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At least 1,621 records · Page 90

An interface-controlled Mott memristor in α -RuCl 3

Memristor devices have history-dependent charge transport properties that are ideal for neuromorphic computing applications. We reveal a memristor material and mechanism in the layered Mott insulator α-RuCl 3 . The pinched hysteresis loops and S-shaped negative differential resistance in bulk crystals verify memristor behavior and are attributed to a nonlinear coupling between charge injection over a Schottky barrier at the electrical contacts and concurrent Joule heating. Direct simulations of this coupling can reproduce the device characteristics.

Physics↗

Reduced scaling formulation of CASPT2 analytical gradients using the supporting subspace method

We present a reduced scaling and exact reformulation of state specific complete active space second-order perturbation (CASPT2) analytical gradients in terms of the MP2 and Fock derivatives using the supporting subspace method. This work follows naturally from the supporting subspace formulation of the CASPT2 energy in terms of the MP2 energy using dressed orbitals and Fock builds. For a given active space configuration, the terms corresponding to the MP2-gradient can be evaluated with O(N5) operations, while the rest of the calculations can be computed with O(N3) operations using Fock builds, Fock gradients, and linear algebra. When tensor-hyper-contraction is applied simultaneously, the computational cost can be further reduced to O(N4) for a fixed active space size. The new formulation enables efficient implementation of CASPT2 analytical gradients by leveraging the existing graphical processing unit (GPU)-based MP2 and Fock routines. We present benchmark results that demonstrate the accuracy and performance of the new method. Example applications of the new method in ab initio molecular dynamics simulation and constrained geometry optimization are given.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multigluon Correlations and Evidence of Saturation from Dijet Measurements at an Electron-Ion Collider

In this work, we study inclusive and diffractive dijet production in electron-proton and electron-nucleus collisions within the color glass condensate effective field theory. We compute dijet cross sections differentially in both mean dijet transverse momentum P and recoil momentum Δ , as well as the anisotropy in the relative angle between P and Δ . Our results cover a much larger kinematic range than accessible in previous computations performed in the correlation limit approximation, where it is assumed that | P | &raquo | Δ | . We validate this approximation in its range of applicability and quantify its failure for | P | ≲ | Δ | . We also predict significant target-dependent deviations from the correlation limit approximation for | P | > | Δ | and | P | ≲ Q s , which offers a straightforward test of gluon saturation and access to multigluon distributions at a future Electron-Ion Collider.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Electromagnetic Field Simulation Utilizing VERTEX

The understanding of electromagnetic fields is essential for many core applications at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Electromagnetic fields play an important role in particle accelerators, antennas, electric motors, power grids, and are principal part of nuclear fusion. We develop a numerical solver called able to treat the Maxwell system utilizing ORNL's VERTEX framework.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Improved Methods for Modeling Functional Transition Metal Compounds in Complex Environments: Ground States, Excited States, and Spectroscopies

Rapid advances in energy applications require new theory and computational models to provide guidance for interpretation of experimental results and mechanistic understanding. New theory development is necessary to treat systems of increasing complexity, size, and relevance to real applications. Functional transition metal compounds, including molecules, clusters, nanoparticles, surfaces, and solids, provide particular promise for magnetic, optical, and catalytic applications. However, such systems can be exceptionally challenging to model. To make progress in understanding and designing transition metal compounds for energy applications, theory must be able to simulate such systems in complex environments, as well as simulate the spectra of such complex systems to provide direct connections with experiment. Leveraging the independent expertise of the team’s members, this project aimed to make inroads to the theoretical and computational challenges associated with studying transition metal compounds, their reaction chemistry, photophysics and photochemistry, and response to spectroscopic interrogation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Expansion of Machine-Learning Method for Classifying Neutron Resonances

The understanding of astrophysics processes and the performance of nuclear reactors and other nuclear systems depend on a precise description of the neutron interaction cross sections for materials and nuclei present in these environments. At low neutron energies, these cross sections exhibit resonance structure represented by sharp enhancements when the neutron energy is sufficiently close to excited levels in a compound nucleus. Such resonances can be characterized by their quantum numbers relative to angular momenta, which are often deduced in an ad hoc and irreproducible manner from the shape of the cross sections. The correct assignment of the quantum numbers of neutron resonances is therefore of paramount importance. To address this we have developed a machine-learning method to automate the identification and correction of these spin assignments. The algorithm is trained from simulated data, generated from statistical properties of resonance data for a given nucleus, to mimic the errors found in real data. In this project we describe five independent approaches to further develop and expand the applicability of the machine-learning spin classifier: i) Feature impact; ii) Integration with the Atlas; iii) Training optimization; iv) Spacings systematics; and v) Validation with polarized data. The premises, methods, results, and future perspectives are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Coupled Monte Carlo Transport and Conjugate Heat Transfer for Wire-Wrapped Bundles Within the MOOSE Framework

Cardinal is an open-source application that couples OpenMC Monte Carlo transport and NekRS computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), closing neutronics and thermal-fluid gaps in conducting high-resolution multiscale and multiphysics analyses of nuclear systems. We first provide a brief introduction to Cardinal's software design, data mapping, and coupling strategy to highlight our approach to overcoming common challenges in high-fidelity multiphysics simulations. Here we then present two Cardinal simulations for hexagonal pin bundles. The first is a validation of Cardinal's conjugate heat transfer coupling of NekRS's Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes model with MOOSE's heat conduction physics for a bare seven-pin Freon-12 bundle flow experiment. Predictions for pin surface temperatures under three different heating modes agree reasonably well with experimental data and similar CFD modeling from the literature. The second simulation is a multiphysics coupling of OpenMC, NekRS, and BISON for a reduced-scale, seven-pin wire-wrapped version of an Advanced Burner Reactor bundle. Wire wraps are approximated using a momentum source model, and coupled predictions are provided for velocity, temperature, and power distribution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Arms Control Opportunities for Inherently Safe and Secure Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications

The Department of Defense Science Board has stated that the United States is "not prepared to defend againsr cyber-attacks and that the military could lose "trust in the information and ability to control U.S. systems and forces [including nuclear forces]." One potential weak spot in cyber-security is storing encryption keys in computer memory. This paper explores the use of hardware devices (so-called Physical Unclonable Functions, or PUFs) to generate, in the nuclear weapon itself, unique encryption keys each time they are needed. Not only do we find that this has the potential to mitigate a number of cyberthreats, but such hardware has the potential to greatly diminish the total uncertainty associated with radiation-based warhead authentication procedures; a procedure many analysts feel will be key to future arms control regimes. After outline the use of PUFs in nuclear command, control, and communications--and indicating some of the areas that still require further research--we discuss their application to arms control and warhead authentication

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Artificial Intelligence for Multiphysics Nuclear Design Optimization with Additive Manufacturing

The geometric flexibility of additively manufactured metals and ceramics generates a very large and open design space that requires advanced modeling and simulation tools for physics simulations and the rigorous definition of design problems. This effort deploys artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms to understand the design space, evaluate potential designs, and more efficiently generate optimized results. The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program is leveraging advances in several scientific areas—including materials, manufacturing, sensors and control systems, data analytics, and high-fidelity modeling and simulation—to accelerate the design, manufacturing, qualification, and deployment of advanced nuclear energy systems. Through a manufacturing-informed design approach, the TCR program seeks to integrate digital data for rapid nuclear innovation; accelerate the adoption of advances in manufacturing, materials, and computational sciences for nuclear applications; and dramatically reduce deployment costs and timelines for new nuclear reactor technologies. This report documents efforts under the TCR program to leverage advanced modeling and simulation techniques driven by AI/ML algorithms on high-performance computing (HPC) systems to yield more optimized TCR core designs. A multiphysics ML surrogate model was developed to run on the HPC architectures. The surrogate model is trained on high-fidelity simulation data of coupled neutronics and thermofluidics and is used to quickly evaluate thousands of candidate core designs in parallel, which drives the evolution of the cooling channel shapes to minimize temperature peaking and material stress. Outcomes from these activities provide design information and feedback into the core design efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

CFD simulations of electric motor end ring cooling for improved thermal management

Proper thermal management of an electric motor for vehicle applications extends its operating range. One cooling approach is to impinge Automatic Transmission Fluid (ATF) onto the rotor end ring. Increased ATF coverage correlates to enhanced heat transfer. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analytical tools provide a mechanism to assess motor thermal management prior to hardware fabrication. The complexity of the fluid flow (e.g., jet atomization, interface tracking, wall impingement) and heat transfer makes these simulations challenging. Computational costs are high when solving these flows on high-speed rotating meshes. Typically, a Volume-of Fluid (VOF) technique (i.e., two-fluid system) is used to resolve ATF dynamics within this rotating framework. Suitable numerical resolution of the relevant physics for thin films under strong inertial forces at high rotor speeds is computationally expensive, further increasing the run times. In this work, a numerical study of rotor-ring cooling by ATF is presented using a patent automated Cartesian cut-cell based method coupled with Automatic Mesh Refinement (AMR). This approach automatically creates the Cartesian mesh on-the-fly and can effectively handle complex rotating geometries by adaptively refining the mesh based on local gradients in the flow field which results in better resolution of the air-ATF interface. A Single non-inertial Reference Frame (SRF) approach is used to account for the rotating geometry and to further improve the overall computational efficiency. Quasi-steady state conditions are targeted in the analysis of the results. Important physics such as ATF jet structure, velocity detail near the air-jet interface, ATF coverage/accumulation on the ring surface, and cooling capacity are presented for a low-resolution Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS), high-resolution RANS, and high-resolution Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) models. Computations are scaled over hundreds of cores on a supercomputer to maximize turnaround time. Each numerical approach is shown to capture the general trajectory of the oil jet prior to surface impingement. The high-resolution LES simulation, however, is superior in capturing small scale details and heat transfer between the free jet and surrounding air.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Nuclear two point correlation functions on a quantum computer

The calculation of dynamic response functions is expected to be an early application benefiting from rapidly developing quantum hardware resources. The ability to calculate real-time quantities of strongly correlated quantum systems is one of the most exciting applications that can easily reach beyond the capabilities of traditional classical hardware. Response functions of fermionic systems at moderate momenta and energies corresponding roughly to the Fermi energy of the system are a potential early application because the relevant operators are nearly local, and the energies can be resolved in moderately short real time, reducing the spatial resolution and gate depth required. This is particularly the case in quasielastic electron and neutrino scattering from nuclei, a topic of great interest in the nuclear and particle physics communities and directly related to experiments designed to probe neutrino properties. In this paper we use current quantum hardware and error mitigation protocols to calculate response functions for a highly simplified nuclear model through calculations of a 2-point real time correlation function for a modified Fermi-Hubbard model in two dimensions with three distinguishable nucleons on four lattice sites.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fluid-Kinetic Coupling: Advanced Discretizations for Simulations on Emerging Heterogeneous Architectures (LDRD FY20-0643)

Plasma physics simulations are vital for a host of Sandia mission concerns, for fundamental science, and for clean energy in the form of fusion power. Sandia's most mature plasma physics simulation capabilities come in the form of particle-in-cell (PIC) models and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models. MHD models for a plasma work well in denser plasma regimes when there is enough material that the plasma approximates a fluid. PIC models, on the other hand, work well in lower-density regimes, in which there is not too much to simulate; error in PIC scales as the square root of the number of particles, making high-accuracy simulations expensive. Real-world applications, however, almost always involve a transition region between the high-density regimes where MHD is appropriate, and the low-density regimes for PIC. In such a transition region, a direct discretization of Vlasov is appropriate. Such discretizations come with their own computational costs, however; the phase-space mesh for Vlasov can involve up to six dimensions (seven if time is included), and to apply appropriate homogeneous boundary conditions in velocity space requires meshing a substantial padding region to ensure that the distribution remains sufficiently close to zero at the velocity boundaries. Moreover, for collisional plasmas, the right-hand side of the Vlasov equation is a collision operator, which is non-local in velocity space, and which may dominate the cost of the Vlasov solver. The present LDRD project endeavors to develop modern, foundational tools for the development of continuum-kinetic Vlasov solvers, using the discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin (DPG) methodology, for discretization of Vlasov, and machine-learning (ML) models to enable efficient evaluation of collision operators. DPG affords several key advantages. First, it has a built-in, robust error indicator, allowing us to adapt the mesh in a very natural way, enabling a coarse velocity-space mesh near the homogeneous boundaries, and a fine mesh where the solution has fine features. Second, it is an inherently high-order, high-intensity method, requiring extra local computations to determine so-called optimal test functions, which makes it particularly suited to modern hardware in which floating-point throughput is increasing at a faster rate than memory bandwidth. Finally, DPG is a residual-minimizing method, which enables high-accuracy computation: in typical cases, the method delivers something very close to the $L^2$ projection of the exact solution. Meanwhile, the ML-based collision model we adopt affords a cost structure that scales as the square root of a standard direct evaluation. Moreover, we design our model to conserve mass, momentum, and energy by construction, and our approach to training is highly flexible, in that it can incorporate not only synthetic data from direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) codes, but also experimental data. We have developed two DPG formulations for Vlasov-Poisson: a time-marching, backward-Euler discretization and a space-time discretization. We have conducted a number of numerical experiments to verify the approach in a 1D1V setting. In this report, we detail these formulations and experiments. We also summarize some new theoretical results developed as part of this project (published as papers previously): some new analysis of DPG for the convection-reaction problem (of which the Vlasov equation is an instance), a new exponential integrator for DPG, and some numerical exploration of various DPG-based time-marching approaches to the heat equation. As part of this work, we have contributed extensively to the Camellia open-source library; we also describe the new capabilities and their usage. We have also developed a well-documented methodology for single-species collision operators, which we applied to argon and demonstrated with numerical experiments. We summarize those results here, as well as describing at a high level a design extending the methodology to multi-species operators. We have released a new open-source library, MLC, under a BSD license; we include a summary of its capabilities as well.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Two-phase accurate multiplexed structured image capture (2pAc-MUSIC)

Multiplexed Structural Image Capture (MUSIC) technique uses modulation of light from a scene prior to imaging to encode the temporal evolution of target into spatial frequency shifts, with each shift corresponding to a unique time and resulting in individual distinct snapshots. Computational-processing of the multiplexed single-shot image can recover the nanosecond-resolution scene evolution. One of the limitations is the loss of spatial resolution of the recovered image due to limitations of the low-pass spatial frequency filtering depth. Here we demonstrated that two images with complementary spatial phases can be used to enhance the spatial resolutions. For this application, 2 Phase Accurate (2pAc)-MUSIC is implemented that a scene is encoded with two complementary phases. The increased spatial information captured reduces the lower frequency noise in the Fourier domain found in single-phase MUSIC. A recovery algorithm combines the 180-degree spatial frequency shifted images into a single scene and applies a spatial filter in the Fourier domain that has a larger depth than previously possible to achieve a scene with increased spatial resolution. The 2pAc-MUSIC can effectively enhance the spatial resolution by removing the overlapping zero-order spatial frequencies.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Image-based modeling of coupled electro-chemo-mechanical behavior of Li-ion battery cathode using an interface-modified reproducing kernel particle method

Abstract An interface-modified reproducing kernel particle method (IM-RKPM) is introduced in this work to allow for a direct model construction from image pixels of heterogeneous polycrystalline Li-ion battery microstructures. The interface-modified reproducing kernel (IM-RK) approximation is constructed through scaling of a kernel function by a regularized distance function in conjunction with strategic placement of interface node locations. This leads to RK shape functions with either weak or strong discontinuities across material interfaces, suitable for modeling various interface mechanics. With the placement of a triple junction node and distance-based scaling of kernel functions, the resulting IM-RK shape function also possesses proper discontinuities at the triple junctions. This IM-RK approximation effectively remedies the well-known Gibb’s oscillation in the smooth approximation of discontinuities. Different from the conventional meshfree approaches for interface discontinuities, this IM-RK approach is done without additional degrees of freedom associated with the enrichment functions, and it is formulated with the standard procedures in the RK shape function construction. This work focuses on identifying the accuracy and convergence properties of IM-RKPM for modeling the coupled electro-chemo-mechanical system. A linear patch test is formulated and numerically tested for the electro-chemo-mechanical coupled problem with a Butler–Volmer boundary condition representing the physical conditions in Li-ion battery microstructures. This is followed by verification of the optimal rates of convergence of IM-RKPM for solving the coupled problem with higher order solutions. The image-based modeling of Li-ion battery microstructures in the numerical examples demonstrates the applicability of the proposed method to realistic Li-ion battery materials modeling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Simulation and Emulation of X-Ray Diffraction from Dynamic Compression Experiments

Many important aspects of the dynamic thermo-mechanical response of materials occur at the mesoscale, i.e. a physical scale of interactions smaller than what can be adequately described by homogenous behaviors, yet larger than the scale of the atomic lattice. Concurrent advancements in computational power, continuum theory, and experimental diagnostics are enabling unprecedented understanding of such interactions. However, we cannot develop a sufficient level of confidence in such mesoscale capability until the constitutive description of the underlying constituents is reliably representative of their actual physical behavior. Therefore, there is a strong need to combine experimental, modeling, and data-science techniques to validate models of the thermomechanical response of individual single crystals. One experimental diagnostic with high potential impact to shock physics and materials science is in-situ x-ray diffraction. This paper is primarily focused on simulation of x-ray diffraction in shock physics, but with an aim toward quantifying parametric uncertainty of simulation models. Here, we develop and demonstrate a data-science and model-driven approach to constrain the parameterization of continuum models of crystal lattice deformation associated with the shock response of crystalline materials. The framework is built around the connection between continuum hydrodynamic simulations of lattice deformation and a new Bragg diffraction simulation code, BarberShop. The dynamic deformation of a crystal lattice is modeled using the DiscoFlux model within an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian hydrodynamic code, FLAG. These detailed continuum simulations of lattice deformation can be computationally slow, thus a statistical model is used to emulate the evolution of lattice deformation fields in time and across the considered model parameter space. Emulated lattice deformation fields can then be generated rapidly for any combination of physics model parameters. In turn, these fields can be fed into BarberShop to realize a rapid prediction of Bragg diffraction patterns associated with particular values of physics model parameters. The framework enables parameterization of the single crystal model to obtain Bragg diffraction patterns that most closely resemble a corresponding measurement. Furthermore, the framework naturally provides sensitivities of the lattice deformation to the physics parameters. We highlight the utility of this framework through the application to a synthetic closed-loop inverse problem leading to the parameterization of a single crystal material model. As a model problem, we consider the dynamic response of the energetic molecular crystal, cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine (or RDX), under dynamic compression induced by simulated flyer plate impact experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

FY23 Status Report on MOOSE-Based Approaches to Modeling Core Bowing in Fast Reactors

Under the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program, an integrated multiphysics approach is being developed to model the core bowing phenomena important to liquid metal-cooled fast reactors. Core bowing is an important passive safety mechanism whereby increased power (which leads to temperature and flux gradients) influences the core to bow into less reactive configurations when the restraint system is properly designed. The phenomenon includes a complex interplay of radiation transport, duct temperature calculations involving fluid flow and heat transfer, and thermo-mechanical responses to the induced temperature and flux gradients. Structural material properties are also important to determining inelastic response to longer term flux gradients which cause irradiation creep and swelling. While core bowing provides a strong negative reactivity feedback when the restraint system is designed properly, it also results in additional forces between assemblies which increase the loads required to extricate them during refueling or control rod movement. Therefore, the restraint system must be designed with these tradeoffs in mind. The first stage of the work, which commenced in FY21 and continues through FY23, assesses thermo-mechanical modeling tools for producing core bowing predictions consistent with conventional tools. The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Tensor Mechanics and Contact Modules are employed. This status report describes work on additional thermo-mechanical benchmark verification problems with increased complexity from the examples demonstrated in FY21 and FY22. Several benchmark verification examples were selected from the IAEA verification and validation report with increased number of ducts and more complex contact interaction behavior. These examples involve a full symmetric sector with restraint rings at multiple load pad locations to simulate a limited free-bow restraint system concept, as well as irradiation induced swelling and creep effects in a sector. In addition, improvements to the contact module sideset assignment were assessed and compared with previous MOOSE results to verify the contact behavior. The MOOSE-based results were compared to IAEA benchmark participants’ results. In every case, the MOOSE results agreed with other simulations results for estimating bowing behavior, providing additional verification basis of the tools for this particular physics application. Estimation of contact forces were mostly in agreement, with a few outlier results. A plan was suggested for dealing with the discrepancies with estimating contact force values. In addition, a 1-way coupling demonstration was performed using subchannel analysis code Pronghorn-SC and MOOSE on an ABR-1000-design sodium-cooled fast reactor assembly to evaluate coolant and duct wall temperatures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Software Quality Assurance, Software Requirements and Gap Analysis for the MOOSE-Based Open-Source Multiphysics Code Cardinal

Cardinal continuous development and improvement efforts have led to the software being considered as a high-fidelity design and licensing tool for key areas of nuclear reactor relevant physics, including neutron transport, fluid flow, heat transfer, and mechanical processes. The fast development and expansion of the software from a pure R&D framework towards its application in the nuclear industry and regulation require a focus on maintaining and enhancing Cardinal’s software quality through strict adherence to a Software Quality Assurance (SQA) framework. To facilitate compliance with SQA standards, the Cardinal SQA Program has been initiated during Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Incorporating the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology in a Performance Assessment Model - 20403

The evidence of climate change is increasingly well-documented and impacts should be incorporated in performance assessment studies. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. Probabilistic modeling is a core requirement for quantifying uncertainty and evaluating its impacts. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment because of the existence of uncertainty is contradictory to good modeling practices - the most uncertain issues and parameters require the most attention in effective probabilistic modeling. Excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. In this work we develop methods to use the output from hydrologic models and analysis of historical aerial imagery to quantify and implement the impacts of climate change on hydrologic processes at a nuclear waste site in West Valley, New York. Specifically, we used the HELP (Hydraulic Performance of Landfill Performance) model to characterize key hydrologic processes under both current and future climate conditions to assess the impacts of changing climate on hydrology. A suite of previous climatic models were reviewed and synthesized to produce a cohesive representation of the current state of knowledge of the impact of climate change on important model inputs such as precipitation. Output from the HELP simulations was coupled to the GoldSim model that was used to develop the Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) approach through the application of a novel 'nearest neighbor' technique. First, several thousand realizations were generated from the HELP model using a Latin Hypercube experimental design to ensure adequate coverage of the parameter space of explanatory variables used to drive HELP. For example, porosity is a physical parameter that is used as an input to both HELP and the GoldSim PA model. We then ran sensitivity analysis (SA) algorithms on the output of HELP for each of the responses of interest. For each predictor, each time we build an SA model we get a different value for the sensitivity index (SI). From the collection of all the SA models, the average was computed among all of the SIs to represent the predictor within the context of the nearest neighbor approach. That is, we conduct SA on each HELP outcome for each scenario. This gives us parameter sensitivity indices for the outcomes. We average the parameter sensitivity indices across the outcomes to get the average SI for a scenario. For each realization that is generated from the Goldsim PA model, Goldsim generates random values for physical/empirical parameters that HELP uses as well. For each vector of physical/empirical parameters that Goldsim generates, the vector from the 5,000 HELP runs that is most 'similar' to the Goldsim vector is computed using the nearest neighbor approach. In this context 'similar' means minimization of the SA-weighted sum of the absolute differences among the 5,000 values computed for this statistic, where each value corresponds to a different HELP realization. In order to account for the impacts of climate change, this process was repeated using the spatially downscaled future climate projections. For each of the key parameters of interest, it was assumed that a linear change depicted the relationship between the values for the present day and those for 2100. In this way, the climatically-driven changes in key parameters used to inform the GoldSim model are quantified and incorporated into the PA model output for the future. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗