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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,621 records · Page 90

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NASA NTRS1994

Simultaneous three-dimensional velocity and mixing measurements by use of laser Doppler velocimetry and fluorescence probes in a water tunnel

A water tunnel investigation was conducted to demonstrate the capabilities of a laser-based instrument that can measure velocity and fluorescence intensity simultaneously. Fluorescence intensity of an excited fluorescent dye is directly related to concentration level and is used to indicate the extent of mixing in flow. This instrument is a three-dimensional laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) in combination with a fluorometer for measuring fluorescence intensity variations. This capability allows simultaneous flow measurements of the three orthogonal velocity components and mixing within the same region. Two different flows which were generated by two models were studied: a generic nonaxisymmetric nozzle propulsion simulation model with an auxiliary internal water source that generated a jet flow and an axisymmetric forebody model with a circular sector strake that generated a vortex flow. The off-body flow fields around these models were investigated in the Langley 16- by 24-Inch Water Tunnel. The experimental results were used to calculate 17 quantities that included mean and fluctuating velocities, Reynolds stresses, mean and fluctuating dye fluorescence intensities (proportional to concentration), and fluctuating velocity and dye concentration correlations. An uncertainty analysis was performed to establish confidence levels in the experimental results. In general, uncertainties in mean velocities varied between 1 and 7 percent of free-stream velocity; uncertainties in fluctuating velocities varied between 1 and 5 percent of reference values. The results show characteristics that are unique to each type of flow.

Neuhart, Dan H.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the multisectoral impacts of future global hydrologic variability

There is significant uncertainty in how global water supply will evolve in the future, due to uncertain climate, socioeconomic, and land use change drivers and variability of hydrologic processes. It is critical to characterize the potential impacts of uncertainty in future water supply given its importance for food and energy production. In this work, we introduce a framework that integrates stochastic hydrology and human-environmental systems to characterize uncertainty in future water supply and its multisector impacts. We develop a global stochastic watershed model and demonstrate that this model can generate a large ensemble of realizations of basin-scale runoff with global coverage that preserves the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of a historical benchmark. We couple this model with a well-known human-environmental systems model to explore the impacts of runoff variability on the water and agricultural sectors across spatial scales. We find that the impacts of future hydrologic variability vary across sectors and regions. Impacts are felt most strongly in the water and agricultural sectors for basins that are expected to have unsustainable water use in the future, such as the Indus River basin. For this basin, we find that the variability in future irrigation water withdrawals and irrigated cropland increase over time due to uncertainty in renewable water supply. We also use the Indus basin to show how our stochastic ensemble can be leveraged to explore the global multisector consequences of local extreme runoff conditions. This work introduces a novel technique to explore the propagation of future hydrologic variability across human and natural systems and spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Large liquid rocket engine transient performance simulation system

Phase 1 of the Rocket Engine Transient Simulation (ROCETS) program consists of seven technical tasks: architecture; system requirements; component and submodel requirements; submodel implementation; component implementation; submodel testing and verification; and subsystem testing and verification. These tasks were completed. Phase 2 of ROCETS consists of two technical tasks: Technology Test Bed Engine (TTBE) model data generation; and system testing verification. During this period specific coding of the system processors was begun and the engineering representations of Phase 1 were expanded to produce a simple model of the TTBE. As the code was completed, some minor modifications to the system architecture centering on the global variable common, GLOBVAR, were necessary to increase processor efficiency. The engineering modules completed during Phase 2 are listed: INJTOO - main injector; MCHBOO - main chamber; NOZLOO - nozzle thrust calculations; PBRNOO - preburner; PIPE02 - compressible flow without inertia; PUMPOO - polytropic pump; ROTROO - rotor torque balance/speed derivative; and TURBOO - turbine. Detailed documentation of these modules is in the Appendix. In addition to the engineering modules, several submodules were also completed. These submodules include combustion properties, component performance characteristics (maps), and specific utilities. Specific coding was begun on the system configuration processor. All functions necessary for multiple module operation were completed but the SOLVER implementation is still under development. This system, the Verification Checkout Facility (VCF) allows interactive comparison of module results to store data as well as provides an intermediate checkout of the processor code. After validation using the VCF, the engineering modules and submodules were used to build a simple TTBE.

Mason, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Orbital transfer rocket engine technology program: Soft wear ring seal technology

Liquid oxygen (LOX) compatibility tests, including autogenous ignition, promoted ignition, LOX impact tests, and friction and wear tests on different PV products were conducted for several polymer materials as verification for the implementation of soft wear ring seals in advanced rocket engine turbopumps. Thermoplastics, polyimide based materials, and polyimide-imide base materials were compared for oxygen compatibility, specific wear coefficient, wear debris production, and heat dissipation mechanisms. A thermal model was generated that simulated the frictional heating input and calculated the surface temperature and temperature distribution within the seal. The predictions were compared against measured values. Heat loads in the model were varied to better match the test data and determine the difference between the measured and the calculated coefficients of friction.

Lariviere, Brian W.↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Contributions of Gauge-Based Precipitation and SMAP Brightness Temperature Observations to the Skill of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission L-band brightness temperature (Tb) observations are routinely assimilated into the Catchment land surface model to generate Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) estimates of global surface and root-zone soil moisture at 9-km, 3-hourly resolution with ~2.5-day latency. The Catchment model in the L4_SM algorithm is driven with ¼-degree, hourly surface meteorological forcing data from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). Outside of Africa and the high latitudes, GEOS precipitation is corrected using Climate Prediction Center Unified (CPCU) gauge-based, ½-degree, daily precipitation. L4_SM soil moisture was previously shown to improve over land model-only estimates that use CPCU precipitation but no Tb assimilation (CPCU_SIM). Here, we additionally examine the skill of model-only (CTRL) and Tb assimilation-only (SMAP_DA) estimates derived without CPCU precipitation. Soil moisture is assessed versus in situ measurements in well-instrumented regions and globally through the Instrumental Variable (IV) method using independent soil moisture retrievals from the Advanced Scatterometer. At the in situ locations, SMAP_DA and CPCU_SIM have comparable soil moisture skill improvements relative to CTRL for the unbiased root-mean-square error (surface and root-zone) and correlation metrics (root-zone only). In the global average, SMAP Tb assimilation increases the surface soil moisture anomaly correlation by 0.10-0.11 compared to an increase of 0.02-0.03 from the CPCU-based precipitation corrections. The contrast is particularly strong in central Australia, where CPCU is known to have errors and observation-minus-forecast Tb residuals are larger when CPCU precipitation is used. Validation versus streamflow measurements in the contiguous U.S. reveals that CPCU precipitation provides most of the skill gained in L4_SM runoff estimates over CTRL.

SMAP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Methods for System-Level Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Analysis of Low-Boom Flight Vehicles

Current research supporting NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology project is focused on the efficient prediction of uncertainty in sonic boom loudness generated by low-boom aircraft concepts. This paper focuses on research incorporating aircraft trim and aerostructural analysis into a multidisciplinary system-level uncertainty analysis. This enables the modeling of a steady-state representation of a point in the uncertainty space, simulating the vehicle as it would be flown. This approach also enables multiple uncertain parameters defining the configuration of the vehicle to be reduced to three: Mach number, altitude, and aircraft weight. To demonstrate this methodology, a case study exploring a conceptual low-boom supersonic aircraft is performed. Two different approaches are used to model the interactions between nearfield pressure signature analysis and sonic boom propagation, and their performance is evaluated in terms of accuracy and computational expense. One method uses a set of local surrogate models to generate a large number of nearfield signatures and perform Monte Carlo analysis. This method is found to produce, at a lower expense, uncertainty metrics that are comparable to the second method, in which uncertainty metrics are computed based on loudness metric values obtained directly from simulated nearfield signatures.

UQ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Method for System-Level Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Analysis of Low-Boom Flight Vehicles

Supersonics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding and Explicitly Measuring Linguistic and Stylistic Properties of Deception via Generation and Translation

Massive digital disinformation is one of the main risks of modern society. Hundreds of models and linguistic analyses have been done to compare and contrast misleading and credible content online. However, most models do not remove the confounding factor of a topic or narrative when training, so the resulting models learn a clear topical separation for misleading versus credible content. We study the feasibility of using two strategies to disentangle the topic bias from the models to understand and explicitly measure linguistic and stylistic properties of content from misleading versus credible content. First, we develop conditional generative models to create news content that is characteristic of different credibility levels. We perform multi-dimensional evaluation of model performance on mimicking both the style and linguistic differences that distinguish news of different credibility using machine translation metrics and classification models. We show that even though generative models are able to imitate both the style and language of the original content, additional conditioning on both the news category and the topic leads to reduced performance. In a second approach, we perform deception style ``transfer" by translating deceptive content into the style of credible content and vice versa. Extending earlier studies, we demonstrate that, when conditioned on a topic, deceptive content is shorter, less readable, more biased, and more subjective than credible content, and transferring the style from deceptive to credible content is more challenging than the opposite direction.

Saldanha, Emily G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Systems and methods for screening particle source manufacturing and development test data

A computing system obtains test data for a particle source. The test data was generated by the particle source when the particle source was caused to emit particles. The test data comprises a first set of measurements of a first type and a second set of measurements of a second type. The computing system applies a data agnostic predictive model to the test data. The data agnostic predictive model is generated without a parametric analysis of variables of the first type and variables of the second type. The data agnostic predictive model outputs, based upon the test data, a value that is indicative of whether or not the test data is abnormal. Based upon the value, the computing system outputs an indication that the particle source was operating sub-optimally when emitting the particles.

Multari, Rosalie A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Internal variability and forcing influence model–satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming

Climate-model simulations exhibit approximately two times more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite observations since 1979. The causes of this difference are not fully understood and are poorly quantified. Here, we apply machine learning to relate the patterns of surface-temperature change to the forced and unforced components of tropical tropospheric warming. This approach allows us to disentangle the forced and unforced change in the model-simulated temperature of the midtroposphere (TMT). In applying the climate-model-trained machine-learning framework to observations, we estimate that external forcing has produced a tropical TMT trend of 0.25 ± 0.08 K⋅decade −1 between 1979 and 2014, but internal variability has offset this warming by 0.07 ± 0.07 K⋅decade −1 . Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ensemble, we also find that a discontinuity in the variability of prescribed biomass-burning aerosol emissions artificially enhances simulated tropical TMT change by 0.04 K⋅decade −1 . The magnitude of this aerosol-forcing bias will vary across climate models, but since the latest generation of climate models all use the same emissions dataset, the bias may systematically enhance climate-model trends over the satellite era. Our results indicate that internal variability and forcing uncertainties largely explain differences in satellite-versus-model warming and are important considerations when evaluating climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The future of Earth system prediction: Advances in model-data fusion

Predictions of the Earth system, such as weather forecasts and climate projections, require models informed by observations at many levels. Some methods for integrating models and observations are very systematic and comprehensive (e.g., data assimilation), and some are single purpose and customized (e.g., for model validation). We review current methods and best practices for integrating models and observations. We highlight how future developments can enable advanced heterogeneous observation networks and models to improve predictions of the Earth system (including atmosphere, land surface, oceans, cryosphere, and chemistry) across scales from weather to climate. As the community pushes to develop the next generation of models and data systems, there is a need to take a more holistic, integrated, and coordinated approach to models, observations, and their uncertainties to maximize the benefit for Earth system prediction and impacts on society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

What Makes You Hold on to That Old Car? Joint Insights From Machine Learning and Multinomial Logit on Vehicle-Level Transaction Decisions

What makes you hold on to that old car? While the vast majority of household vehicles are still powered by conventional internal combustion engines, the progress of adopting emerging vehicle technologies will critically depend on how soon the existing vehicles are transacted out of the household fleet. Leveraging a nationally representative longitudinal data set, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study examines how household decisions to dispose of or replace a given vehicle are: 1) influenced by the vehicle’s attributes, 2) mediated by households’ concurrent socio-demographic and economic attributes, and 3) triggered by key life cycle events. Coupled with a newly developed machine learning interpretation tool, TreeExplainer, we demonstrate an innovative use of machine learning models to augment traditional logit modeling to both generate behavioral insights and improve model performance. We find the two gradient-boosting-based methods, CatBoost and LightGBM, are the best performing machine learning models for this problem. The multinomial logistic model can achieve similar performance levels after its model specification is informed by TreeExplainer. Both machine learning and multinomial logit models suggest that while older vehicles are more likely to be disposed of or replaced than newer ones, such probability decreases as the vehicles serve the family longer. Pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles are less likely to be disposed of or replaced than cars, and leased vehicles are more likely to be transacted than owned vehicles. We find that married families, families with higher education levels, homeowners, and older families tend to keep their vehicles longer. Life events such as childbirth, residential relocation, and change of household composition and income are found to increase vehicle disposal and/or replacement. We provide additional insights on the timing of vehicle replacement or disposal, in particular, the presence of children and childbirth events are more strongly associated with vehicle replacement among younger parents.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1977

A simulation model for wind energy storage systems. Volume 2: Operation manual

A comprehensive computer program (SIMWEST) developed for the modeling of wind energy/storage systems utilizing any combination of five types of storage (pumped hydro, battery, thermal, flywheel, and pneumatic) is described. Features of the program include: a precompiler which generates computer models (in FORTRAN) of complex wind source/storage/application systems, from user specifications using the respective library components; a program which provides the techno-economic system analysis with the respective I/O the integration of system dynamics, and the iteration for conveyance of variables; and capability to evaluate economic feasibility as well as general performance of wind energy systems. The SIMWEST operation manual is presented and the usage of the SIMWEST program and the design of the library components are described. A number of example simulations intended to familiarize the user with the program's operation is given along with a listing of each SIMWEST library subroutine.

Warren, A. W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Tool Support for Parametric Analysis of Large Software Simulation Systems

The analysis of large and complex parameterized software systems, e.g., systems simulation in aerospace, is very complicated and time-consuming due to the large parameter space, and the complex, highly coupled nonlinear nature of the different system components. Thus, such systems are generally validated only in regions local to anticipated operating points rather than through characterization of the entire feasible operational envelope of the system. We have addressed the factors deterring such an analysis with a tool to support envelope assessment: we utilize a combination of advanced Monte Carlo generation with n-factor combinatorial parameter variations to limit the number of cases, but still explore important interactions in the parameter space in a systematic fashion. Additional test-cases, automatically generated from models (e.g., UML, Simulink, Stateflow) improve the coverage. The distributed test runs of the software system produce vast amounts of data, making manual analysis impossible. Our tool automatically analyzes the generated data through a combination of unsupervised Bayesian clustering techniques (AutoBayes) and supervised learning of critical parameter ranges using the treatment learner TAR3. The tool has been developed around the Trick simulation environment, which is widely used within NASA. We will present this tool with a GN&C (Guidance, Navigation and Control) simulation of a small satellite system.

Schumann, Johann↗

NASA NTRS2016

Threats to North American Forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption oflocal ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

risk↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BERT-E: An Earth Science Specific Language Model for Domain-Specific Downstream Tasks

Language models are fast approaching human-like understanding of natural language. They have been shown to perform equally, if not better than humans in a myriad of language tasks such as next sentence prediction, question answering, entity extraction etc. Part of the success of the models are owed to the fact that they have been trained on varied natural language text over the internet. By virtue of this, the models do not contain the semantic information present in Earth science literature. Hence, there is a lot of room for improvement when using these models for earth science specific tasks. In this work, we showcase our approach on developing Earth science specific language models. Furthermore, we justify the need for such a model by using the embeddings generated by the model to perform a domain specific downstream task that performs better than a generic model.

Prasanna Koirala↗

DOE OSTI2025

CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations

Overview The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model is an open-source geospatial python package that provides new power plant locations at a 1km resolution. The model ingests U.S. state or regional-scale electricity system capacity expansion plans, such as those produced by the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), and identifies feasible, site-specific locations for individual new power plants (renewable and non-renewable). CERF combines high-resolution geospatial suitability analyses with an economic algorithm that selects individual plant siting locations based on grid interconnection costs and the locational marginal value of new generation. The model incorporates a wide range of dynamic constraints and opportunities, such as protected lands, population density, existing infrastructure, and water availability. This dataset provides CERF power plant siting results for IM3 Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 CERF siting results in this dataset correspond to capacity expansion plans in the GCAM-USA IM3 Phase 2 simulation data and are available for each of the above scenarios. Data Details Temporal Range: 2015-2055 in 5-year timesteps. Note that 2015 is the experiment base year and 2020 and beyond represent model simulation years. Spatial Range: Plant locations are provided for the eleven states in the Western US including Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Spatial Resolution: 1 km-squared, provided in x and y coordinates Geospatial Projection: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) File Type: csv The dataset contains subdirectories for each of the eight scenarios described in the overview. Each scenario folder contains two subfolders with the following information: 1. Power Plant Data This directory contains a single .csv file of power plant locations for both pre-existing (non-CERF sited plants in operation in 2015) and new (CERF-sited) power plants across the temporal range along with additional CERF model output parameters for CERF-sited plants. Plant with a siting year earlier than 2020 correspond to facilities that are operational leading into the first timestep CERF simulation. For a more detailed description of CERF model output parameters, see the CERF model documentation. Note that the cerf_plant_id parameter is unique within each scenario file but not across scenario files. Parameter Descriptions scenario - Name of scenario cerf_plant_id - Unique siting identifier cerf_sited - If True, indicates that plant was sited by CERF model. If False, indicates pre-existing facility region_name - Name of region (state) tech_id - Technology ID tech_name - Full generation technology name inclusive of cooling type (if applicable) and additional characteristics tech_simple - Simplified generation technology type unit_size_mw - Power plant unit size (MW) xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) index - Index position in the flattend 2D array buffer_in_km - Exclusion buffer around site (km) sited_year - Year of siting retirement_year - Year of retirement lmp_zone - Locational marginal price (LMP) zone ID locational_marginal_price_usd_per_mwh - Locational marginal price ($/MWh) generation_mwh_per_year - Generation output (MWh/yr) operating_cost_usd_per_year - Cost of plant operations ($/yr) net_operational_value - Net operational value based on LMP and and operating costs ($/yr) interconnection_cost - Cost of interconnection for transmission & gas pipeline (if applicable) net_locational_cost -- Difference of interconnection cost and operating value ($/yr) capacity_factor_fraction - Capacity factor (fraction) carbon_capture_rate_fraction - Carbon capture rate (fraction) fuel_co2_content_tons_per_btu - Fuel CO2 content (tons/Btu) fuel_price_usd_per_mmbtu - Fuel price ($/MMBtu) fuel_price_esc_rate_fraction - Fuel price escalation rate (fraction) heat_rate_btu_per_kWh - Heat rate (Btu/kWh) lifetime_yrs - Technology lifetime for annuity (years) operational_life_yrs - Operational lifetime for retirement (years) variable_om_usd_per_mwh - Variable operation and maintenance costs of yearly capacity use ($/MWh) variable_om_esc_rate_fraction - Variable operation and maintenance costs escalation rate (fraction) carbon_tax_usd_per_ton - Carbon tax ($/ton) carbon_tax_esc_rate_fraction - Carbon tax escalation rate (fraction) 2. Storage Data This directory contains information on new and pre-existing energy storage facilities operational in each timestep along with various storage operational parameters. The 2015 timestep provides pre-existing energy storage data and corresponds with facilities that are operational leading into the first model simulation timestep. Note that coordinates in the storage files correspond to the interconnection point on the grid (substation location), not individual energy storage locations. Energy storage is added in a cumulative process at each given interconnection point. That is, each individual file provides the total operational storage capacity interconnected to the specified substation for the given timestep, inclusive of previously installed storage at that location and new storage installed in that timestep at that location. Parameters scenario - Name of scenario timestep - Simulation timestep name - Unique storage identifier s_typ - Type of energy storage technology (battery or pumped storage hydro) s_node - Node ID of interconnecting substation xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) charge_rate - Maximum charge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) discharge_rate - Maximum discharge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) duration - Duration of storage system (hours) max_SoC - Allowed maximum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) min_SoC -Allowed minimum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) charge_eff - Efficiency of charge (fraction between 0 and 1) discharge_eff - Efficiency of discharge (fraction between 0 and 1) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

CERF↗

DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗