Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “error estimation and analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,621 records · Page 90

Evaluation of High Mountain Asia-Land Data Assimilation System (version 1) from 2003 to 2016: 2. The impact of assimilating satellite-based snow cover and freeze/thaw observations into a land surface model

This second paper of the two-part series focuses on demonstrating the impact of assimilating satellite-based snow cover and freeze/thaw observations into the hyper-resolution, offline terrestrial modeling system used for the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region from 2003 to 2016. To this end, this study systematically evaluates a total of six sets of 0.01° (∼1 km) model simulations forced by different precipitation forcings, with and without the dual assimilation scheme enabled, at point-scale, basin-scale, and domain-scale. The key variables of interest include surface net shortwave radiation, surface net longwave radiation, skin temperature, near-surface soil temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and total runoff. First, the point-scale assessment is mainly conducted via evaluating against ground-based measurements. In general, the assimilation enabled estimates are better than no-assimilation counterparts. Second, the basin-scale runoff assessment demonstrates that across three snow-dominated basins, the assimilation enabled experiment yields systematic improvements in all goodness-of-fit statistics through mitigating the negative effects brought by the fixed long-term precipitation correction factors. For example, when forced by the bias-corrected precipitation, the assimilation-enabled experiment improves the bias by 69%, the root-mean-squared error by 30%, and the unbiased root-mean-squared error by 18% (relative to the no-assimilation counterpart). Finally, the domainscale assessment is conducted via evaluating against satellite-based SWE and skin temperature products. Both sets of domain-scale analysis further corroborate the findings in the point-scale evaluations. Overall, this study suggests the benefits of the proposed multi-variate assimilation system in improving the cryospherichydrological process within a land surface model for use in HMA.

Yuan Xue↗

Analysis and forecast intercomparisons using the FGGE SOP-1 data base

The First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) data base has provided the research community with the most complete global coverage of meteorological informaiton since measurements were first taken. It is important to understand the characteristics of the FGGE data base in terms of its accuracy and representativeness compared to the true state of the atmosphere. The uncertainty associated with the initial conditions used in a numerical model plays a significant role in subsequent error growth as shown by predictability theory. The ultimate limit of forecast skill is directly related to the initial uncertainty. The accuracy of analyses using FGGE data base coupled with the errors due to modeling imperfections determines the present skill of numerical models. An estimte of initial uncertainty is determined by examining differences in several FGGE analyses. The estimate is then used to determine an ultimate limit of forecast skill from derived predictability error growth rates. Several different calculations of predictability error growth are also compared. Finally, present-day forecast skill using FGGE analyses is contrasted to the estimates of ultimate skill, and the partition of model error versus initial uncertainty is discussed.

Baumhefner, D. P.↗

Analysis of Pulsed Lidar Measurements of Atmospheric CO2 Column Absorption During the ASCENDS 2009-2011 Airborne Campaigns

We have developed a pulsed lidar technique for measuring the tropospheric CO2 concentrations as a candidate for NASA's ASCENDS mission and have demonstrated the CO2 and O2 measurements from aircraft. Our technique uses two pulsed lasers allowing simultaneous measurement of a single CO2 absorption line near 1572 nm, O2 extinction in the Oxygen A-band, surface height and backscatter profile. The lasers are stepped in wavelength across the CO2 line and an O2 line doublet during the measurement. The column densities for the CO2 and O2 are estimated from the differential optical depths (DOD) of the scanned absorption lines via the IPDA technique. For the 2009 ASCENDS campaign we flew the CO2 lidar on a Lear-25 aircraft, and measured the absorption line shapes of the CO2 line using 20 wavelength samples per scan. Measurements were made at stepped altitudes from 3 to 12.6 km over the Lamont OK, central Illinois, North Carolina, and over the Virginia Eastern Shore. Although the received signal energies were weaker than expected for ASCENDS, clear CO2 line shapes were observed at all altitudes. Most flights had 5-6 altitude steps with 200-300 seconds of recorded measurements per step. We averaged every 10 seconds of measurements and used a cross-correlation approach to estimate the range to the scattering surface and the echo pulse energy at each wavelength. We then solved for the best-fit CO2 absorption line shape, and calculated the DOD of the fitted CO2 line, and computed its statistics at the various altitude steps. We compared them to CO2 optical depths calculated from spectroscopy based on HITRAN 2008 and the column number densities calculated from the airborne in-situ readings. The 2009 measurements have been analyzed and they were similar on all flights. The results show clear CO2 line shape and absorption signals, which follow the expected changes with aircraft altitude from 3 to 13 km. They showed the expected nearly the linear dependence of DOD vs altitude. The measurements showed ~ 1 ppm random errors for 8-10 km altitudes and ~30 sec averaging times. For the 2010 ASCENDS campaigns we flew the CO2lidar on the NASA DC-8 and added an 02lidar channel. During July 2010 we made measurements of CO2 and O2 column absorption during longer flights over Railroad Valley NV, the Pacific Ocean and over Lamont OK. CO2 measurements were made with 30 steps/scan, 300 scans/sec and improved line resolution and receiver sensitivity. Analysis of the 2010 CO2 measurements shows the expected ~linear change of DOD with altitude. For measurements at altitudes> 6 km the random errors were 0.3 ppm for 80 sec averaging times. For the summer 2011 ASCENDS campaigns we made further improvements to the lidar's CO2 line scan and receiver sensitivity. We demonstrated measurements over the California Central Valley, to stratus cloud tops over the Pacific Ocean, over mountain regions with snow, and over several areas with broken clouds. Details of the lidar measurements and their analysis will be described in the presentation.

Abshire, J. B.↗

The clustering of the SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey quasar sample: testing observational systematics on the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation measurement

ABSTRACT Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) are considered to be a very robust standard ruler against various systematics. This premise has been tested against observational systematics, but not to the level required for the next generation of galaxy surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and Euclid. In this paper, we investigate the effect of observational systematics on the BAO measurement of the final sample of quasars from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey Data Release 16 in order to prepare and hone a similar analysis for upcoming surveys. We employ catalogues with various treatments of imaging systematic effects using linear and neural network-based non-linear approaches and consider how the BAO measurement changes. We also test how the variations to the BAO fitting model respond to the observational systematics. As expected, we confirm that the BAO measurements obtained from the DR16 quasar sample are robust against imaging systematics well within the statistical error, while reporting slightly modified constraints that shift the line-of-sight BAO signal by less than 1.1 per cent. We use realistic simulations with similar redshift and angular distributions as the DR16 sample to conduct statistical tests for validating the pipeline, quantifying the significance of differences, and estimating the expected bias on the BAO scale in future high-precision data sets. Although we find a marginal impact for the eBOSS QSO data, the work presented here is of vital importance for constraining the nature of dark energy with the BAO feature in the new era of big data cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Interactive Spectral Analysis Tool for Chemical Identification and Quantification of Gas-Phase Species in Complex Spectra

A spectral analysis tool has been developed to interactively identify and quantify individual gas-phase species from complex infrared absorbance spectra obtained from laboratory or field data. The SpecQuant program has an intuitive graphical interface that accommodates both reference and experimental data with varying resolution and instrumental lineshape, as well as algorithms to readily align the wavenumber axis of a sample spectrum with the raster of a reference spectrum. Using a classical least squares model in conjunction with reference spectra such as those from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) gas-phase infrared database or simulated spectra derived from the HITRAN line-by-line database, the mixing ratio of each identified species is determined along with its associated estimation error. After correcting the wavelength and intensity of the field data, SpecQuant displays the calculated mixing ratio versus the experimental data for each analyte along with the residual spectrum with any or all analyte fits subtracted for visual inspection of the fit and residuals. The software performance for multianalyte quantification was demonstrated using moderate resolution (0.5 cm –1 ) infrared spectra that were collected during the time-resolved infrared photolysis of methyl iodide.

Thompson, Christopher J.↗

The Mechanics of Atmospheric Systems Derived Through Vertical and Horizontal Analysis of Parametric Data

For 36 hours during April 1975, an atmospheric variability experiment was conducted. This research effort supported an observational program in which rawinsonde data, radar data, and satellite data were collected from a network of 42 stations east of the Rocky Mountains at intervals of 3 hours. This program presents data with a high degree of time resolution over a spatially and temporally extensive network. Reduction of the experiment data is intended primarily as a documentation of the checking and processing of the data and should be useful to prospective users. Various flow diagrams of the data processing procedures are described, and a complete summary of the formulas used in the data processing is provided. A wind computation scheme designed to extract as much detailed wind information as possible from the unique experiment data set is discussed. The accuracy of the thermodynamic and wind data were estimated. Errors in the thermodynamic and wind data are given.

Turner, R. E.↗

Methods for analysis of cracks in three-dimensional solids

Various analytical and numerical methods used to evaluate the stress intensity factors for cracks in three-dimensional (3-D) solids are reviewed. Classical exact solutions and many of the approximate methods used in 3-D analyses of cracks are reviewed. The exact solutions for embedded elliptic cracks in infinite solids are discussed. The approximate methods reviewed are the finite element methods, the boundary integral equation (BIE) method, the mixed methods (superposition of analytical and finite element method, stress difference method, discretization-error method, alternating method, finite element-alternating method), and the line-spring model. The finite element method with singularity elements is the most widely used method. The BIE method only needs modeling of the surfaces of the solid and so is gaining popularity. The line-spring model appears to be the quickest way to obtain good estimates of the stress intensity factors. The finite element-alternating method appears to yield the most accurate solution at the minimum cost.

Raju, I. S.↗

An analysis of the AVE-SESAME I period using statistical structure and correlation functions

Structure and correlation functions are used to describe atmospheric variability during the 10-11 April day of AVE-SESAME 1979 that coincided with the Red River Valley tornado outbreak. The special mesoscale rawinsonde data are employed in calculations involving temperature, geopotential height, horizontal wind speed and mixing ratio. Functional analyses are performed in both the lower and upper troposphere for the composite 24 h experiment period and at individual 3 h observation times. Results show that mesoscale features are prominent during the composite period. Fields of mixing ratio and horizontal wind speed exhibit the greatest amounts of small-scale variance, whereas temperature and geopotential height contain the least. Results for the nine individual times show that small-scale variance is greatest during the convective outbreak. The functions also are used to estimate random errors in the rawinsonde data. Finally, sensitivity analyses are presented to quantify confidence limits of the structure functions.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

Estimating Alpine Snow Depth by Combining Multi-Frequency Passive Radiance Observations with Ensemble Snowpack Modeling

This paper presents a physically-based snow depth retrieval algorithm adapted for deep mountainous snowpack and airborne multifrequency (10.7, 18.7, 37.0 and 89.0 GHz) passive microwave (PM) radiance observations from a single flight. The algorithm employs a single forecast-analysis cycle of a traditional sequential assimilation scheme. It uses an ensemble of multi-layer snowpack model runs to resolve snow microstructure and melt-refreeze crusts, andmicrowave radiative transfer models to relate snow properties to microwave measurements.Snow depth was retrieved at a 120 m spatial resolution over three 1 km2 Intensive Study Area (ISA) within the Rabbit Ears Meso-Cell Study Area (MSA) from the NASA Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) in Colorado (United States) for one date in February 2003. When evaluated against in situ observations, root mean square error (RMSE) of the snow depth from the assimilation was 13.3 cm for areas with low (<5 %) forest cover, which was a reduction of 48 % in the RMSE compared with the modeled snow depth when the PM observations were not assimilated; indicating a ~5% relative error of the posterior snow depth with respect to the average snow depth (200 cm) measured at these pixels. For pixels with forest cover ranging from 5-15% and 15-30%, results were improved (R2 increased from 0.65 to 0.71 and from 0 to 0.38, respectively) by introducing a forest radiative transfer model during the assimilation.

Airborne Multifrequency↗

Effects of Injected Current Streams on MHD Equilibrium Reconstruction of Local Helicity Injection Plasmas in a Spherical Tokamak

Open field line currents are intrinsic to DC helicity injection plasma startup and pose a challenge for inferring the plasma equilibrium with standard reconstruction analysis. Local helicity injection (LHI) is a type of DC helicity injection which uses small, modular current sources to drive force-free current along helical field lines to produce tokamak plasmas. MHD modeling and magnetic measurements during LHI indicate the injected current streams remain coherent as helical structures on the outboard edge of a core toroidal plasma that is tokamak-like in a toroidally averaged sense. To extract core plasma equilibrium properties, external magnetic diagnostics corrected for contributions from the injected current streams are fitted by a standard Grad-Shafranov equilibrium code. An iterative approach for estimating and subtracting the stream contributions from the diagnostic signals is described and applied to a model equilibrium database to reduce systematic errors introduced by the streams. Convergence is usually attained with 2 to 4 iterations, with derived equilibrium parameters matching the prescribed axisymmetric core values to within estimated experimental uncertainties. Accurate recovery of core parameters occurs when the ratio of the net toroidal windup current from the streams to the core plasma current is less than 0.2, which is typically satisfied in most experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Soil carbon stocks from soil organic carbon at the Teller 47, Teller 27, and Kougarok 86 field sites, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2021 – 2023

Carbon stored in permafrost soils represents the largest terrestrial storage and hence has key significance for the global carbon cycle, yet the site-specific estimates of permafrost soil carbon are limited. To better understand permafrost carbon storage, soil organic content (SOC) was measured from soils collected at the Teller 27, Teller 47, and Kougarok 86 field sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in the summers of 2019 and 2021-2023. Soil samples were collected from locations with and without near-surface permafrost to varied depths within the permafrost, where present. In addition to sample collection for soil organic carbon analysis, bulk density samples were also collected within each soil profile to allow for calculation of carbon stocks. Carbon to nitrogen ratios are also reported. Location data were collected at each observation point using a handheld GPS unit with waypoint averaging to reduce location measurement error to within 3 m. SOC was measured using elemental analysis in the laboratory. This dataset contains a *.csv file of soil carbon stocks, a *.kml file of measurement locations, a *.pdf user guide, a *.csv data dictionary, and a *.csv file level metadata.

EARTH SCIENCE > CRYOSPHERE > FROZEN GROUND↗

Unified aeroacoustics analysis for high speed turboprop aerodynamics and noise. Volume 4: Computer user's manual for UAAP turboprop aeroacoustic code

The Unified AeroAcoustic Program (UAAP) code calculates the airloads on a single rotation prop-fan, or propeller, and couples these airloads with an acoustic radiation theory, to provide estimates of near-field or far-field noise levels. The steady airloads can also be used to calculate the nonuniform velocity components in the propeller wake. The airloads are calculated using a three dimensional compressible panel method which considers the effects of thin, cambered, multiple blades which may be highly swept. These airloads may be either steady or unsteady. The acoustic model uses the blade thickness distribution and the steady or unsteady aerodynamic loads to calculate the acoustic radiation. The users manual for the UAAP code is divided into five sections: general code description; input description; output description; system description; and error codes. The user must have access to IMSL10 libraries (MATH and SFUN) for numerous calls made for Bessel functions and matrix inversion. For plotted output users must modify the dummy calls to plotting routines included in the code to system-specific calls appropriate to the user's installation.

Menthe, R. W.↗

Theoretical Calculation and Validation of the Water Vapor Continuum Absorption

The primary objective of this investigation is the development of an improved parameterization of the water vapor continuum absorption through the refinement and validation of our existing theoretical formalism. The chief advantage of our approach is the self-consistent, first principles, basis of the formalism which allows us to predict the frequency, temperature and pressure dependence of the continuum absorption as well as provide insights into the physical mechanisms responsible for the continuum absorption. Moreover, our approach is such that the calculated continuum absorption can be easily incorporated into satellite retrieval algorithms and climate models. Accurate determination of the water vapor continuum is essential for the next generation of retrieval algorithms which propose to use the combined constraints of multi-spectral measurements such as those under development for EOS data analysis (e.g., retrieval algorithms based on MODIS and AIRS measurements); current Pathfinder activities which seek to use the combined constraints of infrared and microwave (e.g., HIRS and MSU) measurements to improve temperature and water profile retrievals, and field campaigns which seek to reconcile spectrally-resolved and broad-band measurements such as those obtained as part of FIRE. Current widely used continuum treatments have been shown to produce spectrally dependent errors, with the magnitude of the error dependent on temperature and abundance which produces errors with a seasonal and latitude dependence. Translated into flux, current water vapor continuum parameterizations produce flux errors of order 10 W/ml, which compared to the 4 W/m' magnitude of the greenhouse gas forcing and the 1-2 W/m' estimated aerosol forcing is certainly climatologically significant and unacceptably large. While it is possible to tune the empirical formalisms, the paucity of laboratory measurements, especially at temperatures of interest for atmospheric applications, preclude tuning the empirical continuum models over the full spectral range of interest for remote sensing and climate applications. Thus, we propose to further develop and refine our existing far-wing formalism to provide an improved treatment applicable from the near-infrared through the microwave. Based on the results of this investigation, we will provide to the remote sensing/climate modeling community a practical and accurate tabulation of the continuum absorption covering the near-infrared through the microwave region of the spectrum for the range of temperatures and pressures of interest for atmospheric applications.

Ma, Qiancheng↗

The Effect of Boundary Support and Reflector Dimensions on Inflatable Parabolic Antenna Performance

For parabolic antennas with sufficient surface accuracy, more power can be radiated with a larger aperture size. This paper explores the performance of antennas of various size and reflector depth. The particular focus is on a large inflatable elastic antenna reflector that is supported about its perimeter by a set of elastic tendons and is subjected to a constant hydrostatic pressure. The surface accuracy of the antenna is measured by an RMS calculation, while the reflector phase error component of the efficiency is determined by computing the power density at boresight. In the analysis, the calculation of antenna efficiency is not based on the Ruze Equation. Hence, no assumption regarding the distribution of the reflector surface distortions is presumed. The reflector surface is modeled as an isotropic elastic membrane using a linear stress-strain constitutive relation. Three types of antenna reflector construction are considered: one molded to an ideal parabolic form and two different flat panel design patterns. The flat panel surfaces are constructed by seaming together panels in a manner that the desired parabolic shape is approximately attained after pressurization. Numerical solutions of the model problem are calculated under a variety of conditions in order to estimate the accuracy and efficiency of these antenna systems. In the case of the flat panel constructions, several different cutting patterns are analyzed in order to determine an optimal cutting strategy.

Coleman, Michael J.↗

Evaluation of High Mountain Asia-Land Data Assimilation System (version 1) from 2003 to 2016: 2. The impact of assimilating satellite-based snow cover and freeze/thaw observations into a land surface model

This second paper of the two-part series focuses on demonstrating the impact of assimilating satellite-based snow cover and freeze/thaw observations into the hyper-resolution, offline terrestrial modeling system used for the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region from 2003 to 2016. To this end, this study systematically evaluates a total of six sets of 0.01° (∼1 km) model simulations forced by different precipitation forcings, with and without the dual assimilation scheme enabled, at point-scale, basin-scale, and domain-scale. The key variables of interest include surface net shortwave radiation, surface net longwave radiation, skin temperature, near-surface soil temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and total runoff. First, the point-scale assessment is mainly conducted via evaluating against ground-based measurements. In general, the assimilation enabled estimates are better than no-assimilation counterparts. Second, the basin-scale runoff assessment demonstrates that across three snow-dominated basins, the assimilation enabled experiment yields systematic improvements in all goodness-of-fit statistics through mitigating the negative effects brought by the fixed long-term precipitation correction factors. For example, when forced by the bias-corrected precipitation, the assimilation-enabled experiment improves the bias by 69%, the root-mean-squared error by 30%, and the unbiased root-mean-squared error by 18% (relative to the no-assimilation counterpart). Finally, the domain-scale assessment is conducted via evaluating against satellite-based SWE and skin temperature products. Both sets of domain-scale analysis further corroborate the findings in the point-scale evaluations. Overall, this study suggests the benefits of the proposed multi-variate assimilation system in improving the cryospheric-hydrological process within a land surface model for use in HMA.

Yuan Xue↗

Assessing equation of state-independent relations for neutron stars with nonparametric models

Relations between neutron star properties that do not depend on the nuclear equation of state offer insights on neutron star physics and have practical applications in data analysis. Such relations are obtained by fitting to a range of phenomenological or nuclear physics equation of state models, each of which may have varying degrees of accuracy. In this study we revisit commonly used relations and reassess them with a very flexible set of phenomenological nonparametric equation of state models that are based on Gaussian processes. Our models correspond to two sets: equations of state which mimic hadronic models, and equations of state with rapidly changing behavior that resemble phase transitions. Here we quantify the accuracy of relations under both sets and discuss their applicability with respect to expected upcoming statistical uncertainties of astrophysical observations. We further propose a goodness-of-fit metric which provides an estimate for the systematic error introduced by using the relation to model a certain equation-of-state set. Overall, the nonparametric distribution is more poorly fit with existing relations, with the I–Love–Q relations retaining the highest degree of universality. Fits degrade for relations involving the tidal deformability, such as the binary-Love and compactness-Love relations, and when introducing phase transition phenomenology. For most relations, systematic errors are comparable to current statistical uncertainties under the nonparametric equation of state distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Results of Propellant Mixing Variable Study Using Precise Pressure-Based Burn Rate Calculations

A designed experiment was conducted in which three mix processing variables (pre-curative addition mix temperature, pre-curative addition mixing time, and mixer speed) were varied to estimate their effects on within-mix propellant burn rate variability. The chosen discriminator for the experiment was the 2-inch diameter by 4-inch long (2x4) Center-Perforated (CP) ballistic evaluation motor. Motor nozzle throat diameters were sized to produce a common targeted chamber pressure. Initial data analysis did not show a statistically significant effect. Because propellant burn rate must be directly related to chamber pressure, a method was developed that showed statistically significant effects on chamber pressure (either maximum or average) by adjustments to the process settings. Burn rates were calculated from chamber pressures and these were then normalized to a common pressure for comparative purposes. The pressure-based method of burn rate determination showed significant reduction in error when compared to results obtained from the Brooks' modification of the propellant web-bisector burn rate determination method. Analysis of effects using burn rates calculated by the pressure-based method showed a significant correlation of within-mix burn rate dispersion to mixing duration and the quadratic of mixing duration. The findings were confirmed in a series of mixes that examined the effects of mixing time on burn rate variation, which yielded the same results.

Stefanski, Philip L.↗

Error and Correction Analysis for the FFA@CEBAF Energy Upgrade

An energy upgrade design for the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) is under development, using fixed field alternating gradient (FFA) return arcs to recirculate electron beam up to an additional five times through the accelerating structures at CEBAF. A necessary component of any large accelerator is a beam steering and optical correction system. Small environmental changes and system errors can lower beam quality or even shut down the machine; and in pursuit of the scientific mission of JLab, high quality electron beams must be delivered to the experimental halls on a predictable schedule. Correction in the novel FFA arcs of the current upgrade design is complicated by several factors. These complexities inform the choice of correction algorithm structure and parameter values. A baseline algorithm in addition to diagnostic and correction hardware configuration is presented. The effect of this correction protocol is shown with respect to estimated errors, and several possible extensions of the algorithm are discussed. This work presents an important proof of concept for the FFA@CEBAF design effort, and provides a functional correction strategy which may be simply adjusted and optimized for future design changes.

Coxe, Alex [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, VA (Unite↗