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NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Estimation of Heatshield Mass Loss for Mars 2020 Entry Vehicle

The Mars2020 entry vehicle is currently being developed by NASA to safely land its next rover on the Martian surface in 2021. During entry, the vehicle will be protected from aerothermal environments using a PICA (Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator)-tiled heatshield. PICA loses mass through surface recession and in-depth pyrolysis as it is heated. Pre-flight knowledge of heatshield mass loss is required for vehicle balancing during critical mission events. This study attempts to predict the total mass loss experienced by the Mars2020's heatshield during its entry. A grid was created over the half of the heatshield which generated 108 points across a total of 9 spokes. Aero-thermal environments were provided from CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) calculations that considered a baselined trajectory. The TPS (Thermal Protection System) stack was a build-up of composite, aluminum, composite, an HT-424 bond, followed by PICA. The FIAT (Fully Implicit Ablation, Thermal-response) 1-D analysis utilized this TPS stack and the CFD environments and was run at each grid point giving mass flux information from the point of atmospheric entry until parachute deployment. The mass flux due to recession and pyrolysis gas was summed and integrated first through time and then across the half heatshield using a polar integration tool. The mass loss results were mirrored to the other half of the heatshield to calculate total mass loss throughout the entry phase of flight. This total mass loss value and its distribution was used by entry vehicle designers to account for CG (Center of Gravity) offset during parachute descent when the heatshield is no longer losing significant mass.

PICA↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Implementation of Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Space Launch System Vehicle Design

As NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) approaches first launch, the design has matured to a point where the manufacturing uncertainty has decreased now that many of the components of the launch vehicle have been manufactured and the flight engines have been successfully tested. Prior to this point, a method was required to qualify and capture the impact of the differences between simulation and reality, as well as any uncertainties in the SLS design. Two primary categories of uncertainty arise during the launch vehicle design process. The first represents flight-day uncertainties including dispersions due to winds and temperatures. These are typically examined by performing a Monte Carlo on 6 Degree of Freedom (6-DOF) simulations. The second category of uncertainties represents any manufacturing variations that are present at the individual component level of the launch vehicle design. These variations are constructed using statistical masses and tend to become better understood and refined as the design cycle matures, finally resulting in the launch vehicle as constructed and tested.

Stein, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Implementation of Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Space Launch System Vehicle Design

The Space Launch System uses a Maximum Likelihood Estimation process in conjunction with Design of Experiments to develop statistically representative vehicles for the Block 1 configuration. These vehicles are then used to estimate maximum load conditions for simulating stressing cases in other simulations. This paper discusses the modeling process and how SLS captures manufacturing uncertainty in the launch vehicle design. It also provides an overview of the differences between Block 1 statistical representations. This paper also discusses proper grid choice as well as which uncertainties drive the vehicle design.

Stein, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Wavenumber-frequency Spectra of Pressure Fluctuations on a Generic Space Vehicle Measured via Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint

Time histories of pressure fluctuations on a generic, hammerhead space vehicle model were measured using unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP). The test was conducted in the 11-foot transonic wind tunnel of NASA Ames Research Center over a Mach number range of 0.6 M 1.2, and angles of attack of -4 4. The model was coated with a porous binder and PtTFPP-based porous polymer paint. An elaborate system of four high-speed cameras, and forty LED lamps was used for image acquisition. Various steps for image registration, reduction of shot noise, photogrammetry procedure to map images from the four cameras on a grid for the model, and finally a calibration procedure to convert the measured fluctuations in light intensity to fluctuating pressure, are discussed in the paper. The calibration process using a set of unsteady pressure sensors mounted on the model, was found to overcome some of the inherent problems of the fast response paint, such as rapid photo-degradation, non-linearity in pressure response, and significant temperature sensitivity. Comparison of spectra of pressure fluctuations between UPSP and pressure sensors demonstrated the ability of the paint to faithfully follow fluctuations up to 10 kHz, the maximum attempted. It was also found that the camera bit-depth and the illumination level limited the lowest measurable levels of pressure fluctuations to around 140dB. The large data set exposed various critical transonic flow physics not seen before, such as a coupling of the shock motion on the Payload Fairing (PF) with the separated flow region on the upper stage of the launch vehicle, and upstream convection of pressure fluctuation on PF at certain Mach numbers. The data also confirmed the expectation of a general lowering of the coefficient of pressure fluctuation with Mach number. The availability of the data set on a dense, regularly-spaced, surface grid allowed for the calculation of wavenumber-frequency (k-) spectra via straightforward applications of Fourier transform. The k- spectra were compared for the separated flow regions on the Second Stage, and the shock-boundary layer interactions on PF. The former showed self-similarity with Mach number while the latter was distinctly different, and confirmed the upstream propagation of pressure fluctuations. The k- spectra were dominated by the convected fluctuations; the acoustic domain was not discernable. These data, valuable for the vibro-acoustics analysis of aerospace vehicles, are believed to be the first obtained for the transonic flight regime, and pave the path for application on production models of aerospace vehicles.

buffet↗
NASA NTRS1971

Launch Vehicle Estimating Factors for Use in Advance Space Mission Planning

This launch vehicle reference document contains mission characteristic and launch vehicle capability data for use by NASA and particularly the Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) in the preparation of future mission plans. The data in this reference book are derived from sources that are considered to be sufficiently accurate for advance planning. In no instance should these data be used for detailed mission planning without concurrence of the Director of Launch Vehicle and Propulsion Programs. This edition reflects updates in vehicle performance and possible availability and introduces a section on the Space Shuttle. The Shuttle section has been coordinated with the Office of Manned Space Flight.

McGolrick, Joseph E.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Detailed Design of an Earth Entry Vehicle for Comet Surface Sample Return

The 2013 Decadal Survey for New Frontiers missions identifies several high-value science missions, including Comet Surface Sample Return (CSSR). A CSSR mission will advance the scientific community's fundamental understanding of the origin of the solar system and the contribution of comets to the volatile inventory of the Earth. An entry capsule, or earth entry vehicle (EEV), is be required to protect the scientific payload from the extreme conditions of atmospheric entry, descent, and landing. The Decadal Survey Mission Concept Study along with an APL (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab) 2007-2008 Comet Surface Sample Mission Study details several of the driving requirements for a CSSR EEV; these include a payload volume and mass and inertial entry velocity of 9 kilometers per second. The mission concept study selected a Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) design concept derived from the Mars Sample Return (MSR) entry capsule design because of its increased reliability over a parachute-based vehicle. This presentation will explore detailed design of a CSSR-capable Earth Entry Vehicle, including trajectories, aeroheating predictions and associated thermal protection system masses, and onboard instrumentation for entry science.

Trajectory Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2019

Guidance and Navigation Design for a Martian Sample Return Ascent Vehicle

This paper focuses on the work being performed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in support of Mars Ascent Vehicles (MAVs). Specifically, the analysis presented is in support of Martian sample return architectures. In or-der to assess vehicle sensitivities, a detailed simulation tool, (MAV Analysis Tool in Simscape) MANTIS, was implemented using the MATLAB/Simulink Sim-scape architecture. High fidelity navigation sensor models and guidance algorithms were included in order to facilitate sensor requirement development and flight algorithm selection. This work focuses on the performance of the integrated system and the coupling of navigation and guidance capabilities. The architecture trades are heavily dependent on the ascent flight profile chosen. This work assesses both open- and closed-loop guidance algorithms to capture their relative performance and the resulting requirements on sensor capability to support preliminary vehicle design. The analysis builds on previous work that focused on navigation performance for initialization and ascent flight of crewed vehicle. The results provide insight into the coupling between sensor requirements and ascent guidance approach. The analysis provides data to support requirements for hard-ware selection and testing. Additional discussion is also included focusing on other system constraints that affect hardware selection and operational constraints.

Anzalone, Evan↗
NASA NTRS2017

Computationally Efficient Motion Planning Algorithms for Agile Autonomous Vehicles in Cluttered Environments

Fast, real-time motion planning of an agile, autonomous vehicle in a cluttered environment, with many geometrically-fixed obstacles, is a very complex problem, especially because of the vehicle dynamics constraints and resource constrained computational capabilities onboard the vehicle. In this paper, we present computationally-efficient versions of our novel motion planning algorithm called the Spherical Expansion and Sequential Convex Programming (SE–SCP) algorithm. The SE–SCP algorithm first uses a spherical-expansion-based randomized sampling algorithm to explore the workspace. Oncea path is found from the start position to the goal position, the algorithm computes a locally optimal trajectory, within its homotopy class for a desired cost function, by solving a sequence of convex optimization problems. Thus, the SE–SCP algorithm is anytime locally optimal and the trajectory is globally optimal if the number of samples tends to infinity. In this paper, we further enhance the computational efficiency of the SE–SCP algorithm using uni-directional and bi-directional rewiring techniques. We also present a detailed proof of the local optimality characteristics of the new SE–SCP algorithms for aspecial case of vehicle dynamics. Simulation examples involving quadrotor and spacecraft help demonstrate the effectiveness of our new algorithms.

Bandyopadhyay, Saptarshi↗
NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of a Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept

The design of a conceptual Mars ascent vehicle is a challenging problem. In order to aid the vehicle and mission concept design it is important to understand the driving design parameters and the expected performance in the presence of model errors and uncertainties. An existing six degree of freedom simulation model is analyzed on a statistical basis using the methods available in the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications toolkit. The methods utilized include conventional Monte Carlo techniques, metamodeling via polynomial chaos expansions, and global variance-based sensitivity analyses. Two additional analysis methods referred to as “Monte Carlo filtering” and ”Classification trees” are used to determine which uncertain parameters are driving the performance of the vehicle. Monte Carlo filtering provides a methodology to determine which parameters cause qualitatively different behavior while the classification trees use heuristics to partition the input space and assign probabilities to each partition. These methods serve as qualitative descriptors of model sensitivity while variance-based global sensitivity analysis seeks a quantitative mapping from total output variance to the variance of individual inputs. Application of these techniques to several outputs of a Mars ascent vehicle concept simulation indicates that only a select few input factors dominate their variance.

Noyes, Connor↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Design for a Two-Stage Solid Mars Ascent Vehicle

A solid propulsion system design is being considered for a conceptual Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) as part of a potential robotic Mars Sample Return campaign. A Preliminary Architecture Assessment for a MAV is being conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center. Experts from all relevant areas are involved in a rapid design and analysis cycle to define a MAV vehicle utilizing solid propulsion. The design presented here is the solid motor propulsion concept result of the study. Whereas solid motors have been used on Mars missions in the past during descent, none have been required to reside on the surface for a period of time prior to functioning. This difference will expose the MAV to relatively extreme temperatures. Other challenges exist in designing a solid propulsion system for MAV including performance interactions with other vehicle inert masses and minimizing orbit dispersions. These considerations were examined and a preliminary CAD model of the motors was created. Along with additional pertinent inputs from other disciplines, a solid propulsion vehicle concept for the MAV is described.

Prince, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2019

New Method for Systems and Cost Analysis of Human Mars Entry Vehicles

Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically not estimated until after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more efficiently. This paper describes an extension to the tool SAPE (Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing). This extension integrates the cost modeling software SEER-H (System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware) with a number of systems analysis tools. This new method is used to analyze several trade spaces of a HIAD (Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator) entry vehicle for human Mars missions. Key findings include quantifying the impacts of ballistic coefficient, main engine specific impulse, and thrust-to-weight ratio on the overall cost of the vehicle, and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.

Friz, Paul D.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Pterodactyl: Thermal Protection System for Integrated Control Design of a Mechanically Deployed Entry Vehicle

The need for precision landing of high mass payloads on Mars and the return of sensitive samples from other planetary bodies to specific locations on Earth is driving the development of an innovative NASA technology referred to as the Deployable Entry Vehicle (DEV). A DEV has the potential to deliver an equivalent science payload with a stowed diameter 3 to 4 times smaller than a traditional rigid capsule configuration. However, the DEV design does not easily lend itself to traditional methods of directional control. The NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD)’s Pterodactyl project is currently investigating the effectiveness of three different Guidance and Control (G&C) systems – actuated flaps, Center of Gravity (CG) or mass movement, and Reaction Control System (RCS) – for use with a DEV using the Adaptable, Deployable, Entry, and Placement Technology (ADEPT) design. This paper details the Thermal Protection System (TPS) design and associated mass estimation efforts for each of the G&C systems. TPS is needed for the nose cap of the DEV and the flaps of the actuated flap control system. The development of a TPS selection, sizing, and mass estimation method designed to deal with the varying requirements for the G&C options throughout the trajectory is presented. The paper discusses the methods used to i) obtain heating environments throughout the trajectory with respect to the chosen control system and resulting geometry; ii) determine a suitable TPS material; iii) produce TPS thickness estimations; and, iv) determine the final TPS mass estimation based on TPS thickness, vehicle control system, vehicle structure, and vehicle payload.

Hays, Zane B.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Hazardous Product Detection and Environmental Clean-up Removal in Spacecraft Vehicles from Fire Induced Li-Ion Fires

A fire on-board the International Space Station (ISS) resulting from a commercial Surface Pro tablet Lithium-Ion (Li-ion) battery can be detrimental to the spacercraft and the astronauts. The Spacecraft Fire Safety Demonstration (Saffire) program is focused on identifying and quantifying the risks that potentially arise inside a space vehicle by conducting large fire experiments inside the Cygnus cargo vehicle upon re-entry to Earth. The potential candidate that will be flown on the ISS is a 4- cell Li-ion battery pack Surface Pro tablet (42 Wh). The tablets were tested at the White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) using a localized heating method to emulate the failing mechanism that leads the unit into thermal runaway. Measurements inside the test chamber were performed on aerosol mass concentrations and for specific toxic products (i.e. from CO, HCN, HCl and CO2). These toxic products depend on the size of the fire and energy content of the tablet. Comparisons will be made with the Dell XPS (97 Wh). The concentrations are then used to extrapolate to laptop fires on a vehicle at the approximate volumetric size of the Orion spacecraft. The presentation provides an analysis on the detection capability and the response time to trigger fire alarms aboard a vehicle by using the mass concentration levels. These results will consider the rate at which the life support system is able to filter the atmosphere in order to provide a hazardous free environment.

Padilla, Rosa E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Pterodactyl: Trade Study for an Integrated Control System Design of a Mechanically Deployed Entry Vehicle

This paper presents a trade study method used to evaluate and down-select from a set of guidance and control (G&C) system designs for a mechanically deployable entry vehicle (DEV). The Pterodactyl project, funded by NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), was prompted by the challenge to develop an effective G&C system for a vehicle without a backshell, which is the case for DEVs. For the DEV, the project assumed a specific aeroshell geometry pertaining to an Adaptable, Deployable, Entry Placement Technology (ADEPT) vehicle, which was successfully developed by STMD prior to this study. The Pterodactyl project designed three different G&C systems for the vehicle's precise entry, which this paper briefly discusses. This paper details the Figures of Merit (FOMs) and metrics used during the course of the project's G&C system assessment. Each G&C configuration was traded against the three FOMs categories: G&C system performance, affordability and life cycle costs, and safety and mission success. The relative importance of the FOMs was determined from the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which was used to develop weights that were combined with quantitative design metrics and engineering judgement to rank the G&C systems against one another. This systematic method takes into consideration the project's input while simultaneously reducing unintentional judgement bias and ultimately was used to select a single G&C design for the project to continue pursuing in the next prototyping and testing phase.

Alunni, Antonella I.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Craig H Williams↗
NASA NTRS2019

Baseline Assumptions and Future Research Areas for Urban Air Mobility Vehicles

NASA is developing Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concepts to (1) create first-generation reference vehicles that can be used for technology, system, and market studies, and (2) hypothesize second-generation UAM aircraft to determine high-payoff technology targets and future research areas that reach far beyond initial UAM vehicle capabilities. This report discusses the vehicle-level technology assumptions for NASA’s UAM reference vehicles, and highlights future research areas for second-generation UAM aircraft that includes deflected slipstream concepts, low-noise rotors for edgewise flight, stacked rotors/propellers, ducted propellers, solid oxide fuel cells with liquefied natural gas, and improved turbo shaft and reciprocating engine technology. The report also highlights a transportation network-scale model that is being developed to understand the impact of these and other technologies on future UAM solutions.

Antcliff, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Evaluation of Composite Energy Absorbers for Use in UAM EVTOL Vehicle Impact Attenuation

The demand for new personal air-taxi services is leading to the development of lightweight Vertical Take-off and Landing (eVTOL) vehicles with electric propulsion for the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) industry. Manufacturers (OEMs) are considering many different designs to develop a vehicle that is able to take-off, cruise, and land autonomously with seating arrangements ranging between 2 and 15 passengers. It is unclear at present how the eventual market will mature; however, one of the common design characteristics noted by many of the OEMs is the use of advanced materials such as composites. A test and analysis program was initiated at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) in 2018 to evaluate the impact attenuation capabilities of various composite material systems with the goal of eventual implementation into an eVTOL vehicle. A series of 3-inch diameter by 6-inch length tubular specimens were fabricated from different material systems which included both traditional carbon and hybrid woven layers of fibers. Additionally, a subset of specimens were filled with closed-cell polyisocyanurate foam to help both with stabilization and crush response. The ultimate goal of the test program was to design a specimen capable of limiting the sustained crush acceleration to 20 g through a stable crush progression. After a series of material tests, these specimens were evaluated under both static and dynamic conditions for impact energy attenuation characteristics and crush stability. Additionally, a series of simulation models were developed in parallel to the test efforts. It is anticipated that the models developed using the component level test efforts can be used to help guide the development of a design for use in full-scale eVTOL vehicle applications.

Littell, Justin↗