Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Routing”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,621 records · Page 90

CMIP6-based Multi-model Streamflow Projections over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1

This dataset presents an ensemble of streamflow projections covering the conterminous United States (CONUS), developed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). Multiple Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) were downscaled using either statistical (DBCCA) or dynamical (RegCM) downscaling methods, based on two meteorological reference datasets (Daymet and Livneh). Subsequently, the downscaled precipitation, temperature, and wind speed data were used to drive two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS), with total runoff routed through the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model, producing an ensemble of streamflow projections across 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches across the CONUS. Each ensemble member covers the 1980-2019 baseline and 2020-2059 near-future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario. Additionally, using only DBCCA and Daymet, the projections extend to the 2060-2099 far-future period and encompass three additional emission scenarios (SSP370, SSP245, and SSP126). This dataset is designed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Rastogi et al. (2022), and Ghimire et al. (2023).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

RouteE API

This is the API endpoint for RouteE energy prediction, which can be used to get both single vehicle link or route energy estimates and transportation network-wide energy consumption estimates for a variety of vehicles. This enables external researchers and transportation engineers to access and utilize NREL's growing library of pre-trained vehicle models for prediction of transportation energy consumption. This API provides three endpoints: • /route: Energy estimation of a vehicle over a planning link or sequence of links (route). • /network: Network-wide estimation of energy consumption for all vehicle traffic in the desired area. • /compass: Energy-optimal “eco-routing” between input origin and destination coordinates (Currently in beta for Denver metro area only).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

RouteE API

This is the API endpoint for RouteE energy prediction, which can be used to get both single vehicle link or route energy estimates and transportation network-wide energy consumption estimates for a variety of vehicles. This enables external researchers and transportation engineers to access and utilize NREL's growing library of pre-trained vehicle models for prediction of transportation energy consumption. This API provides three endpoints: - /route: Energy estimation of a vehicle over a planning link or sequence of links (route). - /network: Network-wide estimation of energy consumption for all vehicle traffic in the desired area. - /compass: Energy-optimal “eco-routing” between input origin and destination coordinates (Currently in beta for Denver metro area only).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

RouteE API

This is the API endpoint for RouteE energy prediction, which can be used to get both single vehicle link or route energy estimates and transportation network-wide energy consumption estimates for a variety of vehicles. This enables external researchers and transportation engineers to access and utilize NLR's growing library of pre-trained vehicle models for prediction of transportation energy consumption. This API provides three endpoints: - /route: Energy estimation of a vehicle over a planning link or sequence of links (route). - /network: Network-wide estimation of energy consumption for all vehicle traffic in the desired area. - /compass: Energy-optimal “eco-routing” between input origin and destination coordinates (Currently in beta for Denver metro area only).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Search for New Isotope Production Pathways

The isotope group at Jefferson Lab is carrying out R&D for producing medically interesting radioisotopes, especially those with theranostic (therapeutic and diagnostic) attributes. Here the search for viable production mechanisms has been expanded to multi-step reactions where a daughter is produced from the target and decays into a medically interesting granddaughter radioisotope. It is difficult to find efficient production routes when investigating both the initial excitation reaction as well as the decay routes leading to medically interesting isotopes. The overall goal of this project is to create a structured code in Python to find these decay routes by automatically exploring the large number of isotopes and their possible decay modes. The program structure is described, and preliminary results are presented.

Dabill, L.↗

Quantifying the Effects of Idle-Stop Systems on Fuel Economy in Light-Duty Passenger Vehicles

Vehicles equipped with idle-stop (IS) systems are capable of engine shut down when the vehicle is stopped and rapid engine re-start for the vehicle launch. This capability reduces fuel consumption and emissions during periods when the engine is not being utilized to provide propulsion or to power accessories. IS systems are a low-cost and fast-growing technology in the industry-wide pursuit of increased vehicle efficiency, possibly becoming standard features in European vehicles in the near future. In contrast, currently there are only three non-hybrid vehicle models for sale in North America with IS systems and these models are distinctly low-volume models. As part of the United States Department of Energy’s Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity, ECOtality North America has tested the real-world effect of IS systems on fuel consumption in three vehicle models imported from Europe. These vehicles were chosen to represent three types of systems: (1) spark ignition with 12-V belt alternator starter; (2) compression ignition with 12-V belt alternator starter; and (3) direct-injection spark ignition, with 12-V belt alternator starter/combustion restart. The vehicles have undergone both dynamometer and on-road testing; the test results show somewhat conflicting data. The laboratory data and the portion of the on-road data in which driving is conducted on a prescribed route with trained drivers produced significant fuel economy improvement. However, the fleet data do not corroborate improvement, even though the data show significant engine-off time. It is possible that the effects of the varying driving styles and routes in the fleet testing overshadowed the fuel economy improvements. More testing with the same driver over routes that are similar with the IS system-enabled and disabled is recommended. There is anecdotal evidence that current Environmental Protection Agency fuel economy test procedures do not capture the fuel economy gains that IS systems produce in real-world driving. The program test results provide information on the veracity of these claims.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Migratory Behavior and Survival of Juvenile Salmonids in the Lower Columbia River, Estuary, and Plume in 2010

Uncertainty regarding the migratory behavior and survival of juvenile salmonids passing through the lower Columbia River and estuary after negotiating dams on the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) prompted the development and application of the Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS). The JSATS has been used to investigate the survival of juvenile salmonid smolts between Bonneville Dam (river kilometer (rkm) 236) and the mouth of the Columbia River annually since 2004. In 2010, a total of 12,214 juvenile salmonids were implanted with both a passive integrated transponder (PIT) and a JSATS acoustic transmitter. Using detection information from JSATS receiver arrays deployed on dams and in the river, estuary, and plume, the survival probability of yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts tagged at John Day Dam was estimated form multiple reaches between rkm 153 and 8.3 during the spring. During summer, the survival probability of subyearling Chinook salmon was estimated for the same reaches. In addition, the influence of routes of passage (e.g., surface spill, deep spill, turbine, juvenile bypass system) through the lower three dams on the Columbia River (John Day, The Dalles, and Bonneville) on juvenile salmonid smolt survival probability from the dams to rkm 153 and then between rkm 153 and 8.3 was examined to increase understanding of the immediate and latent effects of dam passage on juvenile salmon survival. Similar to previous findings, survival probability was relatively high (>0.95) for most groups of juvenile salmonids from the Bonneville Dam tailrace to about rkm 50. Downstream of rkm 50 the survival probability of all species and run types we examined decreased markedly. Steelhead smolts suffered the highest mortality in this lower portion of the Columbia River estuary, with only an estimated 60% of the tagged fish surviving to the mouth of the river. In contrast, yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon smolts survived to the mouth of the river at higher rates, with estimated survival probabilities of 84% and 86%, respectively. The influence of route of passage at the lower three dams in the FCRPS on juvenile salmonid survival appeared to be relatively direct and immediate. Significant differences in estimated survival probabilities of juvenile salmonid smolts among groups with different dam passage experiences were often detected between the dams and rkm 153. In contrast, the influence of route of passage on survival to the mouth of the Columbia River was not apparent among the groups of tagged juvenile salmonids with different FCRPS passage experiences after they had already survived to a point about 80 km downstream of Bonneville Dam. Yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts that migrated through the lower estuary in off-channel habitats took two to three times longer to travel through these lower reaches and their estimated survival probabilities were not significantly different from that of their cohorts which migrated in or near the navigation channel. A large proportion of the tagged juvenile salmonids migrating in or near the navigation channel in the lower estuary crossed from the south side of the estuary near Astoria, Oregon and passed through relatively shallow expansive sand flats (Taylor Sands) to the North Channel along the Washington shore of the estuary. This migratory behavior may contribute to the avian predation losses observed on for fish (2 to 12% of fish in this study).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Potential Energy Corridors Proposed by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council

This report, Analysis of Potential Energy Corridors Proposed by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), was prepared by the Environmental Science Division of Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne). The intent of WECC’s work was to identify planning-level energy corridors that the Department of Energy (DOE) and its affiliates could study in greater detail. Argonne was tasked by DOE to analyze the WECC Proposed Energy Corridors in five topic areas for use in reviewing and revising existing corridors, as well as designating additional energy corridors in the 11 western states. In compliance with Section 368 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct), the Secretaries of Energy, Agriculture, and the Interior (Secretaries) published a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement in 2008 to address the proposed designation of energy transport corridors on federal lands in the 11 western states. Subsequently, Records of Decision designating the corridors were issued in 2009 by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS). The 2012 settlement of a lawsuit, brought by The Wilderness Society and others against the United States, which identified environmental concerns for many of the corridors requires, among other things, periodic reviews of the corridors to assess the need for revisions, deletions, or additions. A 2013 Presidential Memorandum requires the Secretaries to undertake a continuing effort to identify and designate energy corridors. The WECC Proposed Energy Corridors and their analyses in this report provide key information for reviewing and revising existing corridors, as well as designating additional energy corridors in the 11 western states. Load centers and generation hubs identified in the WECC analysis, particularly as they reflect renewable energy development, would be useful in reviewing and potentially updating the designated Section 368 corridor network. Argonne used Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to analyze the proposed energy corridors in the WECC report in five topic areas: • Federal land jurisdiction, • Existing Section 368 corridors, • Existing transmission lines, • Previously studied corridor locations, and • Protected areas. Analysis methods are explained and tables and maps are provided to describe the results of the analyses in all five topic areas. WECC used a rational approach to connecting the hubs it identified, although there may be opportunities for adapting some of the proposed WECC routes to previously designated Section 368 corridors, for example: • The WECC proposed energy corridors are in fact centerlines of proposed routes connecting hubs of various descriptions related to electric energy transmission. Although the centerlines were sited to avoid sensitive areas, infrastructure proposed within actual pathways or corridors defined by the centerlines would sometimes affect lands where such development would not normally be allowed, such as National Parks and Monuments, National Wildlife Refuges, and Wilderness Areas. • Many WECC proposed energy corridors are sited along centerlines of existing roads, including Interstate Highways, where in some cases additional width to accommodate energy transmission infrastructure may not be available. Examples include the WECC Proposed Corridor along Interstate 70 through Glenwood Canyon in Colorado, and along U.S. Highway 89 across Glen Canyon Dam in Arizona. • Several WECC proposed energy corridors are parallel to designated Section 368 corridors that have already cleared the preliminary steps to right-of-way approval. In many of these cases, the WECC hub connection objectives can be met more efficiently by routing on the designated Section 368 corridors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electricity Transmission, Pipelines, and National Trails: An Analysis of Current and Potential Intersections on Federal Lands in the Eastern United States, Alaska, and Hawaii

As has been noted in many reports and publications, acquiring new or expanded rights-of-way for transmission is a challenging process, because numerous land use and land ownership constraints must be overcome to develop pathways suitable for energy transmission infrastructure. In the eastern U.S., more than twenty federally protected national trails (some of which are thousands of miles long, and cross many states) pose a potential obstacle to the development of new or expanded electricity transmission capacity. However, the scope of this potential problem is not well-documented, and there is no baseline information available that could allow all stakeholders to study routing scenarios that could mitigate impacts on national trails. This report, Electricity Transmission, Pipelines, and National Trails: An Analysis of Current and Potential Intersections on Federal Lands in the Eastern United States, was prepared by the Environmental Science Division of Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne). Argonne was tasked by DOE to analyze the “footprint” of the current network of National Historic and Scenic Trails and the electricity transmission system in the 37 eastern contiguous states, Alaska, and Hawaii; assess the extent to which national trails are affected by electrical transmission; and investigate the extent to which national trails and other sensitive land use types may be affected in the near future by planned transmission lines. Pipelines are secondary to transmission lines for analysis, but are also within the analysis scope in connection with the overall directives of Section 368 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, and because of the potential for electrical transmission lines being collocated with pipelines. Based on Platts electrical transmission line data, a total of 101 existing intersections with national trails on federal land were found, and 20 proposed intersections. Transmission lines and pipelines are proposed in Alaska; however there are no locations that intersect national trails. Source data did not indicate any planned transmission lines or pipelines in Hawaii. A map atlas provides more detailed mapping of the topics investigated in this study, and the accompanying GIS database provides the baseline information for further investigating locations of interest. In many cases the locations of proposed transmission lines are not accurately mapped (or a specific route may not yet be determined), and accordingly the specific crossing locations are speculative. However since both national trails and electrical transmission lines are long linear systems, the characteristics of the crossings reported in this study are expected to be similar to both observed characteristics of the existing infrastructure provided in this report, and of the new infrastructure if these proposed projects are built. More focused study of these siting challenges is expected to mitigate some of potential impacts by choosing routes that minimize or eliminate them. The current study primarily addresses a set of screening-level characterizations that provide insights into how the National Trail System may influence the siting of energy transport facilities in the states identified under Section 368(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. As such, it initializes gathering and beginning analysis of the primary environmental and energy data, and maps the contextual relationships between an important national environmental asset and how this asset intersects with energy planning activities. Thus the current study sets the stage for more in-depth analyses and data development activities that begin to solve key transmission siting constraints. Our recommendations for future work incorporate two major areas: (1) database development and analytics and (2) modeling and scenario analysis for energy planning. These recommendations provide a path forward to address key issues originally developed under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 that are now being carried forward under the President’s Climate Action Plan.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Choreographer Pre-Testing Code Analysis and Operational Testing.

Choreographer is a "moving target defense system", designed to protect against attacks aimed at IP addresses without corresponding domain name system (DNS) lookups. It coordinates actions between a DNS server and a Network Address Translation (NAT) device to regularly change which publicly available IP addresses' traffic will be routed to the protected device versus routed to a honeypot. More details about how Choreographer operates can be found in Section 2: Introducing Choreographer. Operational considerations for the successful deployment of Choreographer can be found in Section 3. The Testing & Evaluation (T&E) for Choreographer involved 3 phases: Pre-testing, Code Analysis, and Operational Testing. Pre-testing, described in Section 4, involved installing and configuring an instance of Choreographer and verifying it would operate as expected for a simple use case. Our findings were that it was simple and straightforward to prepare a system for a Choreographer installation as well as configure Choreographer to work in a representative environment. Code Analysis, described in Section 5, consisted of running a static code analyzer (HP Fortify) and conducting dynamic analysis tests using the Valgrind instrumentation framework. Choreographer performed well, such that only a few errors that might possibly be problematic in a given operating situation were identified. Operational Testing, described in Section 6, involved operating Choreographer in a representative environment created through Emulytics TM . Depending upon the amount of server resources dedicated to Choreographer vis-á-vis the amount of client traffic handled, Choreographer had varying degrees of operational success. In an environment with a poorly resourced Choreographer server and as few as 50-100 clients, Choreographer failed to properly route traffic over half the time. Yet, with a well-resourced server, Choreographer handled over 1000 clients without missrouting. Choreographer demonstrated sensitivity to low-latency connections as well as high volumes of traffic. In addition, depending upon the frequency of new connection requests and the size of the address range that Choreographer has to work with, it is possible for all benefits of Choreographer to be ameliorated by its need to allow DNS servers rather than the end client to make DNS requests. Conclusions and Recommendations, listed in Section 7, address the need to understand the specific use case where Choreographer would be deployed to assess whether there would be problems resulting from the operational considerations described in Section 3 or performance concerns from the results of Operational Testing in Section 6. Deployed in an appropriate architecture with sufficiently light traffic volumes and a well-provisioned server, it is quite likely that Choreographer would perform satisfactorily. Thus, we recommend further detailed testing, to potentially include Red Team testing, at such time a specific use case is identified

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Next Generation Environmentally-Friendly Driving Feedback Systems Research and Development

The objective of this project is to design, develop, and demonstrate a next-generation, federal safety- and emission-complaint driving feedback system that can be deployed across the existing vehicle fleet and improve fleet average fuel efficiency by at least 2%. The project objective was achieved with the driving feedback system that encourages fuel-efficient vehicle travel and operation through: 1) Eco-Routing Navigation module that suggests the most fuel-efficient route from one stop to the next, 2) Eco-Driving Feedback module that provides sensible information, recommendation, and warning regarding fuel-efficient vehicle operation, and 3) Eco-Score and Eco-Rank module that provides a means for driving performance tracking, self-evaluation, and peer comparison. The system also collects and stores vehicle travel and operation data, which are used by Algorithm Updating module to customize the other modules for specific vehicles and adapts them to specific drivers over time. The driving feedback system was designed and developed as an aftermarket technology that can be retrofitted to vehicles in the existing fleet. It consists of a mobile application for smart devices running Android operating system, a vehicle on-board diagnostics connector, and a data server. While the system receives and utilizes real-time vehicle and engine data from the vehicle’s controller area network bus through the vehicle’s on-board diagnostic connector, it does not modify or interfere with the vehicle’s controller area network bus, and thus, is in compliance with federal safety and emission regulations. The driving feedback system was demonstrated and then installed on 45 vehicles from three different fleets for field operational test. These include 15 private vehicles of the general public, 15 pickup trucks of the California Department of Transportation that are assigned to individual employees for business use, and 15 shuttle buses of the Riverside Transit Agency that are used for paratransit service. Detailed vehicle travel and operation data including route taken, driving speed, acceleration, braking, and the corresponding fuel consumption, were collected both before and during the test period. The data analysis results show that the fleet average fuel efficiency improvements for the three fleets with the use of the driving feedback system are in the range of 2% to 9%. The economic viability of the driving feedback system is high. A fully deployed system would require capital investment in smart device ($150-$350) and on-board diagnostics connector ($50-$100) as well as paying operating costs for wireless data plan and subscription fees ($20-$30 per month) for connecting to the data server and receiving various system services. For individual consumers who already own a smart device (such as smartphone) and commercial fleets that already use some kind of telematics services, the costs for deploying this driving feedback system would be much lower.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Status Report on the Fabrication of Fuel Cladding Chemical Interaction Test Articles for ATR Irradiations

FeCrAl alloys are a promising new class of alloys for light water reactor (LWR) applications due to their superior oxidation and corrosion resistance in high temperature environments. The current R&D efforts have focused on the alloy composition and processing routes to generate nuclear grade FeCrAl alloys with optimized properties for enhanced accident tolerance while maintaining properties needed for normal operation conditions. Therefore, the composition and processing routes must be optimized to maintain the high temperature steam oxidation (typically achieved by increasing the Cr and Al content) while still exhibiting properties conducive to normal operation in a LWR (such as radiation tolerance where reducing Cr content is favorable). Within this balancing act is the addition of understanding the influence on composition and processing routes on the FeCrAl alloys for fuel-cladding chemical interactions (FCCI). Currently, limited knowledge exists on FCCI for the FeCrAl-UO 2 clad-fuel system. To overcome the knowledge gaps on the FCCI for the FeCrAl-UO2 clad-fuel system a series of fueled irradiation tests have been developed for irradiation in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) housed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The first series of tests has already been reported. These tests used miniaturized 17x17 PWR fuel geometry rodlets of second-generation FeCrAl alloys fueled with industrial Westinghouse UO 2 fuel. These rodlets were encapsulated within a stainless steel housing.To provide high fidelity experiments and more robust testing, a new series of rodlets have been developed deemed the Accident Tolerant Fuel Experiment #1 Oak Ridge National Laboratory FCCI test (ATF-1 ORNL FCCI). The main driving factor, which is discussed in detail, was to provide a radiation environment where prototypical fuel-clad interface temperatures are met while still maintaining constant contact between industrial fuel and the candidate cladding alloys, hence promoting FCCI between the fuel-clad systems. The other factor was to develop a test bed where multiple candidate alloys could be evaluated within a single irradiation test train, thereby reducing overall costs and increasing efficiency in alloy screening efforts. A collaboration between ORNL and INL was developed to facilitate the completion of the test bed for FCCI testing. The report highlights the activities related to the development of the ATF-1 ORNL FCCI rodlets for irradiation in INL’s ATR as part of the on-going ATF-1 experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Identification of Chemical Attribution Signatures of Fentanyl Syntheses Using Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Orthogonal Analytical Data

Attribution of the origin of an illicit drug relies on identification of compounds indicative of its clandestine production and is a key component of many modern forensic investigations. The results of these studies can yield detailed information on method of manufacture, starting material source, and final product - all critical forensic evidence. In the present work, chemical attribution signatures (CAS) associated with the synthesis of the analgesic fentanyl, N-(1-phenylethylpiperidin-4-yl)-N-phenylpropanamide, were investigated. Six synthesis methods, all previously published fentanyl synthetic routes or hybrid versions thereof, were studied in an effort to identify and classify route-specific signatures. 160 distinct compounds and inorganic species were identified using gas and liquid chromatographies combined with mass spectrometric methods (GC-MS and LCMS/ MS-TOF) in conjunction with inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICPMS). The complexity of the resultant data matrix urged the use of multivariate statistical analysis. Using partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA), 87 route-specific CAS were classified and a statistical model capable of predicting the method of fentanyl synthesis was validated and tested against CAS profiles from crude fentanyl products deposited and later extracted from two operationally relevant surfaces: stainless steel and vinyl tile. This work provides the most detailed fentanyl CAS investigation to date by using orthogonal mass spectral data to identify CAS of forensic significance for illicit drug detection, profiling, and attribution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Directed-Assembly of Block Copolymers for Large-Scale, Three-Dimensional, Optical Metamaterials at Visible Wavelengths. Final LDRD Report

Metamaterials are composites with patterned subwavelength features where the choice of materials and subwavelength structuring bestows upon the metamaterials unique optical properties not found in nature, thereby enabling optical applications previously considered impossible. However, because the structure of optical metamaterials must be subwavelength, metamaterials operating at visible wavelengths require features on the order of 100 nm or smaller, and such resolution typically requires top-down lithographic fabrication techniques that are not easily scaled to device-relevant areas that are square centimeters in size. In this project, we developed a new fabrication route using block copolymers to make over large device-relevant areas optical metamaterials that operate at visible wavelengths. Our structures are smaller in size (sub-100 nm) and cover a larger area (cm 2 ) than what has been achieved with traditional nanofabrication routes. To guide our experimental efforts, we developed an algorithm to calculate the expected optical properties (specifically the index of refraction) of such metamaterials that predicts that we can achieve surprisingly large changes in optical properties with small changes in metamaterials’ structure. In the course of our work, we also found that the ordered metal nanowires meshes produced by our scalable fabrication route for making optical metamaterials may also possibly act as transparent electrodes, which are needed in electrical displays and solar cells. We explored the ordered metal nanowires meshes’ utility for this application and developed design guidelines to aide our experimental efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Transportation Modeling and Global Health

A patient in the United States has been diagnosed with Ebola. Fear and panic kicks in across the country, and hospitals are inundated with hundreds of people, some infected with the highly contagious disease and others not. Blood tests are needed for positive diagnoses, but the diagnostic labs are overwhelmed with blood samples to test, and staff are overworked and stressed. Infected people need to be quarantined and treated, but it's hard to find rooms to quarantine so many patients. Sick people who need triage and regular care for other emergencies are afraid to go to hospitals for fear of Ebola, which has a 50% fatality rate. And since hospitals are so overwhelmed, sick people often stay home, infecting heathy people around them; the U.S. is now in the grips a full-blown Ebola outbreak. Sandia's high-performance computers simulated such a nightmare scenario recently, and with good reason. An Ebola outbreak in the United States could be devastating if hospitals are not prepared. When an Ebola outbreak in West Africa became a global concern in 2014, health advisers were alarmed at the length of time it took to properly diagnose infected people. In rural areas in Liberia, for example, blood samples from ailing people would be sent to a laboratory for testing, but the closest lab was hundreds of miles away through difficult and sometimes impassable roads. In more urban areas, blood samples would be sent to nearby labs, but those labs were often already overburdened by the sheer volume of samples to test. Staff at some treatment centers were unaware that a lab a little farther away might have the capacity to take in more samples. Meanwhile, undiagnosed infected people were unknowingly spreading the disease to many others around them, worsening the outbreak. The U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) posed a serious question: how do we improve blood-sample transportation routes in Liberia to ensure that samples taken from ill people are tested as quickly as possible, ensuring a proper diagnosis and faster treatment? Sandia scientists, already experts in transportation modeling for nuclear materials, quickly swarmed on this problem. The Sandia Ebola response team immediately set out to collect data from the region using available maps and local information, and transformed the raw data to GIS maps. Then, applying Sandia transportation routing algorithms, the team identified the optimal routes to get blood samples to the best laboratory for testing, even if that lab was not geographically the closest. The models also showed the best possible locations for mobile diagnostic laboratories that would better support the very rural regions that were most affected by the Ebola outbreak.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

LDRD 20190608ER: Diagnosing Near-Future Changes in Arctic Sea Ice and Ocean Conditions

Environmental changes in the Arctic present opportunities and increased hazards as potential shipping corridors open. We apply novel statistical techniques to simultaneously characterize multiple physical properties and uncertainties relevant for Arctic shipping, analyzing existing model projections to understand the likelihood of encountering high wind and low ice conditions along potential transportation routes through the Arctic Ocean. We assess the quality of Department of Energy (DOE) simulations against observed data, for these purposes. We find that the Arctic system is highly variable, but its large-scale patterns are captured by the models, allowing us to consider the two major shipping routes along Arctic coasts: the Northern Sea Route on the Russian side of the Arctic Ocean, and the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Our work highlights the usefulness and promise of DOE’s new modeling system (E3SM) as well as limitations of the models and observed data, such as resolution, differing types of information available from models and measurements, and challenges for quantifying uncertainty and bias. A procedure developed to increase predictability in Community Earth System Model simulations could be beneficial for E3SM. This research provides insight into Arctic trends and a baseline to articulate future model development needs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Radiological Monitoring Plan for the Oak Ridge Y-12 National Security Complex: Surface Water

DOE Order 458.1 requires that dose estimates consider contributions from all facilities. In the Y-12 Radiological Monitoring Plan (RMP), surface water is monitored at points that reflect individual facilities, as well as at points that reflect the combined contributions of all facilities. This monitoring plan does not consider other potential routes (i.e., airborne releases and food chains). Thus, a complete determination of total effective dose (TED) cannot be made based on this plan alone. The other routes from Y-12, and all routes from other DOE facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (e.g., Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and The Heritage Center), must be considered in order to satisfy DOE Order 458.1 requirements. Determination of TED from all sites and pathways is done through the use of dose-assessment models and is documented in the Annual Site Environmental Report. This monitoring plan provides adequate monitoring goals for Y-12 surface water releases to provide input of sufficient sensitivity and accuracy to reliably determine the Y-12 surface water component of the TED. The routine radiological monitoring program is designed to monitor effluents at four types of locations: (1) treatment facilities, (2) other point and area source discharges, (3) instream locations, and (4) production building roof run-off. With this sampling and analysis program, data will be obtained on primary point sources as well as on locations that represent the composite of other potential sources. This plan will be reviewed periodically to determine necessary modifications to the sampling frequencies, parameters, and locations. Modifications, if any, will be based on the analysis of the previous data and its effectiveness in satisfying the objectives of this plan. Appendix A contains graphs of the sum of the DCS fractions for locations and frequencies contained in a previous version of this plan. The data was collected from January 2009 through December 2019. Each sample was analyzed, and each result was divided by the appropriate DCS to compute a DCS fraction. These fractions were summed for all isotopes. According to DOE –STD-1196-2011, the annual average of these sums should be below 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Oregon Roadway CSZ Liquefaction and Landslide Impact Screening Analysis

The roadway transportation routes and the surrounding environments in Oregon will be subject to ground acceleration and potential associated deformation due to the propagation of waves of energy during a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. Linear features such as highways may be subject to partial or complete disruption of their function resulting from ground deformations at and along the roadway. A potential source of these disruptions associated with a CSZ event are landslides and liquefaction in the soils along and beneath the highways and local roadways. The construction of the Oregon roadway system and urban development have occurred largely along the banks of the rivers—those along the Pacific coast, and along the valleys throughout the Oregon Coast Range and Cascade Mountains. These locations also represent areas where landslides and liquefaction have occurred historically, or may potentially occur in the future, presenting a significant vulnerability for the roadway system and dependent post-CSZ earthquake emergency response and recovery effort. Many of the Oregon areas with landslide- and liquefaction-prone soils have the potential to impact roadway transportation routes after a major earthquake causing delays in establishing routes to transport emergency response personnel and resources to impacted areas and communities. This report presents methods used to project the impacts that CSZ earthquake-induced landslides and liquefaction may have on roadways across Oregon. First, this report presents an approach for estimating the risk of landslides to Oregon roadways, and determining approximate reopening times. Second, this report presents a similar approach for estimating the risk of liquefaction-induced ground displacements to roadway pavements, also resulting in approximate reopening times for roadway segments. The outcomes of these two ground failure analyses serve as inputs to a broader analysis of CSZ earthquake impacts to Oregon’s surface transportation system and its ability to support post-disaster response and recovery activities, as part of the Oregon Transportation Systems Regional Resiliency Assessment Program project (CISA 2021).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗