Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Variability analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,621 records · Page 90

Errant Beam Prognostics with Machine Leaning at SNS Accelerator

Particle Accelerators are complex machine with many pieces of equipment running in synchronization to deliver required beam. However, faults in particle accelerators reduce the availability of the beam for experiments affecting the overall science output. To avoid these faults, we apply anomaly detection techniques to predict any unusual behavior and perform preemptive actions to improve the total availability. Many researchers have adopted semi-supervised Machine Learning (ML) methods such as auto-encoders and variational auto-encoders for such tasks. However, supervised ML techniques designed for similarity learning such as Siamese Neural Network (SNN) can outperform semi-supervised or unsupervised methods for anomaly prediction. One of the challenges associated with application of ML models to particle accelerators is the variability in observed data over time due to system configuration changes. We employ conditional models such as Conditional Siamese Neural Networks (CSNN), and Conditional-VAE (CVAE) to learn the variability in the data by using beam configuration parameters as conditional input. We apply these models for errant beam prediction at Spallation Neutron Source accelerator under different system configurations and compare their performance. We demonstrate that CSNN outperforms CVAE in our application. This talk will present the data source, collection, analysis, data-preparation, model development, hyper-parameter studies and the results.

Rajput, Kishansingh↗

Investigation into the instantaneous centre of rotation for enhanced design of floating offshore wind turbines

The dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) involves complex interactions of multivariate loads from wind, waves, and currents, which result in complex motion characteristics. Although methods for analysing global motion responses are well-established, the time- and location-dependent kinematics remain underexplored. This paper investigates the instantaneous centre of rotation (ICR), a point of zero velocity at a time instance of general plane motion. Understanding and strategically positioning the ICR can reduce the dynamic motion in critical structural locations, enhancing the performance and structural robustness of FOWTs. The paper presents a method for computing the ICR using time-domain simulation results and proposes a statistical analysis approach suitable for design studies. Building on prior research, it examines the sensitivity of the ICR to external loading and design features, providing insights into how these factors influence motion response and how the motion response influences the statistics of the ICR, structural loads, and other performance metrics of interest. The study explores two FOWT configurations, a spar and a semisubmersible, identifying design variables that most effectively control the ICR statistics and identifying the ICR statistics most correlated with the responses of interest. Finally, through two case studies, we demonstrate how to apply these new insights in a practical design scenario. By adjusting the design variables most correlated with the ICR (fairlead vertical position and centre of mass for the spar and mooring line length and offset column diameter for the semisubmersible), we successfully modified the designs of the floating support structures to reduce the loads in the mooring lines, tower base, and blade roots, improving the ultimate strength and fatigue characteristics compared to the original designs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Finite boundary effects on the spherical Rayleigh–Taylor instability between viscous fluids

For the Rayleigh–Taylor unstable arrangement of a viscous fluid sphere embedded in a finite viscous fluid spherical shell with a rigid boundary and a radially directed acceleration, a dispersion relation is developed from a linear stability analysis using the method of normal modes. [Formula: see text] is the radially directed acceleration at the interface. ρ i denotes the density, μ i is the viscosity, and R i is the radius, where i = 1 is the inner sphere and i = 2 is the outer sphere. The dispersion relation is a function of the following dimensionless variables: viscosity ratio [Formula: see text], density ratio [Formula: see text], spherical harmonic mode n, [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and the dimensionless growth rate [Formula: see text], where σ is the exponential growth rate. We show that the boundedness provided by the outer spherical shell has a strong influence on the instability behavior, which is reflected not only in the modulation of the growth rate but also in the selection of the most unstable modes that are physically possible. This outer boundary effect is quantified by the relative magnitude of the radius ratio H. We find that when H is close to unity, lower order harmonics are excluded from becoming the most unstable within a vast region of the parameter space. In other words, the effect of H has precedence over the other controlling parameters d, B, and a wide range of s in establishing what the lowest most unstable mode can be. When H ~ 1, low order harmonics can become the most unstable only for s >> 1. However, in the limit when s → ∞, we show that the most unstable mode is n = 1 and derive the dispersion relation in this limit. The exclusion of most unstable low order harmonics caused by a finite outer boundary is not realized when the outer boundary extends beyond a certain threshold length-scale in which case all modes are equally possible depending on the value of B.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Analysis of Respirator Cartridge Performance Testing on a Hanford AP Tank Farm Primary Exhauster Slipstream

Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) conducted tests on two types of chemical cartridges for use in air purifying respirators (APR) to determine the period of time that the cartridges would provide adequate performance1 for APRs used to protect workers when exposed to a mixture of Chemicals of Potential Concern (COPCs) from vapors exiting the exhauster for the Hanford AP tank farm. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) identifies cartridge testing as a valid approach for establishing a cartridge change schedules. Testing is commonly applied in situations where mixtures of COPCs exist, and where other approaches, such as manufacturer recommendations and modeling, are less reliable. The tests were designed and conducted to assure measurement and/or control of the key variables OSHA identified as important to estimate cartridge service life, including temperature, humidity, COPC concentration, breathing rate, and cartridge adsorption capacity. Testing was conducted from June 24-26, 2016, on a slipstream from the AP exhauster fed to a respirator cartridge test stand developed by WRPS in collaboration with HiLine Engineering (Richland, Washington). Multipurpose respirator cartridges, SCOTT 7422-SD1 and SCOTT 7422-SC1 (SCOTT Safety, Monroe, North Carolina) were assessed on separate days. Sample media (sorbent tubes) were used to collect samples of the vapor stream entering and exiting the respirator cartridge and were subsequently analyzed for COPC concentrations. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was tasked with conducting an independent analysis of the analytical results and making recommendations based on the results for respiratory cartridge performance and service life.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Role of Background Meridional Moisture Gradient on the Propagation of the MJO over the Maritime Continent

This study investigates the role of the background meridional moisture gradient (MMG) on the propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across the Maritime Continent (MC) region. It is found that the interannual variability of the seasonal mean MMG over the southern MC area is associated with the meridional expansion and contraction of the moist area in the vicinity of the MC. Sea surface temperature anomalies associated with relatively high and low seasonal mean MMG exhibit patterns that resemble those of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Therefore, by contrasting the years with anomalously low and high MMG, we show that MJO propagation through the MC is enhanced (suppressed) in years with higher (lower) seasonal mean MMG, although the effect is less robust when MMG anomalies are weak. Column-integrated moisture budget analysis further shows that sufficiently large MMG anomalies affect MJO activity by modulating the meridional advection of the mean moisture via MJO wind anomalies. Our results suggest that the background moisture distribution has a strong control over the propagation characteristics of the MJO in the MC region.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Kernel-based global sensitivity analysis obtained from a single data set

Results from global sensitivity analysis (GSA) often guide the understanding of complicated input–output systems. Kernel-based GSA methods have recently been proposed for their capability of treating a broad scope of complex systems. In this paper, we develop a new set of kernel GSA tools when only a single set of input–output data is available. Three key advances are made: (1) A new numerical estimator is proposed that demonstrates an empirical improvement over previous procedures. (2) A computational method for generating inner statistical functions from a single data set is presented. (3) A theoretical extension is made to define conditional sensitivity indices, which reveal the degree that the inputs carry shared information about the output when inherent input–input correlations are present. Utilizing these conditional sensitivity indices, a decomposition is derived for the output uncertainty based on what is called the optimal learning sequence of the input variables, which remains consistent when correlations exist between the input variables. Further, while these advances cover a range of GSA subjects, a common single data set numerical solution is provided by a technique known as the conditional mean embedding of distributions. The new methodology is implemented on benchmark systems to demonstrate the provided insights.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Optimizing Carbon Cycle Parameters Drastically Improves Terrestrial Biosphere Model Underestimates of Dryland Mean Net CO 2 Flux and its Inter-Annual Variability

Drylands occupy ~40% of the land surface and are thought to dominate global carbon (C) cycle inter-annual variability (IAV). Therefore, it is imperative that global terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), which form the land component of IPCC earth system models, are able to accurately simulate dryland vegetation and biogeochemical processes. However, compared to more mesic ecosystems, TBMs have not been widely tested or optimized using in situ dryland CO 2 fluxes. Here, for this work, we address this gap using a Bayesian data assimilation system and 89 site-years of daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data from 12 southwest US Ameriflux sites to optimize the C cycle parameters of the ORCHIDEE TBM. The sites span high elevation forest ecosystems, which are a mean sink of C, and low elevation shrub and grass ecosystems that are either a mean C sink or “pivot” between an annual C sink and source. We find that using the default (prior) model parameters drastically underestimates both the mean annual NEE at the forested mean C sink sites and the NEE IAV across all sites. Our analysis demonstrated that optimizing phenology parameters are particularly useful in improving the model's ability to capture both the magnitude and sign of the NEE IAV. At the forest sites, optimizing C allocation, respiration, and biomass and soil C turnover parameters reduces the underestimate in simulated mean annual NEE. Our study demonstrates that all TBMs need to be calibrated for dryland ecosystems before they are used to determine dryland contributions to global C cycle variability and long-term carbon-climate feedbacks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Search for an excited lepton that decays via a contact interaction to a lepton and two jets in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} =$ 13 TeV

Results are presented from a search for events containing an excited lepton (electron or muon) produced in association with an ordinary lepton of the same flavor and decaying to a lepton and two hadronic jets. Both the production and the decay of the excited leptons are assumed to occur via a contact interaction with a characteristic energy scale Λ. The branching fraction for the decay mode under study increases with the mass of the excited lepton and is the most sensitive channel for very heavy excited leptons. The analysis uses a sample of proton-proton collisions collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 77.4 fb$^{−1}$. The four-body invariant mass of the two lepton plus two jet system is used as the primary discriminating variable. No significant excess of events beyond the expectation for standard model processes is observed. Assuming that Λ is equal to the mass of the excited leptons, excited electrons and muons with masses below 5.6 and 5.7 TeV, respectively, are excluded at 95% confidence level. These are the best limits to date.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Burn parameters affect PAH emissions at conditions relevant for prescribed fires

Wildfire smoke is a health hazard as it contains carcinogenic volatile compounds and fine particulate matter. In particular, exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is a major concern, since these compounds have been recognized as important contributors to the overall carcinogenic risk. In this work, gas and particle-phase PAH emissions from combustion of Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus) were quantified using time-of-flight mass spectrometry over a range of burn conditions representative of wildfires and prescribed fires, including fuel moisture, heat flux, and oxygen concentration. We found that changing the burn environment lead to a variability of up to 77% in phenanthrene/anthracene emissions. This could explain a large part of the variability in PAH emission factors from biomass combustion reported in the literature. Here, we found that optimal conditions for fuel moisture content of 20–30%, sample heat load of 60 - 70 kW m -2 , and oxygen concentrations of 5–15% can significantly reduce the emissions of heavy molar weight PAHs. Our analysis showed that the relative carcinogenic risk from PAH exposure can be reduced by more than 50% under optimal conditions. In light of the increasing use of prescribed fire for forest management, the relationship between emissions and burn conditions that we have established provides a guidance for assessing the expected health impact from prescription burns, and can inform strategies to reduce PAH emissions from prescribed fire activities.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations but subjected to uncertainties associated with model physical parameterizations. In this study, we propose a framework to quantify and reduce model physical parameterization uncertainties associated with surface fluxes and L-A coupling. An ensemble of WRF simulations with different physical schemes is used to simulate surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. The physical parameterizations investigated include cloud microphysics (MP), land surface processes (LSM), planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and cumulus (CU). We perform 120 ensemble simulations using the WRF model and different combinations of six MPs, three LSMs, six PBLs and SLs and three CUs. The measurements from the GoAMAZON field campaign and satellite data are used to evaluate model performance. A Multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is applied to quantify the relative importance of different physics processes on L-A coupling. The Tukey’s test is used to sort schemes that have no significant differences into one group. The suite of physics that result in the best simulations of the corresponding variables are selected based on the Taylor skill score. Results show that the relative importance of processes and their interaction vary with the variables of interest. For example, CU was the most important process in modulating soil moisture, 2 m-humidity, latent heat, and net radiation. LSM showed dominant effects on 2 m-temperature and also has the largest impact on sensible heat and the lifting condensation level. The best physical parameterization ensembles show much narrower ranges of the variables of interest than the priori ensemble. Results of this study show the roles of different physical processes in modulating L-A interactions, quantify model uncertainties from physical processes, and provide insights for improving the model physics parameterizations.

Wang, Chen↗

The role of social support on midwestern farmers’ willingness to grow perennial bioenergy crops

The lack of farmers' willingness to grow perennial bioenergy crops (PBCs) presents a critical barrier to the emergence of cellulosic biofuel production. The willingness relies on a complex network of economic, environmental, and social drivers, among which the influence of social factors (e.g., the influence of neighborhood, community, and communication) is less understood. This study addresses this knowledge gap via a survey analysis of midwestern farmers. The survey data are analyzed through ordinary least square regression and structural equation model, which together investigate the individual and interactive impacts of multiple factors on farmers' decisions to adopt PBCs. Based on a farm-scale analysis, six statistically significant predictors of farmer willingness to grow PBCs are identified: perception of PBCs' environment benefits, education level, willingness to take risks, familiarity with PBCs, portion of peers already growing PBCs, and support of biorefineries locating in the local community. Among these, the latter three predictors are social support variables. It is found that familiarity with the crops is the most significant predictor of willingness; familiarity is also an important intermediate variable that mediates the influence of many other predictors. In addition, peer adoption can both directly and indirectly affect willingness via its influence on familiarity. Furthermore, these findings suggest that it is a pressing need to improve farmers’ knowledge of PBCs to promote the adoption of such crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Co-optimization of fuel properties, combustion system geometry, and injection strategy for conventional diesel fuel

Here, studies have shown that fuel properties can impact an engine’s operation in several ways, including ignition delay, sooting tendency, mixture formation, and combustion temperature. In mixing-controlled compression ignition (MCCI) engines, the fuel system design and piston bowl geometry significantly affect combustion performance and emissions. Based on current information, it is difficult to draw conclusions about fuel property effects and sensitivities. The central fuel hypothesis approach used in the US Department of Energy Co-Optima program has worked well for spark ignition fuels: identifying critical fuel property ranges is sufficient to screen fuel blends that are expected to maximize efficiency and reduce pollutant emissions. However, for MCCI-relevant fuels, the information gained from past studies is not sufficient to build such a merit function or to allow for performing a similar screening of fuel blends. It is hypothesized that a co-optimization of a fuel’s physical and chemical properties, combustion system geometry, and injection strategy could leverage synergies between the effects of the fuel properties and geometries, resulting in improved performance over state-of-the-art. A machine learning–assisted unconstrained global optimization algorithm was used to explore a design space comprising 23 independent variables. The results show that physical property effects were minimal even for large variations in fuel properties, and the only interaction effect that was observed was the effect of varied fuel density parameters on fuel/air mixture formation. Nevertheless, these interactions were not sufficient in magnitude to significantly affect optimization results. Therefore, analysis of the results suggests that fuel physical properties cannot be leveraged in a co-optimization context to increase engine efficiency.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The Energetic Origins of Pi–Pi Contacts in Proteins

Accurate potential energy models of proteins must describe the many different types of noncovalent interactions that contribute to a protein’s stability and structure. Pi–pi contacts are ubiquitous structural motifs in all proteins, occurring between aromatic and nonaromatic residues and play a nontrivial role in protein folding and in the formation of biomolecular condensates. Guided by a geometric criterion for isolating pi–pi contacts from classical molecular dynamics simulations of proteins, we use quantum mechanical energy decomposition analysis to determine the molecular interactions that stabilize different pi–pi contact motifs. We find that neutral pi–pi interactions in proteins are dominated by Pauli repulsion and London dispersion rather than repulsive quadrupole electrostatics, which is central to the textbook Hunter–Sanders model. This results in a notable lack of variability in the interaction profiles of neutral pi–pi contacts even with extreme changes in the dielectric medium, explaining the prevalence of pi-stacked arrangements in and between proteins. We also find interactions involving pi-containing anions and cations to be extremely malleable, interacting like neutral pi–pi contacts in polar media and like typical ion–pi interactions in nonpolar environments. Like-charged pairs such as arginine–arginine contacts are particularly sensitive to the polarity of their immediate surroundings and exhibit canonical pi–pi stacking behavior only if the interaction is mediated by environmental effects, such as aqueous solvation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Electrocardiographic changes predate Parkinson’s disease onset

Autonomic nervous system involvement precedes the motor features of Parkinson’s disease (PD). Our goal was to develop a proof-of-concept model for identifying subjects at high risk of developing PD by analysis of cardiac electrical activity. We used standard 10-s electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings of 60 subjects from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study including 10 with prevalent PD, 25 with prodromal PD, and 25 controls who never developed PD. Various methods were implemented to extract features from ECGs including simple heart rate variability (HRV) metrics, commonly used signal processing methods, and a Probabilistic Symbolic Pattern Recognition (PSPR) method. Extracted features were analyzed via stepwise logistic regression to distinguish between prodromal cases and controls. Stepwise logistic regression selected four features from PSPR as predictors of PD. The final regression model built on the entire dataset provided an area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval of 0.90 [0.80, 0.99]. The five-fold cross-validation process produced an average AUC of 0.835 [0.831, 0.839]. We conclude that cardiac electrical activity provides important information about the likelihood of future PD not captured by classical HRV metrics. Machine learning applied to ECGs may help identify subjects at high risk of having prodromal PD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data for The Role of Social Support on Midwestern Farmers’ Willingness to Grow Perennial Bioenergy Crops

The lack of farmers’ willingness to grow perennial bioenergy crops (PBCs) presents a critical barrier to the emergence of cellulosic biofuel production. The willingness relies on a complex network of economic, environmental, and social drivers, among which the influence of social factors (e.g., the influence of neighborhood, community, and communication) is less understood. This study addresses this knowledge gap via a survey analysis of midwestern farmers. The survey data are analyzed through ordinary least square regression and structural equation model, which together investigate the individual and interactive impacts of multiple factors on farmers’ decisions to adopt PBCs. Based on a farm-scale analysis, six statistically significant predictors of farmer willingness to grow PBCs are identified: perception of PBCs’ environment benefits, education level, willingness to take risks, familiarity with PBCs, portion of peers already growing PBCs, and support of biorefineries locating in the local community. Among these, the latter three predictors are social support variables. It is found that familiarity with the crops is the most significant predictor of willingness; familiarity is also an important intermediate variable that mediates the influence of many other predictors. In addition, peer adoption can both directly and indirectly affect willingness via its influence on familiarity. These findings suggest that it is a pressing need to improve farmers’ knowledge of PBCs to promote the adoption of such crops.

Economics↗

Subsurface microbial community structure shifts along the geological features of the Central American Volcanic Arc

Subduction of the Cocos and Nazca oceanic plates beneath the Caribbean plate drives the upward movement of deep fluids enriched in carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and iron along the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA). These compounds fuel diverse subsurface microbial communities that in turn alter the distribution, redox state, and isotopic composition of these compounds. Microbial community structure and functions vary according to deep fluid delivery across the arc, but less is known about how microbial communities differ along the axis of a convergent margin as geological features (e.g., extent of volcanism and subduction geometry) shift. Here, we investigate changes in bacterial 16S rRNA gene amplicons and geochemical analysis of deeply-sourced seeps along the southern CAVA, where subduction of the Cocos Ridge alters the geological setting. We find shifts in community composition along the convergent margin, with communities in similar geological settings clustering together independently of the proximity of sample sites. Microbial community composition correlates with geological variables such as host rock type, maturity of hydrothermal fluid and slab depth along different segments of the CAVA. This reveals tight coupling between deep Earth processes and subsurface microbial activity, controlling community distribution, structure and composition along a convergent margin.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Charging Hub Scenario Sheet Screenshot

The Excel-based CHECT tool estimates the LCOC ($/kWh) by charger type (Level 1, Level 2, and DC fast charging) for a given charging hub scenario. CHECT requires users to input certain charging hub scenario parameters, including the number of chargers, daily utilization, and charger replacement frequency by charger type. Additional inputs such as the charging schedule, local utility rates, capital/operational costs, and financial inputs can be customized by the user, or the tool can generate results using appropriate default values from literature for the charging hub scenario and service location(s). Using the above inputs, CHECT performs a robust techno-economic analysis to generate the LCOC by charger type, broken down by cost category (e.g., capital, operational, utility, taxes) for various combinations of charging hub types (multiunit dwelling or public) and ownership models (residential, utility, or private company). It also outputs the annual discounted cash flows and determines the most sensitive input variables. In addition, the tool allows users to easily compare the LCOC across various ownership models or across different states.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗