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NASA NTRS2024

Future CH4 Budgets as Modelled By A Fully Coupled Earth System Model Using Prescribed GHG Concentrations vs. Interactive CH4 Sources and Sinks

We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios. GISS-E2.1 is one of the few ESMs that can be driven by anthropogenic CH4 emissions, as well as interactive natural sources such as wetlands, and can simulate the tropospheric CH4 chemistry. In frame of the recent short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) assessment by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), we used the GISS-E2.1 model with prescribed long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. In the present study, we have supplemented these simulations using the interactive CH4 sources and sinks in order to quantify the model performance and the sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the Eclipse V6b emission database to simulate the future chemical composition and climate impacts from 2015 to 2050. We have also simulated 1995-2014 in order to evaluate the model performance following the AMAP-SLCF protocol. The prescribed GHG version underestimates the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) surface CH4 observations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1% [-8.4%-2.0%], with a correlation (r) of 0.71 [-0.41 0.99]. The largest underestimations are over the continental emission regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia, while biases are smallest over oceans. On the other hand, the simulation with interactive sources and sinks underestimates the GAW observations more than the prescribed simulation, by 18.5% [-25% -10.4%], with a lower r of 0.36 [-0.82 0.93]. Opposite to the prescribed simulation, the biases are largest over oceans and smaller over the continents, however they are still larger over land than the prescribed simulation. The interactive simulation, with large sources virtually over land and strong sink over oceans, has a land/ocean ratio larger than 1 while the prescribed simulation has this ratio equal to 1 as it distributes the global prescribed CH4 concentration equally in longitude over a given latitude. This clearly shows that the interactive sources and sinks should be represented in models in order to realistically simulate the chemical composition and the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. As expected, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In the CLE scenario, increases are largest over the equatorial belt, in particular over India and East China, while the MFR scenario shows increases over the whole Southern Hemisphere, however much smaller compared to CLE. Finally, the interactive simulation shows that the chemical CH4 sink increases in the CLE scenario, while it slightly decreases in the MFR, leading to a larger CH4 lifetime in the MFR scenario compared to in the CLE scenario.

CH4↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toward Statistical Real-Time Power Fault Detection

We propose statistical fault detection methodology based on high-frequency data streams that are becoming available in modern power grids. Our approach can be treated as an online (sequential) change point monitoring methodology. However, due to the mostly unexplored and very nonstandard structure of high-frequency power grid streaming data, substantial new statistical development is required to make this methodology practically applicable. The paper includes development of scalar detectors based on multichannel data streams, determination of data-driven alarm thresholds and investigation of the performance and robustness of the new tools. Due to a reasonably large database of faults, we can calculate frequencies of false and correct fault signals, and recommend implementations that optimize these empirical success rates.

bolted faults↗

NASA NTRS1996

Wideband Interferometric Sensing and Imaging Polarimetry

Wideband Interferometric Sensing and Imaging Polarimetry (WISIP) has become an important, indispensible tool in wide area military surveillance and global environmental monitoring of the terrestrial and planetary covers. It enables dynamic, real time optimal feature extraction of significant characteristics of desirable targets and/or target sections with simultaneous suppression of undesirable background clutter and propagation path speckle at hitherto unknown clarity and never before achieved quality. WISIP may be adopted to the detection, recognition, and identification (DRI) of any stationary, moving or vibrating targets or distributed scatterer segments versus arbitrary stationary, dynamical changing and/or moving geo-physical/ecological environments, provided the instantaneous 2x2 phasor and 4x4 power density matrices for forward propagation/backward scattering, respectively, can be measured with sufficient accuracy. For example, the DRI of stealthy, dynamically moving inhomogeneous volumetric scatter environments such as precipitation scatter, the ocean/sea/lake surface boundary layers, the littoral coastal surf zones, pack ice and snow or vegetative canopies, dry sands and soils, etc. can now be successfully realized. A comprehensive overview is presented on how these modern high resolution/precision, complete polarimetric co-registered signature sensing and imaging techniques, complemented by full integration of novel navigational electronic tools, such as DGPS, will advance electromagnetic vector wave sensing and imaging towards the limits of physical realization. Various examples utilizing the most recent image data take sets of airborne, space shuttle, and satellite imaging systems demonstrate the utility of WISIP.

Verdi, James Salvatore↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Integrated Hydrological and Water Management Study of the Entire Nile River System - Lake Victoria to Nile Delta

The Nile basin River system spans 3 million km(exp 2) distributed over ten nations. The eight upstream riparian nations, Ethiopia, Eretria, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Tanzania and Kenya are the source of approximately 86% of the water inputs to the Nile, while the two downstream riparian countries Sudan and Egypt, presently rely on the river's flow for most of the their needs. Both climate and agriculture contribute to the complicated nature of Nile River management: precipitation in the headwaters regions of Ethiopia and Lake Victoria is variable on a seasonal and inter-annual basis, while demand for irrigation water in the arid downstream region is consistently high. The Nile is, perhaps, one of the most difficult trans-boundary water issue in the world, and this study would be the first initiative to combine NASA satellite observations with the hydrologic models study the overall water balance in a to comprehensive manner. The cornerstone application of NASA's Earth Science Research Results under this project are the NASA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) and the USDA Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model. These two complementary research results are methodologically independent methods for using NASA observations to support water resource analysis in data poor regions. Where an LDAS uses multiple sources of satellite data to inform prognostic simulations of hydrological process, ALEXI diagnoses evapotranspiration and water stress on the basis of thermal infrared satellite imagery. Specifically, this work integrates NASA Land Data Assimilation systems into the water management decision support systems that member countries of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD, located in Nairobi, Kenya) use in water resource analysis, agricultural planning, and acute drought response to support sustainable development of Nile Basin water resources. The project is motivated by the recognition that accurate, frequent, and spatially distributed estimates of the water balance are necessary for effective water management. This creates a challenge for watersheds that are large, include data poor regions, and/or span multiple nations. All of these descriptors apply to the Nile River basin, yet successful management of the Nile is critical for development and political stability in the region. For this reason, improved hydrological data to support cooperative water management in the Nile basin is a priority for USAID, the US State Department, the World Bank and other international organizations. In this project, the U.S. based research team is working with partners at RCMRD, Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), and their member national-level agencies to develop satellite-based land cover maps, satellite-derived evapotranspiration estimates (using the ALEXI algorithm), and NASA's Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) customized to match identified information needs. The cornerstone applied sciences product of the project is the development of a customized "Nile LDAS" that will produce optimal estimates of hydrological states and fluxes, as vetted against the in situ observations of NBI and RCMRD member organizations and independent satellite-derived hydrological estimates. Nile LDAS will be applied to improve the reliability of emerging Decision Support Systems in applications that include drought monitoring, reservoir management, and irrigation planning. The end-users such as RCMRD, NBI, Ethiopian and Kenya Meteorological and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) will be the eventual benefactors of this work. There will be a capacity building process involving the above end-user organizations and transfer the models and the results for these organizations to execute for future use. The team has already initiated this study and the early results of first years' work are shown. The plan is to complete this work by late 2013.

Habib, Shahid↗

DOE OSTI2022

2.2.5.401 - Ocean Observing Prize

The Powering the Blue Economy: Ocean Observing Prize is a $2.4M contest that challenges innovators to develop solutions that integrate marine renewable energy with ocean observation platforms to revolutionize our ability to monitor, manage, and understand the ocean. Competitors are challenged to design, build, and test novel, wave-powered, self-charging autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) systems that could be suitable for a 6-month deployment in the Atlantic Ocean to monitor hurricane formation. Through engagement with the end user ocean observing community, the team identified challenges in a lack of data on storm intensity, endangering coastal communities. This challenge could be addressed by collecting data before, during, and after a hurricane develops and strengthens at sea. Amassing this data, however, requires an ocean observing system that can be deployed at sea for long periods, waiting for approaching storms. To help solve this problem, competitors are working to integrate wave energy capture with AUV systems to collect this data, helping to better protect coastal communities from oncoming storms. Solutions developed through this prize aim to enable long-term collection of data before, during, and after a hurricane that will help better forecast storm intensity. The prize mechanism provides an environment to accelerate technology development for innovators and helps to improve awareness of marine energy and its ability to provide power to blue economy applications.

coastal communities↗

NASA NTRS2020

How emissions uncertainty influences the distribution and radiative impacts of smoke from fires in North America

Fires and the aerosols that they emit impact air quality, health, and climate, but the abundance and properties of carbonaceous aerosol (both black carbon and organic carbon) from biomass burning (BB) remain uncertain and poorly constrained. We aim to explore the uncertainties associated with fire emissions and their air quality and radiative impacts from underlying dry matter consumed and emissions factors. To investigate this, we compare model simulations from a global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, driven by a variety of fire emission inventories with surface and airborne observations of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD). We focus on two fire-detection-based and/or burned-area-based (FD-BA) inventories using burned area and active fire counts, respectively, i.e., the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4s) with small fires and the Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.5 (FINN1.5), and two fire radiative power (FRP)-based approaches, i.e., the Quick Fire Emission Dataset version 2.4 (QFED2.4) and the Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2 (GFAS1.2). We show that, across the inventories, emissions of BB aerosol (BBA) differ by a factor of 4 to 7 over North America and that dry matter differences, not emissions factors, drive this spread. We find that simulations driven by QFED2.4 generally overestimate BC and, to a lesser extent, OA concentrations observations from two fire-influenced aircraft campaigns in North America (ARCTAS and DC3) and from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, while simulations driven by FINN1.5 substantially underestimate concentrations. The GFED4s and GFAS1.2-driven simulations provide the best agreement with OA and BC mass concentrations at the surface (IMPROVE), BC observed aloft (DC3 and ARCTAS), and AOD observed by MODIS over North America. We also show that a sensitivity simulation including an enhanced source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from fires, based on the NOAA Fire Lab 2016 experiments, produces substantial additional OA; however, the spread in the primary emissions estimates implies that this magnitude of SOA can be neither confirmed nor ruled out when comparing the simulations against the observations explored here. Given the substantial uncertainty in fire emissions, as represented by these four emission inventories, we find a sizeable range in 2012 annual BBA PM2.5 population-weighted exposure over Canada and the contiguous US (0.5 to 1.6 µg/cu. m). We also show that the range in the estimated global direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosol from fires (−0.11 to −0.048 W/sq. m) is large and comparable to the direct radiative forcing of OA (−0.09 W/sq. m) estimated in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our analysis suggests that fire emissions uncertainty challenges our ability to accurately characterize the impact of smoke on air quality and climate.

North America↗

DOE OSTI2020

Event Screening Methods for the Eastern Interconnection Situational Awareness and Monitoring System (ESAMS)

The Eastern Interconnection Situational Awareness and Monitoring System (ESAMS) is a tool developed to explore the applications and advantages of sharing phasor measurement unit (PMU) data among operating entities. An initial conclusion from testing was that detected events required further screening before being reported to ensure that events would be of interest to system operators. The methods described in this report were integrated into ESAMS to meet this need. First, an event is screened for whether the change in voltage angle measurements indicates that the detected disturbance is sufficiently large. Next, an event is classified to determine if it was related to a loss of generation. Finally, a neural network is used to determine if the system’s response to the disturbance is normal or abnormal. These methods were tested with one month of field-measured PMU data. Results indicate that the additional information provided by these additional screening tools will improve selection of events for inclusion in the daily event reports automatically generated by ESAMS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-time steerable frequency-stepped Doppler backscattering (DBS) system for local helicon wave electric field measurements on the DIII-D tokamak

A new frequency-stepped Doppler backscattering (DBS) system has been integrated into a real-time steerable electron cyclotron heating launcher system to simultaneously probe local background turbulence (f < 10 MHz) and high-frequency (20–550 MHz) density fluctuations in the DIII-D tokamak. The launcher allows for 2D steering (horizontally and vertically) over wide angular ranges to optimize probe location and wavenumber response. The vertical steering can be optimized during a discharge in real time. The new DBS system employs a programmable frequency synthesizer with adjustable dwell time as a source to launch either O or X-mode polarized millimeter waves. This system can step in real-time over the entire E-band frequency range (60–90 GHz). This combination of capabilities allows for the diagnosis of the complex internal spatial structure of high power (>200 kW) helicon waves (476 MHz) injected from an external antenna during helicon current drive experiments in DIII-D. Broadband density fluctuations around the helicon frequency are observed during real-time scans of measurement location and wavenumber during these experiments. Analysis indicates that these broadband high-frequency fluctuations are a result of backscattering of the DBS millimeter-wave probe beam from plasma turbulence modulated by the helicon wave. It is observed that background turbulence is effectively locally “tagged” with the helicon wave electric field, forming images of the turbulent spectrum in the overall density fluctuation spectrum that appear as high-frequency sidebands of the turbulence. These observations of background turbulence and high-frequency fluctuations open up the possibility of monitoring local helicon wave amplitude by comparing the high-frequency signal amplitude to the simultaneously measured background turbulence. In combination with the real-time measurement location and wavenumber scanning capabilities (offered by real-time frequency-stepping and steering), this allows rapid determination of the spatial distribution of the helicon wave power during steady-state plasma operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-parameter distributed fiber optic sensing using double-Brillouin peak fiber in Brillouin optical time domain analysis

In this paper, we demonstrate a multi-parameter fiber sensing system based on stimulated Brillouin scattering in a double-Brillouin peak specialty fiber with enhanced Brillouin gain response. The amplitude level of the second Brillouin gain peak, which originated from the higher-order acoustic modes, has been improved with an approximately similar amplitude level to the first Brillouin gain peak from the fundamental acoustic mode. Compared to other multi-Brillouin peak fibers presented in the literature, the proposed fiber significantly reduces the measured Brillouin frequency shift error, thus improving strain and temperature accuracies. By utilizing the sensitivity values of the strain and temperature associated with each Brillouin gain spectrum (BGS) peak, a successful discriminative measurement of strain and temperature is performed with an accuracy of ±13 μɛ, and ±0.5 °C, respectively. The proposed double-Brillouin peak fiber appears to be a possible alternative to other multi-BGS peak fibers, for instance, large effective area fiber and dispersion compensating fibers, which are inherently accompanied by large measurement errors due to the weak Brillouin gain values originating from the higher-order acoustic modes. The demonstrated results show different strain and temperature coefficients of 47 kHz/µɛ, 1.15 MHz/°C for peak 1 and 51 kHz/µɛ, 1.37 MHz/°C for peak 2. Moreover, the enhanced BGS peak gains having nearly the same amplitude levels enable the discriminative measurement of strain and temperature. Such fibers in Brillouin interrogation eliminate the need for complex monitoring setups and reduce measurement errors. We recommend that for long-distance natural gas pipeline monitoring, where discriminative strain and temperature measurement is crucial, the proposed double-Brillouin peak fiber can be highly beneficial.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demonstrate FARM supervisory capabilities for a thermal energy storage problem for the DETAIL facility: IES Simulation Ecosystem Control System Development

The goal of the power dispatch problem for an Integrated Energy System (IES) is to adjust the power output and the heat flow of each component to maximize the profitability of the whole unit. Facilities that can integrate real-time digital signals, mock nuclear power, thermal energy storage and industrial heat use via high-temperature electrolysis were constructed at INL to support the research activities. The Dynamic Energy Technology and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) houses the Microreactor Agile Non-nuclear Experimental Test Bed (MAGNET) and the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS). In this report, the hierarchical control system architecture proposed in June 2023 milestone for the flexible operation of DETAIL facility is finalized and demonstrated. A brief description of the components and the corresponding Dymola models from the HYRBID repository is first provided. Then, the current control strategy is presented. In particular, the approach for generating the set-point trajectories to be fed to the PI controllers is analyzed, and its limits were identified. To preserve safe operation over both long-time and real-time horizons, the integration of a Supervisory Control layer embedding a modified version of FARM (Feasible Actuator Range Modifier) module is proposed. FARM is a component of the RAVEN-based FORCE framework designed to support HERON module at optimizing the operation of IES units. The proposed control system for DETAIL foresees FARM to be applied twice, i.e., the original version (“FARM-Validator”) aiding the solution of the power dispatch problem, and a modified version (“FARM-Supervisory”) coordinating the PID controllers. Despite the kernel of the two modules is the same, their tasks are quite different. The former intervenes at the beginning of each hour to prevent constraint violations over long time periods, the latter addresses real-time control tasks and monitors the response of constrained variables at a much finer time resolution. A tentative procedure for training the embedded Digital Twins with the experimental data is also proposed. Finally, the capabilities of the designed architecture and the impact of the added Supervisory Control layer are demonstrated by simulating a representative power dispatch scenario.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting Forced Oscillation Notifications from ESAMS: General Guidance for Reliability Coordinators

The Eastern Interconnection Situational Awareness Monitoring System (ESAMS) project demonstrated the feasibility of aggregating synchrophasor measurements from across an interconnection, analyzing them, and providing real-time wide-area situational awareness to system operators who may have excellent visibility within their footprint but lack an interconnection-wide view. An application within ESAMS that has garnered industry interest involves detecting forced oscillations visible across multiple areas, identifying the region where the oscillation originated from, quantifying the uncertainty in source localization results, and notifying users in real-time if the detected oscillation amplitudes cross a specified threshold. It is expected that system operators will utilize their internal SCADA/EMS/synchrophasor systems in conjunction with information provided by ESAMS to take effective mitigation actions if forced oscillation notifications are received. This report provides some general guidance on how the ESAMS information can be used for source localization and coordination among multiple reliability coordinators; and also identifies potential enhancements to ESAMS notifications for improved interpretability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2007

Eye Safe, Visible Wavelength Lidar Systems: Design and Operational Advances, Results and Potential

In the early nineties the first of the eye safe visible wavelength lidar systems known now as Micro Pulse Lidar (MPL) became operational. The important advance of the design was a system that, unlike most existing lidar, operated at eye safe energy densities and could thus operate unattended for full time monitoring. Since that time there have been many dozens of these systems produced and applied for full time profiling of atmospheric cloud and aerosol structure. There is currently an observational network of MPL sites to support global climate research. In thc course of application of these instruments there have been significant improvements in the, design and performance of the systems. In the last half decade particularly there has been significant application and technical development of MPL systems. In this paper we review progress. The current MPL systems in use are all single wavelength systems designed for cloud and aerosol applications. For the cloud and aerosol applications, both lidar depolarization and multi wavelength measurements have significant applications. These can be accomplished with the MPL, approach. The main current challenge for the lidar network activity are in the area of the reliability, repeatability and efficiency of data processing. The network makes use of internet data downloads and automated processing. The heights of all cloud and aerosol layers are needed. The recent emphasis has been in operationally deriving aerosol extinction cross section. Future emphasis will include adding cirrus optical parameters. For operational effectiveness, improvements to simplify routine data signal calibration are being researched. Overall the MPL systems have proven very effective. A large data base of results from globally distributed sites can be easily accessed through the internet. Applications have included atmospheric model development. Validation of current global satellite observations of aerosol and clouds, including now orbital lidar observations, was a primary goal for NASA. Although sampling issues require careful consideration, results have proven useful.

Spinhirne, James↗

DOE OSTI2025

Best Practices for Grid Communications

As the grid evolves, the communications architecture will need to evolve with it. That architecture affords a structured means by which the evolving complexities of the modern electric grid can be managed. This document provides best practices that can be implemented in the grid of today and evolve towards the grid and grid architecture of the future. The evolving grid and its control communications increasingly rely on commercial communications providers and a variety of technologies, from wireless (e.g., 5G, microwave, Wi-Fi) to wireline (fiber, copper) to radio communications (P25, other repeater-based systems), and all these communications systems rely on electric power. A reliable and resilient grid must account for this complex set of interdependencies in its planning activities, especially those involving restoration and recovery. The participation of all relevant parties in both planning and exercising of plans can prevent unexpected conditions that impede the reliable operation and recovery of the grid. Best practices for grid communications include using a Network Management System to document the operational state, define and monitor baselines, detect changes, and accelerate response to abnormalities. If transitioning from SONET to IP/packet-based systems, translating grid requirements into communications requirements for latency, bandwidth and throughput, IP packet delay variation, packet loss, and availability should inform and drive technology planning and selection as well as that communication system’s Quality of Service (QoS) policies and Service Level Agreements (SLAs). Secure and reliable timing is another key component of a reliable and resilient grid that can operate through adverse events. A trusted internal NTP configuration, an integrated and diverse timing delivery system, optimizing the timing architecture based on the transport technologies of the communications system, and using established standards can deliver the level of timing accuracy required by a range of time-sensitive power system applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project: A Multi-Component Analysis System for Carbon-Cycle Research and Monitoring

The importance of greenhouse gas increases for climate motivates NASA s observing strategy for CO2 from space, including the forthcoming Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) mission. Carbon cycle monitoring, including attribution of atmospheric concentrations to regional emissions and uptake, requires a robust modeling and analysis infrastructure to optimally extract information from the observations. NASA's Carbon-Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project (FPP) is a prototype for such analysis, combining a set of unique tools to facilitate analysis of atmospheric CO2 along with fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere or ocean. NASA's analysis system is unique, in that it combines information and expertise from the land, oceanic, and atmospheric branches of the carbon cycle and includes some estimates of uncertainty. Numerous existing space-based missions provide information of relevance to the carbon cycle. This study describes the components of the FPP framework, assessing the realism of computed fluxes, thus providing the basis for research and monitoring applications. Fluxes are computed using data-constrained terrestrial biosphere models and physical ocean models, driven by atmospheric observations and assimilating ocean-color information. Use of two estimates provides a measure of uncertainty in the fluxes. Along with inventories of other emissions, these data-derived fluxes are used in transport models to assess their consistency with atmospheric CO2 observations. Closure is achieved by using a four-dimensional data assimilation (inverse) approach that adjusts the terrestrial biosphere fluxes to make them consistent with the atmospheric CO2 observations. Results will be shown, illustrating the year-to-year variations in land biospheric and oceanic fluxes computed in the FPP. The signals of these surface-flux variations on atmospheric CO2 will be isolated using forward modeling tools, which also incorporate estimates of transport error. The results will be discussed in the context of interannual variability of observed atmospheric CO2 distributions.

Pawson, S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stochastic Verification by Analysis for Autonomous Systems Management Architecture (ASMA)

The Gateway Vehicle Systems Manager (VSM) is the top-level of a distributed, hierarchical software control system. VSM is data-driven and will make decisions related to mission, fault, resource management and vehicle control. These attributes combined with a high degree of autonomy make it susceptible to emergent behavior. In order to achieve the high level of confidence needed in this critical system, the VSM team has developed a multifaceted verification strategy employing traditional verification techniques, simulation, model checking, and runtime verification. Individual algorithms are verified using conventional testing and model checking using assume-guarantee contracts. A discrete event-based simulation approach is being developed to verify timelines. This presentation describes an enhancement to the verification approach using analysis to enhance system robustness by detecting and resolving the potential for emergent behavior. The verification by analysis employs a Software in the Loop (SITL) environment with real flight software executing on emulated processors, simulations of vehicle subsystems, flight dynamics, and human inputs. Since the possible input space and configuration data set are too large for exhaustive testing, a Monte Carlo approach is used to cover feasible scenarios, augmented with corner cases and known higher-risk scenarios. A key problem in using Monte Carlo-based system verification is evaluating test results to ensure that system behavior is correct. The presentation describes the approach the VSM team uses to monitor behavior for compliance with predetermined boundaries and to identify anomalous behavior for further analysis. This presentation describes the multi-level systems approach to verification, and the simulation-based layer that covers the feasible state space: 1. Overview of the Gateway VSM 2. Special challenges due to heterogeneous, hierarchical architecture 3. Modeling and simulation environment using flight software and system simulations 4. Developing input sets to ensure state-space coverage 5. Developing model and data configuration sets to ensure model coverage 6. Interpreting results without predetermined outcomes 7. Lessons learned and future work

Verification and Validation↗

NASA NTRS2002

Transit Detection with a Distributed Network of Telescopes

The discovery since 1995 of more than 80 planets around nearby solar-like stars and the photometric detection of a transit of the planet orbiting HD 209458 (producing a more than 1% drop in brightness that lasts 3 hours) has heralded a new era in astronomy. It has now been demonstrated that small telescopes equipped with sensitive and stable electronic detectors can produce fundamental scientific discoveries regarding the frequency and nature of planets outside the solar system. The modest equipment requirements for the measurement of extrasolar planetary transits are achieved by commercial small aperture telescopes and CCD imagers common among amateur astronomers. With equipment already in hand and armed with target lists, observing techniques and software procedures developed b NASA's Ames Research Center and the University of California at Santa Cruz, non-professional astronomers can contribute significantly to the study of planets around others stars. Statistical analyses of the population of parent stars of the known extrasolar planets indicate that approximately one in ten metal-rich stars should harbor a short-period planet. Given the ten percent chance that a given short-period planet displays transits, we therefore expect that approximately 1% of the most metal rich stars will have a planetary companion detectable by this project. A catalog of 206 highly metal rich nearby F, G and K stars has been compiled, and this catalog will provide a rich source of targets. In addition, main sequence F, G, K and M stars identified to have "transit-like" features in the Hipparcos satellite photometry archive will also be monitored. A commercially available "amateur grade" telescope/CCD/software system acquired late during the 2001 "transit season" for HID 209458 has achieved 0.47% RMS precision for 13 minute time sampling from a suburban backyard under less than ideal observing conditions and a realistic range of airmass values.

Castellano, T.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Fine particulate concentrations over East Asia derived from aerosols measured by the Advanced Himawari Imager using machine learning

Fine particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) is deleterious to the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. It is often difficult to assess the effects of PM 2.5 on human health over regions with limited ground monitoring sites, especially in East Asia. As an alternative, we estimated near-surface PM 2.5 concentrations by analyzing Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) Yonsei Aerosol Retrieval (YAER) products. This study incorporates daytime data for East Asia covering the Korean Peninsula, China, Japan, Southeast Asia, and southern Mongolia. We collocated AHI YAER product pixels with meteorological, land-cover, and other ancillary data for the period from March 2018 to February 2019. To estimate PM 2.5 concentrations over wide areas spanning many countries displaying various relationships between aerosol optical depth and PM 2.5 , monthly models were developed by considering both the spatial and temporal characteristics of ground-based PM 2.5 measurements. Random forest machine learning model estimated ground-level mass concentrations of PM 2.5 ; subsequent 10-fold cross validation (CV) yielded a CV R 2 value of 0.81 and a CV root mean squared error (RMSE) of 12.3 μg m -3 . We investigated the spatial pattern of PM 2.5 concentrations over multiple countries and seasonal variation in PM 2.5 concentrations. Diurnal variation of a severe PM 2.5 event in the Korean Peninsula was investigated as a case study. The model captured the extremely heterogeneous spatial distribution of PM 2.5 concentrations peaked around local noon. To measure the capability of the developed model to estimate PM 2.5 concentrations in areas with few in-situ data, its predictive performance was evaluated using a dataset independent of the training process with an R 2 of 0.60 and RMSE of 8.18 μg m −3 . This study demonstrates the potential for satellite-based PM 2.5 estimation for areas with insufficient measuring stations.

Pm2.5↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Inter-Calibrating the CERES SW Instrument Fluxes Using Deep Convective Clouds(DCC) Within the Same Sun-Synchronous Orbit

The NASA CERES EBAF product provides the scientific community observed TOA fluxes to monitor the Earth’s energy imbalance and to validate climate models. To provide a seamless EBAF 24-year record, the CERES instrument calibration must be stable and consistent across satellite records. Once the Terra and Aqua spacecraft are decommissioned at the end of 2025, the CERES project will rely on CERES instrument observations on the SNPP and NOAA-20 1:30 PM sun-synchronous orbits. The SNPP and NOAA-20 satellite orbit placement will prevent any time matched observations for inter-calibration efforts. The future Libera instrument, which will continue the CERES record and scheduled for launch in 2028 onboard the NOAA-22 satellite, will also need to be inter-calibrated without the aid of time-matched observations. Deep convective clouds (DCC) are the most Lambertian, brightest, tropical Earth invariant targets located at the tropopause making them ideal to radiometrically scale the CERES SW observed radiance to a common reference. The SNPP, NOAA-20 and future NOAA-22 satellites are in the same 16-day repeatable orbits, allowing the DCC targets to be observed with the same angular configuration. The empirically derived SNPP CERES SW channel Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) can be easily be applied to the NOAA-20 CERES SW channel radiances since they observe the nearly the same DCC systems. The DCC BRDF corrected radiances are analyzed collectively into radiance probability distribution functions (PDF). By comparing the PDF statistics, the SNPP and NOAA-20 CERES SW channel can be inter-calibrated. The inter-calibration coefficients are validated with the CERES instrument calibration team coefficients to optimize the methodology.

David Doelling↗