI International Programme' (CIP) is to study the behaviour of PWR-type fuel rods at high burnup, equipped with an 'advanced' cladding, under Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) conditions (such as the scenario of a control rod ejection). Within the framework of this programme, piloted and funded by the French Institute of Nuclear Radioprotection and Safety (IRSN), ten tests are to be conducted with a frequency of two tests per year. The LPRE laboratory of the CEA which is in charge of the Preparation, realisation and breakdown of the test results studies the possibility to set up a new test analysis based on the processing of signals coming from sensors placed within the test equipment. During the experimental phase, the behaviour of the fuel element generates acoustic waves which can be detected by two microphones placed upstream and downstream of the test device. Studies showed the interest to realize temporal and spectral analyses on these signals by showing the existence of signatures which can be correlated with physical phenomena as the rod failure or the test shutdown (i.e. scram). The work presented in this article results from the will to consolidate these studies. Since the main phenomenon to be tracked is the fuel rod failure, the aim would be to highlight specific events which would have been precursors of the rod failure in order to use in the future these signals for further interpretation. Such an antecedent works resumption leads to a better understanding of the experimental needs and constitutes a good initial state to prepare the new very fast digital data acquisition systems. Although all the raw data are accessible in the form of text files, analyses and graphics representations were not straightforward to reproduce from the ancient studies since that, on one hand, people who were in charge of the original work left the laboratory and on the other hand because it is not easy when the time passes, even with our own work, to be able to remember the steps of data manipulations and the exact setup: - During the ancient experiments the use of analog data acquisition systems required to digitize tapes to be able to realize computer treatments. That had had for consequence to lose the initial dating. This one must be correctly edited to do temporal comparisons. - Analyses require functions for calculations whose parameters has to be well-known to reach the same results. We thus wished to manage our workflow in the idea that it can be easily reproducible on all the experiments. The object of the work presented in this article was to put in practice this strong bind between the data, treatments and generation of the document in order not to hesitate to do the iteration principle in action. We do not have to be afraid by the data driven analyses. According to the philosophy of the literate programming, the text of the technical document is woven with the computer code that produces all the printed output as tables, graphs for the study eliminating hence the unrealistic cut and paste. This difficulty is not specific to the nuclear domain. For many years, researchers have been worked out solutions to this mundane issue. And, presently, new technologies and high-level programming languages offer us actual answers. We will firstly present the tools applied in our laboratory to implement this workflow, then we will describe the global perception carried out to continue the study of the Acoustic Emission signals recorded by the two microphones during the fourteen last CABRI R.I.A. test.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

An Integrated Supercritical System for Efficient Produced Water Treatment and Power Generation

The main goal of this project was to evaluate the feasibility of an integrated supercritical (SC) water desalination and power generation system for treatment of produced waters from CO 2 sequestration, oil production, and coal-bed methane recovery. This system may offer a transformative approach to generating power from coal or natural gas (NG) and purifying saline water or produced water with high total dissolved solids (TDS) in a zero-liquid discharge plant. The closed-loop steam cycle of conventional power plants was replaced with an open-loop steam cycle that heated the pretreated produced water above the SC point of water (374 °C and 221 bar) to precipitate and separate the salts dissolved in the water. After separation of the precipitated salt, the SC steam required further treatment to reduce the salt content from ~100 mg/L (ppm) to <1 ppm to make it suitable for use in turbines for power generation. A SC membrane distillation unit was used to polish the SC steam, which could be sent through a series of turbines for power generation, and the steam exiting the low-pressure turbine could be condensed by cooling water to produce pure water. Project tasks included a process simulation and a techno-economic evaluation of the integrated system; design and assembly of SC salt precipitation and membrane distillation systems; development and characterization of advanced carbon membranes for SC membrane distillation; and pretreatment, desalination, and purification of different produced water samples with salt concentrations of 30,000–200,000 ppm to a high-purity (<1 ppm) level. Process simulations were performed for 550 MW SC coal-fired or NG baseline cases and various scenarios for the proposed integrated SC system using produced water as the water source and coal or NG as the fuel source. Simulation results indicated that the net plant efficiency loss of the proposed SC cogeneration process would be in the range of <1% to ~4%, in which NG and lower TDS produced water cases would have higher efficiencies. The proposed process for coal-fired cases could provide all water needs for the power generation process and generate additional pure water for beneficial use. A techno-economic analysis was performed to estimate the cost of produced water treatment (dollars /kgal of treated water) by conventional treatment processes compared with the proposed cogeneration process. The cost estimation for the proposed cogeneration system included the cost of pretreatment, the cost of power loss to integrate the water desalination process into the power generation system, and the cost of plant modification or retrofitting. The cost of produced water treatment was calculated by assuming three different scenarios in which converting a baseline power plant to the proposed cogeneration plant would increase the cost of the boiler and feed water system by 10%, 50%, and 100%. Results indicated that the cost of produced water treatment, even with a 100% cost increase, was in the range of $8.6–11.6 dollars per kgal, which is about half of the treatment cost by conventional methods. The cost of produced water treatment by the proposed cogeneration system could be further reduced or a considerable income could be generated if the values of saltwater and freshwater products are considered. Overall, the techno-economic analysis results indicated that the proposed integrated SC system could potentially treat produced water at a cost significantly lower than the cost of produced water treatment by conventional technologies. To evaluate the feasibility of the proposed treatment system at a laboratory scale, a SC salt precipitation and membrane distillation system was designed and fabricated to treat a simulated brine or pretreated produced water by precipitating salts and further polishing the SC steam containing ~100 ppm salts to a high-purity steam. Through baseline tests with NaCl solutions, with concentrations ranging from 30,000 to 200,000 ppm, it was demonstrated that concentrated feed solutions could be treated by precipitating salt at SC conditions to a TDS level of 130 ppm. Produced water samples were collected from a potential CO 2 sequestration site, a coal-bed methane site, and an oilfield in Illinois. Representative samples were characterized for various water quality parameters, including pH; turbidity; conductivity; and concentrations of selected anions, cations, alkalinity, dissolved organic carbon, total suspended solids, TDS, and total petroleum hydrocarbons. The produced water samples were first treated by conventional pretreatment methods to remove residual oil, dissolved organic matter, and scale-forming species. Pretreatment methods included coagulation, sedimentation, filtration, activated carbon adsorption, and ion-exchange adsorption. Pretreated produced waters were treated at SC conditions in which salts were precipitated. Analysis of treated samples revealed that the concentration of Na (the main cation) in produced waters was reduced dramatically from 14,000–47,400 ppm in the feed to 21–80 ppm in treated waters. Concentrations of other main cations (Ca, Mg, Sr, K) also decreased significantly from initial values of ~1,000–22,000 ppm to ~1 ppm or less. However, a significant increase in the concentrations of Fe, Ni, Cu, and Co was observed, mainly caused by leaching of these elements from the system (vessels, filters, tubing), which is manufactured from alloys containing Fe, Ni, Cu, and Co. To polish the SC steam containing a salt content of ~100 ppm to a high-purity level of <1 ppm, a SC membrane distillation treatment using carbon membranes was employed. Different types of self-standing or supported carbon membranes were developed from graphite, graphene, carbon nanotubes, carbon nanofibers, and pyrolytic carbon. Screening tests revealed that only a limited number of developed carbon membranes were suitable for the purification of steam at SC conditions. Membranes that were either fragile and lacked mechanical strength or had large pores and showed limited salt rejection (<20%) were found to be unsuitable for the purification of SC steam. Promising carbon membranes that were successfully tested for purifying SC steam included two graphite membranes (i.e., AF-5, a porous graphite material, and FGS, a flexible graphite sheet) and a carbon nanotube membrane grown on a Hastelloy substrate and then further modified using a proprietary method (i.e., membrane C). The AF-5 membrane exhibited a stable water flux of ~50 kg/m 2 ∙h and ~40% salt rejection. The FGS membrane had a high salt rejection of 95%–98% but a lower water flux of ~15 kg/m 2 ∙h. Membrane C showed an extremely high flux of 200-800 kg/m 2 ∙h, which is one order of magnitude higher than the water flux of conventional membranes. Membrane C also exhibited 87%–93% salt rejection. Overall, a two-stage or multistage polishing treatment by these membranes could lower the salt content of the SC steam from initial values of ~100–200 ppm to the steam quality of <1 ppm or to parts per billion levels required for the power cycle.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

Brachytherapy structural shielding calculations using Monte Carlo generated, monoenergetic data

Purpose: To provide a method for calculating the transmission of any broad photon beam with a known energy spectrum in the range of 20–1090 keV, through concrete and lead, based on the superposition of corresponding monoenergetic data obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. Methods: MCNP5 was used to calculate broad photon beam transmission data through varying thickness of lead and concrete, for monoenergetic point sources of energy in the range pertinent to brachytherapy (20–1090 keV, in 10 keV intervals). The three parameter empirical model introduced byArcher et al. [“Diagnostic x-ray shielding design based on an empirical model of photon attenuation,” Health Phys. 44, 507–517 (1983)] was used to describe the transmission curve for each of the 216 energy-material combinations. These three parameters, and hence the transmission curve, for any polyenergetic spectrum can then be obtained by superposition along the lines of Kharrati et al. [“Monte Carlo simulation of x-ray buildup factors of lead and its applications in shielding of diagnostic x-ray facilities,” Med. Phys. 34, 1398–1404 (2007)]. A simple program, incorporating a graphical user interface, was developed to facilitate the superposition of monoenergetic data, the graphical and tabular display of broad photon beam transmission curves, and the calculation of material thickness required for a given transmission from these curves. Results: Polyenergetic broad photon beam transmission curves of this work, calculated from the superposition of monoenergetic data, are compared to corresponding results in the literature. A good agreement is observed with results in the literature obtained from Monte Carlo simulations for the photon spectra emitted from bare point sources of various radionuclides. Differences are observed with corresponding results in the literature for x-ray spectra at various tube potentials, mainly due to the different broad beam conditions or x-ray spectra assumed. Conclusions: The data of this work allow for the accurate calculation of structural shielding thickness, taking into account the spectral variation with shield thickness, and broad beam conditions, in a realistic geometry. The simplicity of calculations also obviates the need for the use of crude transmission data estimates such as the half and tenth value layer indices. Although this study was primarily designed for brachytherapy, results might also be useful for radiology and nuclear medicine facility design, provided broad beam conditions apply.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Microstructural analysis of undoped and moderately Sc-doped TiO2 anatase nanoparticles using Scherrer equation and Debye function analysis

Highlights: • UV light sensitive undoped and moderate Sc-doped anatase nanocrystallites were prepared without post-synthesis annealing. • Elongated nanocrystallites were found by Scherrer equation and Debye Function Analysis applied to XRD data and also HRTEM. • 4 at.% Sc doping reduced the amount of Ti vacancies by half. • Doping showed ~0.3% growth of lattice parameters. - Abstract: UV light sensitive undoped and moderate (4 at.%) Sc-doped anatase nanocrystallites were prepared by an efficient and environmentally benign method based on homogeneous hydrolysis of TiOSO{sub 4} and Sc{sub 2}(C{sub 2}O{sub 4}){sub 3.5}H{sub 2}O aqueous solutions using urea as a precipitation agent, without post-synthesis calcination or annealing. X-ray diffraction study of the obtained powders revealed single phase anatase in both samples. Two different methods were applied to estimate the anatase crystallite size and shape from the X-ray diffraction data. The first one is based on the more conventional Scherrer equation (as implanted in GSAS-II program) while the second one is based on Debye function analysis (as implanted in DUBUSSY suite version 2.2), which is considered to be more adequate for nanocrystallites. Although each program has its own shape models, both methods indicated similar results of elongated nanocrystallite geometry for Sc-doped TiO{sub 2}: (i) GSAS-II confirmed ellipsoid shape with equatorial size of 5.1(0) nm and axial size of 6.8(0), (ii) DEBUSSY suite 2.2 showed cylinder shape with diameter of equivalent circle in the ab-plane, D{sub ab} = 4.9(1.0) nm and crystallite length along the c-axis, L{sub c} = 5.4(3.2) nm. For the undoped TiO{sub 2} sample, equatorial size of 5.5(0) nm and axial size of 7.3(0) nm for the ellipsoid shape was determined according to GSAS-II, while D{sub ab} = 5.5(1.3) nm and L{sub c} = 6.0(2.2) nm for the cylinder shape was determined by DEBUSSY suite 2.2. These outcomes were found to corroborate with HRTEM analysis. Doping with 4 at.% Sc caused ~0.3% growth of lattice parameters from a = 3.7979 [4] Å, c = 9.4995 [9] Å for the undoped sample to a = 3.8110 [7] Å, c = 9.5274 [16] Å for the moderately Sc doped sample, while reduction in the Ti vacancies by half was confirmed by both methods. The introducing of Sc as electronically active secondary species into the crystal lattice of TiO{sub 2} can greatly alter its optical absorption. The incorporation of Sc into the crystal lattice of TiO{sub 2} favors the substitution of Ti, as both have approximately the same ionic size, and generates surface oxygen vacancies which can act as trapping center for the photogenerated electrons and reduce the recombination of electron–hole pairs. We can expect Sc doped TiO{sub 2} nanomaterials to have applications as effective photocatalysts for selective photocatalytic oxidation of various environmental organic pollutants.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Development of a Microchannel High Temperature Recuperator for Fuel Cell Systems

This report summarizes the progress made in development of microchannel recuperators for high temperature fuel cell/turbine hybrid systems for generation of clean power at very high efficiencies. Both Solid Oxide Fuel Cell/Turbine (SOFC/T) and Direct FuelCell/Turbine (DFC/T) systems employ an indirectly heated Turbine Generator to supplement fuel cell generated power. The concept extends the high efficiency of the fuel cell by utilizing the fuel cell’s byproduct heat in a Brayton cycle. Features of the SOFC/T and DFC/T systems include: electrical efficiencies of up to 65% on natural gas, minimal emissions, reduced carbon dioxide release to the environment, simplicity in design, and potential cost competitiveness with existing combined cycle power plants. Project work consisted of candidate material selection from FuelCell Energy (FCE) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) institutional databases as well as from industrial and academic literature. Candidate materials were then downselected and actual samples were tested under representative environmental conditions resulting in further downselection. A microchannel thermal-mechanical model was developed to calculate overall device cost to be later used in developing a final Tier 1 material candidate list. Specifications and operating conditions were developed for both SOFC/T and DFC/T systems. This development included system conceptualization and progression to process flow diagrams (PFD’s) including all major equipment. Material and energy balances were then developed for the two types of systems which were then used for extensive sensitivity studies that used high temperature recuperator (HTR) design parameters (e.g., operating temperature) as inputs and calculated overall system parameters (e.g., system efficiency). The results of the sensitivity studies determined the final HTR design temperatures, pressure drops, and gas compositions. The results also established operating conditions and specifications for all equipment in the SOFC/T and DFC/T systems. Capital cost and Cost of Electricity (COE) sensitivity analyses have been completed for MW-scale SOFC/T and DFC/T systems. Environmental testing consisted of 1000-hour and 2000-hour dry air oxidation testing on leading candidate materials, used to rank order and, in part, develop a final Tier 1 material candidate list. A thermal-mechanical model was subsequently used to provide material and manufacturing cost estimations for microchannel HTR’s to further refine the Tier 1 candidates. A capital cost and 20-year levelized cost of electricity (COE) was developed for a MW-scale version of the SOFC/T system concept as well as for a MW-scale version of the DFC/T system concept. Test frameworks were established for subsequent long-term materials stability testing, including oxidation resistance and mechanical strength. Mechanical strength testing was then carried out by a third-party test laboratory. Technology demonstration vehicles (TDV’s) were designed and fabricated. Several iterations of TDV’s were fabricated, each improved over the previous build as far as fabrication techniques. Two of three fabricated TDV’s were integrated with the TDV Test Facility for hot-testing at simulated operating conditions. The second of these two was successfully hot-tested for over 1000 hours at simulated temperature and pressure. Post-test leakdown assessment showed negligible leakage at benchtop conditions of 30 psig, a considerable improvement over the previous TDV’s.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics↗

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

Accuracy Assessment of Global Internal-Tide Models Using Satellite Altimetry Models Using Satellite Altimetry

Altimeter measurements are corrected for several geophysical parameters in order to access ocean signals of interest, like mesoscale or sub-mesoscale variability. The ocean tide is one of the most critical corrections due to the amplitude of the tidal elevations and to the aliasing phenomena of high-frequency signals into the lower-frequency band, but the internal-tide signatures at the ocean surface are not yet corrected globally. Internal tides can have a signature of several centimeters at the surface with wavelengths of about 50–250 km for the first mode and even smaller scales for higher-order modes. The goals of the upcoming Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission and other high-resolution ocean measurements make the correction of these small-scale signals a challenge, as the correction of all tidal variability becomes mandatory to access accurate measurements of other oceanic signals. In this context, several scientific teams are working on the development of new internal-tide models, taking advantage of the very long altimeter time series now available, which represent an unprecedented and valuable global ocean database. The internal-tide models presented here focus on the coherent internal-tide signal and they are of three types: empirical models based upon analysis of existing altimeter missions, an assimilative model and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. A detailed comparison and validation of these internal-tide models is proposed using existing satellite altimeter databases. The analysis focuses on the four main tidal constituents: M2, K1, O1 and S2. The validation process is based on a statistical analysis of multi-mission altimetry including Jason-2 and Cryosphere Satellite-2 data. The results show a significant altimeter variance reduction when using internal-tide corrections in all ocean regions where internal tides are generating or propagating. A complementary spectral analysis also gives some estimation of the performance of each model as a function of wavelength and some insight into the residual non-stationary part of internal tides in the different regions of interest. This work led to the implementation of a new internal-tide correction (ZARON'one) in the next geophysical data records version-F (GDR-F) standards.

Loren Carrere↗

Simulation of Physics-Based 0-10Hz Strong Motion Using High Performance Computing Supporting Refinements to Regional Ground Motion Models for the Central Eastern US

In collaboration with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) the LLNL has developed a computationally efficient simulation platform designed to perform physics-based ground motion simulations for crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using high-performance computing. The main objective of the earthquake simulations was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of existing ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-10Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model (1994). In simulations performed during the first stage of this project the Saikia’s velocity model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for the CEUS region recorded during the Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma (Taylor et al., 2017), and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes. The proposed regional 3D model includes random perturbations to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors (2021). In addition, validation analysis of the rupture generator and regional wave propagation models, using comparisons with different GMMs for Mw6.5 and Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes in the CEUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. For the purposes of seismic hazard assessment at the existing and planned nuclear power plants, NRC is interested in studies aimed at improving the current ground motion models (GMM) for both Stable Continental Regions (SCR) in the Central and Eastern US and Active Crustal Regions (ACR) in the Western US. Due to lack of recorded data, these improvements require synthetic data for short fault distances and large magnitude earthquakes for which the existing recorded data is not enough to uniquely constrain the GMMs. The need for simulations and strong motion data is especially critical for the CEUS region where we do not have recorded data from potentially large damaging earthquakes with moment magnitudes 6.0 and higher. In this the project, we focused on 10Hz simulations of Mw7.0 scenario earthquakes with strike slip and thrust faulting mechanisms. We used more than 50 Mw7.0 earthquake rupture scenarios to investigate the ground motion uncertainty due to unknown earthquake rupture parameters, in particular, the slip distribution, rupture velocity, and faulting mechanism, and their implication on ground motion amplification due to forward rupture directivity effects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗