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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

MRCI Task 4: Evaluating Regional Infrastructure Technical Summary Report

The infrastructure required to enable carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) goes beyond the equipment and materials needed to capture, transport, and store carbon dioxide (CO2) but includes people and policy that make CCS feasible. The Infrastructure Assessment task of the Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI) seeks to determine the infrastructure requirements for the MRCI study area through four activities: • Infrastructure Readiness: Strategizing the buildout of capture, transport, and storage infrastructure in the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic Offshore. • Site Readiness: Determining the CCS readiness of each state in the MRCI region in the categories of subsurface readiness; infrastructure readiness; regulations, permitting, and incentives; and social dynamics. • Jobs, Economics, and Social Characteristics: Quantifying the economic potential, job opportunities, and training opportunities for CCS as well as the social characteristics of the region with a focus on energy and environmental justice (EJ) issues. • Policy and Regulations: Providing an updated accounting of the CCS-relevant policy and regulations in the MRCI region.

CCUS,Carbon storage,Midwest,Midwest Regional Carbo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Community Solar for All: Key Findings for State Energy Offices and State LIHEAP Agencies from the Inclusive Shared Solar Initiative

Despite the significant potential for community solar to reduce energy burdens and costs, it has largely remained out of reach for low-income households. While the U.S. community solar market has grown considerably over the last decade, as of December 2022 low to moderate-income (LMI) community solar represented just 2% of the overall market. Effective community solar policies and program decisions can help address this dynamic. State laws, policies, and program rules are critical to the development of community solar programs and projects that are affordable for and cater to the needs of LMI utility customers, who often face disproportionately high energy costs relative to their incomes. This report explores how two sets of state agencies in particular — State and Territory Energy Offices and State Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) Agencies —can help to streamline and prioritize the delivery of affordable and accessible shared solar. State Energy Offices are often involved in community solar policy and program design from inception, whether by supporting the enactment of enabling legislation or informing the development of program rules and regulations. State Energy Offices may also be charged with administering or overseeing the implementation of statewide community solar programs and, through the U.S. State Energy Program and other sources of funding, can provide resources and loans that enhance community, developer, and utility confidence and capacity to build, host, and derive value from projects. Relatedly, as implementers of federal LIHEAP block grants, State LIHEAP Agencies have a deep understanding of the needs of lower-income households and can help inform the design and delivery of community solar programs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Virtual to Physical: Reinforcement Learning to Optimize SNS Particle Accelerator Controls

Complex accelerators must have control systems that can handle dynamic nonlinear environments. This makes traditional control methods unsuitable as they can struggle to adapt to these uncertainties. This provides an ideal environment for reinforcement learning algorithms as they are adaptable and generalizable. We present a reinforcement learning pipeline that can effectively handle the dynamics of a complex accelerator. We test and prove our pipelines capabilities on multiple environments including the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and the Beam Test Facility (BTF) at Oakridge National Lab (ORNL). Due to the limited time available to train an online algorithm like reinforcement learning on a real accelerator, we utilize a virtual twin accelerator (VIRAC) developed by ORNL to pretrain the policy and show its ability to converge in the virtual environment. We then test the adaptability of the pretrained RL model by applying it on the real accelerator and comparing the results. Utilizing our Scientific Optimization and Controls Toolkit (SOCT) and open-source standards such as Gymnasium we create and solve for a MEBT orbit correction problem in the SNS and an emittance maximization problem in the BTF. We show how Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) can solve this optimization environment in the virtual accelerator and transfer this policy onto the real accelerator for inference and model retraining. We show how reinforcement learning can be utilized as a control system for complex accelerators and provide a model pipeline for how an implementation performs and can be adapted to new accelerator control problems.

Kasparian, Armen [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗
DOE OSTI2025

V-INT: Automated Vulnerability Intelligence and Risk Assessment

The project team, including the University of Arkansas (UA) as the lead, the University of Arkansas at Little Rock (UALR), Network Perception (NP), and Bastazo, has successfully researched, developed, and demonstrated the V-INT toolset, and also integrated it into the commercial products of NP (i.e., NP-View) and Bastazo (i.e., Spartan). The end product is a cybersecurity software tool for energy utilities that can automatically assess the risks of software vulnerabilities in an organization’s assets considering the organization’s firewall policies. It allows security operators to identify the small portion of vulnerabilities that poses true threats to their system (i.e., those that are not protected by firewall policies) and prioritize the mitigation of these vulnerabilities to minimize risks. It also allows security operators to identify the vulnerability-induced attack paths under their organization’s firewall policy, providing effective decision supports for mitigating potential attacks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Building Performance Standards and Energy Code Alignment - Technical Brief

Building energy codes focus on building design, construction and renovation and have significantly increased building efficiency since the first national energy code was published in 1975. Most jurisdictions have energy codes based on ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 (hereto referred to as Standard 90.1) and the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). Compliance options available in these model energy codes include a prescriptive path, whole building performance paths – including IECC Total Building Performance (TBP), Standard 90.1 Energy Cost Budget (ECB) method and Performance Rating Method (PRM) – and system performance paths for envelope and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems. Building performance standard (BPS) policies are an emerging policy tool used by jurisdictions to reduce the operational energy use or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the existing commercial building stock. BPS policies vary widely between jurisdictions and are tailored to each location’s climate and energy goals. Intuitively, projects that met a recent edition of the energy code should comply with the BPS targets. However, some new buildings may struggle with meeting the BPS for the following reasons: 1. Energy codes focus on the design of the building and its projected ability to perform efficiently, while BPS compliance is dependent on the actual ongoing performance of the building, considering variables like occupancy, operation, and maintenance. 2. There are significant differences in the methodologies used to determine BPS compliance versus code compliance, including how each handles compliance metrics, handling of building amenities, and renewable energy generation. 3. The prescriptive compliance path in the energy code is based on performance of individual building components, as opposed to the performance compliance path which accounts for holistic building design strategies and interdependent building systems. This can result in a significant variability in post-occupancy performance for buildings built using the prescriptive path. Designs on the lower end of the permitted efficiency range may struggle with meeting the BPS.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward 2035: Forging a High-Ambition U.S. Climate Pathway

This analysis takes an integrated, innovative approach to develop plausible, high-ambition pathways through 2035 to inform the third U.S. NDC target setting. This approach combines: (1) an extensive consultation and engagement process with a broad set of federal and subnational stakeholders to build a robust U.S. policy platform; and (2) an open-source, field-leading integrated assessment model focused on the U.S. containing subnational details. The modeling tool assesses existing and possible new policies from both federal and subnational levels to assess the overall emissions reduction potential and the policy pathways to deliver the ambition needed for 2035 and leading on to 2050. In addition, we highlight how different actors can contribute to the needed transition in each sector and showcase successful implementation stories by various subnational actors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

In Search of Strategic Advantage: Understanding the Landscape of Technology Competition

In an era of seemingly ever-increasing global tensions, technology competition is often mentioned as a pathway for U.S. and allied success. The opening arguments are often very simple. “This is the most important struggle of the 21st century.” “We cannot afford to lose this competition.” “The United States must not fall behind in this race.” “We must be faster, more agile, more committed, more thoughtful than our competitors.” Competition around a particular technology is described as a once in a generational struggle with immense stakes. “This is a Sputnik moment” is a common analogy. The solutions proposed are fairly straightforward – more of everything. We should spend more money. We should build more widgets or more factories. We should innovate more. We should focus more. We should attract more talent. We should file more patents. We should produce more PhDs. If we do more of everything, we will have more technology than our opponents, they will see our technological advantage, they will not challenge us, and therefore we will win. If we fail to do these things, we will lose. To paraphrase Homer Simpson, in national security policy discussions technology competition has become the cause of, and solution to, all of life’s problems. And yet, beyond doing more across the board technology competition is not at all simple. First, it is a concept increasingly muddled together with other big issues such as innovation policy, national defense strategy, great power competition, allied cooperation, public-private partnerships, and a host of other issues. Certain policies, systems, coalitions, and so on may be excellent for tackling one challenge, but far less optional for others. Second, it is inherently dynamic, an action-reaction cycle between multiple players. A brilliant opening move can be squandered or successfully countered in subsequent moves. Third, there are limits to what you can do - limited time, limited financial resources, limited human capital, and limited knowledge of what lies ahead. One is forced to choose.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge Graph for End-to-End Traceability of an Integrated Human-Earth System Model

Integrated human-Earth system models inform energy-water-land system dynamics and policies, yet their results are difficult to trace through input-data, model structure, scenario configurations, and solved outputs. Because this information is siloed across disconnected artifacts, process-based IAMs have historically lacked a unified, queryable representation. Such lack of traceability prevents researchers from systematically isolating the multi-sector drivers of complex outcomes (such as tracing water-scarcity results back to distant energy-system dynamics) or conducting holistic uncertainty attribution across hundreds of interacting parameters. To address this concern, our work documents the software engineering process of a knowledge graph that unifies these four layers for the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA_Reference scenario, GCAM v9.1). The graph was built as a relational property graph in DuckDB from the run’s own artifacts: the input-preparation dependency map (gcamdata chunk map), the model’s XML input files, the run configuration, and the results database (BaseX), successfully mapping the model’s declared structure. The resulting graph comprises 204,321 nodes and 1,687,814 edges across 16 node types and 15 edge types, with approximately 16.3 million time-series values stored separately to maintain structural efficiency. To ensure representation fidelity, every edge carries an epistemic-status annotation recording the warrant for the relationship (structural, provenance, dependency, or model-derived), and a machine-readable provenance ledger classifying the origin of every schema element. Evaluation against a fixed five-benchmark suite with locked baselines reports zero structural orphans, zero dangling edge endpoints, and 100% of output-producing technologies traceable to raw input files. Two interactive interfaces present the graph, including a serverless browser application built on DuckDB-Wasm. By establishing the first end-to-end provenance framework for an IAM, this work enables researchers and scientists to systematically audit complex policy scenarios, debug model structures, and trace policy-relevant outputs to their data origins in real time.

Artifical Intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2022

Why Terminology Matters for Successful Rollout of Carbon Dioxide Utilization Technologies

To realize their full sustainability potential, carbon dioxide utilization technologies (carbon capture and utilization/CCU) presently require policy support. Consequently, they require acceptance among a variety of stakeholders in industry, policy making, and in the public sphere alike. While CO 2 utilization is already a topic of discourse among these stakeholders, there is a lack of common terminology to describe such technologies. On the contrary: The present article shows that terminology in the field of CO 2 utilization technologies is currently used inconsistently, and that different designations such as CCU, CCUS, or CDR convey different meanings and contexts. These ambiguities may cause communication problems with regard to policy making, funding proposals, and especially in public discourse. In order to initiate and accompany a goal-oriented and knowledge-based debate on CO 2 utilization technologies in the future, actors in the field are asked to question their own choices of terminology and to assess its accuracy. Acronyms and technical abbreviations are the chief cause of potential misunderstandings, and so should be avoided whenever possible or else include a brief explanation. Consistent and precise use of terminology will facilitate transparent dialogue concerning CO 2 utilization in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future marine biofuels in the port of Seattle region

Marine transportation, a vital global sector, emits 3% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions, which are predicted to increase in the future. Marine biofuels derived from biomass or waste sources like wood residue, waste oil and municipal solid waste can be used for decarbonization. However, limited studies have explored if sufficient marine biofuels could be produced and supplied to major regional ports given feedstock, supply chain and technological constraints. We fill this gap by evaluating the feasibility of supplying marine biofuels to the Port of Seattle. The Regional Bio-Economy Model (RBEM) and the Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT) are used to build scenarios for simulating marine biofuel production in the Port region. We harmonized technoeconomic assumptions for RBEM and FTOT, input FTOT feedstock utilization and routing outputs into RBEM, and modelled conversion, feedstock, and policy scenario variations in RBEM. In RBEM, overall biofuel production was constrained primarily by the biofuel cost, and then by feedstock availability. Providing policy incentives and reducing permitting time frames alleviated these constraints and spurred the buildout of a robust industry through industrial learning dynamics in the initial years. With these measures in place, the RBEM results show that 100% of fuel demand at the Port can be supplied by biofuels with policy incentives and suitable technoeconomic conditions, but the addition of transportation cost considerations using FTOT led to 27.8% of demand being able to be met by biofuels at reasonable fuel delivery cost.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Operations Management of Mobility-on-Demand Systems

The emergence of the sharing economy in urban transportation networks has enabled new fast, convenient and accessible mobility services referred to as Mobilty-on-Demand systems (e.g., Uber, Lyft, DiDi). These platforms have flourished in the last decade around the globe and face many operational challenges in order to be competitive and provide good quality of service. A crucial step in the effective operation of these systems is to reduce customers' waiting time while properly selecting the optimal fleet size and pricing policy. In this paper, we jointly tackle three operational decisions: (i) fleet size, (ii) pricing, and (iii) rebalancing, in order to maximize the platform's profit or its customers' welfare. To accomplish this, we first devise an optimization framework which gives rise to a static policy. Then, we elaborate and propose dynamic policies that are more responsive to perturbations such as unexpected increases in demand. We test this framework in a simulation environment using three case studies and leveraging traffic flow and taxi data from Eastern Massachusetts, New York City, and Chicago. Our results show that solving the problem jointly could increase profits between 1% and up to 50%, depending on the benchmark. Moreover, we observe that the proposed fleet size yield utilization of the vehicles in the fleet is around 75% compared to private vehicle utilization of 5%.

Wollenstein-Betech, Salomón↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Air Pollutant Emissions in the Provincial Level Road Transportation Sector in Korea: A Case Study of the Zero-Emission Vehicle Subsidy

South Korea has been suffering from high PM2.5 pollution. Previous studies have contributed to establishing PM2.5 mitigation policies but have not considered provincial features and sector-interactions. In that sense, the integrated assessment model (IAM) could complement the shortcomings of previous studies. IAM, capable of analyzing PM2.5 pollution levels at the provincial level in Korea, however, has not been developed yet. Hence, this study (i) expands on IAM which can represent provincial-level spatial resolution in Korea (GCAM-Korea) with air pollutant emissions modeling which focuses on the road transportation sector and (ii) examines the zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) subsidy policy’s effects on PM2.5 mitigation using the expanded GCAM-Korea. Simulation results show that PM2.5 emissions decrease by 0.6–4.1% compared to the baseline, and the Seoul metropolitan area contributes 38–44% to the overall PM2.5 emission reductions. As the ZEVs subsidy is weighted towards the light-duty vehicle 4-wheels (LDV4W) sector, various spillover effects are found: ZEVs’ share rises intensively in the LDV4W sector leading to an increase in its service costs, and at the same time, driving bus service costs to become relatively cheaper. This, in turn, drives an increase in bus service demand and emissions discharge. Furthermore, this type of impact of the ZEVs subsidy policy does not reduce internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in freight trucks, although diesel freight trucks are a major contributor to PM2.5 emissions and also to NOx.

Roh, Minyoung↗
DOE OSTI2023

Light-duty Plug-in Electric Vehicles in China: Evolution, Competition, and Outlook

China's plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market with stocks at 7.8 million is the world's largest in 2021, and it accounts for half of the global PEV growth in 2021. The PEV market in China has dramatically evolved since the pandemic in 2020: over 20% of all new PEV sales are from China by mid-2022. Recent features of PEV market dynamics, consumer acceptance, policies, and infrastructure have important implications for both the global energy market and manufacturing stakeholders. From the perspective of demand pull-supply push, this study analyzes China's PEV industry with a market dynamics framework by reviewing sales, product and brand, infrastructure, and government policies from the last few years and outlooking the development of the new government’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025). From the demand side, small-sized sedans and compact sport utility vehicles with increased electric ranges are both popular for PEVs, and the electric range of over 60% of new battery electric vehicles in 2021 has been longer than 400 km. From the supply side, although foreign brands like Tesla are still competitive, the products by Chinese domestic automakers like BYD are becoming more attractive and cannibalizing the high-end market. However, the production capacity and cost of PEVs may be limited by the upstream of the supply chain – the battery manufacturing and supply chain inflation. In addition, it is also uncertain how much sales demand impacts will be caused by the potential global economic recession. The government firmly supports electrification and decarbonization of the vehicle industry by emphasizing the importance of the vehicle industry for promoting the greenhouse gas net zero by 2060. The dual-credit policy is regarded as the most critical regulation in a bid to restrain fuel consumption and promote PEV share. Still, the market is facing some technological obstacles, such as battery safety and driving range anxiety, before real prosperity. In addition, the Chinese electric vehicle market is seeing a trend toward the development of new technologies such as vehicle-to-X, autonomous driving, and connected vehicles.

Hao, Xu↗
DOE OSTI2019

Risk Communication and Community Resilience

Risk communication is crucial to building community resilience and reducing risk from extreme events.True community resilience involves accurate and timely dissemination of risk information to stakeholders. This book examines the policy and science of risk communication in the digital era. Themes include public awareness of risk and public participation in risk communication and resilience building. The first half of the book focuses on conceptual frameworks, components, and the role of citizens in risk communication. The second half examines the role of risk communication in resilience building and provides an overview of some of its challenges in the era of social media. This book looks at the effectiveness of risk communication in socially and culturally diverse communities in the developed and developing world.The interdisciplinary approach bridges academic research and applied policy action. Contributions from Latin America and Asia provide insight into global risk communication at a time when digital technologies have rapidly transformed conventional communication approaches. This book will be of critical interest to policy makers, academicians, and researchers, and will be a valuable reference source for university courses that focus on emergency management, risk communication, and resilience.

Kar, Bandana↗
DOE OSTI2017

Control and Cost-benefit Analysis of Fast Spreading Diseases: The case of Ebola

Mitigating the spread of infectious disease is of great importance for policy makers. Taking the recent outbreak of Ebola as an example, it was difficult for policy makers to identify the best course of action based on the cost-effectiveness of what was available. In effort to address the needs of policy makers to mitigate the spread of infectious disease before an outbreak becomes uncontrollable, we have devised a cost-benefit disease control model to simulate the effect of various control methods on disease incidence and the cost associated with each of the scenarios. Here, we present a case study of Ebola used to quantify the cost effectiveness of vaccination and isolation methods to minimize the spread of the disease. We evaluate the impact of changing strategy levels on the incidence of the disease and address the benefits of choosing one strategy over the other with regards to cost of vaccine and isolation. Disease. We use a general SEIRJ model for disease transmission. Here, S-Susceptible, E- Exposed (latent), IA– Infected (asymptomatic),IM– Infected (mild symptoms), IS– Infected (severe symptoms),JM– Isolated (mild symptoms at home), JS– Isolated (severe symptoms in hospital), and R- Recovered individuals. In this model, we consider the dynamics of the system and the effect of the relative transmissibility of isolated individuals (L) compared to other infected individuals. Cost. Ebola vaccination and treatment are very expensive and not widely available. Some preliminary data shows that it will take$73 million (M) to produce 27 M vaccines plus the cost for vaccine delivery and health care professionals (not included here). On the other hand, the treatment for Ebola in the U.S. would cost $25,000dollars a day per person to ensure proper isolation and adequate care(treatment, health care professionals, facilities and special equipment).Although not included in this research, the proper isolation of Ebola patients would also lead to a loss in hospital revenue of $148,000per day due to reduced patient capacity3. Here, we use $27,000 per individual hospitalized per day and $2.70 per person vaccinated. Model. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of control methods on disease transmission, we assessed the affect of different levels of vaccination coverage on the resulting number of infected individuals. Then, we calculated the overall estimated cost of vaccination and resulting hospitalization for each scenario to identify the lowest cost-benefit ratio. Using a base population of 10 M individuals, we ran scenarios for different levels of vaccination (μ= 0.01, 0.05, 0.1) while varying the relative transmissibility of isolated individuals (L = 0.5, 0.6, 0.65).For each combination, we calculated the incidence, vaccination and hospitalization cost per individual per day (Fig 1). We note that an increase in the relative transmissibility of isolated individuals leads to a higher number of infected people and, therefore, a reduced number of candidates for vaccination and an overall increase in cost. Since the cost of vaccination is 1 ten-thousandth of the cost of hospitalization, our results clearly show the cost-benefit of vaccinating over hospital treatment. In every scenario studied, we observed a measurable reduction in disease incidence when vaccinating a higher fraction of the population compared to isolating individuals post infection. Given these preliminary results, we plan to extend the framework of our model to a dynamic control system where we consider the cost of vaccination and isolation embedded in the system of differential equations. This approach will allow us see the best available control implementation while minimizing the cost of treatment and vaccination.

EBOLA↗
DOE OSTI2018

CERF – A Geospatial Model for Assessing Future Energy Production Technology Expansion Feasibility

Electricity system expansion planning faces significant challenges not only because of commonly modeled uncertainties such as future demand growth, fuel prices, and technology cost and performance, but also because of challenges such as climate change and carbon policies that can affect supply and demand. Changes in energy technology, natural resource availability, and population migration and growth will affect the feasibility of power plant siting, potentially hindering the achievement of policy goals. New modeling approaches are needed that couple future projections of energy system expansion with “on the ground” feasibility modeling—where both are informed by a consistent set of assumptions about future climate trends, resource availability, climate policy, socioeconomics, and environmental regulations. This research describes the development and evaluation of the Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model, a geospatial tool for scenario analysis of electricity system expansions.

grid expansion, water-energy nexus, power plant si↗
NASA NTRS1977

Organizing for low cost space transportation

The paper describes the management concepts and organizational structure NASA is establishing to operate the Space Transportation System. Policies which would encourage public and commercial organizations and private individuals to use the new STS are discussed, and design criteria for experiments, spacecraft, and other systems elements are considered. The design criteria are intented to facilitate cost reductions for space operations. NASA plans for the transition from currently used expendable launch vehicles to Shuttle use and Shuttle pricing policies are explained in detail. Hardware development is basically complete, management functions have been defined, pricing policies have been published, and procedures for user contact and services have been places into operation.

Lee, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Life cycle costing with a discount rate

This article studies life cycle costing for a capability needed for the indefinite future, and specifically investigates the dependence of optimal policies on the discount rate chosen. The two costs considered are reprocurement cost and maintenance and operations (M and O) cost. The procurement price is assumed known, and the M and O costs are assumed to be a known function, in fact, a non-decreasing function, of the time since last reprocurement. The problem is to choose the optimum reprocurement time so as to minimize the quotient of the total cost over a reprocurement period divided by the period. Or one could assume a discount rate and try to minimize the total discounted costs into the indefinite future. It is shown that the optimum policy in the presence of a small discount rate hardly depends on the discount rate at all, and leads to essentially the same policy as in the case in which discounting is not considered.

Posner, E. C.↗