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At least 1,621 records · Page 90
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Tanks-in-Series Approach to Estimate Parameters for Lithium-Ion Battery Models

Advanced Battery Management Systems (BMS) play a vital role in monitoring, predicting, and controlling the performance of lithium-ion batteries. BMS employing sophisticated electrochemical models can help increase battery cycle life and minimize charging time. However, in order to realize the full potential of electrochemical model-based BMS, it is critical to ensure accurate predictions and proper model parameterization. The accuracy of the predictions of an electrochemical model is dependent on the accuracy of its parameters, the values of which might change with battery cycling and aging. Parameter estimation for an electrochemical model is generally challenging due to the nonlinear nature and computational complexity of the model equations. To this end, this work utilizes the recently proposed Tanks-in-Series model for Li-ion batteries (J.Electrochem. Soc., 167, 013534 (2020)) to perform parameter estimation. The Tanks-in-Series approach allows for substantially faster parameter estimation compared to the original pseudo two-dimensional (p2D) model. The objective of this work is thus to demonstrate the gain in computational efficiency from the Tanks-in-Series approach. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is also performed to benchmark the fidelity of the Tanks-in-Series model.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrogenerate: Open Source Python Tool To Estimate Hydropower Generation Time-series

Hydropower is one of the most mature forms of renewable energy generation. The United States (US) has almost 103 GW of installed, with 80 GW of conventional generation and 23 GW of pumped hydropower [1]. Moreover, the potential for future development on Non-Powered Dams is up to 10 GW. With the US setting its goals to become carbon neutral [2], more renewable energy in the form of hydropower needs to be integrated with the grid. Currently, there are no publicly available tool that can estimate the hydropower potential for existing hydropower dams or other non-powered dams. The HydroGenerate is an open-source python library that has the capability of estimating hydropower generation based on flow rate either provided by the user or received from United States Geological Survey (USGS) water data services. The tool calculates the efficiency as a function of flow based on the turbine type either selected by the user or estimated based on the “head” provided by the user.

Mitra, Bhaskar↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate Model (PDIR) for High-Resolution, Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimation

Precipitation measurements with high spatiotemporal resolution are a vital input for hydrometeorological and water resources studies; decision-making in disaster management; and weather, climate, and hydrological forecasting. Moreover, real-time precipitation estimation with high precision is pivotal for the monitoring and managing of catastrophic hydroclimate disasters such as flash floods, which frequently transpire after extreme rainfall. While algorithms that exclusively use satellite infrared data as input are attractive owing to their rich spatiotemporal resolution and near-instantaneous availability, their sole reliance on cloud-top brightness temperature (T b ) readings causes underestimates in wet regions and overestimates in dry regions—this is especially evident over the western contiguous United States (CONUS). We introduce an algorithm, the Precipitation Estimations from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain rate model (PDIR), which utilizes climatological data to construct a dynamic (i.e., laterally shifting) T b –rain rate relationship that has several notable advantages over other quantitative precipitation-estimation algorithms and noteworthy skill over the western CONUS. Validation of PDIR over the western CONUS shows a promising degree of skill, notably at the annual scale, where it performs well in comparison to other satellite-based products. Analysis of two extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers show that solely IR-based PDIR performs reasonably well compared to other IR- and PMW-based satellite rainfall products, marking its potential to be effective in real-time monitoring of extreme storms. This research suggests that IR-based algorithms that contain the spatiotemporal richness and near-instantaneous availability needed for rapid natural hazards response may soon contain the skill needed for hydrologic and water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Ice Water Content for Winter Storms from Millimeter-Wavelength Radar Measurements Using a Synthesis of Polarimetric and Dual-Frequency Radar Observations

The potential of millimeter-wavelength radar-based ice water content (IWC) estimation is demonstrated using a Ka-band Scanning Polarimetric Radar (KASPR) for the U.S. northeast coast winter storms. Two IWC relations for Ka-band polarimetric radar measurements are proposed: one that uses a combination of the radar reflectivity Z and the estimated total number concentration of snow particles N t and the other based on the joint use of Z, specific differential phase K DP , and the degree of riming f rim . A key element of the algorithms is to obtain the “Rayleigh-equivalent” value of Z measured at the Ka band, i.e., the corresponding Z at a longer radar wavelength for which Rayleigh scattering takes place. This is achieved via polarimetric retrieval of the mean volume diameter D m and incorporating the relationship between the dual-wavelength ratio DWR S/Ka and D m . Those techniques allow for retrievals from single millimeter-wavelength radar measurements and do not necessarily require the dual-wavelength ratio (DWR) measurements, if the DWR–D m relation and Rayleigh assumption for Ka-band K DP are valid. Comparison between the quasivertical profile product obtained from KASPR and the columnar vertical profile product generated from the nearby WSR-88D S-band radar measurements demonstrates that the DWR S/Ka can be estimated from the two close radars without the need for collocated radar beams and synchronized antenna scanning and can be used for determining the Rayleigh-equivalent value of Z. As a result, the performance of the suggested techniques is evaluated for seven winter storms using surface disdrometer and snow accumulation measurements.

Cloud retrieval↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) of Snow Water Equivalent from the Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory

The upper Colorado River basin is the primary source of water for 40 million people. With declining snowpack in the basin, forecasting hydrological budgets in the Southwest United States is more important than ever. However, due in part, to a lack of reliable observations of precipitation in complex terrain, hydrological models struggle to assess and forecast snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE) in the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB). Therefore, the need for more reliable SWE forecasts in the UCRB motivated the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Facility’s Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) that occurred from June 2021 to June 2023. During SAIL, the X-band precipitation radar from Colorado State University conducted volume scans sampling the precipitation properties over the UCRB. The ARM facility developed a gridded Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) product from the radar observations. To do this, various daily SWE estimates from radar using the radar reflectivity factor Z e and specific differential phase K dp were compared against ground-based precipitation gauges. SWE in precipitation calculated from Wolfe and Snider’s S–Z e estimator was in best agreement with the rain gauges for the days when SWE < 12 mm. For days with SWE > 12 mm, the WSR-88D Intermountain West relationship had the best agreement with the precipitation gauges. Airborne snow depth observations show that SQUIRE captures regions of orographic enhancement in the mountains to the west and northwest of the SAIL study area, indicating that the scientific community should focus on understanding and ultimately simulating orographic atmospheric precipitation processes to improve UCRB snowpack SWE assessment and forecasting.

Hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating SHmax azimuth with P sources and vertical geophones: Use P-P reflection amplitudes or use SV-P reflection times?

We compared two methods for extracting the azimuth of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) from 3D land-based seismic data generated by a P source and recorded with vertical geophones. In the first method, we used the direct-SV mode that is produced by all land-based P sources. P sources generate SV illumination that radiates in all azimuth directions from a source station and creates SV-P reflections that are recorded by vertical geophones. Unless stratigraphy has steep dip, SV-P raypaths recorded by vertical geophones are the reverse of P-SV raypaths recorded by horizontal geophones. Thus, SV-P data provide the same S-wave sensitivity to stress fields as popular P-SV data do. In the second method, we retrieved P-P reflections and then performed an amplitude-variation-with-azimuth (AVA) analysis of the amplitude-gradient behavior of P-P reflection wavelets. We did this analysis in narrow azimuth corridors to determine the gradient of reflection-wavelet amplitudes as a function of azimuth. This P-P AVA amplitude-gradient method has been of great interest in the reflection seismology community since it was introduced in the late 1990s. Each of these methods, AVA analysis of the gradient of P-P reflection amplitudes and azimuth-dependent arrival times of SV-P reflections, can be used to determine the azimuth of SHmax stress. We compare the results of the two methods with ground truth measurements of SHmax azimuth at a CO 2 sequestration site in the Michigan Basin. SHmax azimuths were determined from P-P and SV-P data at three major boundaries at depths of approximately 3500 ft (1067 m), 5500 ft (1676 m), and 7500 ft (2286 m). Two estimates of SHmax azimuth (one using SV-P data and one using P-P data) were made at each stacking bin inside a 24 mi 2 (62 km 2 ) image space. The result was approximately 98,000 estimates of SHmax azimuth across each of these three boundaries for each of these two prediction strategies. Histogram displays of PP AVA gradient estimates had peaks at correct azimuths of SHmax at all three depths, but the spread of the distributions widened with depth and split into two peaks at the deepest boundary. In contrast, each histogram of SHmax azimuth predicted by azimuth-dependent SV-P traveltimes had a single, definitive peak that was positioned at the correct SHmax azimuth at all three boundary depths.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local models for scatter estimation and descattering in polyenergetic X-ray tomography

We propose a new modeling approach for scatter estimation and descattering in polyenergetic X-ray computed tomography (CT) based on fitting models to local neighborhoods of a training set. X-ray CT is widely used in medical and industrial applications. X-ray scatter, if not accounted for during reconstruction, creates a loss of contrast in CT reconstructions and introduces severe artifacts including cupping, shading, and streaks. Even when these qualitative artifacts are not apparent, scatter can pose a major obstacle in obtaining quantitatively accurate reconstructions. Our approach to estimating scatter is, first, to generate a training set of 2D radiographs with and without scatter using particle transport simulation software. To estimate scatter for a new radiograph, we adaptively fit a scatter model to a small subset of the training data containing the radiographs most similar to it. We compared local and global (fit on full data sets) versions of several X-ray scatter models, including two from the recent literature, as well as a recent deep learning-based scatter model, in the context of descattering and quantitative density reconstruction of simulated, spherically symmetrical, single-material objects comprising shells of various densities. Our results show that, when applied locally, even simple models provide state-of-the-art descattering, reducing the error in density reconstruction due to scatter by more than half.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving the Estimation of the Atmospheric Water Vapor Pressure Using Interpretable Long Short-Term Memory Networks: Dataset, Python code, and trained models

Atmospheric water vapor pressure is an essential meteorological control on land surface and hydrologic processes. It is not as frequently observed as other meteorologic conditions, but often inferred through the August–Roche–Magnus formula by simply assuming dew point and daily minimum temperatures are equivalent or by empirically correlating the two temperatures using an aridity correction. The performance of both methods varies considerably across different regions and during different time periods; obtaining consistently accurate estimates across space and time remains a great challenge. We applied an interpretable Long Short-Term Memory (iLSTM) network conditioned on static, location specific attributes to estimate daily vapor pressure for 83 FLUXNET sites in the United States and Canada. This data package includes all raw data of the 83 FLUXNET sites, input data for model training/validation/test, trained models and results, and python codes for the manuscript "Improving the Estimation of the Atmospheric Water Vapor Pressure Using an Interpretable Long Short-term Memory Network". Specifically, it consists of five parts. - First, "1_Daymet_data_83sites.zip" includes raw data downloaded from Daymet for the 83 sites used in the paper according to their longitude and latitude, in which vapor pressure is used. It also includes a pre-processed CSV data file combining all data from the 83 sites which is specifically used for the paper. - Second, "2_Fluxnet2015_data_83sites.zip" includes raw half hourly data of the 83 sites downloaded from FLUXNET2015 data portal, pre-processed daily data of the 83 sites, a CSV file including combined pre-processed daily data of the 83 sites, and a CSV file including the information (site ID, site name, latitude, longitude, data available period) of the 83 sites. - Third, "3_MODIS_LAI_data_83sites_raw.zip" includes raw leaf area index (LAI) data downloaded from the AppEEARs data portal. - Fourth, "4_Scripts.zip" includes all scripts related to model training and post-processing of a trained model, and a jupyter notebook showing an example for model post-processing. Two typo errors in files titled "run2get_args.py" and "postprocess.py" were corrected on March 27, 2024 to avoid confusions. - Finally, "Trained_models_and_results.zip" includes three folders and three files with suffix ".npy", and each folder corresponds to one file with suffix ".npy" with the same title. Each of the three folders include all trained models associated with one iLSTM model configuration (35 models for each configuration, details are described in the paper). Each file with suffix ".npy" includes the post-processed results of the corresponding 35 models under one iLSTM model configuration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data and scripts associated with the manuscript "Estimating soil moisture and salinity response to simulated coastal flooding using time-lapse electrical resistivity and induced polarization monitoring”

This package contains geophysics datasets generated during the simulated ecosystem-flooding experiment – TEMPEST (Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatment). These geophysics data consist of Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI) and Induced Polarization (IP) datasets collected to estimate the soil moisture and salinity response to the simulated coastal flooding experiment. In addition to using geophysics datasets to estimate soil moisture and salinity response, petrophysical relationship between the measured resistivity and moisture content and salinity using the multisalinity. This package consists of two folders: “MultiSalinity Experiment” folder and “TEMPEST Experiment and petrophysical conversion” folders. The “MultiSalinity Experiment” folder contains the datasets generated from the multisalinity experiment used to develop the petrophysical reslationship. The “TEMPEST Experiment and petrophysical conversion” folder contains ERI, IP, Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) and Electromagnetic Induction (EMI) datasets collected during the TEMPEST experiment. This study shows the ability to used geophysical datasets in estimating moisture content and salinity at scale will be useful in calibrating Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating soil thermal inertia profiles from the passive equilibration of a temperature probe: Supporting data and code

This dataset contains measurements of soil thermal properties and organic layer thickness at three field sites on the Seward Peninsula near Nome, Alaska, USA. Code is also provided for estimation of soil thermal properties from temperature data, including a forward heat transfer mode, a library of simulated temperature data, and an inversion scheme to retrieve thermal properties from temperature measurements (Lamb et al., 2025). This dataset and code is published in support of the manuscript “Estimating Soil Thermal Inertia Profiles from the Passive Equilibration of a Temperature Probe” by Lamb et al., 2025, in which an experimental thermal measurements technique is developed. The dataset contains measurements of soil thermal properties and organic layer thickness obtained with an industry standard thermal properties analyzer and direct observations, as well as data generated using the experimental technique to estimate thermal properties and soil structure from temperature observations. All data is reported in .csv format, and all code is written in Python 3.7 using standard packages. This research was performed as a part of the NGEE Arctic project, which aims to advance model predictions of arctic carbon cycle responses to a changing climate over the 21st Century.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evapotranspiration partitioning estimates from 8 methods from 47 NEON sites, 2019-2021

This dataset provides daily estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) and the transpiration-to-evapotranspiration ratio (T/ET) across 47 terrestrial National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites spanning diverse environmental and biome conditions in the United States across three years of data (2019-2021). Daily ET is reported in both energy units (MJ m⁻² day⁻¹) and equivalent water depth (mm day⁻¹), assuming a constant latent heat of vaporization of 2.45 MJ/kg. The primary method uses a hybrid recurrent neural network–Penman–Monteith framework (RNN-PM), which integrates physically based surface energy balance constraints with data-driven learning to partition ET into transpiration and evaporation components. Model inputs include in situ meteorological observations (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, wind speed, and radiation) combined with satellite-derived land surface temperature, leaf area index, and soil moisture. For benchmarking and uncertainty assessment, T/ET estimates from seven additional models are included: Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL), Penman-Monteith (P-M), Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), among others—spanning empirical, machine-learning, and process-based approaches (see methods section or linked publication for detailed descriptions). Data Package Contents: The dataset a csv files containing daily ET and T/ET estimates for each site and model, along with associated metadata files these variables. Data can be accessed using common spreadsheet software (e.g., Microsoft Excel, LibreOffice) or programming environments such as R or Python. Together, these data support cross-site comparisons of ecosystem water use, evaluation of ET partitioning methods, and development of improved land–atmosphere exchange models.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Effect of Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) Test on Radiation Risk Estimate for Prostate Cancer Incidence among Atomic-Bomb Survivors

Following our previous report on the radiation doseresponse for prostate cancer incidence rates in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors, we reevaluated the radiation-related risk adjusting for differences in baseline cancer incidence rates among three subsets of the LSS cohort defined by the timing of their first participation in biennial health examinations offered to the Adult Health Study (AHS) sub-cohort members and prostate-specificantigen (PSA) testing status for AHS participants: 1. nonAHS participants, 2. AHS participants before receiving PSA test, and 3. AHS participants after receiving PSA test. We found a 2.9-fold increase in the baseline incidence rates among AHS participants after receiving PSA test. After adjusting for the PSA-testing-status effects on the baseline rates the estimated excess relative risk (ERR) per Gy was 0.54 (95% CI: 0.15, 1.05), which was almost identical to the previously reported unadjusted ERR estimate (0.57, 95% CI: 0.21, 1.00). The current results confirmed that, while the PSA testing among AHS participants increased the baseline incidence rates, it did not impact the radiation risk estimate, strengthening the previously reported dose-response relationship for prostate cancer incidence in the LSS. As the use of PSA tests continue in screening and medical settings, analyses of possible effects of PSA testing should be an important aspect of future epidemiological studies of the association between radiation exposure and prostate cancer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seismoacoustic Explosion Yield and Depth Estimation: Insights from the Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment

The Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) is a chemical explosion experiment conducted in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Security Site in 2020. The experiment included two surface detonations of ~1000 kg trinitrotoluene equivalent. The main goal of this experiment was to provide the ground-truth data for seismoacoustic wave excitation by large chemical explosions near the ground surface. The seismic and acoustic energy partitioning between the surface is strongly governed by the depth or height of explosions, and either seismic or acoustic-only analysis may have inherent ambiguity in determining explosion yield and depth simultaneously. Previous studies suggested that joint seismoacoustic analysis can resolve the trade-off and reduce the uncertainty of yield and depth estimation dramatically. Here we demonstrate the capability of seismoacoustic analysis to improve the accuracy of explosion yield and depth estimation with the LSECE data. Local acoustic wave propagation in the atmosphere can be substantially affected by constantly varying weather conditions. Consisting of two detonations before dawn and in the afternoon, LSECE provides unique data to evaluate the model accuracy of acoustic wave propagation and seismoacoustic energy partitioning depending on local atmospheric conditions. We quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of yield and depth estimation depending on atmospheric variability and the improvement achieved by the joint seismoacoustic approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Back-Azimuth Estimation of Air-to-Ground Coupled Infrasound from Transverse Coherence Minimization

We present the transverse coherence minimization method (TCM)—an approach to estimate the back–azimuth of infrasound signals that are recorded on an infrasound microphone and a colocated three–component seismometer. Accurate back–azimuth information is important for a variety of monitoring efforts, but it is currently only available for infrasound arrays and for seismoacoustic sensor pairs separated by 10 s of meters. Our TCM method allows for the analysis of colocated sensor pairs, sensors located within a few meters of each other, which may extend the capabilities of existing seismoacoustic networks and supplement operating infrasound arrays. This approach minimizes the coherence of the transverse component of seismic displacement with the infrasound wave to estimate the infrasound back–azimuth. After developing an analytical model, we investigate seismoacoustic signals from the August 2012 Humming Roadrunner experiment and the 26 May 2021 eruption of Great Sitkin Volcano, Alaska, U.S.A., at the ranges of 6.5–185 km from the source. We discuss back–azimuth estimates and potential sources of deviation (1°–15°), such as local terrain effects or deviation from common analytical models. This practical method complements existing seismoacoustic tools and may be suitable for routine application to signals of interest.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automatic Calibration of a Geomechanical Model from Sparse Data for Estimating Stress in Deep Geological Formations

Summary In this study, we demonstrate geomechanical modeling with fully automatic parameter calibration to estimate the full geomechanical stress fields of a prospective US carbon dioxide (CO2) storage site, based on sparse measurement data. The goal is to compute full stress tensor field estimates (principal stresses and orientations) that are maximally compatible with observations within the constraints of the model assumptions, thereby extending pointwise, incomplete partial stress measurement to a simulated full formation stress field, as well as a rough assessment of the associated error. We use the Perch site, located in Otsego County, Michigan, USA, as our case study. The input data consist of partial stress tensor information inferred from in-situ borehole tests, geophysical well logs, and processing of seismic data. A static earth model (SEM) of the site was developed, and geomechanical simulation functionality of the open-source MATLAB Reservoir Simulation Toolbox (MRST) was used to model the stress field. Adjoint-based nonlinear optimization was used to adjust boundary conditions and material properties to calibrate simulated results of observations. Results were interpreted through a Bayesian framework. The focus of this paper is to demonstrate how the fully automatic calibration procedure works and discuss the results obtained; it does not attempt a detailed analysis of the stress field in the context of the proposed CO2 storage initiatives. Our work is part of a larger effort to noninvasively determine in-situ stresses in deep formations considered for CO2 storage. Guided by previously published research on geomechanical model calibration, our work presents a novel calibration approach supporting a potentially large number of linear or nonlinear calibration parameters to produce results optimally agreeing with available measurements and thus extend partial pointwise estimates to full tensor fields compatible with the physics of the site.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2020

ENERGY STAR for Tenants: An Online Energy Estimation Tool for Commercial Office Building Tenants

The commercial building sector consumes over 18% of the total energy in the United States. According to the 2012 Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), office buildings comprise nearly 16 billion square feet of floor space and consume 253 billion kWh of energy annually. Office buildings represent nearly one-fifth of the energy consumed by commercial buildings, more than any other building type. Therefore, monitoring and reducing energy consumption in office buildings has become an increasingly important focus across the United States. The goal of the ENERGY STAR for Tenants program is to recognize office building tenants who demonstrate commitment to energy efficiency and environmental stewardship. Tenants seeking recognition must complete five major steps: estimate energy use, meter energy use, use efficient lighting, use efficient equipment, and share data. NREL is responsible for the underlying analysis performed for step one, estimating energy use. An online survey was developed for tenants to input information about their office space and its internal loads. NREL performed a parametric analysis across a large parameter space of office buildings. The analysis results were processed to map the user inputs to output energy ranges. The mappings enable the web tool to provide users with instant energy usage estimates based on a limited number of inputs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discrete Fracture Network Modeling to Estimate Upscaled Parameters for the Topopah Spring, Lava Flow, and Tiva Canyon Aquifers at Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

This report describes the results of Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) simulations for the Topopah Spring Aquifer (TSA), Lava Flow Aquifer, and Tiva Canyon Aquifer (TCA), at Pahute Mesa on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), formerly the Nevada Test Site. The research focuses on calculating upscaled groundwater flow and contaminant transport parameters using DFNs generated according to fracture characteristics observed in the TSA, LFA and TCA at Pahute Mesa. The highly fractured and heterogeneous nature of these aquifers makes them candidates for stochastic DFN modeling of radionuclide transport on a small scale with subsequent upscaling. One hundred independent DFN realizations are generated for each aquifer, and the upscaled parameters for continuum simulations of subsurface flow and transport in fractured media at Pahute Mesa are calculated. Our goal is to implement a modeling approach that can translate parameters to larger-scale models that account for local-scale flow and transport processes, such as channelization of flow and transport along a few well connected, large fractures. Additionally, to simulate advective and advective-diffusive transport through the fracture networks, the Time Domain Random Walk (TDRW) approach is applied to account for matrix diffusion into a finite half-space. Moreover, a novel approach to calculate dynamic (active) fracture surface area to reflect flow channeling is implemented. This work will improve the representation of radionuclide transport processes in largescale, regulatory-focused models by providing estimates of hard-to-measure flow and contaminant transport parameters at large scales. In this report, we (1) show recent results of flow and transport simulations on multiple DFN realizations of the TSA, LFA, TCA; (2) discuss the resulting distributions of estimated upscaled parameters; (3) describe the estimation of upscaled parameters for an equivalent parallel-plate continuum model and (4) present a comparison between simulated transport from the equivalent continuum model and an actual DFN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗