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History and Development of Coronal Mass Ejections as a Key Player in Solar Terrestrial Relationship

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are relatively a recently discovered phenomenon in 1971, some 15 years into the Space Era. It took another two decades to realize that CMEs are the most important players in solar terrestrial relationship as the root cause of severe weather in Earths space environment. CMEs are now counted among the major natural hazards because they cause large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and major geomagnetic storms, both of which pose danger to humans and their technology in space and ground. Geomagnetic storms discovered in the 1700s, solar flares discovered in the 1800s, and SEP events discovered in the 1900s are all now found to be closely related to CMEs via various physical processes occurring at various locations in and around CMEs, when they interact with the ambient medium. This article identifies a number of key developments that preceded the discovery of white-light CMEs suggesting that CMEs were waiting to be discovered. The last two decades witnessed an explosion of CME research following the launch of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission in 1995, resulting in the establishment of a full picture of CMEs.

Gopalswamy, N.↗

The Interplanetary and Magnetospheric Causes of Extreme DB/dt at Equatorial Locations

The 1 min resolution solar wind and geomagnetic data obtained from seven equatorial low-latitude stations during four extreme geomagnetic activities are used to investigate the extreme dB/dt perturbations. Simulations of the magnetospheric-ionospheric environment were also performed for varying amplitudes of the solar proton density. Simulations were carried out using the Space Weather Modeling Framework BATS-R-US + RCM model. Both the observations and simulations demonstrated that the appearance time of the extreme dB/dt perturbations at equatorial stations during disturbed conditions is instantaneous and equitable to those experienced at auroral regions yielding time lags of the order of a few seconds. We find that the rapid dB/dt enhancements are caused by the electric field of magnetospheric current origin, which is being enhanced by solar wind density and ram pressure variations and boosted by the equatorial electro jet. Our results indicate that the solar wind proton density variations could be used as a predictor of extreme dB/dt enhancement at equatorial latitudes.

Adebesin, Babatunde O.↗

Space Weather Products and Tools Used in Auroral Monitoring and Forecasting at CCMC/SWRC

Key points discussed in this chapter are (1) the importance of aurora research to scientific advances and space weather applications, (2) space weather products at CCMC that are relevant to aurora monitoring and forecasting, and (3) the need for more effort from the whole community to achieve a better and long‐lead‐time forecast of auroral activity. Aurora, as manifestations of solar wind−magnetosphere−ionosphere coupling that occurs in a region of space that is relatively easy to access for sounding rockets, satellites, and other types of observational platforms, serves as a natural laboratory for studying the underlying physics of the complex system. From a space weather application perspective, auroras can cause surface charging of technological assets passing through the region, result in scintillation effects affecting communication and navigation, and cause radar cluttering that hinders military and civilian applications. Indirectly, an aurora and its currents can induce geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) on the ground, which poses major concerns for the wellbeing and operation of power grids, particularly during periods of intense geomagnetic activity. In addition, accurate auroral forecasting is desired for auroral tourism. In this chapter, we first review some of the existing auroral models and discuss past validation efforts. Such efforts are crucial in transitioning a model(s) from research to operations and for further model improvement and development that also benefits scientific endeavors. Then we will focus on products and tools that are used for auroral monitoring and forecasting at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). As part of the CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center), SWRC has been providing space weather services since 2010.

Zheng, Yihua↗

Space Weather Products and Tools Used in Auroral Monitoring and Forecasting at CCMC/SWRC

Key points discussed in this chapter are (1) the importance of aurora research to scientific advances and space weather applications, (2) space weather products at CCMC that are relevant to aurora monitoring and forecasting, and (3) the need for more effort from the whole community to achieve a better and long-lead- time forecast of auroral activity. Aurora, as manifestations of solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling that occurs in a region of space that is relatively easy to access for sounding rockets, satellites, and other types of observational platforms, serves as a natural laboratory for studying the underlying physics of the complex system. From a space weather application perspective, auroras can cause surface charging of technological assets passing through the region, result in scintillation effects affecting communication and navigation, and cause radar cluttering that hinders military and civilian applications. Indirectly, an aurora and its currents can induce geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) on the ground, which poses major concerns for the wellbeing and operation of power grids, particularly during periods of intense geomagnetic activity. In addition, accurate auroral forecasting is desired for auroral tourism. In this chapter, we first review some of the existing auroral models and discuss past validation efforts. Such efforts are crucial in transitioning a model(s) from research to operations and for further model improvement and development that also benefits scientific endeavors. Then we will focus on products and tools that are used for auroral monitoring and forecasting at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). As part of the CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center), SWRC has been providing space weather services since 2010.

Zheng, Yihua↗

Magnetosphere Dynamics During the 14 November 2012 Storm Inferred from TWINS, AMPERE, Van Allen Probes, and BATS-R-US-CRCM

During the 14 November 2012 geomagnetic storm, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft observed a number of sharp decreases ('dropouts') in particle fluxes for ions and electrons of different energies. In this paper, we investigate the global magnetosphere dynamics and magnetosphere- ionosphere (M-I) coupling during the dropout events using multipoint measurements by Van Allen Probes, TWINS, and AMPERE together with the output of the two-way coupled global BATS-R-US-CRCM model. We find different behavior for two pairs of dropouts. For one pair, the same pattern was repeated: (1) weak nightside Region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents before and during the dropout; (2) intensification of Region 2 currents after the dropout; and (3) a particle injection detected by TWINS after the dropout. The model predicted similar behavior of Birkeland currents. TWINS low-altitude emissions demonstrated high variability during these intervals, indicating high geomagnetic activity in the near-Earth tail region. For the second pair of dropouts, the structure of both Birkeland currents and ENA emissions was relatively stable. The model also showed quasi-stationary behavior of Birkeland currents and simulated ENA emissions with gradual ring current buildup. We confirm that the first pair of dropouts was caused by large-scale motions of the OCB (open-closed boundary) during substorm activity. We show the new result that this OCB motion was associated with global changes in Birkeland (M-I coupling) currents and strong modulation of low-altitude ion precipitation. The second pair of dropouts is the result of smaller OCB disturbances not related to magnetospheric substorms. The local observations of the first pair of dropouts result from a global magnetospheric reconfiguration, which is manifested by ion injections and enhanced ion precipitation detected by TWINS and changes in the structure of Birkeland currents detected by AMPERE. This study demonstrates that multipoint measurements along with the global model results enable the reconstruction of a more complete system-level picture of the dropout events and provides insight into M-I coupling aspects that have not previously been investigated.

Buzulukova, Natalia↗

SAMPEX Observations of the South Atlantic Anomaly Secular Drift During Solar Cycles 22-24

It is observed that charged particle intensities are very high near the South Atlantic anomaly (SAA) and are a potential hazard to spacecraft passing through the region. In this study, we examine the secular drift of the SAA location at approximately 400-600 kilometers altitude over nearly two solar cycles, using particle count rates to trace the geomagnetic field lines in the region near the SAA. We use data from the Low-Energy Ion Composition Analyzer sensor on board the SAMPEX (Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer) spacecraft to measure both the longitudinal and latitudinal drifts of the SAA. We find that the longitudinal drift rate is 0.20 plus or minus 0.04 degrees west per year and that the latitudinal drift rate is 0.11 plus or minus 0.01 degrees south per year. These measurements are compared with the IGRF12 (International Geomagnetic Reference Field) model calculations based on an analysis of magnetic field minima in the region of the SAA. Our results, which are in good agreement with model results and prior measurements when declining spacecraft altitude is taken into account, have important space weather implications.

Jones, A. D.↗

A Case Study Comparing Citizen Science Aurora Data with Global Auroral Boundaries Derived from Satellite Imagery and Empirical Models

Aurorasaurus is a citizen science project that offers a new, global data source consisting of ground-based reports of the aurora. For this case study, aurora data collected during the 17-18 March 2015 geomagnetic storm are examined to identify their conjunctions with Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite passes over the high latitude auroral regions. This unique set of aurora data can provide ground-truth validation of existing auroral precipitation models. Particularly, the solar wind driven, Oval Variation, Assessment, Tracking, Intensity, and Online Nowcasting (OVATION) Prime 2013 (OP-13) model and a Kp-dependent model of Zhang-Paxton (Z-P) are utilized for our boundary validation efforts. These two similar models are compared for the first time. Global equatorward auroral boundaries are derived from the OP 13 model and the DMSP Special Sensor Ultraviolet Spectrographic Imager (SSUSI) far ultraviolet (FUV) data using the Z-P model at a fixed flux level of 0.2 erg cm(exp -2)s(exp -1). These boundaries are then compared with citizen science reports as well as with each other. Even though there are some large differences between the global boundaries for a few cases, the average difference is about 1.5 deg in geomagnetic latitude, with OP-13 being equatorward of Z-P model. When these boundaries are compared with each other as a function of local time, no clear overall trend as a function of local time was observed. It is also found that the ground based reports are more consistent with the predictions of the OP-13 model.

Kosar, Burcu C.↗

ISEP: A Joint SRAG/CCMC Collaboration to Improve Mitigation of Space Weather Effects on Crew Health in the Exo-LEO Era

The Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is tasked with monitoring changes to space weather and mitigating any resultant impacts to crew health and safety. As human spaceflight goals extend from Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) missions like the International Space Station (ISS) to the moon, Mars and beyond, SRAG will need to update their current approach for crew monitoring of and protection from radiation exposure due to energetic Solar Particle Events (ESPEs). Challenges faced in planning exo-LEO missions include the lack of protection from the Earth’s geomagnetic field employed by the ISS in addition to limited communication capability between the crew and the ground. In the event of an ESPE, the current ISS trajectory ensures that the vehicle is only traveling through fields of higher radiation exposure for a brief period of time; the Earth’s geomagnetic field prevents the penetration of the high-energy particles of concern throughout the majority of the orbit. Exo-LEO missions, on the other hand, require that the vehicle travel through free space, exposing vehicle and crew to the full impact of the ESPE. NASA has combined multiple approaches to resolve this radiation exposure issue. New vehicles are designed to take advantage of advances in particle transport modeling capabilities and shielding technology, allowing redistribution of mass throughout the vehicle to areas of thinner shielding when the energetic particle flux has increased to levels of concern. Although vehicle shielding is an important aspect of radiation exposure protection, there is a continued requirement to monitor and predict the space weather environment. To this end, SRAG maintains a console position in Mission Control with 24/7 mission support capability. In the event of increased solar activity, SRAG collaborates with the Flight Control Team (FCT) to determine if crew action (i.e., shelter) is required. During any increase in solar activity, the FCT needs three pieces of information to effectively decide the crew response in light of other required mission tasks: if an event (ESPE) will occur, how ‘intense’ an observed event will be, and how long will an observed event will last. An ideal alert system limits false alarms, therefore causing the crew to take action unnecessarily, without ignoring events that pose a hazard to the crew. SRAG’s current operational concept for ISS missions focuses on short-term forecasts, best described as ‘now-casting’. Console operators are in daily communication with the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for situational awareness purposes. When conditions exist that may lead to increased solar activity, operators receive notifications from SWPC. In the case of a well-connected ESPE, the console operator may only have on the order of minutes to several hours to notify the FCT of the event and provide a recommendation for crew action. As NASA shifts to exo-LEO missions, the increased time in free space as well as the reduced ability to communicate with the crew will force a transition in crew protection strategy that emphasizes improvments to both the accuracy and the lead time in forecasting capabilities.

Barzilla, Janet E.↗

An Empirical Model of Radiation Belt Electron Pitch Angle Distributions Based On Van Allen Probes Measurements

Based on over 4 years of Van Allen Probes measurements, an empirical model of radiation belt electron equatorial pitch angle distribution (PAD) is constructed. The model, developed by fitting electron PADs with Legendre polynomials, provides the statistical PADs as a function of L-shell (L = 1-6), magnetic local time, electron energy (~30 keV to 5.2 MeV), and geomagnetic activity (represented by the Dst index) and is also the first empirical PAD model in the inner belt and slot region. For megaelectron volt electrons, model results show more significant day-night PAD asymmetry of electrons with higher energies and during disturbed times, which is caused by geomagnetic field configuration and flux radial gradient changes. Steeper PADs with higher fluxes around 90° pitch angle and lower fluxes at lower pitch angles for higher energy electrons and during active times are also present, which could be due to electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave scattering. For hundreds of kiloelectron volt electrons, cap PADs are generally present in the slot region during quiet times and their energy-dependent features are consistent with hiss wave scattering, while during active times, cap PADs are less significant especially at outer part of slot region, which could be due to the complex energizing and transport processes. The 90°-minimum PADs are persistently present in the inner belt and appear in the slot region during active times, and minima at 90° pitch angle are more significant for electrons with higher energies, which could be a critical evidence in identifying the underlying physical processes responsible for the formation of 90°-minimum PADs.

Zhao, H.↗

The Magnetosphere Ionosphere Electron Precipitation Dynamics and Their Geospace Consequences During the 17 March 2013 Storm

During geomagnetic storms and substorms, the magnetosphere and ionosphere are strongly coupled by precipitating magnetospheric electrons from the Earth's plasma sheet and driven by both magnetospheric and ionospheric processes. Magnetospheric wave activity initiates electron precipitation, and the ionosphere and upper atmosphere further facilitate this process by enhancing the value of precipitated energy uxes via connection of two magnetically conjugate regions and multiple atmospheric reections. This paper focuses on the resulting electron energy uxes and afliated heightintegrated Pedersen and Hall conductances in the auroral regions produced by multiple atmospheric reections during the 17 March 2013 geomagnetic storm and their effects on the inner magnetospheric electric eld and ring current. Our study is based on the magnetically and electrically selfconsistent Rice ConvectionModelEquilibrium of the inner magnetosphere with SuperThermal Electron Transport modied electron energy uxes that take into account the electron energy interplay between the two magnetically conjugate ionospheres. SuperThermal Electron Transportmodied energy ux in the Rice ConvectionModelEquilibrium leads to a signicant difference in the global conductance pattern, ionospheric electric eld formation, Birkeland current structure, ring current energization and its energy content, subauroral polarization drifts intensications and their spatial locations, interchange instability redistribution, and overall energy interplay on the global scale.

Khazanov, George V.↗

Characteristics of Relativistic Microburst Intensity from SAMPEX Observations

Relativistic electron microbursts are an important electron loss process from the radiation belts into the atmosphere. These precipitation events have been shown to significantly impact the radiation belt fluxes and atmospheric chemistry. In this study we address a lack of knowledge about the relativistic microburst intensity using measurements of 21,746 microbursts from the Solar Anomalous Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX).We find that the relativistic microburst intensity increases as we move inward in L, with a higher proportion of low-intensity microbursts (<2,250 [MeV cu.cm sr s](exp −1)) in the 03–11 magnetic local time region. The mean microburst intensity increases by a factor of 1.7 as the geomagnetic activity level increases and the proportion of high-intensity relativistic microbursts (>2,250 [MeV cu.cm2 sr s](exp −1)) in the 03–11 magnetic local time region increases as geomagnetic activity increases, consistent with changes in the whistler mode chorus wave activity. Comparisons between relativistic microburst properties and trapped fluxes suggest that the microburst intensities are not limited by the trapped flux present alongside the scattering processes. However, microburst activity appears to correspond to the changing trapped flux; more microbursts occur when the trapped fluxes are enhancing, suggesting that microbursts are linked to processes causing the increased trapped fluxes. Finally, modeling of the impact of a published microburst spectra on a flux tube shows that microbursts are capable of depleting <500-keV electrons within 1 hr and depleting higher-energy electrons in 1–23 hr.

Douma, E.↗

International Space Station Spacecraft Charging Environments: Modeling, Measurement and Implications for Future Human Space Flight Programs

Spacecraft charging analysis and migration is an interdisciplinary subject combining aspects of electrostatics, plasma physics, ionizing radiation, and materials science, as well as electronic system electromagnetic interference and compatibility (EMI/EMC) effects. Spacecraft charging hazards are caused by the accumulation of electrical charge on spacecraft and spacecraft components produced by interactions with space plasmas, energetic charged particles, and solar UV photons as well as spacecraft electrical power and propulsion systems operations. Spacecraft charging hazard effects include both hard and soft avionics and electrical power system anomalies and have led to the partial or complete loss of numerous spacecraft. The International Space Station (ISS) orbital altitude and inclination (~400 km and 51.6o) determined the dominant natural environment factors affecting ISS spacecraft charging; high speed flight through the geomagnetic field and electrical power system interaction with the cold, high-density ionospheric plasma. In addition ISS is exposed to energetic auroral electrons at high latitude. In this paper we present the results of ISS spacecraft charging modeling and measurements and compare the measurements with numerical modeling of ISS charging processes. ISS is a large metallic structure and flight through the geomagnetic field at orbital speed dominates ISS charging. Collection of ionospheric electrons by the large 160V PV arrays is the next largest contributor. Charging by auroral electrons is detectable but makes a relatively minor contribution. Finally we report the observation of short duration (~ 1 sec) rapid charging peaks associated with shunt/un-shunt operations of the 160V PV arrays, a phenomena not predicted before flight. ISS spacecraft charging environments are radically different from those encountered at higher altitudes in Earth?s magnetosphere and in cis-Lunar space. We present a brief review of those charging environments and an assessment of the applicability of ISS spacecraft charging management and experience to future human spaceflight programs beyond LEO.

Koontz, Steven L.↗

Advances in Space Radiation Physics and Transport

The space radiation environment is a complex mixture of particle types and energies originating from sources inside and outside of the galaxy. These environments may be modified by the heliospheric and geomagnetic conditions as well as planetary bodies and vehicle or habitat mass shielding. In low Earth orbit (LEO), the geomagnetic field deflects a portion of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and all but the most intense solar particle events (SPE). There are also dynamic belts of trapped electrons and protons with low to medium energy and intense particle count rates. In deep space, the GCR exposure is more severe than in LEO and varies inversely with solar activity. Unpredictable solar storms also present an acute risk to astronauts if adequate shielding is not provided. Near planetary surfaces such as the Earth, moon or Mars, secondary particles are produced when the ambient deep space radiation environment interacts with these surfaces and/or atmospheres. These secondary particles further complicate the local radiation environment and modify the associated health risks. Characterizing the radiation fields in this vast array of scenarios and environments is a challenging task and is currently accomplished with a combination of computational models and dosimetry. The computational tools include models for the ambient space radiation environment, mass shielding geometry, and atomic and nuclear interaction parameters. These models are then coupled to a radiation transport code to describe the radiation field at the location of interest within a vehicle or habitat. Many new advances in these models have been made in the last decade, and the present review article focuses on the progress and contributions made by workers and collaborators at NASA in the same time frame. Although great progress has been made, and models continue to improve, significant gaps remain and are discussed in the context of planned future missions. Of particular interest is the juxtaposition of various review committee findings regarding the accuracy and gaps of combined space radiation environment, physics, and transport models with the progress achieved over the past decade. While current models are now fully capable of characterizing radiation environments in the broad range of forecasted mission scenarios, it should be remembered that uncertainties still remain and need to be addressed.

Space radiation↗

Comparison of Recent Solar Minima Using SABER Data and the Thermosphere Climate Index

The solar minimum at the end of Solar Cycle (SC) 23 was surprisingly long and deep, and it is predicted that the SC 24 minimum will be similar. We present results from analysis of the two most recent solar minima in terms of their duration in time and the degree of cooling that occurs, along with comparisons to the minima of five preceding solar cycles. Measurements of infrared emissions from NO and CO2 made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere Using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the NASA Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite for nearly 19 years allow us to see the effects of solar minima in the thermosphere. These data,and products derived from them, including the Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI), provide direct, quantitative information on the state of the upper atmosphere and enable comparisons of different SCs. The TCI extends the SABER record of nitric oxide infrared emission at 5.3 ìm using a linear multiple regression fit of solar and geomagnetic indices to the daily cooling power derived from SABER NO. Thus the TCI provides a 73-year measure of solar variability in Earth’s atmosphere and permits determination of the relative contribution of solar irradiance and geomagnetic processes at solar minimum and throughout the solar cycle. Results of these calculations will be presented to compare solar minima for the six solar cycles included in the TCI time series.

thermosphere↗

Dynamics of the Terrestrial Radiation Belts: a Review of Recent Results During the VarSITI (Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact) Era, 2014–2018

The Earth’s magnetosphere is region that is carved out by the solar wind as it flows past and interacts with the terrestrial magnetic field. The inner magnetosphere is the region that contains the plasmasphere, ring current, and the radiation belts all co-located within about 6.6 Re, nominally taken to be bounding this region. This region is highly dynamic and is home to a variety of plasma waves and particle populations ranging in energy from a few eV to relativistic and ultra-relativistic electrons and ions. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) embedded in the solar wind via the process of magnetic reconnection at the sub-solar point sets up plasma convection and creates the magnetotail. Magnetic reconnection also occurs in the tail and is responsible for explosive phenomena known as substorms. Substorms inject low-energy particles into the inner magnetosphere and help generate and sustain plasma waves. Transients in the solar wind such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs), and interplanetary shocks compress the magnetosphere resulting in geomagnetic storms, energization, and loss of energetic electrons in the outer radiation belt and enhance the ring current, thereby driving the geomagnetic dynamics. The Specification and Prediction of the Coupled Inner-Magnetospheric Environment (SPeCIMEN) is one of the four elements of VarSITI (Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact) program which seeks to quantitatively predict and specify the inner magnetospheric environment based on Sun/solar wind driving inputs. During the past 4 years, the SPeCIMEN project has brought together scientists and researchers from across the world and facilitated their efforts to achieve the project goal. This review provides an overview of some of the significant scientific advances in understanding the dynamical processes and their interconnectedness during the VarSITI era. Major space missions, with instrument suites providing in situ measurements, ground-based programs, progress in theory, and modeling are briefly discussed. Open outstanding questions and future directions of inner magnetospheric research are explored.

Shrikanth Kanekal↗

Reversion to the mean of the Solar Wind Input to the Magnetosphere

Earth’s magnetosphere responds to solar wind input over time scales ranging from minutes to days. On minute times scales, researchers seek to identify discontinuities in the solar wind that may trigger transient magnetospheric phenomena such as flux transfer events or substorm onsets. On hour time scales, researchers seek to determine the solar wind phenomena that drive the growth phase of geomagnetic substorms and the storage of magnetic flux within the magnetotail. On longer time scales, researchers seek to determine the solar wind features than propel geomagnetic storms through their initial, main, and recovery phases. Researchers must, perforce, rely upon spacecraft located near the L1 libration point for observations of the solar wind input into the magnetosphere over periods ranging from hours to days. Some of the hazards of doing this are well known. Features seen far upstream at locations away from the Sun-Earth line may never arrive at Earth due to structure in the solar wind transverse to the Sun-Earth line. Alternatively, they may arrive at unexpected times due to errors in calculating their orientation and velocity. Other hazards when predicting the magnetospheric response to varying solar wind conditions are less well understood. When observations of large solar wind drivers at spacecraft far upstream and off the Sun-Earth line are used to select events for study, the ‘reversion to the mean’ effect associated with spatial structure and errors in arrival timing for solar wind features at Earth demands that the magnetosphere will actually be subjected to and respond to solar wind drivers with much lower strengths. Consequently, the magnetospheric response must saturate for the highest solar wind drivers.

David Sibeck↗

Identification of Flux Rope Orientation via Neural Networks

Geomagnetic disturbance forecasting is based on the identification of solar wind structures and accurate determination of their magnetic field orientation. For nowcasting activities, this is currently a tedious and manual process. Focusing on the main driver of geomagnetic disturbances, the twisted internal magnetic field of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), we explore a convolutional neural network’s (CNN) ability to predict the embedded magnetic flux rope’s orientation once it has been identified from in situ solar wind observations. Our work uses CNNs trained with magnetic field vectors from analytical flux rope data. The simulated flux ropes span many possible spacecraft trajectories and flux rope orientations. We train CNNs first with full duration flux ropes and then again with partial duration flux ropes. The former provides us with a baseline of how well CNNs can predict flux rope orientation while the latter provides insights into real-time forecasting by exploring how accuracy is affected by percentage of flux rope observed. The process of casting the physics problem as a machine learning problem is discussed as well as the impacts of different factors on prediction accuracy such as flux rope fluctuations and different neural network topologies. Finally, results from evaluating the trained network against observed ICMEs from Wind during 1995–2015 are presented.

Thomas Narock↗

Imaging the End-to-End Dynamics of the Global Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interaction

Much of what we know about the solar wind’s interaction with the Earth’s magnetosphere has been gained from isolated in situ measurements by single or multiple spacecraft. Based on their observations, we know that reconnection, whether on the dayside magnetopause or deep within the Earth’s magnetotail, controls the flow of solar wind energy into and through the global system. We know that nightside activity provides the energized particles that power geomagnetic storms. But by their very nature these isolated in situ measurements cannot provide an instantaneous global view of the entire system or its cross-scale dynamics. As a result, we don’t know which mode of reconnection prevails on the dayside magnetopause or within the magnetotail as a function of solar wind and geomagnetic conditions. We don’t know which mode or modes of nightside activity supply the most energized particles to the ring current. Nor do we know the dominant loss mode for ring current decay: precipitation, magnetopause outflow, or charge exchange with neutrals. Nor do we know how processes deep within the magnetosphere provide feedback to those happening in the outer magnetosphere. The answers to these questions could have an impact far beyond magnetospheric physics, since magnetic reconnection, particle acceleration, and charge-exchange are fundamental plasma processes that operate at other planets and throughout the universe. Comprehensive end-to-end global imaging of the key micro, meso-, and macro-scale plasma structures that comprise the magnetosphere will provide the answers to these questions via observations with a spatial resolution that exceeds anything possible with in situ measurements. Each proposed interaction mechanism generates a diagnostic plasma structure or boundary signature. Global, end-to-end, imaging provides the pathway to understanding the system as a whole, its constituent parts, and its cross-scale processes on a continuous basis, as needed to quantify the flow of solar wind energy through the global magnetospheric system. The significance of each mechanism is the product of its amplitude and occurrence rate. This white paper describes how a comprehensively-instrumented single spacecraft in a high-latitude circular polar orbit can provide the essential observations needed to track and quantify the flow of solar wind energy through the magnetosphere, including the solar wind plasma and magnetic field input, the magnetopause location in soft X-rays, the auroral oval in far ultraviolet, the ring current in energetic neutrals, the plasmasphere in extreme ultraviolet, the exosphere in Lyman-, the microstructure of the nightside auroral oval in ground-based all sky cameras, and the magnetic perturbations of ionospheric current patterns seen by ground-based magnetometers.

D G Sibeck↗